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Government of Canada Gouvernement du Canada Species at Risk Act Implementation Guidance 1 -DRAFTGuidelines on Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives August 2007 © Andrew Trites – Steller Sea Lions - As drafted by Environment Canada - Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 2 Table of Contents 1.0 Introduction ........................................................................................................... 3 1.1 The SARA Context .............................................................................................. 3 2.0 What is Recovery? ............................................................................................... 4 3.0 Guiding Principles................................................................................................. 5 4.0 Recovery Goals and Objectives ........................................................................... 6 4.1 What Are Recovery Goals? ................................................................................. 6 4.2 What Are Population and Distribution Objectives ? ............................................. 6 4.3 What are Recovery Objectives? .......................................................................... 8 4.4 Recovery Objectives and P&D Objectives should be SMART ............................ 8 4.5 General Rules in Setting Recovery Goals and Population and Distribution Objectives .................................................................................................................... 9 4.6 Steps to Setting and Implementing Recovery Goals and Objectives ................ 10 4.6.1. Recovery Strategy ...................................................................................... 10 4.6.2. Action Plan ................................................................................................. 14 4.6.3. Implementation and Reporting.................................................................... 15 References .................................................................................................................... 17 Appendix 1. Related Concepts ...................................................................................... 18 Appendix 2. Model types and associated data requirements for estimating population objectives or viability. ................................................................................................ 19 Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 3 1.0 Introduction These guidelines are to assist in establishing recovery goals and objectives for individual species1 listed under the federal Species at Risk Act (SARA). The purpose is to promote the preparation of goals and objectives that (1) are ecologically appropriate, (2) are achievable and defensible, and (3) maximize the conservation of biodiversity in the context of a species at risk recovery strategy or action plan. The guidelines are not meant to be prescriptive, but rather present a general set of best practices to be used to guide the process of setting goals and objectives for the recovery of species at risk. The special case of population and distribution objectives is discussed in some detail. See “Guidelines for Completing Recovery Strategy Templates” for information on what to include in the recovery strategy or management plan. Within the context of a recovery strategy, establishing goals and objectives is about setting out the strategic course for recovery planning for a species in terms of (1) establishing the state we want to achieve for the species in the form of recovery goal(s); (2) quantifying the goal(s) to the extent this is meaningful, by determining the number and size of populations and/or the biogeographic distribution (dispersion across the landscape) of the species required to achieve the goal(s); and, (3) specifying what else needs to be accomplished to achieve the goal(s). In addition to discussing goals and objectives themselves, this guidance also addresses the logic-flow from goals and objectives to broad strategies, performance measures (within the recovery strategy) and recovery actions and monitoring (within the action plan) ultimately feeding back to updated and improved goals and objectives. 1.1 The SARA Context If recovery is determined to be feasible2, recovery strategies under SARA require a statement of the population and distribution objectives that will assist the survival and recovery of the species3. Population and distribution objectives should be established within the context of the overall recovery goal(s) for the species. If recovery is determined not to be feasible, population and distribution objectives may still be recommended particularly if critical habitat is identified4—which, as set out in 1 Throughout this document, ‘species’ refers to the entity assessed by COSEWIC. 2 SARA s40. The competent minister must determine whether the recovery of the species is technically and biologically feasible. Note there is a separate Policy on the Feasibility of Recovery in place that provides further interpretation of this section of SARA. 3 SARA s41(1)(d). If recovery is feasible, recovery strategies must contain a statement of the population and distribution objectives that will assist the survival and recovery of the species. 4 As required to the extent possible by SARA s41(2). Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 4 established guidelines, should be based on population objectives (see Environment Canada 2005a). SARA also requires the Minister to report on the implementation of recovery strategies and action plans and progress towards meeting objectives5 and permits recovery strategies and action plans to be amended as needed6. SARA prescribes a two-part recovery planning process comprised of recovery strategies and action plans. The recovery strategy establishes the framework for development of the action plan and recovery implementation, and is based on biological considerations. Goals and objectives in the recovery strategy should articulate what is biologically required to recover the species. Action plans outline what needs to be done to achieve the recovery goals and objectives identified in the recovery strategy, but also need to include an evaluation of the socio-economic costs and benefits that arise from proposed recovery actions7. 2.0 What is Recovery? Recovery is defined within the Policy on the Feasibility of Recovery (Environment Canada 2005b) as the process by which the decline of an endangered, threatened or extirpated species is arrested or reversed, and threats removed or reduced to improve the likelihood of the species persistence in the wild, and a species can be considered recovered when its long term persistence in the wild has been secured. A recovery goal could range from survival to full recovery, as recommended by the recovery planners. In this regard, the Policy on the Feasibility of Recovery, as a complement to the definition of recovery, states: The appropriate target level for persistence whereby a species would be considered recovered differs among species and depends on the current and historical context, including factors such as population abundance, the number of populations, and threats. Persistence may range from: SARA s46. ‘The competent minister must report on the implementation of the recovery strategy, and the progress towards meeting its objectives, within five years after it is included in the public registry and in every subsequent five-year period, until its objectives have been achieved or the species’ recovery is no longer feasible.’ 5 SARA s55. ‘The competent minister must monitor the implementation of an action plan and the progress towards meeting its objectives and assess and report on its implementation and its ecological and socioeconomic impacts five years after the plan comes into effect.’ 