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Preliminary Report on a Proposed Social Science Observing System for Coastal North Carolina East Carolina University April 27, 2010 1 Participants: Larry Babits, Department of History, East Carolina University Paul Bin, Department of Economics, East Carolina University Dean Carpenter, Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program Robert Christian, Department of Biology, East Carolina University Reide Corbett, Department of Geological Sciences and ICSP, East Carolina University Tom Crawford, Department of Geography, East Carolina University Jennifer Dorton, Center for Marine Science, UNC - Wilmington Chris Ellis, NOAA, Coastal Services Center Holly Hapke, Department of Geography, East Carolina University Zackary Johnson, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University Donna Kain, Department of English, East Carolina University Craig Landry, Department of Economics, East Carolina University Jingyuan Li, Coastal Resources Management Program, East Carolina University Dan Marcucci, Department of Geography, East Carolina University Montz, Burrell, Department of Geography, East Carolina University Harvey Seim, Department of Marine Sciences, UNC – Chapel Hill Catherine Smith, Department of English, East Carolina University Jack Thigpen, North Carolina Sea Grant Tracy Van Holt, Department of Geography and ICSP, East Carolina University Hans Vogelsong, Coastal Resources Management Program, East Carolina University Jeff Warren, North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources 2 Social Science Observing Workshop Report Introduction There are numerous observing systems at the global, national, and regional scales, most of which are focused on observing physical phenomena of the natural environment. Recognition is growing that an additional and complementary effort centered on social and cultural phenomena is essential. Because social sciences specialize in characterizing human dimensions and lived experience of phenomena, they can contribute generally to understanding of human-nature and human-human interactions and impacts of those interactions. As a practical application, social scientists’ knowledge of individual and group processes can help natural scientists’ to prioritize their efforts and data collection and to engage information end-users. This report documents the discussion and recommendations of a workshop held in April 2010 at East Carolina University to discuss how such a social and cultural observing system might be focused and structured. Similar to the proposed North Carolina Integrated Coastal Observing System, “the primary purpose ... is to provide products and information useful to specific management applications as efficiently and effectively as possible,” focusing, in this case, on social science. The group met for a day and discussed the following questions, both as a whole and in smaller break out groups: • What are the most important/relevant coastal issues and opportunities for the next X years? • What are the needs of the State over both the short and long terms? • What are the data needs, at what scales, and with what characteristics? • What would the structure of such a system look like? Although discussion focused on social science, it was not divorced from natural science. Instead the efforts were seen as complementary and interactive. An underlying theme was: how can social science affect current observing systems and make them better, especially given that social science can create solutions for problems that are identified by natural science? The following sections address the questions listed above in order to set the stage for continuing discussion and for development of a proposal to implement such a system. Thus, this is the first step in a larger and broader discussion both within North Carolina and with other entities interested in social science observatories. Issues, Opportunities, and Needs Emerging from a synthesis of group discussions was a list of key issues that a social science observing system would be well positioned to support: (1) climate change, (2) energy development, and (3) population growth and land use change. This list of issues includes those identified as most salient to coastal North Carolina now and into the future. An array of subtopics falls within the three identified issues that are not mutually exclusive, but rather illustrate: a. the difficulty inherent in defining discrete topics on which we might concentrate our efforts and 3 b. the ways in which observations and findings associated with one issue can benefit our understanding of another. Under each of the three broad issues are lists of associated subtopics and concerns that, in various combinations, help to define the issues and provide guidance for the types of data that may be appropriate. Underlying each of the issues below is the theme of sustainability and the economic, social, cultural, and political factors that come to define sustainability at a location. Among the sectors in which this is particularly critical in coastal North Carolina are tourism, agriculture, forestry, and military, which define much of the area’s economic foundation. Climate change In addition to the measurable changes associated with sea level rise, erosion, and weather hazards, so too are there impacts associated with land use, resource availability, and human perceptions of causes, effects, and vulnerability. Climate change is anticipated to have significant impacts that have social components and require tracking over time and from place to place, including: • Accelerated erosion • Marsh loss • Salt water intrusion • Flooding • Habitat loss • Changes in fisheries • Changing agricultural base and productivity • Changing valuation of land and changing tax bases • Changes in land use planning, zoning, and permitting • Loss of archeological sites These impacts of climate change will directly and indirectly affect human uses of coastal areas, some of which are in competition with one