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Standard presentation format 1st quarter 2016 Agenda Central bank’s objectives and structure Real sector Monetary policy External sector Banking sector Central bank’s objectives and tasks STABILITY OF PRICES SUPPORTING THE GENERAL ECONOMIC POLICIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, WITHOUT PREJUDICE TO ITS PRIMARY OBJECTIVE Management of the international reserves Issuing banknotes and coins Issuing and revoking licenses for banks and bank supervision Regulating, improving and supervising the payment system Maintaining the stability of the country's financial system Performance of operations on behalf of the Republic of Croatia, as provided by law Independence of the CNB Institutional: decisions are reached independently of other institutions’ influence Functional: clear by defined goal and independence in choosing the instruments and measures for achieving that goal Personal: guarantees the protection of the Governor and the Council members from various kinds of pressure, precisely determines the conditions for the appointment and removal from office, and guards against the conflict of interest Financial: revenues and expenditures of the CNB are solely determined by the nature of the monetary and exchange rate policies Structure of the CNB Agenda Central bank’s objectives and structure Real sector Aggregate demand and supply Labour market Prices Fiscal policy Monetary policy External sector Banking sector Real GDP rates of change Croatia Peer countries 8 6 5 5.2 5.6 4.2 5.2 4.1 4.2 4.8 3.9 4 4 3.3 2.1 3 % 0 -0.3 -1.1 -2 -1.7 -4 -0.4 2.5 2 1.7 1.5 -2.2 1.1 1 -6 * The data refer to the first three quarters of 2015. Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology, after 2013 are provisional. More information can be found on www.dzs.hr. Source: CBS. Croatia Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Slovak R. Poland 2015* 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 -10 Hungary 0 -7.4 Czech R. -8 2002 % 3.3 1.6 2 Average annual growth rate, 2003 – 2014 Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology. Sources: Eurostat and CBS. Gross value added structure, in current prices, 2015* Agriculture Industry Construction Trade, hotels and restaurants Information and communication Financial and insurance activites Real estate Professional service activities Public administration and defence Other service activities * The data refer to the first three quarters of 2015. Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology. Source: CBS. Contributions of domestic and net foreign demand to GDP growth 16 percentage points 12 8 4 0 -4 -8 Domestic demand Net foreign demand * The data refer to the first three quarters of 2015. Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology. Source: CBS. GDP 2015* 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 -16 2002 -12 Unemployment rate Croatia ILO unemployment rate, peer countries, 2014 20 25 18 16 20 14 15 % % 12 10 10 8 6 5 4 2 * Registered unemployment rate – the first eleven months of 2015; ILO unemployment rate – the first three quarters of 2015. Note: Since the beginning of 2007 results from the Labour Force Survey have been published in quarterly dynamics. ILO unemployment rate refers to persons aged 15 years and over. Data on ILO unemployment rate for period 2007 – 2014 have been harmonised with the results of the Cenzus of Population, Households and Dwellings in 2011, and is not comparable with data for period 2000 – 2006. Source: CBS. Croatia Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Slovak R. Poland Hungary 2014 2015* 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 ILO unemployment rate 0 Czech R. Registered unemployment rate 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 0 Note: ILO unemployment