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Current Developments in Economy Dr. V. Aditya Srinivas Insurance Sector (8/6/11)  3 companies have seen 3 CEO change in 8 years. ICICI,Bajaj, Aviva  14 life insurance companies have less than 1 % market share  Out of 23 private companies only 8 have turned profitable  Only ICICI and SBI Life have 10 % market share Insurance  IRDA has increased lock in period from 3 to 5 years for ULIP  Reduction in charges also creating problems  Break Even has increased from 8-9 years to 10-12years Insurance Market Share  ICICI 6.3 %  SBI Life 6.0 %  HDFC life 3.2 %  Bajaj Allianz 2.8 %  Reliance Life 2.4 %  Birla Sunlife 1.7 %  Max New York 1.6 %  Tata AIG 1.10 % FM Meets FII (8/6/11)  Finance Minister had a close door meeting with 30 FIIs  He assured him about long term growth impact of India Indian Economy Challenges(9/6/11)  GDP forecast reduced to 7.8 %  Revenue collection becoming challenge as corporate profitability goes down  Fiscal Deficit target of 4.6% difficult to achieve  Disinvestment target of Rs. 40,000 crore difficult to achieve as stock market in downtrend Interest Rate problem  RBI had since 2010 raised repo and reverse repo rates ten times to 7.5% and 6.5%, respectively, to control high inflation mainly due to high fuel and commodity prices.  Repo is the rate at which banks borrow money from RBI. Reverse repo is the rate at which banks lend to RBI. Direct Tax vs GDP Growth % (9/6/11)  Year  2007-08  2008-09  2009-10  2010-11 GDP 9.3 6.8 8.0 8.5 Direct Taxes 34.7 8.1 14.9 19.3 US Economy Gloomy (9/6/11)  India has invested $ 39 billion in US Treasuries as on March 31, 2011.  US has deficit of $ 1.4 Trillion this fiscal year.  QE 1 US had injected $ 1 Trillion into US Economy  QE 2 US had injected $ 600 billion into US Economy  Unemployment rate at 9.1 % European Zone Problems  International lenders who bailed out Greece last year with a 110 billion euro (USD 160 billion) loan  GDP to shrink by 3.8% this year and start growing in 2012  Greece's economy shrank far more than expected at the start of 2011, signaling a second wave of austerity measures prescribed by the EU and IMF will pile even more pain on a fractious society NIM for PSU Bank (9/6/11)  Year  92-95  05-06  06-07  07-08  08-09 NIM 2.72 2.85 2.55 2.15 2.10  Private sector banks it is as high as 4 to 5% Market Valuation (P.E) (9/6/11)  India Sensex at 14.85  China Sanghai at 12.73  Brazil Boveszpa at 10.04  Russia RTS at 6.74 Mutual Funds Industry  Collection in 2010 in NFO less by 57 % from 2009  Only 40 % of AUM is of Equity base and 60 % is of debt  AUM in 2004 was Rs. 1,50,000 crore which went to Rs. 8,00,000 crore in 2007 but then reduced to 6,00,000 in 2008-09  41 Mutual Funds are there in India currently with more than 1000 schemes IIP (10/6/11)  Index of Industrial production (IIP) for the month of April grew at 4.4% - less as compared to growth of 7.3% in previous month, as per old series. As per new series, which have 45% more items than old series, IIP grew at 6.3%. Indirect Tax Increases (13/6/11)  Exercise duty collection, indication of factory production rose 38.4 % to Rs. 11,500 crores  Revenue from Customs rose 37 % to Rs. 25,176 crores  Service tax mop up was 27.6 % higher at 7,722 crores. Financial Inclusion (13/6/11)  Govt and RBI has target to cover 73000 villages having population of more than 2000 by March 2012.  The target is that each of them should have bank account  Direct cash Subsidy can be transferred to these accounts.  Cost of opening an account and maintaining it is Rs. 65 Financial Inclusion (13/6/11)  Less than 20 % of such accounts is active even after one year of opening.  Currently only 45 % of population has access to bank account  Low ratio of one bank branch per 16000 people QIP Investment Back Fire (14/6/11)  A QIP helps a listed company to rise capital in the domestic market via equity hares, fully and partly convertible debentures to a buyer of is choice.  SEBI instituted the guidelines for this relatively new financing avenue on May 8, 2006 to reduce dependence on foreign capital. Worst Performing QIPs  QIP Date QIP Price  Aksh optifibre Sep 20  Kiri Industry Nov 598  C&C Const Apr 244  Ansal Proper Oct 90 Price 6.7 219 92 41 Best Performing QIP  QIP Date QIP Price  Exide Indus March 108  Tata Motors Oct 764  Shoppers Stop Oct 325  Godrej consu July 345 Price 156 1013 440 438 Inflation Rises (15/6/11)  Inflation rises to 9.06 % from 8.66 % for May 2011  This has again increased the scope for Interest rate rise by RBI  Rise in interest rates slows down the Economy as cost of capital goes up Interest Rates in India  Bank Rate at 6 %  Repo rate is at 8.5 %  Reverse Repo is at 7.5 %  SLR is at 24 %  CRR is at 6 % World Interest Rates  USA 0.25 %  Japan 0 %  Bank of England 1 %  Europe 1.5 %  Australia 2%  China 3.3 %  India average 9 to 10 % China Ups Reserve Ratio by 50 bps (15/6/11)  Inflation in China is at 5.5 % which is 34 months high  It has increase its RRR (Reserve Ratio Requirement) to 21.5 %  China one year lending rate is 6.6% and deposit rate is 3.3%  Hardening of interest rates by China bring down the commodities prices since it is largest consumer of commodities Greece Credit lowest in world (15/6/11)  S & P has lowered the rating of Greece which makes it lowest in the world  It is lower than Pakistan and Ecuador since both these were out of international markets since 2009  Greece was given first bailout package of $ 158 billion Economy finds it tough (16/6/11)  6.3 % IIP in April 2011 compared to 8.8 % in March 2010  Q4 GDP rose only 7.8 % compared with 8.3 % in third quarter  0.4 % Investment Growth in Q4 as against 20 % year earlier  32 % drop in net FDI inflow in 2010  44 % drop in gross FDI inflow in 2010 Broking Industry facing tough times (16/6/11)  Company  India Info line  Edelweiss Capital  Kotak Securities  Indiabulls securities  AdityaBirla Money  Geojit BNP Paribas % chg NP -8.99 1.68 -30.05 -43.86 -166.56 -38.52 Types of PMS (20/6/11)  Fundamental PMS (Multi cap )  Value Investing PMS (long term horizon with small and mid cap stocks)  Quantitative PMS (purely mathematical calculations)  Event Driven PMS (Event base stocks with short term focus)  Mutual Fund PMS (Invest in different schemes of Mutual funds) Gold – Ever Rising Demand (21/6/11)  Gold has given return of 160 % in last 5 years  Nifty has given return of 83 % in last 5 years  Central Banks globally have become net buyers of Gold in 2010 in last 21 years  In 2010, Central Banks bought 76 tonnes of gold Gold – Ever Rising Demand (21/6/11)  In 2011, first 6 months saw Central Banks buying 129 tonnes of gold  In 2005 central banks sold gold worth 674 tonnes  China Forex Reserve has only 1.8 % of its in gold of $ 3 Trillion forex reserve  World average is 11 %  China has to buy 6000 tonnes to reach global average Gold cont ….  Japan gold reserve stands 3.2 % of its total forex reserve of $ 1.14 trillion  India gold reserve is at 8.2 % of $ 300 billion of forex reserve  Supply of gold for last 20 years has increased only by 0.7 % annual rate. Why turnaround in Gold  Over years, Central Banks have had major     portion of their reserves in US dollar Gold is considered as “Store of Wealth” US economy weakening More printing of US dollars leads to depreciation in its value Gold cannot be printed or mined fast, value of currencies is sinking against gold Gold as % of Forex Reserves  Country  Singapore  Taiwan  India  Japan  China Gold Tonnes 127 424 558 765 1054 % Res 2.4 4.7 8.2 3.2 1.6 Gold Supply Tight  South Africa which produced about 1000 tonnes in 1970 now produced less than 200 tonnes in 2010  Very few large gold mines are expected to come up  Over next five years, only seven gold mines that are capable of producing more than 500 kilo ozones ( 1 0z = 31.1 grams) International Fund (22/6/11)  An international fund is a fund that can invest in companies located anywhere outside its investors country of residence  Feeder funds is one that invest through another fund called the master fund. Its usually launched to beef up the asset base of the master fund Performance of International Fund  Funds 1 Year Return  Fidelity Global Real Asset 19.48  DSPBR World Energy 19.19  DWS Global Agri Fund 18.78  DSPBR world Mining 18.41  Birla Commodity Equities 16.97  Mirae Asset China Advantage 14.15  Principal Global Opportunity 13.91 PE Investors Eye India (23/6/11)  Private equity investors are sitting on cash to the tune of $20 billion to enter India  $70-75 bn of private equity (PE) and venture capital investment in India by 2015.  about $22 bn is required for follow-up funding of 660 current PE-funded companies. Then, about 2,000 companies in the IT and IT-enabled services sectors, manufacturing, engineering, construction and healthcare are expected to attract close to $30 bn in new PE and VC investments over the next four years PE Investors Eye India (23/6/11)  The total investment by private equity investors over the last six years is estimated at $50 bn through 1,600 deals  PE investments have grown from $2 bn in 2005 to $19 bn in 2007. Thereafter, investment value fell to around $6.2 bn in 2010, registering a compounded annual growth rate of 25% over the past six years. PE Investors Eye India (23/6/11)  The real estate and property development sector clocked 203 deals worth $13 bn of the total of $50 bn PE investment over the past six years. FCCB Creates problem for Corp India (27/6/11)  Rs. 16000 crore convertible bonds sold by top     500 companies come for repayment by march 2012 Rs.31500 crores worth of bonds due for redemption by March 2013 48% price discount for conversion of Assam company 86% discount to conversion price of RCom 50 % discount to conversion price of Suzlon ULIP Sales fall hurt companies (27/6/11)  LIC new business fall by 8 %  Private life insurers fall by 23 %  ICICI fell by 29 %  HDFC fall by 27 %  Reliance life fell by 52 %  Bajaj fell by 42 % GDP and Capital Investment Correlate (29/6/11)  Year  2005-06  2006-07  2007-08  2008-09  2009-10  2010-1 GDP 9.5 % 9.7 % 9.2% 6.7% 7.4 % 8.8% % Capital Contri 55 56 72 -10 55 40 GDP and Capital Investment Correlate (29/6/11)  Higher GDP Growth requires strong Capital Investments by Corporate sector  Currently due to high interest rates, the capital investment plans have been put on hold by corporate sector NBFC under RBI Scanner (29/6/11)  Around 12630 NBFC are registered with RBI as on June 30, 2010  There are 228 deposit taking NBFC  212 NBFC have CAR of 12 % but RBI wants it to 15 % by March 2012  Banks Credit to NBFC rose 55.7 % in April 2011 from 15 % year ago. China holds Treasury in US (1/7/11)  China holds atleast $ 1.1 trillion investment in US Treasury bills  China accounts for 26 % of total investment in US Treasuries  If china pulls out this investments then interest rates in US could go up fast Young Working Population by 2040 15 to 59 years (1/7/11)  2010  2015  2020  2025  2030  2035  2040 61.8 62.5 63.1 63.5 63.9 63.9 63.4 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 54.6 55.3 55.9 57.2 58.6 60.4 Economy on firm ground (1/7/11)  Core Sector grows 5.4 % in May vs 4.6 % April  8 sector as compared to earlier 6 sectors  Now core sector has 38 % weight age in IIP index as compared to 26 % earlier Indian consumption story to grow 14 % next 3 years (5/7/11)  Consumer durables, automobiles, personal care, food have maximum growth potential in indian markets MNC controls Indian markets  MNC Global Sales %india Rank india  Suzuki $23.6 Billion 23.3 1  Nokia $58.1 Billion 11 1  Unilever $58.7 billion 6.6 1  LG $49.4 billion 5.9 1  Samsung $135.8 billion 2.5 2  Mcdonal $24.1 billion 0.37 1 PE Investment Rise, Exist Lag (9/7/11)  January to June 2011 saw Private Equity deals with $ 5.8 billion  Total deals in this period 211  In 2010 there were 154 deals during same period (37 % rise)  Deal values have increased by 34 % compared to same period in 2010  Infrastructure sector had 23 % highest share of total PE funds flowing in Mutual Sitting on Cash % of AUM (15/7/11)  ICICI Prudential Advisor  ING Optimix Global Commo  Sahara Super 20  Axis Midcap  HSBC Midcap Equity  IDFC Premier Equity 28.8 18.6 17.9 15.4 13.2 12.9  Funds need to keep 5 % of AUM as cash to meet day to day redemptions units US Consumption down (18/7/11)  US Consumption in last 14 quarters have gone      up only 0.5 % This is from 2008 starting Pre 2008 crisis the consumption was 4 % average for last 12 years That means Q3 again in Question mark ? Increase debt limit to $ 14.3 trillion Asian economies have $ 3 trillion in US treasuries. ARCIL Under stress from Large Lenders  Name  ICICI  SBI  IDBI  PNB Rs. Crores 9000 3000 2000 1000  Buying 15 year mortgage assets, overstepping ceiling of 8 year asset Banks aggressive for SIP (22/7/11)  SBI Bank targets 25 lakh SIP till March 2012  Axis Bank targets 5 lakh SIP till March 2012  Overall MF industry from April 2012 to June 2012 had 7 lakh folio closing down  No support from Distributors India in World Trade (22/7/11)  India is among top 20 in exports of goods  India is among top 10 in service exports  Our contribution in world GDP up from 4.6 % in 2000 to 5.4% in 2010  India share in world exports in 2000 was 0.7 % and now in 2010 it is 1.7 % Indian Corporate Results (1/8/11) June quarter  612 companies so far declared results  Sales up 23.5 % vs 18 %  PBDIT up 19.4 % vs 12.5 %  Net Profit 13 % vs 19 %  Interest outgo 19.4 % vs 7.7 %  High interest rates killing Net Profit. US Debt Default (2/8/11)  To raise the current limit of borrowing of $ 14.3 trillion by further $ 2.4 trillion  To cut spending by $ 2.4 trillion in next 10 years  Initial cut spending by $ 917 billion and and another $1.5 trillion by year end  India holds $ 41 billion in Treasury bonds World job cuts (2/8/11)  HSBC to cut 30,000 jobs by 2013. Cost to revenue ratio touched 57.5 % which is more than standard of 48 % to 52 %.  China PMI reduces from 50.7 as compared to 50.9 in June. This index is made by HSBC  India PMI reduces to 53.6 in July from 55.3 in June which is 20 month low Finance Companies to tap bonds from retail investors (2/8/11)  Religare, muthoot and india Infoline to raise Rs. 5000 with average interest of around 12. 5 % Retail Credit Growth (3/8/11)  Retail loan grows at 17 % in June 2011 vs 6.6% in june 2010  Total value Rs. 6,95,000 crores  Home loans account for 3.7 % (Rs. 3,58,000 crores) vs 2 % year ago  Auto loans lowest in 2 years  Maruti – 26 % Hyundai – 11 %  Auto sales leading indicator of demand in the economy Banks in BRIC in Risk  Brazil financial shares have lost as consumer defaults hit 12 month high in june and borrowing cost climbs to 46 %  China bank stocks at lowest level since 2006  Bank of moscow needed the biggest bailout in Russia history last month after racking up 5.4 Billion dollars of unsecured bad loans  China faces risk that 30 % of total loans may go for default Telecom in worst shape (4/8/11)  Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) has fallen 12 % in India from Rs. 216 to Rs. 190  Bharti Airtel made loss for 6th straight quarter  Africa also made loss of Rs. 302 crore Debt as % of GDP (4/8/11)  Russia 9 %  China 17 %  South Korea 29 %  World Average 69 %  India 64 %  Japan 229 %  Greece 152 %  Italy 120 % Ireland 114 % Portugal 100 % US 100 % US Economy Downgrade(12/8/11)  US has been down graded from AAA rating to AA by Standard and Poor which sent shock waves across the globe  France and UK may also lose its AAA rating since the debt there is also very high  Equities market around world lost $ 5.4 trillion since the downgrade US Mess  Unemployment in 2010 9.6 % while in 2011 9.10 %  Inflation CPI 1.6% in 2010 and 3.6 % in 2011  GDP 2.9 % in 2010 and 1.40 % in 2011 Broking firms smell cash in NCD (12/8/11)  Companies like Indiainfoline, Religare and muthoot finance are to raise Rs. 3500 crores  This would fetch brokers commission of Rs. 45 to 50 crores as their fees. Sovereign Wealth Fund(12/8/11)  UAE investment authority $ 627 billion  Norway/Govt Pension fund $512 billion  China/SAFE Investment Co $ 347 billion  China/China Investment Corp $ 332 billion Car sales in China (12/8/11)  1.01 million is number of passenger cars sold in China in July Insurance Penetration  World average life insurance 4.5 %  India average 4 %  Non life penetration only 0.6 % Euro Zone Data (18/8/11)  17.5 % India exports to European Union in 2010 -11  4 % share in FDI inflows from Germany and France in total inflows between April 2000 and May 2011 Real GDP and Fiscal Deficit (Source IMF and year 2010)  Real GDP Fiscal Deficit  World 5% 5.5 %  Euro Area 1.7 6.1  USA 2.8 10.3  Emerging Eco 7.3 3.7  Japan 3.9 9.6  UK 1.3 10.2  India 8.2 6.8 Real GDP and Fiscal Deficit (Source IMF and year 2010)   Ireland  France  Spain  Portugal  Belgium  Germany  Italy  Greece Real GDP -1 % 1.5 -0.1 1.4 2.0 3.5 1.3 -4.5 Fiscal Deficit 32.2 7.1 9.2 7.3 4.6 3.3 4.5 9.6 Primary Deficit (18/8/11)  Ireland 29.7  France 4.8  Spain 7.8  Portugal 4.6  Belgium 1.3  Germany 1.1  Italy 0.2  Greece 3.2 SBI CAR falls (22/8/11)   Tier I  Total 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 9.38 9.45 7.77 14.25 13.39 11.98  Provisioning 8,794  Rs crore  Tier I capital is 8 % 9,155 17,071 Take out Financing (24/8/11)  Take out financing is a procedure under which the loans made by banks to infrastructure firms are sold to other institutions so that banks recover their funds ahead of the payment schedule under the loan agreement.  IIFCL (India Infrastructure Finance Company Limited) has target of Rs. 10,000 crores for Fy 12 Banks in Take out financing in FY 12  Union Bank         Rs. 1500 crores Central Bank Rs. 1300 crores IDBI bank Rs. 600 crores PNB Rs. 180 crores ________________________________ Banks lending to infrastructure sector Power Rs.2,92,342 crores Telecom Rs.94,319 Roads Rs. 99,038 GDP of 34 countries of OECD 24/8/11  Year  Q4 2009  Q1 2010  Q2 2010  Q3 2010  Q4 2010  Q1 2011  Q2 2011 GDP -0.9 2.5 3.3 3.3 3.0 2.4 1.6 Million job but no takers (25/8/11)  Defense 1,88,224  Faculty and Researchers 17,739  Police force 5,30,580  Field Investigators 1,300  Doctor and medical staff 1,78,801  National Rural and Health Mission 1,48,361  Income tax department 16,331 Capital Goods stock Bargain Hunting (25/8/11)  Company  ABB  BHEL  BEML  Bharat Elec  Crompton  L&T  Siemens  Thermax Current PE 145 14 12 14 12 24 32 15 5 year Avg PE 43 29 18 16 20.9 23.6 33.1 32.2 Gross NPA Sector Wise (25/8/11)  Unsecured and student loans  MSME loans  Auto loans  Agri loans  Asset Finance  Home loans  Corporate & Institutional  Loan against security 4.96 4.24 4.01 3.74 3.26 2.23 1.52 0.30 Japan downgraded from Aa2 to Aa3 (25/8/11)  Moody has downgraded Japan economy  Real GDP  June 2011  Mar 2011  Dec 2010  Sept 2010 -1.0 % -1.0 % 2.1 % 5.0 % Japan to fight rising yen (25/8/11)  Govt to release Forex Reserve to Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) for funding to aid exporters  Japan has $ 1.1 trillion in forex reserves  Gold loses its Sheen (26/8/11)  Chicago Mercantile Exchange raised its margin after gold reached $1910 ounce  Minimum cash deposit to trade gold rise 27 % ti $ 9450  Maintenance margin increased to $ 7000 from $ 5500  Shangai gold exchange also raised the margins Countries Contribution in World GDP (%) (29/8/11)  USA  China  Japan  Germany  France  UK  India  Canada 23.1 9.3 8.7 5.2 4.1 3.6 2.7 2.5 Russia Italy Others 2.3 3.3 35.1 LIC and IIFCL to join (29/8/11)  Infrastrcture in 12th five year plan $ 1 trillion     required The propose venture will allow LIC and IIFCL to buy out 40 % of bank loan with each taking 20 % exposure This releases banks fund and removes risk from banks This method is different from take out finance where only IIFCL is involved IIFCL has Rs. 8000 idle cash to buy bank loans RBI opens window for New banks (30/8/11)  Paid up capital Rs. 500 crores  Listing within 2 years  25 % banks branches in rural areas for financial inclusion  No foreign entity/NRI can hold more than 5%  10 year successful business track record  Sound credential and integrity RBI opens window for New banks (30/8/11)  Total foreign holding cannot cross 49 %  Broking and Real estate companies mostly out of race  RBI to have last and final decision KS Oil – Commodity Death (30/8/11)  KS oil market cap Rs. 2600 crore last year now only Rs. 406 crore  Company may become take over target  Started in 1985 by Ramesh Garg from local farm to plantations in South East Asia  Edelwiss sold shares of Garg as he could not pay margin KS Oil – Commodity Death (30/8/11)  Mastard seeds prices went up 19 % from October and December 2009  March 2010 when crop arrived prices crashed 30 % to Rs. 24,400 per tonne. An then fell to Rs. 23,700 per ton. KS Oil – Commodity Death (30/8/11)  March 11 March 10 Ch(%)  Net sales 4681 4091 14.41  PBDIT 534 462 15.52  Tax Provi 65 40 64.44  PAT 176 212 16.67  His ownership has fall from 16 % to 8 % Suzlon Turnaround (30/8/11)  June 2011 it got profit of Rs. 60 crores vs loss of Rs. 900 crores in June 10 quarter  Order book of Rs. 29000 crores  62 % of order book is from RE Power books Suzlon Turnaround (30/8/11)  Suzlon ready to buy 5 % remaining stake in RE Power for Rs. 398 crores  Suzlon gave -27 % return while sensex – 12 %  Total debt at Rs. 12,500 crores  Cash balance of Rs. 3000 crores Usha Throat Recommendations – NBFC Tighter Rules (30/8/11)  Higher capital adquacy norms at 12 %  New NBFC should have Minimum asset size of Rs. 50 crores  It should not be from Real estate and capital market company  In June 2011, banks exposure to NBFC is Rs. 1,69,000 crores which is 50 % of its total lending which is risky Top 10 NBFC (Asset wise Rs. crore) (30/8/11)           Shriram Transport M&M Finance Sundaram Finance Cholamandalam Shriram City Bajaj Finance SREI Infra Manapuram Finance Magma Fincorp First Leasing 24,786 12,165 11,479 9,017 8,539 8,066 7,482 7,577 5,130 1,297 Gold imports surge (5/9/11)  Gold Imports was 458 tonnes in 2009 but increased to 918 tonnes in 2010  Household financial saving as % of GDP was 12.1 % in 2009-10 but decreased to 9.7 % in 2010-2011 Gold Imports double in last five years for India (5/9/11)  Year  2006-07  2007-08  2008-09  2009-10  2010-11 $ billion 14.47 16.60 20.43 28.81 33.95 % of GDP 1.5 1.4 1.6 2.1 2.0 US Unemployment more Serious (7/9/11)  Unemployment in US was 6 % in 2007 when the crisis had started  Currently it is 9.8 % which is more than earlier which is more dangerous Ethanol Production (7/9/11)  Ethanol is produced from Molases which is by product of sugar cane when it is crushed.  Companies want Rs. 35 per litre  Govt willing to pay Rs. 27 per liter  Cost of production was earlier Rs. 20 per litre Indian Investors invest huge abroad (7/9/11)  Corporate investment abroad is $5.5 billion as compared to $ 2.98 billion year ago.  Individuals invested $ 64 million overseas as compared $ 62 million year ago PMI shows clear slow down  Indian PMI falls to 53.8 from 58.2 in August  China PMI falls to 50.6 shows contraction is on way  17 Member EURO zone also PMI at two year low at 51.5 IIP falls (13/9/11) and Inflation soars  IIP data falls from 6.6 % to 3.3% which shows severe slowdown in the economy  Inflation went up to 9.78 % from 9.22% which is again very risky  Both the indicators would show the slowdown in the economy Mantra for Success(9/9/11)  Ambition is a must have, but don’t let it hurt those around you – Adil Zainulbhai MD McKinsey India  There is no need to hide your failure but you do need to flaunt what you have learnt from it – Harsh mariwala MD marico  Intellect is good but combine with HUMILITY and You have unbeatable combination – Nitin Paranjpe CEO HUL Mantra for Success (9/9/11)  Generalist are OK, but leaders do need to have a clearly defined area of extraordinary COMPETENCE – Pramod Bhasin VC Genpact  Think SOCIETY and not just business – Kalpana Morparia CEO JP Morgan India India to topple Japan as 3rd largest economy (20/9/11)  Japan GDP $ 4.31 trillion  India has reached $ 4.06 trillion  This is as per PPP (Purchasing power parity theory) which uses crude measure of purchasing one burger at any place in the world.  In rupee terms India still is only $ 1 trillion economy US to tax Rich persons (20/9/11)  Warren Buffet Income $ 46 million  Tax rate at 17.7 %  His Secretary Income $ 60,000  Tax Rate 30 % SEBI for MF NFO (20/9/11)  For NFO Equity schemes the minimum amount Rs. 10 crores  For non Equity funds, the minimum amount is now Rs. 20 crores Real PE Factor for any firm is People (20/9/11)  People is the only PE factor capable of creating value for itself and unleashing value from the other factor  Key No. 1 Unique value proposition and market competitive total reward package to get best “talent”  Key no 2 Build flexible culture with nonnegotiable ethical values Real PE Factor for any firm is People (20/9/11)  Key No.3 Give customers desired value for money  Key No.4 Short term focus should not eat away long term profits Position of women’s in Corporate world (21/9/11)  Nandeni Sethuraman – Head Marketing Bharti Walmart jointed sep 2011  Geetu Varma Head, food, HUL, Sep 2011  Anjali Mohanty, Head, Global Transaction Banking, Deutsche Bank, Sep 2011  Anupama Ahluwalia, Head, Marketing, Coca Cola India, June 2011 BRIC Statistics (21/9/11)  Country   China  India  Russia  Brazil Current Account Deficit 2010 2011 5.3 4 -2.6 -2.8 4.8 4.5 -2.3 -2.3 Currency Position vs Dollar Dec 2010 to Sep 2011(21/9/11)  Currency  India  Vietnamese Dong  Taiwan Dollar  Hong kong dollar  Japanese Yen  Newzealand Dollar  Australian Dollar Apprec/Deprec -6.2 -6.4 -1.6 -0.3 5.9 5.2 0.6 India Fiscal Deficit worrying (21/9/11)  April July 2011 fiscal deficit is Rs. 2,28,000 crores which is already 55 % of Rs.4,12,000 crores budgeted for year  Last year same period it was Rs.90,900 crores only  FII have withdrawn $ 1.2 Billion in August and in 2011 net investment is only $ 4.4 billion as compared to $21.8 billion last year. Short term rates in BRIC (21/9/11)  Country  China  India  Russia  Brazil Rates (%) 3.22 8.25 8.25 12 Euro Nations debt (26/9/11)  Debt to GDP Ratio (%)  Greece  Germany  France  UK 144.0 78.7 83.5 76.5  Italy debt is higher than the combined of Portugal, Ireland,Spain STT may Cut (27/9/11)  STT introduced in 2004  Earlier was 0.15 % then reduced to 0.125 % on both buyer and seller for delivery base trade  0.025 % for intraday and applicable only to sellers BRICS to take on Developed 5 (3/10/11)  % contribution to world GDP in 1995 of developed countries was 44.6% which is now 31.6 % in 2015 while BRICS increased from 15.8 % to 30.3 % in 2015  BRICS now account for 16 % of global exports – almost 3 folds rise in last 15 years BRICS to take on Developed 5 (3/10/11)  In 1995 % contribution to world exports of developed countries reduced from 40.5 % to 27.8% in 2010 and those of BRICS increased from 6.5 % to 16.3 %  % contribution to Global Portfolio Equity flows in 1995 63.3% reduced to 27.4 % for Developed countries while for BRICS it increased from 5.8 % to 14.6% FDI inflows ($ billion)  Year  2006-07  2007-08  2008-09  2009-10  2010-11  2011-12(April-Aug) $ billion 22.8 34.8 37.8 37.8 27.0 17.4 Indian companies sit on Cash Pile (17/10/11)  Company  Coal India  Reliance Ind.  ONGC  NTPC  SAIL  Tata Steel FY08 20961 4474 25055 15360 13933 4231 FY11 45862 30192 28688 17859 17747 10892 GDP and Inflation (24/10/11)  Governor Time Inflation  Venkitaraman 90-92 12.7  C Rangaranjan92-97 6.6  Bimal Jalan 97-2003 4.7  YV Reddy 2003-08 5.9  D Subbarao 2008 7.2 GDP 3.9 6.3 5.7 8.5 7.8 NFO Euphoria turns into Gloom (All funds launched in 2006 Rs. Crores (24/10/2011)  Fund NFO Collection  Reliance Equity 5790  SBI Blue-chip 2850  UTI leadership 2025  SBI One India 1854  UTI Contra 1145  Tatacapitalbuilder 268  LIC Nomura Vision253 Current AUM 1215 752 667 523 165 109 48 World PMI decreases in October 2011 (2/11/2011)  Country  China  US  UK  India PMI Sep 51.2 51.6 50.8 50.4 PMI Oct 50.4 50.8 47.4 52.0 Power Sector Loans sticky (2/11/2011)  Total lending to sector Rs.4,80,000 crores  Loans at Risk Rs. 56,000 crores  Banks  SBI  ICICI  Axis Bank  PNB  Union Bank Exposure 36,914 37,223 17,110 6,706 11,902 Indian Corporate Earnings down (21/11/2011)  Sales up 14.3 % lowest in 7 quarters  Operating profit up 4 % lowest in last 2 years  Net profit down by 34.9% biggest fall in 8 quarters  Operating margins14 1.% lowest in 10 quarter World In MESS(24/11/2011)  China PMI to 48  US Economy to have 2 % GDP in 2012 as compared to 2.5 % earlier.  Germany banks fail in Bond Auction  Out of $ 8 billion, 6 billion funded by Central bank other banks gave only $ 3 billion  US fails to cut deficit of $ 2.2 trillion Indian Economy Troubled  High inflation around 10 %  Rupee Depreciating 52.18  New Pension scheme has violated investment norms (Corpus of Rs. 9500 crores) of 26 lakh govt employees Real Effective Exchange Rate (REER) (Reading above 100 indicates over valued vice versa  36 basket  April 11 104.94  May 103.03  June 103.82  July 104.94  Aug 102.93  Sep 100.13  Oct 11 NA 6 basket 116.48 115.46 115.21 116.83 114.64 111.46 106.65 Retail loans (7/12/2011)  Retails loans portfolio  ICICI bank 40 %  HDFC bank 50 %  Axis bank 21 %  Axis bank plans to increase to 30 %  Current retail loan book at Rs.29,300 crores Jim O Neill – founder of BRIC word (7/12/2011)  “India should not raise people hope about FDI and then in week say “We are only joking”  “India inability to raise its share of global FDI is very disappointing” Rating of EuroZOne (7/12/2011)  Country          Outlook Austria AAA –ve Solvenia AA -ve France AAA –ve Slovakia A+ -ve Finland AAA-ve Malta A -ve Germany AAA-ve Italy A -ve Netherland AAA –ve Ireland BBB+ -ve Luxemberg AAA –ve Cyprus BBB+ -ve Belgium AA –ve Portugal BBB- -ve Greece Cc -ve Rating below BBB- are considered as JUNK Subsidy Shoots up (8/12/2011)  Fertilizer subsidy to shoot up target by Rs. 40,000 crores  Food Subsidy pegged at Rs.60,753 crores will also overshoot  Total subsidy could be around Rs. 1,00,000 crores which would widen fiscal deficit by 5.7 % of GDP. Global Carbon Emissions rise  Global 5.9 %  China 10.4 %  Brazil 11.6 %  South korea 9.2 %  India 9.4 %  USA 4.0 %  9.14 billion tonnes of total Co2 pumped into air  510 million was extra, largest % rise since 2003  US is world second largest emitter of greenhouse gases after China Trade deficit with China (9/12/2011)  Total Bilateral trade of india with china is $ 63 billion in 2010-2011  India imports from China $ 43 billion  Currently 26 % of total imports from China  Next five years Chinese imports could touch 75 %  Risky for india as we have strained relationship PSU Banks on hiring spree (9/12/2011)  Allahbad Bank 2200  Bank of baroda 4000  Bank of maharashtra 1870  PNB 10500  Uco Bank 2100  Union Bank 10000 Food inflation falls (9/12/2011)  Food inflation at 6.6% from 19.1 on 1.1.2011  Food articles have 14.3 % weightage in wholesale price index Gold Loans soar to Rs.55000 crores (13/12/2011)  Year        Loans against gold (Rs. Crores) FY02 2500 FY07 12000 FY09 25000 FY10 37500 FY11 50000 FY12 55000 Interest rates on gold at 12% to 24 % while personal loans it is 36% Rupee impact on Economic (14/12/2011)  Rupee slides negates 11 % decline in crude prices  Imports $352 billion to get costlier  Government subsidy bill to rise further  Interest cost to go up further with foreign borrowing % change in currency of major countries(14/12/2011)  Country  India  Euro  Japan  Brazil  China  Russia  Malaysia % change vs Dollar -21 % -9 % -1 % -18% + 1% -15% -8% Losses of Sensex & Nifty (13/12/2011)  Sensex -21.5 %  Nifty -24 %  RIL -28.5 %  Infosys -21.5 % Consumption to GDP (12/12/2011)  Consumption to GDP of China is 33 %  Consumption to GDP – USA is 70 %  Consumption to GDP – india is 60 % Foreign Borrowings hurting (Rs crores)  Foreign currency loan total loan  Rel com 20351 34896  IOC 18074 73296  Tata Steel 14464 28716  HPCL 13687 31253  BPCL 10698 24734  NTPC 9334 47461  AbanOffshore 8258 13425 IT sector creates more jobs (26/12/2011)  Company FY06  TCS 111407  Infosys 44658  Wipro 53742  Tata Steel 38182  HDFC Bank 14878  Tata Motors 22349  SBI 198774 FY11 Net add 198614 87207 130820 86162 122385 68643 81251 43069 55752 40874 53151 30802 222933 24159 Services vs manufacturing (26/12/2011)  Only 12% of total jobs are created by manufacturing sector  Proportion of service sector jobs in total headcount rose to 46.5% in FY11 from 41.8% in FY06 Tata Steel Strength (29/12/2011)  Tata steel contributes $ 27 billion to total Tata     of $ 83 billion Tata steel has operations in 26 countries spread across 5 continents 67% of tata steel revenue is international 2005 Tata steel acquired South East Asia based Natsteel 2007 Tata steel acquired Corus worth $ 12.2 billion along with 41000 Non Indian workers BSE NSE cash volume crashes (3/1/2012)  Period 16-31 Dec  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011 Volume 26239 14263 17246 15034 9911 IPO in mess (3/1/2012)  39 firms raised Rs. 14021 crores in 2011  In 2010, firms raised Rs.69,112 crores Borrowing cost rise for G7 (4/1/12) ($ billion)  The maturing debt burden of G7 and BRIC has balloned by $200 billion in 2012  Japan 3000 Brazil 169  US 2783 UK 165  Italy 428 China 121  France 367 India 57  Germany 285 Russia 13  Canada 211 Ageing BRICs to limit world growth to 4.3 % this decade (4/1/12)  46% increase in people aged 65 + in BRIC by 2020  61 Million decrease in age group 15-24 years by 2030 in China  China factory output to be hit hard  BRIC account for 25 % for world GDP Forex losses looms large (5/1/12)  Company Forex loss  Renuka sugar 464  Ranbaxy lab 498  JSW Energy 78  Tata Power 717  Usha martin 120  Essar oil 469 % of PBT 203 150 81 70 70 69 Cash market volumes on BSE and NSE (5/1/12)  Year  2006  2007  2008  2009  2010  2011 BSE 969860 1414723 1324051 1273964 1193205 693317 NSE 1916227 3093928 3188510 3812031 3657521 2762867 Total 2886087 4508705 4512562 5085996 4850726 3456185 Sebi fines Rs.60 lakhs on Ranbaxy Ex-Independent Director for insider trading  Solrex had invested Rs. 200 crores in Orchid Chemicals.  V K kaul and his wife Bala kaul knew this information and purchased shares between March 31,2008 and April 11,2008.  In June 2010, SEBI had fined Rs. 1 crore Manmohan shetty, former MD of Adlabs for selling shares. Govt to come with Auction of shares (5/1/12)  Company  Hindustan Copper  MMTC  HMT  National Fertiliser  RCF  STCI Govt holding 99.59 99.33 98.88 97.64 92.50 91.02 ECB cash averts funding crisis in Europe (6/1/12)  ECB has given banks $636 billion of three year loans  Two year Italian yields are down 50 bps  Belgian notes also down by 22 bps Trading volumes drop 34 % worst in world (6/1/12 Mint)  Country   US  China  Japan  Uk  Canada  France Avg Daily trading (Million shares) 12468 173218 48902 2260 381 160 %ch in last 3 years -26.3 45.7 33.2 5.2 -19.3 11.1 Trading volumes drop 34 % worst in world (6/1/12 Mint)  Country Avg Daily trading  (Million shares)  Germany 539  Brazil 11317  Australia 2523  Switzerland 57  India 872  South Korea 3537 %ch in last 3 years 16.8 -20.2 14.5 -17.6 -34.4 -27.2 Asset class returns (6/1/12) Mint  Nifty -24.62%  Cash 3.79 % (Saving Bank )  Debt 8.24 %  Gold 31.72 % KFA turns NPA (6/1/12) Mint  KFA total debt Rs. 6000 crores  Banks loan includes  SBI Rs. 1457 Crores  IDBI Rs. 727 Crores  PNB Rs. 710 Crores  Bank of India Rs. 575 Crores  Bank of Baroda Rs. 537 crores.  KFA reported net loss Rs. 469 crores for july sept 2011 quarter. US Auto makers post best annual sales since 2008 (6/1/12) (Million units)  Company  GM  Chrysler  Ford  Honda  Toyota  Nissan  Hyundai Sales in US 2.5 1.4 2.1 1.15 1.7 1.04 0.6 % chg YOY 13 26 11 -6.80 -6.70 15 20 Key factors for poor markets  In 2010, FII put in record $ 29 billion  In 2011, FII net sellers to tune of $ 380 million  Sep Jobless rates in EU (9/1/12)  Company  Austria  Germany  Crez Rup  Sweden  UK  Italy  France % unemployment 4.0 5.5 6.7 7.4 8.3 8.6 9.8 Jobless rates in EU (9/1/12)  Company  Poland  Hungary  Ireland  Greece  Spain % unemployment 10.0 10.7 14.6 18.8 22.9 US Economy improving (9/1/12)  US share in global exports rising from low of 8 % in 2008.  FDI inflow in US have picked and are currently 1.5 % of US GDP compared to mere 0.5 % share in 2002  US current account deficit has reduced from 7 % of GDP at height of US consumption boom in 2007 to 3 % now. US Economy improving (9/1/12)  For China pay and benefits between 2005 and 2010 rose 19 % annually for average factory worked in China while cost of employing US labour increased by only 4 %.  