Download Exercises for SES development using country/region storylines

BASELINE SOCIOECONOMIC
SCENARIOS
EXERCISE
SES development using country/region storylines
Drivers
• Factors important for shaping future of your sector
(for instance energy, agriculture and food security,
health, coastal zone, …) over next 20 years
• Some are given (climate change, population growth)
• Others are uncertain and will vary depending upon
decisions made in region (markets, agricultural policy).
Step 1: Identify Drivers to the year 2030
• Think back over last 30 years: what were the key
drivers that shaped today’s situation?
• Think of next 20 years: what will be the key drivers?
• How will these key drivers interact?
• Define 4 scenarios
• Develop storyline and if possible add quantitative
information.
Questions to ask Yourself when Developing Storylines
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Would globalisation slow or even begin to reverse?
Will we see changed political entities in the future (eg. strong
regionalisation or resource-based boundaries)?
What pressure would climate change put on developing countries
which are less resilient to its impacts? Will these pressures be
manageable?
How co-ordinated will the global political response to climate
change be?
What relationships might evolve between low-income countries
and the rest of the world?
What will become of overseas development aid – where will
climate change fit in?
How high will climate change sit on the political agendas of high
and middle-income countries
Will mitigation mechanisms be effective?
Examples of Questions Towards Development of Storyline for Food Security and Agriculture
• What development and investment choices will your country
make in order to meet its projected food security needs?
• What mix of agricultural production and food imports is
desired, and how does this mix enhance or detract from
adaptation capacity, vulnerability, and food security of the
country?
• Will development emphasize globalization and increased
reliance on imported food? If so, what type of
industrialization is desired and are the resources available
to undertake that pathway?
• The questions need to be tailored depending on national
circumstances.
SRES A storylines
SRES B Storylines