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Sun-Solar System Connection Strategic Roadmap Committee #10 Interim Status Report April 21, 2005 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap: Knowledge for Exploration Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the • Sun and its effects on • Earth, • the solar system, • the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and • demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems 2 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap External and Internal Factors • Our technological society needs space weather knowledge to function efficiently • Human beings require space weather predictions to work safely and productively in space • We are poised to provide knowledge and predictive understanding of the system 3 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Nature of the Challenge A quantitative, predictive understanding of a complex “system of systems” Microphysical processes regulate global & interplanetary structures Multi-constituent plasmas and complex photochemistry Non-linear dynamic responses http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap/NewZoom2.mov Integration and synthesis of multi-point observations Data assimilative models & theory Interdisciplinary communities and tools 4 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap We Have Already Begun! Space Storms at Earth Disturbed Mars-Space & Atmospheric Loss Dangerous Radiation Space Storms at the Outer Planets Disturbed Upper Atmosphere Solar System Blast Wave Current Sun-Earth missions provide a prototype “Great Observatory”, providing a first look at the system level view and informing the roadmap plan Theory, modeling, and observational tools now exist or can be developed to yield both transformational knowledge of the Sun-Earth system and provide needed tools and space weather knowledge for human exploration and societal needs 5 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Approach to Identify Priority Science Targets • Predictive capability for safe and productive exploration requires full understanding of a complex system of disparate systems • Priority goals enable significant progress in three essential areas: Understanding, Exploration, and Discovery • For example, discovery of near-Sun processes by Solar Probe provides transformational knowledge of the source of space weather enabling explorers to work safely and productively beyond Earth's magnetic shield Understand Science enabled by Exploration Priority Sun-Solar System Connection Science Science enabling Exploration Science that is Vital, Compelling & Urgent Explore Discover Science that transforms knowledge 6 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Sun-Solar System Connection Objectives Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Understand the fundamental physical processes of the space environment – from the Sun to Earth, to other planets, and beyond to the interstellar medium Understand the Nature of Our Home in Space Understand how human society, technological systems, and the habitability of planets are affected by solar variability and planetary magnetic fields Safeguard Our Outward Journey Maximize the safety and productivity of human and robotic explorers by developing the capability to predict the extreme and dynamic conditions in space 7 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Open the Frontier to Space Weather Prediction 1) Understand magnetic reconnection as revealed in solar flares, coronal mass ejections, and geospace storms 2) Understand the plasma processes that accelerate and transport particles throughout the solar system 3) Understand how nonlinear interactions transfer energy and momentum within planetary upper atmospheres. 4) Determine how solar, stellar, and planetary magnetic dynamos are created and why they vary. 8 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Understand the Nature of our Home in Space 1) Understand the causes and subsequent evolution of activity that affects Earth’s space climate and environment 2) Understand changes in the Earth’s magnetosphere, ionosphere, and upper atmosphere to enable specification, prediction, and mitigation of their effects 3) Understand the Sun's role as an energy source to the Earth’s atmosphere, particularly the role of solar variability in driving climate change 4) Apply our understanding of space plasma physics to the role of stellar activity and magnetic shielding in planetary system evolution and habitability 9 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Safeguard our Outward Journey 1) Characterize the variability and extremes of the space environments that will be encountered by human and robotic explorers 2) Develop the capability to predict the origin of solar activity and disturbances associated with potentially hazardous space weather. 