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Standard presentation format
2nd quarter 2017
Agenda
Central bank’s objectives and structure
 Real sector
 Monetary policy
 External sector
 Banking sector

Central bank’s objectives and tasks
STABILITY OF PRICES
 SUPPORTING THE GENERAL ECONOMIC
POLICIES OF THE EUROPEAN UNION, WITHOUT
PREJUDICE TO ITS PRIMARY OBJECTIVE
 Management of the international reserves
 Issuing banknotes and coins
 Issuing and revoking licenses for banks and bank
supervision
 Regulating, improving and supervising the payment system
 Maintaining the stability of the country's financial system
 Performance of operations on behalf of the Republic of
Croatia, as provided by law

Independence of the CNB
Institutional: decisions are reached independently of other
institutions’ influence
 Functional: clear by defined goal and independence in choosing
the instruments and measures for achieving that goal
 Personal: guarantees the protection of the Governor and the
Council members from various kinds of pressure, precisely
determines the conditions for the appointment and removal
from office, and guards against the conflict of interest
 Financial: revenues and expenditures of the CNB are solely
determined by the nature of the monetary and exchange rate
policies

Structure of the CNB
Agenda


Central bank’s objectives and structure
Real sector







Aggregate demand and supply
Labour market
Prices
Fiscal policy
Monetary policy
External sector
Banking sector
Real GDP rates of change
Croatia
Peer countries
8
5.6
5.2
4.1
4.2
4.1
4.8
4
2.9
2.1
3.4
1.6
2
% 3
0
-0.3
-1.1
-2
-4
3.6
2.7
-0.5
1.8
2
-1.7
1.7
-2.2
1.2
-6
1
-8
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Poland
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology, after
2015 are provisional. More information can be found on
www.dzs.hr.
Source: CBS.
Hungary
0
Slovak R.
-7.4
-10
2002
%
3.9
4
Czech R.
6
5
5.2
Average annual growth rate, 2003 – 2016
Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology.
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Gross value added structure,
in current prices, 2016
Agriculture
Industry
Construction
Trade, hotels and restaurants
Information and communication
Financial and insurance activites
Real estate
Professional service activities
Public administration and defence
Other service activities
Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology.
Source: CBS.
Contributions of domestic
and net foreign demand to GDP growth
16
percentage points
12
8
4
0
-4
-8
Domestic demand
Net foreign demand
Note: The data are according to ESA 2010 methodology.
Source: CBS.
GDP
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2002
-16
2003
-12
Unemployment rate
Croatia
ILO unemployment rate,
peer countries, 2016
14
25
12
20
10
15
%
8
%
6
10
4
5
2
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
Hungary
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
ILO unemployment rate
0
Czech R.
Registered unemployment rate
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
Note: Since the beginning of 2007 results from the Labour Force Survey
have been published in quarterly dynamics. ILO unemployment rate refers to Note: ILO unemployment rate refers to persons aged 15 – 74.
persons aged 15 years and over. Data on ILO unemployment rate for period Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
2007 – 2016 have been harmonised with the results of the Cenzus of
Population, Households and Dwellings in 2011, and is not comparable with
data for period 2000 – 2006.
Source: CBS.
Real grow th rate – left
Source: CBS.
Nominal net w age – right
2016
2000
2015
-4
2014
2500
2013
-2
2012
3000
2011
0
2010
3500
2009
2
2008
4000
2007
4
2006
4500
2005
6
2004
5000
2003
8
2002
5500
2001
10
2000
6000
1999
%
12
HRK
Nominal and real net wages
Average monthly compensation
per employee in economy, 2015
2,200
2,000
1,800
1,600
EUR
1,400
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
200
Note: Average monthly compensation per employee in economy is calculated as a ratio of total
monthly compensation paid to employees and number of employees.
Source: Eurostat.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
Hungary
Czech R.
0
Gross value added in industry
per person employed
10
8
percentage change
6
4
2
0
-2
-4
-6
-8
-10
GVA in industry
Source: CBS.
Employment
GVA in industry per person employed
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
-12
Inflation
Croatia
Year-on-year inflation rates and
components’ contribution to
consumer price inflation in Croatia
7
6
6
5
Core inflation
2017
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
Note: CPI inflation (1996-1998 RPI inflation) and core inflation,
average year-on-year rate of change. Data for 2017 refer to JanuaryMarch 2017.
Source: CBS.
