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Capital Account Management (CAM)– Indian Experience Reserve Bank of India 1 Forex Regime in India • Flexible exchange rate regime • Fully convertible on Current Account since 1994 • Capital account convertibility is considered as a “process” and not an “event” 2 Concomitants for Capital Account Convertibility • • • • GFD to be 3% GDP (5.2%) Revenue surplus of 1% of GDP (3.9%) Institutional mechanism for monetary policy i.e. MPC Inflation rates need to converge towards internationally acceptable levels (6.1%) • Banking Sector - promotion of competitive efficiency, prudential regulatory and supervisory policies, accounting standards, risk management systems, etc • Good corporate governance • Financial markets fully integrated and widened Capital account liberalization • Fairly liberalized regime, more so for nonresidents and domestic corporates • The financial integration i.e. the ratio of gross current account and capital account flows to GDP has gone up from 33% in 1990-91 to 44% in 1998-99; 112% in 2008-09; and further to 115% in 2012-13 4 CAD and Capital Flows 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 CAD (% of GDP) 1.0 1.4 2.5 2.8 2.8 Net Capital flows (% of GDP) 4.7 9.5 0.6 3.8 3.7 3.6 4.8 11.3 (14.2) 3.3 3.8 (5) (13.6) Rupee appreciation (+) depreciation (-) vis-à-vis US$ 4.6 4.2 4.8 Indian Context: Two episodes • Episode I - 2004-08 : Surge in inflows • Episode II - 2009 (Post-Lehman), 2011 (Post US downgrade) and 2013 (proposed QE tapering) – experienced sudden stops and reversal Broad principles of Capital Account Management 1) Preference hierarchy – Nature of flows • • • • Equity over Debt FDI over Portfolio Debt for capital formation Long term over short term – Agents • Non-residents • Residents – Corporates - Financial Sector Individuals 7 Broad principles of Capital Account Management 2) Pursued active capital account management • Monetary policy measures • Prudential measures • Capital control measures • Market measures Broad principles of Capital Account Management 3) Prudential measures • Higher risk weight and prudential limits on exposure to sensitive sectors, such as commercial real estate and capital market • Restrictions on externalization of balance sheets by financial institutions • Credit risk intermediation of overseas exposures not allowed • Unhedged currency exposures of corporates closely monitored and factored in risk assessment and pricing 9 Broad principles of Capital Account Management • Regulatory driven prudential norms on ALM mismatches • Open position in currencies tightly regulated • Conservative regulations on securitization • Capital adequacy norms above the Basel minimum 10 Broad principles of Capital Account Management 4) Capital control measures • Predictable regulatory environment on equity flows • Corporate debt flows, both short-term and longterm are regulated through price, quantity, maturity and end-use • Portfolio debt flows regulated through quantity and maturity • Exchange rate volatility partially managed through tweaking regulations on dynamic hedging, margins and positions 11 Broad principles of Capital Account Management • Debt flows masquerading as equity i.e. instruments with embedded options and advances restricted • FDI in the real estate sector under strict regime • Capital flight is regulated tightly. Recently, the limits on remittances by corporates and individuals have been reduced 12 Broad principles of Capital Account Management 5)Market intervention • Sterilized intervention during too much capital flows- a situation of private benefit and public cost; but indirect cost to be reckoned • Now intervention only to smoothen volatility • Wide menu of hedging instruments • Off-shore trading of INR – implications for exchange rate management • Too much appreciation or depreciation – implications on agents • Special swap window by the Reserve Bank of India 13 Challenges • Low interest rate environment in some jurisdictions and flow of carry trade speculative capital • Need a common approach and international consensus; competitive control regimes 14 Economic Inequality • • • • Priority sector advances Initiatives on financial inclusion and financial literacy JLGs/SHGs empowering women Rural Self Employment Training Institutes – skill building and credit linkage • Guarantee scheme for lending to SMEs • Interest rate subvention to agriculture and exports • Sector specific refinance or apex refinancing institutions 15 Thank You 16