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SOUTH YORKSHIRE
ECONOMIC PROFILE AND
PRIORITIES
Graham Joyce
Director
South Yorkshire Vision
• ‘To build a balanced,diverse, and
sustainable high growth economy in South
Yorkshire by 2010, recognised as a growing
European centre for high technology
manufacturing and knowledge based
services,offering opportunities for the whole
community’
GDP per Head (PPS) 2000 to 2002
107.7
110
103.5
100
99.7
101.0
103.3
102.9
105.1
103.8
90
80
70
82.0
73.5
74.6
75.7
78.4
75.0
76.8
1999
2000
78.5
60
50
1995
1996
1997
1998
Source: Eurostat (revised figures 1995 to 2002)
2001
2002
South Yorks
UK
EU15 (100)
Obj 1
GVA per head as % of UK 1999 to 2002
105
UK
100
95
90
85
Sheffield
Y&H 88.1
Y&H
80
75
SY
76.5
75.3
B, D, R.
70
65
90.5
88.4
S 88.3
67.0
66.4
60
1999
Source: National Statistics
Note: UK = Less Extra Regio
2000
2001
SY
UK
Sheffield
YH
2002
B,D,R
Employees as % of Working Age
70
Percentage
65
25.5m
68.8%
25.2m
68.5%
60
55
505,000
61.5%
483,500
58.8%
25.5m
68.5%
25.6m
68.6%
518,800
63%
490,000
59.6%
50
2000
2001
Source: ABI, NOMIS (all figures revised)
2002
2003
S.Yorks
GB
Current Trends - Jobs gap
Jobs gap is the difference
between the jobs that
South Yorkshire has
measured against UK
average
South Yorkshire Employee Gap against UK Average
(Sept)
90,000
80,000
79,500
75,200
70,000
58,400
60,000
45,300
50,000
40,000
SY employment growing
faster than in the UK, the
jobs gap has dropped by a
quarter since 2000
30,000
20,000
10,000
0
2000
Source: ONS, NOMIS
2001
2002
2003
Unemployment Rate August 2000 - August 2005
(% based on resident working age population)
4.5
4.0
Sheffield
UK
3.5
SY
Barnsley
%
Doncaster
3.0
Doncaster
2.5
UK
Rotherham
Sheffield
2.0
Barnsley
1.5
August
2000
2001
Source : NOMIS, Claim ant Count
2002
2003
2004
August
2005
Employment Rate by Age 1997 -2005
100
Doncaster
(35-49) ▼
90
GB 35 - 49
GB (35 - 49)
80
GB - 50+
Sth Yrks (35-49)
%
Sth Yrks - 50+
70
GB - 50+
Barnsley (35-49)
Barnsley 50+
60
Doncaster (35-49)
Doncaster (50+)
50
Barnsley
50 +
Doncaster (50+)
40
19971998
1998 1999
Source : NOMIS, LFS
19992000
20002001
20012002
20022003
20032004
20042005
Current Trends - Earnings
SY Average Full-time Hourly Earnings Exc. Bonuses
(GB=100) and Females as %age Male Earnings
94
Male earnings rose
between 2002 and 2003
following 20 years of
steady decline
92
90.4
88.5
88
86
84
89.9
89.2
90
Percentage
Earnings for both men
and women have
improved against the
national figure
92.1
91.4
88.9
89.5
88.6
87.0
85.6
85.4
84.3
86.0
83.5
83.8
84.6
83.3
82
81.9
80.4
2001
2002
80
M ale
A ll
Female
F as % M
2003
2004
78
2000
Source: New Earnings Survey (2000-2003), ASHE (2004) - NS
Educational Attainment
SY school results improved faster than the national average since
Objective 1 started
Barnsley has made the most significant improvement
% of 15 year olds achieving at GCSE /equivalents
2003/4
5+ A* - C
grades
5+ A* - G
grades
Any
passes
5+ A* - C
grades
5+ A* - G
grades
47
85.6
95.2
4.8
5.2
0.8
1.4
-1.4
40.7
87.4
94.5
5.5
6
2.6
2.1
-2.1
Doncaster
41
86.4
93.8
6.2
4.5
0.8
3.1
-3.1
Rotherham
46
88.2
94.2
5.8
5
-0.2
0
0
Sheffield
44.7
85.5
92.5
7.5
3.9
-0.3
1.6
-1.6
England
Ave
53.7
88.8
95.9
4.1
4.5
-0.1
1.5
-1.5
Y&H
Barnsley
Source : Dfes
No
passes
% point change since 1999/2000:
Any
passes
No
passes
S.Yorks VAT Base Compared to Metropolitan Counties
105
100
2,783
10%
Gap
2,705
9.6%
Gap
2,645
9.4%
Gap
95
2,559
9.0%
Gap
90
85
80
75
25,165
VAT
Stocks
25,380
VAT
Stocks
25,475
VAT
Stocks
25,910
VAT
Stocks
Jan 2001
Jan 2002
Jan 2003
Jan 2004
70
65
60
Source: SBS, NS and NISRA
VAT Gap behind MetCounties
S.Yorks VAT Stock
Summary
• Unemployment Rate – Different age groups;
• Economic Activity – Males
– Increasing for Sheffield/Rotherham;
– Decreasing for Barnsley.
