Download Security implications of future water use in WB

EEA/NSV/10/002 – ETC/ICM
Security implications of future water use in
Western Balkans: challenge of hydropower
development
Description of Scenarios (Chapter 7) – final draft
Date: 8 January 2014
EEA activity:
EEA West Balkan Cooperation
ETC/ICM Water
Prepared by / compiled by:
Dr. Lidija Globevnik
Luka Snoj
Gašper Šubelj
Organisation:
TC Vode
EEA Project manager:
Anita Pirc Velkavrh
Contents
1. Explorative scenarios and the vision for water availability in relation to climate
change impacts ................................................................................................................................................. 2
1.1
Scenarios as a method to explore Security implications for water use and
hydropower development ......................................................................................................................................... 2
1.2
Western Balkans explorative future scenarios - Framework for scenarios
construction..................................................................................................................................................................... 3
1.3
1.3.1
1.3.2
1.3.3
1.3.4
1.3.5
Western Balkans narrative future scenarios – Characteristics ................................................... 4
Scenario 1 – The good Society ..................................................................................................................................6
Scenario 2 – The Technogarden of the Balkans ...............................................................................................8
Scenario 3 – Run to the hills ................................................................................................................................... 10
Scenario 4 – Downward Spiral .............................................................................................................................. 12
Common Vision ............................................................................................................................................................ 14
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1. Explorative scenarios and the vision for water
availability in relation to climate change impacts
1.1 Scenarios as a method to explore Security implications for water
use and hydropower development
To study future issues and concerns, a wide range of methods as are quantitative projections or
forecasts, narrative scenarios studies in combination with quantitative tools, horizon scanning,
system dynamics, sensitivity analysis, probabilistic analysis, mega trend analysis and backcasting can be used (EEA, 2010d).
There are few different approaches for forward-looking assessment. While short time-horizons
tend to present only low levels of uncertainty, endowing projections of future implications with
some confidence, precise projections can be sometimes even meaningless with high level of
uncertainty. In such cases, exploratory scenario-based approaches can help us to explore key
uncertainties and their implications across a wider range of futures which can be contrasting
(EEA, 2007).
Business leaders and policy-makers often face strategic decision with uncertain future results.
Variety of unpredictable factors outside the decision-maker’s control has an important influence
on such outcomes. With a wish of efficient dealing with deep uncertainty of this sort, scenario
planning has been developed (EEA, 2009).
We can describe future development scenarios as plausible descriptions of how the future may
unfold based on internally consistent and coherent set of assumptions and potential influence of
various or/and variously intense driving forces. Even though they can be described with
qualitative and quantitative data respectively, scenarios are neither forecasts nor predictions.
Using scenarios as a tool, possible threats and risk may be foreseen. Identification of possible
threats and risks is important to establish proper mitigation measures, early warnings and other
precautionary actions. Scenarios are can be used as awareness of plausible futures. Taking them
into consideration and incorporating them into strategic plans, desired future may be achieved
because risks, which were identified within plausible scenarios, can be successfully mitigated
with suitable executed mitigation measures.
Scenarios can help us illustrate how regions might look like in the future, they can help us
understand how and what changes might occur and the possible repercussions. Their goal is not
prediction of the future bur rather help to uncover what is not known, expected or monitored
(EEA, 2012b).
Scenarios shouldn’t be confused with Visions. Vision can be described as an image or idea of
desirable and preferable future. A vision can also include descriptions of the development
towards desirable future. The role of vision is to leverage change by targeting potential change
agents and mobilising resources. Vision can be achieved with suitable strategic planning and
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mitigation of potential future risks and threats which can be identified and their intensity
assessed within scenarios.
Explorative scenarios considering West Balkan region are outcome of three workshops.
Scenarios, their characteristics and key driving forces were developed on workshop held in
Belgrade in 2011. Scenarios are reflecting the key uncertainties regarding sustainability of
economic growth and extent of climate change impacts (EEA, 2012b).
