Download Preliminary Report on a Proposed Social Science Observing System for

Preliminary Report on a Proposed
Social Science Observing System for
Coastal North Carolina
East Carolina University
April 27, 2010
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Participants:
Larry Babits, Department of History, East Carolina University
Paul Bin, Department of Economics, East Carolina University
Dean Carpenter, Albemarle-Pamlico National Estuary Program
Robert Christian, Department of Biology, East Carolina University
Reide Corbett, Department of Geological Sciences and ICSP, East Carolina University
Tom Crawford, Department of Geography, East Carolina University
Jennifer Dorton, Center for Marine Science, UNC - Wilmington
Chris Ellis, NOAA, Coastal Services Center
Holly Hapke, Department of Geography, East Carolina University
Zackary Johnson, Nicholas School of the Environment, Duke University
Donna Kain, Department of English, East Carolina University
Craig Landry, Department of Economics, East Carolina University
Jingyuan Li, Coastal Resources Management Program, East Carolina University
Dan Marcucci, Department of Geography, East Carolina University
Montz, Burrell, Department of Geography, East Carolina University
Harvey Seim, Department of Marine Sciences, UNC – Chapel Hill
Catherine Smith, Department of English, East Carolina University
Jack Thigpen, North Carolina Sea Grant
Tracy Van Holt, Department of Geography and ICSP, East Carolina University
Hans Vogelsong, Coastal Resources Management Program, East Carolina University
Jeff Warren, North Carolina Department of Environment and Natural Resources
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Social Science Observing Workshop Report
Introduction
There are numerous observing systems at the global, national, and regional scales, most of which
are focused on observing physical phenomena of the natural environment. Recognition is
growing that an additional and complementary effort centered on social and cultural phenomena
is essential. Because social sciences specialize in characterizing human dimensions and lived
experience of phenomena, they can contribute generally to understanding of human-nature and
human-human interactions and impacts of those interactions. As a practical application, social
scientists’ knowledge of individual and group processes can help natural scientists’ to prioritize
their efforts and data collection and to engage information end-users.
This report documents the discussion and recommendations of a workshop held in April 2010 at
East Carolina University to discuss how such a social and cultural observing system might be
focused and structured. Similar to the proposed North Carolina Integrated Coastal Observing
System, “the primary purpose ... is to provide products and information useful to specific
management applications as efficiently and effectively as possible,” focusing, in this case, on
social science.
The group met for a day and discussed the following questions, both as a whole and in smaller
break out groups:
• What are the most important/relevant coastal issues and opportunities for the next X years?
• What are the needs of the State over both the short and long terms?
• What are the data needs, at what scales, and with what characteristics?
• What would the structure of such a system look like?
Although discussion focused on social science, it was not divorced from natural science. Instead
the efforts were seen as complementary and interactive. An underlying theme was: how can
social science affect current observing systems and make them better, especially given that social
science can create solutions for problems that are identified by natural science?
The following sections address the questions listed above in order to set the stage for continuing
discussion and for development of a proposal to implement such a system. Thus, this is the first
step in a larger and broader discussion both within North Carolina and with other entities
interested in social science observatories.
Issues, Opportunities, and Needs
Emerging from a synthesis of group discussions was a list of key issues that a social science
observing system would be well positioned to support: (1) climate change, (2) energy
development, and (3) population growth and land use change. This list of issues includes those
identified as most salient to coastal North Carolina now and into the future. An array of
subtopics falls within the three identified issues that are not mutually exclusive, but rather
illustrate:
a. the difficulty inherent in defining discrete topics on which we might concentrate our
efforts and
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b. the ways in which observations and findings associated with one issue can benefit our
understanding of another.
Under each of the three broad issues are lists of associated subtopics and concerns that, in
various combinations, help to define the issues and provide guidance for the types of data that
may be appropriate. Underlying each of the issues below is the theme of sustainability and the
economic, social, cultural, and political factors that come to define sustainability at a location.
Among the sectors in which this is particularly critical in coastal North Carolina are tourism,
agriculture, forestry, and military, which define much of the area’s economic foundation.
