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Transcript
Macroeconomic environment of business activities - 4 Dariusz Filar Monetary Policy The main goal of the monetary policy is achievement of price stability – that is inflation so low and stable over time that is does not materially enter into the decisions of firms and households. Inflation targeting Inflation targeting is a monetary policy strategy in which the central bank makes a public commitment to achieving an explicit inflation target. Inflation targets differ in varous countries but a typical target range is between 1 and 4 per cent. Monetary Policy The tightening cycle – Central Bank raises its main reference rate The easing cycle – Central Bank lowers its main reference rate Monetary Policy Transmission (1) 1) Central Bank raises/lowers its reference rate 2) Next day other short-term interest rates rise/fall 3) Few months later supply of loanable funds decrease/increase 4) Few months later the long-term real interest rate rises/falls Monetary Policy Transmission (2) 5) Up to a year later consumption, investment and net exports decrease/increase 6) Up to a year later aggregate demand decreases/increases 7) About a year later real GDP growth rate decreases/increases 8) About two years later inflation rate decreases/increases Inflation target, inflation rate and reference rate in Poland 7 6 5 4 CPI Inflacja bazowa(żyw/ener) 3 Stopa referencyjna NBP Górna granica odchyleń Cel inflacyjny 2 1 0 -1 Dolna granica odchyleń