The Evolution and Determinants of the Turkish Saving Rate
... and “consumer confidence” remained stronger for longer, but these indicators reflected the current appetite
to buy durable goods as well as the current financial situation of respondents, rather than purely
expectations of the future. Similarly, expectations for employment (naturally, the major sour ...
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2015 to 2025 - Agri
... Unless otherwise indicated, all years referred to in describing the budget outlook are federal
fiscal years (which run from October 1 to September 30), and years referred to in describing
the economic outlook are calendar years.
Numbers in the text and tables may not add up to totals because of roun ...
The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2014 to 2024
... Beginning in 2018, CBO’s projections of GDP are based
not on forecasts of cyclical movements in the economy
but on projections of trends in the factors that underlie
potential output, including total hours worked by labor,
capital services (the flow of services available for production from the nati ...
... through the well-known process of capital accumulation. Improved national saving provides funding for a country to take
advantage of more and larger investment opportunities. This in turn increases the capital stock, which if used effectively for
economic production pushes up growth in output. Altho ...
Office for Budget Responsibility Economic and fiscal outlook Cm 9419
... Meanwhile, we were also scrutinising the costing of tax and spending measures that were
being considered for announcement in the Budget. The BRC requested a number of changes to
the draft costings prepared by HMRC, DWP and other departments. We have endorsed all the
tax and annually managed expendit ...
Savings Working Group - New Zealand Treasury
... In the time available it required an intense effort and I thank everyone who contributed to it, in
particular, the members of this Group and its secretariat.
The Report presents well-considered, robust and, where necessary, pragmatic views on economic
policy and saving issues which we consider merit ...
European Economic Forecast Spring 2017
... In spite of the positive growth momentum, the economic recovery in the euro area remains incomplete.
While private consumption has revived, investment is still relatively weak, held back by modest sales
expectations, ongoing deleveraging and uncertainty. Weak investment dampens demand in the near te ...
Economic and fiscal outlook
... year of what is projected to be a 10-year fiscal consolidation. Relative to GDP, the budget
deficit has been halved to date, thanks primarily to lower departmental spending (both
current and capital) and lower welfare spending. The tax-to-GDP ratio his risen little since
2009-10. Looking forward, th ...
Office for Budget Responsibility: Economic and fiscal outlook Cm 9153
... The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) was established in 2010 to provide independent and
authoritative analysis of the UK’s public finances.
In this Economic and fiscal outlook (EFO) we set out forecasts to 2020-21. We also assess whether
the Government is on course to meet the medium-term fisc ...
Budget Paper No. 1 2015-16
... The outlook for the Australian economy remains positive. Historically low interest
rates, a lower oil price and a lower exchange rate are all working together to support
strengthening economic growth.
Global economic conditions are also supporting growth in the Australian economy.
The recovery in th ...
Budget Paper No.1: Budget Strategy and Outlook
... Together the changes to superannuation and the ten year enterprise tax plan will boost
the economy whilst improving sustainability and integrity.
The superannuation changes will improve the sustainability, flexibility and integrity of
the superannuation system. Superannuation tax concessions will be ...
... stabilization and reforms achieved after the recovery from 1980s “lost
decade”. The average national saving rate for the region as a whole has
not surpassed the modest 20%-23% rates observed in the 1960s and
1970s and the divergence with more developed regions and East Asia
has continued to widen. I ...
Economic Reform Programme for the Period 2017-2019
... to 1.7%. Inflation in 2016 will be 0.2% as previously forecast. For 2018 and 2019, the ECB
forecast the euro area growth of 1.6% each, with inflation of 1.5% and 1.7%, respectively.
Additionally, the decision was made to continue with the Asset Purchase Programme until the end
of 2017, with the redu ...
Saving in New Zealand - Issues and Options
... A package based on some of the options outlined in this report could, over the long-term, be
expected to improve New Zealand’s national saving which would, in turn, diminish the risk of
any future downturn in investor confidence.
This suggests the following continuum of policy choices.
Higher saving ...
IMF-Supported Macroeconomic Policies and the World Recession: A
... recommended macroeconomic policies during the course of the current world recession. In a panel
discussion held on June 19, 2009, there was disagreement between the IMF and CEPR over whether
or to what extent the IMF has supported pro-cyclical policies in borrowing countries during the
current world ...
European Economic Forecast
... GDP growth in the EU picked up again towards the end of 2014. Survey indicators and recent hard data
suggest that the momentum is continuing, underpinned by three factors that boost GDP growth in the
short run. Firstly, the sharp fall in oil prices has increased real household income and boosted con ...
