Download From Global Food Security to Daily Food Consumption

Dott.ssa Laura Solaroli
Post-doctoral fellow un Agro-food policy and Economy
Supagro-INRA Montpellier- Università di Bolognae-mail: [email protected]
[email protected]
01/06/2016
Contents
1. General Introduction
2. New Concept of Food Consumption
3. Empirical Example of consumer Behavior
4. Conclusions and Perspectives
•The evolution of FS concept
•Drivers and Trends in FS
The evolution of Food security
concept
Food Security and agriculture at the basis of the
Economic Development theories:
 Population exponential growth = not enough food supply
(Malthus,1798).
 Poor family = total expenditure devoted to the provision of
food (Engel, 1857).
 “Food entitlement” (Sen,1981).
Re-opening of the debate on food security:
 increasing of food demand;
 constraints in food supply;
 issue in both low and high income countries
(Saravia-Matus et.al 2012)
The evolution of Food security
concept- Malthus
The evolution of Food security
concept
1974: World
Food Conference
Adequate food
supply (in quantity)
Increase
productivity
1996: World Food
Summit
1) availability,
2) access,
3) utilization,
4) stability
Natural resources
scarcity
2010: Biodiversity
and Sustainable
Diets Symposium
Respect for the
environment and
natural resources
Guarantee food
security for the
future generations
FS: Multidimensional Concept
 FAO dimensions (1996):
 Availability
 Access
 Utilization
 Stability
• Other interpretations: FAO 2013 (Table)
– Economist:
–
–
–
Affordability,
Availabilty
Quality and safety
7
Drivers and trends in Food
Security
 Food demand and supply -> Modifications
 Factors in food demand:
 Population
 Income, prices,
 Food consumption
 Factors in food supply:
 Technologies and innovation
 Natural resources
 Other factors
 International Trade
8
Drivers and trends in Food Security
Millions
World Demographic trend, (1970-2012)
8000
90
7000
80
70
6000
60
5000
50
4000
40
3000
30
2000
20
1000
10
0
0
1970-75 1976-81 1982-86 1987-92 1993-98 1999-04 2005-10 2011-12
Population (Millions)
High Income Rural population (% )
Low Income Rural population (%)
9
Drivers and trends in Food Security
GDP per capita, PPP evolution in income groups
(constant 2005 US$)
35000
30000
25000
20000
15000
10000
5000
High income
Upper middle income
Lower middle income
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
0
Low income
10
Drivers and trends in Food Security
World GDP per capita, PPP in 2012 (constant
2005 US$)
11
Drivers and trends in Food Security
 World Demographics trends:
 Population push food demand
 Diets are improving even if population is growing (no
Malthus)
 Demographic growth only in certain areas
 GDP, income:
 high income + in the GDP per capita
 Augmenting especially in high income countries, lowincome static trend
 GDP per capita does not take into account income
distribution. (Ex. GINI).
12
Drivers and trends in Food Security
Relation between Living standards and Quantity of
food consumed
Source: Southgate et al. 2011
13
Drivers and trends in Food Security
High and Low Income Arable Land (1970= 100)
120
100
80
60
High income
Low income
40
20
0
14
Drivers and trends in Food Security
 Arable land declined of 50% from 1970.
 diminishing due to lack of land conversed to food production
 food insecurity is not linked to the world capacity to produce
food for two main reasons:


Enough food is produced worldwide to feed all the people in the
world, however, food distribution,
production constraints are and will continue to be important
determinants of food security.
 Consumption chages
 Engel’s Law
 Food diversification
15
Drivers andPercent
trends
in
Food
Security
of Irrigated Land (%)
50.0
45.0
40.0
35.0
30.0
25.0
20.0
15.0
10.0
5.0
0.0
1990-92
1993-95
1996-98
1999-01
2002-04
North Africa
Sub Saharan Africa
Latin America
Developed regions
2005-07
2008-10
Asia
16
Drivers and trends in Food Security
Cereals Imports Ratio 2009 (%)
17
Drivers and trends in Food Security
 Irrigated land:
 Agriculture is consuming about the 70% of the total
global ‘blue water.
 Import ratio:
 The relative price of a country's exports compared to its
imports can be improved through export restrictions.
 The globalisation improved by the falling of the trade
barriers, technological innovation  - transaction costs
and + trade in high geographical distances.
18
Different levels of Food Security:
Macro and Micro
Levels of Food Security:
 Global and National
 Households
Food Security does not concern only poor people and least developed
countries but also developed countries.
