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Download SESSION C: Lessons from coping with current climate for future
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SESSION C: Lessons from coping with current climate for future adaptation: How useful is it to rely on adaptation to current climate as a means for assessing capacity to adapt to future climate change? Conceptualizing the Problem 30 climate change 25 Capacity 20 15 10 5 0 2004 2014 2024 2034 2044 Time, years 2054 2064 ‘The Devil’s Advocate’ (Bill) • Why should we consider that the lessons learned from historical/current adaptation measures is a good indicator for adaptation to future changes? • Why should we believe that incremental changes in capacity (I.e. human, physical) will help us to prepare for long term climate change? Initial Issues • Where we currently are in terms of being adapted is important! – We can’t incrementally adapt if we are not already adapted • Climate change is not going to be a static, linear future process – Incremental changes may not work – Depends from sector to sector: incremental change may not be as valid for sea level rise concerns as agricultural sector concerns (precautionary principal may apply) • Temporal dynamic: incremental change— – Band-Aids no longer work on a wounded elbow if the arm suddenly falls off That said… • Historical adaptation has not always been incremental – I.e. migration from drought – Policy change in California agriculture • In some cases incremental adaptation has successfully occurred – Egyptian agricultural practices (change in crops, technologies, etc) Fundamental Issue: Sustainability • Sustainability of past adaptation measures– how robust are they to current climate? • Can they withstand future climate change? – (In many cases a policy change can occur if current practice is not adequate/sustainable) • Adaptation means policy, too – Perverse incentives can effect adaptation So what can we learn? • Key: Looking at past adaptation measures forces you to consider human, social, and cultural aspects of adaptation – What are your REAL obstacles??? • A possible shortcoming of much of the current adaptation work is it is often approached from purely technical point of view – Brings to mind development paradigms of the ’50s • Lessons can be learned from both failures and successes How do we know if adaptation measures are successful? • How to define the adaptation baseline? • The case of climate variability/extreme events, consider ‘damages’ – Health, mortality – Economic • Reduction in mortality • Increases in economic losses That’s It