rate refers to persons aged 15 – 74. Sources: Eurostat and CBS. Nominal and real net wages 25 800 20 700 600 15 500 400 % 5 300 0 200 -5 100 -10 Real grow th rate – left * Last available data is for wages paid for October. Sources: CBS and CNB. Nominal net w age – right 2015* 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1998 1997 1996 0 EUR 10 Average monthly compensation per employee in economy, 2014 2,200 2,000 1,800 1,600 EUR 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Note: Average monthly compensation per employee in economy is calculated as a ratio of total monthly compensation paid to employees and number of employees. Source: Eurostat. Croatia Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Slovak R. Poland Hungary Czech R. 0 Gross value added in industry per person employed 8 6 percentage change 4 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 GVA in industry Employment * The data refer to the first three quarters of 2015. Source: CBS. GVA in industry per person employed 2015* 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 -14 Inflation Croatia Year-on-year inflation rates and components’ contribution to consumer price inflation in Croatia 10 7 9 6 8 Core inflation percentage points 5 4 % 3 2 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 1 0 0 Energy Processed food Services Note: CPI inflation (1996-1998 RPI inflation) and core inflation, average year-on-year rate of change. Source: CBS. 6/15 12/15 12/14 6/14 6/13 12/13 12/12 6/12 12/11 6/11 6/10 12/10 12/09 6/09 6/08 -2 12/08 -1 12/07 2015 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1998 1999 1997 1996 -1 Unprocessed food Industrial non-food without energy Consumer price index (%) Sources: CBS and CNB's calculation. Inflation in Croatia, euroarea and peer countries 3 2 1.4 1 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.2 0 % -0.1 -0.3 -0.7 -1 -0.4 -0.2 -0.7 -1.0 -1.6 -2 2014 * January - November 2015 Note: Average year-on-year rate of change. Inflation is measured by harmonized consumer price index. Sources: CBS and Eurostat. 2015* Croatia Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Slovak R. Poland Hungary Euroarea Czech R. -3 Consolidated general government revenues and expenditures Croatia Peer countries, 2014 60 50 50 40 % of GDP % of GDP 40 30 30 20 20 10 Revenues Expenditures Note: According to ESA 2010 methodology. Sources: Eurostat and CBS. Revenues Expenditures Note: According to ESA 2010 methodology. Sources: Eurostat and CBS. Croatia Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Poland Hungary 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 0 Czech R. 0 Slovak R. 10 Consolidated general government balance Croatia Peer countries, 2014 0 0 -1 -1 % of GDP -2 % of GDP -3 -4 -2 -3 -5 -4 -6 -5 Sources: Eurostat and CBS. Note: According to ESA 2010 methodology. Sources: Eurostat and CBS. Croatia Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Slovak R. Poland 2014 2013 2012 -6 Hungary Net lending/borrowing, ESA 2010 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 -8 Czech R. -7 General government debt Croatia Peer countries, 2014 100 90 90 80 80 70 70 % of GDP 60 % of GDP 60 50 50 40 40 30 30 20 20 10 10 Note: Government guaranteed debt includes other sectors' domestic and external debt guaranteed by central government. Sources: Eurostat and CNB. Sources: Eurostat and CNB. Croatia Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Slovak R. Poland Hungary 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 General government debt including government guaranteed debt 0 Czech R. General government debt 2006 2005 2004 2003 0 Agenda Central bank’s objectives and structure Real sector Monetary policy Central bank’s policy Monetary developments Interest rates External sector Banking sector Foreign exchange interventions and exchange