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Large-scale land acquisitions for agricultural investment in Africa: Trends and issues Lorenzo Cotula (and Sonja Vermeulen, James Keeley, Rebeca Leonard, Berhanu Adenew and Moussa Djiré) International Institute for Environment and Development (IIED) Setting the scene Spate of media reports worldwide yet little systematic empirical data FAO/IFAD/IIED study; IIED involvement in World Bank-led study “What”: trends and drivers; and “how”: characteristics of land deals, land access impacts – focusing on government-partnered investment and on sub-Saharan Africa Ongoing literature review, qualitative interviews, quantitative inventories in 6 countries (Ethiopia, Mali in) Limitations Outline 1. “What”: Trends and drivers 2. “How”: Characteristics of land deals 1. “What”: Trends and drivers 2. “How”: Characteristics of land deals FDI flows FDI stock as % GDP 40 esp extractives, and policy reform 45 40 30 35 25 30 20 25 20 15 % GDP Driven by commodity demand, 50 35 $ billion A fast evolving context: Investment flows to sub-Saharan Africa Major increase since 2000 15 10 10 Highly uneven distribution 5 0 factors likely to stay 1990 1980 2007 1990 2005 35 30 $Billion (nominal) But, longer term, stuctural 0 1980 Likely to slow with economic downturn 5 25 20 15 10 5 0 Uganda Tanzania Senegal Nigeria Namibia Mozambique Mali Kenya Ghana Chad Cameroon Burkina Faso Source: UNCTAD Agricultural investment - drivers Food vs fuel, Ethiopia Biofuels – energy demand (transport), government targets, oil prices (though decline after summer 2008) Agrifood - long term projections re: global food demand; food price hikes 2008 Host country policy reforms to encourage investment Food produce Biofuel BITs by 12 African countries 200 Land acquisitions as policy and market reaction Why Africa? Investors: “inexpensive land”, “favourable climates”, “labour available” 150 100 50 0 1960-69 1970-79 1980-89 1990-99 2000-on by decade cumulative Agricultural investment - Key players Some governments promote acquisitions overseas - food importing, official reserves (oil revenues, trade surpluses) E.g. Gulf states in Sudan Ethiopia - classification submitted projects by investor type Wholly Domestic Co 8% Foreign Stake Domestic Co 5% Foreign private company 87% Private investors (agribusiness, finance) - expect significant returns and/or land value increases E.g. Lonrho, Daewoo, Hadco deals; private fund activity in parts of Africa Mali - classification of submitted projects by investor type Wholly Domestic Co Foreign Stake Domestic Co 42% 17% Domestic state-owned company Foreign company 8% Foreign company, partly foreign government owned 8% 8% 17% Foreign company, majority government owned Ethiopia (2004-2008) Number of projects By year Allocated land (ha) Cumulative Allocated land (ha) - by year 200 Allocated land (ha) - cumulative 500000 150 Hectares 400000 100 50 300000 200000 100000 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Investment commitments By year 90000000 80000000 70000000 60000000 50000000 40000000 30000000 20000000 10000000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2005 2006 2007 2008 Investor origin Africa Cumulative 100000000 2004 2004 Central Asia China Middle East Europe N. America 1. “What”: Trends and drivers 2. “How”: Characteristics of land deals Acquirer Provider Government Private Government Private QIA deals in Sudan, Indonesia, Vietnam UAE deals in Sudan, incl Abu Dhabi Fund for Development … Daewoo-Madagascar; Hadco-Sudan … Jarch Capital deal in Sudan … Type of land rights Mainly govt leases (cf legal constraints): qualitative (Lonrho, Sudan) and quantitative (eg 100% Ethiopia) Land fees not main govt benefit (Sudan); reported prices (Mali, Ethiopia) 0-12 USD/ha/yr, possible 5yr exemptions Investment and empoyment commitments – but what legal value? Plantations seem predominant but some contract farming esp in biofuels Provisions on produce export – 100% guaranteed? 100% Lease <50yrs Sale Lease >50yrs N/A 80% 60% 40% 20% 0% Ethiopia Mali Land acquired from 100% Government, but with some use or land claims 80% 60% 40% Government, with no other land claims 20% 0% Ethiopia Mali Local land rights Land commonly state-owned, protection of use rights varies “Wasteland” – but what is it? 100% of land allocations in Ethiopia (now triangulating); Mali: farming, herding No or little local involvement in decisions (but Ethiopia, 3/6 projects: agreement with local leaders) Compensation tends to be limited to improvements if state-owned land, compensation rates an issue Final remarks 1960 2000 Major risks: loss of land access, esp where growing scarcity; food insecurity, economic marginalisation... But also opportunities: harnessing capital, know-how, market access... Terms and conditions key – What business models? What benefit sharing? Who decides and how? Properly negotiated investor-state deal, but also triangle with local resource users (decisions, benefits) Secure land rights key to minimise arbitrary dispossession and maximise local benefit Population density (UNEP, 2004) [Lenders, insurers] Host state agencies Investor(s) NGOs NGOs Local resource users