Energy
Processed food
Services
6/17
12/17
12/16
6/16
6/15
12/15
12/14
6/14
12/13
6/13
6/12
12/12
12/11
-2
2003
-2
2002
-1
2001
-1
2000
0
1999
0
1998
1
1996
1
1997
2
6/11
2
6/10
3
%
3
12/10
4
4
12/09
percentage points
5
Unprocessed food
Industrial non-food without energy
Consumer price index (%)
Sources: CBS and CNB's calculation.
Inflation in Croatia,
euroarea and peer countries
3
2.7
2.5
2.0
2
1.8
1.7
1.1
1.0
1
0.8
0.7
0.5
0.3
0.2
%
0.0
0.4
0.1
0
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
-0.5
-0.7
-1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.6
-0.8
-1.1
-1.1
2015
2016
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Poland
Hungary
Euroarea
Czech R.
-2
Slovak R.
-1.3
2017
Note: Average year-on-year rate of change.
Inflation is measured by harmonized consumer price index. Data for 2017 refer to January-March 2017.
Sources: Eurostat.
Consolidated general government
revenues and expenditures
Croatia
Peer countries, 2016
50
60
50
40
% of GDP
20
30
20
Expenditures
Note: According to ESA 2010 methodology.
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Revenues
Expenditures
Note: According to ESA 2010 methodology.
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Poland
Hungary
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Revenues
Czech R.
0
0
Slovenia
10
10
Slovak R.
% of GDP
40
30
Consolidated general government balance
Croatia
Peer countries, 2016
0
1.0
0.5
-1
0.0
-2
% of GDP
-0.5
% of GDP
-3
-4
-1.0
-1.5
-2.0
-5
-2.5
-6
-3.0
-7
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Note: According to ESA 2010 methodology.
Sources: Eurostat and CBS.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Poland
Hungary
Czech Rep.
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
Net lending/borrowing, ESA 2010
-4.0
Slovak Rep.
-3.5
-8
General government debt
Croatia
Peer countries, 2016
100
100
90
90
80
80
70
70
% of GDP
% of GDP
60
50
40
60
50
40
30
30
20
20
10
10
Note: Government guaranteed debt includes other sectors' domestic
and external debt guaranteed by central government.
Sources: Eurostat and CNB.
Sources: Eurostat and CNB.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak
Repubic
Poland
Hungary
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
General government debt including government guaranteed debt
0
Czech
Republic
General government debt
2006
2005
2004
2003
0
Agenda



Central bank’s objectives and structure
Real sector
Monetary policy





Central bank’s policy
Monetary developments
Interest rates
External sector
Banking sector
Foreign exchange interventions
and exchange rate
3,600
8.0
3,200
2,800
7.8
2,400
7.6
1,600
1,200
7.4
800
400
0
EUR/HRK
million HRK
2,000
7.2
-400
-800
7.0
-1,200
-1,600
6.8
-2,000
Foreign exchange interventions - left
1/1/17
1/1/16
1/1/15
1/1/14
1/1/13
1/1/12
1/1/11
1/1/10
1/1/09
1/1/08
1/1/07
1/1/06
1/1/05
1/1/04
1/1/03
1/1/02
1/1/01
1/1/00
1/1/99
1/1/98
-2,800
1/1/97
-2,400
6.6
Exchange rate - right
Note: EUR/HRK exchange rate before 1999 is calculated as product of DEM/HRK exchange rate and
conversion factor (1.95583).
Source: CNB.
Exchange rate movements before CNB intervention and
amount of intervention, 1996 – 2016
EUR/HRK exchange rate, change, %
1.0
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
-0.2
-0.4
-0.6
-0.8
-3,000
-2,000
-1,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
intervention, in million HRK
(positive value indicates that CNB buys foreign exchange)
Exchange rate of the intervention day relative to exchange rate 4 days prior to intervention (y-axis) and the intervention
amount (x-axis).
Note: EUR/HRK exchange rate before 1999 is calculated as product of DEM/HRK exchange rate and conversion factor
(1.95583).
Source: CNB.
Creation and withdrawal of reserve money
7
6
5
creation
4
3
billion HRK
2
1
0
-1
-2
w ithdrawal
-3
-4
-5
-6
Regular and structural reverse repo operations and lombard loans
Q1/17
Q3/16
Q1/16
Q3/15
Q1/15
Q3/14
Q1/14
Q3/13
Q1/13
Q3/12
Q1/12
Q3/11
Q1/11
Q3/10
Q1/10
Q3/09
Q1/09
Q3/08
Q1/08
Q3/07
Q1/07
Q3/06
Q1/06
-7
Foreign exchange transactions of the CNB
Note: Foreign exchange transactions include purchases and sales of foreign currency by the CNB with credit
institutions, MF, EC and swap agreements. Positive values reflect the purchase of foreign currency. Values for
the regular and structural reverse repo operations and lombard loans are shown as change in one quarter.
