Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Large-scale land acquisitions for agricultural investment: Trends and issues Lorenzo Cotula Senior Researcher – Law and Sustainable Development International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) Setting the scene Spate of media reports worldwide Little systematic empirical data FAO/IFAD/IIED study; IIED involvement in World Bank-led study Trends and drivers, land tenure arrangements, land access impacts – focusing on sub-Saharan Africa Ongoing literature review, qualitative interviews, systematic inventories in 6 countries Outline 1. Trends and drivers 2. Can local people benefit? 1. Trends and drivers 2. Can local people benefit? FDI flows FDI stock as % GDP 40 esp extractives, and policy reform 45 40 30 35 25 30 20 25 20 15 % GDP Driven by commodity demand, 50 35 $ billion A fast evolving context: Investment flows to sub-Saharan Africa Major increase since 2000 15 10 10 Highly uneven distribution 5 0 factors likely to stay 1990 1980 2007 1990 2005 35 30 $Billion (nominal) But, longer term, stuctural 0 1980 Likely to slow with economic downturn 5 25 20 15 10 5 0 Uganda Tanzania Senegal Nigeria Namibia Mozambique Mali Kenya Ghana Chad Cameroon Burkina Faso Source: UNCTAD Growing agricultural investment – agrifood Long term projections re: global food demand; food price hikes 2008, concerns about food security Land acquisitions in Africa, South East Asia, Central Asia as policy and market reaction Some governments promote acquisitions overseas - food importing, official reserves (oil, trade) Gulf states in Sudan – geographical and cultural proximity Private investors (agribusiness, finance) - expect significant returns and/or land value increases Lonrho deals; Jarch Capital deal; private fund activity in parts of Africa Why Africa? Investors: “Inexpensive land”, “favourable climates”, “labour available” Government Acquirer Provider Government Private Private QIA deals in Sudan, Indonesia, Cambodia, Vietnam … DaewooMadagascar; Hadco-Sudan … Jarch Capital (Sudan) … Other driving forces – biofuels, carbon markets Government targets, oil prices (though decline after summer 2008) Lack of systematic data but significant investments in Africa Mozambique: 16 biofuels projects > 1000 ha, 2.18 m ha total, $3 bn investment (Nhantumbo and Salomao, forthcoming) Source: IEA 2006 Carbon markets: voluntary markets, REDD negotiations? 1. Trends and drivers 2. Can local people benefit? [Lenders, insurers] Polarised debates; assess risks & opportunities, develop ways to maximise local voice and benefit Major risks: asset loss, food insecurity, marginalisation... But also opportunities: harnessing capital, know-how, market access... Terms and conditions key – What business models? What benefit sharing? Who decides and how? Not just investor-state deal, triangle with local resource users (decisions, benefits) Host state agencies Investor(s) NGOs NGOs Local resource users Security of local land rights “Africa has most of the underutilised fertile land in the world” (private fund manager); but population pressures, need for data on land availability Secure rights key to minimise arbitrary dispossession and maximise local benefit 1960 2000 Population density (UNEP, 2004) Local land rights may be undermined by inadequate recognition, major power asymmetries... Need to step up efforts to secure local land rights and support local people get a better deal Recognition of local rights, accessible recording, legal literacy training, support in negotiations...