Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013 IEA PUBLICERAR WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2013 Technology and high prices are opening up new oil resources, but this does not mean the world is on the verge of an era of oil abundance, according to the International Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2013 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO-2013). Although rising oil output from North America and Brazil reduces the role of OPEC countries in quenching the world’s thirst for oil over the next decade, the Middle East – the only large source of low-cost oil – takes back its role as a key source of oil supply growth from the mid-2020s. The annual report presents a central scenario in which global energy demand rises by one-third in the period to 2035. The shift in global energy demand to Asia gathers speed, but China moves towards a back seat in the 2020s as India and countries in Southeast Asia take the lead in driving consumption higher. The Middle East also moves to centre stage as an energy consumer, becoming the world’s second-largest gas consumer by 2020 and third-largest oil consumer by 2030, redefining its role in global energy markets. (IEA 2013-11-12) Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013 KOMMENTAR TILL WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK Det intressanta är att oljeindustrins upstreamsinvesteringar har kraftigt ökat samtidigt som lönsamhetsmarginalen har minskat trots höga oljepriser. Enligt WEO 2013 var oljeleveranserna under år 2012 87,1 miljoner fat per dag jämfört med 75,2 miljoner fat per dag under år 2000. Men endast en tredjedel av denna ökning var i form av konventionell olja, två tredjedelar var i form av utvinning av okonventionella fyndigheter. De senare har helt andra utvinningskostnader än de konventionella fyndigheterna. WEO anger kostnadsintervallet för utvinning till 10-70 $ per fat för konventionell olja, 50-90 $ för oljesand, 50-100 $ för light-tight olja och 70-90 $ för ultra-djupa fyndigheter. Oljeindustrin har kunnat finansiera de kraftigt ökade utvinningskostnaderna genom höga oljepriser. Utvinningsinvesteringarna har ökat med 180 procent sedan 2000 medan oljeleveranserna sedan samma år endast har ökat med 14 procent. Mot denna bakgrund är det svårt att se att den rikliga tillgången på olja kan tvinga ner priserna eller finansiera kommande allt dyrare utvinningsinvesteringar och därmed säkra en ökande tillgång på olja. (FiT 2013-11-26) KÄRNENERGIAVTALET MED IRAN GER BEGRÄNSAD OLJEPRISNEDGÅNG Dagen efter kärnenergiavtalet med Iran gick oljepriset på de internationella marknaderna ner något, men inte så mycket som många handlare hade förväntat. Många hade förväntat att Brent-oljan skulle röra sig nedåt 100 $ per fat, men den gick bara ned 3 $ innan priset återigen var över 110 $ per fat. Många analytiker menade att prisdämpning redan hade skett genom förväntningar samtidigt som många osäkerheter bestod över vad som händer efter det nuvarande avtalet går ut efter sex månader, så prispåverkan förväntas bli begränsad. (FiT 2013-11-26) IEA ANGER RIKTNING FÖR KOLDIOXIDFRI ELPRODUKTION Removing carbon dioxide from power generation is critical to limit global temperature rise to 2°C. That decarbonisation involves three major challenges: replacing ageing conventional power plants, shifting to renewable energy, and reinforcing and expanding the transmission network to adapt to new, decentralised and variable generation. But existing market designs and regulatory frameworks can make it hard to guarantee a reliable and efficient electricity supply during the massive change. The IEA addressed those challenges in its Electricity Security Action Plan (ESAP), which member-country ministers endorsed at their 2011 Ministerial meeting. At the 2013 Ministerial, the IEA released Secure and Efficient Electricity Supply, which draws on the action plan to analyse electricity security challenges and point to the best policies for a successful transition. (IEA 2013-11-26) 2 Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013 EU VÄLKOMNAR FRAMSTEGEN VID KLIMATKONFERENSEN I WARSZAWA The European Union welcomes the outcome of the United Nations climate conference in Warsaw as a step forward in the international fight against climate change. The