BCG estimates that by 2015 manufacturing in US will be just as economical as China for many goods made for North America consumers US Economy improving (9/1/12)  US has become self sufficient energy from low of 68 % in 2005 to now 78 % in overall energy requirement  Between 1991 and 2001, greenback appreciated by more than 30% on trade weighted and inflation adjusted basis. Valuation of Stock Exchanges (10/1/12)  Chicago Mercantile Exchange valued at $ 16.30      billion NYSE Euro next is $ 6.8 billion Singapore Exchange valued at $ 6.6 billion Johannesburg Stock is valued at Rand 6.2 billion London stock Exchange valued at 2.2 billion pound NSE $ 3.5 billion but BSE less than $ 1 billion New Investments at 5 year low (11/1/12)  Year Govt Invest Pvt lnvest  2010 7.39 11.49  2011 4.43 6.03  % chg -40.04 -47.79 Total 18.88 10.46 -44.57 %Decline in 2011 vs 2010 (11/1/12)  Approvals % Decline  CCEA 47.62  CCI 59.26  Ports 90.91  Roads 54.05  6 lane highways 30.28  Communication & It 66.67 FCCB Bomb ticking (17/1/12)  Indian corporate have to repay $ 7 billion worth of FCCB on March 2013.  Rcom ($ 925 million)  Orchid chemical ($ 175 million)  JSW Steel ($ 274 million)  Sterling Biotech ($ 250 million) Slowing Economy (17/1/12)  Period  Sep 2010  Dec 2010  March 2011  June 2011  Sep 2011 GDP% 8.9 8.4 7.8 7.7 6.9 Indian will do well (18/1/12)  Real GDP per person change from 2007 to 2012 (forecast) % is that Indian will be better off than their counterparts in Britain, US, France and Japan.  For India the rise is 34 % while for China is 50 % US spends on Credit Cards (18/1/12)  In Nov 2011, Americans spend $ 5.6 billion on Credit Cards Debt  Total credit card debt in the country now stands at $ 798 billion Insurance Claim Settlement (18/1/12)  Company Ratio %  LIC 97.03  HDFC 95.41  Birla 94.66  ICICI 94.61  ING Vysya 90.49  Overall Pvt 86.05  Sector Claim pending % 1.46 0.61 0.35 2.25 5.19 5.01 Non core Biz come to Brokers Aid (18/1/12)  Distribtuion & Wealth Mgt (Rs.Crore)  2007-08  2008-09  2009-10  2010-11 1510 1340 1280 1590 Non core Biz come to Brokers Aid (18/1/12)  Profit from fees basedbusiness(Rs.crore)  2007-08  2008-09  2009-10  2010-11  2011-12E  2012-13E 3070 670 2190 1670 400-450 500-550 UN says India to shine in 2012(18/1/12)(GDP %)  Country 2011 2012 2013  India 7.6 7.7 7.9  China 9.3 8.7 8.5  EU 1.6 0.7 1.7  USA 1.7 1.5 2.0  World 2.8 2.6 3.2  Even in worst case scenario India GDP to be 6.7 in 2012 and 6.9 in 2013 Life Insurance Premium falls first time in decade (18/1/12)  Year  06-07  07-08  08-09  09-10  10-11  11-12 Pre (Rs.Crore) % fall or gain 61354 98.84 78502 27.95 69364 -11.64 81690 17.77 82294 0.74 62428(Apr-Nov) HNI Portfolio (19/1/12)  Asia Pacific reports from Merrill Lynch and Capgemini HNI wealth in india grew by 22% in 2009-10  India HNI population grew from 1.27 lakh to 1.53 lakh HNI Portfolio (19/1/12)  HNI Portfolio  Cash  Equities  Real Estate  Fixed Income % of assets 6 36 23 26  Cash/deposits  Alternative asset 9 Implied volatility & Nifty(19/1/12)  Year  Dec 2008  Jan 09  Dec 09  Jan 10  Dec 10  Jan 11  Dec 11  Jan 12 Nifty 10.3 -5.23 1.54 -6.69 2.91 -10.58 -6.33 7.13 IV -22 1.84 -8.29 10.53 -13.75 37.79 8.35 -17.87 Reliance Buy Back (19/1/12)  SEBI guidelines allows companies to buy back shares upto 10 % of paid up capital and reserves without shareholders approval.  With shareholders approval 25 %  In 2005 RIL announced buy back of Rs. 3000 crores but actually bought only Rs. 150 crre Reliance Buy Back (19/1/12)  Current laws ensure that company spends atleast 25 % of announced offer size that too within 35-45 days  RIL has cash balance of Rs.61490 crores as on Sep 30, 2011 Mutual funds deals (20/1/12)  Natrix Global Asset Mgmt bought 25 % in IDFC MF for 5.5% of its AUM in Dec 2010  Japan Normura bought a stake in LIC MF for about 2.5 %  T Row acquired 26% strategic stake in UTI AMC for 3.6%of AUM in 2010  IDFC bough Stancharts for 5.7 % of AUM in 2009 Mutual funds deals (20/1/12)  Eton Park capital paid 13 % of AUM for 5 % stake in Reliance Mutual fund in 2007  Nippon life Buys 26 % in Reliance capital for Rs. 1450 crore valuing 6.8% of AUM largest ever MF deal by foreign firm AUM of top 5 MF (20/1/12)(Rs.Crores)  Mutual Funds  HDFC mutual fund  Reliance mutual fund  ICICI Prudential  Birla Sun Life  UTI Mutual Fund AUM 88628 82305 69367 60377 57817 Real Estate on Hiring Spree (23/1/12)  985 milion square feet of residential space is due for delivery between 2011 & 2013  In 2008-10 the delivery was only of 522 million square feet.  20% rise in total number of new hiring Kuwait Investment Authority (KIA) gives $ 1 billion to 5 fund houses (23/1/12)  KIA has given $ 1 billion to 5 local Mutual funds in India  Birla Sun Life Mutual Fund  DSP Black Rock  ICICI Prudential  Canara Robeco Mutual Fund  Franklin Templeton  Each MF has been allocated $ 200 million FII control Sensex(24/1/12)  Country FII $ million  India -358  Taiwan -9074  Japan -323  Korea -8584  Thailand -167  Indonesia 2950  Philipines 1329 % chg index -24.64 -20.61 -17.34 -10.98 -0.72 3.19 4.06 Stocks Responsible for Sensex Crash (24/1/12)  Company Points fall  RIL  LNT  ICICI  SBI  Tata Steel  BHEL  Hindalco -858 -699 -691 -445 -266 -253 -228 %chg FII Holding -0.59 -2.76 -4.49 -5.48 -3.13 -1.76 -3.25 Stocks Responsible for Sensex Crash (24/1/12)  Company Points fall %chg FII Holding  Sterlite Ind -192 -1.79  Tata Motors -188 -0.08  Jindal Steel -143 -2.47  15 stocks accounted for 85 % fall in Sensex. As on Dec 2011 india has 3000 actively traded shares while Korea 1816, Taiwan 824, Thailand 545 and Indonesia 440. Large buyback by Global Energy majors from 2007 to 2010 (24.1.12)  Company  Exxon mobil  Conoco Phillips  Chevron  BP  Shell  BASF  RIL Backbuy($ billion) 100 19 13.5 9.6 7.9 3.5 2.1 Consumption story (30/1/12)(million units)  Particulars Total  TV  2wheeler  Fridge  Washer  Car  PC  AC 122 42.5 39.7 14.2 5.6 5.4 2.8 Urban% 47 51 68 82 73 84 93 Rural% 53 49 32 18 27 16 7 FDI flows rise (30/1/12)  FDI flows from january 2011 to Nov 2011 increased by 25 %  Brazil saw rise of 48 %  Total FDI in india $ 50 billion  FDI created 2.16 lakhs jobs  Technology had maximum 146 projects and growth of 51 % in value of FDI Infra companies had huge debt (30/1/12)  From 2007 to 2011debt increased  GMR 6.7 times  BGR Energy 5.4 times  IVRCL 5.4 times  GVK 3.59 times  Jaypee Infratech 31 times Unemployment at record high in EU (1/2/12)  Country Under 25 age%  Spain 48.7  Greece 47.2  Portugal 30.8  Italy 31.0  Ireland 29.0  France 23.8  UK 22.3  Germany 7.8  Eurozone 10.4 Overall % 22.9 19.2 13.6 8.9 14.5 9.9 8.4 5.5 EU 9.9 CASA Account (1/2/12)  Bank CASA % of total Deposit  IndusInd Bank 26.52  Yes Bank 28  Kotak Bank 28  ICICI 43.6  HDFC 47.7  Axis Bank 42  Bank of India 32.41 Sensex best since 1994 Jan (2/2/12)  January 2012 saw sensex giving return of 11.3 %  FII bought close to Rs. 11000 crores of shares  PMI increased to 57.5 from 54.2 in December 2011 Jan 2012 has good data (7/2/2012)  Rupee gain 7.45 % in Jan highest in 17 years  Sensex up 11.3% in Jan highest in 18 years  RBI cuts CRR from 6 % to 5.5%  Inflation falls to 7.5 % in Dec from 9.1% in November, food inflation in negative Jan 2012 has good consumer durable data (7/2/12)  Fiat panel TV sales up 50%  Tablets sales up 40 %  Smartphones 8 to 9 %  Laptops and Desktops 5-6%  Apparel 10 % PE invest in water business (7/2/2012)  Company PE fund Rs. Crore Invest  Vishwa Infra IFC 26  Pratibha indus Sequoia 3  Waterlife india matrix partner 22  Greywater Tech Nexus venture 9  Vishwa Infra Olympus 240  SMS Paryavaran Aditya Birla 40  Neela Systems Vinod Khosla 64 Airlines to import fuel directly (8/2/2012)  Rs 2500 crores saving for Airlines industry  Direct import would cost 4-5 % less of total amount currently paid  Fuel cost account for 40 % of the total operational cost FII bet on Corporate Governance (9/2/2012)  FII Promoter  IVRCL 37.1 11.2  Ktak bank 20.4 0.0  NCC 42.7 19.5  IIFL 40.1 31.6  IDFC 45.8 0.0  Indiacement 27 25.8 Return in 2012 96.1 56.8 54.4 52.6 51.0 45.5 FII bet on Corporate Governance (9/2/2012)  FII Promoter  LIC Hou 40.1 36.5  Hexaware 41.4 28.2  Indusindbank 34.7 19.5  Dr.Reddy 27.2 25.6  ITC 16.3 0.0 Return in 2012 248.5 147.3 139.7 120.4 94.3 Bharti Airtel Net profit down 22 % (9/2/2012)  Net profit down 22 % to Rs. 1011 crores  ARPU fell 6% from Rs. 199 to Rs. 187  Loss from African operations Rs.260 crores from Rs. 525 crores last year RBI increases Bank rate to 9.5 % (14/2/2012)  RBI has increased bank rate to 9.5 %  Change has been made after 2003  Currently it was 6 %  The rationale it has to be more than Marginal Adjust Facility which is 1 % more than Repo Rate (8.5 %) Interest cost growth lowers (13/2/2012)(Int.Coverage Ratio)  Sector       ICR (times) Sector Infra 1.45 Pharma Retail 2.77 Cement Steel 3.03 Infotech Power 3.82 Auto Real Estate 5.59 FMCG Telecom 6.11 Capital goods 7.94 Overall ICR (times) 8.56 13.49 29.00 33.13 47.80 7.57 Interest cost Growth lower in Dec quarter (13/2/2012)  India Inc Interest expenses grew 42% YOY  Lower than Sep quarter 55 % growth  Due to rates peak out Best 10 year SIP returns (13/2/2012)  Mutual Fund SIP  Reliance Growth  DSPBR Equity  HDFC top 200  Magnum Global  HDFC Equity  Magnum Contra  HDFC Growth 10 year return(%) 26.86 25.48 25.18 24.92 24.89 24.38 23.11 Best 10 year SIP returns (13/2/2012)  Mutual Fund SIP 10 year return(%)  Magnum Multiplier plus 22.91  Franklin India Bluechip 22.10  Franklin India Prima Plus 21.97 SBI back on track (14/2/2012)  Particulars  Net profit  Total Interest income  Total deposits  Net NPA  Gross NPA 2.22% 4.05% Rs crore 3263 27661 10,00,965 Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal steet page 86 feb 2012)  In 2007 Rs. 11250 crores vs Rs.40095 crores in     2012 spend in NREGA Guaranted 100 working days in a year Agricuture wages in last 3 years have gone up by 105 % 46 % of household consuption goes on food High wages, farm labour cost and shortages rise which forces govt to raise procurement price. Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86  Public Money being wasted  Angaluru village in krishna district in AP  1000 families and 800 registered under NREGA  100 days at Rs 100 per day  80000 man days of useful work in a year is impossible in a village Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86  Agricultural wages labour have gone up by 2.5 times  Agriculture becoming unviable  Farmers sell land as one acre bring Rs. 10 to 15 lakhs  Money put in FD gives Rs.130000  But cultivating land gives only Rs. 100000  So no incentive for cultivation Inflation vs NREGA (Dalal street page 86  We are promoting dependency and idleness and destroying work ethic by promoting instead a welfare ethic  The easily obtained money is spend on liquor  Rs. 15000 crore worth of liquor being sold in Andhra Pradesh every year Interesting Data (Dalal street pg 58 Feb 2012  241 million people would be added to working     population between 2010 to 2030 35 Million people are employed directly in textile industry Textile is second to agriculture Textile industry contributes 14 % to Indian industrial production and 4 % to GDP PSU banks have Rs. 10,000 crores exposure to the telecom companies of which Rs. 7500 crores is secured against assets. India Imports from GULF (29/2/2012) (Million Metric tonnes)  Country  Saudi Arabia  Iran  Iraq  UAE  Kuwait  Qatar  Oman 2009-10 27.18 21.19 14.96 11.60 11.79 5.41 5.39 2010-11 27.36 18.49 17.15 14.70 11.49 5.60 5.42 Economy crawls at 6.1% slowest in 3 years (1/3/2012)  In Q3 GDP growth at 6.1%  In last quarter that is Q2 it was 6.9%  Sectors  Agriculture  Manufacturing  Services Q2 3.2 2.7 9.3 Q3 2.7 0.4 8.9 BSE shares rise due to MCX(1/3/2012)  BSE shares now are at Rs. 180  In Dec 2011 they were at Rs. 140  BSE brokers were given 10,000 shares at Rs. 1 each  They were purchased back at Rs. 5200  Then 12:1 bonus was given which took the value to Rs. 400 per share  Book value of one BSE share is Rs. 205 Structured Products (1/3/2012)  Karvy Private Wealth managed Rs. 21,387 crore allotted       to them in 2011 Capital Guarantee 2 to 3 years lock in Case:- Rs. 100, maturity 2 years. Rs 85 invested in FD and Rs. 15 in shares AT 8 % Rs.16 would be earned in 2 years which makes 85 + 16 = Rs. 100 as principal Now Rs. 15 in equities say gives 100 % return then Rs. 30 out of it So total return Rs. 30 + 100 = 130 which means 30% return in 2 years which is fair enough with capital guarantee. Nifty PE cheaper than peers (1/3/2012)  Index Current PE  Japan Nikki 25.43  US Nasdaq 24.18  Korea Kospi 21.63  Taiwan TWSE 19.16  India Nifty 15.14  China Shcomp 12.75  Germany DAX 11.74 FY13 PE 15.04 13.46 8.56 12.99 13.35 8.59 9.59 Nifty PE cheaper than peers (1/3/2012)  Index Current PE  Brazil IBOV 11.47  UK FTSE 11.24  France CAC 10.84  Hong Kong 10.03  Singapore 8.58  Russia RTSI 5.87 FY13 PE 9.41 9.57 9.11 9.86 12.56 5.91 Corporate Bribes in US Rise (12/3/2012)  $ 1 trillion paid in bribes annually to governments officials  78 corporations under investigation in USA  Violation of Foreign Corrupt Practice Act which is 35 years old  Pfizer, Goldmansach, HP,Wal Mart RBI cuts CRR by 75 basis points (9/3/2012)  RBI cuts CRR by 75 basis points.  New CRR is at 4.75 %  It would release Rs. 48000 crores into system.  Earlier CRR cut of 50 basis points had injected Rs.32000 crores  Totally Rs. 80,000 crores MNC Arms valued more than parent (14/3/2012)  Indian PE  Astrazeneca 90.3  Novartis India 15.7  Kennametal India 26.0  Honeywell Auto 24.3  3M India 63.0  Blue Dart 37.8  Oracle Fin Ser 19.7 ROE(%) 49.8 33.8 43.0 28.6 30.1 28.2 25.7 MNC Arms valued more than parent (14/3/2012)  Parent PE  Astrazeneca PLC 6.2  Novartis India AG 14.3  Kennametal India 12.2  Honeywell Int 13.6  3M Co 14.7  Deutsche Post AG 14.4  Oracle Corp 15.7 ROE (%) 43 14.1 15.6 19.3 27.6 27.2 24.2 First SME listed on BSE(14/3/2012)  BCB finance first company to list on BSE SME  It raised Rs 8.85 crores  Issued 35.4 lakh shares  Shares were priced at Rs.25 but it got listed at Rs. 27 (gain of 8%) Govt Borrowing in Fiscal 2012  The Govt had initially targeted borrowing of Rs.4,17,128 crores  Rs. 5,10,000 crores is actual borrowing done IIP Growth surprises in Jan 2012 (13/3/2012)  Month  July 2011  Aug 2011  Sep 2011  Oct 2011  Nov 2011  Dec 2011  Jan 2012 IIP (%) 3.6 3.4 2.5 -5.0 5.9 2.5 6.8 Pharma sector on Tenterhooks(15/3/2012)  Indian pharma market worth Rs. 60,000 crores  15 % growth of industry for last many years  Foreign markets growing single digit  Natco pharma allowed to sell cancer drug at 3 % of Bayer price which is too low  Foreign MNC not happy with allowing manufacturing and selling low cost version of cancer drug at fraction of price charged by patent holder Germany Bayer AG Reduced Poverty numbers (20/3/2012)  In 2005 population 1140 million & in 2010 it is 1225 million  In 2004-05 no of people below poverty line 407.2 million and in 2009-10 it is 354.7 million  Villages see drop from 37% to 30% in 5 years  GDP in 2004-05 7%, 2005-06 9.5%, 2006-07 9.5%, 2007-08 9.7%, 2008-09 6.5%, 2009-10 8.4% HCC on verge of NPA (20/3/2012)  Rs. 8100 crore debt  Rs. 3000 crore loans needs to be restructured  27 lenders including SBI, PNB trying to     persuade HCC to pay Rs. 90 crore interest payment lenders want from HCC by March 31 to maintain its “standard status” Rs.134 crore loss HCC posted in Dec 2011 Rs. 1.5 lakh crore loans likely to be restructured in Indian banking system this fiscal. Lavasa project has also slowed down Inequality increases Gini Coefficient (22/3/2012)  States 2004-05  All India 0.35  Maharashtra 0.35  Gujarat 0.30  Jammu kashmir 0.24  Punjab 0.32  Assam 0.30  Rajasthan 0.30 2009-10 0.37 0.38 0.31 0.31 0.36 0.33 0.32 Inflation Index (22/3/12) Mint  Particulars Weight age  Food, beverages,tobacco 50 %  Fuel & light 9%  Housing 10%  Clothing,bedding,footwear 5%  Miscellaneous 26% Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012) Mint  Year  March 2010  Sep 2010  March 2011  Sep 2011 Int.as % of Net Sales 6.50 8.78 8.01 10.62 Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012) Mint  Year  March 2010  Sep 2010  March 2011  Sep 2011 Int Coverage Ratio 4.85 3.87 3.45 2.80 Real Estate Shaky (22/3/2012) Mint  Year  March 2010  Sep 2010  March 2011  Sep 2011 Debt Equity Ratio 5.31 8.53 9.73 10.10 Mahindra Satyam Deal (22/2/2012)  Strength of Combined Entity  Valuation of Mahindra Satyam $ 1.8 billion  $ 2.4 billion revenue  75000 employees  350 clients  $ 3.1 billion market cap  2 shares of Tech Mahindra shares to be swapped for 17 shares of Mahindra Satyam Mahindra Satyam Deal (Rs.crore) (22/2/2012)  Satyam Tech Mah Combine  Net sales 6105 5332 11437  PBIT 751 777 1529  PAT 444 670 1115  Oper margin 12.3 14.6 13.4  Reserves 4358 3682 8041 RBI Tightens Norms for Gold loan NBFCs (22/3/2012)  RBI has directed that companies having half their assets in gold should have minimum CAR of 12% Tier I by April 2014  Companies cannot lend more than 60% of value of gold jewellery PE firms Big losses on Dalal Street (26/3/2012)  Company Time Price CMP  Punj Lloyd Aug07 275 55  NCC Aug07 202 50  Golandas Aug07 275 75  Welspun Corp June11 225 144  IDFC July10 176 135  Max India Dec 10 183 171 Loss -80% -75% -73% -36% -23% -7% GAAR Scares Market (27/3/2012)  GAAR (General Anti Avoidance Rule)  Aims to tax  FII coming through Mauritius  Participatory Notes (P-Notes)  It may overrule the DTAA (Double Tax Avoidance Treaty) Sovereign Wealth Funds (28/3/2012)            Fund Abudhabi Investment Norway Govt Pension China SAFE Investment Saudi Arabia SAMA China Investment Corp Kuwait Investment Authority HK Monetary Authority Govt of Singapore Temasek Holdings Russia National Welfare fund $ Billion 627 611 568 533 439 296 293 247 157 149 ELSS outperforms traditional tax savers (28/3/2012)  ELSS has given 26 % return in last 10 years and 22 % return in last 3 years  Average inflation in last 10 years is 6.05%  PPF has given 8.10 % in last 10 years  NSC has given 9.10 % in last 10 years BRICS Shining (29/3/2012)  Share of BRICS in world GDP  Year  2000  2010  2016(Est)  Source IMF % share 8.4 18.2 23.8 BRICS Shining (29/3/2012  Countrywise share in world GDP  Country  India  Brazil  China  Russia  South Africa % share 2.6 3.3 9.3 2.4 0.6 BRICS Shining (29/3/2012  BRICS share in Global Exports  2000 It was 6.9%  2010 it was 16.3 %  BRICS share in FDI Attraction  2000 it was 5.3%  2010 it was 17.8% SEBI norms for listing Stock Exchanges (3/4/2012)  Bourses must separate regulatory and business     roles before listing Listing will take place 3 years after SEBI nod SE have to set up Independent Clearing Corporation & transfer 25% of profit to Settlement Guarantee Fund No single investor should hold more than 5 % in SE Exchange, Depository, Insurance cos, banks, public financial institutions to hold up to 15 % US Improving but Europe in mess (3/4/2012)  US Factory employment index rose in March 2012 to 56.1 from 53.2  Country Unemployment  Spain 23.6%  Greece 21%  Portugal 15%  Ireland 14.7%  Austria 4.2% US Back on Track (4/4/2012)  In 2011, US household consumption was $ 10.7 trillion  70 % of GDP of US goes into Household consumption  China size in 2011 was $ 7 trillion  Unemployment rate down at 8.3 % MF Return and their Standard Deviations (9/4/2012)  Funds 1year SD 3year SD 5year SD  Small/Mid -0.65 21 31 28 7.93 32  CNXmidcap-4.09 25 31 30 9.72 35  Large cap -7.28 19 22 25 7.25 29  BSE100 -9.23 21 22 27 6.83 31  Sensex -10.5 20 21 26 5.89 30 Close loss making urban bank branches (9/4/2012)  India has 60,153 ATM  41 % owned by State Run Banks  ATM viable only if 200 transactions per day is there  Private sector bank becomes profitable within 10 to 12 months of its operations  Finance Ministry requires Rs. 3.5 lakh crore over next 10 years to capitalise state run banks Close loss making urban bank branches (9/4/2012)  74000 total branches are there in India  20 % are in Rural India  Only 5 % of 6 lakh villages in india have branches (5 % of 6,00,000 = 30000)  SBI alone has 16294 ATM Cheap Swiss Loans for Indian firms (10/4/2012)  Indian firms have raised debt at below 9 % in Switzerland including hedging cost  Local lenders in India would give at 11.5 % to 12%  Hedging cost in Swiss franc is about 10% to 15 % lower than US dollar Cheap Swiss Loans for Indian firms (10/4/2012)  Company  SBI  REC  EXIM Bank  Union Bank  IDBI $ million Swiss franc 325 200 175 160 110 China Surprises with Trade Surplus (11/4/2012)  Feb 2012 Trade deficit of $ 31.5 billion  March 2012 Trade surplus of $ 5.35 billion  Exports to US 10.4 % up  Exports to EU 3.1 % down  Year  2008  2009  2010  2011 Trade surplus $ 296 $ 196 $ 183 $ 155 SEBI new rule creates problems for PE(11/4/2012)  Alternative Investment Funds (AIF) cannot raise fresh funds unless registered with SEBI  Already PE firms are in midst of raising Rs. 26000 crores  In 2012 till March 2012 No. of PE funds 15 raised $ 2.23 billion  PE real estate funds 9 and raised $ 3.01 billion SEBI new rule creates problems for PE(11/4/2012)  New AIF rules mandate that investors should minimum invest Rs. 1 crore  Not more than 1000 investors should be there  Private Equity Fund Manager should contribute minimum 2.5 % of total corpus India Current Account Deficit threatens (11/4/2012)  Current Account Deficit 4.3 % of GDP  Current Account Deficit should not be more     than 3 % In 1991 crisis CAD had touched 4 % 1991 government had depreciated rupee by 24 % in 3 days Borrowed $ 2.2 billion from IMF Pledged 67 tonnes to gold with Bank of England and Swizz Bank to raise $ 600 million as foreign flows had dried up. India per capita income (16/4/2012)  India is above $ 1175 per capita income cut off for consessional IDA funds  2010 per capital GNI (In $)  Bangladesh 700  India 1330  Pakistan 1050  Vietnam 1160 FII holding in FMCG (16/4/2012)  Company         Mar12 Mar11 Colgate 20.20 18.72 Dabur 18.42 17.22 Godrej 25.31 19.48 HUL 19.43 17.26 ITC 17.40 14.04 Nestle 11.03 10.55 Tata Global 9.87 8.04 GSKconsumer 15.50 12.08 % rise 1.48 1.20 5.83 2.17 3.36 0.48 1.83 3.42 India to increase IMF quota(23/4/2012)  India quota at IMF would increase from 2.44% to 2.75% after completion of quota reforms  In absolute terms, india quota would increase from SDR(Special Drawing Rights) 5821 million to SDR 13114 million Indian bond market attractive for FII (23/4/2012) (rs.crore)  Year           FII Debt 2007 9428 2008 11772 2009 4563 2010 46408 2011 20292 2012 19213 (april 2012) FII can invest $ 15 billion in Govt Bond FII can invest $ 20 billion in Corp Bond Corp bond in US give 1.95% and Germany 1.85 % while in India it is 9.6 % Indian Govt Bonds yield is 8.2 % Reliance Result (23/4/2012)     Net Profit down 21 % to Rs. 4236 crores Revenues up 16 % to Rs. 87000 crores Oil and gas revenues fell 36.5% refining and petrochemical segments rose 17.7% and 14%  Oil & Gas Net sales Rs12898 crore versus Rs 17250 crore, down 25.2% YoY  EBIT margin: 40.7% versus 36.8%, y-o-y  EBIT margin 3.3% versus 4.3% GRM $8.6/bbl versus $8.4/bbl Entry load in MF needed (25/4/2012)  Only 200 distributors have gross revenue of Rs.     1 crore Out of this 200, 20 are banks and institutions 16000 odd active distributors only 185 IFA are earning Rs. 1 crore gross revenue In Singapore front load is 3% and expense ratio is 2.5 % Investors there pay in excess of 5 % to fund managers India to get higher IMF quota (26/4/2012)  India will pay Rs. 56,469 crores total for higher quota at         IMF Cash Rs. 14,346 crores Rs. 42,123 crores in local currency bonds Current Proposed Quota 2.44 % 2.75% Vote 2.34% 2.69% Quotas are assigned on basis of country relative position in world economy. India will be among top 10 countries in terms of quota FDI Flows (26/4/2012)  Year  2005-06  2006-07  2007-08  2008-09  2009-10  2010-11  2011-12 Rs. Crores 24,584 56,390 98,642 1,42,829 1,23,120 88,520 1,33,181 China one child policy hurting ? (27/4/2012)  China has currently 120 million people between      20 and 24 years age This would drop by 20 % in next decade 1979 china put one child policy China population will peak at 1.4 billion in 2030 US couples have average 2 children US and Europe took 100 years to become aging societies, China has taken less than 40 years to become aging society Mutual funds lose 8 lakh Equity folios (2/4/2012)  From Arpil 2011 to march 2012 over 8 lakh       mutual fund equity folios have closed AUM bifurcation (Rs. 5,87,000 crores) Banks/ FI 2.3 % Corporates 43.1% FII 0.7% HNI 26.6% Retail 27.4 % GDP Growth Result of luck or efforts ? (27/4/2012)(Moneycontrol)  from 1985-86 to 1990-91, the economy grew by an average of 5.6 percent. In the next six years (1991-92 to 1996-97), which included the glory years of Manmohan Singh’s reforms, we grew by all of 5.7 percent. In other words, by just 0.1 percent more, despite the big-bang reforms.  In the six years after that (1997-98 to 2002-03, which covers the second half of the United Front government and most of the NDA), the economy actually tapered down to an average of 5.23 percent, before finally taking off by an average of 8.45 in the next eight years.  The rebound in the economy that started in the last year of the NDA (2003-04) continued till 2010-11 – a full eight years – with a strong dip in 2008-09 during the Lehman crisis.  What this suggests is that it is the 2003-11 period that was the aberration, and not the earlier periods, when we were doing 5-6 percent after reforms. Thus we could revert to this mean if we don’t reform aggressively now. But even if we do reform, we are likely to see a growth slowdown over the next three-to-five years because reform, by definition, means the system will have to adjust to new shocks. Shocks initially bring growth down: in the year after Manmohan Singh’s reforms, India’s GDP growth in 1991-92 crashed to 1.4 percent before rebounding to 5.4 percent. FCCB Woes for Indian companies (2/5/2012)  Company Issued Outstand Maturity  Tata steel 875 382 5sep 12  Tata motors 490 473 12July 12  JP Associate 400 354 12sep 12  JSW steel 325 274 28Jun 12  Suzlon Energy 300 211 12Jun 12 10 Top countries with highest gold reserves (2/5/2012)  Country            Tonnes % of ForexRes US 8133 77.1 Germany 3396 74 IMF 2814 -Italy 2451 73.8 France 2435 73.3 China 1054 1.8 Switzerland 1040 18.6 Russia 879 9.7 Japan 765 3.3 Netherlands 612 62.5 Source:- World Gold Council BASEL III Norms (4/5/2012)  Basel III are guidelines framed by a committee of central banks that s based in Basel, Switzerland. RBI is also member of that committee.  Basel III has introduced many elements of capital such as clearly defined common capital that measures core equity capital in relation to its total risk weighted assets  Incremental equity requirement in Indian banking industry may go up as high as Rs.3.2 – 4 Trillion over next 6 years BASEL III Norms (4/5/2012)  Banks to maintain minimum 5.5 % in common equity as against 3.6% now by March 31, 2015  Banks must create a capital conservation buffer consisting of common equity of 2.5% by March 31, 2018  Banks should maintain a minimum overall capital adequacy ratio of 11.5% against 9 % by March 31, 2018  Banks must supplement risk based captial ratio by maintaining leverage ratio of 4.5% Reliance Fined Rs. 6600 crores (4/5/2012)        Year Planned output Actual 2009-10 27.62 39.31 2010-11 53.40 48.13 2011-12 61.88 38.61 2012-13 80.00 20.20 2013-14 80.00 14.00 Output fell as RIL did not drill wells as per Amended Initial Development Plan (AIDP)  RIL says drilling more well would not have helped due to unexpected geological complexitites PE and P/BV of Blue Chip Stocks (capital market April 2012) page 8  Company Debt/Equity  RIL 0.5  Tata Steel 1.9  Rcom 0.8  ICICI Bank 0.0  L&T 1.3  DLF 0.8  Suzlon 1.8  JP Associat 3.5 PE 12 5.0 23.3 16.2 18.7 25.1 16.5 22.3 P/BV 1.6 1.3 0.4 1.8 3.2 1.4 0.6 1.6 Infrastructure Sector (capital market page 11 april 2012)  Rs. 50 lakh crore in 12th Five year plan (2012-2017)  Half to come from private sector  Investment in infrastructure was 5.7% of GDP in Eleventh five year plan and now it is 8% in last year of 12th Five year plan.  FII investment limit in govt bonds, corp bonds increased from $ 5 billion to $ 20 billion in govt bonds and $ 25 billion in corp bonds  Withdrawal tax on interest payment has been reduced from 20 % to 5 % for 3 years  Investment linked deduction for capital expenditure increased at 150 % from 100% cold chain, warehouse, hospitals, fertilizer, affordable housing. Debentures trading at discount to face value (capital market page 81 april 2012)  Company Rate (%)  Shiram tran 11.35  Muthoot Fin 12.25  IndiaInfoline 11.70  Religare Finv 12.25  FV Rs. 1000. MP 995 977 952 983 Rating AA+ AAAAAA- Equity for all (8/5/2012)  Equity as an asset class has grown to nearly $ 55 trillion at end of 2010  This is near to 87 % of world GDP  India has 1.5 crore individuals out of 2.5 crores tax payees  Even if 1 crore invest Rs. 50,000 in Rajiv Gandhi Equity scheme the corpus comes to be Rs. 50,000 crore  This can act as counter force to FII Equity for all (8/5/2012)  Rajiv Gandhi Equity Saving Scheme  France adopted this strategy in Loi Monory scheme in late 1970  In five years household investment in France in equities increased from 7 % to 17%  Germany, Belgium and Sweden also copied this scheme with good results  In Sweden one sixth of population was converted into investors in equity. World Biggest companies (10/5/2012) ($ billion)            Company Exon Mobil JPMorgan Chase General Electric Royal Dutch Shell ICBC HSBC Holding PetroChina Berkshire Hathway Wells Fargo Petrobras Brasil Sales 433.5 110.8 147.3 470.2 82.6 102 310.1 143.7 87.6 145.9 Market value 407.4 170.1 213.7 227.6 237.4 164.3 294.7 202.2 178.8 180.0 Mumbai Home Prices (14/5/2012)  Avg price per square feet (Rs)  June 2008 8100  June 2009 5600  March 2012 10833  Total unsold stock is 120.42 million square feet. At current absorption rate, it could take 40 months to get rid of this inventory Mumbai Home Prices (14/5/2012)  No of months needed to sell Inventory (2011-12)  Q1 40  Q2 36  Q3 44  Q4 40  Sales are up 3 % from year ago and 20 % since last quarter Inflation rises (14/5/2012)  Inflation spiked to 7.23% on the back of higher manufacturing and food inflation. Analysts on average had expected it around 6.7%. Sensex 1986 to 2012 (17/5/2012)  Event Year  Harshad scam 92  Dotcom Bust 2000  Global melt 2008  Euro 2010 High 4487 5934 20827 20852 Low 2131 3181 8966 15175 Sensex 1986 to 2012 (17/5/2012)  Year  1 year  2 year  3 year  5 year  10 year Min Ret Max Ret prob of loss -25.3 % 84.5% 25.8% -15.4% 66.1% 20.0% -11.7% 58.3% 6.9% -3.4% 44.8% 7.0% 1% 31.1% 0.0% Spain again into Recession (18/5/2012)  Spain has again slipped into recession  It has go offer 5 % to attract buyers with year of 5.106 % vs 3.374 % for 3 year bonds Rupee vs IT sector (18/5/2012)  1 % fall in rupee results in 30-40 basis point rise in operating margins  Out of $ 100 billion export revenue of IT and BPO of Indian sector, 58 % was from US. Gold demand in China more than India (18/5/2012)  India gold demand at 207.6 tonnes  China gold demand at 255 tonnes  Gold ETF have grown 3 times in last one year  AUM of Gold ETF is Rs. 9614 crore in January 2012 vs Rs 3518 crores in January 2011 PE/VC Investment in Healthcare (18/5/2012)  In Care Hospitals – Advent India PE invested Rs. 560 crores  In Vasan Healthcare – Govt of Singapore investment corp invested Rs. 543 crores  Moolchand healthcare – Seqola Capital invested Rs. 100 crores  Wellspring Healthcare – Reliance venture capital invested Rs. 20.5 crores Foreign claims on India $ 137 billion due in 1 year (18/5/2012)  As per Bank for International Settlement, claim due on india in next one year is $ 137 billion  Currently india has $ 293 billion forex reserves  European banks account for 40 % of India total foreign dues  Leaving UK out, India Euro Zone exposure is about $ 60 billion which is 3.4 % of India GDP Face book IPO big hit (19/5/2012)  the company's closely watched stock began trading at USD 42.05, compared with an IPO price of USD 38 .  USD 18.4 billion in one of the biggest initial public offerings in US history.  With a value of USD 104 billion, Facebook became the first American company to debut at over a USD 100 billion. It is larger than Starbucks Corp and Hewlett-Packard combined.  The website, founded in a Harvard dorm room in 2004, has grown into the world's dominant social network with 900 million users. Facebook highly overvalued (21/5/2012)  PE for face book is at 108  PE for market in US 14  PE for Google is 18  Price to Sales Facebook 26  Price to Sales LinkedIn 17  Google makes $ 35 for each user which is 7 times more than Facebook Black Money – A Hype (22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)  Indian deposits in Swiss Banks  Year ExRate   2010  2009  2008  2007  2006 47.79 45.19 45.52 34.79 36.17 Liability % of towardIndian total Liabi 9295 0.13 8879 0.13 10924 0.12 14979 0.18 23373 0.29 Black Money – A Hype (22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)  FDI Inflows (2001 to 2011)  Mauritius 41.80%  Singapore 9.17%  USA 7.28%  UK 5.12%  Netherland 4.39% Japan Cyprus Germany France UAE 4.07% 3.71% 2.31% 1.75% 1.46% Black Money – A Hype (22/5/2012)(Rs.crore)  Swiss bank liability towards countries in 2010  Foreigners hold More Money  Offshore financial centre  UK  USA  European countries  Germany 28.9% 21.5% 15.8% 6.8% 3.6% Corporate Debt Restructuring becomes more strict (22/5/2012)  CDR is a platform where lenders and corporates meet to      restructure loan Objective is to ensure that company does enter financial trap Company promoters misuse company funds and then go to CDR Banks now to hike promoter contribution to 20-25 % and seek personal guarantee Banks to have power to change incompetent management if found diversion of funds or misuse of funds Banks have to restructure loans worth Rs. 1,50,000 crores India still better than world (23/5/2012)  GDP  USA  UK  Eurozone  OECD  China  India 2011 1.7 0.7 1.5 1.8 9.2 7.3 2012 2.4 0.5 -0.1 1.6 8.3 7.1 2013 2.6 1.9 0.9 2.2 9.3 7.7 IPO fails (30/5/2012)  Year IPO %  3 years -18.69  1 year -18.59  6 months 1.79 Sensex% 4.71 -10.12 1.54 Venture Funding picking up (31/5/2012)  From January to May 2012 64 new start up got Rs. 1351 crores of venture funding  In 2011, funding in first time ventures crossed $ 1 billion mark GDP at 9 year low (31/5/2012)  GDP at 5.3 % which is at 9 year low  India’s economy grew 5.3% during January-March (Q4), the eighth successive quarterly decline, and the slowest pace in nine years. For the full year, the economy grew 6.5%.  India's fiscal deficit during the 2011-12 fiscal year that ended in March was Rs 5,20,000 crore, or equivalent to 5.9% of India's gross domestic product Why buy gold ? (4/6/2012)  35 % buy for auspicious events like marriage,  20 % buy as investment  16% buy as back up for bad times  15 % buy for giving gifts  8% impulses or no reason  6% Fond of gold Eurozone revamp (4/6/2012)  July 9 is the deadline for creating Permanent Euro Area Rescue fund, the $ 620 billion European Stability Mechanism Indian Inc Improving but slowly (4/6/2012)  Analysis of 2302 companies in march 2012  Revenue increased by 13.5% yoy  Net Profit fall 8 % in March 2012 as compared to 20.6 % in Dec 2011 and 37.9% in Sep 2011  Operating Profit margin at 14.3 %  Interest cost jumped to 47.4% to Rs.30,123 crores is at record high in history of Indian Inc.  