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Asia-Pacific Equity Research
Financials – banks
July 2012
Financials – banks
Banks team
Todd Dunivant*
Head of Banks Research, Asia-Pacific
Focus: China banks, Hong Kong Banks
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
+852 2996 6599
[email protected]
York Pun*
Analyst
Focus: Hong Kong Bank, Exchanges, HK/China Brokers
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
+852 2822 4396
[email protected]
Xiushi Cai*
Analyst
Focus: Thailand and Philippines Banks
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,
Singapore Branch
+65 6658 0624
[email protected]
Sachin Sheth*
Anslyst
Focus: India Banks & NBFCs
HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited
+91 22 2268 1224
[email protected]
Kar Weng Loo*
Analyst
Focus: Singapore, Indonesia and Malaysia Banks
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,
Singapore Branch
+65 6658 0654
[email protected]
Eric Mak*
Analyst
Focus:China Banks
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited
+852 2996 6585
[email protected]
Tejas Mehta*
Analyst
Focus: India Banks & NBFCs
HSBC Securities and Capital Markets (India) Private Limited
+91 22 2268 1243
[email protected]
Bruce Warden*
Analyst
Focus: Taiwan Financials
HSBC Securities (Taiwan) Corporation Limited
+886 2 8725 6028
[email protected]
Sector sales
Matthew Robertson
+44 20 7991 5077
[email protected]
Jonathan Weetman
+44 20 7991 5939
[email protected]
Kathy Park*
Analyst
Focus: Korea Banks, Brokers and Monolines
The Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation Limited,
Seoul Securities Branch
+822 2 3706 8755
[email protected]
*Employed by a non-US affiliate of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc, and is not registered/qualified pursuant to FINRA regulations
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Asia-Pacific Equity Research
Financials – banks
July 2012
Sector structure
Asian Financials
HK
China
Taiwan
Korea
Singapore
Indonesia
Malaysia
Thailand
Philippines
India
BOCHK
BEA
WHB
DSF
DSBG
ICBC
CCB
ABC
BOC
BOCom
CMB
CITIC
CMBC
CQRCB
PDB
IndB
Cathay
Chinatrust
Fubon
Shin Kong
Sinopac
E. Sun
Yuanta
Mega
First
HFG
IBK
KB
SFG
WFG
DB
BS
DBS
OCBC
UOB
BBCA
BBRI
BDMN
BMRI
MAY
CIMB
PBK
AMM
HLBK
RHBC
SCB
BBL
KBANK
KTB
BAY
TCAP
BDO
BPI
MBT
BOB
Canara
HDFCB
ICICI
PNB
SBIN
UTI
HDFC
Union
Yes
IndusInd
BOI
LICHF
LTFH
GTJAI
HKex
CITICS
Haitong
SGX
MAS
SS
KIH
SC
Banks/Holding Companies/NBFCs
Capital Markets
Monolines
Source: HSBC
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FEH
250.0
Sub-prime crisis
Greece dow ngrade;
Start of European crisis
LTRO 2
Bear Stearns sold
200.0
EFSF created
LTRO 1
Asia-Pacific Equity Research
Financials – banks
July 2012
Sector price history
Fannie Mae, Freddie
Mac taken ov er
150.0
Asian Financial
crisis
Dotcom bust
100.0
9/11
Lehman bankruptcy ;
Merill Ly nch sold
50.0
May -97 Nov -97 May -98 Nov -98 May -99 Nov -99 May -00 Nov -00 May -01 Nov -01 May -02 Nov -02 May -03 Nov -03 May -04 Nov -04 May -05 Nov -05 May -06 Nov -06 May -07 Nov -07 May -08 Nov -08 May -09 Nov -09 May -10 Nov -10 May -11 Nov -11 May -12
MSCI Asia x JP
MSCI Asia x JP Banks
Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream; rebased to May 1997, HSBC
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Financials – banks
July 2012
Asian banks PE, PB and ROE comparison for 2012
20.0
18.0
Taiwan FHCs
India Banks & NBFCs
16.0
Indonesia Banks
Philippine Banks
14.0
Singapore Banks
Malaysia Banks
Hong Kong Banks
12.0
FY12e PE
Thailand Banks
10.0
8.0
Korean Banks
China A-share Banks
China H-share Banks
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
3.5
FY12e PB
Source: Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC sector estimates; size of the bubble represents 2012e ROE
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Asia-Pacific Equity Research
Financials – banks
July 2012
Financials is Asia’s largest sector, almost twice as big as technology, the second biggest sector. It has
outperformed MSCI Asia by 1.6x in the last decade. Given its size, we break the sector into three subsegments – banks, property and insurance – and dedicate a chapter to each.