Furthermore, scenarios were implemented with emphasise how to manage the water security
implication regarding (un)sustainable economic growth and climate change extent in the
Western Balkans.
1.2 Western Balkans explorative future scenarios - Framework for
scenarios construction
In this chapter we are reviewing the main drivers that most likely play a major role in shaping
the future of Western Balkans in the next decades. It builds on analysis carried out in recent and
on-going EEA work, including the reports The pan-european environment: glimpses into an
uncertain future (2007) and Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western Balkans: future
production and consumption patterns (2010d).
The EEA’s work on driving forces is based on the STEEPL framework. The STEEPL is used to
identify drivers for future analyses (EEA, 2010d). This framework classifies driving forces
shaping the Western Balkans future into five broad categories.
Figure 1: STEEPL driving forces method and Western Balkans key driving forces.
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In our case, scenario axis approach was used. According to that approach a set of key driving
forces is identified in the first phase. In the second phase two driving forces, regarded to be most
important and most uncertain in terms of their future development, form the axes of a matrix.
For the Western Balkans future scenarios framework, a set of six key driving forces was taken
from STEEPL framework. Further, Climate change extent and (Un)sustainable economic growth
were found to be the most important and most uncertain driving forces with a significant effect
on other driving forces. Different climate change impacts can have a different effect on
population, technology development, politics, legislation etc. Equally important driving force
shaping the future picture of Western Balkans is also (un)sustainability of economic growth
which similarly effects other driving forces. Regarding the precedent extent, scale and
characteristics of main driving forces four different future scenarios were developed. For each
scenario, characteristics of STEEPL driving forces are described with emphasize of their
influence on water availability and other security implications modules.
1.3 Western Balkans narrative future scenarios – Characteristics
Reflecting the key uncertainties regarding the extent of climate change impacts and the
sustainability of economic growth, four plausible future scenarios were developed as result of
open discussions with national experts from Western Balkans countries, ETC and EEA members.
One of the outcomes of the workshops are identified risks of spatially and temporally uneven
water supply as a result of changing climate patterns and appropriateness of adopted mitigation
measures and their effect on susceptibility, coping capacity and adaptive capacity of exposed
elements with emphasize on water availability and security of hydro power energy supply. For
each scenario, extent and characteristics of main driving forces are described. Regarding the
extent of key driving forces, intensity and probability of threats, various vulnerability levels
were discussed, estimated and described. Levels of various identified risks were defined as the
combination of the probability and intensity of a threats/hazards and its negative consequences
which are mainly depended on vulnerability level of exposed elements.
The Western Balkans explorative scenarios were concentrated on water use, energy supply with
specific focus on challenges regarding hydropower development. To give a better scenario
background understanding it is important to define major driving forces and their
characteristics.
Low climate change – Temperatures rise is not high and doesn’t have a major impact on
ecosystems, amount and distribution of precipitation and water availability. Probability and
intensity of threats and hazards is low.
High climate change – Temperature rise is high and has a significant impact on ecosystem,
amount and distribution of precipitation and water availability. Probability and intensity of
threats and hazards is high.
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Sustainable economic growth - High economic growth with ensuring the sustainability of
natural systems and the environment so that needs can be meet not only today but also for
future generations. High public participation and involvement in strategic planning is bringing
socio-political sustainability.
Unsustainable economic growth – Insufficient strategic planning with low public participation
and involvement is causing low or even stagnating economic growth with high socio-political
instability. Exploitation of natural resources is unsustainable with low environmental
awareness.
Without doubt, extent of the climate change and its impacts represents a key question for the
future of Western Balkans. International panel of climate change (IPCC) developed a series of
global emission scenarios. The scenario that sees the smallest increase in global temperature for
1.8 °C is called B1. This IPPC scenario is described as integrated world that focuses on
sustainability and resource-efficient technologies. On the other side, a market-focused world
where future technologies would be based on fossil fuels could cause temperature rise by 4 °C by
the end of this century (EEA, 2010; Environmental trends and perspectives in the Western
Balkans…).
