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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015
WEEKLY MARKET REPORT
DAINAM SECURITIES JOINT
STOCK COMPANY
From 25/05/2015 To 29/05/2015
RECOMMENDATIONS FOR THE WEEK FROM25/05TO 29/05/2015
Market will fluctuate and
correct during the week.
Recommend investors to buy
stocks
with
good
basic
information
and
already
decreased in price for a certain
long time.
MACD and Signal line were still well under Zero
level but MACD started cutting the Signal line
from beneath; that indicates a new rally.
Meanwhile, RSI and MFI at the end of the week
were 54.65 and 56.24 respectively and the two
lines created an upscale form, translating the
possibility of a mid-term uptrend.
However, in terms of individual stocks, there
emerged profit taking activities amongst
investors. We think that the trend will be
stronger in the week from 25-29/May and that
despite early indication of a trough, the market
still need some correction sessions to officially
confirm an obvious rally.
NEWS REVIEW FOR THE WEEK FROM18/05 TO 22/05/2015
INTERNATIONAL NEWS
TPA: Senate Passes Obama
Trade Agenda Authorization
Copywright @ DNSE
President Barack Obama’s trade agenda
legislation passed the Senate, setting up a fight in
the House over giving the White House more
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015
authority to negotiate new deals. The bill -- called
Trade Promotion Authority -- faced staunch
opposition from members of the president’s own
party, who worked unsuccessfully for weeks to
sink the legislation.
Supporters of TPP including Obama and most
Republicans argue that it will increase American
jobs by opening up more global markets and
advance several strategic defense goals by not
allowing China to gain outsize influence in
Southeast Asia.
IMF sees less pessimistic outlook
for Russian economy
Hedge funds lose faith in oil rally
as Opec seen boosting supply
The International Monetary Fund on Thursday
announced a less pessimistic forecast for Russia's
economy, predicting no more than 3.4 percent
contraction in 2015 and emergence from
recession in 2016. The IMF had last month
predicted that the economy would contract by 3.8
percent this year and by 1.1 percent in 2016."A
recession is expected in 2015 followed by a mild
recovery in 2016," the IMF said in a statement
released at a presentation in Moscow.
"GDP is expected to decline by 3.4 percent in
2015 driven by a contraction in domestic demand
and weighed down by falling real wages, higher
cost of capital and weakened confidence."
Speculators are losing faith in the oil rally,
judging that Opec will keep increasing supply
from the highest level since 2012.Their net-long
position in West Texas Intermediate crude
dropped 2.1 per cent, as long wagers fell the most
in two months and short bets declined to the
lowest since August, U.S. Commodity Futures
Trading Commission data show.
Opec's push to defend its share of the global oil
Copywright @ DNSE
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015
market has just begun and its members may
further increase production, the International
Energy Agency said May 13. Saudi Arabia said it
boosted output to the highest level in at least
three decades. Oil explorers in the U.S. reduced
the rig count last week by the least since
December, diminishing the probability that
supply will contract.
DOMESTIC NEWS
Stock market highlights
Gasoline prices rise by 6%
Copywright @ DNSE
Last week experienced explosion in point and
liquidity on HOSE and slight improvement on
HNX. On HOSE, liquidity rocketed with more than
104 million traded stocks, equivalent to 1.4
trillion, increased by 40% compared to last week.
4 consecutive increasing days helped the VNindex climbed to 562 points, which is 5% higher
than last week. HNX, however, showed less
impressive recovery with only 1% increasing in
the HNX-index. The liquidity on this exchange
increased 23% in volume and 16% in value, with
more than 44 million stocks traded, equivalent at
nearly 500 billion.
The ministries of Finance and Industry and Trade
yesterday enabled enterprises to increase
gasoline prices by VND1,200 (six cents) per litre
in the wake of increasing global fuel prices.The
Viet Nam National Petroleum Group (Petrolimex)
immediately raised their retail price following the
decision.The new prices are VND21,030 ($1) per
litre for RON 95 gasoline, VND20,430 (97 cents)
per litre for RON 92 gasoline and VND20,100 (95
cents) per litre for biofuel E5.
This is the fifth time petrol prices have been
adjusted this year, after two cuts and two
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015
increases. Petroleum prices were last raised on
May 5 by nearly VND2,000 (10 cents) per litre.