Interest Coverage Ratio is at 3.8 vs 3.4 which is heartening (ICR should go up) FII net sellers in May (7/6/2012)  FII were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 1100 crores in May  FII confidence low as policy paralysis hitting all reforms  Month FII flows (Rs.Crores)  Jan-Feb + 44000 crores  March + 8000 crores  April - 777 crores  May - 1100 crores China cuts rate (8/6/2012)  China has cut one year deposit rate from 3.5 % to 3.25 %  Lending rate cut from 6.56 % to 6.31%  Rate cut after 2008 to boost economy Active managed funds create wealth (11/6/2012)              Fund IDFC premier equity UTI opportunities ING Vysya Dividend yield Birla Sun life Dividend yield UTI MNC Birla Sun life MNC Tata Dividend Yield UTI Dividend yield ICIC Pru Discovery fund HDFC Top 200 Canara Robeco Equity NIFTY INDEX 5 years return % 15.31 12.69 12.16 11.92 11.78 11.70 11.45 11.42 11.13 10.12 10.16 3.54% Years of NIL return from Indexes world over (11/6/2012)              Country Years with NIL return Japan Nikki 225 29.3 Spain IBEX 35 15.12 France CAC 40 14.95 UK FTSE 100 14.45 Germany DAX 13.95 US Nasdaq 12.95 Russia Micex 6.36 US Dow Jones 5.53 China Shangai 5.53 Brazil 5.03 India Sensex 4.78 From 1992 to 2003 Sensex actually reduced by 33 % i.e long holding of 11 years FII no and sub accounts (11/6/2012)  As on June 8, the number of registered FIIs in the country stood at 1,754 and total number of sub-accounts were 6,343 during the same period. Gold Prices reality (14/6/2012)  In FY 2011-12, India imported $ 56 billion worth       of Gold August 1, 2011 gold was $ 1621 per ounce June 8, 2012 gold was $ 1571 per ounce Loss of 3 % But during the same period Rupee depreciated from Rs. 44.07 to 55.62 per USD Rupee fell by 26.19 % Gold during period rise from Rs.23150 to Rs. 29680 per 10 grams PE Struggle to Exit broking houses (15/6/2012) ($ million)  Company         PE Stake Prime Security Newvernon 6.8 Bonanza Gaja capital 11.6 Karvy Baring Asia ICIC venture 40 Angel IFC 12.5 PL Balyasny 2.8 JRG Baring India 45.9 Anandrathi Citi 19.83 Amt 12.4 5.94 110 37 10 35 20 Motilal Oswal raises Rs. 475 crores for 2nd PE fund (20/6/2012)  Motilal Oswal has raised Rs. 475 crores  Out of 475 crores – Rs. 100 crores from Hong kong based Sqandran Capital Advisor  Remaining Rs. 375 crore from HNI investors “Rcom poster boy for everything that could go wrong” (20/6/2012)  Neeraj Monga of Veritas Investment Research believes various mergers and amalgamations have led to the Rs 22,000 crore “inflated book equity” of Reliance Communications  The stock is trading at Rs 60. So the market doesn’t really believe in the book value of the company. We’ve just come out and said it very clearly,” he claims.  In its June 8 report, the Canada-based equity research had assigned a value of Rs 15 to the stock of Anil Ambani-promoted telecom firm, citing high debt, "whimsical" accounting policies and poor corporate governance standards as the key reasons. India contributes to IMF war chest (21/6/2012)       Country India Brazil Russia China South Africa Contribution to IMF $ 10 billion $ 10 billion $ 10 billion $ 43 billion $ 2 billion  IMF will issue bonds and pay interest to countries. This is war chest that IMF has made which has $ 456 billion but target is to create $ 550 billion Electricity shortfall (21/6/2012)  Region        Installed Supply Shortfall North 49919 39798 10121 West 57108 46330 10778 South 39645 32763 6882 East 29802 21057 8745 N East 2095 1697 399 This reduces industrial production and adds to idle capacity causing losses to companies Figures in Mega watts Manufacturing slows down world over (22/6/2012)  China factory sector shrank for eight straight month in June  PMI fall to seven month low of 48.1 in June from 48.4  US PMI has come down to 52.9 from 54.0  10 year Spain and Italy bonds are quoting 7 % yield showing that attracting investors is becoming more difficult Claim Settlement Ratio for insurance firms (22/6/2012)  Company Settlement Ratio Pending %  LIC 97.03 1.46  HDFC life 95.41 0.61  Birla sun life 94.66 0.35  ICICI 94.61 2.25  ING Vysya 90.49 5.19  Private Sector (overall) 86.05 5.01 PMLA getting tough (22/6/2012)  69,224 suspicious transactions received by FIU India  53,384 reports were forwarded to Law Enforcement agencies and Intelligence agency  Travel agents, vehicle dealers have to report to FIU Ind for suspicious dealings Weak show of MF SEBI ask questions (22/6/2012)  SEBI planning to call MF fund managers who have consistently performed badly  Scheme Return% Benchmark %  JM Basic -10.30 5.52  Escorts Power -9.17 -13.05  JM Core 11 -9.07 5.17  SBI Infra fund -5.96 5.22  L&T Infra -5.56 5.87 FCCB Issuers may Default (22/6/2012)  3i infotech, Great offshore and Hotel Leela      ventures may default 48 companies hold FCCB that mature this year Value of FCCB maturing this year $ 5 billion of which $ 2.1 billion will come up for June and July 2012 Rupee in 2007-08 Was Rs. 42 per $ In 2012 it is Rs. 56 per $ The depreciation could add Rs. 10,000 crore on redemptions CCI imposes Rs. 6307 crore fine on 11 cement companies (20/6/2012)  Company  Jaiprakash Asso  Ultra Tech cement  Ambuja Cement  ACC  Lafarge India  Century Textiles  Madras cement  India cement  Binani cement  JK cement  CMA Penalty (Rs. Crore) 1323 1175 1163 1147 480 274 258 187 167 128 0.73 FMC cautions for trade changes code (26/6/2012)  Client code modification is done to transfer trade from one account to another account  It is mostly done in Jan, Feb and March to avoid tax  From October 2011 to march 2012 CCM was 1373 from 1,00,620 in October 2010 to March 2011  In terms of volume it has reduced from Rs. 25000 crore to Rs. 216 crore FII power (28/6/2012)  FII have assets under custody of more than $ 200 billion  17 % of market capitalization  40% of free float shares in Indian stock market  FII invested $ 32 billion in Indian debt market Bittersweet Ethanol Pricing (28/6/2012)  Government has decided Rs. 27 per litre for ethanol to be sold to oil companies  Earlier price was Rs. 21 per litre  Oil companies say that cost of making petrol is Rs. 23 per litre and paying more than this for making ethanol will make blending unviable On mobile Corporate Governance issues (29/6/2012)  KPMG checking Onmobile books for financial     bungling Rs. 3000 crore mkt value in 2008 Rs. 400 crore current market value CEO Arvind Rao who is founder is at center of investigation for taking away funds Again Corporate Governance issue shows that wealth of shareholders destroyed Stock trading at Rs. 33 lowest in lifetime Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)  Share of Agri & Allied activity in GDP (%)  Year       % 1970-71 43.9 1980-81 38.3 1990-91 33.0 2000-01 25.3 2011-12 16.0 Store capacity in large dams was 177 billion cubic meter in 1995 which is currently at 253 billion cubic meter Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)  Rainfall % of normal  2007-08  2008-09  2009-10  2010-11  2011-12 106 % 98% 78% 102% 101% Agri Growth % 5.5 0.4 1.7 7.0 2.8 Monsoon Vs India (2/7/2012)  Monsoon Deviation %  2007-08  2008-09  2009-10  2010-11  2011-12 6% -2 % -22% 2% 1% Inflation % 4.8% 8.0% 3.6% 8.6% 8.8% Textile sector loan recast (2/7/2012)  Textile sector has debt of Rs. 35000 crore  35 million workers work in textile sector  The package involves Rs. 22000 crore term loan, Rs. 5500 crore working capital loan and Rs. 7500 crore loan for SME units. Airlines Industry wants FDI (3/7/2012)  Airlines Industry growing at 20 % per annum  By 2015, 180 million people in India to travel by airways  Indian Aviation sector 9th largest in world Barclay CEO Robert Diamond in LIBOR mess (5/7/2012)  Robert Diamond the CEO of Barclay bank has step down  Barclay has been accused in manipulating LIBOR which is international rate for lending and borrowing. PE investors invest in real estate (5/7/2012)  Target Acquirer  Sheth Devel Morgan stanley  3C company Red Fort  RMZ Corp Baring Pvt Equ  Phoenix Ascendas  Suntech Reality Kotak RS crore 461 150 500 176 310 Globally banks cut rates (6/7/2012)  ECB cuts rates by 0.25 % which now bring rate to 0.75 %  China reduced 1 year lending rates by 31bps and deposit rate by 25 bps Mumbai real estate slow down (6/7/2012)  In Mumbai 80,000 residential units are unsold  Value comes to Rs. 1,00,000 crore  Buyers shun property market due to poor sentiment and higher Interest rates Reasons for China slowdown (9/7/2012)  China has $ 2.5 trillion forex reserve but household and corporation debt is 120 % of GDP and including banks it goes to 200% of GDP  Real estate bubble as $ 10 trillion is in money circulation than in US $ 8 trillion  China has invested 9 % of GDP in real estate which is now bubble which is even higher than Japan and US which was real estate bust in 2007  In last 3 decades research on 124 nations shows that 52 % were democratic and 48 % authoritarian. Political system does’nt matter for growth EU stock market return post Euro introduction (9/7/2012)    Belgium  Finland  France  Germany  Greece  Ireland  Italy  Netherlands  Portugal  Spain Returns since euro launched -37 % -8% -20% -28% -77% -36% -58% -42% -57% -42% MF Distributes commission despite ban (11/7/2012)  Top 240 distributors have earned Rs. 1830     crore commission in FY 12 This is 8 % more than last year HSBC, HDFC and Citibank have earned the most 30,000 small agents are out of business since they could not run without commission 45 % of equity fund sales comes from Independent Advisors as against 29 % by banks Banks mobilize NRE deposits (11/7/2012)  Banks mobilize $ 10 billion through NRE deposits  Banks are offering 9 % to NRE deposits for one year Arbitrage funds score over debt and equity funds (17/7/2012)           Arbitrage Funds 1 year return (%) IDFC 9.8 JM 9.4 UTI spread 9.3 Reliance arbitrage 9.2 SBI arbitrage 9.1 HDFC arbitrage 8.9 Kotak equity arbitrage 8.9 Religare arbitrage 8.8 Debt funds have given avg return of 8.4 % while equity funds value dipped by 4.1 % Gold demand rises (30/7/2012)  Indian households have $ 950 billion gold  US Mine production data  2010 231 tonnes  2011 237 tonnes  US Geelogical survey reports US has 3000 tonnes of Gold reserves  North America accounted for 16.1 % of total output in 2011 Gold funds failed as compared to Gold ETF (30/7/2012)  Funds One year return %  SBI Gold ETF 28.04  Reliance Gold ETF 28.03  Religare gold ETF 28.01  UTI gold ETF 27.97  Quantum gold 27.96  DSP Blackrock world gold -11.5  AIG world gold fund -16.5 FII buys in July (30/7/2012)  During July 3-27, Foreign Institutional Investors (FIIs) were gross buyers of shares worth Rs 44,192 crore, while they sold equities amounting to Rs 35,768 crore, translating into a net inflow of Rs 8,424 crore  After taking the latest inflows into account, FIIs investment in the equity market stood at Rs 50,417 crore so far in 2012 and Rs 24,048 crore into the debt market during the same period.  As on July 27, the number of registered FIIs in the country stood at 1,756 and total number of sub-accounts were 6,341 during the same period.  FII investment in 2012 in Rs. Crore (2/8/2012)  Month  January  February  March  April  May  June  July Net FII Flow 10357 25212 8381 -1109 -347 -501 10271 Proposed STT to hurt market  AT present investor pays Rs. 100 per Rs. 1 lakh turnover on delivery base tranaction  Rs. 17.33 per lakh on sale of derivatives.  Service tax of 12.36%  This increases the transaction cost Eye on low tax paying sector (4/9/2012)  Corporate tax is 30% but average tax rate comes to 24 %  Certain taxes are in range of 10% to 22%  If the average tax rate is incresed from 24 % to 26% then also govt will get Rs. 30,000 crores Exports down 35 month low (4/9/2012)  For april to july 2012, exports have fallen by 5% to % 97.6 billion compared with $ 102.8 billion las year  Slow down in exports clear show that world economy is slowing PMI data for world (4/9/2012)  Countries  India  Russia  UK  China  France  Germany  Spain July 52.9 52.0 45.2 49.3 43.4 43.0 42.3 August 52.8 51.0 49.5 47.6 46.0 44.7 44.0 Two wheelers on bumpy road (6/9/2012)  Company Fall in sales in August  Hero Motocorp - 12 %  Bajaj Auto - 14%  Hondo motorcycle 39 %  TVS - 17%  Suzuki Motorcycle 36 %  Mahindra - 34 % MCX-SX, BSE and NSE fees  MCX-SX NSE  Admission 5 lac 5 lakh 5000(Eq +FO) 2.5 lac equity 20 lac 1.5cr 75lac(eq) 30 lac 30lac 1 cr 75 lac   Deposit   Networth  BSE 30lac(Eq) 25lac (FO) Companies paying less than 24 % effective tax rate (7/9/2012 BS)  Company  Ranbaxy  Cairn India  Reliance infra  Sun Pharma  Bank of Baroda  HCL Tech  Tata Motors  Maruti Effective Tax (%) - 8.1 4.4 9.7 11.4 17.3 17.4 18.7 19.5 Companies paying less than 24 % effective tax rate (7/9/2012 BS)  Company  RIL  Hindalco  Wipro  HUL  NTPC Effective tax (%) 20.6 21.3 22.7 23.0 23.6 Infosys Acquisitions (11/9/2012)  April 2006 Citigroup stake in Piegon for Rs. 518 crore  Nov 2009 Infosys BPO buys Atlants based McCannish system for Rs. 177 crores  Dec 2011 Infosys BPO buys Australia based firm for Rs. 194 crore  July 2007 Buys captive BPO centre of Royal Phillips Electronics for Rs. 110 crore  June 2011 Acquires software solutions of Gen-I for Rs. 18 crore  September 2012 Acquires switzerland based management consultancy firm lodestone holding for Rs. 1932 crore Infosys deal costly (11/9/2012)  Axon Lodestone  Deal value ($mil) 658 349  Deal value/revenue(times) 1.3 1.6  No of consultants 2500 750  Cost per consultant 1.5crore 2.6 cr External Debt worrisome (11/9/2012) ( $ billion)  India external debt in last 5 years  FY07  FY08  FY09  FY10  FY11  FY12 172 222 224 260 305 345 India current account deficit (11/9/2012)  FY08  FY09  FY10  FY11  FY12 1.3 % 2.3% 2.8% 2.7% 4.2% RBI raises ceiling for external commercial borrowings (Moneycontrol 12/9/2012)  As per the new regulation, a company can borrow offshore funds to the tune of 75% of the average foreign exchange earnings in the immediate past three years or 50% of the highest foreign exchange earnings realized in any of those three years, whichever is higher.  Currently, a company is allowed to raise 50% of the average annual export earnings during the same time mentioned above. Indian Industry capital investment lowest in 5 years (17/9/2012)  Gross fixed assets grew at 12.3 % in FY12 vs 34% and 26 % in two years to FY08  3 out of 8 companies in Nifty reported lower growth  RIL, Ultratech, Ambuja cement, BHEL, Crompton greaves PSU investments targets (17/9/2012)  Company Rs. Crore  Coal India 4000 in 12-13  NPTC 20,000  BHEL 10,260 (next 5 year)  ONGC 1,65,000 during 12 plan  SAIL 45000 on projects  Rs. 1.8 lakh crore cash pile of nine blue chip PSU RBI cuts CRR (18/9/2012)  RBI cuts CRR rate by 25 basis point  Now CRR is at 4.5 % which was earlier 4.75 %  This would release Rs. 17000 crore into the banking system FII inflows strong (19/9/2012)  In year 2012, FII have invested Rs. 61000 crores ($ 13.7 billion) so far  DII have sold Rs. 32000 crores shares highest since 2005  FII invested Rs. 6135 crores after Govt announced reforms Swiss bourse woos Indian firms (19/9/2012)  Switzerland is home to $ 4000 billion assets and world leader in cross border private banking with market share of 30 %  Under Swiss law, Swiss Exchange enjoys self regulatory powers RCOM to raise tariff (21/9/2012)  Reliance communication has decided to raise tariff by 25 %  The base price will be increased from 1.2 paise to 1.5 paise per second Retail industry world wide (21/9/2012)  Global Retail industry by 2017 would be $ 20 trillion  In India share of organized retail 5 - 6 %  Brazil share of organized retail 36 %  China share of organized retail 20 %  Indonesia share of organized retail 30 % Companies with good ROCE (21/9/2012)  Company      FY10 Idea cellular 8.3 Reliance cap 8.9 JP power ven 8.4 GMR infra 4.0 Indian Hotels 3.1 FY11 7.3 7.0 4.4 0.0 0.0 FY12 9.4 13.5 7.2 3.7 5.8  Rs. 15 lakh invested in these companies becomes Rs. 45 lakh in 5 years Reforms bring FII back (24/9/2012)  In 2012, FII have invested net Rs. 73,130 crore     in equities On average FII purchased daily stocks worth Rs. 395 crores on each trading day in 2012 On average mutual fund investors withdrew Rs. 64 crores every trading day in 2012 More than 10 lakh equity folios of retail and HNI were closed between sep 2011 and March 31 2012 FII have invested Rs. 25977 crores in debt in 2012 Euro zone to have two funds (24/9/2012)  European Stability Mechanism (ESM)  European Financial Stability Facility (EFSF)  Total bailout fund of $ 2 trillion to ensure that even big economies are bailed out Rajiv Gandhi Equity scheme (24/9/2012  Direct retail investment in equities eligible for the scheme  Listed Mutual funds and ETF to be included  Rs. 50,000 to be invested and 50 % of that to get as tax deduction  Only Income up to Rs. 10 lakh eligible  BSE 100, CNX 100 and shares of PSU above Rs. 4000 crore of turnover eligible securities for investment  One can book the profit after one year but principle remain lock for 3 years SIP stood test of time (26/9/2012)  SIPs have given on average 15 % since 2007  Sensex has given 7.5 % since 2007  Scheme 3 year 5 year  SBI magnum emerging 18.52 21.33  ICICI Pru Discovery 9.91 19.15  Reliance Equity Oppor 12.85 19.07  HDFC Mid cap Oppor 11.55 17.96 SIP stood test of time (26/9/2012)  Scheme 3 year  IDFC Premier equity 9.51  Canera Rebeco emer 10.06  UTI opportunities 10.40  ING dividend yield 6.85 5 year 16.67 15.75 15.31 15.25 Invesco buys 49% in Religare AMC (28/9/2012)  US based Invesco mutual fund has picked up 49 % stake in Religare Mutual fund for about Rs. 460 crore valuing the company that has assets under management of Rs 14600 crores at about Rs. 950 crore.  The deal is valued at 6.4 % of closing AUM SME hit by loan restructuring (3/10/2012)  In first half of 2012, CDR cell has received 69 applications of SME wroth Rs. 37,547 crores for restructuring  Last year 35 cases worth Rs. 27,753 crore were reported to CDR FII big buys in Sep (3/10/2012)  FII buys record shares worth Rs. 19000 crores in September 2012  The highest in one month in this calender year MF AUM distribution (3/10/2012)  MF assets from top 5 cities  City       % of AUM Mumbai 44.4 Delhi 13.7 Bangalore 5.43 Kolkata 5.3 Chennai 4.6 MF can now charge unit holders additional 30 basis point over 2.25 if they raised 30 % of inflows from place outside top 15 cities MF Asset beyond top 15 cities (3/10/2012)  City  Gurgaon  Bhubaneswar  Cochin  Ludhiana  Patna  Nagpur  Indore  Rajkot  Nasik  Coimbatore % of AUM 0.52 0.47 0.42 0.41 0.36 0.35 0.33 0.31 0.29 0.26 Bank deposit reduce (4/10/2012)  Bank deposit grew by 13.7 % which was less than RBI projection of 16 %  Bank loans grew by 16.4 % as against RBI projection of 17% Companies paying dividend for last 10 years (4/10/2012)  Company Total dividend 10 yr % retrn  paid in 10 yr %  Hero Motor 19700 20.23  Infosys 8265 16.19  JSPL 2670 42.35  HCL tech 4675 21.52  ITC 3850 25.75  ONGC 3040 11.38 Companies paying dividend for last 10 years (4/10/2012)  Company Total dividend 10 yr % retrn  paid in 10 yr %  Grasim 2200 18.10  HDFC 2745 22.61  Cummin India 3580 22.95  MRF 2400 21.63  Hindalco 1650 4.68  Britannia 2230 15.53 IMF cuts India’s growth (10/10/2012)  IMF has cut india GDP growth forecast to 4.9%  In first half, our economy has grew 5.4 % Rise in urea prices (12/10/2012)  Urea prices increased by Rs. 50  Farmers now will pay Rs. 5360 per tonne as compared to Rs.5310  Rs. 70,000 spend on subsidy out of which 33 % goes for urea  Price rise happened after 2 years  Last time it was in 2010 Trade Deficit at 11 month high (12/10/2012)  Trade deficit at 11 month high at $ 18 billion  This increases current account deficit  Currently Current Account Deficit is 4.3 % of GDP Warren Buffet uses facebook for sales (12/10/2012)  Buffer insurance brokeage unit in india would sell insuracne at 7.5 % discount  It will use face book for selling their product  One year old car insurance for Honda city Rs. 11917 with Tata AIG, Rs. 13000 with ICICI Lombard and with Berkshire the cost comes to Rs. 11595 Big Brokers pay less Advance tax (12/10/2012) (Rs. In crore)  Company Current Last year % chg  Citigroup 5 20 -75  Morgan Stanley 21 47 -55  Franklin Temple 5.8 9.9 -41  JP Morgan 9.15 15 -39  Sharekhan 7.5 5.5 36  Kotak 10 7 43  Suzlon defaults (12/10/2012)  Total debt on Suzlon books Rs. 14035 crore in March 2012 vs Rs. 12,241 in March 2011  Cash balance in march 2012 is only Rs. 262 crores  Defaulted for $ 209 million payment to bond holders India housing market huge scope (15/10/2012)  Outstanding housing loans as proportion to GDP is 80 % in USA  It is 20 % in China  India has this ratio of 8 % FII rise stake in Nifty companies (15/10/2012)  In July – Sep Quarter, FII have pumped in Rs.        38,000 crore while DII sold Rs. 18800 crores Company Rise in FII stake (%) Cairn India 7.67 Axis bank 5.52 IDFC 2.12 HDFC 1.98 ICICI BANK 1.55 FII have increased their stake in 23 Nifty companies and 101 of BSE 500 companies IPO norms under SEBI scrutiny (16/10/2012)  Companies cannot use more than 25 %of the proceeds     from IPO for “General Corporate Purpose” Issue related expense cannot be part of General Corporate Purpose expense Merchant banker to declare itself as Marketing Lead Manager Minimum application amount increased from Rs. 10,000 to Rs. 15,000 Issuer has to allot minimum lot of shares to each retail investor Mumbai share in NSE 62 % (25/10/2012)  City Aug 12  Mumbai 62%  Ahmedabad 4.9%  Delhi 8.3%  Chennai 1.5%  Kolkata 7.6%  Rajkot 1.2% FY2011-12 60.40% 6.10% 8.4% 1.4% 8.6% 1.4% Mumbai share in NSE 62 % (25/10/2012)  City Aug 12  Mumbai 50.19%  Ahmedabad 8.0%  Delhi 4.43%  Chennai 0.53%  Koltaka 6.20%  Rajkot 4.16% FY2011-12 37.40% 9.5% 10.9% 0.40% 5.0% 4.9% Public sector banks risk at laons (29/10/2012)  Rs. 13000 crores stuck in Deccan holding, KFA  Rs. 7000 crores in KFA of 11 PSU banks  Net NPA ratio of PSU banks in 2011-12 is 1.53 which was 1.09 in 2010-11  Net NPA ratio of Private banks was 0.46 in 2011-12 and 0.56 in 2010-11 RBI cuts only CRR (31/10/2012)  RBI reduced CRR by 0.25 %  Now CRR is 4.25 %  It will release Rs. 17,500 crores in the system  Repo rate kept unchanged at 8 % Core sector grows (1/11/2012)  Core sector of 8 Industries grew 5.1 % in September  Reviving the hopes of recovery  Coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement and electricity are core sector  It accounts for 38 % weight age in IIP India Inc. having problems of stress (2/11/2012)  66 % of working professionals feel lonely  77% want to share their high and lows with someone  63% work harder than they want due to competitive environment  57% loosing touch with emotional side due to over dependence on technology India valuations (20/11/2012)  Sensex has given 18 % return this year, the        most in BRIC FII have purchased $ 18.7 billion of indian shares this year Country PE ratio Sensex 15 Brazil 16 Russia 5.6 Shanghai 9.6 MSCI Emerging index 11.2 Debt Equity Ratio (20/11/2012)             Sector FY01 FY12 Oil and gas 0.6 0.4 Power 0.6 1.1 Steel 2.4 1.0 Telecom 0.2 1.4 Automobile 0.6 0.5 Non-ferrous metal 0.3 0.1 Textile 0.9 1.0 Infrastructure 0.8 2.0 Cement 1.6 0.1 Pharma 0.3 0.2 Average debt equity ratio of Indian companies has increased from 0.36 to 0.79 from 2005 to 2012 IKEA gets a FIPB nod to set up shop in India (21/11/2012)  IKEA to invest Rs. 10,500 crores or 1.9 $ billion  It has 336 stores in 44 countries NIM of Indian Banks (26/11/2011)  Banks          NIM % (2QFY 13) Andhra bank 3.1 Bank of Baroda 2.7 Indian bnak 3.1 Punjab National bank 3.5 SBI 3.3 Union bnak 3.0 J & K bank 3.9 Axis bank 3.5 Hdfc bank  ICICI bank  IDFC 4.2 3.0 4.1 FII investment (26/11/2012)  FII have invested net $ 19 billion so far in indian stock market  This is second highest inflow by FIIs in calender year.  In 2010 FII had made net investment of about $ 29 billion BSE remains top Bourse(26/11/2012)  BSE has become world first stock exchange in terms of listed companies  It has 5174 listed companies  This data is given by World Federation of Exchange (WFE) Direct invest plans in MF from January 1 2013 (26/11/2012)  Direct plans good for those who have expertise to invest on own  Plans to be cheaper by 50 – 75 basis points as customer wont have to pay any fund distribution charges  Small investors may also shift to direct plans which may not be good for new investors at outset  Distributor community may have to start looking at alternate sources of business like Insurance and real estate SEBI on shareholding (26/11/2012)  Company Promoter Holding  Wipro 78.3%  Jet airways 80%  DLF 78.6%  Essar Shipping 83.7%  Jaypee Infra 83.3%  Larson Tubro 82.6%  Indian Bank 80%  State bank of mysore 92.3% Greece Rescue plan works (28/11/2012)  Greece got 40 Billion Euro tranche which has rescued it  It has to reduced debt to 124 % of GDP by 2020 Indian GDP in trouble (28/11/2012)  Indian GDP growth may dip to 4.5 % this year       as per OECD World growth estimated to only 2.9% as earlier projection of 3.4% Projected rise in world trade Year % 2012 2.8 2013 4.7 2014 6.8 I Bankers at job risk(28/11/2012)  Since mid 2011, nearly 15000 I bankers have lost their jobs  Nearly 25000 I banker jobs on the block as slump bites  Companies looking to shrink manpower with decisions on fund raising and takeover being put off SEBI caps charge on Institutional brokerage(28/11/2012)  The regulator has fixed 12 basis point (0.12%) on equity and 5 basis point (0.05%) on derivatives trade  It would come effect from 19th November  Large broking houses spend Rs 40 crore on research while mid size broking spends Rs. 40 to 50 lakhs on individual company research  Cap on brokerage has negative effect Moody upgrades India (28/11/2012)  Moody reaffirmed India “Stable” outlook which was liked by investors world over.  Sensex went up by 305 point  This shows strength of positive rating Banks exposure to real estate (29/11/2012)  Bank          Exposure (Rs. Crore) SBI 1,44,668 ICICI 81,422 Axis 52,730 PNB 48,475 IDBI Bank 36,785 Bank of Baroda 27,157 Standard Charter 26,082 HDFC 25,020 Bank of India 24,050 Loans slow down (3/12/2012)  Personal loan grows at 23 % against 9 % last     year which is unhealthy Loan under credit cards have rise by 17 % against 5 % last year Housing loans falls to 12% from 17 % Consumer durables lending also falls by 17 % Unsecured personal loans are the most risky loans as bad debt probability is high Banking Bill open doors for future trading (11/12/2012)  Banking bill allows banks to trade in futures trading  To raise voting rights of stakeholders in private banks to 26 % from 10%  To raise voting rights of shareholders in nationalised banks from 1 % to 10% FII pumps in huge money (11/12/2012)  FII have invested $ 21 billion pushing Sensex 26 % up in this calendar year  Highest among the BRIC nations Bankers and ARC laud debt recovery (11/12/2012)  Enforcement of Security Interest and Recovery of Debts Laws (Amendment) Bill, 2011 was approved in parliament  It seeks to convert any part of the debt into shares of the defaulting company by an asset reconstruction company (ARC) Pledge shares (12/12/2012                 HDIL INDIAN CEMENTS UNITECH JAIN IRRIGATION PANTALOONS RETAILS JSW STEEL WELSPUN CORP UNITED SPIRITS SUZLON ENERGY JP POWER DISH TV ZEE ENTERTAINMENT JSW ENERGY BHUSHAN STEEL CROMPTON GREAVES SINTEX INDUSTRIES % 96% 67% 79% 48% 62% 50% 47% 98% 96% 72% 45% 31% 33% 34% 35% 37% IIP data shoots up but on low base effect (13/12/2012)  Month  Jan 2012  Feb  April  May  June  July  August  Sep  October IIP Growth (%) 1% 4.3% -1.3% 2.5% -2.0% -0.1% 2.3% -0.7% 8.2% New reforms by govt (14/12/2012)  Clears urea investment policy (sector should see investment of Rs. 35000 crores)  National Investment Board to be called as Cabinet Committee on Investment headed by PM.  Fast execution of projects more than Rs. 1000 crores Domestic Institutions net sellers (14/12/2012)  DII have been highest sellers to the tune of Rs. 51000 crores  Highest selling in history of Indian capital market in one year SEBI announces steps to prevent flash crash (14/12/2012)  First check on value of order, any single buy or sale order above Rs. 10 crore would not be accepted in normal market  Next check is in margin with exchange  When broker position exceeds 90 % of margin-collateral the broker limit is freezed and only squaring allowed LIC makes huge profit (17/12/2012)  Rs. 22000 crores invested by LIC into the market in 2012  Rs. 21000 crores of shares sold by LIC in 2012  Made a profit of Rs. 11000 crores this year and had made profit of Rs. 9000 crore last year  Global funds have invested Rs. 1.1 lakh crore this year in stock market India natural resources worth $ 1 trillion (17/12/2012)  Import bill total india has $ 450 billion  Oil imports alone are $ 150 billion  Natural resources india has potential of $ 1 trillion Companies Bill 2011 cleared (19/12/2012)  CSR:- spending 2% of net profit on CSR for companies      having profit of Rs. 5 crore or more in last 3 years Pay:- Directors pay should not exceed 5% of company net profit Compensation:- if firs winds up operations, it must pay 2 years salary to its employees Auditor:- number of firms an auditor can serve capped at 20 Ratification:- Appointment of auditors for five years to be ratified annually SFIO:- More statutory powers given to SFIO to tackle corproate fraud Banking law (amendment Bills 2011) (19/12/2012)  RBI gets more power can supersede bank     board Voting rights of shareholders in bank goes up (pvt from 10 % to 26 % and public from 1 % to 10%) Banks not allowed to trade in commodity futures RBI to be banking regulator CCI to regulate Mergers and Acquisition SEBI slamps merchant bankers (20/12/2012)  From April 2008 to march 2012 out of 117 companies which came out with IPO  42 trade above issue price  72 are considerably below issue price One person company gets nod (20/12/2012)  One person company gets nod in the new companies bill  Large number of sole proprietorship will enter the corporate world  In sole proprietorship the liability of the member is unlimited while in company form it is limited SME power (26/12/2012)  SME account for 45 % of country industrial output  Rs. 30,000 crores to manufacturing output  Rs. 12,000 crores to total exports  SME manufacturers 8000 products which is 9 % of india GDP  In 2001 SME contribution to GDP was only 6 % while it now at 22 % in 2012 Mid cap funds outperform (26/12/2012)  Fund one yr return%  Principle emerging 51.52  SBI magnum emerging 50.27  Reliance regular saving 42.83  Principal growth 42.62  Principal tax saving 43.14  Reliance ELSS 42.55  Reliance top 200 36.16  ICICI top 200 32.46 Job Generation falls 21 % in 2012(26/12/2012)  Job generation fell 21 % across various sectors      in the whole economy Total 5.3 lakh jobs were created IT topped with 2.1 lakh jobs being created Academics and education 34,500 second Insurance 27,100 Banking 24,500 Stocks where FII increased their stake (27/12/2012)  Company  Bharti aritel  ICICI bank  LNT  Jindal steel  SBI  Tata power  ITC % chg 2.78 2.38 2.19 2.03 1.84 1.54 1.06 FII holding % 16.44 36.38 15.4 22.17 9.14 23.45 18.32 US debt (27/12/2012)  Total US debt $ 16 trillion  US government owns 40 % through Fed Reserve, Social Security trust fund  Individuals, companies, pension fund, mutual funds own 25 %  Asian central banks, China, Japan and oil exporting countries own 35 % US Averted FISCAL CLIFF (3/1/2013)  Income above $4,00,000 per individual or $ 4,50,000 for      family to be taxed at 39.6% which is currently at 35% Above same income level the capital gain tax and dividend tax would be at 20 % from 15 % Real estate tax at 40 % for estates of more than $ 10 million per couple which was earlier 35 % tax rate Increase pay roll tax to 6.2% from 4.2% on workers first $1,13,700 of income Alternative minimum tax is linked to inflation index which saves millions from being affected Prevents 27% cut in payments to medicare providers for one year SEBI plans more strick norms for Buyback  Listed company should compulsory buy back 50 % of announced shares  Companies must complete the process within 3 months  They will have to park 25 % of the maximum amount in an escrow account PMI rises to 6 month high (3/1/2013)  HSBC market india manufacturing index PMI rose to 54.7 in december from 53.7 in November Gold imports creating imbalance (3/1/2013)  $ 22.3 billion Indian current account deficit in July- september  Current Account deficit high at 4.2 % of GDP  $ 38.7 billion current account deficit in first half of 2012 India Inc set to declare good numbers (7/1/2013)  Operating profits of Nifty companies to rise 18 % in Q3  Net profit likely to rise by 12 %  Revenue or sales growth to be 9.3 %, which is lowest in 13 quarters as still consumer spending low GAAR postponed till 2016 (15/1/2013)  GAAR to come from 1st April 2016  P notes spared that is GAAR will not apply to Non    resident investors of FIIs and PEs GAAR will apply only if main purpose of arragnment if to avoid tax Taxpayer will have chance to argue case before officer Assessing officer will have to issue notice stating reasons Investment before 30th August 2010 will not attract GAAR India vs China (21/1/2013)  China grew at 7.7% in 2012  India grew at 5.3% in 2012  China per capita income is $ 9146 is more than twice of India  Investment rate as % of GDP in China is 48% and that of India is 36% European crisis still not over (21/1/2013)  European Stability Mechanism has Euro 500 billion  Spain has debt of Euro 800 bilion (74% of GDP) and Italy has debt of Euro 1.9 trillion (120% of GDP)  Banks have risk of capital flight from Europe to other nations  Europe banks have total deposits of Euro 8 trillion including euro 6 trillion in retail deposit Govt raises Custom duty on gold by 2 % (22/1/2013)  Year          Gold import ($ billion) 2008-09 21.30 2009-10 28.80 2010-11 40.70 2011-12 56.50 2012-13 38.00 Gold has become Rs. 350 per 10 g more costly In 2011 India imported 969 tonnes of gold and 604 tonnes till september 2012 Rs. 11674 crores of gold is held by ETF mutual funds Gold ETF allowed to deposit physical gold with banks RBI raises FII limit in bonds (25/1/2013) BS  Current account deficit 5.4 % of GDP  FII can invest now $ 25 billion in G sec from earlier $ 20 billion  FII can invest now $ 50 billion in Corporate debt instruments including sub limit of $ 25 billion for infra bonds  Long term investors include Sovereign wealth funds, multilateral agencies, pension funds, foreign central banks Regulating IFA (24/1/2013)  79000 odd Independent Financial Advisors are     there Rs. 7,00,000 crore mutual fund industry is there As on September 30, 2012 there are 86,240 AMFI registration number holders Out of these 79636 are individuals and 6601 are corporate Besides these there are 45,932 corporate employees registered with AMFI as corporate ARN holders SEBI guidelines for Advisors (24/1/2013)  All advisors to be registered with SEBI within 6 months  Registration valid for 5 years, renewable on payment of fee  Rs. 15000 registration fee for individuals, firms and Rs. 1,05,000 for corporate bodies  Insurance agent, AMFI registered MF distributor, pension advisor, solicitors, CA, ICWA, Acturaires and Fund managers NEED NOT REGISTER SEBI guidelines for Advisors (24/1/2013)  Minimum qualification of Post graduate degree or diploma in finance or related fields  Graduate with minimum 5 years of experience in financial product advise  Individual and partnership firm need networth of Rs. 1 lakh and corporate bodies Rs. 25 lakh  Disclosure like business plan, risk profiling, infrastructure details, distribution service offered, declaration that they will not receive any other remuneration from third party products Repo Rate Cut (29/1/2013)  t has cut repo rate—the rate at which it lends to banks—by 25 basis points to 7.75 percent and the cash reserve ratio—the portion of deposits that banks have to compulsorily keep with the RBI—by 25 basis points to 4 percent.  This will infuse Rs. 18000 crores into the market GST road clear (29/1/2013)  The center will pay Rs. 34000 crores to the states for their compensation  GST will set to rollout from FY15 Tax cut help low & middle income earners (4/2/2013)  A person earning Rs. 3 lakh in 2003-04 was taxed at 14.1 % now the effective tax rate is 3.4%  Individual with earning of Rs. 8 lakh was paying 32.5 % tax in 2003-04 now pays 29.1 % China post record capital financial account deficit (4/2/2013)  Since 1998, for the first time China has recorded $ 117 billion gap annual gap in financial account deficit in 2012  China forex reserves is $ 3.31 trillion which is the highest in world.. MF industry waiting for budget (4/2/2013)  Total AUM Rs. 7.80 lakh crore  60 lakh folios decline in last 3 years  MF wants tax benefit in long term investment through pension plans  Changes in IRDA act to let insurance companies invest through MF FII net buyers in January 2013 (4/2/2013)  FII have purchased net shares worth Rs. 22000 crores in January 2013  This is the seventh consecutive month where the FII have been net buyers Companies aim to reduce debt (5/2/2013)  Combined debt of 10 large business houses have jumped fivefold in five years to Rupees 5.39 trillion at end of march 2012.  