... or simply territories for which statistical data are maintained on a separate and independent basis.
The word “dollars” refers to United States dollars, unless otherwise specified.
The following symbols have been used in the tables shown in the Survey: Three dots (…) indicate that data are not avail ...
NBER WORKING PAPER SERIES Philippe Aghion
... 3 A higher market size today, has two counteracting e¤ects on investment composition. On the one hand it encourages
higher short-term investment since these will yield higher short-run pro…ts. On the other hand, it encourages higher long term
investment since the higher cash-‡ow induced by the incre ...
Is It Time for an Infrastructure Push?
... the economy in two ways. In the short term it boosts
aggregate demand through the short-term fiscal multiplier, similar to other government spending, and also by
potentially crowding in private investment, given the highly
complementary nature of infrastructure services. The size of
the fiscal multi ...
... The Economic Survey of Latin America and the Caribbean is issued annually by the ECLAC Economic Development
Division. The 2003-2004 edition was prepared under the supervision of Ricardo Carciofi, Coordinator of the Division; Jürgen
Weller was responsible for its overall coordination.
As is customar ...
Quarterly - UniCredit Bank
... 2016 was a year of surprises, stunning political upsets, and repeated bouts of financial
markets’ volatility. Despite these shocks and after a dismal start, financial markets
demonstrated a remarkable resilience until recently, essentially shrugging off concerns about
the impact of the Brexit vote a ...
No. 20 - Beyond the Austerity Dispute: New Priorities for Fiscal Policy
... This volume brings together the papers presented at the Banca d’Italia workshop held in
Perugia from 9 to 11 April 2015.
In Europe, the euro-area sovereign debt crisis had spurred the implementation of structural
reforms as well as fiscal consolidation efforts in several Member states. Sovereign bon ...
comment imf policy and the argentine crisis
... When the IMF intervened in Mexico, instead of reassuring investors by providing
loans and assurance that problems were going to be corrected, the seriousness and
austerity of the measures triggered the large part of the panic. Mexico quickly paid
the IMF back, but money to accomplish this was simply ...
A triumph of failed ideas European models of capitalism in the crisis —
... EU towards disaster. The emphasis of the present publication, however,
is different and may be regarded as a complementary contribution to
current non-mainstream economic analyses. The analyses of individual
countries highlight the importance of interaction between economic
and institutional changes ...
In economics, austerity is a set of policies with the aim of reducing government budget deficits. Austerity policies may include spending cuts, tax increases, or a mixture of both. Austerity may be undertaken to demonstrate the government's fiscal discipline to their creditors and credit rating agencies by bringing revenues closer to expenditures.In most macroeconomic models, austerity policies generally increase unemployment in the short run, as government spending falls reducing jobs in the public or private sector or both, while tax increases reduce household disposable income and thus consumption. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office illustrated this when comparing unemployment under alternative fiscal scenarios.Unemployment increases safety net spending and further reduces tax revenues, partially offsetting the austerity measures. Government spending contributes to gross domestic product (GDP), so reducing spending may result in a higher debt-to-GDP ratio, a key measure of the debt burden carried by a country and its citizens. Higher short-term deficit spending (stimulus) contributes to GDP growth particularly when consumers and businesses are unwilling or unable to spend. This is because crowding out (i.e., rising interest rates as government bids against business for a finite amount of savings, slowing the economy) is less of a factor in a downturn, as there may be a surplus of savings.In the aftermath of the Great Recession, austerity results in Europe have been as predicted by macroeconomics, with unemployment rising to record levels and debt-to-GDP ratios rising, despite reductions in budget deficits relative to GDP. Eurostat reported that unemployment in the 17 Euro area countries (EA17) reached record levels in March 2013, at 12.1%, up from 11.0% in March 2012 and 10.3% in March 2011; and that the overall debt-to-GDP ratio for the EA17 was 70.1% in 2008, 80.0% in 2009, 85.4% in 2010, 87.3% in 2011, and 90.6% in 2012. Further, real GDP in the EA17 declined for six straight quarters from Q4 2011 to Q1 2013. The U.S. Congressional Budget Office estimated in August 2012 that if the U.S. implemented moderate austerity measures, the unemployment rate would rise by over 1% and economic growth would be significantly reduced in 2013. The U.S. partially avoided the ""fiscal cliff"" through the American Taxpayer Relief Act of 2012. U.S. unemployment has fallen steadily from a peak of 10% in early 2010 to 5.3% by July 2015.