rate 2,800 8.0 2,400 2,000 7.8 1,600 7.6 800 400 7.4 0 -400 EUR/HRK million HRK 1,200 7.2 -800 -1,200 7.0 -1,600 -2,000 6.8 Foreign exchange interventions - left 1/1/16 1/1/15 1/1/14 1/1/13 1/1/12 1/1/11 1/1/10 1/1/09 1/1/08 1/1/07 1/1/06 1/1/05 1/1/04 1/1/03 1/1/02 1/1/01 1/1/00 1/1/99 1/1/98 -2,800 1/1/97 -2,400 6.6 Exchange rate - right Note: EUR/HRK exchange rate before 1999 is calculated as product of DEM/HRK exchange rate and conversion factor (1.95583). Source: CNB. Exchange rate movements before CNB intervention and amount of intervention, 1996 – 2015 EUR/HRK exchange rate, change, % 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.6 -0.8 -3,000 -2,000 -1,000 0 1,000 2,000 3,000 intervention, in million HRK (positive value indicates that CNB buys foreign exchange) Exchange rate of the intervention day relative to exchange rate 4 days prior to intervention (y-axis) and the intervention amount (x-axis). Note: EUR/HRK exchange rate before 1999 is calculated as product of DEM/HRK exchange rate and conversion factor (1.95583). Source: CNB. Creation and withdrawal of reserve money 9 8 7 creation 6 5 billion HRK 4 3 2 1 0 w ithdrawal -1 -2 -3 -4 Reverse repo auctions and lombard loans Q3/15 Q1/15 Q3/14 Q1/14 Q3/13 Q1/13 Q3/12 Q1/12 Q3/11 Q1/11 Q3/10 Q1/10 Q3/09 Q1/09 Q3/08 Q1/08 Q3/07 Q1/07 Q3/06 Q1/06 -5 Foreign exchange transactions of the CNB Note: Foreign exchange transactions include purchases and sales of foreign currency by the CNB with credit institutions, MF, EC and swap agreements. Positive values reflect the purchase of foreign currency. Values for the reverse repo transactions and lombard loans are shown as change in one quarter. Source: CNB. Reserve requirements and minimum f/c liquidity 80 70 70 60 60 50 50 40 40 % 1/15 1/14 1/13 1/12 1/11 1/10 0 1/09 0 1/08 10 1/07 10 1/06 20 1/05 20 1/04 30 1/03 30 1/02 % 80 Reserve requirement Marginal reserve requirement Minimum foreign currency liquidity % of RR in f/c allocated in HRK Note: Shaded areas represent periods when banks' credit growth was regulated by compulsory CNB bills. Source: CNB. Liquidity surplus and overnight interest rate 22 10 20 9 18 8 16 7 14 5 % 10 4 8 3 6 2 2 1 0 0 1/06 5/06 9/06 1/07 5/07 9/07 1/08 5/08 9/08 1/09 5/09 9/09 1/10 5/10 9/10 1/11 5/11 9/11 1/12 5/12 9/12 1/13 5/13 9/13 1/14 5/14 9/14 1/15 5/15 9/15 4 Liquidity surplus (including overnight deposits w ith the CNB) – right Overnight interbank interest rate – left Source: CNB. billion HRK 6 12 Base money M0 70 60 billion HRK 50 40 30 20 10 Other deposits CNB bills on obligatory basis Settlement accounts Currency outside credit institutions Source: CNB. Overnight deposits Statutory reserves in HRK Credit institutions' cash in vaults 6/15 6/14 6/13 6/12 6/11 6/10 6/09 6/08 6/07 6/06 6/05 6/04 6/03 6/02 6/01 6/00 6/99 6/98 6/97 6/96 6/95 6/94 0 1/00 7/00 1/01 7/01 1/02 7/02 1/03 7/03 1/04 7/04 1/05 7/05 1/06 7/06 1/07 7/07 1/08 7/08 1/09 7/09 1/10 7/10 1/11 7/11 1/12 7/12 1/13 7/13 1/14 7/14 1/15 7/15 billion EUR CNB's international reserves and money supply 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 International reserves Source: CNB. Money supply Credit institutions' assets 450 400 350 billion HRK 300 250 200 150 100 50 Source: CNB. Claims on central government Claims on other domestic sectors Foreign assets Reserves and other assets 6/15 6/14 6/13 6/12 6/11 6/10 6/09 6/08 6/07 6/06 6/05 6/04 6/03 6/02 6/01 6/00 6/99 6/98 6/97 6/96 6/95 6/94 0 Placements to other domestic sectors (excluding government) Placements-to-GDP ratio Placements to other domestic sectors (excluding government) 300 100 35 30 250 80 25 billion HRK 200 20 60 % 15 150 % 10 100 40 5 20 0 Placements – left Year-on-year rate of change – right Note: One-off effects substantially decreased the stock of placements and in 2012 they relate to the assumption of