10 groups are Adani Enterprise, GMR, GVK,Vedanta,Essar, Videocon, Anil Ambani,Jaypee, JSW and Lanco  These groups account for 20 %of all bank loans in country  Combined debt of BSE 100 companies was Rupees 65 trillion at end of fiscal 2012 Companies aim to reduce debt (5/2/2013)  Reliance Anil Ambani had total debt of Rs. 86,700 crore  Air India has debt of Rs. 47226 crores IMF estimates for 2012 GDP (5/2/2013)  Countries  Emerging markets  Developing Asia  China  India  ASEAN-5 2012-2013 5.10% 6.60% 7.80% 4.50% 5.70% Tata pours Dividends (5/2/2013)  Tata group firms including Tata motors,Tata Global Beverages, Tata Chemicals, Tata Steel, TCS have proposed a dividend of Rs. 7200 crores in 2012 compared to Rs. 1200 crores in 2011.  Out of proposed Rs. 4200 crore has been paid out.  In 2011-12 the PAT of Jaguar Land Rover grew 45 % over previous fiscal to Rs. 12000 crores which was much higher than company indian business Etihad to complete Jet Airways deal (5/2/2013)  Etihad Airways is likely to take 24% stake in Jet Airways by paying Rs. 1800 crores.  This would be first deal after sector was opened for FDI for foreign airlines in Indian airlines Govt Stumped at Decade low GDP (8/2/2013)  Central Statistical Organization has forecasted Indian GDP at 5 %  This is lowest forecast in one decade  Govt Borrowing limit Rs. 5.7 lakh crore which is already reached 90% NTPC offer for sale (8/2/2013)  NTPC third largest sale Rs. 11430 Crores in equity marekt after Coal India Rs. 15000 crores and Rel power Rs. 11500 crores  IN NTPC Govt of Singapore, Reliance MF, SBI and LIC have invested Transfer Pricing targeted by Tax authority (8/2/2013)  Govt hopes to Raise Rs. 1 Lakh crore by taxes through Cross Border deals. Last year Directorate of Transfer Pricing collected Rs. 66000 crores and this year they eye more Rs. 44000 crore so total Rs. 1 lakh crore. Elements like “Marketing intangibles-expenditure incurred for building brand equity in india will be taken for tax FII finds P notes attractive (8/2/2013)  FII registration were 1767 in Dec 2011  FII registraion fell to 1755 in Dec 2012  P-note value climbs 48% in Dec 2012 to Rs. 1.02 lakh crore  FII pay 1 % brokerage in P notes as against 0.30 paise in direct route  P notes avoid uncertainty over taxation of their income. FII finds P notes attractive (8/2/2013)  Month  April 12  May 12  June 12  July 12  Aug 12  Sep 12  Oct 12  Nov 12  Dec 12 Equity+Debt Pnote Exclude FO (Rs Crore) 86785 66472 69523 68677 68450 82379 95536 94658 101666 ECB and Bank of England keep rates low (8/2/2013)  European Central Bank has kept the rates low at 0.75%  Bank of England has kept the rate low at 0.5% DLF coming out of wounds (13/2/2013)  DLF debt of Rs. 23,000 crores  DLF has sold Aman resorts for Rs. 1650 crores, NTC mill for Rs. 2727 crores and part of wind power business for Rs. 282 crores  DLF debt likely to come down to Rs. 18500 crores  Promoters to sell 4.7% stake which would bring down debt to Rs. 16500 crores Tax-GDP Ratio (Dalal Street Feb 1124, 2013 issue page 58)  Country  Mexico  United Kingdom  Korea  India  USA Tax to GDP ratio % 13.7 24.8 18.1 11.48 17.5 Inflation cools to 3 year low (15/2/2013)  Month         Inflation % August 2012 8.01 Sep 2012 8.07 Oct 2012 7.32 Nov 2012 7.24 Dec 2012 7.18 Jan 2013 6.62 WPI drops to 3 year low 4.1% level of core inflation, a key measure of demand (core inflation means rate of price increase in non-food manufactured products – a measure of demand and tracked closely by RBI) Corporates in Mess (15/2/2013)  Suzlon incurred loss of Rs. 1154 crores  Total debt in company Rs. 14000 crores  Tata motors net profit falls by 52% to Rs. 1600 crores FII buys huge in 2013 (22/2/2013)  FII have purchased shares worth Rs. 43,854 crores ($ 8.14 billion)  In 2012, FII have bought Rs.1,28,359 crores ($ 24 billion) RBI banking license history (22/2/2013)  1993-94 RBI issued license to 10 private banks  2003-04 Two private banks YES bank and Kotak Mahindra bank got license  SUCCES stories HDFC bank, ICICI bank, Axis bank, IndusInd bank, Kotak and Yes bank RBI banking license history (22/2/2013)  LAGGARDS IDBI bank and DCB bank  Failures GTB merged with OBC, Centurion bank with HDFC, Times bank with HDFC Bank Economic survey (28/2/2013)  From 2007 the average return given by various asset class  Gold 27%  Nifty 7.3%  Saving deposit 8.2%  Tax to GDP ratio had reached its peak at 11.9% of GDP in 2007-08 GDP growth in last 4 years (28/2/2013)  Year GDP %  2009-10 8.6  2010-11 9.3  2011-12 6.2  2012-13 5.0  2013-14 projected 6.1 to 6.7 GMR Cash starved (5/3/2013)  GMR company had sold its entire stake of 70% in infra project in inland nation of Singapore  The objective is to reduce debt level from the payment received  GMR had debt of Rs. 37,000 crores as on December 2012 Dividend Distribution Tax (5/3/2013)  Dividend Distribution tax on debt mutual funds have been increased to 25 % from 12.5% Govt Minority stake sale(5/3/2013) (Rs. Crores)  Disinvestment done 2012-13  NBCC Rs. 124 crores  Hindustan Copper Rs. 807 crore  NMDC Rs. 5973 crore  Oil India Rs. 3141 crore  NTPC Rs.11457 crore  Due in March 2013  RCF Rs. 300 crores  Nalco Rs. 1350 crores  SAIL Rs. 3000 crores Loan incentive to help housing loans (7/3/2013)  Rs 30 – 40 lakh category houses would benefit     most from budget announcement Out of 5,83,513 unsold apartments acorss country 39% cost less than Rs. 35 lakhs In NCR 50 % of flats are in this range In mumbai 30 % are in this range The budget proposal to increase interest deduction from 1.5 lakh to 2.5 lakh covers 95 % of interest paid in one year Loan incentive to help housing loans (7/3/2013)  In 2012, 42% of the homes sold were in category of Rs. 30 to 40 lakhs with average loan being taken Rs. 25 lakhs  At current interest rates of 10.5% a year, total EMI on 25 lakh loan is Rs. 3 lakh  2.5 lakh interest allowed as deduction which covers 95% of interest  Earlier interest deduction was 57% RBI very cautious on Infra loans (8/3/2013)  Rs. 6925 crores lending to Infra sector  Rs. 3874 crores lending to power sector  Rs. 7000 crores stuck in KFA  Rs. 5000 cr debt to Deccan Chronicle most of which had to be written off  ICRA reports says current NPA 3.6% at end of Sep 12 which would rise to 6.5% to 7.5% by June 30, 2015 India Airport Details (11/3/2013)  How airports boost regional economy  Every $ 100 of airport expenditure produces $ 325 beefits  100 additional jobs generate 610 economy wide jobs  Encourages access to goods and services  % rise in tax revenues India Airport Details (11/3/2013)  Country  USA  Brazil  Russia  Indonesia  South Africa  China  UK  No of airports 15000 4105 1218 676 567 497 462 India 456 (33% functional)  AAI planning to operationalise 100 more airports by 2020  Out of 125 aiports of AAI 87 are loss making (Losses Rs. 950 crores Govt to scrap or ease FDI caps (11/3/2013)  Sector            FDI cap (%) Multibrand retail 51 Defense 26 Airlines 49 Pvt Security agency 49 Telecom 74 Asset Reconstruction com 49 Banking pvt sector 74 Credit information com 49 Commodity exchanges 49 Infra cos in securities market 49 Insurance 26 Wealth Destroyers (18/3/2013)  Company         From 2008 % fall in mkt cap DLF - 74% R COM - 91.2% Sterlite Industries -53.7% Suzlon Energy -94.7% GMR Infra -83.3% Tata Communication -70.0% Aban Offshore -93.2% GVK power & infra -84.6% RBI cuts rate (19/3/2013)  RBI has cut Repo Rate to 7.5%  The Reverse Repo Rate is 6.5 %  CRR is kept at 4 % Banks urged to pump up (1/4/2013)  215 projects are stalled with investment of Rs. 7 lakh crore  Banks have lend Rs. 54000 crores  Indian economy grew at 4.5% GDP lowest in 15 quarters  During march 2013 meet banks had sanctioned Rs. 43000 crores for 126 projects which are estimated Rs. 3.55 lakh crore Interest cost hurts (1/4/2013)  Interest outgo as percentage of Profit before interest and tax or PBIT has increased to 29% in Dec 2012  It was 14 % in Dec 2009. The ratio has remained above 20% for last six quarters. CAD hurts Indian Economy (1/4/2013)  Indian economy Current Account Deficit has touched 6.7% which is very high and disturbing  The estimated was 6.4% Mutual fund investors decline (8/4/2013)  In FY 13, 34 lakhs individual investors closed their folios  The total number of folios have fallen from 4.64 crores to 4.30 crores  The number of investor folios for equity schemes fell by 42.5 lakhs while debt funds increased of 8 lakhs RGESS fails to light up (8/4/2013)  RGESS collected Rs. 51.67 crores  Total number of demat accounts 21800  The number of demat accounts open for RGESS is only 2.9% of total demat accounts during the same period. Corporate Governance issues (8/4/2013)  Companies Prices  Educomp Rs. 757 to Rs. 66  HDIL Rs. 540 to Rs. 48  SKS Micro Rs. 1000 to Rs. 127  BHEL Rs. 550 to Rs. 176  Crompton Greaves Rs. 300 to Rs. 91  KS oil Rs. 84 to Rs. 3  Everon Rs. 655 to Rs. 60 Corporate Governance issues (8/4/2013)  HDIL – Promoters sold their shares to buy land, 96% of promoter holding was pledged  KS Oil – Promoters evaded taxes, entire promoter holding was pledged  Everon – Promoter was arrested on charges of paying bribe to income tax officer to hide income of Rs. 100 crores Bilcare declared defaulter (9/4/2013)  United Bank of India has claim of Rs. 51 crore on bilcare  Stock was Rs. 1830 In January 2008 and not it is at Rs. 101  Rakesh junjunwala has 8 % stake in the company in december 2012 US and Japan pulling funds (9/4/2013)  Fund managers have pulled out $ 951 million from india  From BRIC countries they have pulled out $ 777 million  Country Funds ($ million) Jan-Mar 13  USA  Japan  West Europe  China  Brazil  Russia  India  Emerging Mkts  Africa +53925 +10166 +3206 +1904 - 1333 - 698 - 951 - 654 - 47 FII invest in US and Japan (16/4/2013)  FII have invested $ 66 billion in the last 3 months into US and Japan markets Inflation below 6 % (16/4/2013)  WPI has come to 5.96% in March as compared to 6.84% in February  Core inflation at 3.4% down from 3.7% in February  Food inflation at 8.73% down from 11.38% in February  IIP at 0.6% in February as against expectation of -1.2% Trade Deficit falls (18/4/2013)  India’s trade deficit reduced by 50 % to $ 10 billion  Biggest fall in 9 months  Due to fall in gold prices FM speaks data on CNBC 24/4/2013  FII have invested $ 11.8 billion in 2013 till date  Indian Saving rate 31 % in 2012  It was 36% in previous year  CAD to be near 5 % in FY 14  Reviving investments key to growth  GST to be surely done  Fall in Crude and Gold welcome to reduce the CAD India Funds and ETF pull out money (24/4/2013)  From January 2013 to March 2013 Global funds have     invested $ 66 billion in US and Japan, Western Europe They pulled out shares worth $ 1.2 billion in march quarter US Corporate dividend yield is 2.56 % while its 10 year G sec yield is 1.7% Japan corporate dividend yield is 1.56% while 10 year bond yield is sub 1 % Foreign Fund managers wants action and not words Etihad Jet Airway Deal (25/4/2013)  Jet Airways has sold a minority stake to fast-growing Abu Dhabi-based carrier Etihad Airways for Rs 2,060 crore (roughly USD 379 million) after months of negotiations.  India's largest airline by market share said in a brief statement to the stock exchange that its board approved the allotment to Etihad of 27.3 million shares at Rs 754.74 each on a preferential basis.  The price represents a 31.7 percent premium to Jet's closing share price on Tuesday . Indian markets were closed on Wednesday.  If completed, the investment would be the first by a foreign carrier into an Indian airline since the country relaxed ownership rules in September and allowed foreign carriers to buy up to 49 percent in local carriers, which are battling stiff competition and high operating costs. Etihad gives soft loan to jet (2/5/2013)  Etihad has given $ 300 million soft loan to Jet at 3 % rate of interest  Jet as of now pay 14 % annual interest on loans  Jet has debt of $ 2.1 billion as on December 2012  Jet annually pays Rs. 1000 crores as interest amount  Jet has total debt of Rs. 12000 crores FII flows dips in April 2013  Month  January  February  March  April FII Flows (Rs. Crores) 22,244 22,122 11660 4785 ECB cuts rate (3/5/2013)  European Central Bank has cut its benchmark rate at 0.50% from 0.75%  FED has 0.25% interest rates PMI India falls (3/5/2013)  Purchase Managers Index has falled to 50.1 in March  PMI above 50 and rising shows economy expanding  PMI below 50 shows economy contracting Bharti Airtel Still in losses (3/5/2013)  13th Straight quarter and fall in profits continue  Total debt in Bharti Airtel Rs. 65000 crores which is hurting its balance sheet  Profits came down by 50 % FII increase stake while DII reduce (3/5/2013)  FII holding in sectors  Sector  Auto  BFSI  FMCG  IT services  Oil and Gas  Pharma FII holding 9% 33% 9.2% 14.5% 10.1% 5.3% DII holding (3/5/2013)  Sector FII holding  BFSI 22.8%  Engineering 8.1%  FMCG 18.2%  IT services 9.4%  Metals Mining 5.1%  Oil and Gas 16.5% Returns of asset classes (6/5/2013) (1979-2012)  Asset class  Inflation  Fixed Deposit  Postal schemes  Gold  Equity Return % 8.1 8.8 8.7 11.1 17 Teledensity Falling (13/5/2013)  Teledensity – number of telephone connections for every hundred individuals living within an area  In june 2012 it was 79.6 and now in Feb 13 it is 72.9  ARPU for GSM has come down to Rs.98 from Rs. 366 in March 2006  ARPU for CDMA has come down to Rs. 80 from Rs. 256 in March 2006 Goodwill Hits (14/5/2013)  2006 Tata steel acquired Corus for $ 13 billion  2013 February consolidated loss of Tata Steel at Rs. 763 crores  2009- Hindalco wrote off $ 1.5 billion goodwill for Novelis  Dec 2012- Arcelor Mittal wrote of $ 4.5 billion in Europe  March 2013 – Tokyo Steel took $ 1.3 billion impairment charge  Indian Blues  May 2010 – Vodafone Plc takes $ 3.4 billion impairment hit on India operations  Feb 2012 – Daiichi Sankyo takes Rs. 136 crores write off on Ranbaxy Trade deficit widens (14/5/2013)  Trade Deficit widens to $ 17.8 billion  Last year it was $ 14 billion  It increased to more buying of Gold as the prices have crashed Inflation falls to 40 month low (14/5/2013)  Inflation has come down to 4.89%  It was at 5.86%  It is at 40 month low which gives RBI room to reduce rates  Core inflation is at 2.8%  Food inflation down 6.1%  Repo rate still at 7.25% and reverse repo at 6.25% while CRR at 4 % Tata steel may cell Corus part (21/5/2013)  Tata Steel has been struggling to turn its European arm profitable since the time of take over five years ago. The company took an impairment hit of USD 1.6 billion on its FY13 balance-sheet on the back of weak environment in Europe.  By unlocking value of these assets the company could raise around Rs 4,000 crore   The company had sold Teesside Cast Products (TCP) for around USD 467 million in 2011. Tata Steel has around 4.2 billion pounds of debt and another 570 million pounds is due in FY14 and FY15 and hence further disposals would help ease the burden on the wider group, Moody’s noted. Tata steel may cell Corus part (21/5/2013)  Between 2007 till date, Tata Steel has seen 30 percent fall in steel demand in Europe. In past few years the company has taken several austerity measures to cut down growing losses of European operations. Rel Infra scraps projects (21/5/2013)  Reliance Infrastructure has scrapped projects worth Rs. 20,000 crores  This is due to delay in Governmental clearances Govt Reduces FII withholding tax (22/5/2013)  In Government bonds and securities for long term do not need PAN Card  Investments between June 1 2013 to 31st may 2015.  Withholding tax reduced to 5 %  QFI and FII will benefit from the same Global Stimulus continues(23/5/2013) Money control  Bank of Japan is buying $ 75 billion of assets per month  US is buying $ 85 billion of assets per month  Japan's Nikkei witnessed its biggest fall in two years when it closed 7.3 percent lower on Thursday with 1100 points fall and closed for trading  China PMI at 49.6 at 7 months low Larsen & Tubro in problem (23/5/2013)  Rs. 17000 crores worth of orders written off  Another Rs. 6000 crores of orders likely to be slow  Slow down in infrastructure projects, high costs and rising interest burden are the main reason  Net profit fall 7 % to 1788 crores. Real GDP (23/5/2013)  Year  2002-03  2003-04  2004-05  2005-06  2006-07  2007-08  2008-09  2009-10  2010-11  2011-12  2012-13 Real GDP % 4.0 8.1 7.0 9.5 9.6 9.3 6.7 8.6 9.3 6.2 5.0 Fiscal deficit as % of GDP (23/5/2012)  Year fiscal deficit  2007-08 2.5  2008-09 6.0  2009-10 6.5  2010-11 4.8  2011-12 5.7  2012-13 (RE) 5.2  2013-14 (BE) 4.8 Sticky loan rises (23/5/2013)  Bank of India gross NPA rose 48% in FY13 to Rs. 8765 crores over a year ago  IDBI gross NPA has rised by 41% to Rs. 6449 crores GDP reduces to ten year low (31/5/2013) money control  GDP Indian economy expanded by 4.8 percent in the quarter that ended in March, in-line with consensus. The FY13 GDP has also come in line with government estimates of 5 percent, which is lowest in a decade. HSBC PMI confirms slowdown (4/6/2013)  Headline PMI dropped 0.9 points to 50.1 in May with the key worry being output trends (i.e. current indicators) which fell 1.6 points to 48.6. Forward-looking indicators, i.e. those for future production, saw mixed trends with new orders declining (-1.8 points to 50.5) but new export orders rising (+2.9 points to 54)  A weak PMI, lower eight-core growth (2.3 percent in April vs. the revised 3.2 percent in March 2013) and muted Q4 GDP growth (4.8 percent), point to a significantly bleaker growth outlook. FII sold highest shares (20/6/2013)  FII sold shares worth Rs. 2136 crores on june 20, highest in two years.  Fed said they are going to stop QE 3  Earlier FII had sold May 13, 2011 ( Rs 3706.4 crore)  Currently world has witnessed US QE3, London LTRO (Long Term Refinance Operations) and Japan Bond Buying Programme FII sales vs Rupee Level  Date  20/6/2013  29/3/2012  9/8/2011  5/8/2011  25/8/2011 FII Sales -2136 -1299 -1961 -1610 -1494 Rupee/$ 59.70 59.14 45.17 44.80 46.12 SEZ policy under scanner (24/6/2013)  Total SEZ approved so far 577  170 operate across India and 389 still not notified  Total jobs created as on March 31, 2013 is 10,74,904 jobs  Exports from SEZ rose to 30 % to $ 88 billion in 2012-13 from $ 68 billion last year  Minimum Alternate Tax was charged at 20.96% on developers and units  Dividend Distribution tax at 17% FII and QFI to be merged (26/6/2013)  Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) and Qualified Foreign Investor (QFI) to be merged into one entity called as Foreign Portfolio Investor (FPI) SEBI tightens buy back norms (26/6/2013)  New Old  Minimum buyback 50 % 25%  Minimum period 6 months 12 months  Post buyback 1 yr no cap raise 6 mon  If company fails to buy back 50 % then company has to forfeit 2.5 % of total amount earmarked CAD Falls to low level (28/6/2013)  Year  Q1 2012  Q2 2012  Q3 2012  Q4 2012  Q1 2013  Q2 2013  Q3 2013  Q4 2013 CAD 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.4 3.9 5.4 6.7 3.6 Portugal Crisis (4/7/2013)  17 countries EURO zone  Portugal facing problem over implementing Austerity measures  Portugal main PSI 20 index plunged 6.4% on Wednesday  10 year bond yield to 7.74% indicating lack of confidence in investors Top 30 bad loans make for half of NPA (4/7/2013)  In foreign banks top 30 non performing loans account for 84 % of gross NPA as on March 2013  For PSU banks, top 30 NPA account for 39.7% of gross NPA. Bank of India, Andhara Bank, Punjab & Sind bank, Corporation bank have more than 50 % of gross NPA  In case of Private bank, top 30 banks have 34.6% of gross NPA and for old private banks it 66.4% of gross NPA Service PMI falls (4/7/2013)  HSBC Service PMI falls to 51.7 from may reading of 53.6  The falling in the reading shows that service sector Company with Debt Distress (4/7/2013)  Company           Rs. Crores Jindal Steel 14372 KFA 8030 Suzlon 6416 Electrosteel 5232 Hindustan Construction 4574 Bharti Shipyard 3862 Leela Ventures 3643 GTL infra 3190 Tulip Telecom 2175 Gammon India 2706 Rupee slide (10/7/2013)  Rs 38,700 crores Daily average turnover of the futures currreny market on NSE in june (up 47%)  Indian debt market FII sold $ 5.4 billion in June and $ 1.1 billion in July  Oil companies will buy dollars only from one bank and not from multiple institutions  Margin increased in currency futures on non bank players and new positions  Ban on banks for proprietary trading Projects Stalled root cause (10/7/2013)  341 projects are stalled  10.5 lakh crore is at stake  This needs to be looked seriously  No investment activity taking place US Economy Recovering (10/7/2013)  US unemployment rate is 4 year low at 7.6%  Economy to grow at 1.8% GDP as compared to earlier estimate of 2.4% US Proposal to reduce banks lending power (11/7/2013)  Federal Reserve, office of the Comproller of the Currency and the Federal Deposit Insurance Corp. are planning to bring law to increase the leverage ratio of banks to 5 % and for FDIC to 6 % from current 3 %.  This means banks should have more capital to protect their asset side than what they keep currently US Proposal to reduce banks lending power (11/7/2013)  Banks Shortage/ Surplus  J P Morgan - $15.6 billion  Morgan stanley +$14.1 billion  Citigroup -$ 13.2 billion  Goldman sach - $ 4.9 billion  Bank of America + $ 3.6 billion WPI inflation (15/7/2013)  WPI inflation at 4.86%  Core inflation at 2 %  Food inflation at 9.74% vs 8.25% per month RBI raises cost of borrowing (16/7/2013)  Repo Rate is at 7.25%  Marginal Standing Bank Rate raised to 200 bps to 10.25%  Rs 12000 crore bonds Central Bank will buy on thrusday  Rs. 75000 crores cap on bank borrowing  This will raise the cost of borrowing for the consumers Walmart stores (16/7/2013)  Country  Mexico  Central America  UK  Brazil  Japan  China  Canada  Africa  Chile  Argentina No of stores 2353 642 565 558 438 393 379 377 329 94 Gitanjali Gems under scan (25/7/2013)  Total debt in company Rs. 4300 crores  Total sales of company Rs. 16000 crores  Promoter Mehul Choksi Unique Client Code has been disabled  Stock has come down in circuit from Rs. 600 to Rs. 94  Why Retail investor runs away from market ? US has new way to calculate GDP (25/7/2013)  US GDP was first calculated in 1929  Now US GDP calculation would have Research & Development as Investment and would be accounted for LIC investments raise eyebrows again (30/7/2013)  Company CMP % fall from 52 wk H  Zylog system 14 95.55  Core Edu 23 93.13  Gitanjali gems 80 87.55  ABG shipyard 269 35.17  Pipavav Defen 68 30.20  Mandhana Ind 234 24.24 FII sell record stocks in June and July (31/7/2013)  FII have sold Rs. 17000 crores or $ 2.9 billion in June and july 2013  Highest in last 5 year june and july  RBI has reduced GDP forecast to 5.5% from 5.7% Global Fund managers sell on india (31/7/2013)  Main reasons  Slowdown in economic growth  Threat of rating downgrade  Concerns over rising fiscal and CAD deficit  Depreciating rupee  Fading hopes of rate cuts  Absence of big ticket reforms  Uncertain political scenario NSEL stops one day forward contract (1/8/2013)  NSEL has suspended all the trading in one day forward contract ) suspended trading in all one-day forward contracts  The action taken by NSEL basically translates to almost all volumes or turnover of the exchange coming to a standstill or near zero. E-series contracts do not have much volumes on the exchange. It is hardly Rs 3-4 crore and the turnover of the exchange has anyways fallen from roughly around Rs 800-900 crore a day to nearly Rs 300 crore because of the actions taken by the Ministry of Consumer Affairs.  On July 23, NSEL had reduced delivery, payment and settlement period of all contracts traded on the exchange to less than 11 days (T+10 or less), wherever settlement schedule was extending beyond 11 days. NSEL had also decided to convert all the existing contract on trade for trade basis, which means that every trade must result into delivery.  “The exchange had reduced cost of transaction in respect of all these contacts by 80 percent. The cumulative cost of transaction, delivery and warehouse receipt transfer was earlier Rs 100 per one lakh of turnover, which has been brought down to Rs 20 per Rs 1 lakh of turnover,” according to a release issued on July 23. HIGH CAD  Current Account Deficit (CAD) is USD 80 billion, between Foreign Institutional Investor (FII), Foreign Direct Investment (FDI) and External Commercial Borrowings (ECB) it would not be a problem at all in bridging that. 7 months have passed this year and we have got USD 20 billion FII plus FDI put together. FDI retail norms eased (2/8/2013) Existing norms Cabinet approved change  30% of procurement value should  At least 30% of procurement value be from Indian small units with upto $ 1 million investment in plant and machinery  Units outgrowing “small industry” status ineligible for fulfillment of mandatory local sourcing  Retail outlets to be set up only in cities with population of over 10 lakhs and cover 10 sq km around urban agglomerations. should be from Indian small units with upto $ 2 million investment in plant and machinery  “Small Industry” requirement only at the time of first engagement. Such industry will qualify for sourcing even if it outgrows investment of $ 2 million  States free to decide on the city for the location of front end sores irrespective of population PMI service index crashes (6/8/2013)  HSBC Service Business Activity has fallen from 51.7 to 47.9 in July 2013  This is the lowest reading since April 2009  Clear sign of Economy slowdown  Service Sector contributes 55% in GDP BSE 100 COMPANIES DEBT RISES (7/8/2013)  BSE 100 companies (Excluding banks and financials) total debt has increased by 75% to Rs 14.5 lakh crore  Operating profits up only by 25 %  IF FMCG and IT which are cash rich removed then numbers still worse YTD returns Global markets (7/8/2013)  Brazil  Russia  Sensex  Nifty  China - 19.74% - 19.05 % - 5.30% - 7.61% -14.82% PE Investors trapped (12/8/2013)  Company PE Year stock price  Gokuldas Blackstone 07 -90%  Punj lloyd warbug pincu 07 - 91%  NCC Blackstone 07 -90%  Allsec Carlyle 07 -90%  Great offshore Carlyle 07 -95% International Financial Mafia in commodities trade (12/8/2013)  Pay Rupees equal to $ 10,000 and trade upto $ 2,00,000 or 20 times  Bucket shops in Mumbadevi and Chira Bazar  Rs. 1200 is total cost including brokerage and CTT in one lot of gold in MCX while in Dabba it is Rs. 100  Margins in International Exchanges are 6 % to 10% as against 10 to 20 % in Indian exchanges International Funds give returns (12/8/2013) (1 year %)  ICICI pru US Bluechip           37.42% Franklin US Opportunity 36.04% DSPBR US Flexible 33.42% JP Morgan ASEAN Equity 30.74% Motilal Most Nasdaq 27.87% Birla International Equity 26.4% JP Morgan Greater China 24.67% Kotak Global Emerging Mkt 20.66% DSPBR World Energy 15% DSPBR world Agriculture 13.37% Domestic Large & Multi cap have given 3.44% 0.02% Mid cap and small cap crash (13/8/2013)  Sensex down by 2.5% in 2013  Mid cap down by 23 % and small cap down by 28%  Globally DAX Mid cap up 33 % and FTSE small cap p 35% and S&P 600 Small cap up 31% IIP crashes (13/8/2013)  IIP for June came to -2.2 %  IIP for May revised downward to -2.8%  CPI at 9.64% in July  Car sales down for 7th successive month Gold Import duty rises  Govt has raised the import duty for the third time  From 8 to 10 %  This makes yellow metal costly by Rs. 600 per 10 grams Inflation rises (14/8/2013)  The WPI July inflation came to 5.79%  WPI June was 4.86%  Inflation again rising its head  Food Articles Inflation At 11.91% Vs 9.74% (MoM) Dollar vs Rupee  In 1947 1 $ = 1 Rs.  In 1947 10 gram gold = Rs. 88.62  In 2013 1$ = Rs. 61  In 2013 10 gram gold = Rs. 29000 50% of BSE shares below book value (19/8/2013)  Company  Indian oil  BHEL  RCOM  Tata steel  SAIL  JSW Steel  Sesa Goa  Rel Infra  Hindalco Mkt Price 209 105 118 235 40 487 130 325 93 Bookvalue 239 130 159 582 103 802 147 747 175 Infra Projects worth 1.1 lakh crore cleared (19/8/2013)  Power Projects Rs. 83772  4 road projects Rs. 4359  3 Railway projects Rs. 7103  BPCL Petro Distilary Rs. 1419  OCL Iron & Steel Rs. 1109  Delhi Airport Rs. 12000  Total projects Rs. 1,09,000 crore Companies that gain from rupee fall (21/8/2013)  Company Rs. Crore gain wgt in Sensex  TCS  Infosys  Wipro  Bajaj auto  Dr. Reddy  BHEL  Cipla 5775 3677 2748 1123 872 869 574 6 8.17 1.83 1.69 1.38 0.54 1.32 NPA in PSU Rise (22/8/2013)  PSU Mar 12  Gross NPA 3.17  Priority Sector NPA 4.93  NPA other priority 5.22  Gross NPA Retail 2.72  NPA Corporates 2.65 Mar 13 3.78 5.42 4.66 2.37 3.44 Tax collection in different slabs (22/8/2013)  2011 – 2012 Tax (Crore)  0-5 lakhs 15010  5-10 lakhs 21976  10-20 lakhs 17858  Over 20 lakhs 93229 % of total 10.4 14.8 12.1 63.0 Food Security Bill (27/8/2013)  Food Security Bill to cover 67 % of the population  The total subsidy burden would be Rs. 1,24,000 crore CAD a challenge (27/8/2013)  Last fiscal CAD was $ 88 billion  This fiscal target is to reduce it to $ 70 billion  Gold imports have come down by $ 1012 billion PE funds trapped (27/8/2013) in $ million and year 2007 of investments  Company Amt invt Current val % chg  Suzlon 25 0.26 -98  ICSA india 52 0.66 -98  K S oil 104 2.86 -97  Shiv Vani 25 0.55 -97  Great offshore 41 1.30 -96  Jai Balaji ind 69 2.18 -96  Nagarjun con 150 7.91 -94 Key stats about Indian corporate sector (28/8/2013) Delhi IIFT  Parameters      2007 2013 Net Debt 0.33 060 EBIDTA has gone up 14% but interest cost gone up by 30% Interest coverage ratio was 10.5x in 2007 which is reduced to 4.6x in 2013 Shareholders Equity has reduced to 18% but net debt has gone up by 31 % FII hold 48% of free float market cap Indian Economy mess (money control 4/8/2013)      In 2007-08 the total deficit was Rs.1,26,000 crore currently it is Rs. 5,42,000 crore deficit Indian total forex reserve $250 billion (excluding gold reserves) and debt $390 billion (31st march 2013) 60% of the loan to be repaid next year India would not be able to give back more than 2 $ for every 3 $ owed The drastic fall in the CAD for January-March period to 3.6 percent from 6.7 percent in the previous quarter is a signal not of a correcting CAD, but a slowing economy Indian Economy mess (money control 4/8/2013)  The second negative is the obverse side of selling grains at Re 1, Rs 2 and Rs 3 a kg to the poor. The poor will buy the cheap grain and sell a part of it in the open market which will then be used for higher-protein food (milk, veggies, meat, eggs, etc). Recent food inflation has been caused not by rice or wheat, but protein items. The FSB will thus directly make food inflation worse. Nothing slows down an economy more than inflation.  The only antidote to it is very strong reforms in energy pricing, FDI, labour and land markets.  Large chunks of the public sector need to be sold off-and not just divested piecemeal. Or else we should cut welfare spending drastically. Banks risk of losing Rs. 30,000 crore (5/9/2013)          Company Amout (Rs. Crore) KS oil 2564 KFA 7000 Deccan Chronicle 4000 PSL 3200 MFI(Micro Finance) 7200 Xenitis Infotech 400 The above companies restructuring have failed As on march 2013, loans worth Rs. 2,29,013 crore of 401 companies restructured Pension Bill passed in Lok Sabha (5/9/2013)  The total corpus is Rs. 35000 crores  8 fund managers will manage the fund  3 funds options with varying degree of investments in equity, bonds  26 state governments have joined the scheme  All central government employees who joined after 1st jan 2004 will be in this pension scheme FII make come back (11/9/2013)  From June to August FII sold Rs. 23000 crores shares  In september FII so far have bought Rs. 5000 crore of shares BRICS strength (11/9/2013)  World GDP  BRICS  US  EU  Japan  Others 21% 22% 23% 8% 26% BRICS Data India 13% China 55.1% Brazil 16.2% Russia 13.1% South Africa 2.6%  Debt to GDP ratio of Eurozone 92.2 % and USA 103 % ($16.7 trillion debt in USA) $ 100 Billion fund for BRICS (11/9/2013)  $ 100 billion fund has been proposed to be created by BRICS nation  India $ 18 billion  Brazil $ 18 billion  Russia $ 18 billion  China $ 41 billion  South Africa $ 5 billion RBI eases banks borrowings (11/9/2013) money control  The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) said on Tuesday banks can raise funds overseas above 50 percent of their Tier I capital with a minimum maturity of three years and swap these borrowings with the central bank at a concessional rate for one to three years. "The swaps shall be available at a concessional rate of a hundred basis points below the market rate for all fresh borrowing with a minimum tenor of one year and a maximum tenor of three years, irrespective of whether such borrowings are in excess of 50 per cent of their unimpaired Tier I capital or not," the RBI said. Rising Bad loans (18/9/2013)  NPA of PSU banks have become 3.84% in March 2013 as compared to 2.32% in March 2011  26 PSU banks are there  Top 30 NPAs make Rs. 61,123 crore or 39% of their gross NPA accounts. FII back in September (18/9/2013)  FII have invested Rs. 6394 crores in first 15 days of September  Rupee appreciated 8 %  FII were net sellers of Rs. 23000 crores from June to August FII POWER (18/9/2013)  $ 200 Billion of Indian Stocks are owned by FII  $ 37 billion FII have invested in Indian stock market since 2012 WPI inflation high at 6 months (18/9/2013)  WPI inflation is at 6.1%  Six months high BRIC Nations Forex Reserves (20/9/2013)  Brazil $ 371 billion  Russia $ 509 billion  India $ 274 billion  China $ 3.3 trillion India’s FOREX reserve  Year  FY08  FY09  FY10  FY11  FY12  FY13  FY14 Forex Reserves ($ billion) 309.7 252 279.1 304.8 294.4 292 274.8 RBI raises Repo Rate (20/9/2013)  RBI increased repo rate by 25 bps to 7.5 %  The RBI did provide some relief for banks by lowering the marginal standing facility (MSF, an RBI window for short term loans) to 9.5 percent from 10.25 percent.  The CRR was kept at 4%  GAAR to be applicable from April 2016 (27/9/2013)  GAAR to be applicable from 1st April 2016  For those transactions of FII which has tax benefit exceeding Rs. 3 crore CAD widens (1/10/2013)  CAD widens to 4.9% in June Quarter  It was 3.6% in last in Q4  While CAD had touched 6.7% in Q3  Core sector growth at 7 month high  It is at 3.7%  Core sector includes Coal, Crude oil, natural gas, Fertilizer, steel, cement, electricity, Refinery products RBI reduces MSF (8/10/2013)  RBI reduces MSF (Marginal Standing Facility) by 50 bps  From 9.5 % to 9%  Lending to banks by RBI for 7and 14 days as against current practice of 1 day  This will induce liquidity in the system BRIC problems (8/10/2013)  Emerging Markets Central Banks (except China) have       seen outflows worth $ 80 billion around 2 % of reserves Last 4 months, Indonesia has lost around 14 % of central bank reserves Turkey has lost 13 % India RBI has lost 6 % of its reserves India, Brazil, South Africa, Turkey have large current account deficit. India has total fiscal and current account deficit of 10% Emerging Economies need $ 1.5 trillion every year in external funding to meet financial needs including maturity debt. BRICS Problems (8/10/2013)  Many investments have been misdirected or     deliberately wasteful Trophy projects like 2008 Beijing Olympics costing $ 40 billion Russia’s $ 51 billion 2014 Winter Olympics Brazil 2014 football world cup and 2016 Olympics These events absorbed scarce resources at the expense of essential infrastructure. Trade Deficit Reduces (10/10/2013)  Trade Deficit         ($ billion) April 2013 17.78 May 2013 20.1 June 2013 12.2 July 2013 12.2 August 2013 10.9 September 2013 6.8 Exports rose 11.2% in Sep and Imports reduced by 18% Trade Deficit for Q2 is at $ 29.8 billion as against $ 50 billion for Q1 India External Debt to GDP ratio (14/10/2013)  India External Debt to GDP is 22%  India has reserves of $ 280 billion which is 15 % of GDP  In other words, country can pay three fourth of its debt from its forex reserves  India holding in US treasuries is $ 59.1 billion Inflation at 7 month high (15/10/2013)  Inflation was 6.10% in August  Inflation now at 7 month high at 6.46%  The CPI inflation has also gone up to 9.84% from 9.52%  Prices of onion up 323%  Vegetables prices up 89%  Rice prices up 18.76%  Egg, meat prices up 13.37% India gold imports (15/10/2013)  In 2012, we bought 863 tonnes of gold, accounting for 28 per cent of global purchases.  Over the years, we have accumulated 20,000-25,000 tonnes of gold, with a staggering market value of over $1 trillion.  