Climate change
In addition to the measurable changes associated with sea level rise, erosion, and weather
hazards, so too are there impacts associated with land use, resource availability, and human
perceptions of causes, effects, and vulnerability. Climate change is anticipated to have significant
impacts that have social components and require tracking over time and from place to place,
including:
• Accelerated erosion
• Marsh loss
• Salt water intrusion
• Flooding
• Habitat loss
• Changes in fisheries
• Changing agricultural base and productivity
• Changing valuation of land and changing tax bases
• Changes in land use planning, zoning, and permitting
• Loss of archeological sites
These impacts of climate change will directly and indirectly affect human uses of coastal areas,
some of which are in competition with one another. Thus, determining stakeholder needs and
variable vulnerabilities to the impacts is critical to modeling human-environment relationships as
they affect and are affected by climate change. This leads to some opportunities for developing
better integrative models of coupled natural and human systems over different spatial and
temporal scales. In addition to facilitating more traditional impact assessments of changing
environmental characteristics on human well-being (including health, access to resources,
economics, and quality of life), the opportunity then exists for “flipping” the dependent variable
to analyze the give and take between social and natural systems, or evaluating the impact of
stressors on humans and of humans on stressors.
As mentioned above, there are numerous competing interests in coastal areas, all of which will
be affected in one way or another by climate change – but they will not be affected equally nor
will all be affected negatively or at the same time in the same place. For instance, climate change
leads to the loss of archaeological sites due to increased erosion and sea level rise; these sites are
non-renewable resources. The institutional and organizational frameworks that exist are not
currently positioned to address issues associated with climate change and sea level rise. Indeed,
regulatory structures are not coordinated, are often conflicting, and can be confusing. Thus, a
need exists in the state to assess the policy environment within and across levels of governance
and within and across sectors in the coastal region.
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Energy Development
An emerging issue along the US coast is that of energy development, including wind, wave, and
tidal energy and fossil fuels, particularly offshore drilling. Both are anticipated to have impacts
on:
• Tourism, including heritage tourism
• Land use
• Property values
• Destination images
• Aesthetics
• Marine ecosystems
• Economic growth and development
In addition, there are additional issues, depending on the type of energy. As the BP disaster in the
Gulf of Mexico has shown, offshore oil drilling can create serious environmental, economic, and
social problems. While it might be expected that new offshore drilling projects will be on hold
for some time, over the long term, it is likely that such oil production will resume. North
Carolina can expect to see its share of proposed developments. It would make sense to consider
such a possibility as an observing system is developed. Offshore (and even onshore) wind
energy sets the stage for conflicts, again among competing uses, based on differing goals,
attitudes, and perceptions.
The set of issues presented above lends itself to development of comparative models that project
a range of land use and land value scenarios under varying future conditions, at different spatial
and temporal scales. Being able to take advantage of this opportunity requires the collection of
relevant data in an organized and systematic manner at different locations, encompassing varying
time frames. This offers important opportunities to incorporate the considerations detailed in this
section into larger models, including those addressing coupled natural and human systems. At
the same time, it lends itself to incorporating such social considerations as quality of life, sense
of place, and social justice. With an observing system, these can be tracked over time and
incorporated into subsequent analyses.
As with climate change, there is a need for the state to think comprehensively from a policy
perspective and from a social perspective. The competing interests around energy development
may well be polarized. Again, as above, stakeholder needs and priorities are critical
considerations, as they exist and as they change (or do not) over time. How do current
governance and regulatory systems address needs, conflicts, and decision-making structures?
What changes are needed? And, once changes are in effect, how are they addressing the needs?
Population Growth and Land Use Change
Although distributed unequally geographically, coastal North Carolina populations have been
generally increasing over time, relating to amenity, economic, and environmental pull factors.
This increase has impacts on both the socio-economic environment and on the physical
environment (which feeds back to affect the socio-economic environment). With population
growth comes a transition in land use, from undeveloped (including agricultural) to built, as well
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as changes in land value. For some, this is a positive change, as, for instance, the economic base
of the region increases. For others it is not, as gentrification makes it difficult for those with roots
in the region to afford the location. In addition, some of what is now undeveloped land has not
always been so, and the archaeological resources associated with that land are also at risk. With
new development may come a sense of newness and vibrancy, or a loss of tradition and sense of
place, or some combination. At the same time, from a natural environmental perspective,
population growth and land use change lead to
• Increased impervious surfaces
• Habitat loss
• Changes in water quality
• Aquifer depletion
• Increased waste generation
• Loss of archaeological sites and heritage tourism opportunities
As seen in the two previous sections, modeling is strengthened if these social, economic, and
environmental factors are analyzed together at different spatial and temporal scales. At the same
time, some of these impacts do not lend themselves to numerical modeling, such as measuring
changes in sense of place, quality of life, and loss of local traditions and archaeology. Yet, these
are equally important. There exist numerous opportunities to build on the past, using the
archaeological and historical record, to understand these characteristics as they once were, and
then to develop measures and indicators to document changes into the future – and to use the
past to help us understand how changes will play out.