Figure 2: Western Balkans explorative scenarios.
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1.3.1
Scenario 1 – The good Society
Storyline
The good Society scenario is the most pleasant scenario of all with a low climate change impact
and sustainable economic growth which is providing safe, stable and environmentally friendly
living conditions in Western Balkans. Population is increasing, education system is on high level,
GDP is high and so it is level of health care. There is a strong environmental legislation which is
positively contributing to general good environmental awareness. Water resources are being
exploited in sustainable way with emphasize on good drinking quality water and efficient
hydropower energy production. Transboundary cooperation within Western Balkan is good and
successful.
Social – People are migrating to urban areas, farmlands are abandoned, especially in mountain
areas. Migrations within a region are not rare, urban areas (especially coastal) are sprawling.
Population is increasing especially in Albania and Kosovo under UN Security Council Resolution
1244/99, ageing of population may occur as well. Level of education is high due to good and
sufficient education system. Returned emigrants are bringing new skills and have positive
contribution to economic development and general well-being. Coastal and other scenic areas as
are mountains and spas of the Western Balkans became a new Europe-wide destination for
elderly people seeking retirement homes in warmer climate.
Technology – Technology is developing fast and becomes very important driving force of the
region. Good and stimulating environment for developing Best Available Technology (BAT) is
established. Industry is declining while service-oriented economies are contributing significant
share to GDP. Important opportunity is also the development of new energy technologies to
combat climate change. Political and social acceptance of new technologies will be closely tied to
perceived risks and impacts. With precautionary principles and investigated risks new
technologies such as genetically modified organisms may be introduced as well. Acceptance of
new technologies is depended on public perception of risks and assessed opportunities. New
energy technologies and new manufacturing technologies are reducing greenhouse gas
emissions, regional pollution and natural resource use. Dissemination of more efficient
technologies which are tailored to Western Balkans problems is fast. Due to sufficient and fast
research, nanotechnologies are used to develop low-cost photovoltaic cells. There is a constant
public eye which weights the technological benefits versus estimated potential risks.
Hydropower, water use and energy capacity – New dams for hydropower purposes are built
in sustainable way. Due to new introduced technologies, efficiency of hydro power plans can be
improved up to 20 % with lower energy loses. Share of hydropower plants will increase in all
Western Balkan countries but with big regional differences in hydro power share in electricity
production between countries. Not all hydropower potential will be exploited till 2030. There
will be strong transboundary cooperation within Western Balkans regarding hydro power
issues.
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Environmental - There is no water scarcity due to the low climate change and sustainable
water management. Biodiversity is not endangered as well. The vulnerability of different habitat
types, species and water resources is low due to high adaptive capacities and low susceptibility.
Good environmental status is achieved. Due to determination and protection of areas with
highest environmental and ecological value, hydro-power plant “no-go areas” are designated.
West Balkan region is ecologically diverse with good and sufficient monitoring system and case
to case impact studies. Quality of drinking water is not endangered due to sufficient water
supply infrastructure, deindustrialization and construction of treatment plants. Highest impact
on environment might occur on coastal areas where sprawl of urban areas will be the highest
due to development of tourism. EU is requiring regular monitoring of environmental condition
and inspections to ensure sustainable operating of industrial plants and other facilities.
Economy – All countries of West Balkan are members of European Union. The process and of
integration and accession is supporting economic growth and region cooperation in the region.
GDP is high in all Western Balkans countries with regional differences. There is uncertainty of
integration of Western Balkans into global trade markets or concentration of regional
cooperation. There is good transboundary economy cooperation between countries of West
Balkans, surrounding countries and European Union. Future global agreements are opening EU
markets, as well as those in the Western Balkans, to higher level of agricultural imports from
distant countries such as Australia and South America which is leading small farmers out of
business and encouraging large agricultural enterprises to integrate more intensive methods as
it is irrigation. Sustainable economic growth is providing resources to address environmental
issues, such as financing for investments. Share of private sector on the market is not exceeding
40%.