• Earnings - Still 13% Gap with UK overall 2004;
• Qualifications : 10% gap with UK, GCSE A*-C;
• VAT stocks improved slightly but still 9% gap with
UK;
Objective 1- catalytic effect
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
16,500 new jobs (+14,400 secured)
6,660 SMEs supported - £640m additional sales
600 new businesses
290,000 assisted with training/development
115,000 sq m. new floorspace created
£293m Net Additional GDP
£335m Net Safeguarded GDP
….but still cause for concern
• Are improvements sustainable ?
• Can we turn revival into transformation?
• Quality of skills and industrial sectors need
to improve further
% age with High Order Occupations:
(M anagerial, Professional & Technical) February 2004
45
40
40.5%
35
34.0%
32.7%
30
32.8%
31.5%
30.6%
25
20
GB
SY
S
Source: Local Area Labour Force Survey
D
R
B
South Yorkshire Strong and
Declining Sectors
United Kingdom Strong and
Declining Sectors
Declining,
20.6%
Declining,
36.0%
Strong,
50.1%
Other,
13.1%
Other, 6.0%
Emerging,
7.9%
Source: Experian, Cambridge Econometrics
Emerging,
5.0%
Strong,
61.3%
South Yorkshire in ten years – Baseline
estimates
• Still Underperforming UK by some margin
PRIORITY 1 – STIMULATING THE EMERGENCE OF NEW
GROWTH AND HIGH TECHNOLOGY SECTORS
PRIORITY 2 – MODERNISING BUSINESSES THROUGH
ENHANCING COMPETITIVENESS AND INNOVATION
PRIORITY 3 – BUILDING A WORLD-LEADING LEARNING
REGION WHICH PROMOTES EQUITY,
EMPLOYMENT AND SOCIAL INCLUSION
PRIORITY 3A – BUILDING A WORLD-LEADING LEARNING
REGION
PRIORITY 3B – PROMOTING EQUITY, EMPLOYMENT AND
SOCIAL INCLUSION
PRIORITY 3C – WORKFORCE DEVELOPMENT
PRIORITY 4 – DEVELOPING ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITIES IN
TARGETED COMMUNITIES
PRIORITY 4A – SUPPORTING COMMUNITY ECONOMIC
DEVELOPMENT
PRIORITY 4B – HELPING COMMUNITIES MAKE THE
TRANSITION TO ECONOMIC RENEWAL
PRIORITY 5 – SUPPORTING BUSINESS INVESTMENT
THROUGH STRATEGIC SPATIAL
DEVELOPMENT
PRIORITY 6 – PROVIDING THE FOUNDATIONS FOR A
SUCCESSFUL PROGRAMME
No employment growth … why?
Locally …
With policy on …
Sub-regional GDP growth
With policy on …
• 30,000 extra jobs in South Yorkshire
• Productivity growth still trails UK
• The productivity gap still widens
• Employment growth now marginally exceeds UK
• Output growth also marginally exceeds UK
• European ranking rises
BUT
• Scope for error in original estimates
• Simplistic approach means UK & Europe stand still whilst SY benefits. This is unlikely. Other
areas get funding too …
• … further considerations also
Further considerations
• Migration
• 30,000 jobs mean people will move in
• Model suggests around 17,000
• Of these 6,000 expected to take jobs
• Commuting
• 30,000 jobs mean people will commute in
• Model suggests an extra 9,000
• Which leaves …
• … 15,000 jobs to be filled by those resident in the area and not in work (remember this is
additional!)
Conclusions
• Advise caution in interpretation, especially scale of impact
• Our standard forecasts suggest little growth, primarily due to lack of supply side inputs
• If intervention goes on to create 30,000 extra jobs as the model suggests, where do these extra
people come from to meet demand?
• Relocation and in-commuting (50%)
• Local people not in work (50%)
• Is this feasible in the context of South Yorkshire’s supply side infrastructure?
• Our long-term models suggest not but significant investment in themes 3 to 6