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Download Ch 1: Selling our Future
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Events vs. Trends While other societies can be traced to specific events that lead to their collapse, our global society faces a dilemma that is trend-driven. Soil erosion, falling water tables, rising carbon emissions are not easily reversed. Monsoons, droughts, heat waves are specific events, temporary repercussions. Food as a Weak Link SUPPLY: DEMAND: Soil Erosion Population Growth Melting ice caps Use of grain to fuel cars Available Land Increased animal consumption Rising Sea Levels Rich vs. Poor countries Supply & Demand are in a constant imbalance Resource Trends Affecting Supply Cropland loss to non farming: Increase in paving of roads Suburban sprawl Advancing deserts Reduction of oil supplies: Increased use of automobiles Increased food production (tillage, irrigation, harvesting Easy access oil well running dry Diversion of irrigation water to cities: Growing population drinks more water Cities (Denver) not near large bodies of water Over pumping of aquifers Results: ”Business as usual is no longer a viable option” Cropland loss to non farming: People turning to oceans for protein, world seafood supply is now dependent on fish farms Increased demand for fish feed as a result of farming fish Diversion of irrigation water to cities: Aquifers run dry, can no longer grow crops (Saudi Arabia discontinuing wheat production as of 2016) Shortage in water shrinks grain harvest, leads to need for genetically modified organisms Reduction of oil supplies: More oil resources burned by going deeper/further to harvest oil Decline in available oil results in not enough affordable fuel to keep producing crops, turn to genetically modified organisms Politics of Food In 2007 Russia and Argentina started banning exports in an attempt to keep domestic food a reasonable price. Background: * Countries that imported goods were no longer able to rely on the market, sought to make long term deals with countries still willing to export…to no avail. Land Buyouts Affluent countries (Saudi Arabia) purchased land in poorer nations such as Ethiopia. Affluent countries are also buying land for water use. Usually controversial agreements between affluent and host countries. Results Host countries now have less land to feed the already starving nation. Host country has less water, even greater dependence on imported grain. Host nations have even more political unrest. Buyouts usually occurring in countries with tropical rainforests, results in slash and burn. Farmers are not involved in land buyout agreements, are forced to leave their land, greater unemployment rate. Global Economy Ponzi By consuming natural resources, our economy is able to stay alive, these resources will run out. 400 million people being fed by over pumping aquifers, irrigation rivers running stronger than ever due to glacial melt. Over fishing in areas: High yields now, not indefinitely (Cod fishing in the Northeast). Paul Hawken: Blessed Unrest Sir Nicolas Stern: Market Price: What you pay 2009 gas was $3 gallon) Finding the oil Pumping to the surface Refining Delivering (in per The difference between Market Price for fossil fuels and Honest Price is great Honest Price: What you pay, plus the environment and society costs (in 2009 gas should have been $ 15 per gallon) Everything from Market Price Cost of climate change Tax subsidies to the oil industry Military protection costs This type of market behavior is leading to the destruction of natural Healthcare costs D e s t r u c t i o n o f n a t u r a l s support u p p o r t systems systems leads to state failure Failing States: Characteristics High fertility rates in women High rates of population growth Majority of population is young (40% under 15) Deterioration of physical infrastructure Failing States: Results Food shortages High food prices High percentage of unemployed youth Political unrest Lacking in functional healthcare system Breakdown of law and order, loss of personal security Failing States (2008) Scores are based on 12 social, political, economical, and military indicators out of 120. Plan B: A Plan to Save Civilization Cutting carbon emissions Stabilizing the population Eradicating poverty Restoring the earths natural systems Cutting Carbon Emissions By 80% in 2020 Dramatically raise energy efficiency worldwide Banning deforestation, planting trees by the billions Investing in renewable resources Stabilizing the Population 8 Billion Must Reduce Fertility Needs to stop before mortality rate increases Projected 9.2 billion by 2050 with 2.4 billion in developing countries Restoring the Earth’s Natural Systems Conserving soil Banning deforestation Promoting reforestation Restoring fisheries Protecting aquifers by raising water productivity Essential to reverse the rise in hunger “The challenge is not only to build a new economy but to do so at wartime speed before we miss so many of nature’s deadlines that the economic system begins to unravel. Participating in the construction of this enduring new economy is exhilarating. So is the quality of life it will bring. A world where population has stabilized, forests are expanding, and carbon emissions are falling is within our grasp.”
