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Kol Nytt
NOVEMBER 2013
IEA PUBLICERAR WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK 2013
Technology and high prices are opening up new oil resources, but this does not mean
the world is on the verge of an era of oil abundance, according to the International
Energy Agency’s (IEA) 2013 edition of the World Energy Outlook (WEO-2013).
Although rising oil output from North America and Brazil reduces the role of OPEC
countries in quenching the world’s thirst for oil over the next decade, the Middle East –
the only large source of low-cost oil – takes back its role as a key source of oil supply
growth from the mid-2020s.
The annual report presents a central scenario in which global energy demand rises by
one-third in the period to 2035. The shift in global energy demand to Asia gathers
speed, but China moves towards a back seat in the 2020s as India and countries in
Southeast Asia take the lead in driving consumption higher. The Middle East also
moves to centre stage as an energy consumer, becoming the world’s second-largest gas
consumer by 2020 and third-largest oil consumer by 2030, redefining its role in global
energy markets. (IEA 2013-11-12)
Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013
KOMMENTAR TILL WORLD ENERGY OUTLOOK
Det intressanta är att oljeindustrins upstreamsinvesteringar har kraftigt ökat samtidigt
som lönsamhetsmarginalen har minskat trots höga oljepriser. Enligt WEO 2013 var
oljeleveranserna under år 2012 87,1 miljoner fat per dag jämfört med 75,2 miljoner fat
per dag under år 2000. Men endast en tredjedel av denna ökning var i form av
konventionell olja, två tredjedelar var i form av utvinning av okonventionella
fyndigheter. De senare har helt andra utvinningskostnader än de konventionella
fyndigheterna. WEO anger kostnadsintervallet för utvinning till 10-70 $ per fat för
konventionell olja, 50-90 $ för oljesand, 50-100 $ för light-tight olja och 70-90 $ för
ultra-djupa fyndigheter. Oljeindustrin har kunnat finansiera de kraftigt ökade
utvinningskostnaderna genom höga oljepriser. Utvinningsinvesteringarna har ökat med
180 procent sedan 2000 medan oljeleveranserna sedan samma år endast har ökat med 14
procent.
Mot denna bakgrund är det svårt att se att den rikliga tillgången på olja kan tvinga ner
priserna eller finansiera kommande allt dyrare utvinningsinvesteringar och därmed
säkra en ökande tillgång på olja.
(FiT 2013-11-26)
KÄRNENERGIAVTALET MED IRAN GER BEGRÄNSAD
OLJEPRISNEDGÅNG
Dagen efter kärnenergiavtalet med Iran gick oljepriset på de internationella
marknaderna ner något, men inte så mycket som många handlare hade förväntat. Många
hade förväntat att Brent-oljan skulle röra sig nedåt 100 $ per fat, men den gick bara ned
3 $ innan priset återigen var över 110 $ per fat.
Många analytiker menade att prisdämpning redan hade skett genom förväntningar
samtidigt som många osäkerheter bestod över vad som händer efter det nuvarande
avtalet går ut efter sex månader, så prispåverkan förväntas bli begränsad.
(FiT 2013-11-26)
IEA ANGER RIKTNING FÖR KOLDIOXIDFRI ELPRODUKTION
Removing carbon dioxide from power generation is critical to limit global temperature
rise to 2°C. That decarbonisation involves three major challenges: replacing ageing
conventional power plants, shifting to renewable energy, and reinforcing and expanding
the transmission network to adapt to new, decentralised and variable generation. But
existing market designs and regulatory frameworks can make it hard to guarantee a
reliable and efficient electricity supply during the massive change.
The IEA addressed those challenges in its Electricity Security Action Plan (ESAP),
which member-country ministers endorsed at their 2011 Ministerial meeting. At the
2013 Ministerial, the IEA released Secure and Efficient Electricity Supply, which draws
on the action plan to analyse electricity security challenges and point to the best policies
for a successful transition.