shipyards loans by the Ministry of Finance and the transaction of one bank which, aiming to reduce its partly recoverable and irrecoverable placements transferred a portion of its claims to a company indirectly owned by the parent bank. One-off effects in 2013 relate to the bankruptcy of Centar banka, methodological changes in the recording of fees and another transfer of one bank’s recoverable and irrecoverable placements to an affiliated enterprise. The data for the third quarter of 2015 refer to the end of August. Source: CNB. 2013 Sources: Eurostat and CNB. 2014 Romania Slovak R. Lithuania Czech R. Poland Hungary Bulgaria Croatia Estonia -10 Q1/00 Q4/00 Q3/01 Q2/02 Q1/03 Q4/03 Q3/04 Q2/05 Q1/06 Q4/06 Q3/07 Q2/08 Q1/09 Q4/09 Q3/10 Q2/11 Q1/12 Q4/12 Q3/13 Q2/14 Q1/15 Q4/15 0 0 Slovenia -5 Latvia 50 Loans of other monetary financial institutions 50 year-on-year rate of change 40 30 20 10 0 -10 Household loans 1/15 1/14 1/13 1/12 1/11 1/10 1/09 1/08 1/07 1/06 1/05 1/04 1/03 1/02 1/01 1/00 -20 Corporate loans Note: One-off effects substantially decreased the stock of loans and in 2012 they relate to the assumption of shipyards loans by the Ministry of Finance and the transaction of one bank which, aiming to reduce its partly recoverable and irrecoverable placements transferred a portion of its claims to a company indirectly owned by the parent bank. One-off effects in 2013 relate to the bankruptcy of Centar banka, methodological changes in the recording of fees and another transfer of one bank’s recoverable and irrecoverable placements to an affiliated enterprise. Source: CNB. Loans to households - structure 160 140 100 80 60 40 20 Mortgage loans Car loans Other loans Note: The data for the third quarter of 2015 refer to the end of August. Source: CNB. Housing loans Q3/15 Q1/15 Q3/14 Q1/14 Q3/13 Q1/13 Q3/12 Q1/12 Q3/11 Q1/11 Q3/10 Q1/10 Q3/09 Q1/09 Q3/08 Q1/08 Q3/07 Q1/07 Q3/06 Q1/06 Q3/05 Q1/05 Q3/04 0 Q1/04 billion HRK 120 Currency structure of other monetary financial institutions' placements 100 90 80 70 60 % 50 40 30 20 10 EUR CHF HRK Q3/15 Q1/15 Q3/14 Q1/14 Q3/13 Q1/13 Q3/12 Q1/12 Q3/11 Q1/11 Q3/10 Q1/10 Q3/09 Q1/09 Q3/08 Q1/08 Q3/07 Q1/07 Q3/06 Q1/06 Q3/05 Q1/05 Q3/04 Q1/04 Q3/03 Q1/03 Q3/02 Q1/02 0 Other currencies Note: Loans in foreign currency include loans denominated in that currency and loans indexed to that currency. The data for the third quarter of 2015 refer to the end of August. Source: CNB. Broad money (M4) 300 billion HRK 250 200 150 100 50 Bonds, money market instruments and MMFs shares F/c deposits* Kuna deposits 1/15 1/14 1/13 1/12 1/11 1/10 1/09 1/08 1/07 1/06 1/05 1/04 1/03 1/02 1/01 1/00 1/99 1/98 1/97 0 Money supply (M1) * Up to May 2006, kuna deposits with a currency clause were included in kuna deposits, and from June 2006 on, they are included in F/c deposits. Source: CNB. Euroisation 90 85 80 excluding kuna deposits w ith a currency clause 75 70 % 65 60 55 50 45 40 Share of f/c deposits in total savings and time deposits Source: CNB. Share of f/c deposits in M4 6/15 5/14 4/13 3/12 2/11 1/10 12/08 11/07 10/06 9/05 8/04 7/03 6/02 5/01 4/00 3/99 2/98 1/97 35 Average lending interest rates 22 20 18 methodology changed as of 1 January 2011 16 14 % 12 10 8 4 12/99 6/00 12/00 6/01 12/01 6/02 12/02 6/03 12/03 6/04 12/05 6/05 12/05 6/06 12/06 6/07 12/07 6/08 12/08 6/09 12/09 6/10 12/10 6/11 12/11 6/12 12/12 6/13 12/13 6/14 12/14 6/15 6 Short-term corporate loans without a currency clause Short-term household loans without a currency clause Long-term corporate loans with a currency clause Long-term household loans with a currency clause Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014 (http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/hbilt204.pdf). Source: CNB. Average deposit interest rates 12 methodology changed as of 1 January 2011 10 8 % 6 