Politics - High public participation and involvement in strategic planning is bringing sociopolitical sustainability. Western Balkans is part of global politics which is setting the scene and
determining the agreements to tackle major environmental problems, such as climate change
and biodiversity loss. There is a high motivation for providing international aid.
Legislation and policy - Introduction of stronger environmental policies and laws as European
Union accession involves harmonising national legislation with EU legislation. Sustainability and
environment are in the centre of policy-making. Strong EU legislation is changing energy
systems in the Western Balkans (type of household heating, car pollution regulation etc.).
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1.3.2
Scenario 2 – The Technogarden of the Balkans
Scenario 2 is less pleasant than Scenario 1 due to higher impacts of climate change which are
partly mitigated with sustainable economic growth and adopted strategic measures.
Storyline
Western Balkans is part of global world which relies on environmentally sound technology.
Basic characteristics of this scenario are controlled technology drive, ground water drop, green
economy, sprawl of urban areas, use of renewable resources and water re-use. Research is
moving fast, due to stimulating environment for technological innovations. Terms “Reuse” and
“Recycle” are integrated in all living sectors. Benefits of new technologies are often outweighing
their risks. Water shortage is mitigated with high-tech technological measures. Environmental
concerns are connected with water availability, biodiversity loss, and introduction of invasive,
high temperature resilient species. Political stability, transboundary collaboration and
integration of EU legislation are providing safe and stable living conditions.
Social – Social patterns for Scenario 1 are similar to the patterns in Scenario 2. There is a big
sprawl of urban areas which is causing abandonment of mountainous and rural areas.
Urbanization of coastal cities is uncertain due to higher temperatures and possible sea level rise.
Level of education social and environmental awareness is high due to efficient education system,
consumption is decreasing. Urban areas are densely populated and ultra-efficient. Returned
emigrants are bringing new skills and are contributing positively to economic, social and
environmental development and general well-being.
Technology – Technological development is one of the main driving forces in the region. With
environmental friendly technology, impacts of climate changes are successfully mitigated. The
promise of new technologies is occasionally outweighing their risks. Research has move fast,
nanotechnologies and similar high tech technologies have been used to develop low cost
photovoltaic cells and other products that are close to market. Environment for technological
development is stimulating, smart technologies are integrated in all sectors. Genetically modified
organisms, which are resilient to higher temperatures, are introduced in agriculture sector. Key
technology characteristics are high efficiency, low energy losses, reuse and recycling. Western
Balkans is successfully following global trends in technology, nonetheless are governments
supporting new environmentally friendly technology in the region by encouraging universities
and businesses to cooperate with other institutions on European and global scale.
Hydropower, water use and energy capacity – Quality of drinking water is good due to
efficient water resources treatment and modern sufficient infrastructure. Climate change
impacts are causing water shortage which is successfully mitigated with efficient technological
measures. Everyone has safe access to drinking water of good quality, which is mainly provided
by the public sector. Water supply and sewage systems are modern and efficient. Waste water is
purificated through waste water treatment plants. There is expansion of mostly big but also
small hydropower plants. The share of hydropower energy is about 50 %, the remaining energy
share comes from other, preferably renewable, energy sources. Reservoirs are designed for
multi-purpose and are compensating needs for other sectors respectively. Majority of the rivers
is exploited. Multi-purpose water management is promoted, while there is strong emphasize on
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education and public awareness. Water price is high and is covering also sustainability
achievement measures. To ensure consumers protection, prices are regulated by governments.
Higher water scarcity is present at coastal areas where water shortage is substituted with
desalinization process.