Poor households: Necessity to increase food access
Food insecurity exists when people lack access to sufficient amounts of
safe and nutritious food and are therefore not consuming the food
required for normal growth and development and for an active and
healthy life. This is manifested by signs of general undernourishment
or of deficiencies of a variety of nutrients and/or micronutrients. The
prevalence of undernourishment is usually reported as a percentage of
the total population as well as the total number of undernourished in a
country.
19
Old and new Issues of Food
Security
 Food security issues are changing due to the evolution
of the food systems.
 Different aspects have changed the nature of food
security and the issues to deal with.
 Drivers of food security are facing an evolution:
urbanization, globalization , technical changes,
industrialization, enviromental issues.
 Introduction of the respect for the environment
and natural resources issues in the Food security
definition - Sustainable Diets- (FAO, 2010)
20
Old and new Issues of Food
Security
 Moreover at the FAO Summit in 1996 was presented the
last official definition of “food security”: “...all people, at all
times, have physical and economic access to sufficient, safe
and nutritious food to meet their dietary needs and food
preferences for an active healthy life.” It prevails the
attention for the individual dimension, for their
preferences, the access to food, and health.
 Indeed Maxwell D. (1996), proposed different definition on
food security by experts and conferences, as a result of the
complexity of the problem and its multi-dimension.
 The most important mutation in the definition of food
security is its new individual or household dimension and
the new elements of access, sufficiency, security (or
vulnerability) and sustainability (Maxwell, D. 1996).
Old
New
Source:
Maxwell, D. et
22
Slater, 2003
DEFINITION OF SUSTAINABLE DIETS
Sustainable Diets are those diets with low environmental impacts
which contribute to food and nutrition security and to healthy life for
present and future generations. Sustainable diets are protective and
respectful of biodiversity and ecosystems, culturally acceptable,
accessible, economically fair and affordable; nutritionally adequate,
safe and healthy; while optimizing natural and human resources.
Product attributes
 Search claims are those claims that can be accurately
evaluated prior to purchase using prior knowledge, direct
product inspection, reasonable effort, and normal channels
of information acquisition, such as Consumer Reports.
 Experience claims can be accurately evaluated only after
the product has been purchased and used for a period of
time which is relatively short in comparison to the
product's total-usage life.
 Credence claims are those that cannot be accurately
evaluated even after the product is used because of the
consumer's lack of technical expertise or because the cost
of obtaining sufficient accurate information to check the
veracity of the claim is higher than its expected value. Such
claims can be verified by experts.
•Main food consumption models
•New Patterns in food consumption
•Methods to investigate consumer behavior
Models of food consumption
 “Food consumption model’: by the French school
headed by Malassis  unyfing economic, social
and cultural prespectives in the analysis of food
consumption
 Elaboration of three different model of food
consumption: Traditional model , Agro-industrial
model, Satiety model
Models of food Consumption
 The traditional food consumption model is linked to a
society of generalized poverty. Simple system, based on
self-consumption, where one actor predominates: the
producer-consumer. Farm and family are strictly
intertwined, so much so that is possible to deal with them
as a unit: the family farm.
 The market is limited to local exchanges.
 Diets are differentiated by income levels, between rich and
poor.
 Diets of poor people are characterized by foodstuff with low
energy values, mainly vegetables (cereals and tubers).
 Preparation and consumption take place inside the family,
their forms and organization revealing of gender and power
relations.
Models of food Consumption
 Agro-industrial model of food production and
consumption leads to the disappearance of selfconsumption and to the provisioning of industrial
food through the market . food system becomes
more complex agricultural product transformation
activities are appropriated by industry.
 Malassis’s French school refers to the emergence of a
new model, specific to societies at the stage of
satiety characterised by the saturation of energy
intake and the stabilisation of food expenditure over
total expenditure.
New Patterns in food consumption
Popkin’s thesis is that:
“Modern societies seem to be converging on a diet high
in saturated fats, sugar and refined foods and low in
fiber – often termed the ‘Western diet’ – and on
lifestyles characterized by lower levels of activity.
These changes are reflected in nutritional outcomes,
such as changes in average stature, body composition
and morbidity.”
New Patterns in food consumption
People are not unaffected by changes in food system:
 Urbanization has a large impact on food consumption




changes more food is consumed outside the home
Growing demand of livestock
Changing of food preferences
Changes in diets associated with income growth,
changing lifestyles and the pressures of living with a
market-driven retail sector.
Changes in diet  increase of consumtpion of edible oil,
caloric sweeteners and animal source foods  Health
problems
New Patterns in food consumption
 Food safety
 Different perception of risk
 Importance of ethical product
 Respect for the environment
Methods to investigate consumers’ behavior
 D. Maxwell 1999Two major methods have been widely used, and
both are subject to measurement problems.
