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Off - Balance Sheet Activities Drake Fin 129 DRAKE UNIVERSITY Off balance sheet activities Drake Drake University Fin 129 Contingent assets or liabilities that impact the future of the Financial Institutions balance sheet and solvency. Claim moves to the asset or liability side of the balance sheet respectively IF a given event occurs. Often reported in footnotes or not reported buried elsewhere in financial statements OBS examples Drake Drake University Fin 129 Derivatives -- Value or worth is based upon Basic Examples -- Futures, Options, and Swaps Other examples -- standby letters of credit and other performance guarantees Large Derivative Losses Drake Drake University Fin 129 1994 Procter and Gamble sue bankers trust over derivative losses and receive $200 million. 1995 Barings announces losses of $1.38 Billion related to derivatives trading of Nick Lesson NatWest Bank finds losses of $77 Million pounds caused by mispricing of derivatives Large Derivative Losses Drake Drake University Fin 129 1997 Damian Cope, Midland Bank, is banned by federal reserve over falsification of records relating to derivative losses 1997 Chase Manhattan lost $200 million on trading in emerging market debt derivative instruments LTCM exposure of $1.25 trillion in derivatives rescued by consortium of bankers Use of option pricing Drake Drake University Fin 129 One way to measure the risk of a contingent liability is to use option pricing. Delta of an option = the sensitivity of an options value to Options Drake Drake University Fin 129 Call Option – the right to buy an asset at some point in the future for a designated price. Put Option – the right to sell an asset at some point in the future at a given price Call Option Profit Drake Drake University Fin 129 Call option – as the price of the asset increases the option is more profitable. Once the price is above the exercise price (strike price) the option will be exercised If the price of the underlying asset is below the exercise price it won’t be exercised – you only loose the cost of the option. The Profit earned is equal to the gain or loss on the option minus the initial cost. Drake Profit Diagram Call Option Profit S-X-C S Cost X Spot Price Drake University Fin 129 Call Option Intrinsic Value Drake Drake University Fin 129 The intrinsic value of a call option is equal to the current value of the underlying asset minus the exercise price if exercised or 0 if not exercised. In other words, it is the payoff to the investor at that point in time (ignoring the initial cost) the intrinsic value is equal to max(0, S-X) Drake Payoff Diagram Call Option Payoff S-X X X S Spot Price Drake University Fin 129 Put Option Profits Drake Drake University Fin 129 Put option – as the price of the asset decreases the option is more profitable. Once the price is below the exercise price (strike price) the option will be exercised If the price of the underlying asset is above the exercise price it won’t be exercised – you only loose the cost of the option. Profit Diagram Put Option Profit X-S-C Spot Price S Cost X Drake Drake University Fin 129 Put Option Intrinsic Value Drake Drake University Fin 129 The intrinsic value of a put option is equal to exercise price minus the current value of the underlying asset if exercised or 0 if not exercised. In other words, it is the payoff to the investor at that point in time (ignoring the initial cost) the intrinsic value is equal to max(X-S, 0) Payoff Diagram Put Option Profit X-S S Cost X Spot Price Drake Drake University Fin 129 Pricing an Option Drake Drake University Fin 129 Black Scholes Option Pricing Model Based on a European Option with no dividends Assumes that the prices in the equation are lognormal. Inputs you will need S = Current value of underlying asset X = Exercise price t = life until expiration of option r = riskless rate s2 = variance Drake Drake University Fin 129 PV and FV in continuous time Drake Drake University Fin 129 e = 2.71828 y = lnx x = ey FV = PV (1+k)n for yearly compounding FV = PV(1+k/m)nm for m compounding periods per year As m increases this becomes FV = PVern =PVert let t =n rearranging for PV PV = FVe-rt Black Scholes Drake Drake University Value of Call Option = SN(d1)-Xe-rtN(d2) S = Current value of underlying asset X = Exercise price t = life until expiration of option r = riskless rate s2 = variance N(d ) = the cumulative normal distribution (the probability that a variable with a standard normal distribution will be less than d) Fin 129 Drake Black Scholes (Intuition) Drake University Fin 129 Value of Call Option SN(d1) - Xe-rt N(d2) The expected PV of cost Risk Neutral Value of S of investment Probability of if S > X S>X Drake Black Scholes Drake University Fin 129 Value of Call Option = SN(d1)-Xe-rtN(d2) Where: ln( S ) (r s )t X 2 d1 s t 2 d 2 d1 s t Delta of an option Drake Drake University Fin 129 Intuitively a higher stock price should lead to a higher call price. The relationship between the call price and the stock price is expressed by a single variable, delta. The delta is the change in the call price for a Delta Drake Drake University Fin 129 Delta can be found from the call price equation as: Using delta hedging for a short position in a European call option would require Delta explanation Drake Drake University Fin 129 Delta will be between 0 and 1. A 1 cent change in the price of the underlying asset leads to a change of Applying Delta Drake Drake University Fin 129 The value of the contingent value is simply: delta x Face value of the option If Delta = .25 and The value of the option = $100 million then Contingent asset value = $25 million OBS Options Drake Drake