Setting a baseline is important to understanding the positive and negative impacts of population
growth and land use change. Thus, we need to develop a consensus on where to start measuring
social, demographic, and economic change. At the same time, it is important to determine how
different governmental and other organizational/institutional entities view and address these
changes. Because impacts cross political boundaries and because one area’s use of resources
affects other areas, regional coordination with respect is critical. This involves integrating and
prioritizing issues and goals – which can only be accomplished once data and other indicators of
impacts are available.
Needs of North Carolina
Although needs were identified under individual categories that mostly relate to governmental
and institutional frameworks, there are additional needs that were identified that transcend the
categories, but that can influence the structure of such an observing system. Those identified
include:
• Communication strategies for different populations
• Prioritization of allocation of natural resources
• Incorporation of social justice issues
• Incorporation of historic and archaeological resources
• An increase in overall human health
• An increase in overall quality of life
• Greater access to existing and new data
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The items listed above, in combination with those detailed in the previous sub-sections, speak to
an overriding need for determining common, large scale regional questions to which the social
science observing system can be directed.
Summary
The three key issues identified for coastal North Carolina are not separate. Several common
themes can be seen: (1) climate change, (2) energy development, and (3) population growth and
land use change. First, vulnerability of the North Carolina coast is increasing because of the
impacts of climate change, opportunities and pressures for energy development, and increased
numbers of people and property in these hazardous areas. Second, the coast offers a diversity of
resources that are being utilized by different interests with sometimes competing goals. Third,
institutional arrangements are not structured to address many of these issues, particularly those
which appear to be uncertain. Finally, humans interact with the coastal natural and built
environments as both drivers of change and as responders to change. Therefore, a social science
observing system, in concert with a natural science observing system, offers a means of
collecting and utilizing data (broadly defined) to foster understanding of ways to reduce or
minimize the negative impacts of sea level rise, natural hazards, and other climate related
changes and to protect and enhance the quality and diversity of coastal resources.
Data Needs
Given the rather broad ranging issues that are seen to characterize the nature and future of North
Carolina’s coastal region, the data necessary to address these issues are equally wide ranging. In
addition to suggesting the types of data that should be collected through a social science
observatory, participants in the workshop also addressed the kinds of questions, trends, and
relationships that should and could be investigated using the data. This section first presents a
table that lists the data needs that were identified, and then turns to the second topic, that of how
the data might be used.
The data in Table 1 are not exhaustive but, rather, are illustrative of the kinds of data seen to be
important to this effort. They are presented as a starting point. As plans for the observatory move
forward, much more attention on data needs is required, including developing temporal and
spatial parameters as well as collection protocols. It should also be noted that the data listed in
the table are, necessarily, at different scales and thus involve different data collection strategies.
Table 1. Identified Data Needs
Demographic Data
Age
Race
Gender
Household income
Occupation
Education level
Tenure characteristics
House stock and type
Car registrations
Population change
Economic Data
Employment
Property values
Tax values
Housing starts
Service industry
Number of jobs
Pay rates
Number of entities
Fishing, forestry industries
Number of jobs/licenses
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Land Use Data
Land uses
Types
Acres
Number of parcels
Trends
Historic patterns
Value
Land cover
Types
Acres
Seasonal population
Resource consumption
Energy
Water
Waste produced
Impervious surfaces
Attitudes/Perceptions
Risk
Vulnerability
Quality of life
Development trends
Land use trends
Aesthetics
Health
Characteristics
Facilities
Government
Political
Voting records
Local participation
Communication technology
Accessibility
Demographics of media
users
Pay rates
Processing facilities
Harvesting statistics
Trends in technology
Industry, manufacturing
Number of jobs
Pay rates
Number of facilities
Production types/rates
Trends in technology
Military
Numbers in region
Trends
Directly related jobs
Indirectly related jobs
Tourism
Number of facilities by type
Capacities
Occupancy rates
Expenditures
Activity types
Day visitors
Length of stay trends
Trends
Historic patterns
Land use plans
Zoning
Plans and permits
Future patterns
Infrastructure
Roads
Water supply
Sewer lines
Septic tanks usage
Energy
Landfills
Locations
Size
Quantities received
Biodiversity
Measures
Trends
Ecosystem services
Archaeological sites
Known
Potential
Source location
Recreation industry
Number of facilities
Type of facilities
Source location of participants
Expenditures
Boat licenses
Fishing/hunting licenses
Experience sought
Agriculture
Farm numbers and size
Crops and animals
Value produced
Expenditures
Much of the data shown in Table 1 is available from such sources as the Census Bureau, the
Bureau of Labor and Statistics, and state, county, and municipal offices. A preliminary list of
existing datasets, as identified at the workshop includes:
• Historical records
• County tax data and zoning
• Building permits: local and CAMA permits
• Commercial fishing licenses
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• Recreational saltwater fishing licenses
• Hunting licenses
• Public health data: ER visits (morbidity and mortality)
• Occupancy rates
• Lifesaving data sets (USLA)
• Boater registration
• USCG accident reports
• County landfill (tonnage/month)
• Economic multipliers (secondary and induced economic impacts)
• Satellite imagery
• Tax photos
• LIDAR data
• Previous research studies, secondary data that can be mined
These data are in various formats, with varying temporal and spatial resolutions, requiring
considerable planning and collaboration among social scientists from different disciplines as well
as with natural scientists to determine appropriate types, scales, and configurations. Thus, having
data already available is a benefit but significant effort is required to insure its utility over time
and to a diversity of purposes.