India's current account deficit was roughly about $80 billion in 2012-13. Since gold imports alone amounted to about $60 billion Retail Participation at 10 year low (21/10/2013)  Daily cash market average volume of retail investors is down to Rs. 4615 crore in 2013 which is lowest since 2003  In 2009 retail participation used to be Rs. 13709 crores.  From 2009 to 2013, the retail participation has come down from 65 % to 34% FII back in India  In 16 trading sessions in October, FII have invested Rs. 13000 crores  From January 2013, FII net investment has been Rs. 85000 crore in Indian markets Infra Projects delayed (29/10/2013)  Rs 15 lakh crore worth of industrial projects stalled  136 projects worth Rs 7.14 lakh crore stalled in power sector  Delay largely due to lack of clearances  Gross NPA of banks have reached Rs. 1,36,970 crore (17.43% of total) from Rs. 12,190 crore (4.66% of total ) at end of March 2009 Intensifying pressure on banks RBI raises Repo Rate (30/10/2013)  Repo rate increased by 25 bps which takes it to 7.75 %  Reverse repo rate also increased by 25 bps  Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) reduced by 25 bps to 8.75 % (earlier 9 %) India slips to 134 rank in ease of doing business (30/10/2013)  Ease of doing business             Country 2014 Singapore 1 Hong Kong, China 2 New Zealand 3 USA 4 Denmark 5 Malaysia 6 Korea 7 Georgia 8 Norway 9 UK 10 India 134 2013 1 2 3 4 5 8 6 9 7 11 131 Equity rising but investors missing (11/11/2013)  Sensex at 20,827 but with inflation adjusted it is real     value is 13000 If companies whose prices have crashed much are removed then value of Sensex is only 11500 NSE Mid cap is 22% down and small cap is 58 % down. According to SEBI 500 brokers have shut business since 1st April. 40,000 jobs lost and 12855 sub brokers shut their shop. Trade Data improves (12/11/2013)  Exports up 13.5%  Imports down 14.5%  October Trade deficit at $ 10.55 billion which was last year at $ 20.2 billion  CAD should be less than $ 60 billion  Exports target of $ 325 billion could be achieved Fizz has gone out of India (12/11/2013)  India has gone from “Must invest” to “Must deal with” says pepsi CEO Nooyi  Must Invest means it is a destination and the country is growing  Must deal means there are infrastructure issues, taxation policy is not clear. So people say “Do I have to deal with India”  PEPSI to invest Rs. 33000 crores till 2020 into Indian markets. FATCA to affect fund flows (12/11/2013)  Foreign investors have invested over Rs 92,250 crore or USD 16.7 billion so far this year. This robust flow will be adversely impacted come January 1 when nearly 40% of the foreign flows will be governed by FATCA - Foreign Account Tax compliance Act. To put it simply, FATCA was enacted by the US government to track down offshore investments and earnings of any US citizen. Inflation rises again (13/11/2013)  CPI inflation is at 10.09 % from 9.84 %  Food inflation is at 12%  September IIP is at 2 % (positive surprise) FII flows of 2013 (13/11/2013)  Month  Jan  Feb  March  April  May  June  July  August  September  October  November Net flows of FII (Rs.crore) 22,245 22,122 11,660 5,145 20,678 -10,530 - 5,909 - 6,200 13,158 18,013 1,843 SBI Profit falls 35 % (14/11/2013)  Rs. 6000 crore debt that would be restructured in next 2 quarters  Rs. 9300 crore debt mainly from Infra, power, Iron and steel sectors  SBI total restructured loan book stood at Rs. 52,437 crores. Markets gets Jitters as FII unwind long positions(24/11/2013)  Indian Markets have lost nearly 1000 points over past 7 trading sessions  FII have liquidated long positions worth Rs 4000 crore in index futures in November series Tata opts out of bank license (28/11/2013)  Tata group has withdrawn its application from bank license  Mahindra and Mahindra also had withdrawn its bank application  Out of 26 applicants now 24 are in race Economy bounce backs (3/12/2013)  Core Sector growth crashes -0.6% in October as compared to 8% rise in September  GDP at 4.8 % in Q2 in line with Expectation and Q1 it was 4.6%  CAD to 1.2 % of GDP Inflation jumps (12/12/2013)  CPI inflation at 11.24 %  IIP data at -1.8%  This dampens the chances of reduction in interest rates WPI jumps (16/12/2013)  WPI rises to 7.52%  14 month high  The wholesale price index (WPI) for the month of November shot up to a 14-month high of 7.52 percent from 7 percent in the previous month, led by higher primary, food and fuel prices. The street was largely expecting the November WPI to stay at 7 percent. The September WPI number has also been revised upwards at 7.05 percent from the provision figure of 6.46 percent.  The biggest culprit remains food inflation which accelerated to 19.93 percent in November from 18.19 percent in October. The primary articles inflation for the month rose to 15.92% versus 14.68% in October. Slow Growth in Bank Deposits (17/12/2013)  Central Bank Comfort zone for deposit growth     is 14 % Actual growth of deposits is 12.8% Annual growth of deposits is 16.1% but this due to FCNR(Foreign currency non resident) flows of $ 34 billion Loan growth back at 16% on Nov 29 from 18 % in August Companies going to money market to raise short term funds WPI rises sharply (17/12/2013)  WPI at 14 month high  June 5.16  July       5.85 Aug 6.99 Sep 7.05 Oct 7.00 Nov 7.52 Food inflation at 19.93 % in November This means RBI may increase Repo rate by 25 bps to 8 % Fed Tapper effect (17/12/2013)  Since May 2013, FII have withdrawn $ 13 billion from debt market in India with US announcing Tapering  FII holding in Indian rupee debt is $ 24.6 billion which was $ 37 billion  RBI during this time has gathered $ 34 billion through special deposit scheme for NRI RBI plays it cool (18/12/2013)  Repo rate unchanged at 7.75 percent  CRR at 4 percent of net demand and time liability (NDTL)  Reverse Repo rate under the liquidity adjustment facility (LAF) remained unchanged at 6.75 percent  Marginal Standing Facility (MSF) rate and the Bank Rate stood at 8.75 percent. Mutual funds selling spree (26/12/2013) moneycontrol  Mutual funds had a tough 2013. Volatile equity markets forced domestic funds to focus more on debt market, eyeing higher interest rates.  Domestic mutual funds offloaded shares in November selling equities worth Rs 482 crore in the month to take total outflows from equities to Rs 13,721 crore in 2013 so far.  They have invested Rs 4.3 lakh crore in the debt market in the first 11 months of the year. India Inc Debt trap (26/12/2013)  As of september 2013, there are 3700 listed companies  Total borrowing Rs. 24,00,000 crores  That is quarter of India GDP as per Credit Suisse  Of this, Rs. 8,00,000 crore is with companies whose Interest burden is more than operating profit  Future group reduced its debt to Rs. 3500 crore from Rs. 10,000 crore by exiting financial services and part of retail business  Bharti Airtel raised $ 1.26 billion by selling 5 % stake to Quatar Foundation to reduce its debt of $ 9.69 billion Hedge funds performed in derivatives (26/12/2013) Business line  Hedge funds using equity derivatives strategies delivered        18.2% return from January to November 2013 Return of Sensex has been 6.6% 2011 Hedge funds gave 28.3% 2012 Hedge funds gave 6% 2013 Hedge funds gave 18.2% Other strategies of India focused hedge funds gave -7.1 % negative return Average Global Hedge funds return have given annualized 9.78 % with annualized std deviation of 5.20% since December 1999 to November 2013 In 2013, Global Hedge funds delivered average return of 7.1% while MSCI world index gave 21% return Core sector slows (1/1/2014)  Core sector growth came to 1.7% in November as against 5.8% in Nov 2012  Fiscal Deficit has reached 94% of Budget Estimate  This creates hurdle to achieve Fiscal deficit of 4.8% as targeted by Government New land act comes into force (1/1/2014)  The first day of 2014 saw the 119 year old Land Acquisition law being repealed. The new land acquisition act enacted by the parliament last year comes into force today.  The new law mandates that land will have to be bought at four times the market rate in rural areas and at double the market rate in urban areas.  Thirteen legislations including the National Highways Authority of India Act and the coal Mines Nationalisation Act will have to be amended to reflect the new compensation rates. Angel Investors invest in start ups (2/1/2014)  162 deals closed worth Rs. 3700 crores  45 % of all investments made went to start ups in 2013 as compared to 41% in 2012 and 36% in 2011 FII REACH HEADROOM (3/1/2014)  In last 4 years FII have invested Rs. 3,71,000 crores  More than total investment that come in last 9 years starting 2001.  In last 4 years, barring 2011 average net investmetn buying by FII has been $ 20 billion Brokers shut shop (8/1/2014)  600 brokers have shut their business  18000 people became job less  BSE cash market turnover reduced by 70% which was Rs 11 lakh crore in 2011 is not Rs 3 lakh crore in 2013 december  NSE cash market turnover reduced by 48% from Rs. 35 lakh crore to Rs. 18 lakh crore. FII net sellers (8/1/2014)  The first six trading sessions of 2014 saw FII selling stocks worth Rs. 567 crores  The political uncertainty is creating issue.  Foreign investors also sold cash shares worth Rs 567 crore on Tuesday, totalling sales of Rs 839 crore since Thursday, regulatory and exchange data shows. Retail inflation declines (14/1/2014)  Consumer Price Inflation fell to 9.87% in December from 11.16% in November.  Vegetable inflation eased to 38.76% in December from 61.6% in November.  Interest rates on PF deposit raised to 8.75% Commercial Vehicles space in disaster (15/1/2014) Money control  Despite staring at a debt level of over Rs 5,000 crore Ashok Leyland is being forced to continue big discounts on its heavy duty trucks. Just last week the company unveiled a new state-of-the-art heavy duty truck 'Captain' -- with plans of launching 18 vehicles on the same platform -in an effort to spruce up demand but it has ruled out any cut back on discounting just yet which has hit an all-time high of Rs 180,000 per vehicle for the company.  After being snubbed by the government on its plea for an incentive package to revive the CV industry, there seems to be no light at the end of the tunnel. M&M says discounts have reached a level of upto Rs 400,000 per vehicle.  Tata Motors too saw its margins hit a rock bottom of 0.9 percent in the last quarter as losses reached Rs 803 crore on a standalone basis. Average cash discounts for the company have touched Rs 200,000 per heavy duty truck Coal india pays its highest dividend to Govt (15/1/2014)  Coal India has paid Rs.16,485 crores as dividend to government  Its highest ever dividend paid by coal india in all these years  Govt target is to raise Rs. 40,000 crore through disinvestment  So far it has been able to raise Rs. 3000 crore only PMI rises highest in one year (4/3/2014)  HSBC Purchasing Manager Index for manufacturing sector came to 52.5 in February since February 2013  The survey was based on 500 large manufacturing firms. Sensex PE ratio sector wise (4/3/2014)  Sector           2008 Finance 21.2 IT 23.4 FMCG 29.0 OIL GAS 21.7 Telecom 42.7 Power 35.4 Metals 14.7 Capital goods 50.3 Pharma 20.9 Automobile 18.2 2014 11.2 22.0 33.7 9.2 174.3 11.7 17.0 16.4 30.0 13.3 Weightage in Sensex (4/3/2014)  Finance  IT  FMCG  Oil Gas  Automobile  Pharma  Capital goods  Metals  Power  Telecom 25.5% 18% 14.6% 13.9% 9.6% 5.8% 4.5% 3.5% 2.4% 2.3% UPA vs NDA numbers (6/3/2014)        Economy grew 50 % faster under UPA than in NDA UPA fought with once in lifetime depression for 6 years out of its 10 year while NDA has comfortable economic environment In UPA II the annual GDP growth rate was 7.1 % while world average GDP was 1.5 % Under UPA, Debt to GDP ratio down to 67 % while China debt to GDP is 200 % In 2004, Inida debt to GDP ratio was 85 % up from 73 % in 1999 Under NDA the Gross Fixed Capital Formation, a measure of investment was around 25 % while under UPA it was 33 % under the current macro economic environment. RUSSIA GFCG is 20 % Under NDA, India spent 50 % of its budgetary receipts for interest payment only, unsustainable ratio while under UPA it has come down to 30 %. The remaining 20 % is used for subsidies and programme like NGERA. UPA vs NDA numbers (6/3/2014)  Both UPA and NDA had poor show for employment figures  On inflation UPA has problem while NDA managed well. Could be as commodity prices were low when NDA was there.  Since 2002 the prices of commodities have went up by 6 to 7 times.  Since 1980 world economies have grown because of huge debt capital used. China grew because of huge debt capital  Now neither western countries nor china can stretch their balance sheet. CAD at 8 years low (6/3/2014)  April – December CAD is at 2.3 % of GDP  Last year it was 6.5 %  Last year same peirod it was 5.2 %  For the full year CAD could be in range of $ 35 to 40 billion  Import duty on gold raised to 10 % from 2 % which helped reduced import  In oct - December quarter CAD is $ 4.2 billion as compared to $ 31 billion SEBI wants MF to grow multifold (6/3/2014) Mint  AUM is currently at Rs. 8,00,000 crores  In 5 years target is to reach Rs. 20,00,000 crores  Currently top 15 cities account for 87% of AUM  SEBI proposes to have mutual fund linked retirement plan  In USA same concept called as 401K plan  SEBI estimates if 10 % of 36 million tax payers invest Rs. 50,000 then also annually Rs. 18000 crores would come into mutual funds  Employee Provident Fund Organization (EPFO) has total corpus of Rs. 5.46 trillion  SEBI has proposed to Government that 15 % of this should be allowed to invest into equity or equity oriented funds. Market at all time high (6/3/2014)  BSE Sensex has touched all time high of 21513  FII have poured in $ 1 billion in last 15 trading sessions  In 2014 January and February, FII net investment in debt is Rs. 30,000 crores and in equities it is Rs. 3900 crores ECB and Bank of England leaves rate unchanged (7/3/2014) Moneycontrol  The European Central Bank (ECB) left its benchmark rate unchanged at record low of 0.25 percent  Earlier in the day, the Bank of England (BoE) also left interest rates at a record low of 0.5 percent and its gilt purchase target unchanged at £375 billion (USD 617 billion). WPI inflation falls low (18/3/2014)  WPI inflation came to 9 month low at 4.7%  SBI paid advance tax of Rs. 1456 crores for the March quarter FOMC MEET US (20/3/2014)  US FED CUTS BOND BUYING TO $ 55 BILLION FROM $ 65 MILLION  GDP GROWTH PROJECT AT 2.3%  Unemployment likely to fall from 7.5 % to 6.7%  US Current Account deficit at 14 year low at $ 81 billion SUUTI to sell 9 % in Axis Bank (21/3/2014)  Specified Undertaking of Unit Trust of India (SUUTI) to sell 9 % in Axis Bank  It will help Govt to raise Rs. 5500 crores  The total proceeds of Govt from share sale will go to Rs. 21000 crores which is more than earlier estimate of Rs. 19000 crores. SEZ scheme a non-started (21/3/2014)  389 SEZ have been notified  Only 185 functional means have only one export unit     functional SEZ have to pay 18.5 % Minimum Alternate Tax SEZ gets 100 % tax exemption for first 5 years 50 % tax exempt for next 5 years 50 % of ploughing back of profit in next 5 years. FII Pour money into india (26/3/2014) ($ million)  Country  India  Indonesia  Japan  Philipines  S.Korea  Taiwan  Brazil FII March 2172 1121 -7061 268 -1789 1337 -262 YTD 2579 1978 -19499 233 -3459 1780 319 FII Pour money into india (26/3/2014) ($ million)  FII have invested close to $ 2.5 billion into Indian markets over past one month  FII withdrew $ 2 billion from China and $ 1billion from korea  Invested $ 0.5 billion in Brazil RBI KEEPS RATE UNCHANGED (1/4/2014)  Repo Rate at 8 %  Reverse Repo Rate at 7 %  CRR at 4 %  SLR at 23%  RBI has kept rates unchanged. INDIAN MACRO IMPROVING (31/3/2014)  Fiscal Deficit at 4.6%  Plan Expenditure at Rs. 4.75 lakh crore  CAD at $ 35 billion  Exports at $ 326 billion  GDP seen at 4.9%  April to February WPI at 5.9%  Forex Reserves at $ 300 billion FII money into Debt markets (4/4/2014)  From January to March 2014 quarter FII have invested Rs. 35000 crores into indian debt market  The biggest such quarterly inflow ever accroding to SEBI FII Debt Market Flows (4/4/2014) (Quarterly flows)  Quarter ending  Dec 2011  March 2012  June 12  Sep 12  Dec 12  March 13  June 13  Sep 13  Dec 13  March 14 Rs. crore 22555 16874 5875 13935 9607 14923 -24326 -27000 -12563 35531 WTO see Global Trade to raise (15/4/2014)  WTO see global trade at 4.7 % in 2014  Last two years global trade has been 2.2%  But still below average of 5.3 % for last two decades WTO see Global Trade to raise (15/4/2014)  Countries Exports  Developed Nation 3.6  North America 4.6  Europe 3.3  South & central America 4.4 Asia 6.9 Imports 3.4 3.9 3.2 4.1 6.4 FII Big buyers (15/4/2014)  FII have purchased shares worth Rs. 30,000 croes since February 1st  The Sensex have risen by 11 % WPI inflation rises to (16/4/2014)  March WPI inflation at 5.7%  In February it was 4.68 % at 9 month low  IIP data has also come -1.9 % which shows contraction in industry  Capital goods a vital indicator at -17.4 % vs -4 % Auto Slump Claims 2 lakh jobs (17/4/2014)  About 2 lakh jobs have been lost due to production cuts     in auto industry The auto industry employs 19 million direct and indirect workers This is below the target of 25 million workers by 2016 under 10 year Auto Mission plan of the government Past 25 months there is negative sales streak for heavy trucks and buses In last one decade there is deepest decline in car sales FII flows continue (29/4/2014)  The net investments by FIIs into Indian equity markets since the beginning of 2014 have crossed USD 5 billion over Rs 30,000 crore), while the same for debt markets also stands near USD 5 billion (about Rs 29,000 crore)-taking the total to close to Rs 60,000 crore.  There were over 1,700 registered FIIs in the country, along with close to 6,400 subaccounts. Commodity Exchanges new norms (6/5/2014)     According to the new guidelines, individuals can’t hold more than 5 percent in a commodity exchange, unlike the earlier norms where they held around 24 percent. Only an already existing commodity exchange, a depository, banking company, an insurance company and a public financial institution is allowed to hold around 5-15 percent in a commodity exchange. Even foreign investors are not allowed to hold more than 5 percent. Through this, the regulator is clearly ensuring that the concept of anchor investor doesn’t exist from now onwards. This will also have an impact on the bidding process since, now many players like Reliance Capital , Tata Capital may not be able to hold more than 5 percent as an individual entity. Sources indicate that Kotak may have an upper hand, since if it applies through Kotak ace, commodity exchange, it can hold upto 15 percent in the exchange and it will be interesting to see who all will not be in the race. The new guidelines are set to expedite the MCX stake sale process. Since the norms also spell out that if a person is not fit and proper and has a pending divestment, then his voting rights are suppose to extinguish. China real estate market slows down (7/5/2014) moneycontrol  According to a survey by China Real Estate Index System (CREIS), 45 of the 100 cities experienced month-on-month property price declines in April, up from 37 cities in March. Meanwhile, property investment in China has also lost steam as bank funding for developers tightens. Property investment accounted for about 12 percent of China`s gross domestic product (GDP) in the first quarter, down from 15 percent in 2013, according to Reuters. Inflation rises again (12/5/2014)  CPI inflation at 8.59 % vs 8.31%  IIP at -0.5 % vs -1.9%  Capital goods at -12.5% vs -17.4 %  Manufacturing sector at -1.7%  Food inflation 9.66%  Rural inflation 9.25 % vs 8.89% FII pour Rs. 1 lakh crore (19/5/2014) money control  Foreign investors have pumped in over Rs one lakh crore in the Indian securities market since Narendra Modi was announced as the prime ministerial candidate by Bhartiya Janta Party (BJP) in September 2013.  As per latest data compiled by capital markets regulator Sebi, the net investments by FIIs into Indian equity markets stood at Rs 88,772 crore since the announcement. The same for debt markets was at Rs 13,399 crore -- taking the total to Rs 1,02,171 crore.  FII pour Rs. 1 lakh crore (19/5/2014) money control  FIIs, the main driver of the equity market, have helped pushed up the benchmark BSE Sensex by over 22 per cent since September 13.  In 2014 alone, FIIs have infused a net amount of over Rs 74,000 crore in the domestic market, which included more than Rs 41,000 crore in equities and nearly Rs 33,000 crore in the debt.  Currently, there are 1,700 registered FIIs in the country, while the number of sub-accounts stood at 6,408. GDP stagnant (30/5/2014)  GDP growth at 4.6%  Annual GDP growth at 4.5%  Core sector 8 industries growth at 4.2% vs 2.7% last year RBI CUTS SLR (3/6/2014)  RBI keeps Repo rate at 8 %  Reverse Rate at 7 %  MSF at 9%  CRR at 4 %  SLR (statutory Liquidity Ratio) reduced by 50 bps from 23% to 22.50 %  The cut in SLR releases Rs. 40,000 crores into the system RBI Increases overseas investment limit  Overseas investment limit increased to US $ 1,25,000 from earlier $ 75000  Last year the limit was reduced from $ US 2,00,000 to US $ 75000  Indian residents and non residents except pakistani and bangladeshi can take upto Rs. 25000 outside india Nifty Companies at low valuation (11/6/2014)  Company Current PE  Cairn India 6.3  NMDC 9.6  Tata Steel 8.3  IDFC 9.9  HDFC Bank 17.3  ICICI Bank 14.2 10 year avg 13.8 15.0 10.8 15.2 20.8 16.9 Inflation and IIP falls (12/6/2014)  IIP data has come to 3.4 % as compared to -0.5 %  Manufacturing accounts for 75 % in IIP where as electricity and mining account for 25 %  Core sector data had also come 4.2 % as compared to 2.7%  Inflation has come to 8.28% as compared to 8.59 % WPI inflation rises (16/6/2014)  WPI inflation at 6.1% as compared to 5.3% last month  Food articles index rose to 2.3 percent on a month-on-month (MoM) basis as food articles inflation saw an uptick at 9.50 percent versus 8.64 percent in the previous month.  Govt Announces measures to control food inflation (18/6/2014)  Govt tells state governments to crack down on hoarders      and black marketers of food articles Allow farmers to directly sell fruit and vegetables to any customer instead of being forced to go to specified markets and mandis, where middlemen thrive. Onions to be exported at $ 300 per tonne not below that which would ensure that less exports take place States have been advised to delist fruits and vegetables from APMC Act If Delhi and Vashi market; the two biggest fruits and vegetable markets in Delhi and Mumbai, if you can tackle these two, half of India's fruits and vegetable can be streamlined. Govt Announces measures to control food inflation (18/6/2014)  This is because the commissions of the commission agent of the wholesalers and even at the retail level range from 30-50 percent, and that is where the farmer gets a lower price, consumer has to pay a much higher price. We have to compress this value change to make them efficient and that required the change in law and that was the APMC Act.  Excess Rice and Wheat to be released from the Godown of FCI (Food Corporation of India) Fin Ministry plans to divest 7 PSU (19/6/2014)  PSU          Govt Stake % Coal India 89.65 Sail 80.00 MMTC 90.00 NMDC 80.00 NHPC 85.96 Nalco 81.06 Nevili Lignite 90.00 Government can get Rs. 22,000 crore from 10 % stake sale in Coal India Disinvestment target kept at Rs. 36000 crores Core Sector Data slips (1/7/2014)      India's core industry growth for May slowed to 2.3 percent versus 4.2 percent month-on-month (MoM) and 5.9 percent year-on-year (YoY). Core sector is 38 percent of IIP. The government’s May coal output grew 5.5 percent versus 3.3 percent MoM, while crude oil output declined 0.3 percent against 0.1 percent decline MoM. May electricity output grew 6.3 percent against 11.2 percent (MoM). Steel output in May saw a month-on-month decline at 2 percent versus 3.1 percent growth in April. Core sector growth (1/7/2014)  Month  January  February  March  April  May Core sector % 1.6 4.5 2.5 4.2 2.3 Fiscal deficit to be higher (1/7/2014)  Fiscal deficit was targeted by Chidambaram at 4.1 % (assuming revenue would rise 19 %)  But actually revenue has gone up by 3.1% only  Fiscal deficit is Rs. 2.4 lakh crore which is 45.6% of budget estimate. This was last year 33 %.  The fiscal deficit in 2013-14 was 4.6% as compared to 4.9 % earlier IIP Rises to 19th month high (14/7/2014)  The Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of May came in at 4.7 percent versus 3.4 percent month-on-month.  The factory output in May is at a 19-month high – highest since October 2012.  Electricity sector growth came in at 6.3 percent against 11.9 percent MoM. Manufacturing sector growth too jumped to 4.8 percent versus 2.6 percent in April. Mining sector growth too improved at 2.7 percent against 1.2 percent MoM.  The jump in May IIP data is slightly surprising considering India’s core industry growth for May slowed to 2.3 percent versus 4.2 percent month-on-month (MoM) and 5.9 percent year-on-year (YoY) and core sector is 38 percent in the Index of Industrial Production. WPI inflation cools (14/7/2014)  Wholesale Price Index inflation in June declined to 5.43 percent from 6.01 percent in May.  Food articles inflation slipped to 8.14 percent from 9.50 percent  primary articles inflation dropped to 6.84 percent versus 8.58 percent but manufactured products inflation increased marginally to 3.61 percent versus 3.55 percent month-onmonth.  April WPI inflation was revised upwards at 5.55 percent as against 5.20 percent provisional. CPI cools down (14/7/2014)  CPI cools down to 7.31% as against 8.28%  This may give room for RBI to reduce interest rates Retail investors flock back to equity funds (16/7/2014)  Rs. 7309 crore came in equity mutual funds in June 2014 highest since Jan 2008  Rs. 9761 crore total flows into equity mutual funds in May and June  Rs. 12072 crore Gross sales of equity schemes in june  Since may 2014 20 new brokers have registered with BSE and 36 fresh application for membership is in process Core sector growth jumps (31/7/2014)  June Core sector growth at 7.3% vs 1.2% year on year  Its at 9 month high  April to june core sector growth at 4.6% vs 3.7% year on year India July HSBC PMI (1/8/2014)  India July HSBC manufacgturing PMI at 53 vs 51.5 month on month  China July official PMI rises to 51.7 from 51 which is 27 month high indicating growth coming back  China PMI rises to 51.7 which is 18 month high CAD Still concern (4/8/2014) money control  CAD, which is the excess of foreign exchange outflows over inflows, touched a historic high of USD 88 billion or 4.7 per cent of GDP in 2012-13, mainly due to rising imports of gold and petroleum products.  In order to check rising CAD, the government had raised import duties on the yellow metal to 10 per cent, while RBI imposed curbs on import of gold and also laid down various preconditions for inward shipments of the precious metal. It came down to USD 32.4 billion or 1.7 per cent of GDP in 2013-14. US unemployment rises (4/8/2014)  US unemployment rises to 6.2 %  For the sixth consecutive month US created more than 2,00,000 jobs China service PMI falls (5/8/2014)  China's Jul HSBC svcs PMI falls to lowest in almost 9 years The services purchasing managers' index(PMI) compiled by HSBC/Markit fell to 50.0 in July from a 15-month high of 53.1 in June, the lowest reading since November 2005 when the data collection began. India July Services PMI falls (5/8/2014)  India July Service PMI has fallen from 54.4 to 52.2 on a month on month basis.  This shows slight slow down in the services sector also. 667 RBI CUTS SLR (5/8/2014)  RBI cuts SLR 50 points to 22 % from 22.5%  Repo rate unchanged at 8 %  CRR unchanged at 4 %  Reverse repo rate at 7 % US Economy Motors on, borroiwng at 7 year low  US Treasury borrowing is at 7year low since 2007 due to     stronger economy boost tax revenue Treasury has paid down $ 64 billion in marketable debt in Arpil June quarter. Cash balance was $ 130 billion in June Budget deficit has been falling since 2009 and in 2014 it is projected to be 2.8% of GDP which was 9.8% in 2009 when Barak Obama took charge The US Economy has expanded 4 % in April to June quarter 2014. SEBI oks REITs (11/8/2014)  Paving the way for Rs 1 lakh crore fund inflows from foreign and domestic investors, Sebi on Sunday cleared new norms for setting up and listing of Real Estate and Infrastructure Investment Trusts.  The new guidelines, which herald a new investment avenue in India on the lines of one in developed markets like the US, UK, Japan, Hong Kong and Singapore, would allow trading in units of REITs and InvITs like any other security on stock exchanges.  Minimum investment amount for REITs has been fixed at Rs 2 lakh and at Rs 10 lakh for InvITs for now, given the complex nature and potential risks associated with them. SEBI oks REITs (11/8/2014)  The REITs alone can attract USD 8-10 billion worth funds. Talking to reporters after the board meeting, Sebi Chairman U K Sinha said that these trusts would help in the progress of the real estate and infrastructure sectors.  The government feels that these new investment avenues would reduce the pressure on the banking system while also making available fresh equity in form of long-term finance from foreign and domestic sources including the NRIs PPF vs Equity (25/8/2014)  PPF can beat equities over 20 year period  Since 1994 Sensex was 4588 and now it is at 26420 in 2014  Annualised return of Sensex is 9.15 % while PPF has given 10.46%  Rs. 10,000 invested in 1994 in Sensex gives today Rs. 57520 and in in PPF gives Rs. 73,124  Since august 2007 Senesx annualised return is 8.10% Indian GDP rises (29/8/2014)  Indian GDP at 5.7% vs 4.6%  Highest in 10 quarters  Economy coming back on track  Rise in GDP due to Government spending on social sector at 9.9% vs 3.3%  Govt Spending reduces as fiscal year ends due to target of meeting fiscal deficit FIIs pump huge money (8/9/2014)  FII pumped Rs. 3400 crores in Equities in first week of september  FII pumped Rs. 5000 crores in Debt market  Totally they have invested Rs. 9000 crores in Indian markets in first week of september Alibaba worlds biggest IPO (9/9/2014) Chinese e-commerce behemoth on Friday said it expects to price its IPO between USD 60 and USD 66 per share to raise as much as USD 24.3 billion - making it the largest US public offering in history.  At USD 66 a piece, Alibaba would be valued at USD 163 billion - below analysts` expectations for a valuation of more than USD 200 billion.  Facebook, the world`s largest technology IPO to date, raised USD 16.01 billion in its May 2012 debut in New York. It had a market capitalization of USD 81.25 billion, according to Associated Press.  Coal block decision delay (9/9/2014)  he Supreme Court has reserved its order in the coal block allocation case and has also refrained from giving any specific date to pass the order. The apex court heard the final arguments today to determine the fate of 218 coal blocks awarded since 1993 which it has termed as "illegal" and "unconstitutional.“  The government at the hearing on September 1, left it to the apex court to decide the fate of these coal blocks, held as illegal by it, while stating that about 40 blocks are operational and another six are ready to produce 50 million tonnes coal in the current year. NRI may find it easier to invest in india (10/9/2014)  1991 through SBI India Development Bond had raised $ 1.6 billion  1998 Resurgent Bonds which college $ 4.2 billion after Nuclear test put sanctions by USA  In 2001, India Millennium Deposits raised $ 5.5 billion GMR group debt (12/9/2014)  GMR group debt has increased to Rs. 37000 crores  The stock trades at 25 Rs.  High debt kills the EPS growth LIC king of personal loans (12/9/2014)  LIC has given secured personal loans against LIC policies of Rs. 60,000 crore  LIC gives loans at 10 %  Bank loans against FD are Rs. 54,200 crore  Bank loans against shares Rs. 3200 crore Difficult to do business in india (12/9/2014)  Vodafone India chief says difficult to do business in india  In china telco are reglated and three players have invested $ 50 billion in network last year  India has spend only 10% of that in createion of networks  Vodafone still faces Rs. 20,000 crore in tax problems. Inflation stubborn and IIP slows (12/9/2014)  CPI Inflation has been stubborn at 7.8% from 7.96% last month  IIP slowed down from 3.4 % to 0.5 % which shows still recovery is not sustaining August WPI at 5 year low  Inflation data based on wholesale price index (WPI) for August hit a five year low at 3.74 percent vs 5.19 percent seen in July  Food inflation in August hit a lowest level since January 2012. It eased to 5.15 percent versus 8.43 percent on a month-onmonth (MoM) basis.  Further, August fuel inflation also hit a five-year low with the fuel and power group inflation declining to 4.54 percent versus 7.40 percent (MoM). NPA rising (15/9/2014)  According to ICRA report, there has been rise in NPA loans to 38%  It was Rs. 1.65 trillion which has now become Rs. 2.27 trillion  Trade deficit narrows to $10.83bn in Aug; exports slow Trade deficit during the period (April-August) stood at USD 56.15 billion down from USD 70.6 billion during the same period last year. FII flows continues (16/9/2014)  Foreign Institutional Investors (FII) flows during calendar year 2013 invested Rs.1,13,000 croes while DII were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 74,000 crores. In 2014 till date FII have invested Rs. 86,000 crores while DII sold shares worth Rs. 34,000 crores. Taking the net investment to Rs. 51,500 crores. Corporate raising funds (16/9/2014)  In this year Indian corporates have raised Rs. 26,000 crores through Institutional Placement  They plan to raise Rs. 50,000 crores in coming months as more QIP are expected to follow Expected fund raising in next 12 months (16/9/2014)  Methods  PSU Divestment  Banks FPO  IPO & FPO  Hind Zinc & Blaco Pvt  SUUTI Stake sale Rs. Crores 45000 40000 35000 20000 10000 ET 500 reflects revival sweeping across india (16/9/2014)  Total revenue of top 500 listed companies have increased by 11 %  The total rise in revenue is Rs. 67 lakh crore 1 year return of stocks (16/9/2014)             Company Sensex RIL IOC BPCL HPCL Tata Motors SBI ONGC Tata Steel Essar oil Hindalco 1 year return 37.1 18.9 69.1 119.5 136.1 64.4 67.7 54.4 120.2 123.2 104.5 Govt cash rich (22/9/2014)  Govt has reduced its first half borrowing by Rs. 16000 crore and may not borrow this at all.  Govt had budgeted to borrow Rs. 3.68 trillion in first half and Rs. 2.32 trillion in the second half of FY15.  Govt to ask ministries to spend more  This would help GDP to grow as spending would create demand and consumption PM Prepares to help world make in India(22/9/2014)  Govt would set up fully functional online system  Budding entrepreneurs can get 100 central and state government approvals online  Only one single window clearance system. Manufacturing growth stagnated (22/9/2014)  Year  1993-94  2003-04  2013-14 Manufac share in GDP 14.6% 15.2% 14.9% Facts about India (I watch book) Krishnan Khanna  India contributes 2.6 % in world GDP  India has 17 % of world population  India contributes 2.2% in world trade which means 97.8% world trade not with India  Our per capita income is $ 1583 per year as compared to China $ 5210 and USA $ 47000  300 million people live below poverty line  Criteria for BPL is Rs. 26 per day in rural india and Rs. 32 per day in urban area Facts about India (I watch book) Krishnan Khanna  Literacy ratio is 61 % as compared to china 93 %  88% is drop out rate between kinder garden and 12 std in     india. In China all children go through compulsorily 9 years of schooling 2,50,000 india go abroad every year for studies which result into Rs. 75,000 crore of forex spending This amount can be used to create 60 IIM and 40 IITs Only 28000 foreing students come to india for studies while in Dubai it is 50,000, Australia 4,00,000 and singapore 1,50,000 Facts about India (I watch book) Krishnan Khanna  India has 1.2 billion population and china 1.3 billion  In India 28 million people are born every year while in China 17 million  Life expectancy in India is 67 years and in china is 75 years. Core Sector Grows (1/10/2014)  Core sector growth for the month of August was 5.8% vs 2.7% in July  Last year In august core sector growth was 4.7%  Experts believe that the overall core sector growth of 5.8 percent is a positive for the economy given that it forms 37 percent of the index of industrial production. IMF lowers world growth to 3.3% (13/10/2014)  Sentiment on global growth has taken the severest knock since the global FINANCIAL crisis.  