Sector description
The bank sector functions as an intermediary between sources of capital (investors and depositors) and
users of capital (individuals, corporations and governments). In providing this function banks take on
three major risks: credit risk (the risk that a borrower will not repay a loan), interest rate risk (changes in
the yield curve may change funding costs and asset yields) and liquidity risk (the risk, usually in a crisis,
that assets cannot be liquidated quickly enough to cover any short-term funding deficiency).
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Todd Dunivant*
Head of Banks Research,
Asia Pacific
The Hongkong and Shanghai
Banking Corporation Limited
+852 2996 6599
[email protected]
*Employed by a non-US affiliate
of HSBC Securities (USA) Inc,
and is not registered/ qualified
pursuant to FINRA regulations
Within the financials sector, banks represent the biggest share, with a combined market cap in excess of
USD1.4trn. The large Chinese banks (Industrial and Commercial Bank of China, China Construction Bank,
Agricultural Bank of China and Bank of China) account for about 40% of the combined market capitalisation
of banks in Asia, excluding Australia and Japan. Asia’s banking sectors are a study in contrasts in terms
of government/regulator invention, product sophistication and business model evolution. More developed
sectors, as in Hong Kong and Singapore, may look more like developed market counterparts, with less
government intervention. Other banking sectors range from more developed (say, Korea) to earlier-stage
emerging markets (say Indonesia), with China and India somewhere in between.
Key themes
The global financial crisis was a stark reminder that financial markets have become increasingly linked.
While the export-centric economies of Asia have long depended on the spending power of western
consumers, recent growth cycles have increased western banks’ exposure to financial and economic risks
in Asia. Banks globally are linked through counterparty transactions, credit risks and currency volatility.
Another consequence of the crisis has been new regulations, including higher provision costs, limiting
yield on some lending assets and the introduction of Basel III capital and liquidity rules.
The low interest rate and flush liquidity environments that have emerged since the crisis, plus the
expectation of greater regulations, will put pressure on bank earnings. Banks are leveraged entities, so
lower leverage in a low rate environment tends to lead to lower returns on invested capital (ROE). Banks,
particularly in emerging markets, can be a proxy for economic expansion. Earnings are often closely
correlated to economic growth in the countries where they operate; volume growth is often a function of
GDP growth, whilst provisions/losses can be linked to both domestic and global economic risks. Other
than GDP, the main sector themes are lending and deposit volumes, interest rates and asset quality.
Sector drivers
How a bank manages the complexity of its balance sheet and mitigates the key risks (credit, interest rate
and liquidity risk) drives the profitability and return on assets. Key factors to watch are the following:
 Net interest income (NII) – the difference between the total interest earned from assets (loans,
investment assets) and total interest rate paid on liabilities (deposits, interbank borrowings, funding
debentures, debt capital). For Asian banks, NII typically represents 65-80% of operating income.
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Asia-Pacific Equity Research
Financials – banks
July 2012
 Fee and commission income – includes product/agency fees, account fees, overdraft fees, payments,
arrangement fees, guarantees and asset management fees. Fee income is typically 15-30% of
operating income in Asia.
 Trading income – gains/losses from disposal of assets held as investments or to manage key risks
(primarily interest rate and liquidity risks). In addition, some banks may have businesses that derive
trading income by transacting in securities/derivatives/forex for customers. This component of
income is the most volatile and typically accounts for less than 10% of operating income across Asia.
 Provision expense – including charges to cover potential/actual losses on risk assets. There are two
main asset groups to consider: loans and investment securities. Banks set aside a proportion of
current income to cover possible losses or defaults. Non-performing loans (NPLs) tend to increase in
periods of economic difficulty and rising NPLs mean higher loan loss provisions. These charges
come through the P&L and reduce the current earnings power of the bank.