University Fin 129 Loan commitments and credit lines basically represent an option to borrow (essentially a call option) When the buyer of a guaranty defaults, the buyer is exercising a default option. Adjusting Delta Drake Drake University Fin 129 Delta is at best an approximation for the nonlinear relationship between the price of the option and the underlying security. Delta changes as the value of the underlying security changes. This change is measure by the gamma of the option. Gamma can be used to adjust the delta to better approximate the change in the option price. Gamma of an Option Drake Drake University Fin 129 The change in delta for a small change in the stock price is called the options gamma: Call gamma = e d 12 / 2 Ss 2T Futures and Swaps Drake Drake University Fin 129 Some OBS activities are not as easily approximated by option pricing. Futures, Forward arrangements and swaps are generally priced by looking at the equivalent value of the underlying asset. For example: Impact on the balance sheet Drake Drake University Fin 129 Start with a traditional simple balance sheet Since assets = liabilities + equity it is easy to find the value of equity Equity = Assets - Liabilities Example: Asset = 150 Liabilities = 125 Equity = 150 - 125 = 25 Simple Balance Sheet Assets Market Value of Assets 150 Total 150 Drake Drake University Fin 129 Liabilities Market Value of Liabilities 125 Equity (net worth) 25 Total 150 Contingent Assets and Liabilities Drake Drake University Fin 129 Assume that the firm has contingent assets of 50 and contingent liabilities of 60. Simple Balance Sheet Drake Drake University Fin 129 MV of Contingent Assets Liabilities Market Value of Liabilities 125 Equity (net worth) MV of contingent Liabilities Total 200 Total 200 Assets Market Value of Assets 150 Reporting OBS Activities Drake Drake University Fin 129 In 1983 the Fed Res started requiring banks to file a schedule L as part of their quarterly call report. Schedule L requires institutions to report the notional size and distribution of their OBS activities. Growth in OBS activity Drake Drake University Fin 129 Total OBS commitments and contingencies for US commercial banks had a notional value of $10,200 billion in 1992 by 2000 this value had increased 376% to $46,529 billion! For comparison in 1992 the notional value of on balance sheet items was $3,476.4 billion which grew to $6,238 billion by 2000 or growth of 79% Growth in OBS activities Billions of $ Drake Drake University Fin 129 1992 1996 2000 Futures & Forwards $4,780 $8,041 $9,877 Swaps 2,417 7,601 21,949 Options 1,568 4,393 8,292 Credit Derivatives 426 Common OBS Securities Loan commitments Standby letters of Credit Futures, Forwards, and Swaps When Issues Securities Loans Sold Drake Drake University Fin 129 Loan commitments Drake Drake University Fin 129 79% of all commercial and industrial lending takes place via commitment contracts Loan Commitment -- contractual commitment by the FI to loan up to a maximum amount to a firm over a defined period of time at a set interest rate. Loan commitment Fees Drake Drake University Fin 129 The FI charges a front end fee based upon the maximum value of the loan (maybe 1/8th of a percent) and a back end fee at the end of the commitment on any unused balance. (1/4 of a %). The firm can borrow up to the maximum amount at any point in time over the life of the commitment Loan Commitment Risks Drake Drake University Fin 129 Interest rate risk -- The FI precommits to an interest rate (either fixed or variable), the level of rates may change over the commitment period. If rates increase, cost of funds may not be covered and firms more likely to borrow. Variable rates do not eliminate the risk due to basis risk Loan Commitment Risks Drake Drake University Fin 129 Takedown Risk -- Feb 2002 - Tyco International was shut out of commercial paper market and it drew down $14.4 billion loan commitments made by major banks. Loan Commitment Risk Drake Drake University Fin 129 Credit Risk -- the firm may default on the loan after it takes advantage of the commitment. The credit worthiness of the borrower may change during the commitment period without compensation for the lender. Loan Commitment Risk Drake Drake University Fin 129 Aggregate Funding Risks -- Many borrowers view loan commitment as insurance against credit crunches. If a credit crunch occurs (restrictive monetary policy or a simple downturn in economy) Letters of Credit Drake Drake University Fin 129 Commercial Letters of credit - A formal guaranty that payment will be made for goods purchased even if the buyer defaults The idea is to underwrite the common trade of the firm providing a safety net for the seller and facilitating the sale of the goods. Used both domestically and internationally Letter of Credit Drake Drake University Fin 129 Standby letters of credit -- Letters of credit contingent upon a given event that is less predicable than standard letters of credit cover. Examples may be guaranteeing completion of a real estate development in a given period of time or backing commercial paper to increase credit quality. Future and Forward contracts Drake Drake University Fin 129 Both Futures and Forward contracts are contracts entered into by two parties who agree to buy and sell a given commodity or asset (for example a T- Bill) at a specified point of time in the future at a set price. Futures vs. Forwards Drake Drake University Fin 129 Future contracts are traded on an exchange, Forward contracts are privately negotiated over-the-counter arrangements between two parties. Both set a price to be paid in the future for a specified contract. Forward Contracts are subject to counter party