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Transcript
Inflation Targeting Prof. Dariusz Filar Inflation Targets • Point targets (Great Britain – 2%; Norway – 2,5%; Mexico – 3%) • Point targets with deviation bands (Sweden – 2% +/- 1pp; Poland – 2,5% +/- 1 pp; Brasil – 4,5% +/- 2pp • Band targets (Australia – from 2 to 3%; New Zeland – from 1 to 3%; RPA – from 3 to 6%) • Asymetric targets (Switzerland – always below 2%; EBC in €uro Area – below 2%, but close to this level) Monetary Policy Transmission (1) 1) Central Bank raises/lowers its reference rate 2) Next day other short-term interest rates rise/fall 3) Few months later supply of loanable funds decrease/increase 4) Few months later the long-term real interest rate rises/falls Monetary Policy Transmission (2) 5) Up to a year later consumption, investment and net exports decrease/increase 6) Up to a year later aggregate demand decreases/increases 7) About a year later real GDP growth rate decreases/increases 8) About two years later inflation rate decreases/increases Reference rate of the National Bank of Poland and core inflation - Q3/2003 - Q1/2013 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Inflacja bazowa(żyw/ener) Stopa referencyjna NBP Difference between CPI and core inflation Różnica miedzy CPI a inflacją bazową 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.1 2 2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.1 1.1 1 0.9 1 0.9 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.8 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.2 Core inflation and CPI in Poland Q3/2003 - Q1/2013 CPI 5 Inflation target NBP = 2,5% 4 3 2 1 0 -1 Inflacja bazowa(żyw/ener)