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Fiscal Adjustment and Public Investment: Experiences from the New Member States and Some Preliminary Policy Lessons March 23, 2007 Gerd Schwartz Expenditure Policy Division; Fiscal Affairs Department, International Monetary Fund [email protected] 1 Background o Challenges for fiscal policy in NMS Support growth & convergence through higher investment Implement structural reforms under Acquis Communitaire Make room for increasing pressures from age-related expenditures Carry out fiscal adjustment to comply with SGP targets and enter the Euro zone. 2 Three key topics o Impact of fiscal adjustment on public investment o Infrastructure in NMS o Role of new financing mechanisms EU Funds PPPs 3 Public investment: The silent victim of fiscal adjustment? o Sizable fiscal adjustment in some countries; volatile fiscal performance in others Estonia Slovakia 7 4 60 14 6 3 50 12 5 2 40 4 1 3 0 10 8 30 6 2 -1 20 1 -2 10 2 -3 0 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Hungary 64 62 60 58 56 54 52 50 48 46 9 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 4 46 Poland 44 Public debt (LHS) Fiscal deficit (RHS) 5 4 42 40 3 38 2 36 1 34 32 0 1998 1999 2000 20012002 2003 2004 2005 4 Public investment: The silent victim of fiscal adjustment? o Among NMS, during 1998-2005, there were 38 occurrences of improvements in the fiscal balance o Out of these 38 occurrences... 68% cut in non-investment expenditure (2 percent of GDP) 45% cut in investment expenditure (0.5 percent of GDP) 50% increase in revenue (1 percent of GDP) 5 Public investment: The silent victim of fiscal adjustment? o Overall, mixed experience. Investment even rose during fiscal adjustment in some countries Estonia 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 -2 -3 Slovakia 14 12 4 10 8 3 6 2 4 1 2 0 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Latvia 6 5 Public investment Fiscal deficit Lithuania 4 5 4 3 3 2 2 1 0 -1 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 1 6 0 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 Infrastructure: Where do NMS stand? o Significant progress since the start of the transition o But infrastructure still lags behind standards in OMS Infrastructure Indicators, 1991-2002 (per 1,000 people) Electricity generation (kwh) Fixed and mobile phone subscribers Road networks (km) 1991-1995 1998-2002 1991-1995 1998-2002 1991-1995 1998-2002 Baltic states CEEs Bulgaria and Romania 4.5 4.6 3.5 4.1 5.3 3.7 247.5 185.0 199.5 587.0 687.0 391.3 7.7 5.6 3.7 16.8 8.6 4.4 EU-12 Average 5.5 6.5 473.1 1119.1 11.1 15.4 Source: The World Bank (2005) World Development Indicators Database; and staff estimates. 7 Infrastructure: How much investment is needed? o Few estimates available. Not easy to provide concrete policy guideline at the country level Infrastructure Investment Needs of NMS, 1995-2010 Sector Roads Railways Telecoms Water/Sewage Energy Environment Sum in € billion 44 37 63 180 110 71 505 Source: Brenck and others (2005). 8 Infrastructure: Policy options to increase investment Private Investment Public Investment Short- to Medium-Term Use PPPs. Provide government guarantees. Reallocate public expenditure. Implement tax policy measures. Relax fiscal targets, financed by debt or the sale of state assets. Medium- to Long-Term Implement improvements in market-supporting institutions. Deepen financial markets. Carry out structural reforms to help reduce current expenditure. Improve tax administration and expenditure management systems to enhance efficiency. Source: IMF (2005). 9 Infrastructure: Policy options to increase investment o Appropriate strategy country specific o Room to strengthen investment planning and efficiency o Contingent on fiscal and macroeconomic environment More flexibility in countries with stronger fiscal positions Need higher public savings in countries facing imbalances (e.g., current spending reforms) 10 New available financing: Challenges to use EU Funds o Co-financing and additionality o Net fiscal impact could be negative Recent estimate: fiscal drag of 0.5 percent of GDP1 o Absorption has been relatively slow Crucial given increasing size of EU Funds o Changes in spending allocations can be expected 1/ Source: Rosenberg and Sierhej (forthcoming) 11 New available financing: Challenges to use PPPs o PPPs can bring efficiency gains but also carry fiscal risks o How ready is the institutional framework in the NMS? Public investment planning: Generally weak frameworks; lack of use of CBA and VfM analysis Legal and institutional framework: Legal frameworks not tailored to PPPs; inadequate role of MoF in PPP process; insufficient technical experience Fiscal accounting and reporting: Lax standards; nontransparent disclosure of fiscal implications of PPPs 12 Concluding remarks o Overall mixed experience regarding fiscal adjustment and public investment o Upgrading infrastructure will require further efforts, but budgets will remain tight given SGP targets and Euro adoption goals o Making room for public investment not linked to definitions or accounting but to country specific policies based on sustainable macroeconomic frameworks o Scope to strengthen efficiency of spending 13 Concluding remarks o New financing presents opportunities and challenges EU Funds: Net fiscal impact could be negative; absorption rates remain low PPPs: Need to strengthen PPP frameworks to capitalize on efficiency gains and manage fiscal risks 14 Thank you Gerd Schwartz [email protected] +1-202-623-7308 Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this presentation are those of the author and do not necessarily represent those of the IMF or IMF policy. 15