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Public Procurement and Public Budgets – Management and Transparency Aleš Michl Portfolio Strategist [email protected] www.rb.cz/modelove-portfolio September 2011 Prague – Changchun 7 653 km 80’s in Changchun Now! China was the biggest economy in the world for almost all of the past 2000 years China failed to keep pace with the Europe/US in the Industrial Revolution Source: Paul Kennedy/The Rise and Fall of the Great Powers, 1987. CEO Marchionne: “Fiat would perform better without its loss-making Italian plants” Advanced Economies: Central Government Public Debts (in % of GDP) World War 2 NOW Source: Reinhart/Sbrancia: The Liquidation of Government Debt, Working Paper NBER, March 2011. http://www.nber.org/papers/w16893.pdf Czech republic Global Competitiveness Report 2011 Source: World Economic Forum, 2011 Czech republic Unit Labor Cost indicators by economic activity Unit Labor Cost - Total Economy (2005=100) 125 Unit Labor Cost - Industry (2005=100) 120 Unit Labor Cost - Construction (2005=100) 115 110 105 100 95 90 85 Source: OECD Q4-2010 Q3-2010 Q2-2010 Q1-2010 Q4-2009 Q3-2009 Q2-2009 Q1-2009 Q4-2008 Q3-2008 Q2-2008 Q1-2008 Q4-2007 Q3-2007 Q2-2007 80 The UK government's new transparency intitiatives A letter from PM David Cameron to Government departments on plans to open up Government data (31 May 2010): “New items of central government spending over £25,000 to be published online from November 2010.” “All new central government contracts to be published in full from January 2011.” “New items of local government spending over £500 to be published on a council-by-council basis from January 2011.” Source: http://www.number10.gov.uk/news/letter-to-governmentdepartments-on-opening-up-data/ If we fail to keep pace with China Industrial Revolution… Disclaimer All views, forecasts, and information, including investment recommendations and trading ideas, as well as any other information contained in this announcement is only for the purposes of information. It is non-binding and it represents the view of Raiffeisenbank. This announcement is not an offer or solicitation to purchase or sale of any financial assets or other financial instrument. Prior to making any investment decision Raiffeisenbank recommends to get detailed information on the planned investment or transaction. Raiffeisenbank elaborated this announcement with best professional care and in good faith. However, it does not guarantee the accuracy or completeness of its contents. Where the law permits, Raiffeisenbank and/or its employees may be engaged in any transaction or investment referred to in this announcement, as well as in any transaction or investment with the assets referred to in this announcement, or in related assets. Raiffeisenbank does not bear any liability for any damage or lost profit caused to any third parties through use of the information and data contained in this announcement. The investment recommendations created by the Economic Research Team and its employees, as well as the model portfolios, trading ideas, views, and forecasts, are only of a general character and intended for the public. They are not individualised or intended for specific parties in a specific financial situation, and they therefore do not constitute the service of investment consultancy as set forth in the Act 256/2004 Coll., on Capital Market Undertakings, as amended. For full information disclosure in accordance with the Decree 114/2006 Coll., on Fair Presentation of Investment Recommendations, see the Raiffeisenbank’s website, section Research –