Key segments
Hong Kong
The Hong Kong banking sector is mature, with the top five banks accounting for over 60% of total
deposits in the system. It has the highest credit to GDP ratio in Asia, which can partially be explained by
Hong Kong’s position as a regional hub for financial management and capital flows. Credit quality in
mid-2012 was the best in the last decade, the result of excess liquidity, low rates and robust economic
performance. Between 2009 and May 2012 Hong Kong banks’ total loans increased by nearly 50%, with
around half for overseas use, probably by Chinese companies.
Hong Kong banks are on the cusp of what could be a key structural change in Asia – the rise of the
renminbi for off-shore banking and financial transactions. Following increased flexibility in deposit
accounts and trade settlement, renminbi deposits in Hong Kong peaked at RMB627bn in November 2011
and totalled RMB554bn at end-1Q12. The renminbi is expected to be a driver of future growth, especially
as more renminbi-denominated assets become available in Hong Kong.
China
China’s banking system comprises four main groups of banks: state owned banks (SOE banks), joint
stock commercial banks (JSCBs), city/provincial commercial banks and credit co-operatives. Loans in the
system essentially doubled over 2007-11 partly due to the large stimulus programme triggered by the
global financial crisis. Bank lending is the primary source of capital in China and accounts for >70% of
total financing as the corporate bond market remains relatively small and equity market listings have
slowed in recent years.
The banking system remains heavily skewed to large, SOE banks. Five banks (ICBC, CCB, ABC, BOC,
and Bank of Communications) control nearly two-thirds of the deposit base. Mid-size banks (mostly
JSCBs) are liquidity constrained, with a maximum loan-to-deposit ratio (LDR) of 75%. Interestingly, the
largest (SOE) and the smallest (credit co-operatives) institutions are the most liquid and have the most
flexibility to lend.
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Asia-Pacific Equity Research
Financials – banks
July 2012
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There are three specific risks associated with China’s banking sector: (1) Credit risk remains a concern as
a result of robust lending since 2007, particularly to local government financial vehicles (LGFVs) for
infrastructure projects. (2) Interest rate risk as regulators plan to liberalise interest rates in China. (3)
Liquidity risk may rise as deposits decline, adding complexity to balance sheet management. Given the
historically high level of intervention by the government in the banking system, the timing of regulatory
change will influence the size of these risks.
Taiwan
Taiwan’s financial system has evolved from a mix of banks, brokerages and insurance companies into a
core of financial holding companies (FHCs) since 2000. Some of these FHCs are more bank-centric (e.g.
Chinatrust or Mega), some insurance-centric (Cathay or Fubon), and other brokerage-centric (Yuanta).
Growth in Taiwan financials has been lacklustre compared with the rest of the region over the past few
years. Corporate investments have been made more outside Taiwan, mainly in China. Thin spreads for
bank loans have kept margins low and provide little buffer for any increase in credit costs.
Cross-Strait negotiations between Taiwan and China remain a focus. The Economic Co-operation
Framework Agreement (ECFA) signed in 2010 includes a tariff reduction for more than 500 Taiwan
imports into China. In future, there are expectations of closer collaboration between banks that may lead
to equity investments by Chinese banks in their Taiwan counterparts. Other drivers could be the
availability of renminbi for onshore trade settlement in Taiwan and renminbi-denominated products
(similar to Hong Kong but on a smaller scale).
Korea
Korea’s banking system can be divided into four main sub-segments: large, more diversified banks (e.g.
KB Financial, Shinhan FG, Hana Financial, and Woori FG), mid-size/specialised banks (e.g. Industrial
Bank of Korea and Korea Exchange Bank), and regional banks (e.g. Daegu Banking Group and BS
Financial) and mutual savings banks.
Consolidation, competition and restructuring of corporate debt have been a feature of the sector since the
Asian Financial Crisis and IMF bailout of the late 1990s and early 2000s. Large corporate customers have
restructured their balance sheets, deleveraged and have shifted away from the banks in Korea, relying
more on global debt markets and banks in recent years. This has left the Korean banks to focus more on
the domestic economy, including household borrowers, small/medium enterprises (SMEs) and singleoffice/home-office (SOHO) businesses.