(IEA 2013-11-26)
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Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013
EU VÄLKOMNAR FRAMSTEGEN VID KLIMATKONFERENSEN I
WARSZAWA
The European Union welcomes the outcome of the United Nations climate conference
in Warsaw as a step forward in the international fight against climate change. The
conference agreed a timeplan for countries to table their contributions to reducing or
limiting greenhouse gas emissions under a new global climate agreement to be adopted
in 2015. It also agreed ways to accelerate efforts to deepen emission cuts over the rest of
this decade, and to set up a mechanism to address losses and damage caused by climate
change in vulnerable developing countries.
In addition, the conference agreed decisions which enhance the implementation of a
range of measures already agreed at international level, including finance to support
developing countries, combatting tropical deforestation, and transparency of reporting
on emissions.
Connie Hedegaard, EU Commissioner for Climate Action, said: “The Warsaw climate
conference showed how challenging the way to an ambitious result in Paris will be. But
the last hours also showed that we are capable of moving forward. The EU wanted the
stepwise approach that is now agreed as the way forward: all countries must contribute
to the future reduction efforts, and already now all countries must go home and do their
homework in order to table their contributions well in advance of the Paris conference,
and by the first quarter of 2015 by those ready to do so. For sure there will be faster and
less bumpy ways to Paris but now the journey has started. We must make it there. And
congratulations to the most vulnerable countries, as Warsaw agreed to establish a
mechanism to promote approaches to address loss and damage caused by climate
change in vulnerable developing countries’’
(EU 2013-11-23)
EU-KOMMISSIONEN FÖRESLÅR FORMELL RATIFICERING AV KYOTOPTOKOLLETS ANDRA FAS
The European Commission has proposed the legislation necessary for the European
Union to formally ratify the second commitment period (2013-2020) of the Kyoto
Protocol on climate change. The EU, the Member States and Iceland have committed to
jointly achieve a 20% reduction in their combined greenhouse gas emissions over the
second period compared to the level in 1990 or their other chosen base years. This
reduction commitment is consistent with the 2009 'climate and energy package' of
legislation and mirrors the package's reduction measures at EU and Member State level.
The Commission has today made two legislative proposals: for a Council Decision on
ratification of the Doha amendment to the Kyoto Protocol establishing the second
commitment period, and for a European Parliament and Council Regulation on technical
issues related to implementation of the second period.
(EU 2013-11-06)
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Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013
KOMMUNIKÈ FRÅN INTERNATIONAL COAL AND CLIMATE SUMMIT I
WARSZAWA
The Warsaw Communiqué includes a three-step call to action:
1. We call for the immediate use of high-efficiency low-emissions coal combustion
technologies, wherever it is economic and technically feasible at existing and new
power plants, as an immediate step in lowering greenhouse gas emissions from coalfired power plants around the world and a necessary milestone towards the
deployment of carbon capture utilisation and storage technologies once demonstrated
and commercialised.
2. We call on governments to set an ambitious pathway, before COP20, to move the
global average efficiency of coal-fired power generation plants to current state of the
art levels and to support R&D efforts to further improve the efficiency of coal
combustion technologies.
3. We call on development banks to support developing countries in accessing clean
coal technologies, including high-efficiency low-emissions coal combustion
technologies.
(World Coal Association 2013-11-19)
EURACOAL PUBLICERAR ”COAL INDUSTRY ACROSS EUROPE 2013”
As the world’s third largest coal-using region, after China and North America, the EU
mines around 130 million tonnes of hard coal each year and in 2012 increased its coal
imports by 7% to 210 million tonnes, making it the world’s second largest coal importer
behind China. Annual lignite output of 430 million tonnes means that the EU is the world’s
largest lignite producer. Over one quarter of EU electricity comes from coal and lignite and
they are important fuels for industry – notably for steel and cement. Given that coal and
lignite account for 88% of EU fossil energy reserves, they will continue to provide us will
affordable and competitive energy for many decades.
(Euracoal 2013-11-14)
FNs KLIMATCHEF SÄGER ATT KOL KAN VARA EN DEL AV
KLIMATLÖSNINGEN
Christiana Figueres told delegates at the International Coal and Climate summit in
Warsaw that they had "the opportunity to be part of the worldwide climate solution" by
switching off old coal power plants, capturing and storing carbon from new plants and
leaving most of the world's coal reserves in the ground. She also said coal power could
help poorer countries' economic development and poverty reduction, but that the
industry "must change".