Environmental – Environmental concerns are related to water quantity, introduction of
invasive and higher temperatures resilient species. Urban sprawl and the abandonment of
extensive, high-nature-value farming are representing threat to environment. The habitat losses
in Africa and Western Europe can affect the populations of migratory birds which are passing
through Balkans. Major threat to ecosystems presents climate change; reduced water flows have
a negative impact on freshwater ecosystems, warmer sea temperatures are allowing new
invasive species to prosper into Adriatic and Ionian sea etc. Nevertheless, no significant issues
are expected with regards to terrestrial, freshwater and coastal ecosystems since there is strong
environmental policy, legislation and public environmental awareness. Negative impacts are
partly mitigated with sustainable forestry measures.
Economy – Same as in Scenario 1 all countries of Western Balkans are members of European
Union. Economy is based on transboundary collaboration within West Balkan countries and with
European Union and global markets. Due to high climate change impacts, economy is developing
in sustainable way and providing resources to address environmental issues respectively.
Investments of returned emigrants have a significant contribution to economic development.
There is a steady progress towards regional cooperation as well economic reforms. Reforms are
building trades and investment links between countries of the region as well common
infrastructure on regional scale. Markets in Western Balkans are opened to foreign investments
but with active public participation and strategic regulations. Heat waves and droughts are
reducing yields of some crops. Due to decline in water availability some past irrigation practices
are being abandoned. Companies are adopting management systems to better monitor, evaluate,
and reduce environmental impacts.
Politics – Western Balkans is politically stable. There are strong integrated transboundary
water agreements between the West Balkan countries. Similarly than in scenario 1 region is part
of global politics which is setting the scene and determining the agreements to tackle major
environmental problems, such as climate change and biodiversity loss. Environmental
ministries, agencies and inspectorates are strong an successfully implementing EU legislation
and pursuing effective policies.
Legislation and policy - Legislation, strong control and enforcement are guaranteeing
sustainability and successful climate change impacts mitigation and adaption.
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1.3.3
Scenario 3 – Run to the hills
Main driving forces shaping Scenario 3 are unsustainable economic development and low
climate change impact.
Storyline
Western Balkans can’t make economic and technological breakthrough and is engaged with
poverty, polarization, migration, technological stagnation, corruption etc. Unsustainable
economic growth is providing unstimulated environment for economic transition, and
technological and educational development respectively. That is resulting in migrations of young
and highly educated people, population decline, high inflation and general public dissatisfaction.
In spite of low climate change impact, problems with quality and quantity of water persist due to
unsustainable water management. Import of goods is exceeding export. Western Balkans is
becoming dependent on foreign investment and aid. Important source of GDP is presenting
tourism which is nevertheless causing uncontrolled sprawl of urban areas (especially coastal).
Repressive control, insufficient and unsustainable legislation enforcement are causing unstable
political conditions and social tensions.
Social – Ageing of population is posing important challenge for government social programs and
finances. Unadjusted pension system is risking bankruptcy. Albania and Kosovo under UN
Security Council Resolution 1244/99 are two parts of the region where population is not
declining. These problems are just partly tackled by policy reforms such as changing
employment, tax and pension policies. Especially young and highly educated workers are
migrating into wealthy economies, such as those in Western Europe which has a negative impact
on the Western Balkans economy and social pattern. Public polarization is causing conflicts and
unstable social environment.
Technology – Technological development is stagnating. Introduced new technologies are not
regulated; governments are slow to develop policies and the private sector does not take its
place with its own codes. EU technological regulations are introduced but insufficiently
implemented into legislations. Evan though, technological production is more and less
stagnating in the region, new, environmentally friendly technologies developed in the EU are
spreading quickly to the Western Balkans and reducing environmental impacts.