default risk, The futures exchange attempts to limit or eliminate the amount of counter party default risk. Forwards vs. Futures Forward Contracts Private contract between two parties Not Standardized Usually a single delivery date Drake Drake University Fin 129 Futures Contracts Traded on an exchange Standardized Range of delivery dates Settled at the end of contract Settled daily Delivery or final cash settlement usually takes place Contract is usually closed out prior to maturity Options and Swaps Drake Drake University Fin 129 Sold in the over the counter market both can be used to manage interest rate risk. Forward Purchases of When Issued Securities Drake Drake University Fin 129 A commitment to purchase a security prior to its actual issue date. Examples include the commitment to buy new treasury bills made in the week prior to their issue. Loans Sold Drake Drake University Fin 129 Loans sold provide a means of reducing risk for the FI. If the loan is sold with no recourse the FI does not have an OBS contingency for the FI. Settlement Risk Drake Drake University Fin 129 Intraday credit risk associated with the Clearing House Interbank Transfer Payments System (CHIPS). Payment messages sent on CHIPS are provisional messages that become final and settled at the end of the day usually via reserve accounts at the Fed. Settlement Risk Drake Drake University Fin 129 When it receives a commitment the FI may loan out the funds prior to the end of the day on the assumption that the actual transfer of funds will occur accepting a settlement risk. Since the Balance sheet is at best closed a the end of the day, Affiliate Risk Drake Drake University Fin 129 Risk of one holding company affiliate failing and impacting the other affiliate of the holding company. Since the two affiliates are operationally they are the same entity even thought they are separate entities under the holding company structure Swaps Introduction Drake Drake University Fin 129 An agreement between two parties to exchange cash flows in the future. The agreement specifies the dates that the cash flows are to be paid and the way that they are to be calculated. A forward contract is an example of a simple swap. With a forward contract, the result is an exchange of cash flows at a single given date in the future. In the case of a swap the cash flows occur at several dates in the future. In other words, you can think of a swap as a portfolio of forward contracts. Mechanics of Swaps Drake Drake University Fin 129 The most common used swap agreement is an exchange of cash flows based upon a fixed and floating rate. Often referred to a “plain vanilla” swap, the agreement consists of one party paying a fixed interest rate on a notional principal amount in exchange for the other party paying a floating rate on the same notional principal amount for a set period of time. In this case the currency of the agreement is the same for both parties. Notional Principal Drake Drake University Fin 129 The term notional principal implies that the principal itself is not exchanged. If it was exchanged at the end of the swap, the exact same cash flows would result. An Example Drake Drake University Fin 129 Company B agrees to pay A 5% per annum on a notional principal of $100 million Company A Agrees to pay B the 6 month LIBOR rate prevailing 6 months prior to each payment date, on $100 million. (generally the floating rate is set at the beginning of the period for which it is to be paid) The Fixed Side Drake Drake University Fin 129 We assume that the exchange of cash flows should occur each six months (using a fixed rate of 5% compounded semi annually). Company B will pay: Drake Summary of Cash Flows for Firm B Date 3-1-98 9-1-98 3-1-99 9-1-99 3-1-00 9-1-00 3-1-01 LIBOR 4.2% 4.8% 5.3% 5.5% 5.6% 5.9% 6.4% Cash Flow Received 2.10 2.40 2.65 2.75 2.80 2.95 Drake University Fin 129 Cash Flow Net Paid Cash Flow 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 -0.4 -0.1 0.15 0.25 0.30 0.45 Swap Diagram Company A Drake Drake University Fin 129 Company B Offsetting Spot Position Drake Drake University Fin 129 Assume that A has a commitment to borrow at a fixed rate of 5.2% and that B has a commitment to borrow at a rate of LIBOR + .8% Company A Borrows (pays) Pays Receives Net Company B Borrows (pays) LIBOR+.8% Receives Pays Net Swap Diagram 5.2% Company A Company B Drake Drake University Fin 129 LIBOR+.8% The swap in effect transforms a fixed rate liability or asset to a floating rate liability or asset (and vice versa) for the firms respectively. Role of Intermediary Drake Drake University Fin 129 Usually a financial intermediary works to establish the swap by bring the two parties together. The intermediary then earns .03 to .04% per annum in exchange for arranging the swap. Drake Swap Diagram 5.2% LIBOR Co A 4.985% Drake University Fin 129 LIBOR FI 5.015% Co B LIBOR+.8% Why enter into a swap? Drake Drake University Fin 129 The Comparative Advantage Argument Fixed Floating A 10% 6 mo LIBOR+.3 B 11.2% 6 mo LIBOR + 1.0% Drake Swap Diagram 10% LIBOR Co A 9.935% Drake University Fin 129 LIBOR FI 9.965% Co B LIBOR+1% Managing Cash Flows Drake Drake University Fin 129 Assume that an insurance firm sold an annuity lasting 5 years and paying 5 Million each year. To offset the cash outflows they invest in a 10 year security that pays $6 million each year. The firm runs a reinvestment risk when they stop paying the cash outflows on the annuity – a combination of swaps could eliminate this risk (on board in class) OBS Benefits Drake Drake University Fin 129 We have concentrated on the risk associated with OBS activities, however many of the positions are designed to reduce other risks in the FI.