Source: CNB.
Reserve requirements
and minimum f/c liquidity
80
70
70
60
60
50
50
40
40
%
01/17
01/16
01/15
01/14
01/13
01/12
01/11
01/10
0
01/09
0
01/08
10
01/07
10
01/06
20
01/05
20
01/04
30
01/03
30
01/02
%
80
Reserve requirement
Marginal reserve requirement
Minimum foreign currency liquidity
% of RR in f/c allocated in HRK
Note: Shaded areas represent periods when banks' credit growth was regulated by compulsory CNB bills.
Source: CNB.
20
18
18
16
16
14
14
12
12
10
10
8
8
6
6
4
4
2
2
0
0
1/06
5/06
9/06
1/07
5/07
9/07
1/08
5/08
9/08
1/09
5/09
9/09
1/10
5/10
9/10
1/11
5/11
9/11
1/12
5/12
9/12
1/13
5/13
9/13
1/14
5/14
9/14
1/15
5/15
9/15
1/16
5/16
9/16
1/17
%
20
Liquidity surplus (including overnight deposits w ith the CNB) – right
Overnight interbank interest rate – left
Source: CNB.
billion HRK
Liquidity surplus and overnight interest rate
Base money M0
80
70
billion HRK
60
50
40
30
20
10
Other deposits
CNB bills on obligatory basis
Settlement accounts
Currency outside credit institutions
Source: CNB.
Overnight deposits
Statutory reserves in HRK
Credit institutions' cash in vaults
1/17
1/16
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
1/09
1/08
1/07
1/06
1/05
1/04
1/03
1/02
1/01
1/00
1/99
1/98
1/97
1/96
1/95
0
1/00
7/00
1/01
7/01
1/02
7/02
1/03
7/03
1/04
7/04
1/05
7/05
1/06
7/06
1/07
7/07
1/08
7/08
1/09
7/09
1/10
7/10
1/11
7/11
1/12
7/12
1/13
7/13
1/14
7/14
1/15
7/15
1/16
7/16
1/17
billion EUR
CNB's international reserves and money supply
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
International reserves
Source: CNB.
Money supply
Credit institutions' assets
450
400
350
billion HRK
300
250
200
150
100
50
Source: CNB.
Claims on central government
Claims on other domestic sectors
Foreign assets
Reserves and other assets
1/17
1/16
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
1/09
1/08
1/07
1/06
1/05
1/04
1/03
1/02
1/01
1/00
1/99
1/98
1/97
1/96
1/95
0
Placements to other domestic sectors
(excluding government)
Placements-to-GDP ratio
Placements to other domestic sectors
(excluding government)
300
100
35
30
250
80
25
billion HRK
200
20
60
%
15
150
%
10
100
40
5
20
0
Placements – left
Year-on-year rate of change – right
Note: One-off effects substantially decreased the stock of placements
and in 2012 they relate to the assumption of shipyards loans by the
Ministry of Finance and the transaction of one bank which, aiming to
reduce its partly recoverable and irrecoverable placements transferred a
portion of its claims to a company indirectly owned by the parent bank.
One-off effects in 2013 relate to the bankruptcy of Centar banka,
methodological changes in the recording of fees and another transfer of
one bank’s recoverable and irrecoverable placements to an affiliated
enterprise, while in 2015 and 2016 they relate to partial write-off of
loans to households indexed to the Swiss Franc. Data for the first
quarter of 2017 refer to the end of February.
Source: CNB.
2015
2016
Sources: Eurostat, ECB and CNB.
Romania
Slovak R.
Lithuania
Czech R.
Poland
Hungary
Bulgaria
Croatia
Latvia
Q1/17
Q1/16
Q1/15
Q1/14
Q1/13
Q1/12
Q1/11
Q1/10
Q1/09
Q1/08
Q1/07
Q1/06
Q1/05
Q1/04
Q1/03
Q1/02
Q1/01
-10
Q1/00
0
0
Slovenia
-5
Estonia
50
Loans of other monetary financial institutions
50
year-on-year rate of change
40
30
20
10
0
-10
Household loans
1/17
1/16
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
1/09
1/08
1/07
1/06
1/05
1/04
1/03
1/02
1/01
1/00
-20
Corporate loans
Note: One-off effects substantially decreased the stock of loans and in 2012 they relate to the assumption of shipyards loans by the Ministry of
Finance and the transaction of one bank which, aiming to reduce its partly recoverable and irrecoverable placements transferred a portion of its
claims to a company indirectly owned by the parent bank. One-off effects in 2013 relate to the bankruptcy of Centar banka, methodological
changes in the recording of fees and another transfer of one bank’s recoverable and irrecoverable placements to an affiliated enterprise, while in
2015 and 2016 they relate to partial write-off of loans to households indexed to the Swiss Franc.