Hydropower, water use and energy capacity – Water use and energy supply is endangered
due to poor water infrastructure and inefficient irrigation techniques. Water is not privatized
and is used for multipurpose but prioritized for drinking and irrigation. Existing hydropower
capacities are partly maintained with improved efficiency, new hydropower plants are built as
well. Thermo power plants remain important energy source. Use of renewable energy sources as
are sun and wind is slowly increasing as well. Water quality is low due to insufficient and poor
water supply and sewage systems. Water is prioritized for drinking, irrigation and hydropower
use. Quantity of water is reduced despite the low climate change impact due to low efficiency
and unsustainability of water infrastructure. Early warning systems are not operational.
Insufficient water quality and scarcity are also causing health problems. Prices of water are
generally high.
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Environment – Due to unsustainable economic growth which results in pollution and
degradation vulnerability of ecosystems, habitats and species is relatively high even though
climate change impacts are low. Overfishing and invasive species are threating marine
ecosystems in Adriatic and Ionian seas. Highest impact on environment might occur on coastal
areas where urban sprawl is the highest due to uncontrolled development of tourism.
Economy – Poverty remains an important concern and drives people to leave their homes,
either moving internally from rural to urban areas (land abandonment) or leaving the country.
In rural areas poverty is causing higher demand for fuel wood, forest are reduced and
biodiversity is threatened. Due to lack of governmental resources, adequate environmental
infrastructure such as safe drinking water supply, effective solid waste management and
sufficient wastewater treatment are not maintained well. There is insufficient cooperation
between West Balkan countries. The countries in the region do not reach peace agreements.
Legacy of war, institutional concerns and lack of engagement by external power such is
European Union are blocking progress. The pace of economic reform varies significantly across
the region. Economic development is threatened by shifting political environment, separatist
groups looking for opportunities for liberalisation, high unemployment, dependency on foreign
aid and investments and internal shocks. Economic transition with means of developing
capacities to adapt and successfully compete in a globalised world is slow. Privatization of stateowned enterprises continuous. Restructuring of some enterprises has negative consequences as
are cutting staff and closing plants. There are big differences in economic development within
the region.
Politics – Western Balkans is politically unstable. There are weak integrated transboundary
water agreements between the West Balkan countries. All countries accessed into European
Union or are in the accession process. The process of integration and accession is supporting
economic growth and regional cooperation, even though legislation harmonization is rather
difficult and not always successful especially regarding strong environmental laws and policies
as are requirements for drinking water and wastewater treatment. Environmental ministries,
agencies and inspectorates are weak and having difficulties with implementing and executing
effective mainly due to capital lack.
Legislation and policy – Countries have difficulties implementing strict European
environmental legislation into national politics. Repressive control and insufficient legislation
enforcement are causing unsustainability and unpleasant living conditions.
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1.3.4
Scenario 4 – Downward Spiral
Scenario Downward Spiral is the least pleasant scenario with high climate change impacts and
unsustainable economic development as major driving forces.
Storyline
Poverty, high water scarcity, extreme events as are floods and droughts, bipolarization, conflicts,
biodiversity loss and political weakness and insecurity are causing unpleasant living conditions
which are encouraging inhabitants to migrate and seek for better life outside Western Balkans.
Especially young and highly educated people are migrating into wealthy northern countries.
Technological development is depended on foreign investments and guiding. Introduction of
renewable energy resources is rather slow and insufficient. Moreover, there is a general
shortage of water which is aggravating hydropower development and irrigation systems. Fossil
fuels are remaining the most important source of energy. Reduced water flows have negative
impact on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems respectively. Climate change impacts are
poorly mitigated while industry is based on domestic natural resources whose exploitation is
unsustainable and is causing additional environmental damage. Many plant and animal species
are moving northward and uphill in response to observed climate change. Conflicts and
disagreements between West Balkan countries are not rare and are connected with natural
resources and water management. They are constantly slowing down political effectiveness and
economic sustainability as well as causing unstable socio-economic environment. This is neither
attractive for foreign investors nor for emigrants to return.