3) Develop the capability to predict the acceleration and propagation of energetic particles in order to enable safe travel for human and robotic explorers 4) Understand how space weather affects planetary environments to minimize risk in exploration activities. 10 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Goal Structure Agency Strategic Objective: Explore the Sun-Earth system to understand the Sun and its effects on the Earth, the solar system, and the space environmental conditions that will be experienced by human explorers, and demonstrate technologies that can improve future operational systems Phase 1: 2005-2015 Phase 2: 2015-2025 • Measure magnetic reconnection at the Sun and Earth • Determine the dominant processes of particle acceleration • Set the critical scales over which cross- scale coupling occurs • Model the magnetic processes that drive space weather • Quantify particle acceleration for the key regions of exploration Understand the Nature of our Home in Space • Understand how solar disturbances propagate to Earth • Determine quantitative drivers of the geospace environment • Identify the impacts of solar variability on Earth’s atmosphere • Describe how space plasmas and planetary atmospheres interact • Identify precursors of important solar disturbances and predict the Earth’s response • Integrate solar variability effects into Earth climate models • Determine the habitability of solar system bodies Safeguard our Outward Journey • Determine extremes of the variable radiation and space environments at Earth, Moon, & Mars • Nowcast solar and space weather and forecast “All-Clear” periods for space explorers near Earth Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction • Characterize the near-Sun source region of the space environment • Reliably forecast space weather for the Earth-Moon system; make first space weather nowcasts at Mars • Determine Mars atmospheric variability relevant to aerocapture, entry, descent, landing, surface navigation and communications Phase 3: 2025-beyond • Predict solar magnetic activity and energy release • Predict high energy particle flux throughout the solar system. • Understand the coupling of disparate astrophysical systems • Continuously forecast conditions throughout the heliosphere • Predict climate change* • Determine how the habitability evolves in time • Image activity on other stars • Provide situational awareness of the space environment throughout the inner Solar System • Reliably predict atmospheric and radiation environment at Mars to ensure safe surface operations • Analyze the first direct samples of the interstellar medium • Develop technologies, observations, and knowledge systems that support operational systems 11 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Detailed Requirements Flow Down • U.S. mandate for Sun-Solar System Connection science and exploration determined research focus areas Illustration of requirements flow-down • Vision for Space Exploration led to scheduling of targeted outcomes • Each targeted outcome traced to required understanding and to focused, prioritized enabling capabilities and measurements • Missions, groups of missions, research, theory, and modeling program elements, are derived from capabilities and measurement requirements • Consolidation of priority outcomes show that many program elements contribute to multiple achievements and focus areas • Missions singly and together contribute unique and vital data to understand the system of systems • Mission studies at GSFC and JPL, including assessment of feasibility and maturity, categorized into cost classes: – Explorer (< $250M), strategic ($250M$500M), large strategic ($500M-$1B), flagship (>$1B) Requirement -flowdowns developed for each anticipated outcome. Prioritization of targeted outcomes informs final prioritization of program elements and mission concepts. Access current set of these flow diagrams at http://sun.stanford.edu/roadmap/flowdiagrams.html 12 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Program Implementation • The plan is designed to be robust - sufficiently flexible to facilitate adjustments as new knowledge is acquired, new discoveries are made, and transformational technologies are developed • A spiral development (“learn as you go”) approach is used providing key decision points between spirals • The spirals can be related to similar program elements of the Exploration Initiatives, with Spiral (n-1) for SSSC informing spiral (n) for human exploration. Thus, for example, accomplishments of SSSC Spiral 2 will inform human exploration Spiral 3 • First spiral is already underway, utilizing current program assets and nearterm launches • Subsequent spirals are focused on developing the new