Source: CNB.
Loans to households - structure
140
120
80
60
40
20
Mortgage loans
Car loans
Other loans
Note: Data for the first quarter of 2017 refer to the end of February.
Source: CNB.
Housing loans
Q1/17
Q3/16
Q1/16
Q3/15
Q1/15
Q3/14
Q1/14
Q3/13
Q1/13
Q3/12
Q1/12
Q3/11
Q1/11
Q3/10
Q1/10
Q3/09
Q1/09
Q3/08
Q1/08
Q3/07
Q1/07
Q3/06
Q1/06
Q3/05
Q1/05
Q3/04
0
Q1/04
billion HRK
100
Currency structure of other monetary
financial institutions' placements
100
90
80
70
60
%
50
40
30
20
10
Q1/02
Q3/02
Q1/03
Q3/03
Q1/04
Q3/04
Q1/05
Q3/05
Q1/06
Q3/06
Q1/07
Q3/07
Q1/08
Q3/08
Q1/09
Q3/09
Q1/10
Q3/10
Q1/11
Q3/11
Q1/12
Q3/12
Q1/13
Q3/13
Q1/14
Q3/14
Q1/15
Q3/15
Q1/16
Q3/16
Q1/17
0
EUR
CHF
HRK
Other currencies
Note: Loans in foreign currency include loans denominated in that currency and loans indexed to that currency.
Data for the first quarter of 2017 refer to the end of February.
Source: CNB.
Broad money (M4)
350
billion HRK
300
250
200
150
100
50
Bonds, money market instruments and MMFs shares
F/c deposits*
Kuna deposits
Money supply (M1)
* Up to May 2006, kuna deposits with a currency clause were included in kuna deposits, and from June 2006
on, they are included in F/c deposits.
Source: CNB.
1/17
1/16
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
1/09
1/08
1/07
1/06
1/05
1/04
1/03
1/02
1/01
1/00
1/99
1/98
1/97
0
Euroisation
90
85
80
excluding kuna deposits
w ith a currency clause
75
70
%
65
60
55
50
Share of f/c deposits in total savings and time deposits
Source: CNB.
Share of f/c deposits in M4
1/17
1/16
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
1/09
1/08
1/07
1/06
1/05
1/04
1/03
1/02
1/01
1/00
1/99
1/98
1/97
45
Average lending interest rates
22
20
methodology changed as of
1 January 2011
18
16
14
%
12
10
8
4
12/99
6/00
12/00
6/01
12/01
6/02
12/02
6/03
12/03
6/04
12/04
6/05
12/05
6/06
12/06
6/07
12/07
6/08
12/08
6/09
12/09
6/10
12/10
6/11
12/11
6/12
12/12
6/13
12/13
6/14
12/14
6/15
12/15
6/16
12/16
6
Short-term corporate loans without a currency clause
Short-term household loans without a currency clause
Long-term corporate loans with a currency clause
Long-term household loans with a currency clause
Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014
(http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/hbilt204.pdf).
Source: CNB.
Average deposit interest rates
12
10
methodology changed as of
1 January 2011
8
%
6
4
0
12/99
6/00
12/00
6/01
12/01
6/02
12/02
6/03
12/03
6/04
12/04
6/05
12/05
6/06
12/06
6/07
12/07
6/08
12/08
6/09
12/09
6/10
12/10
6/11
12/11
6/12
12/12
6/13
12/13
6/14
12/14
6/15
12/15
6/16
12/16
2
Kuna time deposits
Kuna sight deposits
Foreign currency time deposits
Foreign currency sight deposits
Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014
(http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/hbilt204.pdf).
Source: CNB.
Interest rate spread
14
percentage points
12
methodology
changed as of
1 January 2002
methodology
changed as of
1 January 2011
10
8
6
2
12/99
6/00
12/00
6/01
12/01
6/02
12/02
6/03
12/03
6/04
12/04
6/05
12/05
6/06
12/06
6/07
12/07
6/08
12/08
6/09
12/09
6/10
12/10
6/11
12/11
6/12
12/12
6/13
12/13
6/14
12/14
6/15
12/15
6/16
12/16
4
Kuna loans* – kuna deposits*
Total loans – total deposits
Kuna loans** – f/c deposits
* without a currency clause
** with a currency clause
Note: Details about the new interest rate statistics: Bulletin 204, June 2014
(http://http://www.hnb.hr/publikac/bilten/arhiv/bilten-204/ebilt204.pdf).