Mid-September data showed that Chinese industrial output grew by just 6.9 percent in August, down from the 9 percent level in July, that's the lowest level since 2008;  last week data showed that German industrial output in August slid 4 percent, the biggest fall in 5-1/2 years.  And earlier this week, the IMF pulled down global growth numbers for 2014 to 3.3 percent from 3.4 percent forecast in June and 3.7 percent forecast in April. IIP Data again shocks (13/10/2014)  IIP data has come to 0.4 % as compared to projection of 2.4 %  Last month also the IIP data had come to 0.5%  Validity of IIP data under question as too much volatility WPI cools to 5 year low (14/10/2014)  Inflation data based on Wholesale Price Index (WPI) for September eased to 5-year low at 2.38 percent against 3.74 percent on a month-on-month basis on lower food and fuel prices.  Food inflation, which came in at 33-month low, stood at 3.52 percent against 5.15 percent  Fuel and power group inflation came in at 1.33 percent against 4.54 percent on a month-on-month basis. Manufactured products inflation came in at 2.84 percent against 3.45 percent. The July WPI inflation has been revised to 5.41 percent from 5.19 percent. Trade Deficit widens (14/10/2014)  Trade Deficit widens to $ 14 billion  Exports went up by 2.38%  Imports up by 20 %  Oil imports up by 9.76%  Non Oil Imports up by 36%  Out of $ 4 Billion rise in imports, gold accounted for $ 1.75 billion and another $ 1 billion was due to jems and jewellery DLF promoters barred (16/10/2014)  DLF has total debt of Rs. 19000 crore  Annual interest outflow of Rs. 13500 crore Brokers closing (16/10/2014)  Brokers are closing their shops though markets up  Corporate brokers 400 got closed  Sub Brokers from 51000 have come to 46000. In sep 2013, the total number of sub brokers was 79000  In 2014, around 7700 sub brokers got closed Switzerland exports gold to India (27/10/2014) business line  Gold exports from Switzerland to India has reached record high of Rs. 70,000 crore  In september 2014 alone the export was Rs. 15000 crore  Gold being used for “layering” purposes to move funds from Swiss bank to India Europeans banks fail stress test (27/10/2014) Business line  13 banks out of 130 top European banks have failed stress test  They need to increase their capital buffer against losses by $ 12.5 billion  ECB has given 2 weeks time to banks to increase their capital buffer India set to grow 6.4% in FY16: World Bank (28/10/2014)  Buoyed by expectations from the new government, the World Bank asserted that India's growth story is on track with its economy set to grow by 6.4 percent in FY16 and at 7 percent the following fiscal versus 5.6 percent in FY15.  The multi-lateral FUNDING agency also forecasts FY15 inflation (WPI) at 4.3 percent and current account deficit at 2 percent. Oct 28, 2014, 08.27 AM IST | Source: CNBC Why OPEC's losing its ability to set oil prices  US shale oil will replace the Organization of the Petroleum     Exporting Countries as the first-mover "swing producer," according to a Goldman Sachs report The shift in pricing power became apparent to Goldman when U.S. shale's spare capacity, at around 5 million barrels per day, exceeded Saudi Arabia's spare capacity of 1.5 million Spare capacity refers to the amount of crude a country is able to produce in 30 days in case of an emergency. By 2019, US shale OIL production will jump to 9.6 million barrles per day, from 8 million now. In comparison, Saudi Arabia currently produces 9.6 million barrels of crude oil a day. Snapdeal makes the news (29/10/2014)  Softbank is japan Internet and telecom group  Its has invested $ 627 million (Rs 3800 crores) in Snapdeal  It had invested $ 20 million in Ali baba which is now $ 80 billion US ends its bond buying program (30/10/2014)  USA has ended its bond buying programme  It had announced $ 85 billion per month bond buying  It has ended as economy has revived strongly  Interest rates still to remain till next year Small shareholders in suspended companies suffer (30/10/2014)  Stocks No of retail investors  Consortex Kari 4,00,122  Birla Power 2,03,633  Silverline tech 1,98,135  Nextgen Animation 1,79,062  Ispat Profiles 1,42,823  NEPC Agro 1,34,870  Bellary steel 1,09,529 Govt relaxes FDI in construction sector (30/102014)  Minimum Foreign investment cut to $ 5 million from $ 10 million  Minimum Floor area cut to 20,000 sq m from 50,000 sq m  No conditions for projects with 30 % affordable housing Japan gives stimulus (3/11/2014) business line  Bank of Japan has increased it bond buying from Yen 60 trillion to Yen 80 trillion  Increased maturity time from 7 to 10 years  It was pleasure surprise for global markets as US Fed has stopped the “Quantitative Easing”. Inflation cools and IIP rises (12/11/2014)  Inflation based on the Consumer Price Index (CPI) for the month of October eased to its all-time low of 5.52 percent, the lowest since India started computing consumer price index (CPI) in January 2012, triggered by lower food prices and fuel costs.  Meanwhile, the index for industrial output (IIP) for the month of September came in at 2.5 percent beating street estimate of 2 percent, against 0.4 percent in August. Trade deficit falls (17/11/2014) Exports hit 7 month low  India's TRADE deficit in October narrowed sharply to USD 13.36 billion from USD 14.25 billion in the previous month courtesy decline in oil imports.  However, on an annual basis, trade deficit has surged 26.1 percent to USD 13.36 billion. India's imports fell to USD 39.45 billion from USD 43.15 billion in September, but on a year-on-year basis, it has increased 3.16 percent. Oil and gold are the key contributors to India's import bill. Oil imports fell to USD 12.36 billion as against USD 14.50 billion, on a month-on-month basis. Non-oil imports stood at USD 27.08 billion as against USD 28.65 billion, m-o-m. GOLD imports surged to USD 4.18 billion from USD 3.75 billion in the previous month.  On a year-on-year basis, gold imports jumped to USD 4.17 billion from USD 1.09 billion. This spike in could be because of the festivals like Diwali and Dhanteras, which are considered as most auspicious occasions in India to buy the yellow metal. Silver imports also rose to USD 686 million from USD 477.61 million in September. Global investors poll (18/112014)  Best opportunities over next 12 months  Country  USA  India  China  EU  UK % 49 22 22 17 17 KVP back in flavour (18/11/2014)  Financial savings were at 12% in FY 10 which       reduced to 7.1 % in FY 12 Kisan Vikas Patra is relaunched Denomination of Rs. 1000, R.s 5000,Rs. 10,000, Rs. 50,000 No upper limit of investment Money doubles in 100 months (8 years 4 months) Annual return of 8.7% Encash certificate after lock in of 2.5 years GDP slows (28/11/2014)  GDP growth comes to 5.3 % vs 5.7 % last quarter  Last quarter growth was 4.6 % which was 10 year low World Economy still fragile (1/12/2014)  China PMI falls to 49.6 which is at 6 months low  China's economic growth is expected to slow to a 24-year low of 7.4 percent  European Union to roll out more stimulus  Bank of Japan has increased Yen stimulus from 60 trillion yen to 80 trillion yen Core Sector picks up (1/12/2014)  Core Sector growth comes to 6.3 %  The HSBC PMI hit a 21-month high in November at 53.3 versus 51.6 in October. Manufacturing operating conditions in India improved for the thirteenth month in a row in November Bank of England (5/12/2014)  Bank of England leaves rates unchanged a 0.5 %  Continues asset buying programme of 375 billion pounds NSE seeks 25 % from Brokers for SGF (5/12/2014)  Stock Brokers who are clearing members will have to give 25 % to core SGF fund  This money cannot be used for margin  Additional cost may hit business  NSE has Rs 625 crores, BSE Rs. 129 crores and MCX-SX 17 crores as SGF Trade deficit widens (8/12/2014)  CAD increased from 1.7% to 2.1% of GDP  Exports 4.9% vs 11.1%  Imports $ 10 billion vs $ 5 billion  Increase in gold imports  Export growth slid to 4.9 percent in Q2 of 2014-15 from 11.9 percent YoY,  Imports increased by 8.1 percent in Q2 of 2014-15 as against a decline of 4.8 percent in Q2 YoY, largely due to a sharp rise in gold imports.  Trade deficit in Q2 now stands at USD 38.56 billion versus USD 34.6 billion in the preceding quarter. WPI at 0 % (15/12/2014)  WPI inflation at 0 % vs 1.77% month on month  Food inflation at 0.63% vs 2.77%  All commodities down 1.3%  Manufactured products inflation at 2.03 % vs 2.43%  Fuel and power -4.91% FII rush back in 2015(22/12/2014)  Year Net flows ($ billion)  2012 24  2013 20  2014 16.5  In 2014 Sensex has given return of 32 %  1 $ billion = Rs. 6000 crore (Rs. 60 per dollar) Indian manufacturing contracts (22/12/2014)  Indian Manufacturing output contracted 0.7% in 2013-2014 for first time in 2 decades and only third time after national gained independence  In october the IIP has contracted 4.2%  National Manufacturing Competitive Council (NMCC) needs to be revamped CSR now geeting real (23/12/2014)  For CSR the following conditions  Rs. 500 crore profit or more OR  Rs. 1000 crore turnover or more OR  Rs. 5 crore net profit or more  Out of 9,50,000 companies only 16000 come under CSR rule  According to estimates Rs. 22000 crores would be spend in CSR this year but implementation is slow Mutual Funds (23/12/2014)  Rs. 10.67 lakh crore Assets managed by Indian     Mutual funds industry 67% is through distributors 33% through direct investments 90% investment in equity and 55% in debt is through distributors SEBI plans to reduce expenses incurred by funds to 1.5 % of assets as compared to 2.5 % which was set 20 years ago USA Economy back on track (24/12/2014)  The U.S. economy grew at a 5.0 percent clip in the third quarter, its quickest pace in 11 years and the strongest sign yet that growth has decisively shifted into higher gear.  Wall Street had expected growth would be raised to only a 4.3 percent rate.  The reports further set the U.S. economy apart from the rest of the world, where growth is sputtering or activity shrinking. China Nov industrial profits fall 4.2%, steepest in 27 mths (29/12/2014)  China Nov industrial profits fall 4.2%, steepest in 27 mths  the biggest annual decline since August 2012.  In October, profits slid 2.1 percent compared with the same month in 2013. Companies raise 14 % in 2014 (29/12/2014) moneycontrol  Cos raise Rs 39,127 cr in 2014; down 14% from 2013: PRIME Saving grace came in the form of the 33 QIPs this calendar year, which saw Rs 31,684 crore being raised from institutional investors, the highest in 5 years, accounting for 81 percent of the total amount mobilized this year  Rs 45,440 crore raised in the 2013 Global Indian money may be treated as local (31/12/2014)  Since April 2000 ( In $ billion)  Total FDI 235  Investment by NRI 4.7  Share of NRI (%) 2  Government plans to merge Persons of Indian Origin (PIO) and Overseas Citizens of India Amazon and Flipkart wrestle to shoppers (31/12/2014)  Flipkart to raise Rs. 1300 crore though rights issue and borrow Rs. 400 crore from Kotak Mahindra Bank  FY 14 Revenues it had Rs. 2846 crores but loss of Rs. 400 crores  AMAZON to issue shares worth Rs. 610 crore to parent company  FY 14 $ 1 billion sales but loss of Rs. 321 crores Repo Rate (31/12/2014)  Dates Repo Rate (%)  July 27 2010 5.75  Mar 17, 2011 6.75  Oct 25, 2011 8.5  April 17, 2012 8.0  May 3, 2013 7.25  Jan 28, 2014 8.0 Cleanse PSU Banks (31/12/2014)  PSU Banks have stressed assets t 12.9% of their total loans in Sep 2014  Private Banks have stressed assets at 4.4% of their total loans in Sep 2014  The Return on Equity for PSU banks was 8.44% while for Private Banks it is 16.22% Sensex Returns and FII Flows (31/12/2014)  Year  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014 Sensex(%) FII flows ($ billion) 17.4 29.3 -24.6 0.4 25.7 24.5 9.0 19.9 29.4 16.0 Sensex Returns (31/12/2014)  Year  2014  1985  1991  2006  2007  2009 Sensex Return (%) 30 % 93% 82% 46% 47% 81 % Investment & not interest rates matter (31/12/2014)  From 1952 to 2010, study for American companies showed that profitability drives investment rather than lowe interest rates.  Interest rate is one of the catalyst but not the core one Promoters need to put in more capital (31/12/2014)  Take project of Rs. 10,000 crore project with 70:30 debt equity. Promoter has to put in Rs. 3000 crore as equity. But he can get only Rs. 1000 crore. So he inflates cost of project to Rs. 15000 crore.  Now his equity contribution comes to Rs. 4500 crore but he gets credit worth Rs. 10,500 crore more than enough to finance his entire project.  During implementation through promoter owned companies, money will be taken out of the project to fund a part of his equity contribution and grease palms that allow such inflated project cost to go not just unchallenged but actually blesssed. Best Performing Equity markets in 2014 (31/12/2014)  Markets  Agertina  China  Venezuela  Egypt  India % Return in 2014 56.62 49.61 38.35 32.77 29.44 Core sector growth rises (31/12/2014)  8 core sector growth rises to 6.7% vs 6.3% month on month  It is at highest level since june 2014 Govt fiscal deficit high (31/12/2014)  Govt touches fiscal deficit at 98.9% in just 8 months  India's fiscal deficit was Rs 5.25 trillion (USD 83.08 billion) during April-November, or 98.9 percent of the full-year target, government data showed on Wednesday.  The deficit was 93.9 percent during the same period a year ago.  Difficult to have fiscal deficit of 4.1% annually Markets Tanked (6/1/2015)  Markets tanked 3 % biggest fall after June 2009  FII sold in cash market Rs. 1500 crores of shares  Greece exit talks from EU main reason. Greece has 177 % Debt t GDP ratio and Unemployment level of 62 % Greece failing (6/1/2015)  Greece has to repay 6 to 7 billion Euro in July and August 2015  It may run out of cash in March 2015  In elections in Greece in January 2015, if opposition wins, they would tear up MOU signed with EU.  Greece falling out of EU would create panic for world markets SBI wants to merge with UTI (7/1/2015)  AMC        AUM (Rs. Crore) HDFC 1,50,468 ICICI Pru 1,36,763 Rel Capital 1,26,069 Birla Sun Life 1,07,968 UTI 87,390 SBI 72,142 The merger if happens would make the largest AMC Divestment coming soon (12/1/2015)  Govt plans to sell Coal India stake to raise Rs. 24000 crores  In 2010, Govt had sold 10% in coal india to raise Rs.15000 crores IIP wins (12/1/2015)  November IIP improves from -4.2% to 3.8 %  IIP at 5 month high  Inflation CPI from 4.38% to 5%  Manufacturing fro m -7.6% to  Capital goods from -2.3% to 6.5%  Manufacturing -7.6% to 3 % Pvt Life Insurers Find tough (13/1/2015)  LIC opened 1313 offices in 2013-2014  Pvt Life insurance companies closed 732 offices and     opened 166 offices Net closure of offices 566 Industry saw 9.43% rise in premium income mainly due to LIC while Pvt life insurance companies saw fall of 1.35% fall in premium collection Life Insurance Industry reported profit of Rs. 7588 crores during 2013-2014. Six companies in private sector gave dividend Total agents in industry is 21.88 lakhs VC funds back (13/1/2015)  Venture capital firms are on road to raise neary $ 2 billion or Rs. 12,400 crore to invest in startups in India  In 2014 firms raise $ 1 billion to invest in start ups World bank report (14/1/2015)  World bank Bi-annually report says world GDP to grow at       3 % in 2015 and 3.3% in 2016 Earlier forecast was 3.4% and 3.5% “The global economy is running on one single engine… the American one” India to grow at 7 % in 2016 Russia -2.9% in 2015 and 0.1% in 2016 Eurozone 1.1% in 2015 Japan 1.2% in 2015 RBI cuts Repo Rate (15/1/2015)  RBI cuts Repo rate by 0.25% to 7.75 % from 8 %  Reverse repo rate now 6.75%  CRR at 4 %  SLR at 22 %  MSF and Bank Rate at 8.75% (earlier it was 9 %) Dec trade deficit at $9.43 bn vs $16.86 bn (MoM)  Trade deficit during December fell sharply to USD 9 billion from USD 16.8 billion in November 2014.  While exports for the month came in at USD 25.40 billion from USD 25.96 billion in November, imports declined to USD 34.83 billion from USD 42.82 billion in the previous month. Eurozone gives stimulus (22/1/2015)  ECB has given 60 billion euro stimulus per month till sep 2016  Total quantum to be 1.14 trillion euros  Interest rates kept unchanged 10 challenges India faces (23/1/2015)  1. Revive Growth (job creation)  2.Improve consumer sentiments (rate cut) 3.Revive Investment through public spending (pvt sector in huge debt so govt has to spend) 4.Fiscal Consolidation (2016 target 3.6% and 2017 target 3 %) 5. Supply side inflation (Investment in supply chain, higher farm productivity) 6. Disinvestment (Target of Rs. 43000 crore but only Rs. 1700 crore achieved) 7. Bad loans of State Run Banks (Gross NPA has touched 5.32% in Sep 2014) 8. Boost Financial Savings (Higher savings so money for investments) 9. Aggressive taxation (Retrospective tax to be removed) 10. Improve Ease of Doing Business         Bad loans of State Run banks (23/1/2015)  Period  March 13  Sep 13  March 14  Sep 14 Gross NPAs 3.84 4.82 4.72 5.32 India ask US for investment in smart cities (23/1/2015)  Make in India to boost 25 manufacturing sectors  Since 2000 USA has invested $ 13 billion into India  USA is the sixth largest investor in India  In 2013-2014 US Companies have invested close to $ 1 billion Euro zone elections (27/1/2015)  Opposition party has won elections  They want to cancel 2012 MOU with EU  Greece has Debt to GDP ratio of 177%  Greece has unemployment of 62%  Greece may run out of cash in March  Greece has to pay 6 billion euro in july Unemployment rates in Europe  Germany 8 %  UK 20%  France 24%  Italy 40 %  Spain 57%  Greece 62% Rate cut saw 2000 points rally (29/1/2015)  RBI rate cut has lead to 2000 points in last 10 trading sessions  Stocks Points contributed  HDFC bank 449  ICICI bank 245  Axis bank 184 RBI CUTS SLR (3/2/2015)  RBI cuts SLR by 50 bps from 22 % to 21.5 %  Repo rate at 7.75%  Reverse Repo rate at 6.75%  CRR at 4 %  Benchmark policy rate at 7.75%F  FII can invest in Corporate bonds with 3 year maturity  RBI to allow Interest rate future contracts on 5-7 year, 13-15 year Govt bonds US creating jobs (9/2/2015)  USA consecutively for last 11 months have added more than 2,00,000 jobs on monthly basis  The best turn since 1994  Average of 3,36,000 jobs created a month for the past 3 months, the best in last 17 years Govt infuses Rs. 6990 crore in 9 PSU banks (9/2/2015)  Govt would infuse Rs. 6990 crore in 9 Public Sector Banks  This decision comes surprise to reports that Govt would infuse only in those PSU banks who perform. 14th Finance Commission (25/2/2015)  States to get 42 % as compared to earlier 32 % from central taxes  States given more autonomy to implement welfare programmes  States will co-operate more for GST now with Centre this initiative Greece Gets Time (24/2/2015)  Greece gets 4 months time for repayment schedule  Lenders accepts reforms list given by Greece  Some breathing time for world economy  Greece has Debt to GDP ratio of 177%  Unemployment rate at 62 % China PMI rises (25/2/2015)  China PMI has increased from 49 .7 to 50.3  First time in last 3 months  Raising hope that Chinese economy comes back on track  China GDP is already at 24 years low at 7.4% which is lowest since 1990 when it had registered 7.6% 3 PSU banks to raise Rs. 4500 crore in Perpetual bonds (26/2/2015)  Bank Gross NPA Fund Rate %  Canara 3.35 1500 cr 9.55  UBI 5.08 2000 cr 10.08  Dena 5.61 1000 cr 10.25  Perpetual bond do not have maturity dates  Under BASEL III, perpetual bond is more of quasi equity obligation SEBI Planning OFCD in IPOs (26/2/2015)  IPO could have Optionally Fully Convertible Debentures  If share price goes below lising, the investors gets principal and Interest  If share price goes above lisitng, the investor can convert debenture into shares and sell  Objective to give retail investor protection of capital  Between 2008-2011 out of 117 stocks, 72 that is 62 % were trading below issue price after six months of listing. Indian Railways (26/2/2015)  Currently, there are 676 projects worth Rs 1,57,883 crore sanctioned and out of these, only 317 projects could be completed and 359 projects remain to be completed which will now require as much as Rs 1,82,000 crore. S & P raises India GDP Forecast (26/2/2015)  S & P has raised Indian GDP forecast at 7.9% in FY 2016  China growth forecast has been reduced to 6.9% for this year Economic Survey (27/2/2015)  The Economic Survey for 2014-15 has projected a growth of     8.1- 8.5 percent for FY16, and said there was scope for big bang reforms. It sees growth rate for the current fiscal at 7.4 percent Gd In addition, the government should meet its medium term fiscal deficit target of 3 percent of GDP, the Survey said. The Survey estimates current account deficit at 1.3 percent of GDP this fiscal. They Survey saw turmoil in the Eurozone and interest rate policy in the US as key external risks. Core Sector Growth slows (2/3/2015)  Month        Core sector growth October 6.7 Nov 6.3 Dec 2.4 January 3.7 February 1.8 Lowest in last 13 months Core sector has 38% weightage in IIP index Fiscal Deficit rises (3/3/2015)  April January Fiscal deficit came at 107 %  It was earlier at 98.9 %  The targets for fiscal deficit has been now 3.9% and it has been extended to 3 years RBI cuts Repo Rate (4/3/2015)  RBI cuts the repo rate by 25 basis point  Repo rate now at 7.5%  Reverse Repo at 6.5%  CRR at 4 %  SLR at 21.5% HSBC PMI service index rises (4/3/2015)  Indian services companies on a monthly basis, rose to an eight-month high of 53.9 in February, as against 52.4 in the previous month, indicating a robust expansion across the sector.  A score above 50 indicates that the sector is expanding, while a figure below that level means contraction. US Job Data makes D street nervous (10/3/2015)  US jobless rate dropped to 5.5% in February as compared to 5.7% in January  US created 2,95,000 jobs in February beating forecast of 2,40,000 jobs ECB to start pumping (10/3/2015)  European Central Bank has started pumping 60 billion euro from Monday which is monthly buying  ECB had earlier announced bond buying of 1.14 trillion euro till sep 2016. CAD narrow to 1.6% (10/3/2015)  Current account deficit narrows to USD 8.2 bn in Q3 India’s current account deficit (CAD) narrowed to USD 8.2 billion or 1.6 percent of GDP in Q3 of 2014-15 from USD 10.1 billion or 2 percent of GDP in Q2.  The reduction in the CAD in Q3 2014-15 was primarily on account of net exports of services which picked up in q-o-q terms on the back of an improvement in net earnings through travel and software services, and lower net outflows under primary income (profit, dividend and interest). IMF raises India growth forecast (12/3/2015)  IMF has forecasted India growth to 7.5% for 2016  For 2015, IMF has forecasted Indian GDP 7.2% Govt clears Insurance Bill (13/3/2015)  Insruance Bill has been cleared by both houses  FDI limit raised to 49 % from 26 %  Total capital required Rs. 55000  Rs. 44000 in Life insruance and Rs. 11,000 crore in General insurance IIP slows down (12/3/2015)               IIP data for January 2015 came at 2.6% For December 2014 it was 3.2% Month IIP data April 2014 3.7 May 2014 5.6 June 2014 4.3 July 2014 0.9 Aug 2014 0.4 Sep 2014 2.5 Oct 2014 -2.6 Nov 2014 3.9 Dec 2014 3.2 Jan 2015 2.6 In IIP data 75% weightate is given to manufacturing sector CPI rises (12/3/2015)  CPI inflation increased to 5.37% as earlier of 5.19% mainly due to higher food prices  Rise in inflation could reduce the chances of rate cut Mutual fund industry (12/3/2015)  Mutual fund industry AUM crossed Rs. 12 lakh crore  Equity AUM at highest Rs. 3.8 lakh crore  Avg Equity net sales Rs. 8000 crore each month. Net equity sales this financial year Rs. 72000 crore  In February 2015 no of SIP 3.7 lakh sold highest in last few years  Industry has 70 lakh active SIP WPI falls further (16/3/2015)  WPI has come to -2.6%  Earlier it was -0.39% vs -0.11%  It raises fear of deflation  Food inflation seen at 7.74.% vs 8 % earlier  Unseasonal rainfall would cause higher inflaiton IMF HIGHLIGHTS (17/3/2015)                    Below are the highlights of IMF Chief Christine Lagarde's speech: Growth In US & UK To Remain Above Trend In Near-term India’s Corporate Sector Not Immune To $ Strengthening India’s Corp Sector Debt Doubled To $120Bn In Last 5Yrs India’s Corporate Sector Debt Has Risen Very Rapidly India Contained Local, External Vulnerability More Than Peers EMs Need To Prepare Well In Advance w.r.t Fed Decisions India Ahead Of Many Nations In Implementing Basel-III Stds Domestic demand yet to recover in Japan & Euro area. See growth rebound in U.S. while growth in U.K. remains above trend. Expect world economy to grow at 3.5% in 2015 & 3.7% in 2016. Global growth still fragile & uneven. Likely volatility in Fin Mkts could pose potential stability risks. United States expected to raise interest rates later this year. World looking at India to lead it to higher, sustainable growth path. RBI Governor has deftly steered Indian economy to safer waters. India ahead of many nations in implementing Basel-III Stds EMs need to prepare well in advance w.r.t Fed Decisions 'Among emerging markets, India is shining brightly‘ US DATA (19/3/2015)  USA Current Account deficit at 2.6% vs 2.4% of GDP  USA CAD at $ 410 billion  US Economy more than 67 % is depended on consumption Core sector data falls(31/3/2015)             Core sector data falls to 1.4% as compared to 1.8% month on month Coal production 11.7% vs 1.7% Cement production up April– feb core sector 3.8% vs 4.2 % yoy Month Core sector growth October 6.7 Nov 6.3 Dec 2.4 January 3.7 February 1.8 Lowest in last 13 months Core sector has 38% weight age in IIP index HSBC PMI shows growth (6/4/2015)  The HSBC Services Purchasing Managers' Index eased to 53.0 in March from February's eight-month high of 53.9.  A reading above 50 indicates growth, and March was the 11th straight month of expansion. India not tax heaven (7/4/2015)  FII are likely to come under the MAT (Minimum Alternate Tax) at 20 %  Tax Authorities have send notices to 90 Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPI)  FII have received tax notices for MAT for the year 2010-2011  Estimates suggest that MAT amount may touch $ 5 to 8 billion RBI keeps rate unchanged (7/4/2015)  RBI keeps repo rate in 7.5% and CRR at 4%  Inflation target for January 2016 at 6 % and January 2018 at 4 %  Inflation in August 2015 likely to come down at 4 % from current 6 % MUDRA BANK (8/4/2015)  Big industrial houses provide jobs to only 1.25 crore people, while small entrepreneurs employ 12 crore people.  There are about 5.77 crore small business units. It will also lay down "responsible financing practices" to ward off over indebtedness and ensure proper client protection principles and methods of recovery, besides development of standardized set of covenants governing last mile lending to micro enterprise.  Micro Units Development Refinance Agency (MUDRA) with a corpus of Rs 20,000 crore, and credit guarantee corpus of Rs 3,000 crore.  Shishu would cover loans up to Rs 50,000 while Kishor above Rs 50,000 and up to Rs 5 lakh. Tarun category will cover loans of above Rs 5 lakh and upto Rs 10 lakh.  RBI 5:25 Scheme (8/4/2015)  Under the new scheme banks can stretch this repayment schedule to 25 years with the option of refinancing at the end of every 5 years and can even selling this loan to another bank  According to top sources over Rs 50,000 crore worth of loans are up for refinancing with the lenders.  Bhushan Steel has approached bankers to refinance its debt worth Rs 40,000 crore. Adani Power is also looking to refinance partly its debt worth Rs 45,000.  Other companies that are looking to refinance their debt under the new scheme are, GMR Infra with a debt of Rs 4,000 crore and Essar Steel with a debt of Rs 38,000 crore IMF's Lagarde sees 'new reality' of mediocre growth (10/4/2015)  Mediocre economic growth could become the "new reality," leaving millions stuck without jobs and increasing the risks to global financial stability, the head of the International Monetary Fund warned on Thursday.  In its last forecasts in January, the IMF said the global economy grew 3.3 percent last year, advanced economies expanded by 1.8 percent and emerging markets grew 4.4 percent. Inflation eases (13/4/2015)  Retail inflation, as measured by the consumer price index (CPI), slowed to 5.17 percent year-on-year in March, government data released today showed, compared to 5.37 percent in February.  The fall was largely broad-based with food inflation, which constitutes nearly half the index, coming in at 6.14 percent compared to 6.79 percent in February,  Clothing and footwear slowed to 6.27 percent YoY from 6.38 percent, though fuel and light inflation perked up a bit. China slows down (23/4/2015)  China PMI has come 49.2 as compared to earlier project of 49.6  People's Republic of China slashed the reserve requirement ratio (RRR) of major banks. The 100 basis point-cut to 18.5 percent is the biggest since 2008, during the height of the global financial crisis.  CHINA GDP is now projected at 7 % which has come down from 7.4 % which was 24 years low MAT ON FII (23/4/2015)  Government has clarified that MAT (20 % ) will not be applicable on countries where DTAA (Double Taxation Avoidance Treaty)  31% of FII flows comes from Singapore and Mauritius which we have DTAA MAT from US, UK still worry (24/4/2015)  US, UK and Luxemberg account for 50 % of the total FPI which would have to pay MAT at 20 %  PE Fund managers are also scary that IT department may ask them also to pay MAT  Mauritius and Singapore account for 33 % of total FPI flows RBI revises Priority sector lending (24/4/2015)  All banks have to lend 40 % of their net credit to priority sector ledning  Foreing Banks with less than 20 branches have to meet target by 20192020  Medium enterprise, social infrastructure, renewable energy form part of priority sector Rural India Debt Profile (24/4/2015)  More than 50 % of agriculture household in country are indebted  Avg amount of loan outstanding is Rs. 47000  Andhra Pradesh has highest % of 92.9 % of household indebted  All India Average is 51.9 % US slows down (30/4/2015)  US Economy has slowed down as its GDP came to 1 % as compared to 2.2% last quarter  US Fed Reserve has postponed the decision to rise interest rates China PMI slows (4/5/2015)  Chinese PMI has come to 48.2 as compared to estimate of 49.6  China slowing down cause of concern  Worlds largest consumer of commodities MF flows highest in April in last 7 years (4/5/2015)  Mutual fund managers pumped in over Rs 7,600 crore in equity markets in April, making it their highest net inflow in more than seven years.  This was the highest net inflow in equities since January 2008, when fund managers poured in Rs 7,703 crore. Besides, fund managers invested a net amount of Rs 28,650 crore in debt markets last month.  The huge inflows also helped the MF industry reach around Rs 12 lakh crore mark in assets under management (AUM) at the end of the financial year. FII selling spree (8/5/2015)  FII have sold stocks wroth Rs. 6500 in May 2015  In April 2015, FII sold stocks wroth Rs. 1100 crore  FII not comfortable with MAT issue CPI eases (12/5/2015)  CPI inflation has come to 4.87% as compared to estimate of 5.04%  Last month it was 5.17%  Easing of inflation calls for Interest rate cut IIP falls sharply (12/5/2015)  IIP falls to 2.1% as compared to 5% last month  Fall in IIP shows that industry still not picking up momentum  IIP data lowest since October 2014. WPI FALLS (14/5/2015)  WPI has came to -2.65%  This shows that economy is slowing down  Continuous     slowdown of WPI means that manufacturing is slowing Food inflation has come down. Food articles inflation at 5.73% Vs 6.31% (MoM). Its indicating that deflation has set in This is fifth successive month of negative WPI after the flat reading for November. While a downtrend in inflation was much awaited, sustained deflation spells bad news for the economy as a whole. That is because producers will start cutting down on production because of weak demand, which in turn will further reduce economic activity and lead to job losses or poor wage growth Bad loans turning rotten now (21/5/2015)  Loans worth Rs. 56995 crores restructured loans classified as failed as on 31st march 2015.  Last year, Rs. 29980 crores of loans were classified as failed  90 % rise in debt recast failure  Rs. 2.86 lakh crore restructured loans as on March 31,2015 FII seek softer license (25/5/2015)  FII hold $ 328 billion in India as asset under management  They hold little more than 51 % of shares in free float  In BSE 200, FII holds 25.6 % FII sell off continues (25/5/2015)  FPI investments in January were higher at Rs 33,688 crore and more than halved to Rs. 15,266 crore in April.  In May things took a turn for the worse as FPIs withdrew an estimated Rs 14,674 crore (USD 2.3 billion) during the month so far, a report stated adding that the outflow was of Rs 5,867 crore from the equities and another Rs 8,807 crore from the debt markets. FII ownership pattern (25/5/2015)  Sector MSCI %  Consumer Discre 8.1  Consumer staples 13.3  Cement 1.9  Energy 9.3  Financials 18.1  Industrials 5.6  Metals Mining 5.1  Healthcare 8.4  Real Estate 0.4  Software 23.3  Telecom 2.5  Utilities 2.8 FII hold % 10.7 9.2 2.5 5.3 32.6 5.7 3.0 6.8 0.8 15.2 2.7 2.9 GDP at 7.5 % (1/6/2015)  GDP has come at 7.5%  GVA which is Gross Value Added is at 6.1% which has come down from 6.6% and 8.4% in previous quarters  GVA is total output minus consumption – value of goods and services produced  GVA is actually what is left with consumer after taxes and subsidies are taken away by govt. RBI cuts Repo Rate (2/6/2015)  RBI cuts repo rate by 25 basis point  Repo Rate now at 7.25%  Reverse Repo Rate at 6.25%  CRR unchanged at 4 %  SLR at 21.5 % unchanged RBI policy highlights (2/6/2015)  Monsoon to be critical factor for inflation  Inflation target revised from 5.8% to 6%  Gross value added revised downward from 7.8% to 7.6%  Bad loans main concerns for banks  Geo political risk still persists large India may face $3.8 bn outflow if China A enters MSCI  India's current weightage is 7.49 percent and China’s is 24.88 percent in the MSCI EM index. Post inclusion, India's weight may reduce to 7.13 percent while China may stand at 28.51 percent in the index. Hence, it is more likely that MSCI will gradually include the A shares to avoid market volatility.  India may see selling worth USD 3.8 billion and exchange traded fund ( ETF )-related selling worth USD 0.9 billion as India's weight age in the index could reduce as a result. CAD lowers (15/6/2015)  CAD has reduced to 0.2% as compared to 1.6 % earlier  CAD reduction makes BOP more strong India's trade deficit narrows in May (16/6/2015)  India's trade deficit for the month of May came in at a three-month low at USD 10.41 billion, marginally lower than USD 10.99 in April. Imports for the month too came in at a three-month low.  India exported USD 22.34 billion worth of goods in May versus USD 22.05 billion month-on-month. India's exports in the year-ago period stood at USD 27.99 billion, which is 20.19 percent lower in dollar terms and 14.14 percent lower in rupee terms.  Export data continues to be at a low level and this trend may continue for some time, which is worrying as it will spill into the IIP number  Both imports and exports are staying low and prices have a role to play in this. Weak exports is a concern despite weak rupee. Greece troubles again (25/6/2015)  Greece is on verge of default  The government has 12 more seats for majority.  