knowledge base, new understanding, and the new predictive capability that will enable safe and productive exploration activities 13 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap From Goals to Implementation Spiral Phase 1 Sun-Earth-Moon System Characterization of System Spiral Phase 2 Sun - Terrestrial Planets Modeling of System Elements Spiral Phase 3 Sun-Solar System System Forecasting Joint Sun-Earth Science Characterize Environments Magnetic reconnection Particle acceleration processes Impacts of solar variability on Earth & Mars Atmospheric response to external drivers Drivers of cislunar space weather Exploration Systems Timeline Informs Lunar Exploration 2005 Model Systems Drivers of climate and habitability Inner heliosphere radiation & space weather forecasts Forecast space weather for society & explorers Sample interstellar medium Reliable Predictions for all Uses of Space Local Space Weather Forecasts for Operations Space Weather Impacts on System Design Crew Exploration Vehicle Robotic Lunar Exploration Measure near-Sun space environment Physical models of important space weather processes Predict solar, heliospheric & stellar activity Forecast Hazards Informs Mars Exploration Human/Robotic Lunar Surface Exploration 2015 Extended Human Operations on Lunar Surface Mars Space Weather Operations Human Exploration in the Vicinity of Mars 2025 Human Exploration of Mars 2035 14 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Mission Planning Spiral Phase 1 Sun-Earth-Moon System Characterization of System Spiral Phase 2 Sun - Terrestrial Planets Modeling of System Elements Spiral Phase 3 Sun-Solar System System Forecasting Future Mission Candidates Solar: : SDO, Solar-B CMEs & Heliosphere: Solar Processes: Solar System Space Weather: MTRAP, RAM, Solar Orbiter, SPI STEREO, Sentinels DBC, SEPP, SIRA, SWBuoys Radiation:: Heliospheric Structure & Disturbances: Mars Space Weather: RBSP, Sentinels Doppler, HIGO, Telemachus Planetary Orbiters: Geospace Impacts: Geospace System Impacts: JPO, NO, VAP THEMIS, MMS, RBSP, ITSP AMS, GEC, GEMINI, ITMW, MagCon, T-ITMC Interstellar Medium: Climate Impacts:: Climate Impacts: Interstellar Probe SDO, AIM JANUS, SECEP Habitability: Moon, Mars Awareness:: Mars Atmosphere: Stellar Imager LRO, MSL, ITSP Mars Aeronomy, Mars Dynamics Interstellar Boundary: Space Weather Stations: Mars-GOES Heliostorm, L1 Diamond, SHIELDS IBEX Inner Boundary:: Forecast Hazards Solar Probe Already In Development or Formulation Explorer Partnership Recommended 2005 Characterize Environments Model Systems 2015 2025 2035 Final mission recommendations for Phases 2 and 3 to be determined during the May 10-13 Roadmap Meetings. This assignment of missions by phase is driven primarily by resource availability. Benefits of progressive space weather capability may be realized earlier through acceleration of phased mission queue. 15 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Sun-Solar System Connection Summary Already In Development or Formulation Explorer Partnership Recommended Science Questions Goals Implementation Open the Frontier to Space Environment Prediction Sample vast range with frequent small observatories Strategic missions planned for critical scientific exploration and for space weather understanding Understand the Nature of our Home in Space Safeguard our outbound Journey Select low-cost Explorer opportunity missions for fast response as knowledge changes Utilize low-cost extended missions to gain solar system scale understanding - Great Observatory “sensor web” Disseminate data for environmental modeling via distributed Virtual Observatories Investigations Phase 1 missions: -Solar: SDO, Solar-B -CMEs & Helio: STEREO, Sentinels -Radiation: RBSP, Sentinels -Geospace Impact: MMS, THEMIS, RBSP, ITSP -Earth Impacts: SDO, AIM -Moon, Mars Awareness: LRO, MSL, ITSP -Interstellar Boundary: IBEX -Inner Boundary: Solar Probe Phase 2 Missions: -Solar magnetic processes -Impacts to geospace system -Mars atmosphere -Heliospheric structure & disturbances Achievements Phase 1: -Solar System Space Weather -Mars space weather -Venus, Jupiter, Neptune orbiters -Interstellar sample return -Stellar cycles Phase 1 New Magnetic reconnection Particle acceleration processes Drivers of cis-lunar space weather Impacts of solar variability on Earth and Mars Phase 2: Knowledge Safe and Physical models of important space weather processes Inner heliosphere radiation & space weather forecasts Atmospheric response to external drivers Measure near-Sun space environment Phase 3: Phase 3 Missions: Impacts Predict solar, heliospheric & stellar activity Drivers of climate and habitability Sample Interstellar medium Forecast space weather for society and explorers Productive Space Operations Space Weather Mitigation Decision Support Tools