Source: CNB.
Yield on T-bills and kuna government bond
9.000
8.000
7.000
6.000
5.000
4.000
3.000
2.000
1.000
T-bill – 91 day
T-bill - 182 days
T-bill - 364 days
T-bill - 728 days
BND - 5 years
BND - 10 years
T-bills, bonds - average price in a month.
Note: Details about calculation of yield to maturity: Bulletin 210, January 2015.
Sources: MoF and ZSE.
1/17
1/16
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
1/09
1/08
1/07
1/06
1/05
1/04
1/03
0.000
Bonds listed on the ZSE
Nom inal
value
(m illions)
Nom inal
interest
rate
Nom inal
value
(m illions)
Nom inal
interest
rate
EUR
1,000
5.375%
Hrvatska elektroprivreda d.d.
2007
10 years
10 years
HRK
42
5.500%
Optima telekom d.d.
2007
15.3 years
HRK
700
6.500%
HRK
250
2007
10 years
HRK
25
5.500%
Metronet telekomunikacije d.d.
2009
5.250%
13 years
EUR
10
The City of Split
2008
9 years
EUR
8
6.000%
Erste&Steiermärkische banka d.d.
4.500%
2011
6 years
EUR
80
Republic of Croatia
2010
10 years
HRK
5,000
6.750%
6.500%
Erste&Steiermärkische banka d.d.
2012
5 years
HRK
300
Republic of Croatia
2010
10 years
EUR
1,000
5.875%
6.500%
Institut IGH d.d.
2012
5 years
EUR
10
Republic of Croatia
2010
7 years
HRK
9.000%
4,000
6.250%
Jadrolinija d.d.
2012
5 years
EUR
11
Republic of Croatia
2011
11 years
6.500%
EUR
1,000
6.500%
NETA Capital Croatia d.d.*
2013
unspecified
HRK
2
Republic of Croatia
2013
8.000%
5 years
HRK
6,000
5.250%
Dalekovod d.d.
2014
15.3 years
HRK
16
Republic of Croatia
4.000%
2013
11 years
EUR
1,400
5.750%
Dalekovod d.d.
2014
15.3 years
EUR
1
4.000%
Republic of Croatia
2015
10 years
HRK
6,000
4.500%
HP-Hrvatska pošta d.d.
2014
5 years
HRK
400
5.125%
Republic of Croatia
2015
11 years
HRK
10,000
4.250%
Jadran Galenski laboratorij d.o.o.
2015
5 years
HRK
200
5.813%
Republic of Croatia
2016
5 years
HRK
6,000
2.750%
Atlantic Grupa d.d.
2016
5 years
HRK
200
3.125%
Republic of Croatia
2017
5 years
HRK
3,000
2.250%
Zagrebački holding d.o.o.
2016
7 years
HRK
1,800
3.875%
Republic of Croatia
2017
11 years
HRK
5,500
2.875%
LANIŠTE d.o.o.
2016
15 years
EUR
55
4.500%
2010
7 years
EUR
8
9.750%
Year of
issue
Original
m aturity
Currency
Republic of Croatia
2004
15 years
The City of Vinkovci
2007
The City of Osijek
Issuer
State
Year of
issue
Original
m aturity
Currency
Corporate
Delisted
Republic of Croatia
Issuer
Delisted
2007
* With call option.
Stock as at 14 April 2017.
Source: ZSE.
10 years
HRK
5,500
4.750%
Hospitalija trgovina d.d.
Agenda




Central bank’s objectives and structure
Real sector
Monetary policy
External sector






Exchange rate
Foreign trade
Current account
External debt
FDI
Banking sector
Exchange rate policy



Managed floating
Exchange rate is market determined and based on supply
and demand
Central bank intervenes on the forex market through
forex auctions, but it DOES NOT defend any
predetermined rate or band
Foreign exchange market



Kuna is fully convertible
No restrictions on repatriation of profits and liquidation of
investments
Banks freely determine the exchange rate, engage in the
foreign exchange operations and conduct international
payment transactions
Current and capital account balance and FDI
10
8.7
7.1
8
6.8
5.6
6
5.2
5.0
5.0
4.0
% of GDP
4
2.2
2.3
2
0.9
0.6
0
-0.1
-1.2
-2
-2.2
-4
-3.7
Current and capital account deficit (in % of GDP)
2016
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
-8
2015
-5.5
-6
FDI liabilities
Note: According to BPM6 and ESA 2010 methodology. The FDI liabilities data doesn’t include round tripping.