 1) estimate gross household production and purchases over a period
of time, estimate the growth or depletion of food stocks held over
that period of time, and presume that the food that has come into
the household's possession and "disappeared" has been consumed.
 2) undertake 24-h recalls of food consumption for individual
members of a household, and analyze each type of food mentioned
for caloric content (and sometimes a more complete nutrient
analysis).
 The second method results in more reliable consumption data
and captures intra-household distributional differences which
the first method over- looks completely, it is also subject to a
number of drawbacks: memory lapses, observer bias, respondent
fatigue, a short and possibly unrepresentative recall period, and
such high data collection costs that resources often constrain
analysis to relatively small samples.
Methods to investigate consumers’ behavior
 Important link between attitude and consumer behavior
(Bressoud, 2002)
 Purchase intention its consider as a variable that link
between attitude and behavior -> it is a predictor of
future consumers’ behavior(Kalwani et Silk, 1982).
34
34
Methods to investigate consumers’ behavior
 Experimental economic is a branch of economics that focuses on
individual behavior in a controlled laboratory setting or out in the field.
The aim is to test economic theories through the creation of artificial
markets and the data collected during these experiments.
The Experimental economics has three objectives:
1.
Test the economic theories comparing them to the data obtained in the
experimentation process
2. It is an explorative objective, in the case there is not a theory to test
3. Help the decision-making on new policies or to evaluate the impact of
new regulation
 The Experimental economy is defined as the utilization of the economic
experimentation as a research method in economy.
35
35
Methods to investigate consumers’ behavior
- Willingness to pay (WPT) is used often in experimental economy.
Different methods to calculate the Willingness to pay:
 hypothetical  bias of overestimating the WTP(Ginon et al. 2014).
 non-hypothetical Two most common non-hypothetical methods to test the
WTP: 1) Vickrey auctions(Lusk et al. 2007) 2) BDM mechanism (Becker–
DeGroot–Marschak, 1964) .
 1) The Vickrey auction is a type of sealed-bid auction. Bidders submit written bids
without knowing the bid of the other people in the auction. The highest bidder
wins but the price paid is the second-highest bid. (Lusk et al. 2007).
 2) BDM method participant give their reservation price (the higher price a buyer
is willing to pay for goods or services) and than a random price is drawn from a
distribution. If the extracted random price is les or equal to the reservation price
then the individual receives the object and pays the random price, if the random
price is greater than the reservation price the individual pays nothing and
receives nothing.
36 36
•Qualitative questionnaire
•Experimental Design
•Results
Qualitative Questionnaire
 As mention before, the consumer is interested is the sustainable
consumption, but often they are not well informed on what does it
mean sustainable development and food- sustainability.
 In order to test the sensibility of consumer to the sustainability issue
and his knowledge of the subject we build up an empirical study
through a survey were we were asking people what they were thinking
about if we would say the terms “sustainable development” or “foodsustainability”.
 The first reaction of the majority of the person was an hesitation before
starting to answer. The terms seems to generate some confusion. Some
of the people (the most informed ones) consider sustainability as
practices to respect the environment or food products that are ecofriendly. However they often commented at the end of the answer that
there are too many information on sustainability and this word could
mean anything to them. There is not a clear message to identify the
subject.
Qualitative Questionnaire
Qualitative Questionnaire
Experimental Design
3 Products
5 differents
logos
41
Protocole expérimental
Pour chaque produit
Tache 1
Without info
Tache 2
Environment scale
Tache 3
Environment global note
Tache 4
Environment scale + global note
Tache 5
Social scale
Tache 6
Social global note
Tache 7
Social globale+ échelle
Tache 8
Separated Environment +social scale
Tache 9
Environment + social global note
Tache10
Logo sustainable product
The products photo were proposed in a radonm order
43
Visualisation des taches
Tache 2
Tache 6
Tache 3
Tache 7
Tache 9
44
Tache 4
Tache 5
Tache 8
Tache 10
Advertisement to recrute people
VVous aimez le Foie Gras du sud
Ouest, le Fromage ddee CCoom
mttéé eett llee
VViinn ddee BBoouurrggooggnnee ??
Lieu : Montpellier Supagro, Batiment n. 28,
2 Place Pierre Viala, Montpellier
VVeenneezz nnoouuss eenn ppaarrlleerr !