Vietnam still grows below
potential
The World Bank chief economist in Viet Nam,
Sandeep Mahajan, has shared his views on the
country’s socioeconomic performance. The heart
of recent improved performance in Vietnam was
stronger macroeconomic fundamentals, solid
foreign direct investments in manufacturing
sector and exports from the sector, and key
reforms to the business climate. Industrial
production grew by 9.4 percent (year-on-year) in
2015Q1, up from 5 percent in the same period of
2014. Export performance of FDI sector also
remains strong, partly compensating for the
softening of the commodity export earnings on
account of weaker global prices. The agriculture
sector has also been a stabilizing force in recent
years and the services sector has maintained
steady growth rates in the 6-7% range since
2010.
It is important to recognize, however, that
despite the recent improvements, the Vietnamese
economy still performs below its potential.
Copywright @ DNSE
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DAINAM Securities
CPI rise 0.16% in May
Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015
The consumer price index (CPI) for May showed
an increase of 0.16 percentover April and a yearon-year surge of 0.95 percent, the General
Statistics Offices (GSO) said on May 24.
Hence, average CPI in the first five months of
2015 increased 0.83 percentcompared to the
same
period last
year.Seven out
of
11
main commodity groups inthePI baskets showed
price increase, led by housing and building
materials, which jumped 1.27 percentsince last
month.
The office forecasted CPI in June will see a slight
growth due to continued effect from the petrol
price hike on May 20 and high demand of
electricity during hot weather
FOREIGN INVESTOR ACTIVITIES
150
100
50
HOSE
HNX
0
18.05 19.05 20.05 21.05 22.05
-50
11.05 12.05 13.05 14.05 15.05
-100
Net buy 405 billion on HOSE
Net buy 111.8 billion on HNX
Copywright @ DNSE
Last week, the market saw strong net buy
activities on both exchange, after a previous week
of net sell. This group of investors net bought the
whole week on HOSE with total value of 405.15
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015
billion, in which, Friday was the most significant
day with 145 billion. Most interested stock last
week were SSI, VCB, FPT, GAS while most net sell
stocks were HPG, SBT, TDC, SRC and HAG. On
HNX, they also net bought in all trading sessions
with 111.8 billion trading value. In this exchange,
PVS, PVB, VND, HUT and BBC were the most
interested ones, while SHB, DBC, BBS, NHM and
ONE were in top 5 net sold stocks.
TECHNICAL ANALYSIS
The market experienced a strong pull-back after testing the support point of 530 points.
Liquidity of the market was significantly improved; VNIndex broke out the 555
resistance threshold. Closing the week, VNIndex reached 561.82 points.Weekly
candlestick of VNIndex formed a hollow body covering the last two candlesticks.
Other indicators: MACD and Signal line were still well under Zero level but MACD
started cutting the Signal line from beneath; that indicates a new rally. Meanwhile, RSI
and MFI at the end of the week were 54.65 and 56.24 respectively and the two lines
created an upscale form, translating the possibility of a mid-term uptrend.
However, in terms of individual stocks, there emerged profit taking activities amongst
investors. We think that the trend will be stronger in the week from 25-29/May and
that despite early indication of a trough, the market still need some correction sessions
Copywright @ DNSE
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DAINAM Securities
Weekly market report from 25/05/2015 to 29/05/2015
to officially confirm an obvious rally.
For more information, please
contact:
Statement of Disclaimer
-
Phuong My Hang Pham
Department of Analysis
Email: [email protected]
Phone: (04) 7304 7304 (ext201)
DAINAM Securities joint stock
company
Head office: 12A Floor, Centre
buldingHapulico Complex, Number
01 Nguyen HuyTuong, ThanhXuan,
Ha Noi.
Tel: (04) 7304 7304
Fax: (04) 73 073 073
Website: www.dnse.com.vn
Copywright @ DNSE
Information contained on this report
based on the resources that DNSE
believed as accurate at the time, but
maybe updated, amended or superseded
by subsequent disclosures, or may be
outdated and inaccurate over time. DNSE
does not undertake any obligation to
insure the accuracy, updating of these
information.
- Recommendations on this report are
subjective views of analysts. Investors
using this report as source of reference
take full responsibility for their
investment decisions.
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