Social - Social patterns are similar to those in Scenario 3. Urbanization of coastal cities is
uncertain due to higher temperatures, potential sea level rise and low adaptive and coping
capacities of coastal areas. There is a strong bipolarization of society to rich and poor which is
causing conflicts and unpleasant social environment. Especially young and highly educated
workers are migrating into wealthy northern countries with lower climate change impacts
which is causing significant population decline. Climate change is also contributing to the burden
of diseases and premature deaths. Unpleasant living conditions have a wider effect on society
and are causing social tensions.
Technology – Technological development is stagnating or even declining. Introduction of new
technologies is rare and not regulated. EU technological regulations are slowly introduced but
rather insufficiently implemented and executed. Technological development is dependent on
foreign capital, investments and guidance. Investments in renewable energy sources, research
and technology development are low mainly due to a lack of capital.
Hydropower, water use and energy capacity – There is general shortage of water due to
lower amount of precipitation and higher annual temperatures. The number of heating days is
decreasing due higher annual temperatures which help reducing demand for heating but is
strongly increasing demand for cooling and exacerbating peaks in electricity supplies in the
summer. Changed temperatures, rainfall patterns and storms are negatively impacting on
renewable electricity energy generators, conventional electricity energy generators and
availability of cooling water for thermal power generations. Energy efficiency and consumption
are low due to old and not well maintained power plant technology and lack of capital.
Nevertheless, hydropower is still important energy source, new large hydropower plants are
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constructed on big rivers were quantity of water is still sufficient. Thermo power plants are
remaining as important source of energy. Water quality and quality is low due to insufficient and
poor water supply and sewage systems, biodiversity loss and climate change impacts. Water
price is generally high with big regional differences. Water supply and drainage systems are
insufficient, reduced water availability capacities are leading to disintegration of irrigation
system, lower agriculture production and river transport. River flows have increased in winter
and decreased in summer. Good water management practices are poorly known which is
causing a big gap between energy production and research.
Environment – Negative impacts on environment are severe due to high climate change which
results in increased intensity and probability of hazards and high vulnerability which is mainly a
consequence of unsustainable economic development. Water quality and quantity are
endangered. The biggest threat to ecosystems presents climate change; reduced water flows
have a negative impact on terrestrial and freshwater ecosystems respectively, warmer sea
temperatures are allowing new invasive species to prosper into Adriatic and Ionian seas etc.
Climate change is also causing marine acidification which is affecting many marine organisms
and altering marine ecosystems and fisheries. Temperature of lakes and rivers surfaces have
increased together with air temperatures, increased temperature is resulting in marked changes
in species composition, functioning of aquatic ecosystems, earlier and larger phytoplankton
blooms, increased nutrient and dissolved organic concentrations in rivers and lakes.
Unsustainable environmental management is just partly mitigating the climate change impacts.
Many plant and animal species are moving northward and uphill in response to observed
climate change. Many species exceeded their abilities to adapt and migrate, especially where
landscape fragmentation is restricting their movement. More than 20 % of habitats are
threatened by climate change impacts. Bogs, fens and mires are being the most vulnerable
habitat types. Unsustainable confrontation with climate change impacts is not mitigating the
environmental pressures, many human intervention and management changes are even
aggravating environment conditions with increasing susceptibility and lowering adaptive and
coping capacities of exposed objects as are bogs and marshlands. Climate change has a negative
impact also on forests vegetation period, growth, health and distribution of trees and thus on the
services and goods provided by forests.
Economy – Economical situation is similar to situation Scenario 3. Agriculture is under climate
change impacts and is slowly adopting to new environmental conditions but remaining an
important economic sector. Water scarcity has negative impacts on agriculture, especially on
irrigated areas. Economic and political cooperation within region is weak and tense. Service
sector is weak and developing slowly. Industrial sector remains important; industry is based on
domestic natural resources which exploitation is unsustainable and causing additional
environmental damage. There are significant differences in economic development within a
region. Unattractive economic, social and political environment is averting potential foreign
investors. Forestry and wood export is becoming important economic activity which results in
deforestation and land degradation. Deforested areas are partly turning into shrubs and
pastures; grazing is becoming important activity especially in remote rural areas. Coastal
tourism is endangered due to high summer temperatures, heat waves, sea level rise and summer
water shortage while mountainous tourism is growing.
