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Chapter 18: “The Economic Way of Thinking” 11th Edition Economic Performance and Political Economy © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko Chapter 18 Outline • Introduction • The Political Setting • The Horizons and the Sequence of Effects • Deficits Unlimited • Why Not Government at All Levels? • The Political Economy of Monetary Policy © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 2 of 27 Chapter 18 Outline • Discretion and Rules • Who is at the Controls? • Renewal of the Debate • What Lies Ahead? © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 3 of 27 Introduction • Policy makers talk about public interest – Actually respond to pressures of narrower interests • Results of such policies – Less stability rather than more – Stagnation rather than economic growth © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 4 of 27 The Political Setting • Public Policy – Reflects the interests of those who can extract benefits of the political process at a low cost. • Preferred Policies – Short-term benefits and long-term costs. • Public Policy – Reflects the ability of interested parties to articulate their request and monitor the politicians’ response. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 5 of 27 Time Horizons and the Sequence of Effects • Changes in Aggregate Demand – Affects output and employment before affecting prices. • Politically – Expansionary policy is preferred over contractionary policy because… © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 6 of 27 Time Horizons and the Sequence of Effects • Politically – Favor policies yielding benefits on • Well organized and well informed interest groups • In the short run • At the expense of costs borne by unorganized and ill-informed mass of voters. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 7 of 27 Deficits Unlimited Why do budget deficits persist when there is a majority support for a balanced budget? © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 8 of 27 Deficits Unlimited 1990 -$221.2 1997 -$ 22.0 1991 -$269.3 1998 +$ 69.2 1992 -$290.4 1999 +$125.6 1993 -$255.1 2000 +$236.4 1994 -$203.2 2001 +$127.4 1995 -$164.0 2002 -$157.8 1996 -$107.5 2003 -$375.3 © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 9 of 27 Deficits Unlimited WHAT DO YOU THINK? Are Congress and the President responsible for eliminating the deficit? © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 10 of 27 Why Not Government at All Levels? • State and local governments do not produce chronic deficits. • The federal government did not produce chronic deficits prior to the 1970’s. • State and local governments do not have control over the medium of exchange. • Strong majority convictions influence public policy. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 11 of 27 Why Not Government at All Levels? Federal Government Debt as Percentage of GDP 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing 118% 94 69 56 47 38 35 33 44 56 68 62 The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 12 of 27 Why Not Government at All Levels? How did Keynesian economics impact our willingness to accept federal budget deficits? © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 13 of 27 The Political Economy of Monetary Policy • Question – Can the Fed prevent chronic deficits? © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 14 of 27 The Political Economy of Monetary Policy • Can the Fed prevent chronic deficits? – Fed is organized as an independent agency. – Congress could rewrite the Federal Reserve Act. – Radical action by Congress could create uncertainty over inflation. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 15 of 27 Discretion and Rules • An Alternative to Discretionary Fiscal and Monetary Policy 1. Government expenditures without reference to a stabilization goal. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 16 of 27 Discretion and Rules • An Alternative to Discretionary Fiscal and Monetary Policy 2. Tax rates set to balance the budget over a normal period. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 17 of 27 Discretion and Rules • An Alternative to Discretionary Fiscal and Monetary Policy 3. The Fed should maintain a constant money stock for allowing moderate growth. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 18 of 27 Who Is at the Controls? Would a balanced budget amendment eliminate deficit spending and help stabilize the economy? © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 19 of 27 Renewal of the Debate • Question – Do markets allocate resources efficiently? • Late 1980s and early 1990s – Capitalism reigned as the solution to the allocation questions. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 20 of 27 Renewal of the Debate • Late 1990s – Economic difficulties in Russia, Brazil and the Pacific rim drew new attention to the economic role of government. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 21 of 27 Renewal of the Debate • Question – What has caused the economic problems in: • Russia? • Japan? • Malaysia and Indonesia? • Brazil? © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 22 of 27 Renewal of the Debate • Question – Is it failed policy or simply market adjustments? © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 23 of 27 What Lies Ahead? What do you think…? © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 24 of 27 Once Over Lightly • Policymakers controlled by political processes. • Stabilization policies affected by short time horizons. • Unanticipated change in rate of growth of demand will affect output and employment before costs and prices. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 25 of 27 Once Over Lightly • Political process tends to produce chronic budget deficits. • Government contribution to economic stability might be to do “less”. • Discretion stabilization policy vs. fixed rules. • Economic failures in late 1990’s renewed debate over roles of governments and markets. © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 26 of 27 End of Chapter 18 © 2006 Prentice Hall Business Publishing The Economic Way of Thinking, 11/e Heyne/Boettke/Prychitko 27 of 27