"We must urgently take the steps that put us on an ambitious path to global peaking [of
emissions] by the end of this decade, and zero-net emissions by the second half of the
century. Steps that look past next quarter’s bottom line and see next generation’s bottom
line, and steps to figure health, security and sustainability into the bottom line."
(Guardian 2013-11-18)
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Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013
TURKIET PLANERAR NYA KOLKRAFTVERK
Ignoring its significant solar and wind power potential, Turkey is planning a massive
'dash for coal' with over 37,000 MW of new coal fired power stations.
This is the key finding from a Bankwatch and Greenpeace Mediterranean fact finding
mission to the Turkish Black Sea Coast, which identified between 50 and 86 new coal
plants are planned to be built in Turkey over the next few years.
This would rank Turkey first among OECD countries investing in new installed coal
capacity, and fourth globally, behind only China, India and Russia.
(Ecologist 2013-11-05)
FJÄRDE EUROPEISKA KOLDAGARNA I BRYSSEL
Taking place at the same time as COP-19 – the important UNFCCC climate conference
in Warsaw – the aim of the coal days was to bring to the attention of policy makers how
clean coal technologies offer an immediate step towards a low-emissions economy. In a
world where 1.3 billion people have no access to electricity and where China’s growth
in coal consumption last year exactly matched the total annual output from the
European coal industry – 130 million tonnes – there can be no getting away from the
need for a global solution to the climate challenge. The European Union acting alone
can make little difference to the global picture. Being abundant and affordable, coal will
be used for decades to come to meet modern society’s legitimate demand for energy.
Adopting cleaner, more efficient and more flexible coal technologies is not an option …
it is an imperative.
(Euracoal 2013-11-14)
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Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013
AMERIKANSKA DOE ANSLÅR 84 MILJ $ TILL CCS-PROJEKT
The U.S. Department of Energy has awarded $84 million to 18 projects across the U.S.
that help limit carbon dioxide emissions from coal-fired power plants. The projects
focus on carbon-capture technologies. Projects being funded include $12.8 million for
in Menlo Park, CA, to test carbon-capture technology for use in commercial
applications such as enhanced oil recovery or chemical operations. There is also $15
million to ION Engineeringin Boulder, CO, to test an advanced carbon-capture solvent
under realistic conditions. The new projects receiving funds include a $5 billion coalfired power plant that Mississippi Power Co. is build in Kemper County, MS, to
spotlight its efforts to capture CO2 from burning lignite.
(Utility News 2013-11.10)
KINAS FÖRSTA KOLFÖRGASNINGSANLÄGGNING SNART I DRIFT
China's first coal-to-gas (CTG) project will soon start pumping gas to capital city
Beijing to help meet winter heating demand, coming online after a one-year delay due
to an unfinished pipeline, said an industry official involved on the project.
China is spending $14 billion on projects to turn coal in remote regions into natural gas,
a costly bet that could help meet the country's surging demand for the fuel.
State-owned utility Datang Power, parent of Datang International Power Generation Co
Ltd , expects to switch on the taps in the coming weeks at its pilot CTG plant in north
China's Inner Mongolia to deliver an initial 4 million cubic metres of gas each day to
Beijing.
(Reuters 2013-11-07)
MINAMATA KONVENTIONEN FÖR KVICKSILVER ANTAGEN
After five rounds of negotiations between 2009 and 2013, the Minamata Convention on
Mercury was adopted on October 10 in Kumamoto, Japan. The Convention includes
specific decisions in relation to existing and new coal-fired power plants and industrial
boilers.
During the Diplomatic Conference in Kumamoto decisions were also taken to officially
start the work on the guidance document on Best Available Techniques (BAT) for
controlling mercury emissions, including from coal-fired power plants and coal-fired
industrial boilers.
(WCA 2013-11-06)
THYSSENKRUPP SÄLJA STÅLVERK I ALABAMA, USA
Efter lång tidsutdräkt ser det nu ut som ThyssenKrupp skall sälja sitt förlusttyngda
stålverk i Alabama, USA, till ett konsortium lett av ArcelorMittal och Nippon Steel.