Following this period of restructuring, banks expanded their balance sheets at a faster rate than system
deposits and became increasingly reliant on debenture funding. The ease of raising additional debt
funding (often for 3-years or less) essentially offered no barrier to lending as loan demand remained
strong on the back of broader economic growth. The global financial crisis hit the banks hard. Many SME
loans were restructured (lower rates, interest payment holidays, extended terms) and credit costs soared
well above 150bps for some banks for SME loans and troubled project financing loans (PF loans). This
cycle is behind the banks and from 2012 attributable profits recovered due to sharp drops in credit costs.
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Financials – banks
July 2012
ASEAN
Banks across ASEAN were among the first affected during the Asian Financial Crisis in the late-1990s.
Aside from Singapore, these banking sectors have been perhaps more prone to economic cycles simply
due to the more domestic focus of the banks. Like Hong Kong, Singapore does not have a central bank.
The Monetary Authority of Singapore regulates the banking system but, unlike central banks, it does not
manage monetary liquidity via interest rates; instead it uses foreign exchange mechanisms to target a
trading range for the Singapore dollar.
In Singapore, there are three main domestic banks. DBS is the largest bank and earns more than 90% of
profits from Singapore and Hong Kong. United Overseas Bank (UOB) makes c95% of consolidated
profits from banking services in Singapore, Malaysia, and Indonesia. The banking unit of OverseaChinese Banking Corp (OCBC) has a similar earnings concentration to UOB, but the group’s business is
more diversified through a c85% holding in Great Eastern Holdings (the largest insurer in Singapore and
Malaysia) and the acquisition of ING Private Bank (rebranded Bank of Singapore).
In Indonesia, credit penetration stands at only 26%, one of the lowest in the region. Assuming average
20% credit growth pa and sustained 12% nominal GDP growth it will take more than 15 years to reach
the same credit penetration level as Thailand (76%) and 20 years to be where Malaysia (116%) is today.
As the economy continues to expand, so should demand for credit. Large, liquid banks with strong
deposit franchises such as BCA are best positioned to benefit from a cyclical pick-up in credit demand.
Loan growth in Malaysia has been at an all-time high and asset quality the most stable since the 1997-98
Asian Financial Crisis. Operating costs are quite lean for most banks. Re-rating of the Malaysian banks
has been driven by expanding sector ROE which has been driven more by lower credit costs than top-line
income growth. In Thailand banks should benefit from rising penetration of consumer banking products
such as car and motorcycle loans and mortgages. Corporate credit demand accelerated following the
floods of 4Q11, and fee income is likely to remain a key driver for continued expansion of return on assets,
especially for Siam Commercial Bank. Bangkok Bank stands out in terms of asset quality and its deposit
franchise; Kasikornbank is most exposed to the export cycle, as SMEs are major customers.
Economic growth in the Philippines accelerated in 2011 and 1Q12 on the back of increased government
spending, export growth and stronger domestic consumption. This, in turn, has seen bank credit accelerate
and the general momentum of the Philippine economy should continue to drive banking sector growth. A
big hurdle standing in the way of faster RoA expansion is operating costs, primarily staff wages. Operating
costs are rising in a sector with some of the higher cost-to-income metrics in Asia at 55-60%.
India
Indian banks can be grouped into three categories: public sector banks, where the government is the
sole/primary shareholder, private banks, and non-bank financials (NBFCs) that are a mix of specialised
financing companies which are predominately wholesale funded as they lack strong deposit bases.
The sector has experienced a period of rapid credit expansion since the global recession of 2008-09. Loan
demand for corporate capital expenditure, home mortgages and personal consumption (cars and
motorcycles) has contributed to this growth cycle. This has been accompanied by tight liquidity, higher
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Asia-Pacific Equity Research
Financials – banks
July 2012
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and somewhat stubborn inflation. In the first three months of 2012 India’s economic growth fell to its
lowest level in nine years, pointing to a slower growth outlook.