Negative values of current and capital acount deficit indicate a surplus on the current and capital account.
Source: CNB.
Structure of the current and capital account
balance
15
10
0
-5
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2001
-15
2002
-10
2000
billion EUR
5
Goods
Services
Primary income
Secondary income
Capital transactions
Current and capital account
Source: CNB.
Current and capital account balance by
countries, 2016
8
6.5
6.0
6
% of GDP
5.3
3.7
4
2.3
2
1.3
0.8
0.2
Sources: Eurostat and CNB.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Poland
Hungary
Czech R.
-2
Slovak R.
0
4.0
Source: CNB.
EUR/HRK
USD/HRK
CHF/HRK
1/1/17
1/7/16
1/1/16
1/7/15
1/1/15
1/7/14
1/1/14
1/7/13
1/1/13
1/7/12
1/1/12
1/7/11
1/1/11
1/7/10
1/1/10
1/7/09
1/1/09
1/7/08
1/1/08
1/7/07
1/1/07
1/7/06
1/1/06
1/7/05
1/1/05
CNB midpoint exchange rate
Daily nominal exchange rates
HRK vs. EUR, USD and CHF
8.0
7.5
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
Index of nominal and real
effective kuna exchange rate
130
125
index, 2010 = 100
120
115
110
105
100
95
Nominal
Real, unit labour costs in total economy
Real, unit labour costs in manufacturing
Q3/17
Q1/17
Q3/16
Q1/16
Q3/15
Q1/15
Q3/14
Q1/14
Q3/13
Q1/13
Q3/12
Q1/12
Q3/11
Q1/11
Q3/10
Q1/10
Q3/09
Q1/09
Q3/08
Q1/08
Q3/07
Q1/07
Q3/06
Q1/06
Q3/05
Q1/05
90
Real, consumer prices
Real, producer prices
Note: The real effective exchange rate of the kuna deflated by producer prices is based on the Croatian index of industrial producer
prices on the total market. The unit labour cost (ULC) is defined as the ratio of labour costs to labour productivity (expressed as GDP
per employee). The fall of index denotes appreciation of the kuna. Data for first quarter of 2017. of the kuna deflated by consumer and
producer prices refer to January and February.
Source: CNB.
90
index, 2005 = 100
100
Czech R.
Sources: BIS and CNB.
Hungary
Poland
Romania
Croatia
Q1/2005
Q3/2005
Q1/2006
Q3/2006
Q1/2007
Q3/2007
Q1/2008
Q3/2008
Q1/2009
Q3/2009
Q1/2010
Q3/2010
Q1/2011
Q3/2011
Q1/2012
Q3/2012
Q1/2013
Q3/2013
Q1/2014
Q3/2014
Q1/2015
Q3/2015
Q1/2016
Q3/2016
Q1/2007
Q3/2007
Q1/2005
Q3/2005
Q1/2006
Q3/2006
Q1/2007
Q3/2007
Q1/2008
Q3/2008
Q1/2009
Q3/2009
Q1/2010
Q3/2010
Q1/2011
Q3/2011
Q1/2012
Q3/2012
Q1/2013
Q3/2013
Q1/2014
Q3/2014
Q1/2015
Q3/2015
Q1/2016
Q3/2016
Q1/2007
Q3/2007
index, 2005 = 100
Index of real effective exchange rate
deflated by CPI
120
120
110
110
100
90
80
80
70
70
Bulgaria
Estonia
Latvia
Lithuania
Note: The fall of index denotes real effective appreciation. Data for first quarter of 2017 refer to January and February.
Slovak R.
Slovenia
Merchandise trade
2,500
2,000
1,500
million EUR
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
Exports (f.o.b.)
Note: Seasonally adjusted data.
Sources: CBS and CNB.
Imports (c.i.f)
Balance
1/17
1/16
1/15
1/14
1/13
1/12
1/11
1/10
1/09
1/08
1/07
1/06
1/05
1/04
1/03
1/02
1/01
1/00
1/99
1/98
-1,500
Gross external debt by debtors
50
45
40
billion EUR
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
General government
Croatian National Bank
Deposit-taking corporations, except the central bank
Other sectors
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Direct investments
Note: According to BPM6 and ESA2010 methodology. In the entire series of data, the CBRD is reclassified
from other sectors to the sector general government.
Source: CNB.