conference agreed a timeplan for countries to table their contributions to reducing or limiting greenhouse gas emissions under a new global climate agreement to be adopted in 2015. It also agreed ways to accelerate efforts to deepen emission cuts over the rest of this decade, and to set up a mechanism to address losses and damage caused by climate change in vulnerable developing countries. In addition, the conference agreed decisions which enhance the implementation of a range of measures already agreed at international level, including finance to support developing countries, combatting tropical deforestation, and transparency of reporting on emissions. Connie Hedegaard, EU Commissioner for Climate Action, said: “The Warsaw climate conference showed how challenging the way to an ambitious result in Paris will be. But the last hours also showed that we are capable of moving forward. The EU wanted the stepwise approach that is now agreed as the way forward: all countries must contribute to the future reduction efforts, and already now all countries must go home and do their homework in order to table their contributions well in advance of the Paris conference, and by the first quarter of 2015 by those ready to do so. For sure there will be faster and less bumpy ways to Paris but now the journey has started. We must make it there. And congratulations to the most vulnerable countries, as Warsaw agreed to establish a mechanism to promote approaches to address loss and damage caused by climate change in vulnerable developing countries’’ (EU 2013-11-23) EU-KOMMISSIONEN FÖRESLÅR FORMELL RATIFICERING AV KYOTOPTOKOLLETS ANDRA FAS The European Commission has proposed the legislation necessary for the European Union to formally ratify the second commitment period (2013-2020) of the Kyoto Protocol on climate change. The EU, the Member States and Iceland have committed to jointly achieve a 20% reduction in their combined greenhouse gas emissions over the second period compared to the level in 1990 or their other chosen base years. This reduction commitment is consistent with the 2009 'climate and energy package' of legislation and mirrors the package's reduction measures at EU and Member State level. The Commission has today made two legislative proposals: for a Council Decision on ratification of the Doha amendment to the Kyoto Protocol establishing the second commitment period, and for a European Parliament and Council Regulation on technical issues related to implementation of the second period. (EU 2013-11-06) 3 Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013 KOMMUNIKÈ FRÅN INTERNATIONAL COAL AND CLIMATE SUMMIT I WARSZAWA The Warsaw Communiqué includes a three-step call to action: 1. We call for the immediate use of high-efficiency low-emissions coal combustion technologies, wherever it is economic and technically feasible at existing and new power plants, as an immediate step in lowering greenhouse gas emissions from coalfired power plants around the world and a necessary milestone towards the deployment of carbon capture utilisation and storage technologies once demonstrated and commercialised. 2. We call on governments to set an ambitious pathway, before COP20, to move the global average efficiency of coal-fired power generation plants to current state of the art levels and to support R&D efforts to further improve the efficiency of coal combustion technologies. 3. We call on development banks to support developing countries in accessing clean coal technologies, including high-efficiency low-emissions coal combustion technologies. (World Coal Association 2013-11-19) EURACOAL PUBLICERAR ”COAL INDUSTRY ACROSS EUROPE 2013” As the world’s third largest coal-using region, after China and North America, the EU mines around 130 million tonnes of hard coal each year and in 2012 increased its coal imports by 7% to 210 million tonnes, making it the world’s second largest coal importer behind China. Annual lignite output of 430 million tonnes means that the EU is the world’s largest lignite producer. Over one quarter of EU electricity comes from coal and lignite and they are important fuels for industry – notably for steel and cement. Given that coal and lignite account for 88% of EU fossil energy reserves, they will continue to provide us will