Valuation
Implied PB/Dividend Discount/Gordon Growth/Warranted Equity Model: All these valuation
techniques are basically variants of the dividend discount method. This produces a valuation which
reflects banks’ long-term profitability, using the following formula:
Implied PB = (ROE – g)/(COE – g), where:
 ROE = sustainable return on equity
 g = Reflects the expected growth of the bank in the long term
 COE= Cost of equity, computed using the CAPM method:
COE = Rf + β × Er
where Rf = risk-free rate, β = beta of the security, and Er = equity risk premium
DCF-based methodologies: Also called the residual income or the economic value added method with
some modifications to the discounted cash flow method. Residual income is calculated as (ROE – COE)
× Shareholders’ Equity. This signifies the excess of income earned over the cost of equity for a bank.
Implied PE can also be computed a slight change to the above calculation:
Implied PE = (ROE – g)/(ROE × [COE – g])
This also has similar characteristics as the implied PB methodology.
Historical trading bands: This methodology assumes that for a stable business the trading multiple is
unlikely to change significantly unless there is a significant re-rating of the stock or the country.
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Asia-Pacific Equity Research
Financials – banks
July 2012
Asian banking sector summary data
______2005 _____ ______2006 ______ ______ 2007 ______ ______ 2008 ______ _____ 2009______ ______2010 _____ ______ 2011 ______
LCY (bn) USD (bn) LCY (bn) USD (bn) LCY (bn) USD (bn) LCY (bn) USD (bn) LCY (bn) USD (bn) LCY (bn) USD (bn) LCY (bn) USD (bn)
Hong Kong
Total assets
Total loans
% GDP
Total deposits
7,247
2,312
167%
4,068
935
298
China
Total assets
Total loans
% GDP
Total deposits
30,204
20,684
112%
30,021
3,743
2,563
Taiwan
Total assets
Total loans
% GDP
Total deposits
30,366
17,158
146%
22,991
925
522
Korea
Total assets
1,118,100
Total loans
756,710
% GDP
87%
Total deposits
656,728
Singapore
Total assets
Total Loan
% GDP
Total deposits
425
183
88%
224
Indonesia
Total assets
1,490,220
Total Loan
698,681
% GDP
25%
Total deposits 1,076,113
525
3,720
700
8,306
2,468
167%
4,757
1,068
317
36,517
23,828
110%
34,802
4,679
3,053
31,928
17,599
144%
24,172
980
540
1,106 1,262,067
749 874,152
96%
650 706,715
256
110
135
508
195
84%
272
4,459
742
1,327
380
35,363
27,775
104%
40,105
4,842
3,803
32,769
18,022
140%
24,390
1,010
556
1,357 1,409,803
940 988,989
101%
760 747,886
331
127
178
583
233
88%
315
753
5,491
752
10,754
3,286
196%
6,058
1,388
424
39,558
32,005
102%
47,844
5,798
4,691
34,939
18,470
146%
26,301
1,065
563
1,506 1,714,567
1,057 1,162,141
113%
799 873,391
405
162
219
668
272
100%
348
782
7,012
801
10,635
3,288
203%
6,381
1,372
424
52,080
42,560
125%
61,201
7,628
6,234
36,711
18,599
149%
27,975
1,148
581
1,361 1,642,947
923 1,169,474
110%
693 929,143
464
189
241
707
281
106%
391
823
8,964
875
12,291
4,228
243%
6,862
1,581
544
61,530
50,923
127%
73,338
9,337
7,728
37,797
19,853
146%
29,392
1,411 1,668,553
1,004 1,198,447
102%
798 986,529
503
200
279
782
323
106%
434
13,741
5,080
268%
7,591
1,769
654
69,797
58,189
123%
82,670
11,089
9,245
39,908
20,961
152%
30,782
1,318
692
1,470 1,782,550
1,056 1,287,224
104%
869 1,072,337
1,547
1,117
883
11,129
1,296
681
1,008
610
252
339
977
13,135
1,017
931
859
420
129%