Gross external debt by creditors
50
45
40
billion EUR
35
30
25
20
15
10
5
Debt securities
Source: CNB.
Currency and deposits
Official creditors
Private creditors
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
0
Estimated future principal and interest payments
by debtors
16
14
12
billion EUR
10
8
6
4
General government
Croatian National Bank
Deposit-taking corporations, except the central bank
Other sectors
Other
2022
2021
2020
2019
2018
0
2017*
2
Direct investments
* Data for 2017 refer to repayments made until end-January 2017 and projected repayments for the rest of 2017. Data doesn't include arrears.
Source: CNB.
International reserves in EUR and in months
of imports of goods and services
9.5
16
13.7 13.5
12.9 12.7
11.2 11.2
7.5
6.5
8.7
6.6
5.3
4.5
10
9.1
8
6.4
5.7
6
3.8
International reserves (in months of imports)
Source: CNB.
2
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2003
2002
4
2001
2000
2.5
12
10.7
7.4
5.5
3.5
9.3
14
International reserves (in bil. EUR)
billion EUR
10.4
2004
months of imports
8.5
External debt ratios
300
250
200
150
%
100
Outstanding external debt/GDP
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
0
2000
50
External debt service/Exports of goods and services
Outstanding external debt/Exports of G&S
Note: External debt service includes principal payments on bonds, long-term trade credits and longterm loans (excluding liabilities to affiliated enterprises), as well as total interest payments (including
FISIM), without interest payments on direct investment.
Source: CNB.
External debt ratios by countries, 2016
Outstanding external debt/Exports of G&S
Outstanding external debt/GDP
140
200
182.8
121.2
180
120
160
144.1
120
% 100
137.7
131.0
140
129.6
131.7
100
80
97.2
93.2
109.0
91.1
91.4
82.2
75.0
74.9
%
54.5
60
80
40
60
40
20
20
Sources: Eurostat, CNB and central banks’ websites.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Slovak R.
Poland
Hungary
Czech R.
Croatia
Romania
Bulgaria
Slovenia
Poland
Hungary
Czech R.
Slovak R.
0
0
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
4,000
3,655
3,409
3,500
million EUR
3,000
2,618
2,500
2,292
2,265
2,000
1,706
1,593
1,434
1,338
1,500
1,124 1,100
1,000
1,150
1,066
1,044
1,019
842
1,017
737
511
500
192
* Preliminary data.
Source: CNB.
2016*
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
0
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
by country of origin
4,000
3,500
3,000
million EUR
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
2004 EU member countries
EU 15
European developing countries
International financial institutions
Other developed countries
Other developing countries
Other countries**
* Preliminary data.
** Refers to unknown countries and total population adjustment
Source: CNB.
2016*
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1998
1997
-1,000
1999
-500
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
1993 – 2016* (30,767.8 million EUR)
2004 EU member
countries
13.99%
Other countries**
0.59%
Other developing
countries
0.29%
Other developed
countries
8.08%
International financial
institutions
0.00%
European developing
countries
1.98%
* Preliminary data.
** Refers to unknown countries and total population adjustment
Source: CNB.
EU 15
75.06%
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
2016* (1,705.6 million EUR)
2,500
2,000
1,898
1,500
million EUR
1,000
539
500
275
169
87
74
66
59
49
35
152
34
0
-170
-500
-181
-1,000
-1,500
* Preliminary data.
Source: CNB.
Other countries
Austria
Cyprus
Switzerland
Liechtenstein
South Africa
Cyprus
United Kingdom
France
Slovenia
Sweden
Luxembourg
Netherlands
Italy
-2,000
Germany
-1,381
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
1993 – 2016* (30,767.8 million EUR)
Financial service activities, except
insurance and pension funding
Wholesale trade, except of motor
vehicles and motorcycles
Real estate activities
Telecommunications
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
real estate investments
Manufacture of coke and refined
petroleum products
Manufacture of basic pharmaceutical
products and pharmaceutical
preparations
Construction of buildings
Accommodation
Other activities
* Preliminary data.
Source: CNB.
FDI, net incurrence of liabilities
2016* (1,705.6 million EUR)
Financial service activities, except insurance and
pension funding
Real estate activities
real estate investments
Retail trade, except of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
Construction of buildings
Wholesale trade, except of motor vehicles and
motorcycles
Activities auxiliary to financial services and
insurance activities
Telecommunications
Manufacture of tobacco products
Information service activities
Other activites
* Preliminary data.
Source: CNB.