another. Thus, determining stakeholder needs and variable vulnerabilities to the impacts is critical to modeling human-environment relationships as they affect and are affected by climate change. This leads to some opportunities for developing better integrative models of coupled natural and human systems over different spatial and temporal scales. In addition to facilitating more traditional impact assessments of changing environmental characteristics on human well-being (including health, access to resources, economics, and quality of life), the opportunity then exists for “flipping” the dependent variable to analyze the give and take between social and natural systems, or evaluating the impact of stressors on humans and of humans on stressors. As mentioned above, there are numerous competing interests in coastal areas, all of which will be affected in one way or another by climate change – but they will not be affected equally nor will all be affected negatively or at the same time in the same place. For instance, climate change leads to the loss of archaeological sites due to increased erosion and sea level rise; these sites are non-renewable resources. The institutional and organizational frameworks that exist are not currently positioned to address issues associated with climate change and sea level rise. Indeed, regulatory structures are not coordinated, are often conflicting, and can be confusing. Thus, a need exists in the state to assess the policy environment within and across levels of governance and within and across sectors in the coastal region. 4 Energy Development An emerging issue along the US coast is that of energy development, including wind, wave, and tidal energy and fossil fuels, particularly offshore drilling. Both are anticipated to have impacts on: • Tourism, including heritage tourism • Land use • Property values • Destination images • Aesthetics • Marine ecosystems • Economic growth and development In addition, there are additional issues, depending on the type of energy. As the BP disaster in the Gulf of Mexico has shown, offshore oil drilling can create serious environmental, economic, and social problems. While it might be expected that new offshore drilling projects will be on hold for some time, over the long term, it is likely that such oil production will resume. North Carolina can expect to see its share of proposed developments. It would make sense to consider such a possibility as an observing system is developed. Offshore (and even onshore) wind energy sets the stage for conflicts, again among competing uses, based on differing goals, attitudes, and perceptions. The set of issues presented above lends itself to development of comparative models that project a range of land use and land value scenarios under varying future conditions, at different spatial and temporal scales. Being able to take advantage of this opportunity requires the collection of relevant data in an organized and systematic manner at different locations, encompassing varying time frames. This offers important opportunities to incorporate the considerations detailed in this section into larger models, including those addressing coupled natural and human systems. At the same time, it lends itself to incorporating such social considerations as quality of life, sense of place, and social justice. With an observing system, these can be tracked over time and incorporated into subsequent analyses. As with climate change, there is a need for the state to think comprehensively from a policy perspective and from a social perspective. The competing interests around energy development may well be polarized. Again, as above, stakeholder needs and priorities are critical considerations, as they exist and as they change (or do not) over time. How do current governance and regulatory systems address needs, conflicts, and decision-making structures? What changes are needed? And, once changes are in effect, how are they addressing the needs? Population Growth and Land Use Change Although distributed unequally geographically, coastal North Carolina populations have been generally increasing over time, relating to amenity, economic, and environmental pull factors. This increase has impacts on both the socio-economic environment and on the physical environment (which feeds back to affect the socio-economic environment). With population growth comes a transition in land use, from undeveloped (including agricultural) to built, as well 5 as changes in land value. For some, this is a positive change, as, for instance, the economic base of the region increases. For others it is not, as gentrification makes it difficult for those with roots in the region to afford the location. In addition, some of what is now undeveloped land has not always been so, and the archaeological resources associated with that land are also at risk. With new development may come a sense of newness and vibrancy, or a loss of tradition and sense of place, or some combination. At the same time, from a natural environmental perspective, population growth and land use change lead to • Increased impervious surfaces • Habitat loss • Changes in water quality • Aquifer depletion • Increased waste generation • Loss of archaeological sites and heritage tourism opportunities As seen in the two previous sections, modeling is strengthened if these social, economic, and environmental factors are analyzed together at different spatial and temporal scales. At the same time, some of these impacts do not lend themselves to numerical modeling, such as measuring changes in sense of place, quality of life, and loss of local traditions and archaeology. Yet, these are equally important. There exist numerous opportunities to build on the past, using the archaeological and historical record, to understand these characteristics as they once were, and then to develop measures and indicators to document changes into the future – and to use the past to help us understand how changes will play out. Setting a baseline is important to understanding