Future Scientists & Engineers NASA & partner producers of SSSC science information Users of SSSC science information 16 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Near-Term Priorities and Gaps 1. Exploit the existing Sun-Solar System Great Observatory in service of space weather research – Integrate LWS Ionosphere-Thermosphere Storm Probes (ITSP or ITM) into the Great Observatory to discover the science enabling the creation of space weather models at Earth. This science and these models will form the foundation upon which the Mars space environment and its evolution, including the Martian atmosphere, will be understood. Solar Probe Sentinels 2. Take the next development step for the Sun-Solar System Connection Great Observatory: IT Storm Probes – Fly LWS Solar Probe through the Sun's atmosphere to explore inner boundary of our system and directly sample the source region of the solar wind and solar energetic particles for the first time – Deploy LWS Solar Sentinels to discover the heliospheric initiation, propagation and solar connection of those energetic phenomena that adversely affect space exploration and life and society here on Earth 17 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Human Capital and Infrastructure So that we may develop/maintain U.S. space plasma and space weather prediction / mitigation expertise, it is vital to provide a broad range of competed funding opportunities for the scientific community Science Investigations: • Solar Terrestrial Probes (STP) • Living with a Star (LWS) • Explorer Program • Discovery Program • Sun-Solar System Great Observatory Research Programs: • Research and Analysis Grants • Guest Investigator • Theory Program • Targeted Research & Technology • Project Columbia Develop IT, Computing, Modeling and Analysis Infrastructure • Virtual Observatories Low Cost Access to Space • Science, Training, & Instrument Development E/PO to Attract Workers to Earth-Sun Systems Science Maintain Multiple Hardware & Modeling Groups • Strengthen University Involvement in Space Hardware Development • Facilitate and Exploit Partnerships • Interagency and International Upgrade DSN to Collect More Data Throughout the Solar System Enabling Capabilities: Sounding Rocket/Balloon Program Advanced Technology Program Education and Public Outreach 18 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap External Partnerships Partnership Forums: • International Living with a Star • International Heliophysical Year • Enabling Space Weather Predictions for the International Space Environment Service • National Space Weather Program Current Partnership Missions: •Ulysses (ESA) •SoHO (ESA) •Cluster (ESA) •Geotail (JAXA) •Solar-B (JAXA) Future Partnership Missions: •Solar Orbiter (ESA) National Partners: •National Science Foundation •National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration •NOAA Space Environment Center •Department of Commerce • Department of Defense •Department of Transportation •Department of Energy •Department of the Interior 19 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Technology Development • Answering science questions requires measurements at unique vantage points in and outside the solar system – Cost-effective, high-∆V propulsion and deep space power – CRM-1: High energy power & propulsion—nuclear electric propulsion, RTGs – CRM-2: In-space transportation—solar sails – CRM-15: Nanotechnology—carbon nanotube membranes for sails • Resolving space-time ambiguities requires simultaneous in-situ measurements (constellations or sensor webs) – Compact, affordable spacecraft via low-power electronics — CRM-3: Advanced telescopes & observatories – Low-cost access to space – CRM-10: Transformational spaceport • Return of large data sets from throughout the solar system – Next-generation, Deep Space Network – CRM-5: Communication and Navigation • Visualization, analysis and modeling of plasma data – CRM-13: Advanced modeling/simulation/analysis • New measurement techniques – compact, instrumentation suites – Next generation of Sun-Solar System instrumentation – CRM-11: Scientific instruments & sensors – CRM-15: Nanotechnology 20 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Education and Public Outreach Education and Public Outreach is Essential to the Achievement of the Exploration Vision – Emphasis on workforce development – Requires increase in the capacity of our nation’s education systems (K-16) – Entrain under-represented communities in STEM careers (demographic projections to 2025 underscore this need) Roadmap committee #10 has focused on: – Close up look at role national science education standards play in effectively connecting NASA content to formal education – Importance of E/PO to achievement of Exploration Vision – Identification of unique E/PO opportunities – Articulation of challenges and recommendations for effective E/PO Unique E/PO opportunities associated with SSSC science Living With a Star Study the Sun to learn about stars Role of Solar variability in Earth’s climate Space Weather for Earth & Exploration Analogy with terrestrial weather/climate Conditions changing all the time Need for situational awareness Protecting space explorers Magnetism Invisible force: “seeing the invisible” Magnetism vs gravity; significance of magnetism in Solar System and Universe Magnetic shields and planetary habitability Electromagnetic Spectrum Plasma State of matter depends on location Propulsion Solar sails for space travel Suborbital rockets -it really is rocket science Tools, technology, Suborbital rockets - opportunity to "go to space" scientific methods Large, high-resolution data sets, powerful images Modeling, visualization, simulation key to science Engaging the Public Eclipses, Transits, Auroras Solar flares, coronal mass ejections, solar storms 21 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Integration: Human and Robotic Flight Sun-Solar System Connections receives contributes • Space environment specification for materials and technology requirements definition. • Prediction of solar activity and its impact on planetary and interplanetary environments as an operational element of Exploration. Examples: presence of penetrating radiation (hazardous to health and microcircuitry); varying ionization/scintillations (interferes with communications and navigation); increased atmospheric scale heights (enhanced frictional drag). Lunar Exploration SRM1 Mars Exploration SRM2 Exploration Transportation SRM5 Space Station SRM6 Space Shuttle SRM7 Primary interfaces involve understanding of the physical processes associated with the dynamics of space plasmas and electromagnetic fields 22 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Integration: Science Sun-Solar System Connections receives contributes • Electrostatics & Charging Processes Lunar Exploration SRM1 • Mars Aeronomy and Ionosphere • Atmospheric Loss; Habitability Mars Exploration SRM2 Solar System Exploration SRM3 • Sun/Climate Connection • Societal impacts of space weather processes • The Sun as a magnetic variable Star • Fundamental plasma processes • History of the Solar Wind • Platforms for investigations of comparative magnetospheres/ionospheres; exploration of heliosphere and interstellar medium Earth System and Dynamics SRM9 Exploration of the Universe SRM8 Primary interfaces involve understanding of the physical processes associated with the dynamics of space plasmas and electromagnetic fields 23 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Integration: Major Capability Relationships #1 Integration: Major Capability Relationships #1 Sun-Solar System Connections receives contributes High Energy Power & Propulsion In-Space Transportation • • • • • Communication and Navigation CRM5 Characterization, modeling, and prediction of planetary environments; Robotic Access to Planetary Surfaces CRM6 Characterization, modeling, and prediction of planetary environments; Human Planetary Landing Systems CRM7 Human Health and Support System CRM8 Human Exploration Systems & Mobility CRM9 Characterization, modeling, and prediction of planetary environments; • Development of in-space propulsion such as provided by solar sails; • Space interferometry in UV, and compact affordable platforms for clusters & constellations • High band width deep space communication CRM3 CRM4 Characterization, modeling, and prediction of space environments; High energy power and propulsion to reach unique vantage points and operate there; CRM2 Advanced Telescopes and Observatories Now-casting and fore-casting of space weather • 24 NASA Sun-Solar System Connection Roadmap Integration: Major Capability Relationships #1 Integration: Major Capability Relationships #2 Sun-Solar System Connections receives contributes Autonomous Systems & Robotics CRM10 Transformation Spaceport/Range contributes expertise & experience in techniques for space resource detection and location In-Situ Resource Utilization • low-cost space access via rockets, secondary payload accommodation, and low cost launchers; • an array of new technologies that enable affordable synoptic observation program; • advanced data assimilation from diverse sources and advanced model/simulation techniques for space weather prediction; • best practices required across the board; • advanced carbon membranes for solar sails; cross cutting technology beneficial to many missions; CRM13 Advanced Modeling/Simulation /Analysis CRM14 Systems Engineering Cost/Risk Analysis sensor web technology; affordable operations for constellations CRM11 Scientific Instruments & Sensors CRM12 • • CRM15 Nanotechnology CRM16 25