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WWS 598s / POP 508 – Epidemiology Schedule of Lectures (subject to change) Monday & Wednesday 9:00 - 10:30 a.m, Robertson Room 10 February 2 February 4 February 9 February 11 February 16 February 18 Problem Set 1 Due February 23 February 25 March 2 March 4 Topic 1: Introduction and overview Jamison, D.T. et al (2013). Global health 2035: a world converging within a generation. Lancet 382:1898-1955. http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS01406736(13)62105-4/fulltext Topic 2: Disease transmission and occurrence Kucharski & Edmunds (2014) Case Fatality Rate for Ebola in West Africa Lancet S0140-6736 Topic 3: Measurement of mortality & population health GBD 2013 Mortality and Causes of Death Collaborators (2014) Global, regional, and national age–sex specific all-cause and causespecific mortality for 240 causes of death, 1990–2013: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2013 Lancet Topic 4: Survival analysis Gajendragadkar et al. (2013) The survival time of chocolates on hospital wards: covert observational study British Medical Journal 347:f7198 Topic 5: Randomized clinical trials Adebamowo et al. (2014) Randomised controlled trials for Ebola: practical and ethical issues The Lancet 384 p1423 Shaw (2014) Randomisation is essential in Ebola drug trials The Lancet 384 p1667 Cohen & Kupferschmidt (2014) Ebola vaccine trials raise ethical issues Science 346 p289 Leaf (2013) Do clinical trials work? New York Times Bailey et al. (2007) Male circumcision for HIV prevention in young men in Kisumu, Kenya: a randomised controlled trial 369 643-656 Topic 6: Cohort studies Kaiser (2014) Ambitious children’s study meets disappointing end Science 346 p1441 Hyponnen et al. (2001) Intake of vitamin D and risk of type 1 diabetes: a birth-cohort study. Lancet 358 1500 Guest Lecture: Jessica Bliss – Nutrition and infection Black et al (2013). Maternal and child undernutrition and overweight in low-income and middle-income counties. The Lancet 382, no. 9890 p 427-451. Topic 7: Case control and cross-sectional studies Taubes (2007) Do we really know what makes us healthy? New York Times Foltz et al. (2014). Epidemiologic Investigation of Potential Risk Factors for Nodding Syndrome in Kitgum District, Uganda. Plos One 8 e66419 Topic 8: Measuring risk Lim et al. (2013) A comparative risk assessment of burden of disease and injury attributable to 67 risk factors and risk factor clusters in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010 The Lancet 380 p2224–2260 Adhikari et al. (2008) Smoking-Attributable Mortality, Years of Potential Life Lost, and Productivity Losses --- United States, 2000— 2004 57 p1226-1228 Topic 9: Bias and confounding March 9 Problem Set 2 due March 11 Problem Set 3 due March 14-22 Topic 10: Regression models Agresti and Finlay, Statistical Methods for the Social Sciences, 4th edition. Chapter 15 (“Logistic Regression: Modeling Categorical Responses,” pp. 483-49) Guest Lecture: Hannes Schwandt Causality - influenza and birth outcomes Currie J, Schwandt H (2013) Within-mother analysis of seasonal patterns in health at birth. Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 110: 12265-12270 Spring Recess March 23 -- Revision, catch-up & general discussion session -March 25 March 30 April 1st April 6 Last day to suggest alternate topic for Problem Set 4. April 8 IN-CLASS EXAM [mid-term] Topic 11: Infectious disease dynamics I - The basics Roberts M, Heesterbeek H (1993) Bluff your way in epidemic models. Trends in Microbiology 1(9): 343-8. Topic 11: Infectious disease dynamics II – Demography and Epidemiology Metcalf CJE, Lessler J, Klepac P, Cutts FT, Grenfell BT (2012) Minimum levels of coverage needed for rubella vaccination: impact of local demography, seasonality and population heterogeneity. Epidemiology and Infection 16: 1-12. Topic 11: Infectious disease dynamics III – Modeling for public policy • Metcalf, C.J.E., Lessler, J. & Edmunds, W.J. (2015). Six challenges in policy for modeling. Epidemics Topic 12: Screening Kolata (2009) Panel urges mammograms at 50, not 40 New York Times Mandelblatt et al. 2009. Effects of mammography screening under different screening schedules: model estimates of potential benefits and harms Annals of Internal Medicine 15: 738-747 April 13 Topic 13: The literature Kolata (2008) Searching for Clarity: A Primer on Medical Studies New York Times Ionnadis (2005) Why Most Published Research Findings Are False Plos Medicine 2 e124 April 15 Problem Set 4 April 20 In class presentations – see Problem set 4 for questions April 22 Guest Lecture: TBA April 27 Topic 14 : Population and Health McKee & Scholnikov Understanding the toll of premature death among men in eastern Europe BMJ 323 1051 Topic 15: Social Epidemiology • Farmer (1996). Social Inequalities and Emerging Infectious Disease Emerging Infectious Diseases 2 259-269 • Vitek & Wharton (1998) Diphtheria in the Former Soviet Union: Reemergence of a Pandemic Disease Emerging Infectious Diseases 4 539 April 29 Guest Lecture: Jason Schwartz Ethical issues: Details Grading: The course grades will be determined as follows: in-class exam (30%), final exam (30%), problem sets/group presentation (30%), and class/precept participation (10%). Reading: Please do the reading – before or after the relevant lecture - but sometime during the course. Topics are likely to come up in the exams. Readings are listed in the schedule and also available on Blackboard. Presentation: There will be a presentation on April 15 – I’ve suggested some topics, but if you have a burning desire to address a particular question, please come talk to me about it before April 6th. Precepts: Precepts led by Amy Winter will be held each week. The purpose of the precepts is to present a modest amount of new material, review material from the lectures and basic statistical concepts, go over difficulties encountered in the problem sets, and provide an opportunity for students to ask questions Tentative precept schedule Precept #1: Statistics review (for those who think they need it) – really basic such as what is a 95% CI, hypothesis testing, etc. Precept #2: Discussion on epidemiological data sources and biases Precept #3: Practice question of Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and discussion of RCT’s [Bailey 2007] Precept #4: Problem Set #1 review Precept #5: Discussion of cohort and case-control studies [Foltz, 2014 and Hyppönen, 2001] Precept #6: Problem Set #2 review Precept #7: Problem Set #3 review & Midterm review No precept week of the midterm Precept #8: Discussion of ID dynamics [Metcalf, 2012] Precept #9: Discussion of screening, and practice interpreting regressions Precept #10: Discussion of ethics, and practice interpreting regressions Precept #11: Final exam review