affordable and competitive energy for many decades. (Euracoal 2013-11-14) FNs KLIMATCHEF SÄGER ATT KOL KAN VARA EN DEL AV KLIMATLÖSNINGEN Christiana Figueres told delegates at the International Coal and Climate summit in Warsaw that they had "the opportunity to be part of the worldwide climate solution" by switching off old coal power plants, capturing and storing carbon from new plants and leaving most of the world's coal reserves in the ground. She also said coal power could help poorer countries' economic development and poverty reduction, but that the industry "must change". "We must urgently take the steps that put us on an ambitious path to global peaking [of emissions] by the end of this decade, and zero-net emissions by the second half of the century. Steps that look past next quarter’s bottom line and see next generation’s bottom line, and steps to figure health, security and sustainability into the bottom line." (Guardian 2013-11-18) 4 Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013 TURKIET PLANERAR NYA KOLKRAFTVERK Ignoring its significant solar and wind power potential, Turkey is planning a massive 'dash for coal' with over 37,000 MW of new coal fired power stations. This is the key finding from a Bankwatch and Greenpeace Mediterranean fact finding mission to the Turkish Black Sea Coast, which identified between 50 and 86 new coal plants are planned to be built in Turkey over the next few years. This would rank Turkey first among OECD countries investing in new installed coal capacity, and fourth globally, behind only China, India and Russia. (Ecologist 2013-11-05) FJÄRDE EUROPEISKA KOLDAGARNA I BRYSSEL Taking place at the same time as COP-19 – the important UNFCCC climate conference in Warsaw – the aim of the coal days was to bring to the attention of policy makers how clean coal technologies offer an immediate step towards a low-emissions economy. In a world where 1.3 billion people have no access to electricity and where China’s growth in coal consumption last year exactly matched the total annual output from the European coal industry – 130 million tonnes – there can be no getting away from the need for a global solution to the climate challenge. The European Union acting alone can make little difference to the global picture. Being abundant and affordable, coal will be used for decades to come to meet modern society’s legitimate demand for energy. Adopting cleaner, more efficient and more flexible coal technologies is not an option … it is an imperative. (Euracoal 2013-11-14) 5 Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013 AMERIKANSKA DOE ANSLÅR 84 MILJ $ TILL CCS-PROJEKT The U.S. Department of Energy has awarded $84 million to 18 projects across the U.S. that help limit carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants. The projects focus on carbon-capture technologies. Projects being funded include $12.8 million for in Menlo Park, CA, to test carbon-capture technology for use in commercial applications such as enhanced oil recovery or chemical operations. There is also $15 million to ION Engineeringin Boulder, CO, to test an advanced carbon-capture solvent under realistic conditions. The new projects receiving funds include a $5 billion coalfired power plant that Mississippi Power Co. is build in Kemper County, MS, to spotlight its efforts to capture CO2 from burning lignite. (Utility News 2013-11.10) KINAS FÖRSTA KOLFÖRGASNINGSANLÄGGNING SNART I DRIFT China's first coal-to-gas (CTG) project will soon start pumping gas to capital city Beijing to help meet winter heating demand, coming online after a one-year delay due to an unfinished pipeline, said an industry official involved on the project. China is spending $14 billion on projects to turn coal in remote regions into natural gas, a costly bet that could help meet the country's surging demand for the fuel. State-owned utility Datang Power, parent of Datang International Power Generation Co Ltd , expects to switch on the taps in the coming weeks at its pilot CTG plant in north China's Inner Mongolia to deliver an initial 4 million cubic metres of gas each day to Beijing. (Reuters 2013-11-07) MINAMATA KONVENTIONEN FÖR KVICKSILVER ANTAGEN After five rounds of negotiations between 2009 and 2013, the Minamata Convention on Mercury was adopted on October 