4 0 12/99 6/00 12/00 6/01 12/01 6/02 12/02 6/03 12/03 6/04 12/05 6/05 12/05 6/06 12/06 6/07 12/07 6/08 12/08 6/09 12/09 6/10 12/10 6/11 12/11 6/12 12/12 6/13 12/13 6/14 12/14 6/15 2 Kuna time deposits Kuna sight deposits Foreign currency time deposits Foreign currency sight deposits Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014 (http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/hbilt204.pdf). Source: CNB. Interest rate spread 14 percentage points 12 methodology changed as of 1 January 2002 methodology changed as of 1 January 2011 10 8 6 2 12/99 6/00 12/00 6/01 12/01 6/02 12/02 6/03 12/03 6/04 12/05 6/05 12/05 6/06 12/06 6/07 12/07 6/08 12/08 6/09 12/09 6/10 12/10 6/11 12/11 6/12 12/12 6/13 12/13 6/14 12/14 6/15 4 Kuna loans* – kuna deposits* Total loans – total deposits Kuna loans** – f/c deposits * without a currency clause ** with a currency clause Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014 (http://http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/ebilt204.pdf). Source: CNB. Yield on T-bills and kuna government bond 9.000 8.000 7.000 6.000 5.000 4.000 3.000 2.000 1.000 T-bill – 91 day T-bill - 182 days T-bill - 364 days T-bill - 728 days BND - 5 years BND - 10 years T-bills, bonds - average price in a month. Note: Details about calculation of yield to maturity: Bulletin 210, January 2015. Sources: MoF and ZSE. 9/15 1/15 5/14 9/13 1/13 5/12 9/11 1/11 5/10 9/09 1/09 5/08 9/07 1/07 5/06 9/05 1/05 5/04 9/03 1/03 0.000 Bonds listed on the ZSE Nom inal value (m illions) Nom inal interest rate Nom inal value (m illions) Nom inal interest rate EUR 1,000 5.375% 10 years EUR 25 4.125% HRK 162 6.125% HRK 700 2007 10 years HRK 5,500 6.500% 15.3 years HRK 250 The City of Vinkovci 2007 10 years HRK 5.250% 2009 13 years EUR 10 The City of Osijek 2007 10 years 4.500% Hospitalija trgovina d.d. 2010 7 years EUR 8 The City of Split 2008 9.750% 6.000% Atlantic grupa d.d. 2011 5 years HRK 115 Republic of Croatia 6.750% 5,000 6.750% Erste&Steiermärkische banka d.d. 2011 6 years EUR 80 6.500% EUR 1,000 6.500% Jadran Galenski laboratorij d.o.o. 2011 5 years HRK 140 3.750% 7 years HRK 4,000 6.250% Erste&Steiermärkische banka d.d. 2012 5 years HRK 300 5.875% 2011 5 years HRK 3,500 5.750% Institut IGH d.d. 2012 5 years EUR 10 9.000% Republic of Croatia 2011 11 years EUR 1,000 6.500% Jadrolinija d.d. 2012 5 years EUR 11 6.500% Republic of Croatia 2013 5 years HRK 6,000 5.250% NETA Capital Croatia d.d.* 2013 unspecified HRK 2 8.000% Republic of Croatia 2013 11 years EUR 1,400 5.750% Dalekovod d.d. 2014 15.3 years HRK 16 4.000% Republic of Croatia 2015 10 years HRK 6,000 4.500% Dalekovod d.d. 2014 15.3 years EUR 1 4.000% Republic of Croatia 2015 11 years HRK 6,000 4.250% HP-Hrvatska pošta d.d. 2014 5 years HRK 400 5.125% Year of issue Original m aturity Currency Year of issue Original m aturity Republic of Croatia 2004 15 years The City of Rijeka 2006 Ingra d.d. 2006 10 years Hrvatska elektroprivreda d.d. 2007 10 years Republic of Croatia 4.750% Optima telekom d.d. 2007 42 5.500% Metronet telekomunikacije d.d. HRK 25 5.500% 9 years EUR 8 2010 10 years HRK Republic of Croatia 2010 10 years Republic of Croatia 2010 Republic of Croatia Issuer State Issuer Currency Corporate * With call option. Stock as at 20 January 2016. Source: ZSE. Agenda Central bank’s objectives and structure Real sector Monetary policy External sector Exchange rate Foreign trade Current account External debt FDI Banking sector Exchange rate policy Managed floating Exchange rate is market determined and based on supply and demand Central bank intervenes on the forex market through forex auctions, but it DOES NOT defend any predetermined rate or band Foreign exchange market Kuna is fully convertible No restrictions on repatriation of profits and liquidation of investments Banks freely determine the