While having data sets such as those shown in Table 1 will set the stage for a social science
observing system, it is more than raw data that will comprise the system. Instead, it is in analysis
of the interactions among variables that many important questions and relationships can be
addressed. Examples include:
• Impacts of population numbers and trends on water quality and infrastructure
o Septic vs. sewer
o Development density
o Impervious surfaces
o Fishery and terrestrial wildlife habitat
• Shoreline development trends and damage/inundation predictions
• Changing ecological footprints
• Changes in fishery stocks related to climate change and/or anthropogenic impacts
• Water quality and public health
• Water quality and critical infrastructure
• Land use trends and development trends
o Impacts on historical/archaeological sites
 damage to heritage tourism – more of a financial impact
 damage to heritage – less of a financial impact?
o Impacts water quality, infrastructure and environmental carrying capacity
• Resource use/unit (eg., per person, per acre)
o Power, water, trash
o Linking demand to resource availability (i.e., water demand and links to drought)
• Carbon footprint of tourists vs. residents
• Population density and water quality storm damage
• Beach width effects on rental patterns, property values
o social carrying capacity
• Coastal vulnerability trends and developing a coastal vulnerability index or measure
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These social science data and their application to different issues and questions have great utility
in and of themselves. They can assist in developing, justifying, and applying policy decisions.
They can provide a foundation for changes in local and regional plans and priorities. They can
help understand the basis of past trends and project future scenarios, in the face of the
uncertainties that define the current and future coastal environment. At the same time, these data
and use of them to address various questions can help determine what natural science approach
to use, while at the same time fostering understanding about the impacts and importance of
natural science observing and research. Thus, while a social science observing system is
important because of the issues it can address, it also ties the social sciences into other observing
systems. This has additional benefits, as social scientists are better than natural scientists at
stakeholder engagement and highlighting needs, and the social sciences can add relevancy to the
products and services developed.
System Structure
Deciding what a social science observing system should/could address is one task. A much more
difficult task is developing the structure of the system – an undertaking that requires more time
than we had available. On one hand, there are a number of observing systems already in
existence at different spatial scales, from the global (for example, the Global Climate Observing
System (GCOS), and the Global Ocean Observing System (GOOS)), to the national (for
example, the Integrated Ocean Observing System IOOS) and the regional (such as that overseen
by the Southeast Coastal Ocean Observing Regional Association (SECOORA)). There is a great
deal to learn from the experiences (both good and bad) of these systems including decisions on:
• geographic limits
• specific variables
• direct and indirect indicators and effects, and
• data storage, management, and access.
There are other analogous structures from which this system can learn, including the South
Atlantic Regional Research Plan, the South Atlantic Alliance and the Albemarle-Pamlico
National Estuary Program (APNEP) Indicators. At the same time, social science data collection
is a very different process than much of the instrument based data collection that occurs with
natural science observing. On one hand, it would be useful if the system could be structured such
that, as one participant put it, “my survey is like a buoy,” continuously collecting and
transmitting primary data in a manner similar to oceanographic buoy data. Unfortunately, that is
very difficult given the range of data needs, necessary variations in collection strategies and
approaches, and differences in data types, formats, and measurability, thus leading to
compatibility problems. This makes social science observing a very expensive undertaking, in
large part because it is so personnel intensive. This necessitates the close evaluation of available
secondary data as a surrogate in many cases.
Given these issues, the group developed a set of characteristics or standards that should frame
development of the system. These include:
• Interoperability
• An open source format
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•
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A centralized access point with distributed responsibility for data collection and data
management
Internet based tools to insure functionality
Standardization of data collection by type/topic/category
Multiple scales of data collection and management, including temporal, spatial, social, and
governance scales
Dedicated personnel
A great deal remains to be determined regarding the structure of the system, and this involves,
among other activities, research into existing and proposed systems that aim to achieve similar
goals. It is hoped that this report sets the stage for continued work to develop this important
observing system.
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