Under ett decennium har ThyssenKrupp investerat cirka 12 miljarder $ i stålverken i
Alabama och Brasilien. Försäljningspriset för Alabama-anläggningarna väntas uppgå
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Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013
till 2 miljarder $. ThyssenKrupp väntas behålla anläggningarna i Brasilien, även om de
har varit till salu tidigare, men inte hittat någon köpare.
(FiT 2013-11-21)
OLJEHANDLARE EXPORTERA KANADENSISK RÅOLJA VIA
AMERIKANSKA GOLFKUSTEN
Den ökande kanadensiska råoljeproduktionen har lett till svårigheter att få ut oljan på
världsmarknaden, och stora prisskillnader har uppstått mellan kanadensisk råolja i
Kanada och råolja från Nordsjön. Bristande pipeline-kapacitet innebär att olja från
Alberta i Kanada inte kan transporteras till den kanadensiska kusten. Detta har medfört
att ökande oljevolymer från Kanada har exporterats till USA med sjunkande prisnivåer
som följd. Tung kanadensisk råolja säljs för 63 $ per fat jämfört med 86 $ per fat för
motsvarande mexikanska olja och 94,5 $ för amerikansk WTI-olja. Planerna på den
stora XL-pipelinen för råoljeexport från Kanada till USA är politiskt känsliga i USA, så
även planerna på exportterminaler i USA.
(FiT 2013-11-22)
CONSOL ENERGY SÄLJER KOLGRUVOR I USA
Consol Energi säljer en tredjedel av sin kolverksamhet på grund av bristande lönsamhet
i och med övergången i USA från kol till gas. Försäljningen innefattar fem kolgruvor i
West Virginia som övertas av Murray Energy. Överlåtelsevärdet beräknas till 3,5
miljarder $. Consols chef menade att det var små tillväxtmöjligheter på den
amerikanska energikolmarknaden jämfört med den för gas och den för internationellt
kol.
(FiT 2013-10-29)
NYINVESTERINGAR I FARTYG
Shipping har haft sina svåraste ekonomiska tider på 25 år. Fraktraterna för såväl bulk
som container och tanker har varit mycket låga. De låga priserna på begagnat tonnage
och nybyggt har nu attraherat investerare, eftersom man tror att fraktraterna skall börja
röra sig uppåt. De traditionella fartygsägarna har svårt att finansiera nybyggen eftersom
bankerna numera kräver egenfinansiering på 50 % i stället för såsom tidigare 30 %.
Detta har lockat fram annat kapital till sektorn som olika former av private equity.
(FiT 2013-10-28)
MINSKAD ENERGIANVÄNDNING I INDUSTRIN 2012
Industrins energianvändning fortsatte att minska under 2012. Stål- och metallverk, en av
de mest energiintensiva branscherna, minskade sin användning med hela 9 procent.
Industrins energianvändning var totalt 167 655 GWh under 2012, vilket är en minskning
med 1 procent jämfört med 2011. Minskningen av energianvändningen skedde främst
inom industrierna massa och papper, stål- och metallverk samt kemi.
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Kol Nytt NOVEMBER 2013
Men inom vissa sektorer gick utvecklingen i motsatt riktning. Inom exempelvis
industrin för tillverkning av stenkolsprodukter och raffinerade petroleumprodukter samt
inom trävaruindustrin ökade i stället energianvändning med 9 respektive 2 procent.
Biobränslen och el dominerade med 33 procent respektive 32 procent inom industrins
totala energianvändning under 2012.
•
Stenkol och koks utgör 10 procent av den totala energianvändningen inom industrin,
och har minskat i antal GWh med 11 procent sedan 2011.
•
Eldningsoljor (lättolja samt tjockolja exkl. diesel) utgör 4 procent av den totala
energianvändningen. Eldningsoljor har minskat i antal GWh med 10 procent sedan
2011.
•
Naturgas utgör 3 procent av den totala energianvändningen. Naturgas har ökat i
GWh med 6 procent sedan 2011.
(Energimyndigheten 2013-11-22)
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