exchange rate, engage in the foreign exchange operations and conduct international payment transactions Current account deficit and FDI 10 8.8 8 7.1 7.1 6.5 5.9 % of GDP 6 5.2 5.1 4.0 4 2.9 2.2 2 1.1 0.7 Current account deficit -1.0 -0.8 2013 2014 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 -2 2012 0.0 0 FDI liabilities Note: According to BPM6 and ESA 2010 methodology. The FDI liabilities data doesn’t include round tripping. Negative values of current account deficit indicate a surplus on the current account. Source: CNB. Structure of the current account balance 10 0 -5 Goods Source: CNB. Services Primary income Secondary income Balance 2014 2013 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 -15 2012 -10 2000 billion EUR 5 Current account balance by countries, 2014 8 7.0 6 % of GDP 4 2.2 2 1.2 0.6 0.8 0.1 0 -0.5 -2 -2.0 -4 Sources: Eurostat and CNB. Croatia Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Slovak R. Poland Hungary Czech R. -6 6.0 Source: CNB. EUR/HRK USD/HRK - right CHF/HRK - right 1/1/16 1/7/15 1/1/15 1/7/14 1/1/14 1/7/13 1/1/13 1/7/12 1/1/12 1/7/11 1/1/11 1/7/10 1/1/10 1/7/09 1/1/09 1/7/08 1/1/08 1/7/07 1/1/07 1/7/06 1/1/06 1/7/05 1/1/05 CNB midpoint exchange rate 8.5 8.0 7.0 7.5 6.5 6.0 7.0 5.5 6.5 5.0 4.5 4.0 CNB midpoint exchange rate Daily nominal exchange rates HRK vs. EUR, USD and CHF 8.0 7.5 Nominal Real, unit labour costs in total economy Real, unit labour costs in manufacturing index, 2010 = 100 Q3/15 Q1/15 Q3/14 Q1/14 Q3/13 Q1/13 75 Q3/12 75 Q1/12 80 Q3/11 80 Q1/11 85 Q3/10 85 Q1/10 90 Q3/09 90 Q1/09 95 Q3/08 95 Q1/08 100 Q3/07 100 Q1/07 105 Q3/06 105 Q1/06 110 Q3/05 110 Q1/05 index, 2001 = 100 Index of nominal and real effective kuna exchange rate Real, consumer prices Real, producer prices* – right * The real effective exchange rate of the kuna deflated by producer prices is based on the Croatian index of industrial producer prices on the non-domestic market, which is available from January 2010. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refer to October and November. Note: In 2014 CNB revised the effective exchange rates of the kuna by extending the basket of the main trading partner countries and applying time varying weights. The fall of index denotes appreciation of the kuna. Source: CNB. 120 110 110 Czech R. Hungary Poland Romania Croatia Bulgaria Estonia Latvia Lithuania Slovak R. Note: The fall of index denotes real effective appreciation. Data for the fourth quarter of 2015 refer to October and November. Sources: BIS and CNB. Q3/15 Q1/15 Q3/14 Q1/14 Q3/13 Q1/13 Q3/12 Q1/12 Q3/11 Q1/11 Q3/10 Q1/10 Q3/09 Q1/09 Q3/08 Q1/08 Q3/07 Q1/05 Q3/15 Q1/15 Q3/14 Q1/14 Q3/13 Q1/13 Q3/12 Q1/12 Q3/11 Q1/11 Q3/10 Q1/10 Q3/09 Q1/09 Q3/08 Q1/08 Q3/07 Q1/07 70 Q3/06 70 Q1/06 80 Q3/05 80 Q1/07 90 Q3/06 90 100 Q1/06 100 Q3/05 index, 2005 = 100 120 Q1/05 index, 2005 = 100 Index of real effective exchange rate deflated by CPI Slovenia Merchandise trade 2,500 2,000 1,500 million EUR 1,000 500 0 -500 -1,000 Exports (f.o.b.) Note: Seasonally adjusted data. Sources: CBS and CNB. Imports (c.i.f) Balance 1/15 1/14 1/13 1/12 1/11 1/10 1/09 1/08 1/07 1/06 1/05 1/04 1/03 1/02 1/01 1/00 1/99 1/98 -1,500 Gross external debt by debtors 50 45 40 35 billion EUR 30 25 20 15 10 5 General government Croatian National Bank Deposit-taking corporations, except the central bank Other sectors 10/15 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 0 Direct investments Note: According to BPM6 and ESA2010 methodology. In the entire series of data, the CBRD is reclassified from other sectors to the sector general government. Source: CNB. Gross external debt by creditors 50 45 40 billion EUR 35 30 25 20 15 10 Debt securities Source: CNB. Currency and deposits Official creditors 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 0 Private creditors 10/15 5 