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United States Energy Outlook and Policies Affecting the Outlook Guy Caruso Administrator Energy Information Administration Netherlands Institute of International Relations The Hague March 7, 2008 Energy Information Administration • EIA was established by the Department of Energy Organization Act of 1977 – Independent since its creation • EIA does not promote, formulate, or take positions on policy issues • Outlook is based on EIA’s recently issued Annual Energy Outlook 2008 Revised AEO2008 reference case indicates that through 2030... • • • • • • U.S. energy demand grows at an average annual rate of 0.7 percent The energy efficiency of the economy improves at an average annual rate of 1.7 percent U.S. oil import dependence, measured as a share of U.S. oil use, decreases over the next 25 years U.S. natural gas use declines over the last decade of the projection Future growth in U.S. natural gas supplies depends on unconventional domestic production, natural gas from Alaska, and liquefied natural gas imports Carbon dioxide emissions from energy grow at an average annual rate of 0.6 percent Energy prices are expected to decline in the near term, then rise 2006 dollars per million Btu 35 History Projections 30 Electricity 25 20 15 Crude Oil 10 Natural Gas 5 Coal 0 1980 1990 2000 2005 2010 2020 2030 World oil prices are higher than in previous projections 2006 dollars per barrel 120 History Projections 100 High Price 80 Reference 60 40 Low Price 20 0 1980 1995 2006 2015 2030 U.S. energy consumption grows slowly quadrillion Btu 140 History Projections 118.0 120 100 111.0 99.5 Renewables 103.3 Nuclear Coal 80 60 Liquids 40 20 Natural Gas 0 2006 2010 2020 2030 The transportation sector dominates liquid fuel consumption million barrels per day 18 History Projections 15 Transportation 12 9 6 Industrial 3 Residential and Commercial Electric Power 0 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Domestic crude oil production grows in the near term million barrels per day 8 History Projections 6 4 Lower 48 Onshore 2 0 1970 Lower 48 Offshore Alaska 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 Natural gas consumption grows over the next decade, then declines slowly trillion cubic feet 30 History 25 21.7 Projections 23.2 23.4 22.7 Transportation Electric Power 20 15 Industrial 10 Commercial 5 Residential 0 2006 2010 2020 2030 U.S. electricity consumption grows slowly in all sectors billion kilowatthours 6,000 History Projections 4,971 5,000 4,482 4,000 3,814 Industrial 4,037 3,000 Commercial 2,000 Residential 1,000 0 2006 2010 2020 2030 Natural gas generation offset by growth in coal, nuclear, and renewables billion kilowatthours 3,000 54 - percent of total 2,500 2006 2,000 2030 49 1,500 18 1,000 19 20 14 12 10 500 2 1 0 Coal Nuclear Natural Gas Renewable Petroleum The strongest growth in renewable generation is in biomass and wind billion kilowatthours 350 300 288 302 2006 2030 250 200 164 150 126 100 50 39 32 15 16 26 22 1 8 0 Hydropower Geothermal MSW Biomass Solar Wind A variety of fuel sources support the new renewable fuel standard billion credits 40 History Projections Legislated RFS Table Values 35 RFS with Paragraph 7 Adjustments 30 Liquids from Biomass Biodiesel Net Ethanol Imports 25 20 Ethanol from Other Feedstocks Cellulose-Based Ethanol 15 10 Corn-Based Ethanol 5 0 2006 2010 2020 2030 Carbon dioxide emissions grow at a slower rate million metric tons 3,500 7,000 3,000 6,500 2,500 6,000 2,000 5,500 Total Carbon Dioxide Emissions Electricity Coal Natural Gas Petroleum 2006 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 1,500 1,000 500 0 2006 2030 Residential 2006 2030 Commercial 2006 2030 Industrial Delivered, including losses 2006 2030 Transportation 2006 2030 Electric Power Key Uncertainties in the Projections • • • • Macroeconomic growth Energy prices Technological changes Government policy initiatives U.S. Energy Policy (based on Department of Energy) • Increasing Energy Security remains a top priority of the Bush Administration • In 2001 the Administration issued the National Energy Policy with over 100 recommendations. • The Energy Policy Act of 2005 (EPAct) was the first comprehensive energy legislation passed by Congress in over a decade. • To complement the goals in EPAct, President Bush proposed the Advanced Energy Initiative (AEI), American Competitiveness Initiative (ACI), and the Global Nuclear Energy Partnership (GNEP). • In December 2007, the President signed the Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007. Goal: Energy Security The President’s