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Politics – Political instability and weak integrated transboundary cooperation are slowing down
political efficiency. All countries accessed into European Union or are in a accession process but
are having difficulties with legislation harmonization, especially regarding environmental laws
and policies. Conflicts and disagreements between West Balkan countries regarding natural
resources and water management are constantly slowing down political effectiveness and
sustainability. Environmental ministries, agencies and inspectorates are hardly handling climate
change impacts; executed mitigation measures are rather slow and insufficient. Mismanagement
and lack of knowledge are causing conflicts between different sectors as are agriculture, energy
production and flood prevention.
Legislation and policy – Countries are having great difficulties with implementing strict
European environmental legislation and other international agreements into national politics.
Repressive control and insufficient legislation enforcement are causing unsustainability and
unpleasant living conditions.
1.3.5
Common Vision
No arid country has become rich without extensive investment in water-retaining dams – they
have been the foundation for economic development in wealthy countries, which have
developed huge inventories of dams. On the other hand, poor countries have orders of
magnitude of less water infrastructure. Also, no mountainous country has become rich without
tapping most of its hydroelectric potential (Fehér, 2013).
In the Ljubljana workshop participants made individual and group visions on hydropower
development until 2033 to meet energy needs, improve wellbeing and reduce environmental
impacts in the West Balkan area. They have used a special vision building tool called “canvas
tool”. It is an web based tool conceptually developed in a frame of 7th FP by Alterra (from NL)
and partners. The content (themes, issues) were specially prepared for the need of workshop.
The structure of themes and issues are the same as the structure of issue analysed in scenarios
and conceptualized in project description.
The purpose of the canvas tool is to “elicit rich visions”. Rich visions are defined as multifaceted
expressions of ideas on the future including images, graphs indicating trends, explanations of
relationships between elements, statements and narrative descriptions.
Using vision tool, participants tried to foresee the WB future questioning the answer “What will
be a shared WB vision hydropower development until 2033 to meet energy needs, improve wellbeing and reduce environmental impacts?” By dragging the issues from the right side of the tool
into canvas (centre of the tool) and connecting those issues with themes participants expressed
their future vision of the WB in 2033. Connections between issues and themes user describes in
textboxes. Graphs and other figures can be added in tool as well. Individual visions are
presented in Appendix 2.
WB picture:
 Hydropower plants are built in sustainable way.
 Multipurpose use of hydropower accumulation lakes.
 Equality.
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



Transboundary cooperation.
Good education system.
General well-being.
Good irrigation efficiency.
Hydropower development is a big and the most important natural potential for the West Balkan
development. It is developed in a sustainable way. The regional and international cooperation is
strong to support sustainable development of hydropower and other water uses. Sustainable
development is achieved through efficient trans-boundary management, collaboration and share
of knowledge and experience with EU countries. Development and use of new technologies is
connected with renewable energy sources (wind, solar, hydro) and is based on EU knowledge
and experience. Existed HPP plants are optimized and maintained sufficiently when new HPP
are built in sustainable way. Development of the region is based on good collaboration within
the regions and between the regions. General well-being is based on good education, security,
“close to nature” lifestyle, good cooperation, sustainable consumption and overall awareness.
Good efficiency in irrigation and energy use. Smart technologies are implemented of in all
economic sectors. Desalination will become an important water source especially in coastal
areas. Water management is allowing multipurpose use of hydropower infrastructure. Quality of
local food is good and poverty is reduced. Water is also used for irrigation while new dams are
allowing water transport.
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