10 in Kumamoto, Japan. The Convention includes specific decisions in relation to existing and new coal-fired power plants and industrial boilers. During the Diplomatic Conference in Kumamoto decisions were also taken to officially start the work on the guidance document on Best Available Techniques (BAT) for controlling mercury emissions, including from coal-fired power plants and coal-fired industrial boilers. (WCA 2013-11-06) THYSSENKRUPP SÄLJA STÅLVERK I ALABAMA, USA Efter lång tidsutdräkt ser det nu ut som ThyssenKrupp skall sälja sitt förlusttyngda stålverk i Alabama, USA, till ett konsortium lett av ArcelorMittal och Nippon Steel. Under ett decennium har ThyssenKrupp investerat cirka 12 miljarder $ i stålverken i Alabama och Brasilien. Försäljningspriset för Alabama-anläggningarna väntas uppgå 6 Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013 till 2 miljarder $. ThyssenKrupp väntas behålla anläggningarna i Brasilien, även om de har varit till salu tidigare, men inte hittat någon köpare. (FiT 2013-11-21) OLJEHANDLARE EXPORTERA KANADENSISK RÅOLJA VIA AMERIKANSKA GOLFKUSTEN Den ökande kanadensiska råoljeproduktionen har lett till svårigheter att få ut oljan på världsmarknaden, och stora prisskillnader har uppstått mellan kanadensisk råolja i Kanada och råolja från Nordsjön. Bristande pipeline-kapacitet innebär att olja från Alberta i Kanada inte kan transporteras till den kanadensiska kusten. Detta har medfört att ökande oljevolymer från Kanada har exporterats till USA med sjunkande prisnivåer som följd. Tung kanadensisk råolja säljs för 63 $ per fat jämfört med 86 $ per fat för motsvarande mexikanska olja och 94,5 $ för amerikansk WTI-olja. Planerna på den stora XL-pipelinen för råoljeexport från Kanada till USA är politiskt känsliga i USA, så även planerna på exportterminaler i USA. (FiT 2013-11-22) CONSOL ENERGY SÄLJER KOLGRUVOR I USA Consol Energi säljer en tredjedel av sin kolverksamhet på grund av bristande lönsamhet i och med övergången i USA från kol till gas. Försäljningen innefattar fem kolgruvor i West Virginia som övertas av Murray Energy. Överlåtelsevärdet beräknas till 3,5 miljarder $. Consols chef menade att det var små tillväxtmöjligheter på den amerikanska energikolmarknaden jämfört med den för gas och den för internationellt kol. (FiT 2013-10-29) NYINVESTERINGAR I FARTYG Shipping har haft sina svåraste ekonomiska tider på 25 år. Fraktraterna för såväl bulk som container och tanker har varit mycket låga. De låga priserna på begagnat tonnage och nybyggt har nu attraherat investerare, eftersom man tror att fraktraterna skall börja röra sig uppåt. De traditionella fartygsägarna har svårt att finansiera nybyggen eftersom bankerna numera kräver egenfinansiering på 50 % i stället för såsom tidigare 30 %. Detta har lockat fram annat kapital till sektorn som olika former av private equity. (FiT 2013-10-28) MINSKAD ENERGIANVÄNDNING I INDUSTRIN 2012 Industrins energianvändning fortsatte att minska under 2012. Stål- och metallverk, en av de mest energiintensiva branscherna, minskade sin användning med hela 9 procent. Industrins energianvändning var totalt 167 655 GWh under 2012, vilket är en minskning med 1 procent jämfört med 2011. Minskningen av energianvändningen skedde främst inom industrierna massa och papper, stål- och metallverk samt kemi. 7 Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013 Men inom vissa sektorer gick utvecklingen i motsatt riktning. Inom exempelvis industrin för tillverkning av stenkolsprodukter och raffinerade petroleumprodukter samt inom trävaruindustrin ökade i stället energianvändning med 9 respektive 2 procent. Biobränslen och el dominerade med 33 procent respektive 32 procent inom industrins totala energianvändning under 2012. • Stenkol och koks utgör 10 procent av den totala energianvändningen inom industrin, och har minskat i antal GWh med 11 procent sedan 2011. • Eldningsoljor (lättolja samt tjockolja exkl. diesel) utgör 4 procent av den totala energianvändningen. Eldningsoljor har minskat i antal GWh med 10 procent sedan 2011. • Naturgas utgör 3 procent av den totala energianvändningen. Naturgas har ökat i GWh med 6 procent sedan 2011. (Energimyndigheten 2013-11-22) [email protected] www.kolinstitutet.se Svenska Kolinstitutet Kungsbroplan 2 Box 1026 101 38 Stockholm Tel 08-525 099 39 8