initiatives further advance the Administration’s goal to provide a long-term strategy to confront energy challenges in a balanced, comprehensive, and environmentallyresponsible way through diversification of supply and suppliers, increased energy efficiency, and modernization protection of the U.S. energy infrastructure. The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 • Improves Fuel Economy – Sets national fuel standard at 35 miles per gallon by 2020, which will increase fuel economy standards by 40 percent and save billions of gallons of fuel • Expands production of renewable fuels – Sets a mandatory Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) requiring fuel producers to use at least 36 billion gallons of biofuel by 2022 representing a nearly fivefold increase over current levels • Responds to the President’s “Twenty in Ten” Initiative • Demands Energy Efficiency – Federal buildings convert to Energy Star products by 2013 and new standards set for home appliances Energy Agenda for 2008 The Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 goes a long way, but the President has remaining energy proposals: • Electric Power: Generate electric power using increased cleaner coal technology, solar and wind energy, and nuclear energy • Domestic Supply of Oil: In a prudent and environmentallysensitive way, pass legislation opening access to domestic energy sources such as the Outer Continental Shelf and the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge • Strategic Petroleum Reserve: Double the capacity to 1.5 billion barrels to protect against severe supply disruptions U.S. Climate Change Policy Approach: Department of Energy Overview • Harnesses the power of markets and technological innovation, maintains economic growth, and encourages global participation • Reaffirms U.S. commitment to goal of United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change • Places climate change in a broader context that includes enhancing energy security, encouraging economic growth, and reducing air pollution Five Basic Elements • Advancing climate science to reduce • • • • uncertainties Policies and measures to slow the growth in greenhouse gas emissions with a Presidential goal to improve U.S. greenhouse gas emissions intensity 18 percent from 2002 to 2012 Accelerating technology development Expanding finance and open trade in clean energy goods and services Promoting a new international framework for collaboration Major New Initiatives Energy Independence and Security Act of 2007 • Renewable fuels mandate • 36 billion gallons of biofuel annually by 2022, about 5 times current levels • Vehicle fuel economy mandate • 35 miles per gallon by 2020, a 40percent improvement saving more than 8 billion gallons annually • Lighting mandate • Phase out incandescent bulbs by 2014 • Appliance mandate • Federal facility requirements • Reduce energy consumption 30 percent by 2015 and make new Federal buildings carbon-neutral by 2030 Combined, these measures could reduce CO2 emissions by more than 7 billion metric tons through 2030. • • • • • Executive Order Strengthening Federal government environmental, energy, and transportation Management Reduce oil consumption in vehicles by 2 percent per year Increase use of renewable fuels by 10 percent per year Improve energy efficiency by 30 percent in 10 years Use more renewable power Scale of the Global Challenge: Why Developing Countries are Key Business-As-Usual CO2 Emission Projections by Region, gigatons per year 90 80 70 50 Non-Annex I Emissions Equal Annex I Emissions about 2015 Non-Annex 1 60 Africa Middle East Latin America Southeast Asia India China 40 Korea Former Soviet Union Eastern Europe 30 Japan Annex 1 20 10 0 1990 2005 2020 2035 2050 2065 2080 Australia_NZ Western Europe Canada United States 2095 Data derived from Global Energy Technology Strategy, Addressing Climate Change: Phase 2 Findings from an International Public-Private Sponsored Research Program, Battelle Memorial Institute, 2007. Periodic Reports Petroleum Status and Natural Gas Storage Reports, weekly Short-Term Energy Outlook, monthly Annual Energy Outlook 2008, March 2008 International Energy Outlook 2007, May 2007, next issue May 2008 Examples of Special Analyses “Economic Effects of High Oil Prices,” Annual Energy Outlook 2007 Analysis of Oil and Gas Production in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge, March 2004 The Global Liquefied Natural Gas Market: Status and Outlook, Dec 2003 “Restricted Natural Gas Supply Case,” Annual Energy Outlook 2005 www.eia.doe.gov Guy Caruso [email protected]