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Draft Budget and Tax Bill for 2015
October 2014
Budget
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Total Expenditure: ARS 246,207.4 million
Total Revenues: ARS 246.285,9 million
Financial Result: ARS 78.5 million
Third consecutive year with a positive primary
result :
– Closing 2013: ARS 3.32 billion
– Budget for 2014: ARS 5.27 billion
– Budget for 2015: ARS 7.51 billion
The balance in the budget is not a goal in itself other than a means to
sustain public policies in time
Strong increase in Security and Justice for
2015
• Ministry of Security : for the 2015 Budget items to the
Ministry of Security will grow by 66% as compared
with the 2014 budget
• Ministry of Justice: the increase will be of 63%
• Justice Department: will grow by 40%
Due to public demand, we priritizy Security and
Social Services
• Security Services /GDP ratio
2,5%
• Social Services/GDP ratio
12,0%
10,3%
2,1%
9,4%
10,0%
2,0%
1,5%
8,0%
1,5%
7,0%
6,0%
1,0%
1,0%
4,0%
0,5%
2,0%
0,0%
0,0%
2007
Bud. 2014
Proj. Bud. 2015
2007
Bud. 2014
Proj. Bud. 2015
Personnel reinforcement in sensitive areas
• 10.000 police officers in the centralized police
force
• 15.000 police officers in the local police force
• 10.000 teachers
• 6.000 doctors, nurses and healthcare
assistants
Inverstment in Infraestructure, health, envornment
• We will allocate more than ARS 1.5 billion to strengthen the
provincial road network.
• We will continue the Comprehensive Plan for the Capital Region,
including sanitation, drainage and dredging of the El Gato
stream, and the adequacy of several streams.
• We will implement a comprehensive environmental and social
management plan in the Reconquista River Basin, financed by a
IADB loan for USD 230 million.
• We will continue building a revolutionary health system by
setting up seven new Early Care Units (WCU) in different
municipalities of our Province.
Transfers to Municipalities
Between 2007 and 2014, transfers to municipalities have grown by 570%
135 Municipalities
(in thousands of pesos)
CONCEPT
Budget
2014
Estimated 2015
(with Tax.
Policy)
Var. %
TOTAL
25.535.204
35.110.691
37,5 %
CO-PARTICIPATION
19.056.867
26.039.140
36,6 %
1.446.354
2.212.667
53,0 %
FONDO SOLIDARIO PROVINCIAL(Afectado a Infraest.)
856.136
1.384.440
61,7 %
DESCENTRALIZACIÓN TRIBUTARIA
882.727
1.130.712
28,1 %
FPS and SA Fund (To social plans)
477.142
610.468
27,9 %
FPS and SA Fund ( To waste treatment)
184.232
222.388
20,7 %
1.250.087
1.721.381
37,7 %
SOCIAL INCLUSION MUNICIPAL FUND
928.282
1.277.909
37,7 %
GAMBLING
453.376
511.585
12,8 %
EDUCATION FINANCING FUND
(
MUNICIPAL STRENGHTENING FUND
Tax Law
For 2015 the tax law sets forth measures to sustain the
progress made in terms of equity and progressivity in
the provincial tax structure, promoting, inter alia, the
necessary updates to mitigate the loss of tax share in
public financing.
Urban Real Estate Tax
– The tax valuation is updated by 10.5% following
two years without modifications.
– This figure is lower than any indicator showing, for
example, property price evolution.
– The tax base adjustment coefficient is increased
from 0.85 to 1.
– Up to 60% of the tax payers will pay a tax
increase lower than ARS 30 per installment.
• Urban Real Estate Tax Lag (I)
Urban Real Estate /Housing prices
1,6
1,4
1,2
1,0
0,8
0,6
0,4
0,2
2013
0,64
Con política
2015
0,55
2014
0,51 Sin política
2015
0,41
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0,0
Without tax updates
the real estate tax
policy to housing price
ratio would reach the
lowest level in the last
22 years.
• Urban Real Estate Tax Lag(II)
Automotive/Urban Real Estate Tax
Sin política
2015
2,5
3,0
2,5
2014
1,8
2,0
2013
1,4
1,5
Con política
2015
1,9
1,0
0,5
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
0,0
With tax increases we
would not recover
what has been
achieved in 2013, we
would only prevent the
bias to continue
Impuesto Inmobiliario Rural
– The tax base is updated following two and a half
years without modifications.
– The tax base adjustment coefficient is increased
from 0.50 to 0.65.
– This figure is lower than any indicator showing, for
example, the young bull price evolution.
– Up to 60% of the tax payers will pay an annual
tax increase lower than ARS 10 per hectare.
Rural Real Estate Tax
• Agricultural emergency and/or disaster
– Administrative steps are streamlined so that ARBA
can grant tax breaks “ad referendum” of the
corresponding provincial decree.
– Tax break on the rural real estate tax for 2015 in
line with the declaration in 2014.
• Rural Real Estate Lag
Rural Real Estate per ha/kg of a young bull price
14,0
12,0
10,0
8,0
6,0
4,0
2,0
2013
7,6
Con política
2015
5,3
2014
5,2
Sin política
2015
4,0
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
0,0
While in 2013 the tax
accounted for 7.6 kg of
young bull per ha, even
with a tax increase for
2015 we would reduce
to 5.3 kg per ha
Some of the proposed mofidications
• Tax on the gratuitous transfer of goods: as it is a
intergeneration personal property, we modify the
concept of tax exception from a billing to property
valuation.
• Gross revenues tax :
– The rate on plane tickets is increased to 3.5%
– School transport rate is reduced
– The tax exception on the purchase of fuel from
planes and boats is eliminated.
…Debt reduction …
Debt / GDP (%)(1)
14%
Debt / Total Revenues
120%
11,9%
12%
11,7%
10,5%
10,2%
10%
108,4%
93,4%
100%
9,2%
9,0%
8,4%
87,2%
76,4%
7,6%
80%
67,4%
65,1%
8%
54,6%
60%
6%
46,5%
4%
40%
2%
20%
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 P
0%
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014 P
(1): The data correspond to the report on “Gross Domestic Product of the Province of Buenos Aires“ elaborated on October 9, 2013 by the Provincial Statistics Bureau.
Source: Ministry of Economy.
During 2015 we will maintain the debt reduction policy, with a ARS 1.6
billion reduction. Debt service will be paid in the amount of ARS 21.06
billion and potential funding operations are expected for ARS 19.41 billion.