There is possibility for new election  Further economic uncertainty would be added India among top 10 countries to attract high FDIs: UNCTAD  India’s investment inflows grew 23 percent whereas global inflows reduced 16 percent last year. Nazareth also pointed out that in 2014, the country received USD 34 billion in comparison to USD 45 billion in 2007.  Singapore, Hong Kong and all the other BRIC have crossed USD 50 billion in annual FDI inflows," she said, adding "we are the only BRIC that has not. We have not got even USD 50 billion in annual inflows in one year". India Inc Profit to GDP ratio slips on Interest cost (29/6/2015)            Profit to GDP ratio fell for 5th consecutive year to 4.1% as compared to 10 year average of 5.3 % The 10 year average has been 9 to 14 % in developed economies while 5 to 8 % for developing economies Operating Profit margin for BSE 500 companies have fell to 18.18% lowest in one decade from 10 year average of 21% Average interest paid on debt increased to 7.35% higher than 10 year average of 5.81% Average manufacturing capacity utilisation has fallen to 72% as compared to 83% Components 10 Year CAGR Growth Revenue 19% Operating Profit 15% Interest 28% Depreciation 21% Net Profit 10% Euro Zone Debt to GDP Ratio (29/6/2015)  Country  Greece  Italy  Spain  UK  Germany Debt to GDP % 175.1 132.6 93.9 90.6 78.4 VC Funds Coming in Droves (29/6/2015)  Year Deals  2013 246  2014 297  2015 197  Angel Deal  2013 274  2014 313  2015 221 VC Funds ($ billion) 1.43 2.34 2.46 $ 75 million $ 121 million $ 221 million IPO coming in big way (29/6/2015)  30 IPO worth Rs. 20,000 crores are in pipeline for Indian stock market  20 IPO have got SEBI clearance Core Sector Growth rises (30/6/2015)  Core sector growth rises to 4.4% in May vs decline of 0.4% in April  The eight core sector industries include coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizer, steel, cement and electricity  For the April-May period, output rose 2.1 percent against 4.7 percent year-on-year (YoY). PMI also slows (1/7/2015)  The HSBC India Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 51.3 in June from 52.6 in May, amid slowest rise in new orders since September 2014.  it was reflective of the continuing weakness in manufacturing activity.  MF assets base perks up by Rs 39,000 cr in Apr-Jun qtr(money control)  The country's 44 fund houses together had an average assets under management (AUM) of Rs 11.88 lakh crore during January-March quarter of 2014-15 as compared to Rs 12.27 lakh crore in the first quarter of current financial year, as per the latest data available with Association of Mutual Funds in India (AMFI).  HDFC Mutual Fund (MF) has retained its top position with an average AUM of Rs 1.65 lakh crore, a surge in asset base by 2.1 cent, while ICICI Prudential MF's asset base grew by 4.7 percent to Rs 1.55 lakh crore.,Reliance MF (Rs 1.45 lakh crore) Birla Sunlife (Rs 1.25 lakh crore) and UTI MF (Rs 92,730 crore) in terms of average AUM in the first quarter of 2015-16. Govt Agri push (2/7/2015)  The Union Cabinet yesterday approved the Pradhan Mantri Krishi Sinchayi Yojana and a National Policy For Skill Development & Entrepreneur ship.  Through the Rs 50,000 crore Krishi Sinchai Yojana, the government over the next five years will focus on improving irrigation in non rain-fed areas as well as strive to improve water efficiency through the country.  65% of the total agriculture land (142 million hectare) does not have irrigation facility  Only 35% of the total agriculture land has irrigation facility  Socio Economic and Caste Census (6/7/2015)  Total Household in country 24.39 crore  Households in rural india 17.91 crore  Household with kuccha walls 13.25%(2.37 crore)  No adult member between 18 to 59 age 3.64% (65.15 lakh household)  Female headed household with no adult male member 3.85% (68.96 lakh) Socio Economic and Caste Census (6/7/2015)  SC / ST households 3.86 crore (21.53%)  Household with no literate adult 4.21 crore (23.52%)  Landless households deriving major part of income from manual labour 5.37 crore (29.97%) Greece impact (8/7/2015)  Rank  1  2  3  4  5  6  7  8  9  10  92 Country % share in India trade China 9.5 USA 8.5 UAE 7.8 Saudi Arab 5.2 Switzerland 3.1 Germany 2.7 Hong Kong 2.5 Indonesia 2.5 South Korea 2.4 Singapore 2.3 Greece 0.1 China in mess (8/7/2015)  Chinese stock market down 30 % from mid June  Losses $ 3.4 trillion in market cap in 3 weeks  Trading stops in 203 mainland Chinese companies.  China regulator has given $ 20 trillion to 21 brokerage houses for proprietary trading  China has Debt to GDP ratio of 200 %  China is biggest trading partner of India at 9.5% of total trade with India Oil and gold prices down (27/7/2015)  Crop area is 26 % higher than last year as monsoon has done well so far  Monsoon deficit now just 5 % only  Gold prices are 4 year low  Oil import bill has fallen by 40 % in the first quarter  Oil I snow just 23 % of imports as compared to 35 % in Q1 last fiscal P notes back in focus (27/7/2015)      P notes are offshore derivative instruments used by foreign investors who are interested in betting on Indian securities but not keen on registering with the capital market regulator SEBI. P notes are issued by foreign brokerages registered with SEBI or foreign arms of domestic brokerages to overseas investors. The broker buys the Indian securities and issues P notes to the client for a fee. Positions held through P notes are Rs 2,75,436 crores or 11.5 % of assets under custody of foreign portfolio investors which is Rs. 23,86,457 crores In October 16, 2007, SEBI had put discussion paper o P notes The next 3 days markets came down by 9% on october 17 leading to to trades being halted for one hour. In October 2007 the P notes holding had touched 50 % of the total FII assets under custody Greece details 3 bailout package (27/7/2015)money  The European Union, International Monetary Fund and European Central Bank make up the so-called "troika" of Greece's creditors.  In hammering out details of a third bailout package for Greece of up to 86 billion euros (USD 94 billion), those three organizations will be joined by a fourth negotiator, the European Stability Mechanism. SIP gives more (29/7/2015)  Average Return for 15 year period have been 21.54%  The worst performer schemes have also given 13.71%  SIP best way to make wealth in the long term investment  Rs. 10,000 per month invested for 15 years means Rs. 18 lakh becomes 1.09 crore China slows down (10/8/2015)  China exports fell lowest in last 4 months  China may give more easing  It has reduced its Reserve Ratio Requirement by 1 % to 18.5 % Greece to finalize deal (10/8/2015)  Greece has to finalize deal worth $ 86 billion euro on Tuesday  Greece has to pay by 20 August to international lenders  Greece Debt to GDP ratio is 177%  Unemployment ratio is 62% Banks converting non paid loan into equity (10/8/2015)  Banks to convert part of Rs 2400 crore dues of hydro power unit to 51 % equity  Special Debt Restructuring (SDR) scheme allows banks to acquire 51 % sake in stressed asset by converting part of debt into equity  Another company where banks converted Stressed asset into equity was Electro steel where banks converted Rs. 780 crore debt into equity China to depreciate yuan (11/8/2015)  Equity markets in China were choppy early Tuesday, on the back of unexpected news that the People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing a one-time depreciation of nearly 2 percent to the Chinese yuan.  China has artificially managed its currency  It does not give real picture of the economy Make In India starts (10/8/2015)  China XIAOMI has tied up with Taiwan FOXCONN to     make mobiles in India The manufacturing plant would be in Sri City Plant in Andhra Pradesh The phone sis Redmi 2 Prime priced at 6999 Rs Foxconn has started earlier plant in Brazil to make phones there It took 18 months in Brazil to start manufacturing which is 3 times the time in India China devalues its currency (12/8/2015)  China has devalued its currency by 2%  Yuan is at its 3 year low  Makes Chinese exports more competitive  China accounts for 9.5% of total foreign trade with India  US also condemned it for unfair export advantage Gold Rises as China fumbles (12/8/2015)  Gold gained for a fifth session in a row on Wednesday to trade near a three-week high, benefiting from weaker equities after China's devaluation of the yuan stoked fears of a currency war.  Weaker yuan would make it more expensive for China, the world's top consumer, to import gold, potentially extending weak Chinese demand that has been the case since 2014. CPI cools off (12/8/2015)  CPI inflation July for 3.8 % as compared to 5.01% last month  CPI inflation lower data raises hope of rate cut IIP rises (12/8/2015)  IIP data has increased to 3.8% from 3 % last month  Earlier IIP had shown huge volatility  It was -0.4% then it went 4.4% then fell at 3% then it came at 3.8%  The inputs used in IIP data needs to be checked Trade deficit widens (17/8/2015)  Trade deficit widens from $ 10 billion to $ 12 billion  Imports at $ 35 billion  Exports at $ 23 billion  Indian exports slowdown due to world economies in mess  China slowdown, Japan deflation, Europe grappling with Greece issues UAE Strategic partner (18/8/2015)  UAE and India has two way trade of $ 60 billion  India exports $ 30 billion to UAE, its second largest export destination  7 million Indian lives and work in UAE  India received remittances worth $ 50 billion Moody lowers India GDP forecast (19/8/2015)  Moody Investor service has reduced India forecast of GDP from 7.5% to 7%  Reasons are below average monsoon, reforms stalling RBI gives payment banks (20/8/2015)  RBI gave 11 applicants permission for Payment Banks  Payment banks will take deposit, convey remittances and dispense payment to recipients which would be useful to send money.  They will not engage in lending. India best performer market in lst three months (20/8/2015)  Index           3 month % PE Nifty 1.64 17.14 Nikkie 225 0.98 19.14 MSCI world -3.30 17.27 Dow jones -4.37 15.82 Kospi (Korea) -8.56 11.88 Dax Index(Germany) -9.25 13.40 Shangai (china) -14.11 15.51 Ibovespa (Brazil) -14.50 12.91 MSCI Emerging -18.52 11.81 The domestic Mutual Funds in India have deployed Rs. 17000 crores in past 3 months while FII have been net sellers Rs. 945 crores in same period Indian rupee still strong (20/8/2015)  Currency  Brazil real  Turkish Lira  Malaysian ringgit  Indonesia rupia  South Africa rand  South Korea won  Rusian Rouble  Indian Rupee  China Rembini Close rate 3.48 2.86 4.10 13822.0 12.89 1182.81 65.28 65.32 6.39 YTD % fall 23.69 18.27 14.69 10.38 10.21 7.76 6.97 3.48 2.96 Greece PM resigns (20/8/2015)  Greece PM has resigned  New elections on 20th September  Greece paid 86 billion Euro the third largest bailout to Greece  In last 5 years, there have been 3 times elections  Greece total debt is 312 billion Euros which is unsustainable as per IMF  India has only 0.1% trade with Greece China PMI falls to 6 year low (21/8/2015)  The final Caixin China PMI dropped to a two-year low of 47.8 in July, while the official China PMI avoided falling into contraction territory by coming in at 50 for the month.  Caixin's China PMI data tends to focus on smaller and medium-sized companies, filling a niche that isn't covered by the official data.  A reading above 50 indicates expanding activity and one below 50 signals contraction. Market falls like pin of cards (24/8/2015)  SENSEX falls like pin of cards  SENSEX down 1700 points  Highest intraday fall since July 2009  Highest intraday fall in mid cap since July 2008 Emerging markets fall (25/8/2015)  Country Days Fall  India -5.94%  Brazil -1.99%  Russia -4.85%  China -8.49%  South Africa -3.34%  Mexico -2.09% YTD fall -11.76% -31.88% -27.01% -3.75% -16.89% -15.82% Indian investors wealth losses (25/8/2015)  Indian markets saw Rs. 7 lakh crore of investor wealth wiped off  Rupee went to 2 year low at 66.64  Sensex went down by 1624 points or 5.94% China cuts interest rates (25/8/2015)  China cuts interest rates with immediate effect  The People's Bank of China cut its main interest rate by     0.25 percentage points to 4.6% after two days of stock market turmoil. It is the fifth interest rate cut since November and will take effect on Wednesday. China rate cut clearly shows that China economy is in mess The Reserve Ratio Requirement has been reduced by 0.50 % China has Debt to GDP ratio of 282 % Primary market action (27/8/2015)  Company           IPO price Power Mech 640 Syngene Int. 250 Manpasand Beverage 320 PNC Infratech 378 UFO Movie 625 MEP infra 63 VRL Logistics 205 Inox Wind 325 Adlabs Ent 180 Ortel Comm 181 CMP 585 317 411 447 552 42 393 345 124 202 India Inc loss only 3.7% of Global Mcap Erosion (27/8/2015)  Country            YTD Fall% % contribution fall in world markets World -6.25 USA -7.32 21.00 China 1.15 41.00 Japan 2.44 11.85 Hong Kong -9.80 14.00 UK -5.08 2.12 France 2.66 0.43 Germany -2.85 0.18 Canada -20.28 1.82 India -7.57 3.70 World markets corrected by $ 12 trillion in 2015 but India accounted for only 3.7 % of total loss. Indian Construction slows down (27/8/2015)  Across India 40 % of the new constructions housing has stopped  7,00,000 unsold flats pan india  Cement demand grew at 0.9% as compared to 9.6 % IIP slows down (31/8/2015)  The combined Index of Eight Core Industries stands at 168.0 in July, 2015, which was 1.1 % higher compared to the index of July, 2014.  Its cumulative growth during April to July, 2015-16 was 2.1 %.  The Eight Core Industries comprise nearly 38 % of the weight of items included in the Index of Industrial Production (IIP). GDP slows (31/8/2015)  GDP data slows to 7 % from 7.5 %  Gross Value Added was at 7.1% vs 7.4 % year on year  GVA is net output of goods which is taxes added in GDP minus subsidies China slows again (1/9/2015)  China official PMI came to 49.7 which is below the 50 base reading  Below 50 means there is contraction in the economy  The final Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) came in at 47.3 in August, above a preliminary reading of 47.1 but down from 47.8 in July. India core sector slows (1/9/2015)  8 core sector growth came at 1.1% vs 3% month on month  Core sector has 38 % weight age in IIP  The eight core sector industries include coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizer, steel, cement and electricity.  The core sector last year was 2.1 % FII sells (9/9/2015)  FII have sold shares worth Rs. 21500 crores in August and till September 8  In August alone FII have sold shares worth Rs. 17000 crores  Markets have lost 2500 points in last 2 months NRI Data (9/9/2015)  NRI (Non Resident Indians) are 22 million (2 crore 20 lacs) globally  They have investible surplus of $ 360 billion investible assets  UAE alone has 7 million Indians  UAE NRI has send $ 50 billion as NRI remittances Bad loans challenge (Times of India 9/9/2015)  Total bad loans Rs. 2.60 lakh crore  30 top defaulters account for Rs. 95000 crore bad loans  Stressed and Bad loans account for 11.1% of total loans S & P cuts Brazil to Junk (11/9/2015)  S & P has put Brazil to Junk because of rising debt and political turnmoil  Brazil GDP has grown to 7.5 % in 2010 when there was commodity boom  But after then market crashed IIP data rises (11/9/2015)  IIP data has risen to 4.2% as against 3.8% earlier month  Manufacturing has 75 % weight age  Mining has 14 % weight age CPI and WPI inflation comes down (14/9/2015)  CPI inflation comes down 3.66% from 3.78%  CPI food inflation has come to 2.20% as compared to 2.15% which is flat  vegetable price inflation stands at -6.36 percent against 7.93 percent (MoM).  Food and beverages account for 46 percent of the CPI basket WPI further weakens (14/9/2015)  WPI for straight 10th month has entered negative -4.95% for august vs -4.05% july  weakening of rural demand and that is corroborated by all other leading indicators like tractor sales, two wheeler sales or fertilizer sale  This number is sustaining at a level which is near 40 year low. So, as a whole it is very clear that there is a very strong trend of disinflation in the system. India could grow 8 % by 2020 (15/9/2015)  Goldman Sach has projected India to grow by 8 % by 2020  Indian economy could gain over 300 million more internet users  50 million more high school graduates  2000 bank accounts being opened every day  800 government services have moved online reducing rep tape CPI and WPI inflation falling (15/9/2015)  Month  March  April  May  June  July  August CPI 5.25 4.87 5.0 5.4 3.69 3.66 WPI -2.33 -2.43 -2.2 -2.13 -4.05 -4.95 Chinese imports in tyre industry (15/9/2015)  China exports 1 lac Chinese tyre into India  Mostly used in commercial vehicles  Cost of Chinese tyre is Rs. 14000 vs Rs. 20000 of Indian tyre  MRF has reduced its tyre price by 8 % in last one year Bank of Japan continues its monetary easing (15/9/2015)  BOJ has decided to continue its Yen 80 trillion  Japan economy is facing deflation  Prices go down but still no demand picks up  The policy decision was done vote 8-1 Trade Deficit (15/9/2015)  August trade deficit flat at $12.48 bn, exports fall  The big setback comes on the exports front, which     stood at USD 21.27 billion versus USD 23.14 billion MoM. Exports are a 5 year low since october 2010 Exports are down 20 % from last year The rise in Gold imports from $ 2.9 billion to $ 4.7 billion is disturbing Weakness in global markets have started showing effects on Indian exports Trade Deficit (15/9/2015)  Decline in exports in many sectors  Engineering goods down by 24.2%  Gold imports rise by 140 %  Exports $21.3 billion down by 20.3%  Imports $ 33.7 billion down by 10%  Job losses in many sectors possible USA GDP Rises (28/9/2015)  USA GDP has come to 3.9% as compared to estimate of 3.7%  US Economy showing strong signs of growth  Rate hike eminent in December China industry slows (28/9/2015)  China industry slows by 8.8% year on year  Rising cost and falling prices is killing industry  The inventory of industrial firms increased by 5.7 percent in August from a year ago, easing from 6.8 percent growth in July and marking the second consecutive month of slower gains RBI cuts repo rate (29/9/2015)  RBI cuts repo rate by 50 bps to 6.75%  Reverse Repo at 5.75%  CRR unchanged at 4 %  SLR at 21.5 %  Corporate investment weak  Capacity utilization weak  Cuts GDP growth from 7.6% to 7.4%  CPI inflation target for January 2016 at 5.8%  Will work with govt to pass 125 bps benefit to consumers  Fiscal deficit target of 3.9% to be met  In march 2011 the repo rate was at 6.75% August Core sector rises (30/9/2015)  August core sector growth at 2.6 % vs 1.1% month on month  Fertilizer at 12.6% vs 8.6%  Coal at 0.4% vs 0.3%  Natural gas at 3.7% vs 4.4%  Petroleum Refinery at 5.8% vs 2.9%  Steel at -5.9% vs 2.6%  Electricity at 5.6% vs 2.9% China slows further (1/10/2015)  China Private survey Caixin/Markit has contracted to 47.2  It is at 6 years low  Again proves that China is contracting  Government's official gauge of factory activity improved with the manufacturing PMI rising to 49.8, up from August's three-year low of 49.7 but still marking two straight months of decline. India a bright spot in slowing world economy: IMF (1/10/2015)  China slowing down  Euro zone still facing uncertainity  Brazil and Russia facing economic difficulties  Modest pick up in 2016  India remains bright spot  USA and UK doing robust well World bank trims china growth (5/10/2015)  World bank has reduced China GDP growth from 7.1 % to 6.9%  China slowdown & USA interest rates are key risk to East Asia pacific  Growth in developing East Asia excluding China is expected to hold steady in 2015 at 4.6 percent before accelerating to 4.9 percent in 2016, the World Bank said. Those were down from previous forecasts of 5.1 percent growth in 2015 and 5.4 percent in 2016. GDP to exceed 7.5%, taxes to fall short of target: FinMin  Economy to grow at 7.5%  The revenue target would be short by Rs. 50,000 crores  The total tax revenues are likely to be around Rs 14 lakh crore in the current fiscal, as against the budget estimate of Rs 14.5 lakh crore. IMF sounds warning (6/10/2015)  IMF cuts world GDP growth rate projection from 3.3% to 3.1%  Cuts China growth rate from 7.1% to 6.9%  It also cut India's 2015 GDP growth forecast from 7.5 percent to 7.3 percent IMF projection for 2015 (7/10/2015)  Country  World  USA  Eurozone  China  India 2015 3.1 2.6 1.5 6.8 7.3 2016 3.6 2.8 1.6 6.3 7.5 Mutual funds add 12000 accounts per day in FY16(8/10/2015)  Mutual funds are adding 12000 new investors per day in equity segment  Total mutual fund equity investors have reached 33.8 million from 31.7 million  In september Rs 77000 crore have been pulled out from mutual funds the highest outflow in last 6 month.  In August Rs. 46000 have been withdrawn from mutual funds FII investments (12/10/2015) Rs.Crores  Month  January  Feb  March  April  May  June  July  August  Sep  October  Total Equity 12919 11476 12078 11721 -5768 -3344 5319 -16877 -6475 1607 22655 Debt 20769 13088 8645 3612 -8504 1737 4 -647 692 406 39802 IIP data positive (12/10/2015)  IIP data has increased from 4.2 % to 6.4% which is very positive  CPI has increased from 3.66% from 4.49%  Both will give elbow room to RBI for reducing interest rates Demat Accounts rise (14/10/2015)  9 lakh demat accounts opened in first six month of FY16  In 2013-2014, 8 lakh demat accounts were opened  In 2014-2015, 16 lakh demat accounts were added.  Total demat account in country is 2.5 crore  Students are main ones opening demat accounts India exports fall 25% (16/10/2015)  Indian exports fall for straight 10th month  Exports have fallen by 21% by $ 21 billion  Imports have fallen by 25 % by $ 32 billion  Full year exports could reach $ 265 to $ 270 billion  Falling exports threat to Manufacturing dream of PM Euro to give stimulus (27/10/2015)  Eurozone to give stimulus if required  Stuimulus can continue beyond 2016 also  This shows that Eurozone still in doll drums  No clear signs of improvement  World Economy still fragile China slows down (27/10/2015)  China has cut its Reserve Ratio Requirement again  In last 11 months, 6 times rate cut has been done  Its GDP has come 6.9% as compared to 6.8% Ease of doing business (28/10/2015)  India moved up to 130 rank out of 189 countries as per world bank  Ease of doing business criteria  Earlier India was at 142 rank  Upward movement of 12 ranks for country like India is real good FDI in PSU banks may rise (29/10/2015)  FDI in PSU banks may rise to 49 % from current 20%  This may be done in budget 2016  Currently in Private banks FDI limite is at 74% Realty fails to build up (29/10/2015)  Real Estate is fast losing its charm from HNI investors  HNI investors are moving to invest in start ups  Average investment in start up is Rs. 1.3 crore but it could be as low as Rs. 10 lakhs  In last 3 years investments in Real estate completely stuck as no price movement Gold falls on US rate hike fear (money control 2/11/2015)  SPDR Gold Trust, the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.3 percent to 692.26 tonnes on Friday.  India world's 7th most valued 'nation brand'; US on top  US is at top with valuation of $ 19 billion  Next is China and thrid Germany  UK is fourth  India is 7th with rise of 32 per cent to $ 2.1 billion  Incredible India slogan has went well in rise of brand valuation Larger female workforce can add Rs 46lk cr to GDP: McKinsey  Bridging the gender gap in India could add Rs 46 lakh crore (or abour USD 0.7 trillion) to the country's gross domestic product (GDP) in 2025.  India's share of women's contribution to GDP is at 17 percent, much lower than the global average of 37 percent, and the lowest among all ten regions in the world analyzed by Mckinsey Global. Japan shrinks into recession (16/11/2015)  Japan GDP shrinks to 0.8% as compared to estimates of 0.2%  Back into recession  Japan thus slipped back into technical recession, which is defined as two consecutive quarters of contraction  After suffering one last year due to the hit on consumer spending from a sales tax hike in April 2014. Indian corporates raised Rs. 3 lakh crore (15/11/2015)  Indian corporates have raised Rs. 2,90,000 crores mainly through debt route  Rs. 2,44,000 through debt route and Rs. 46000 crore through equity route  In the equity segment, money was raised through the preferential route (Rs 20,874 crore) followed by qualified institutional placements (Rs 12,658 crore), rights issue (Rs 7,760 crore) and initial public offers (Rs 4,904 crore). Bonds: Growing uncertainity (China Daily Nov 13-19,pg 5)  Amount of Dollar denominated debt of emerging     economies -- $ 858 billion 61% of Asian debt is alone with China Emerging Economies local currency debt in 2014 --- $ 8.7 trillion Since year 2000 rise of debt average 14.5 % annually of Asian sovereign debt Strong dollar will hurt all Asian economies since their currencies would become more weak Exporters get incentive (19/11/2015)  Exporters will get 3% interest sub vention for 5 years period  This will boost exports  Exports are at 5 years low Japan continues loose monetary policy (19/11/2015)  Bank of Japan has decided to continue with its 80 trillion yen stimulus plan  Japan has slipped into recession after its GDP contracted by 0.8% as against predicted 0.2%  Japan has zero interest rate policy NSE BSE Volumes fall lowest in 2015 (19/11/2015)  BSE and NSE have witnessed falled of 12 % in cash market volumes  The FO volumes are down by 24 %  Increase in lot size by SEBI has increased the margin requirement 7th pay commission to give report (19/11/2015)  7th pay commission will submit its report on 19th Nov 2015 at 7.30 pm to government.  There is proposed hike of 15 % in salaries  This is being opposed by Trade Unions as pay commission give their recommendations once in 10 years. Promoter Pleding of shares at 6 year high (19/11/2015) Mint  434 companies of the BSE 500 companies have seen Promoter pledging of shares to 6 year high  The quarter ended September saw rise of 12.28% as compared to 6.96% in March 2009  Rise in promoter pledging means there is distress financing and companies balance sheets are weak. Real estate firms face finance risk (19/11/2015)  25 property developers which account for 95% of market capitalization face risk of refinancing debt of Rs. 30,000 crores  Lack of demand and high funding cost to make real estate projects go is the main reason  There is substantial fall in demand of housing due to high interest rates and unaffordable pricing  Total debt taken to build homes surged 25 % to Rs 61,500 crores in 2014-15 compared to Rs. 48,800 crore in 2013 GDP at 7.4 % (1/12/2015)  GDP grew at 7.4 % vs 7% quarter on quarter (september         quarter) This is good indicator as it was on high base of 8.4% last year Particular Q1 Q2 Agriculture 1.9 2.2 Mining 4 3.2 Manufacturing 7.2 9.3 Construction 6.9 2.6 Electricity 3.2 6.7 Services 8.8 8.9 Core Sector slows (1/12/2015)  8 infrastructure sector that make up the core sector are Coal,           Crude oil, Natural Gas, Refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement, electricity together have 38 % weight age in IIP . Month Core Sector % Month Core sector Oct 2014 9 July 2015 1.1 Nov 2014 6.7 Aug 2015 2.6 Dec 2014 2.4 Sep 2015 3.2 Jan 2015 1.8 Oct 2015 3.2 Feb 2015 1.4 March 2015 -0.1 April 2015 -0.4 May 2015 4.4 June 2015 3.0 Banks to clean balance sheet by 2017 (2/12/2015)  Banks have been told by RBI to clean their balance sheet by           2017 Year Gross NPA (Rs. crore) 2013 1.85 lakh crore 2014 2.51 lakh crore 2015 3.1 lakh crore (24% rise) Top 5 banks Gross NPA SBI 56,834 PNB 24,945 Canara bank 14,021 Bank of India 29,894 Bank of Baroda 23,710 Oil Prices per barrel (2/12/2015)  Year  2010  2011  2012  2013  2014  2015  2016 $ per barrel 79 104 105 105 96 45 (Projected 52 by IMF) 50 (IMF projection) Manufacturing slows to 2 year low in November (2/12/2015)  Manufacturing has been at 25 months low as per Private      survey conducted Nikkie Manufacturing Purchasing Manager Index contracted to 50.3 In Nov as compared to 50.7 in October Fall for 4th consecutive month Low demand in rural economy Rising cost 1822 companies gave result which shows that Revenue up by 1.5% and Net profit up by 1.6% RBI keeps rates unchanged (2/12/2015)  RBI has kept Repo rate unchanged at 6.75% and Reverse Repo at 5.75%  RBI kept CRR at 4% and SLR at 21.5%  In 2015 RBI has done rate cut of 125 basis points  Banks has passed only 60 basis points to customers ECB cuts deposit rate (4/12/2015)  European Central Bank has cut the deposit rate by 0.1%  Kept lending rate at 0.5%  ECB will continue to buy 60 billion euro bond buying programme till March 2017  Clearly indicating more pain left for Europe Startup world Pink Season (11/12/2015)  Around 3720 employees lost their jobs in 20 starts up in last 6 months  18% of employees lost their jobs  15% of startups layoff 30% of employees  30% layoff in ecommerce companies  20% layoff in consumer companies Reasons for layoff in startups (11/12/2015)  30% unable to meet growth projections  20% inaccessible institutional funding for follow up rounds  20% Business model pivot  10% need to streamline operations  15% automation  5% potential acquisition RBI cuts SLR by 100 bps in 4 stage reduction (11/12/2015)  SLR is what banks invest in government securities  Currently SLR is 21.5%  Timetable for SLR reduction  21.25% on April 2, 2016  21 % on July 9, 2016  20.75% on October 1, 2016  20.50% on January 1, 2017 2015 best year for IPO (11/12/2015)  In 2013, only 3 IPO got listed and raised Rs. 1284 crores  In 2014, 6 IPO hit market and raised Rs. 1261 crores  In 2015 companies raised Rs. 15000 crores  In 2010 last 64 companies had raised Rs. 37000 crores in IPO IIP data rises (11/12/2015)  IIP data has come to 9.8% as compared to 3.6%  This is due to lower base effect  There is no such phenomenal rise in industrial activity. WPI falls (14/12/2015)  WPI inflation has come down to -1.99 % as compared to - 3.81%  Vegetable inflation increased during the month to 14.08 percent from 2.56 percent in previous month  Non-food articles inflation also rose to 6.33 percent from 5.10 percent in same period.  Manufactured products inflation for November came in at negative 1.42 percent against negative 1.67 percent in preceding month. US Fed Rate Hike (17/12/2015)  US Fed ultimately raised the rate to 0.25%  Now Fed rate is in range of 0.25% to 0.50%  Markets had discounted this effect  Indian markets up 325 points, Dow Jones up by Mutual Funds AUM (21/12/2015)  Mutual Funds AUM has crossed Rs. 13 lakh crore  50 lakhs new investors added this year  The industry is hopeful of trebling its AUM to around Rs 40 trillion over the next three years.  At least four MNC fund houses -- US giant Goldman Sachs, Deutsche Bank Group, Nomura and KBC -encashed their holdings  As per the industry body Amfi, 4-7 lakh retail folios are being added to the industry every month FII flows slows in 2015 (30/12/2015)  Year 2015 had FII flows of only $ 3 billion  In last 3 years that is 2012, 2013 and 2014, FII     have Invested $ 20 billion each year Sensex gave -5 % return in 2015 In 2014, Sensex had give 31 % return Domestic Mutual Funds saw Rs. 90,000 crore coming in equity schemes It is highest flow in equity schemes in last 10 years NIIF Fund (30/12/2015)  National Investment and Infrastructure Fund (NIIF) would create corpus of Rs. 40,000 crores  Rs. 20,000 crore from Budget 2015  Rs. 20,000 crore from private players  International Pension and Soverign Wealth Funds from Russia, Singapore, UAE keen on investing in this fund. FDI highest in 17 months (30/12/2015)  FDI flow has increased by 35 % in last 17     months. Across the world FDI flows have falled by 16 % Make in India was launched on 25 September 2014 Since then FDI has increased by 40 % FDI has come in Manufacturing, food processing, consumer goods, logistics Recovery in some sector (30/12/2015)  Capacity Utilization is only 71.5% in industry  Last year it was 70.2%  Cabinet Committee on Investments has resolved 332 projects worth Rs. 11.5 lakh crore  372 projects still are stalled worth Rs. 18.4 lakh crore (32% in power, 16% steel and 18 % petroleum and natural gas) Core Sector data weak (1/1/2016)  Core Sector Data at -1.3% for November vs       3.2% in October Last year in November the Core sector was 8.5% Core sector has 38 % weightage in IIP index Steel production -8.4% Cement -1.8% Crude oil -3.3% Natural gas -3.9% Fiscal Deficit High (1/1/2016)  Fiscal deficit has touched 87% of budget estimate  The fiscal deficit for 2015-2016 has been kept at Rs. 5.5 lkah core or 3.9% of GDP China PMI falls (4/1/2016)  The Caixin Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) fell to 48.2 in December, from 48.6 in November, contracting for a tenth month and coming in below a Reuters poll forecast for 49.0.  IMF has projected China GDP at 6.3%  Currently China GDP at 6.8% which is lowest since 1990 when it was 7.6% Mutual Fund AUM rises (4/1/2016)  MF industry's asset base surges 21% to Rs 13.4 lakh cr in 2015  The country's 44 fund houses together had an average assets under management (AUM) of Rs 11.06 lakh crore at the end of December 2014, compared to Rs 13.39 lakh crore registered in December 2015  Equity assets crossed the Rs 4 lakh crore mark for the first time in the history of Indian mutual fund industry, signalling the return of domestic investors taking the mutual funds route. FPI in Debt also lower (4/1/2016)          As per the data available with depositories, Foreign Portfolio Investors (FPIs) infused a net amount of Rs 45,856 crore (USD 7.4 billion) in the debt markets in 2015 as compared to a record investment of Rs 1.6 lakh crore (USD 26 billion) in the previous year. In 2013, FPIs had pulled out around Rs 51,000 crore (USD 8 billion). Prior to that, overseas investors had invested about Rs 35,000 crore, Rs 42,000 crore and Rs 46,408 crore in 2012, 2011 and 2010 respectively. Year FII in Debt (Rs. crore) 2015 45,856 2014 1,60,000 2013 - 51000 (net outflow) 2012 35000 2011 42000 2010 46408 China guides lower Yuan (7/1/2016)  The People's Bank of China (PBOC) set the yuan reference rate at 6.5646 against the dollar, down 0.51 percent from Wednesday's fix. That represents the largest change in the fix from the previous day since August 13, according to Reuters data.  China's central bank lets the yuan spot rate rise or fall a maximum of 2 percent against the dollar, relative to the official fixing rate. China suspends share trading (7/1/2016)  China has suspended share trading after CSI 700 index fall by 7 %  On the mainland, the Shanghai Composite was down 7.32 percent at the time of the halt, while the Shenzhen Composite saw losses of 8.34 percent. China depreciates its currency (11/1/2016)  In the span of one week, China depreciated its currency by over 1.5 percent and the world’s aggregate equity market capitalization evaporated by nearly USD 2.5 trillion in just four days.  On January 4, the first day global markets opened, China fixed the opening rates of its currency 0.2 percent lower than its previous level signaling a higher than usual depreciation. The Shanghai stock market swung wildly and closed the day 7 percent lower.  The pattern was to repeat on Thursday when the renminbi was depreciated by an unusually high 0.56 percent. By end of day, on Thursday, most equity markets from the Dow Jones and S&P 500 to the FTSE to the Nikkei to the Indian Nifty had lost nearly 5 percent each. IIP falls (12/1/2016)  IIP data came – 3.2% vs 9.8%  Expected IIP was 2 %  IIP data again shows economy not on good track  The core sector data was also -1.3% vs 3.2% earlier Inflation rises again (12/1/2016)  Inflation raised its ugly head  Inflation at 5.61% vs 5.41% last month  Puts pressure on RBI in rate cuts in 2016  Rainfall was deficient by 15% China to inject money in money markets (21/1/2016)  People Bank of China to inject 315 billion yuan in money markets this week  Last week it had injected 40 billion yuan into money markets  This shows that chinese financial system is weakening IMF cancels rule made in 2010 to fund Greece (21/1/2016)  The International Monetary Fund has abolished a rule created in 2010 that allowed it to participate in an international bailout of Greece despite doubts about the country's debt sustainability. For the IMF, that amounted to 30 billion euros (USD 32.7 billion) in May 2010, then an additional 18 billion euros in a second bailout two years later.  