the positive and negative impacts of population growth and land use change. Thus, we need to develop a consensus on where to start measuring social, demographic, and economic change. At the same time, it is important to determine how different governmental and other organizational/institutional entities view and address these changes. Because impacts cross political boundaries and because one area’s use of resources affects other areas, regional coordination with respect is critical. This involves integrating and prioritizing issues and goals – which can only be accomplished once data and other indicators of impacts are available. Needs of North Carolina Although needs were identified under individual categories that mostly relate to governmental and institutional frameworks, there are additional needs that were identified that transcend the categories, but that can influence the structure of such an observing system. Those identified include: • Communication strategies for different populations • Prioritization of allocation of natural resources • Incorporation of social justice issues • Incorporation of historic and archaeological resources • An increase in overall human health • An increase in overall quality of life • Greater access to existing and new data 6 The items listed above, in combination with those detailed in the previous sub-sections, speak to an overriding need for determining common, large scale regional questions to which the social science observing system can be directed. Summary The three key issues identified for coastal North Carolina are not separate. Several common themes can be seen: (1) climate change, (2) energy development, and (3) population growth and land use change. First, vulnerability of the North Carolina coast is increasing because of the impacts of climate change, opportunities and pressures for energy development, and increased numbers of people and property in these hazardous areas. Second, the coast offers a diversity of resources that are being utilized by different interests with sometimes competing goals. Third, institutional arrangements are not structured to address many of these issues, particularly those which appear to be uncertain. Finally, humans interact with the coastal natural and built environments as both drivers of change and as responders to change. Therefore, a social science observing system, in concert with a natural science observing system, offers a means of collecting and utilizing data (broadly defined) to foster understanding of ways to reduce or minimize the negative impacts of sea level rise, natural hazards, and other climate related changes and to protect and enhance the quality and diversity of coastal resources. Data Needs Given the rather broad ranging issues that are seen to characterize the nature and future of North Carolina’s coastal region, the data necessary to address these issues are equally wide ranging. In addition to suggesting the types of data that should be collected through a social science observatory, participants in the workshop also addressed the kinds of questions, trends, and relationships that should and could be investigated using the data. This section first presents a table that lists the data needs that were identified, and then turns to the second topic, that of how the data might be used. The data in Table 1 are not exhaustive but, rather, are illustrative of the kinds of data seen to be important to this effort. They are presented as a starting point. As plans for the observatory move forward, much more attention on data needs is required, including developing temporal and spatial parameters as well as collection protocols. It should also be noted that the data listed in the table are, necessarily, at different scales and thus involve different data collection strategies. Table 1. Identified Data Needs Demographic Data Age Race Gender Household income Occupation Education level Tenure characteristics House stock and type Car registrations Population change Economic Data Employment Property values Tax values Housing starts Service industry Number of jobs Pay rates Number of entities Fishing, forestry industries Number of jobs/licenses 7 Land Use Data Land uses Types Acres Number of parcels Trends Historic patterns Value Land cover Types Acres Seasonal population Resource consumption Energy Water Waste produced Impervious surfaces Attitudes/Perceptions Risk Vulnerability Quality of life Development trends Land use trends Aesthetics Health Characteristics Facilities Government Political Voting records Local participation Communication technology Accessibility Demographics of media users Pay rates Processing facilities Harvesting statistics Trends in technology Industry, manufacturing Number of jobs Pay rates Number of facilities Production types/rates Trends in technology Military Numbers in region Trends Directly related jobs Indirectly related jobs Tourism Number of facilities by type Capacities Occupancy rates Expenditures Activity types Day visitors Length of stay trends Trends Historic patterns Land use plans Zoning Plans and permits Future patterns Infrastructure Roads Water supply Sewer lines Septic tanks usage Energy Landfills Locations Size Quantities received Biodiversity Measures Trends Ecosystem services Archaeological sites Known Potential Source location Recreation industry Number of facilities Type of facilities Source location of participants Expenditures Boat licenses Fishing/hunting licenses Experience sought Agriculture Farm numbers and size Crops and animals Value produced Expenditures Much of the data shown in Table 1 is available from such sources as the Census Bureau, the Bureau of Labor and Statistics, and state, county, and municipal offices. A preliminary list of existing datasets, as identified at the workshop includes: • Historical records • County tax data and zoning • Building permits: local and CAMA permits • Commercial fishing licenses 8 • Recreational saltwater fishing licenses • Hunting licenses • Public health data: ER visits (morbidity and