Si vous êtes intéressés, envoyez un mail à
[email protected]
Ou téléphonez à :
Laura : 0782927711
Participez à notre étude* sur des
produits régionaux
Jean-
Charles :
du 6 au 10 juillet 2015
Chèque cadeau Best Liberté** d’un
montant de 10 € (valable à Leclerc, Géant
Casino, Go Sport, Fnac etc...) offert à
chaque participant.
Durée totale : 1h30.
45
0777758535
*Sans dégustation
Les mesures
Merci de positionner le curseur sur le prix que vous êtes prêt à payer pour cette bouteille.
(2-4 € pour le Comte, 15-30 pour le foie gras, 3-12 pour le vin)
Merci de donner votre degré d’accord avec les propositions suivantes
sachant que 1 correspond à « pas du tout d’accord » et 5 correspond à « tout à fait d’accord ».
46
1
2
3
4
5
J’aime ce produit (Attitude 1)
○
○
○
○
○
Si j’avais besoin d’un vin, il y a de fortes chances
que j’achète celui là (Intention 1)
○
○
○
○
○
J’apprécie ce produit (Attitude 2)
○
○
○
○
○
La prochaine fois que j’ai besoin d’un vin,
j’achèterai certainement celui là (Intention 2)
○
○
○
○
○
Exemple d’Écran
47
Sample
Age
Sex
Pourcentag
e
Fréquence
Valide
Fréquence
Pourcenta
ge
60
37,3
101
62,7
Homme
18-24
27
16,8
102
63,4
32
19,9
161
100,0
25-54
Femme
Plus de 55
Total
161
100,0
Total
Education
Valide
Profession
Fréquence
Pourcenta
ge
2
1,2
Cadre Sup
36
22,4
Profession
Intermédiaire
11
6,8
Fréquenc
e
Pourcenta
ge
8
5,0
BEP-CAP
11
6,8
Bac
35
21,7
Bac+2
15
9,3
Employé
48
29,8
Bac+3
89
55,3
Ouvrier
2
1,2
autre
3
1,9
Retraité
19
11,8
Total
161
100,0
Inactif
43
26,7
Total
161
100,0
Sans
Valide
Commeçant/artisan
48
Results (Wine)
VIN- Ecarts Prix T1(%)
16,00
14,00
12,00
10,00
8,00
6,00
4,00
2,00
0,00
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
T8
T9
T10
4,50
4,00
The task 6is the less valorized
The task 7 (social et 8 social and envt)
are better valorized (+15% du WTP).
The sustainable logo is less valorized (T10)
Attitude is higher than Purchase intention
3,50
3,00
2,50
Attitude
Intention
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
T8
T9
T10
49
Results Comte
COMTE- Ecarts Prix T1 (%)
6,00
5,00
4,00
3,00
2,00
1,00
0,00
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
T8
The task 6 is the less valorized
The task 9 (social and envt)
are better valorized (+5.5% du WTP).
The sustainable logo is less valorized (T10)
Attitude is higher than Purchase intention
T9
T10
4,50
4,00
3,50
3,00
2,50
Attitude
Intention
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
T8
T9
T10
50
Results (foie gras)
Foie Gras- Ecarts Prix T1 (%)
2,50
2,00
1,50
1,00
0,50
0,00
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
T8
T9
T10
4,30
The task 6 is the less valorised
The task 7 (social and 8 social and envt)
are better valorised (+2% du WTP).
The sustainable logo is less valorised (T10)
Attitude is higher than Purchase intention
4,20
4,10
4,00
3,90
Attitude
3,80
Intention
3,70
3,60
3,50
3,40
3,30
T1
T2
T3
T4
T5
T6
T7
T8
T9
T10
51
• Conclusions
•Limits and future perspectives
Conclusions
Food Security has always been a challenging and
multidimensional matter.
Difficult to calculate food security and food
consumption
 Different methods
Changes in consumption models
New issues of food security
Food Insecurity in both poor and rich countries.
Future perspectives
Research aspects
 Development of composite indicators
 Dynamic analysis (time series)
 Risk analysis
Political aspects
 Important to analyse the policy of the countries to build
new strategies
 Technology and infrastructure improvements
 Food – quality and diets improvements
 Implement rural development policy
Tips for a succesfull research in
food security
Remember
 Everybody can critisize you!
 Have a good theoretical basis, and a large
bibliographic review
 You cannot analize all food security, choose a specific
field or a case study
 Have a specific methodology, and Be aware of the
limits of it to defend your research.
55
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




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FAO (1996), World Food Summit Plan of Action, paragraph 1. In: Rome
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United Nations (1975), Report of the World Food Conference, 5-16
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