The systemic exemption was used more than 30 times to permit loan payments to Greece but also for Ireland and Portugal, two other eurozone members receiving assistance from the troika, by end-May 2014.  The IMF thus created the "systemic exemption" provision which paved the way for it to join the European Union and the European Central Bank in the so-called "troika" of international lenders throwing a lifeline to Greece. FII net sellers (26/1/2016)  In January 2016, FII have been net sellers to the tune of Rs. 9900 crores  Mutual funds pumped in Rs. 5000 crores  Last year in January 2015 the FII were net buyers to the tune of Rs. 17000 crores  Indian markets are constantly falling down due to higher outflow from the Indian stock marekts Core sector in positive range (1/2/2016)  Dec core sector up 0.9% vs -1.3% in Nov  April to December 2015 was 1.9% as compared to 5.7% last year  Core sector growth not healthy and data very volatile  Economy facing sluggish growth US Economy weak (3/2/2016)        US GDP in 4th Quarter has grown only 0.7% After $ 3.7 trillion in Quantitative easing and $ 6 trillion in public debt Economy not even touching 2.5 % GDP Full year growth in economy is only GDP 2.4% Demand for commercial and industrial loans has plunged in 2016, with declines happening across business sizes. Large- and medium-sized businesses had an 11.1 percent decline, while demand from small businesses fell 12.7 percent. The Institute for Supply Management reported that its index tracking manufacturing registered a 48.2 in January, with a number below 50 representing contraction. World has $ 57 trillion of debt floating. This is the biggest risk to the world economy GDP rises (8/2/2016)  Q 3 GDP growth at 7.3%  Last quarter GDP was at 7.4%  GVA at 7.3% vs 7.1% last year  The gross value added is seen at 7.3 percent, compared to 7.1 percent in the previous year.  The full year GDP forecast has been revised to 7.6 percent from 7.2 percent  Manufacturing sector 9.5% vs 5.5%  Agriculture growth only 1.1% GDP Rises (8/2/2016)  Year  2013  2014  2015  2016 Nominal GDP 13.9 13.3 10.8 8.6 Real GDP 5.6 6.6 7.2 7.6 Amazon puts more money (9/2/2016)  Amazon to invest Rs. 1980 crore in its Indian arm in Feb 2016  In January 2016, Amazon had invested Rs. 1696 crores  Since January 2015 Rs. 6700 crore invested by Amazon in Indian operations Banking Sector update (10/2/2016)  PSU banks still account for 70 % of total banking assets     (Loans given) 14.1% is their stressed asset 26 PSU banks, 25 private banks, 43 foreign banks, 56 regional rural banks, 1589 urban co-op banks, 93550 rural co-op banks Jan Dhan Yojana got 192 million accounts with deposits of Rs. 27000 crore BASEl III Norms require banks to have Rs.2.5 lakh crore to Rs. 4 lakh crore Retail shops are flourishing (10/2/2016)  Online shops like Amazon, Flipcart, Snapdeal have total       loss of Rs. 5052 crores Brick and Motor shops see sales rising in OctoberDecember quarter Companies Sales rise Shoppers stop 17.4% Future Lifestyle 16.9% Central 16.6% Arrow and flying 12.0% Macro Data still weak (15/2/2016)  WPI data has come -0.90 Vs -0.73. Rural demand still weak  CPI inflation has come to 5.69% vs 5.61%. This would dampen RBI way to reduce interest rates  IIP data come at -1.3% vs 0.9 %. Industry demand still not picking up. The capacity utilization is only 71%  Trade Data weak (15/2/2016)  14th Consecutive month Indian exports fell by      13.6% due to poor demand of petroleum and engineering goods Global slow down main reason for poor exports Exports only at $ 21 billion Imports fell by 11 % to $ 28 billion Trade deficit at $ 7 billion Mainly due to rise in gold imports which increased by 85% to $ 2.91 billion FII selling continues (17/2/2016)  FII have sold shares worth Rs. 14000 crores from 1st January 2016 till date  There is huge selling pressure  Global turmoil and weakness in Indian macro economic data are key reasons Budget Expectations (18/2/2016)  Rs. 2 lakh crore lost on direct and indirect tax exemptions  Only 3.5% of total population files income tax return  About 4 crore people file income tax return and 2 crore people pay TDS  Tax to GDP ratio at 10% NPA creating Issues (22/2/2016)        PSU banks likely to reach Rs. 4 lacs crore PSU banks have 1.5 times of bad loans as compared to their total assets. More than market cap of all PSU banks 24 PSU banks are listed Private banks have only 6.6 % of total assets as Bad Loan The problem appears less acute at private sector banks as their gross NPAs are only about one-eighth at about Rs 46,000 crore, which is also well below their total market value. The gross NPA of 16 listed private sector lenders stood at Rs 46,271 crore as on December 30, 2015. This compares with their total market value of over Rs 7 lakh crore. Taken together, the cumulative gross NPAs of all listed banks - public and private - has risen to Rs 4.4 lakh crore, while their total market value stands at Rs 9.6 lakh crore. Economic Survey (26/2/2016)  GDP growth seen at 7 to 7.75%  Current Account deficit at 1 – 1.5%  Govt says pressure on credit off take and corporate balance       sheet to remain Global Economic concerns persist Forex reserves at $ 349 billion Industrial output at 3.1 % for whole year Govt confident of maintaining Fiscal Deficit target of 3.9% 7th Pay commission not to put pressure on prices Inflation seen at 4 – 4.5 % ECB reduces rates (11/3/2016)  ECB has increased bond buying from 60 billion euros to 80 billion euros  Surprising markets, it cut its main refinancing rate to zero from 0.05 percent. The euro fell around 1 percent against the dollar.  Reduced Deposit rate to -0.4 % from -0.3%  It cut the marginal lending rate, used by banks to borrow from the ECB overnight, to 0.25 percent from 0.3 percent. Real Estate Bill passed (11/3/2016)         All projects including current ones needs to be registered with regulator Delay in handing over will attract interest on builders 75 % of the amount collected for project to be kept in Escrow account If project starts without registration, then 10 % penalty of value of project Misleading advertisement may attract jail sentence Project to be completed within 3 years or else interest to be paid by the builders No alternation in plan without 66% buyers approving the alteration Valuation of the property on “Carpet Area” basis and not on “Super Builtup area” – very key measure as it will correct prices IIP data in negative territory (11/3/2016)  India's Index of Industrial Production (IIP) for the month of January has come in at -1.5.  December IIP has been revised to -1.2 percent against 1.3 percent reported earlier.  This is the third consecutive month of decline led by manufacturing which slipped to -2.8 percent vs -2.4 percent month-on-month (MoM).  Further, the April-January IIP data has slipped to 2.7 percent against 3.1 percent (YoY). CPI falls (14/3/2016)  CPI inflation has come down from 5.69% to 5.18%  Food inflation fell from 6.85% to 5.3% which was major relief provider  However Core inflation increased from 4.79% to 4.97%  RBI rate cut chances have increased MUDRA banks disburse loans (15/3/2016)  Loans worth Rs 1.09 lakh crore have been given to small     entrepreneur s under the Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana. Loans worth over Rs 1.09 lakh crore were given to over 2.96 crore beneficiaries. Under Pradhan Mantri MUDRA Yojana, which was launched in April last year, loans between Rs 50,000 and Rs 10 lakh are provided to small entrepreneurs The Micro Units Development and Refinance Agency Ltd (MUDRA) focuses on the 5.75 crore self-employed who deploy funds totaling Rs 11 lakh crore and provide jobs to 12 crore people. The banking sector has been allocated an overall disbursement target of about Rs 1.22 lakh crore during 2015-16 for MUDRA loans. US Fed keeps rate unchanged (16/3/2016)  US FED has kept the rates unchanged  US citied world economy slowdown as key reason for not raising rates  FOMC believes that this year the economy may grow at 2.2% as compared to 2.4 % last year Bank of England keeps rates unchanged (17/3/2016)  Bank of England has kept rates unchanged at 0.5 %  Continues to buy assets worth 375 billion pounds FII buys huge in March (22/3/2016)  FII have bought shares worth Rs. 14000 crore in March 2016  In jan and Feb they were net sellers to the tune of Rs. 14500 crores  On 21st March 2016, FII bought shares worth Rs. 1400 crore in one single day Emerging Markets returns (22/3/2016)  Country YTD % in $         Chg fr 52 wk low Brazil 28.10 37.17 Taiwan 7.37 22.35 Russia 13.15 20.64 South Africa 7.06 17.07 China -14.52 14.42 Malaysia 7.31 14.28 India -3.63 12.41 South Korea 2.78 10.50 GAAR to come from 1st April 2017  General Anti Avoidance Rule (GAAR) to come into force from 1st April 2017  It has clause of “Commercial substance” to decide the tax liability  FII are apprehensive that this clause may lead to litigations and thus affecting the FII flows ADB slashes India GDP (30/3/2016)  The Asian Development Bank's (ADB) growth forecast of 7.4 percent for 201617 is substantially lower than its earlier projection of 7.8 percent.  US Fed Reserve Chairperson Janet Yellen has indicated that interest rate hike will be very gradual  Tata Steel decides to exit Corus (31/3/2016)  Tata Steel has invested Rs. 19000 crore in UK operations in Corus  15000 employees job in UK at risk  Tata Steel posted loss Rs. 2127 crore in december 2015 quarter  In 2007 Tata steel had spent $ 12.1 billion to buy Corus  Out of 14 mtpa, 7 million tonnes per annum capacity out for sale by tata Two mega steel Acquisition fail (31/3/2016)  In 2006-2007, Two Indian steel firms one Mittal Steel Acquired Arcelor and then Tata Steel Acquired Corus.  In 2007 price of steel were $550 to $ 575 per tonne and in 2016 it came down to $ 380 per tonne RBI cuts Repo Rate (5/4/2016)  RBI cuts Repo rate by 25 basis points  Repo rate at 6.50 %  Reverse repo rate at 6.0 %  CRR unchanged at 4 %  SLR reduced from 21.5 % to 21.25 %  Repo rate is the rate at which the central bank lends to banks. CRR and SLR are percentage of liabilities that banks have to hold in cash and liquid assets, respectively.  Daily CRR balance reduced from 95 % to 90% for banks. This will push liquidity into system CPI eases and IIP rises (12/4/2016)  Retail Inflation has eased to 4.83% from 5.18% which was earlier at 5.69%  Food inflation at 5.21% which was earlier 5.52% and before than 6.66%  El Nino impact fading  Positive that rainfall would be more  Urban inflation at 3.95% vs 4.42% IIP becomes positive (12/4/2016)  Feb IIP at 2 % vs -1.5% last month  Positive trend shows that manufacturing may be picking up  Capital goods output at -9.8% vs 20%  Consumer durable 9.7% vs 5.8% Core sector grows (2/5/2016)  In March driving core sector growth by 6.4 percent -- a well-timed surprise that sits well with the positive earnings season we have had so far.  In February, the rise was 5.7 percent.  The core sector growth was at its highest level since November 2014. BSE IPO Details (2/5/2016)  Stakeholders % holding  Deutsche Borse 4.75  Singapore exchange 4.75  SBI 4.75  LIC 4.68  GKFF Ventures 4.58  Coporate Trading members 21.06  Individual trading members 7.2 BSE IPO Details (2/5/2016)  BSE IPO to come by December 2016  BSE shares between Rs. 400 to Rs. 600  BSE valued at Rs. 6500 crores SIP rising (3/5/2016)  SIP registrations are up 26 % though Nifty is down by 9%  29.8 lakh SIP got registered in FY 16  23.7 lakh SIP were registered in FY 15  Average size of SIP in FY15 was Rs. 3368  Average size of SIP in FY16 is Rs. 3449  Total Active SIP is 57.95 lakhs arise of 32 % in year ended march 2016 FII vs DII vs Mutual Funds (3/5/2016) (Rs crore)  Month  Jan  Feb  March  April MF 6703 5602 -10194 -273 DII 12875 10492 -15740 -2356 FII -11371 -7987 22849 8416 IMF worries for world growth (3/5/2016)  The European Commission now sees euro zone GDP in 2016 at 1.6 percent from a previous forecast of 1.7 percent growth. It also lowered its 2017 forecast to 1.8 percent from 1.9 percent.  International Monetary Fund has retained its growth forecast for India this year at 7.5 percent, largely driven by private consumption even as weak exports and sluggish credit growth weigh on the economy. India to charge capital gains from Mauritius (11/5/2016)  Mauritius Double Tax Avoidance Agreement, which comes into effect April 1, 2017, will give India the right to tax capital gains from investments coming from the tax haven.  Tax lawyers said that while the move may have a shortterm negative impact on market sentiment, given the fact that about USD 33 billion of inflows come into India via the controversial participatory-notes route, more sharing of information would be a long-term positive. India to charge capital gains from Mauritius (11/5/2016)  Up10 March 31, 2017 everything is exempted, beyond that they will pay only 17 percent on derivatives and 7.5 percent on short-term capital gains and no long-term capital gains. They have set out a clear picture up to March 31, 2019.  Today I pay 34 percent tax on my derivatives trades, for FIIs it is tax free. Post 2017, they will pay 7.5%. I am playing after paying 34% and I don't withdraw (from the market), and they (FIIs) will withdraw if they have to pay 7.5% tax. What kind of argument is this. IIP and CPI shocks (12/5/2016)  IIP data came as rude shock with 0.1% as compared to 2 % in March  CPI inflaiton also came unexpected with 5.39% as compared to 4.83% last month  Both indicators have created questions about the pace of grwoth and stability of macro data IIP and CPI shocks (12/5/2016)  Food inflation at 6.32% Vs 5.21% (MoM)  Rural inflation at 6.09% Vs 5.7% (MoM)  Urban inflation at 4.68% Vs 3.95% (MoM) March IIP highlights: Mining sector output at -0.1% Vs 5% (MoM) Manufacturing sector output at -1.2% Vs 0.7% (MoM) Electricity sector output at 11.3% Vs 9.6% (MoM) Basic goods output at 4% Vs 5.4% (MoM) Capital goods output at -15.4% Vs -9.8% (MoM) Intermediate goods output at 3.7% Vs 5.7% (MoM) Consumer goods output at 0.4% Vs 0.8% (MoM) Consumer durables output at 8.7% Vs 9.7% (MoM) Consumer non-durables output at -4.4% Vs -4.2% (MoM) China slows down (16/5/2016)  China industrial output grew at 6 % as compared to 6.8% last month  Separately, retail sales -- an indicator of domestic consumption -- rose 10.1 percent on the year in April, the bureau said, weaker than the 10.5 percent gain in March  China was likely to have an "L-shaped" growth pattern, suggesting it will remain flat WPI becomes positive (16/5/2016)  WPI has come 0.34 % as compared to -0.85% last month.  This has become positive after almost 17 months  Last year WPI was -2.43%  Signs that rural economy may pick up  Monsoon to be key factor GST to plug tax evasion (31/5/2016)  GST to plug tax evasion  Last year Rs. 71000 crore direct and indirect tax evasion has taken place  GST is consumption based destination tax which will reduce tax evasion  GST would also make Indian economy from $1.9 trillion to $4 trillion economy India lower middle income country says world bank (31/5/2016)  Parameters India world  Time to start business days 29 20  Stock Mkt cap to GDP 76 94  Tax revenue collect by got 11 14  Access to better sanitation 40 68  Labour participation 54 63 GDP rises (31/5/2016)  GDP growth came at 7.6% as against expected of 7.3% for the year ended march 2016  Jan-March quarter saw GDP at 7.9%  Gross Value Added came to 7.2%  India again officially becomes fastest growing economy, ahead of China Core Sector output rises (31/5/2016)  Core sector data grew at 8.5% in may vs 6.4% in March  Core sector has 38 % weight age in IIP index  Economy coming on track but manufacturing growth still to make mark RBI keeps rate unchanged (7/6/2016)  Repo rate kept unchanged at 6.5 %  Reverse repo at 6 %  CRR at 4 %  SLR at 21.25 %  Since the rate-cutting cycle began in January 2015, the key policy repo rate has been cut by 150 basis points to 6.50 percent.  On the lending side, only about 75 percent basis point cut has been passed on to customers by the banks.  Retail inflation, largely driven by food prices, inched up to 5.4 percent in April from 4.8 percent in the previous month, making it difficult for the RBI to cut rates any further. Repo rates in last one year (moneycontrol 7/6/2016)  Year  Feb 15  Mar 15  Arp 15  June 15  Aug 15  Sep 15  Dec 15  Feb 16  Apr 16  June 16 Repo Rate 7.75 7.50 7.50 7.25 7.25 6.75 6.75 6.75 6.50 6.50 World Bank lower growth projections (8/6/2016)  World Bank has lowered the world economic growth to 2.4%  This is way below the projection of 2.9% it did in January 2016 Technology, Globalization causing anxiety (10/6/2016)  RBI Governor says technology, globalization causing anxiety to middle class people.  In may growth in USA was slowest and 10,000 manufacturing jobs disappeared  Future of jobs --- no one knows  Indian economy especially which has huge labour supply has to have more manufacturing jobs rather than technology oriented jobs CPI RISES (13/6/2016)  CPI has increased from 5.39% to 5.76%  Food inflation has increased from 6 % to. 7.5 %  CPI rising is bad news since it will stop RBI to reduce interest rates  Pressure on Monsoon would further create pressure on agriculture RBI Stress Tests (29/6/2016)  Gross Bad Loans at High of 7.6% of total loans  Large Borrowers share of bad loans at 86.4%  Large borrowers share in total loans is 58%  Banks have exposure to mutual funds and insurance of Rs. 17,600 crores RBI Stress Tests (29/6/2016)  Sectors % of bad loans  Infra 32.8  Metals 13.6  Textiles 6.9  Engineering 5.3  Food Processing 5.3 India Inc Balance Sheet Improving (29/6/2016)  Leverage companies with negative networth or debt equity ratio of more than 2 have fallen from 19% to 14 %.  The debt of above companies have fallen 20.6% of total corporate debt as compared to 33.8% last year  Companies with debt equity ratio of more than 3 have fallen from 14.2% to 12.9%  RBI sample consist of 1800 to 2600 listed companies. The net profit has increased by only 2.1% and sales by 2.2% DLF to reduce debt (29/6/2016)  DLF has consolidated debt of Rs. 22,202 crores  DCCDL accounts for Rs. 12,325 crores of debt  KP Singh and Family to infuse Rs. 10,000 crore into company  This will help company reduce debt and make balance sheet strong Past Global events and indian stock market returns (29/6/2016)  Event       1 Day later 1 year later Asian Crisis -3.6 11.2 Pokhran II -4.1 8.6 WTC -3.7 42.0 PIIGS -2.7 20.3 US QE 3 -2.7 45.9 Indian stock markets have always rebounded after global knee jerk reaction to stock markets 7th pay commission (30/6/2016)  47 lakh central govt employees to benefit  53 lakh pensioners to benefit  Total outgo for govt nearly Rs. 1 lakh crore  Salary rise between 14 to 25 %  Lowest salary to rise from Rs. 7000 to Rs. 18000  Cabinet secretary to get Rs. 2.5 lakh from current Rs.     90,000 Benefits and challenges Consumption of capital goods, automobiles to rise Fiscal deficit may rise Inflation may go up May core sector growth slows to 2.8% vs 8.5% in April  The eight 'core' sectors of the Indian economy grew 2.8 percent year-on-year in May, government data released today showed, having slowed from 8.5 percent in April.  The eight sectors make up about 38 percent of the index of industrial production (IIP) benchmark. IIP surprises and CPI flat  The Index of Industrial Production for May surprised on the upside coming in at 1.2 percent against a decline of -0.8 percent in April.  This figure is the best figure since February 2016. Out of the last six months, four months have seen a contraction.  Consumer non-durables have been declining for the seventh consecutive month. The contraction has declined to 2.2 percent for the month in question.  The Consumer Price Index for June was flat at 5.77 percent against 5.76 percent in May. Food inflation quickened to 7.79 percent last month. FII wary of India’s High PE (14/7/2016)  Past data shows that FII buying picks up when PE of sensex is less than 15.5  Current PE of Sensex is 16.5 and thus FII average buying for last 21 days is $18.5 million as compared to $197 million in April 2016  Before 2014 general elections, when PE was between 12 an 14.5 the buying of FII were more aggressive UK may head for recession (14/7/2016)  49% of 350 FTSE companies had not plan for back up in     case of BREXIT which is now a reality EU may discriminate UK exports if UK goes with restrictive policy on free movement of labour FDI into UK can dry fast which would reduce the GDP by 1% Inventory is pilled up in UK companies and with slow down in corner the situation would get bad Saving rate in UK is low at 5.9% which could also create more trouble in case of slowdown IMF Reduces world growth (20/7/2016)  IMF reduces Global Growth forecast from 3.8% to 3.1%  In January 2016, IMF had projected 3.8%  In July 2016 it has reduced to 3.1%  The lower projection is due to BREXIT and its effect  The world bank has also reduced its global growth from 2.9% to 2.4% Govt Infuses Rs. 22,900 crore (20/7/2016)  Govt infuses Rs. 22,900 crore in 13 PSU banks  SBI gets one third that is Rs. 7575 crore  Indian Overseas bank gets Rs. 3101 crore  The credit offtake in economy is only 8 % as compared to 8.5% last year IMF trims Indian GDP growth (20/7/2016)          2015 2016 2017 World 3.1 3.1 3.4 USA 2.4 2.2 2.5 EURO 1.7 1.6 1.4 UK 2.2 1.7 1.3 JAPAN 0.5 0.3 0.1 INDIA 7.6 7.4 7.4 CHINA 6.9 6.6 6.2 IMF recommends to avoid protectionist policies, structural reforms should be done and countries to spend more where there is room for fiscal deficit FII putting money in India (27/7/2016)  From June 20 to July 25, FII have invested Rs. 7800 crore in Indian stock market  FII have invested Rs. 1900 crore in the debt market during same period  Since January 1, 2016 Midcaps have given 12 % returns while SENSEX has given 8 % return so far. GST Roll out finally (3/8/2016)  GST rate to be 18%  50 % state should pass in order to be applicable pan India  GDP may rise by 2 %  Lower logistic cost by 30 % saving as per some estimates Bank of England reduces rates (5/8/2016)  Bank of England reduced their rate from 0.50% to 0.25%  Announces QE of 60 billion pounds  Cheap money to come from FII to indian markets. IIP rises and inflation rises (16/8/2016)  IIP has increased from 1.2 % to 2.1%.  Surprisingly it has increased  CPI inflation has increased from 5.77% to 6.07%  Inflation above 6 % means that RBI would not be able to reduce interest rates any time soon  The food inflation is already at 7.79% WPI Rises to 2 year high (16/8/2016)  WPI inflation rises to near two-year high of 3.55% from 1.62%  WPI inflation climbs to a two-year high at 3.55 percent as against 1.62 percent month-on-month.  Food Inflation too increased to 11.82 percent from 8.18 percent last month.  The vegetable inflation accelerated to 28 percent from 16.9 percent in June while the pulses inflation has gone upto 35.76 percent from 26.61 percent. Consumers using cards (18/8/2016)  Year Debit Card Credit card Swipe  2015 57.50 cr 2.15 cr 11,32,955  2016 68.81 cr 2.55 cr 14,29,420  50 % of consumers buy through loans and cards and prefer non-cash deals  Non cash transactions likely to grow by 45 % by 2020 Internet usage by 2020 (18/8/2016)  No of internet users currently 330 million will go up to 730 million  75% to 80% of the users would be from villages  175 million no of online shoppers by 2020  Rural India key to success for sustainable economic development GDP Data disappoints (1/9/2016)  GDP came at 7.1% as compared to 7.9% in last year and 7.5% last quarter  Agriculture was main dragger with growth of only 1.8% from 2.3% quarter on quarter  Mining sector saw a contraction with growth plunging to 0.4 percent from 8.6 percent in the last quarter (QoQ). Services sector, however, saw a strong growth at 9.6 percent compared to 8.7 percent QoQ.  Gross value added (GVA) was down to 7.3 percent from 7.4 percent year-on-year and 7.2 percent in fourth quarter FY16. Core sector growth slows (1/9/2016)  Core sector growth which has 8 industries which have weight age of 38% in IIP index  The core sector growth has come down to 3.2% as compared to 5.2% in June  However, the growth rate of the eight infrastructure sectors -- coal, crude oil, natural gas, refinery products, fertilizers, steel, cement and electricity -- was slower than the 5.2 percent recorded in June. MF AUM RISES (9/9/2016)  Mutual Fund Industry AUM has touced Rs. 15.6 lakh crore  Highest in the hisotry of MF  Equity Mutual funds AUM has reached Rs.4.67 lakh crore against highest  Balance funds category AUM has touhced Rs. 50,000 crore FII puts money (9/9/2016)  FII have invested Rs. 43000 crore in Indian stock markets in this year  FII were net sellers in Jan and Feb 2016 after the Fed Rate Hike in Dec 2015  In march and April 2016 they did huge buying to the tune of Rs. 26000 crore SIP Gaining Momentum (12/9/2016)  Equity mutual funds witnessed an inflow of Rs 6,505 crore in August, making it the highest in a year, mainly on account of optimistic investor sentiment.  Also, monthly SIP (systematic investment plans) book has crossed 1 crore SIPs  Monthly net contributions through SIP alone is over Rs 3,000 crore leading to higher positive net inflows in equity markets CPI FALLS AND IIP CONTRACTS (12/9/2016)  August CPI falls to 5.05%; July IIP contracts by 2.4% August consumer price index (CPI) fell sharply to 5.05 percent year-on-year from 6.07 percent in July, thanks a sharp fall in food prices, which enjoy about 50 percent weight in the inflation basket, government data released today showed.  Separately, data showed that July index of industrial production (IIP) came in at -2.4 percent, compared to 1.95 percent (revised) in June, and an expectation of 1.37 percent. WPI rises (14/9/2016)  Wholesale Price Index inflation increased to 3.74 percent in the month of August compared with 3.55 percent in preceding month.  WPI rising indicates that rural economy is picking up demand  CPI falling and IIP negatives makes a case for RBI to reduce interest rates Fed rates unchanged (22/9/2016)  Fed has not changed its interest rates  Inflation in USA is less than its 2 % target  Labour market has created job but risk of slowing down still exists  Last December 2015 Fed had increased its rate from 0.25 % to 0.50%  In 2017, there are chances of 2 rate hike FII put in Rs. 9300 crore in September 2016 (26/9/2016)  Foreign investors have pumped Rs 9,500 crore (USD 1.4 billion) into the country's capital markets so far this month, driven by sound progress on rollout of GST and contraction in current account deficit (CAD).  The latest infusion comes on top of a whopping inflow of Rs 25,904 crore in the preceding two months (JulyAugust). Prior to that, foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) had pulled out a total of Rs 4,373 crore from the capital markets (equity and debt) in June and July.  So far this year, FPIs have invested Rs 46,493 crore in equities while withdrawing Rs 3,442 crore from the debt market. This resulted in a net flow of Rs 43,051 crore. FII put in Rs. 9300 crore in September 2016 (26/9/2016)  Currently, investments made by Sebi- registered FPIs in domestic capital market stands at Rs11.5 lakh crore.  This include Rs 8.45 lakh crore in equities and Rs 3.06 lakh crore in debt. SEBI allows FPI for direct membership of stock exchange in bond markets (26/9/2016)  Under the new proposal approved by Sebi’s board here today, the Securities and Exchange Board of India (Sebi) would take up the matter with the government to permit FPIs to become members of the stock exchanges for their proprietary trading.  In a statement, Sebi said it has decided to allow Category I and Category II FPIs to have an option to directly access the corporate bond market without brokers, as has been allowed to domestic institutions such as banks, insurance companies and pension funds. Emerging Economies getting funds flows (26/9/2016)  About 545 million people are middle class in Asia, according to recent data from Ernst & Young, which estimates 3 billion people will move into the middle class by 2030 — most of them in emerging markets.  With investors recently funneling more than USD 9 billion into emerging market funds — a three-year high — and the benchmark MSCI emerging market fund up nearly 15 percent year to date, OPEC to cut output by 750,000 barrels per day (29/9/2016)  OPEC to cut output by 750,000 barrels per day  Crude prices went up by 6 %  OPEC members, whose countries produce 40 percent of the world's crude oil, agreed to cut their output to 32.5 million barrels per day.  informal OPEC meeting opened in Algiers earlier today to discuss a possible freeze in output by the cartel, with the aim of raising prices which have fallen by more than half since mid2014.  More than 70 countries are facing problems due to lower curde prices RBI cuts Repo Rate (4/10/2016)  RBI reduces Repo rate from 6.5 % to 6.25%  Reverse Repo rate is now 5.75%  The decision of the monetary policy committee (MPC), headed by new RBI governor Urjit Patel, will likely cheer business leaders and households as cheaper loans will aid investment and spending.  The six member panel, which brainstormed over two days, unanimously agreed that inflation was unlikely to gallop past the tolerance threshold of 6 percent in the near future.  The MPC expects retail inflation rates to hover around 5 percent by March 2017, the RBI said in a statement, which is well within the comfort zone. IMF raises Indian growth rate (4/10/2016)  IMF has raised Indian GDP growth from 7.4% to 7.6%  World GDP kept constant at 3.1%  Emerging economies growth at 4.2% while Developed     economies at 1.6% India needs to improve labour market More jobs to be created India needs to create 1.5 crore jobs for next 20 years World economy passing through tough phase World Bank says automation creates job risk (5/10/2016)  World bank says automation threatens 69% jobs in India  77% jobs in China  85% jobs in Ethiopia  India and china being labour intensive needs to have policies which creates jobs and not destroy jobs  Automation is good but not at cost of human resources Global debt at record high, warns IMF (6/10/2016)  Global Debt is at record high at $ 152 trillion  Two Thirds are owned by private sector  Measured against the size of the world economy, it rose from less than 200 percent of global GDP to 225 percent over the 15 years to 2015.  High debt levels are costly as they often end up in financial recessions that are deeper and longer than normal recessions. MF Business again in trouble (19/10/2016)  In India Mutual Funds constitute 7 % of individual      investment in financial products In China this is 11 % and Japan it is 30 % of house hold investment There are right now 10,000 active distributors and only 486 Registered Investment Advisors SEBI wants to separate distribution from Advisory This may further harm in the industry, since in India people do not pay for any advice MF industry has 350 equity schemes and 1500 debt schemes GST in Four rates (4/11/2016)  GST to be rolled out in 4 rates  These rates would be 5 %, 12 %, 18% and 28 %  For gold it would be 4 % but likely to be further reduced  50 % of the items that are under Consumer Price Index are exempt from GST  Remaining 50 % of goods would come under the lowest rates  Objective is that GST will not create inflation Banks allowed to issue Masala bonds (4/11/2016)  RBI has allowed banks to issue Masala bonds  Masala bonds are rupee denominated bonds issued     outside India Banks can issue perpetual bonds which would classify as Tier I capital Also banks can issue time bonds which would be as Tier II capital Banks can also raise long term funds for infrastructure and affordable housing This is within overall limit of Rs. 2,44,000 lakh crore for corporate bonds fund raising ICICI Bank NPA Rises (8/11/2016)  ICICI Bank NPA has increased from Rs. 15000 crore to Rs. 32000 crore  Highest rise in NPA in last few years  NIM (Net Interest Margin) has remained flat at Rs. 5200 crore WPI falls (15/11/2016)  India’s wholesale inflation rose to 3.39 percent in October year-on-year, marginally lower than the previous month’s 3.57 percent.  Food inflation moderated to four month low of 4.34 percent aided by fresh arrival of seasonal vegetable supplies.  The inflation should go down in the short term. CPI falls (15/11/2016)  CPI inflation has come down to 4.2% as compared to earlier of 4.39%  Inflaiton is down 14 months low  Low vegetable and food prices have reduced inflation  This give RBI next room to cut rates Demonetization effect          The Indian Economy will slow down drastically in terms of GDP (Nomura already telling GDP to come down from 7.5 % to 6.3%) FII selling shares in big way the markets have started crashing (more than 1000 points down in last 3 trading sessions) Real estate sector worst hit and it has 11 % weightage in GDP so GDP will surely come down and make Indian economy unattractive Banks may get Rs. 8 to 10 lakh crore which means huge liquidity with banks RBI to reduce around 50 to 75 basis point interest rate cut They would reduce the interest rates and thus house and auto loans to become more cheaper Demand would pick up for real estate projects which accept 100 % white payment may benefit the most Currently the construction, mining, steel and other sectors where workers are paid in cash would suffer the most Farmers may get affected since they don’t have cash to buy seeds and farming material Italy Referendum (8/12/2016)  Italy unemployment rate at 38%  Banks bad loans 360 billion euros  Wants to exit Eurozone like UK  Eurozone may disintegrate in next 2 years  Italy Debt to GDP ratio at 160% US Economy (8/12/2016)  US Economy unemployment at 4.6%  US creating more than 1.5 lakh jobs each month for last 2 years  US to tax 35 % to companies shifting jobs outside USA  On 14 and 15 December, US Fed may increase interest rates  Emerging Economies stock market may crash. In October already Rs. 23000 crore FII has sold Monetary Instruments (8/12/2016)  Bank Rate 6.75%%  Repo Rate 6.25%%  Reverse Repo Rate 5.75%%  CRR 4.00%  SLR 20.75%%  These rates are old rates RBI keeps rate unchanged (8/12/2016)  RBI has kept Repo Rate unchanged  Stock markets fell as rate cut was expected  Indian Economy GDP cut from 7.6% to 7.1%  So far, people have deposited Rs 11.55 lakh crore worth of “demonetized” notes.  The central bank said that the RBI has so far replaced Rs 4 lakh crore of new notes since November 8 when the unexpected currency culling exercise was announced. ECB to buy bonds (9/12/2016)  European Central Bank to buy 60 billion euro bonds  This would continue till end of 2017  The ECB has already spent more than 1.4 trillion euros     ($1.5 trillion) buying bonds and has been at pains to emphasize that maintaining easy financing conditions is 'crucial', with underlying inflation stuck below 1 percent. The outlook for Euro zone has been weak The GDP growth forecast is even around 1.6% which is not much encouraging Italy already facing problems of 38% unemployment Banks in Italy has bad debt of 360 billion Euros CPI inflation falls (13/12/2016)  CPI inflation has fallen to 3.63% from 4.20%  Drastic fall in CPI inflation  Need to wait and watch since this fall could be result of demonetization  Economy has slowed down drastically  No cash movement  80% of the economy runs of cash WPI falls (14/12/2016)  WPI inflation comes to 3.15 % as compared to 3.39% in October 2016  WPI also eases as CPI has also come down  RBI gets more elbow room to reduce the interest rates US Fed raises Rate (15/12/2016)  US Fed has raised rates by 25 basis point  Now interest rates in USA are in range of 50 to75 basis points  In December 2015 Fed had raised rates by 25 basis points which they did after 8 years of global recession FPI net sellers (19/12/2016)  FII are net sellers of Rs. 49700 crore in last two months from equity markets  FII invested Rs. 46000 crore from June to Sep 2016  Net withdrawal by foreign portfolio investors (FPIs) from equities stood at Rs 1,142 crore this month, while the same from the debt market was Rs 18,452 crore, translating into a total outflow of Rs 19,594 crore, depositories' data showed.  This year, so far, FPIs have invested a net sum of Rs 27,600 crore in stocks, while they pulled out Rs 43,162 crore from the debt market, resulting in a combined net inflow of Rs 15,561 crore.

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