Agenda
Central bank’s objectives and structure
 Real sector
 Monetary policy
 External sector
 Banking sector






Size, structure and concentration
Leverage ratio and capital adequacy
Profitability
Coverages
Structure of loans and deposits by institutional sectors
Total assets of the banking system
399.9
397.9
395.2
393.4
386.8
2014
2015
2016
2009
billion HRK
350
370.1
378.4
2008
400
2013
406.9
391.1
2012
450
345.1
300
250
200
150
100
50
Source: CNB.
2011
2010
2007
0
Number of banks
40
35
30
15
15
17
16
16
20
16
16
10
10
9
2
2
2
Q3 2016
16
2015
16
2014
25
16
15
10
15
16
17
16
13
13
12
2010
Foreign owned banks
Source: CNB.
2
2
2
2013
2
2012
2
2011
2
2009
2
2007
0
2008
5
Private domestic banks
State owned banks
Banking system by ownership
100
90
80
90.4
90.6
90.9
90.3
90.6
90.1
89.7
90.1
90.3
89.9
4.9
4.7
4.9
4.4
5.0
4.2
5.4
4.3
4.8
4.5
5.2
4.8
5.1
5.3
4.7
5.2
4.4
5.3
4.4
5.7
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Q3 2016
60
2008
% of total assets
70
50
40
30
20
10
2007
0
Foreign owned banks
Source: CNB.
Other private domestic banks
State owned banks
Concentration index
share of assets of the 2(4) largest banks in total assets
80
65.2
64.8
63.9
70
66.9
66.4
65.3
66.8
68.5
67.6
66.6
% of total assets
60
50
40.9
41.6
41.7
42.0
42.3
43.3
43.4
43.5
44.7
45.9
40
30
20
Two largest banks
Source: CNB.
Four largest banks
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
0
2007
10
Herfindahl – Hirschman index (HHI)
1,427.2
2012
1,361.7
1,400.6
2011
2008
1,366.4
2010
1,277.7
1,308.9
2007
1,400
2009
1,600
1,440.5
1,423.9
1,464.8
1,496.9
1,200
1,000
800
600
400
HHI (Assets)
Source: CNB.
2016
2015
2014
0
2013
200
Leverage ratio
equity capital/total assets
14.1
14.0
13.4
2015
14.0
2014
12
13.8
2012
13.9
13.7
14
2011
16
13.4
13.0
11.5
10
%
8
6
4
2
Source: CNB.
2016
2013
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
Total capital ratio
own funds/total exposure to risks
25
20.89
21.04
21.78
22.49
20.88
19.55
20
18.78
16.36
16.43
15.16
15
%
10
5
Source: CNB.
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0
ROAA and ROAE
15
10.9
9.9
10
9.6
6.9
6.5
6.4
4.8
5
1.6
1.6
%
1.1
2.8
1.2
1.1
0.8
0.2 0.8
1.6
0.5
0
-1.3
-5
ROAA (before tax)
Source: CNB.
ROAE (after tax)
2016
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
-15
2015
-8.8
-10
7.9
9.0
10.2
11.6
12.3
12.0
9.7
92.1
91.0
89.8
88.4
87.7
88.0
90.3
2014
2015
2016
5.3
2013
3.3
2012
3.1
2011
100
2010
Classification of placements and
off-balance sheet liabilities of banks
90
80
70
60
%
50
96.9
96.7
94.7
40
30
20
10
2009
2008
2007
0
Risk category A
Source: CNB.
Risk categories B and C
Coverages
80%
70%
63.4%
57.5%
60%
52.4%
51.5%
46.6%
50%
47.5%
43.4%
42.8%
43.9%
40.9%
40%
30%
20%
6.3%
10%
2.5%
2.4%
3.2%
4.1%
4.7%
7.2%
7.7%
7.0%
5.3%
Coverage 1
2016
2015
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
0%
Coverage 2
Note:
Coverage 1 = Total value adjustments and provisions/Total placements and off-balance sheet liabilities
Coverage 2 = Value adjustments and provisions/B and C placements and off-balance sheet liabilities
Source: CNB.
Structure of extended loans (gross)
by institutional sectors, ESA 2010
31 December 2016
Non-residents
3.1%
Households*
43.4%
General government
19.5%
Financial corporations
2.1%
Non-financial
corporations
31.9%
* Includes non-profit institutions serving households.
Source: CNB.
Structure of received deposits
by institutional sectors, ESA 2010
31 December 2016
Non-residents
8.2%
General government
3.2%
Households
61.7%
Financial corporations
5.8%
Non-financial
corporations
19.7%
Non-profit institutions
1.3%
Source: CNB.