Download Global Implications of Latino Population Growth

GLOBAL IMPLICATIONS OF LATINO
POPULATION GROWTH
AND THE SEARCH FOR COMMON
GROUND
Oregon State University
October 9, 2012
U.S. Hispanic Consumer –Global View
(as of 2012)
United States
($12.2 trillion)
Russia
China
($1.2T)
($3.5 trillion)
Brazil
($2.0T)
Source: World Bank, Selig Center for Economic Growth and LDC Calculations
Note: Nominal GDP, not adjusted for purchasing power parity
U.S.
Hispanics
India
($1.3T)
($1.2T)
Comparative GDP/capita for U.S. Hispanics
GDP per capita as of 2010 (est.)*
OECD Average: $39,997
BRIC Average:
$8,151
(10th)
(19th)
Source: World Bank, U.S. Census, Selig Center for Economic Growth and LDC Calculations.
* - Data for US Hispanics based on 2012 data.
Trade with Mexico: Exports Create U.S. Jobs
Top 3 U.S. Export Markets
($ in billions)
 Mexico is our 2nd largest market for exports
and the U.S. is the largest global market for
Mexican exports
 In 2011, U.S. exports to Mexico grew by $34
billion, the biggest dollar increase in U.S.
exports to any market worldwide
 Approximately 6 million U.S. jobs depend on
trade with Mexico
 “The growing middle class that is fast
becoming Mexico’s majority is buying more U.S.
goods than ever…” – Washington Post
Source: International Trade Administration (goods trade) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (services trade) and “Middle-class Mexicans snap up more products ‘Made in USA’”, Washington Post, September 9, 2012.
Trade with Latin America vs. China
Population
Total Trade (Exports + Imports)
(in millions)
($ in billions)
$847
$191
$488
$31
$656
$457
China
Forecast GDP Growth
Latin America
Goods
Services
8.0%
3.8%
China
At the current pace of projected economic
growth, U.S. trade with China would not
overcome Latin America until…
2024
In order to match trade with Latin
America by 2020, China would need
annual growth of…
12.3%
Latin America
Source: World Bank (population), Economist Intelligence Unit (GDP growth), International Trade Administration (goods trade) and Bureau of Economic Analysis (services trade)
THE SEARCH FOR COMMON
GROUND
Hispanics Widely Misunderstood…
33%
believe >50% “illegal”
Reality:
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Reality:
overestimate
only 17% of Hispanics are in the country illegally
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75%
80%
…of non-Hispanics associate
Hispanics with NOT speaking
English
 Hispanics learning English at same rates as past immigrants
 Nearly all 2nd generation Hispanics have mastered English
Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, U.S. Department of Homeland Security, and the Center for American Progress.
…Leading to Negative Stereotypes
Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, 2012.
Despite Some Positive Associations…
Non-Hispanics also think or associate Hispanics with…
Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, 2012 and Pew Hispanic Center.
And
Latinos believe…
…Media Coverage Reinforces the Negative
 Among Hispanic issues covered by the media, immigration
and the U.S.-Mexican border has the highest volume of
negative coverage, with nearly twice the volume of the
leading positive issue (H+K)
Hispanics’ economic
contributions, work ethic and religious faith comprises
less than half the volume of media coverage on the leading
 Positive
media
coverage
on
negative topic, immigration and the U.S.-Mexican border
Source: Hill & Knowlton Strategies, 2012.
Latino Growth in Key Demos
Projection of Latinos Age 18-34
Projection of Latinos Age 18-49
(in millions)
(in millions)
(24%)
(26%)
(22%)
(24%)
(21%)
(22%)
(20%)
(19%)
Source: U.S. Bureau of Census, Projections of the National Population, 2009
(19%)
(17%)
Progress on Key Metrics
Metric
Example
Value
Banking
Chairman or CEO, Top 10
banks by assets
N/A
0%
Academic
Institutions
President, top 50
undergraduate institutions
University of Texas
system
1 chancellor
Hollywood
Studios
Chief / Head top 10 studios by
box office revenue
N/A
none
Top
Foundations
President and Trustees, top 10
foundations by assets
Luis Ubiñas
(Ford Foundation)
1 president
5% trustees
Silicon
Valley
Chairman or CEO, Top 10 tech
companies by revenue
N/A
0%
Fortune 100
CEO of Fortune 100 companies
George Paz
(Express Scripts)
1 CEO
Source: Federal Reserve, U.S. News and World Report, School websites, Box Office Mojo, Studio websites, The Foundation Center, various Foundation websites, Fortune and The Wall Street Journal
3.7%
Fortune 100 board seats are held by Hispanics
3.0%
Fortune 500
1.5%
Fortune 1000
Source: Hispanic Association on Corporate Responsibility 2007 Corporate Governance Study; U.S. News & World Report; Alliance for Board Diversity Report, July 2011, and Korn/Ferry International
Progress of AZ-style Legislation
Original bill
amended in
response to
successful court
challenge
Tougher measures
subsequently failed
Enacted (5)
Pending (9)
Failed
Source: Based on data from the National Conference on State Legislatures, 2011-2012 and the National Council of La Raza
(15)
Conclusion
 Latinos are driving economic and population growth in the U.S.
 On the global stage, the U.S. Hispanic market represents the largest highgrowth market opportunity
 The level of trade between the U.S. and Latin America requires a refocusing of foreign policy
 Latinos are still grossly underrepresented in media – this lack of
representation leads to negative perceptions about Latinos
 However, we have A LOT of work remaining on elevating Latinos to the
leadership ranks of business, finance, technology, academia and politics