483
663
324
373
151 1,716,895
71 796,460
24%
109 1,229,133
191 2,014,242
89 1,004,177
25%
137 1,462,862
214 2,343,090
107 1,313,873
27%
156 1,682,163
215 2,571,660
121 1,446,809
26%
154 1,913,571
274 3,054,595
154 1,783,600
28%
204 2,304,875
339 3,698,294
198 2,223,684
30%
256 2,736,415
408
245
1,093
593
103%
812
310
168
1,221
644
100%
869
369
195
1,338
727
98%
972
387
210
1,426
783
115%
1,063
417
229
1,550
883
115%
1,141
503
286
1,782
1,004
118%
1,299
562
317
8,647
5,861
75%
6,479
239
162
9,005
6,130
72%
6,480
267
182
10,047
6,824
75%
7,037
289
196
10,372
6,693
74%
7,004
311
201
11,746
7,456
74%
7,365
390
247
12,981
8,585
81%
7,865
411
272
4,289
1,695
27%
3,071
88
35
4,488
1,857
27%
3,185
109
45
5,035
2,181
28%
3,703
106
46
5,484
2,379
30%
4,126
119
51
6,132
2,591
29%
4,513
140
59
6,541
3,015
31%
4,756
149
69
34,600
17,663
41%
23,884
796
406
43,262
21,481
43%
29,526
1,078
535
52,386
26,454
47%
35,694
1,033
521
60,269
30,246
47%
42,688
1,183
594
71,835
36,446
47%
48,062
1,410
715
NA
42,670
48%
56,726
NA
838
Malaysia
Total assets
Total Loan
% GDP
Total deposits
959
558
107%
693
254
148
Thailand
Total assets
Total Loan
% GDP
Total deposits
7,988
5,530
78%
6,114
195
135
Philippines
Total assets
Total Loan
% GDP
Total deposits
3,857
1,539
27%
2,628
73
29
India*
Total assets
Total Loan
% GDP
Total deposits
27,859
13,525
37%
19,407
625
303
183
149
50
435
*All data December year-end except India, which is March year-end
Note: Conversion to USD done on the exchange rate as of year-end
Source: CEIC, Central bank websites
10
612
10,350
2,962
183%
5,869
230
179
63
549
263
192
77
736
281
202
78
704
310
210
89
838
370
244
103
943
302
410
249
108
1,113
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Asia-Pacific Equity Research
Financials – banks
July 2012
Sector snapshot
Core industry driver: Loan growth and NIM (2012e)
Key sector stats
Financials
30% of MSCI Asia ex-Japan
Trading data
ADTV (USDm)
Aggregated market cap (USDm)
Performance since 1 Jan 2000
Absolute
Relative to MSCI Asia ex Japan
3 largest stocks
Correlations (5-year) with
MSCI Asia ex Japan
89.6
2,421.2
2012e
25%
7%
6%
20%
5%
15%
44%
6%
CCB, ICBC,BOC
10%
97%
0%
4%
3%
2%
5%
1%
0%
CH HK TW KO IN SG ID TH MA PH
Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, Bloomberg, HSBC
Loan grow th(12e) (LHS)
NIM (12e)
Top 10 stocks (MSCI Asia x JP Banks)
Stock rank
Stocks
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
China Construction Bank
Industrial & Comm Bank of China
Bank of China
DBS Group
UOB
OCBC
Shinhan Financial
HDFC Bank
HDFC Limited
KB Financial
Index weight
9.96%
8.83%
6.16%
4.32%
4.13%
4.00%
3.28%
3.27%
3.03%
2.74%
Note: Data represents weightage in MSCI Asia ex-Japan Bank index
Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC
Source: HSBC estimate
PE band chart
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
0
CN
Country breakdown
China
Singapore
India
Korea
Taiwan
Malaysia
Indonesia
Hong Kong
Thailand
Note: Data represents weightage in MSCI Asia ex-Japan Bank index
Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC
32.0
12.4
10.5
10.1
7.6
7.4
6.5
6.4
6.3
TW
KO
2010
Weights (%)
IN
SG
2011
ID
2012
TH MA
PH
2013
Source: MSCI, Thomson Reuters Datastream, HSBC estimates
PB vs ROE FY2012e
20
PH
TW
HK
15
ROE
Country
HK
SG
MA
10
IN
ID
TH
5
KO
CN
0
0.5
1.0
1.5
2.0
2.5
3.0
PB
Source: HSBC estimates
11