Estimated future principal and interest payments by debtors 25 billion EUR 20 15 10 5 General government Croatian National Bank Deposit-taking corporations, except the central bank Other sectors Other 2020 2019 2018 2017 2016 2015* 0 Direct investments * Data for 2015 refer to repayments made until end-October 2015 and projected repayments for the rest of 2015. Data doesn't include arrears. Source: CNB. International reserves in EUR and in months of imports of goods and services 9.5 12.9 11.2 11.2 8.5 12.7 14 12 10.4 10.7 10 9.1 8.7 7.4 6.5 6.6 5.3 5.5 8 6.4 5.7 6 3.8 International reserves (in months of imports) Source: CNB. 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 0 2004 2.5 2003 2 2002 3.5 2001 4 2000 4.5 International reserves (in bil. EUR) billion EUR months of imports 9.3 7.5 External debt ratios 300 250 200 150 % 100 Outstanding external debt/GDP Outstanding external debt/Exports of G&S Source: CNB. 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 0 2000 50 External debt service/Exports of goods and services External debt ratios by countries, 2014 Outstanding external debt/Exports of G&S Outstanding external debt/GDP 140 250 233.0 124.2 114.5 120 108.4 200 92.1 100 89.7 162.3 149.7 150 141.7 153.0 71.0 80 127.8 % % 97.6 66.6 63.1 60 100 79.6 40 50 20 Sources: Eurostat, CNB and central banks’ websites. Croatia Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Slovak R. Poland Hungary Czech R. Croatia Romania Bulgaria Slovenia Poland Hungary Czech R. Slovak R. 0 0 FDI, net incurrence of liabilities 4,000 3,651 3,379 3,500 2,896 3,000 million EUR 2,617 2,500 2,279 2,000 1,593 1,434 1,338 1,500 1,124 1,099 1,019 842 1,000 1,136 1,065 1,018 1,044 710 666 511 500 * Preliminary data. Source: CNB. Q1–Q3/15* 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1999 1997 -500 1998 0 FDI, net incurrence of liabilities by country of origin 4,000 3,500 3,000 million EUR 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2004 EU member countries EU 15 European developing countries International financial institutions Other developed countries Other developing countries Other countries** * Preliminary data. ** Refers to unknown countries and total population adjustment Source: CNB. Q1–Q3/15* 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004 2003 2002 2001 2000 1998 1997 -1,000 1999 -500 FDI, net incurrence of liabilities 1993 – Q3/2015* (30,074.9 million EUR) 2004 EU member countries Other countries** 14.6% 0.7% Other developing countries 0.3% EU 15 73.8% Other developed countries 8.8% International financial institutions 0.0% European developing countries 1.7% * Preliminary data. ** Refers to unknown countries and total population adjustment Source: CNB. FDI, net incurrence of liabilities Q1–Q3/2015* (666.1 million EUR) Turkey 2.0% Other countries 15.6% Slovakia 2.2% Poland 2.3% Italy 2.6% Germany 3.1% Belgium 4.3% Slovenia 4.8% Netherlands 7.4% Luxembourg 16.9% * Preliminary data. Source: CNB. United Kingdom 38.7% FDI, net incurrence of liabilities 1993 – Q3/2015* (30,074.9 million EUR) Financial intermediation, except insurance and pension funding Other business activities Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles Real estate activities Post and telecommunications Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of personal and household goods Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products Manufacture of coke, refined petroleum products and nuclear fuel Real estate investments Hotels and restaurants Other activities * Preliminary data. Source: CNB. FDI, net incurrence of liabilities Q1–Q3/2015* (666.1 million EUR) Manufacture of tobacco products Real estate investments Construction Hotels and restaurants Wholesale trade and commission trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles Other business activities