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New Law in North Carolina Bans Latest Scientific Predictions of Sea-Level Rise
Aug. 2, 2012, By ALON HARISH via 20/20
People walk near a house damaged by Tropical Storm Hanna
September 6, 2008 in Ocean Isle, North Carolina. Logan MockBunting/Getty Images
A new law in North Carolina will ban the state
from basing coastal policies on the latest
scientific predictions of how much the sea level
will rise, prompting environmentalists to accuse
the state of disrespecting climate science.
The law has put the state in the spotlight for
what critics have called nearsightedness and
climate change denial, but its proponents said
the state needed to put a moratorium on
predictions of sea level rise until scientific
techniques improve.
The law was drafted in response to an estimate
by the state's Coastal Resources Commission
(CRC) that the sea level will rise by 39 inches in
the next century, prompting fears of costlier
home insurance and accusations of antidevelopment alarmism among residents and
developers in the state's coastal Outer Banks
region.
Democratic Gov. Bev Perdue had until
Thursday to act on the bill known as House Bill
819, but she decided to let it become law by
doing nothing.
The bill's passage in June triggered nationwide
scorn by those who argued that the state was
deliberately blinding itself to the effects of
climate change. In a segment on the "Colbert
Report," comedian Stephen Colbert mocked
North Carolina lawmakers' efforts as an attempt
to outlaw science.
"If your science gives you a result you don't
like, pass a law saying the result is illegal.
Problem solved," he joked.
The law, which began as a routine regulation on
development permits but quickly grew
controversial after the sea-level provision was
added, restricts all sea-level predictions used to
guide state policies for the next four years to
those based on "historical data."
Tom Thompson, president of NC-20, a coastal
development group and a key supporter of the
law, said the science used to make the 39-inch
prediction was flawed, and added that the
resources commission failed to consider the
economic consequences of preparing the coast
for a one-meter rise in sea level, under which up
to 2,000 square miles would be threatened.
A projection map showing land along the coast
underwater would place the permits of many
planned development projects in jeopardy.
Numerous new flood zone areas would have to
be drawn, new waste treatment plants would
have to be built, and roads would have to be
elevated. The endeavor would cost the state
hundreds of millions of dollars, Thompson said.
"I don't want to say they're being dishonest, but
they're pulling data out of their hip pocket that
ain't working," he said of the commission panel
that issued the prediction, the middle in a range
of three predictions.
Thompson, who denies global warming, said the
prediction was based on measurements at a
point on the North Carolina coast that is
unrepresentative of the rest of the coast.
But the costs Thompson decries as wasteful are
to the law's opponents a necessary pill the state
must swallow if it is going to face up to the
challenge of protecting the coast from the
effects of climate change.
State Rep. Deborah Ross, a forceful critic of the
bill, compared it to burying one's "head in the
sand."
"I go to the doctor every year. If I'm not fine, I'd
rather know now than in four years," said Ross,
a Democrat who represents inland Greensboro,
N.C., but owns property on the coast. "This is
like going to the doctor and saying you're not
going to get a test on a problem."
Its supporters counter that the law does not force
the state to close its eyes to reality, but rather to
base policy on more than a single model that
produced what they believe are extreme results.
Republican State Rep. Pat McElraft, who
drafted the law, called the law a "breather" that
allows the state to "step back" and continue
studying sea -level rise for the next several years
with the goal of achieving a more accurate
prediction model.
"Most of the environmental side say we're
ignoring science, but the bill actually asks for
more science," she said. "We're not ignoring
science, we're asking for the best science
possible, the best extrapolation possible, looking
at the historical data also. We just need to make
sure that we're getting the proper answers."
As it thrust North Carolina into a national
debate about climate politics, the bill became a
lightning rod at home.
A spokeswoman for Gov. Perdue said her office
received 3,400 emails opposing the bill in the
first week after it passed the Republicancontrolled state legislature.
According to the U.S. Geological Survey
(USGS), sea level rise along the portion of the
East Coast between North Carolina and
Massachusetts is accelerating at three to four
times the global rate. A USGS report published
in the journal Nature Climate Change in June
predicted that sea level along the coast of that
region, which it called a "hotspot," would rise
up to 11.4 inches higher than the global average
rise by the end of the 21st century.
The historical political clout wielded by North
Carolina's developers has led some critics of the
law to accuse legislators backing it to promote
those who line the pockets of their campaigns.
The largest industry contributors to McElraft's
campaigns have been real estate agents and
developers, according to the National Institute
on Money in State Politics. Her top contributor
since she was elected to the General Assembly
in 2007 has been the North Carolina Association
of Realtors, followed by the North Carolina
Home Builders' Association.
McElraft, who is a former real estate agent and
lives on Barrier Island off the coast, denied that
campaign contributions ever influence her
decisions as a lawmaker, and said her votes
have not always favored increased development.
More than simply protecting developers, the
new law protects homeowners from an
overactive state government that would take
away their right to build on their own property,
McElraft said. Given an increased projected risk
of flooding, insurance companies would likely
charge coastal property owners, who already
pay higher premiums, a concern Rep. Ross said
she shared.
Ross, though, said she would rather pay for a
more expensive insurance policy on her coastal
home than be uncertain about whether it will be
wiped out by the Atlantic Ocean in a few
decades.
Gov. Perdue released a statement Thursday that
gave a qualified endorsement of the law while
urging lawmakers to develop a coherent
approach to sea-level rise.
"North Carolina should not ignore science when
making public policy decisions. House Bill 819
will become law because it allows local
governments to use their own scientific studies
to define rates of sea level change," Perdue
wrote.
"I urge the General Assembly to revisit this
issue and develop an approach that gives state
agencies the flexibility to take appropriate
action in response to sea level change within the
next four years."