mortality) • Occupancy rates • Lifesaving data sets (USLA) • Boater registration • USCG accident reports • County landfill (tonnage/month) • Economic multipliers (secondary and induced economic impacts) • Satellite imagery • Tax photos • LIDAR data • Previous research studies, secondary data that can be mined These data are in various formats, with varying temporal and spatial resolutions, requiring considerable planning and collaboration among social scientists from different disciplines as well as with natural scientists to determine appropriate types, scales, and configurations. Thus, having data already available is a benefit but significant effort is required to insure its utility over time and to a diversity of purposes. While having data sets such as those shown in Table 1 will set the stage for a social science observing system, it is more than raw data that will comprise the system. Instead, it is in analysis of the interactions among variables that many important questions and relationships can be addressed. Examples include: • Impacts of population numbers and trends on water quality and infrastructure o Septic vs. sewer o Development density o Impervious surfaces o Fishery and terrestrial wildlife habitat • Shoreline development trends and damage/inundation predictions • Changing ecological footprints • Changes in fishery stocks related to climate change and/or anthropogenic impacts • Water quality and public health • Water quality and critical infrastructure • Land use trends and development trends o Impacts on historical/archaeological sites damage to heritage tourism – more of a financial impact damage to heritage – less of a financial impact? o Impacts water quality, infrastructure and environmental carrying capacity • Resource use/unit (eg., per person, per acre) o Power, water, trash o Linking demand to resource availability (i.e., water demand and links to drought) • Carbon footprint of tourists vs. residents • Population density and water quality storm damage • Beach width effects on rental patterns, property values o social carrying capacity • Coastal vulnerability trends and developing a coastal vulnerability index or measure 9 These social science data and their application to different issues and questions have great utility in and of themselves. They can assist in developing, justifying, and applying policy decisions. They can provide a foundation for changes in local and regional plans and priorities. They can help understand the basis of past trends and project future scenarios, in the face of the uncertainties that define the current and future coastal environment. At the same time, these data and use of them to address various questions can help determine what natural science approach to use, while at the same time fostering understanding about the impacts and importance of natural science observing and research. Thus, while a social science observing system is important because of the issues it can address, it also ties the social sciences into other observing systems. This has additional benefits, as social scientists are better than natural scientists at stakeholder engagement and highlighting needs, and the social sciences can add relevancy to the products and services developed. System Structure Deciding what a social science observing system should/could address is one task. A much more difficult task is developing the structure of the system – an undertaking that requires more time than we had available. On one hand, there are a number of observing systems already in existence at different spatial scales, from the global (for example, the Global Climate Observing System (GCOS), and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)), to the national (for example, the Integrated Ocean Observing System IOOS) and the regional (such as that overseen by the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA)). There is a great deal to learn from the experiences (both good and bad) of these systems including decisions on: • geographic limits • specific variables • direct and indirect indicators and effects, and • data storage, management, and access. There are other analogous structures from which this system can learn, including the South Atlantic Regional Research Plan, the South Atlantic Alliance and the Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program (APNEP) Indicators. At the same time, social science data collection is a very different process than much of the instrument based data collection that occurs with natural science observing. On one hand, it would be useful if the system could be structured such that, as one participant put it, “my survey is like a buoy,” continuously collecting and transmitting primary data in a manner similar to oceanographic buoy data. Unfortunately, that is very difficult given the range of data needs, necessary variations in collection strategies and approaches, and differences in data types, formats, and measurability, thus leading to compatibility problems. This makes social science observing a very expensive undertaking, in large part because it is so personnel intensive. This necessitates the close evaluation of available secondary data as a surrogate in many cases. Given these issues, the group developed a set of characteristics or standards that should frame development of the system. These include: • Interoperability • An open source format 10 • • • • • A centralized access point with distributed responsibility for data collection and data management Internet based tools to insure functionality Standardization of data collection by type/topic/category Multiple scales of data collection and management, including temporal, spatial, social, and governance scales Dedicated personnel A great deal remains to be determined regarding the structure of the system, and this involves, among other activities, research into existing and proposed systems that aim to achieve similar goals. It is hoped that this report sets the stage for continued work to develop this important observing system. 11