Recreational, cultural and sporting activities Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and motorcycles; repair of personal and household goods Real estate activities Manufacture of chemicals and chemical products Other activites * Preliminary data. Source: CNB. Agenda Central bank’s objectives and structure Real sector Monetary policy External sector Banking sector Size, structure and concentration Leverage ratio and capital adequacy Profitability Coverages Structure of loans and deposits by institutional sectors Total assets of the banking system 450 2009 397.9 395.2 2014 378.4 399.9 2013 370.1 2008 400 2012 406.9 391.1 407.3 345.1 350 billion HRK 304.6 300 250 200 150 100 50 Source: CNB. Q3/15 2011 2010 2007 2006 0 Number of banks 40 35 30 25 15 16 16 15 15 17 16 16 16 16 10 10 2 2 2 2013 2014 Q3/15 20 15 10 16 15 16 17 16 13 13 12 2009 Foreign owned banks Source: CNB. 2 2 2 2012 2 2011 2 2010 2 2008 2 2006 0 2007 5 Private domestic banks State owned banks Banking system by ownership 100 90 70 90.8 90.4 90.6 90.9 90.3 90.6 90.1 89.7 90.1 90.3 5.0 4.2 4.9 4.7 4.9 4.4 5.0 4.2 5.4 4.3 4.8 4.5 5.2 4.8 5.1 5.3 4.7 5.2 4.4 5.3 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Q3/15 60 2007 % of total assets 80 50 40 30 20 10 2006 0 Foreign owned banks Source: CNB. Other private domestic banks State owned banks Concentration index share of assets of the 2(4) largest banks in total assets 80 64.8 63.9 64.1 70 66.9 66.4 65.3 65.2 67.8 66.6 66.8 % of total assets 60 50 41.3 40.9 41.6 41.7 42.0 42.3 43.3 43.4 43.5 44.7 40 30 20 Two largest banks Source: CNB. Four largest banks Q3/15 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2007 2006 0 2008 10 Herfindahl – Hirschman index (HHI) 1,440.5 1,423.9 2013 2014 1,277.7 1,361.7 1,479.8 1,427.2 2012 1,366.4 1,296.5 2011 1,400 1,400.6 2010 1,600 1,308.9 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 HHI (Assets) Source: CNB. Q3/15 2009 2008 2007 0 2006 200 Leverage ratio equity capital/total assets 16 13.7 14 13.9 13.8 14.0 14.1 14.0 13.0 13.1 11.5 12 9.7 10 % 8 6 4 2 Source: CNB. Q3/15 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0 Total capital ratio own funds/total exposure to risks 25 21.78 20.89 21.04 19.90 19.55 20 18.78 16.36 16.43 15.16 15 13.98 % 10 5 Source: CNB. Q3/15 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0 ROAA and ROAE 15 12.4 10.9 9.9 10 6.9 6.5 6.4 4.8 5 1.6 1.5 2.8 1.6 1.1 1.1 1.2 0.8 0.2 0.8 % 0 0.5 -1.5 -5 -10 -10.2 ROAA (before tax) Source: CNB. ROAE (after tax) Q3/15 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 -15 5.3 7.9 9.0 10.2 11.6 12.3 12.0 92.1 91.0 89.8 88.4 87.7 88.0 Q3/15 3.3 2014 3.1 2013 3.2 2012 100 2011 Classification of placements and off-balance sheet liabilities of banks 90 80 70 60 % 50 96.8 96.9 96.7 94.7 40 30 20 10 Risk category A Source: CNB. 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0 Risk categories B and C Coverages 80% 70% 60% 55.2% 54.8% 52.4% 51.5% 47.5% 50% 46.6% 43.4% 40.9% 42.8% 43.9% 40% 30% 20% 10% 2.6% 2.5% 2.4% 3.2% 4.1% 4.7% 5.3% 6.3% 7.2% 7.4% Coverage 1 Q3/15 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 2009 2008 2007 2006 0% Coverage 2 Note: Coverage 1 = Total value adjustments and provisions/Total placements and off-balance sheet liabilities Coverage 2 = Value adjustments and provisions/B and C placements and off-balance sheet liabilities Source: CNB. Structure of extended loans (gross) by institutional sectors 30 September 2015 Non-residents 1.3% Households* 43.7% Government units 15.6% Financial institutions 2.4% Enterprises 37.0% * Includes non-profit institutions serving households. Source: CNB. Structure of received deposits by institutional sectors 30 September 2015 Non-residents 11.8% Government units 2.9% Households 60.2% Financial institutions 6.1% Enterprises 17.8% Non-profit institutions 1.2% Source: CNB.