6 SARA s45(1). ‘The competent minister may at any time amend the recovery strategy.’ SARA s52(1). ‘The competent minister may at any time amend an action plan.’ SARA s49(1)(e). Actions plans must include ‘an evaluation of the socio-economic costs of the action plan and the benefits to be derived from its implementation’. 7 Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 5 Precarious and limited occurrence – for example, species that have historically been rare or for which damages caused by threats are irreversible; to Highly viable and self-sustaining – for example, species for which formal down listing to Special Concern or Not at Risk would be warranted. (Environment Canada 2005b) Thus recovery can be viewed as a species-specific concept, and can be defined somewhere on the continuum from maintenance (or survival) of the species to full recovery (which may or may not result in delisting) of the species. One function of the goal in a recovery strategy is to clearly specify how recovery is to be interpreted for the species. This gives high importance to the goal since any decisions by responsible jurisdictions on how the species will persist in nature should be based on thoughtful advice from recovery planners. 3.0 Guiding Principles Whenever possible, recovery planners should follow four guiding principles to inform the process and outcome of setting both recovery goals and population and distribution (P&D) objectives: 1. Be precautionary – Preventative measures should be taken to avoid harm or secure good in order to safeguard against irreversible damage to a species including extinctions or local extirpations. The establishment of goals and objectives should not be delayed because of a lack of full information or certainty about the species. 2. Base goals and objectives on the best available information – Where possible, recovery goals and population and distribution objectives should be based on quantitative analyses of species viability; other objectives should be based to the extent possible on rigorous analysis of threats and limiting factors to species or their habitats. However, there will be cases where qualitative estimates, expert opinion, and/or traditional ecological knowledge represent the best available information. Ensure that information is available in an accessible and meaningful form to all concerned. 3. Document uncertainty - Species occurrences and habitats are variable and our knowledge about them is often incomplete, therefore conclusions about them (e.g., the number and distribution of individuals required for population viability) are bound to be accompanied by uncertainty. Be upfront about the perceived level of uncertainty, and ensure that this is reflected in the precision (or lack thereof) in goals and objectives. 4. Document the process - Key decisions and justifications relating to the process of establishing recovery goals and objectives should be documented in writing (e.g., Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 6 meeting minutes, date-stamped maps). The experience of the US Fish and Wildlife Service under the Endangered Species Act suggests that properly managed electronic “administrative records” can serve as valuable evidence, especially when trying to resolve disputes and/or prepare for challenges to any decisions reached. 4.0 Recovery Goals and Objectives 4.1 What Are Recovery Goals? A recovery goal sets the strategic course for recovery planning by defining what ‘recovery’ means for each species. This helps establish a framework for adaptive management of the recovery process by identifying ‘success’ upfront. Setting goals facilitates consensus-building amongst stakeholders, provides clear direction for actions, and increases the probability of successfully recovering the species (Bickerton and Hartley 2004). The goal should emphasize long-term persistence and provide an indication of where, on the survival (maintenance) to full recovery continuum, recovery for the species could be achieved. In some cases it is helpful to set both a long-term and short-term goal or to specify that there is only sufficient understanding of the species to set a short-term goal. What constitutes ‘short’ and ‘long’ term depends on the life history of the species – for example, targeting 10-20 years for the short term and 100 years for the long term may be appropriate for large mammals, whereas much shorter time intervals might be more applicable for invertebrates (Scott et al 1995). A recovery goal exists on a spectrum from survival…: “The recovery goal for the western prairie fringed-orchid is to maintain the persistence and viability of Canada’s only metapopulation. “ …through partial recovery…: “The overall long term goal of this recovery strategy is to reverse the decline and ensure the long-term persistence of a sufficient number of secure and viable populations of wild American Ginseng throughout the historical range in Canada, following the general principles of ecological representation, resiliency, and redundancy. …to full recovery: “The long-term recovery goal (>20 years) for butternut is to achieve viable, self-sustaining, ecologically functioning, and broadly distributed populations within its current range in Canada.” 4.2 What Are Population and Distribution Objectives ? Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 7 Population and distribution objectives (P&D objectives) should aim to further quantify recovery goals for greater precision by establishing, to the extent possible, the number of individuals and/or, populations and the geographic distribution of the species required to successfully reach the recovery goal(s). Where meaningful quantitative statements are not possible, a clear and measurable qualitative statement can be used. In both cases, the SMART acronym (see section 4.4) applies to the P&D objectives. In some cases, the population and distribution objectives are incorporated into the goal. they can be quantitative… “The long-term recovery goal for Henslow’s Sparrow is to increase the Canadian population to a stable annual minimum population of 50 breeding pairs, spread among at least 3 geographically distinct nesting areas over the next 20 years. Rationale: Although this population size is not expected to be self-sustaining without immigration from populations in the United States, it is expected to be achievable. In the early 1980’s, the Canadian population was at this level, until key habitat became unsuitable through lack of appropriate management (R. Knapton, pers. comm.). [Environment Canada, 2006, Recovery Strategy for the Henslow’s Sparrow (Ammodramus henslowii) in Canada (Proposed).] “ ...or qualitative “The recovery goal for the small white lady’s-slipper is to maintain the persistence of all viable or potentially viable populations in Canada. Rationale: Although human activities have contributed to the decline in abundance and distribution of small white lady’s-slipper in Canada, this species was historically rare with known populations occurring only in isolated pockets in southern Manitoba and Ontario. There is little potential for this species to be down-listed from endangered. Nevertheless, it appears feasible to maintain this species in the regions of Manitoba and Ontario where it is currently found. [Environment Canada, 2006, Recovery Strategy for the Small White Lady’s-slipper (Cypripedium candidum) in Canada (Proposed).]” In other cases they are separate. “Recovery Goal Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 8 The recovery goal for western prairie fringed-orchid is to maintain the persistence and viability of Canada’s only metapopulation. Population and Distribution Objectives To ensure the long-term survival of western prairie fringed-orchid by maintaining the population at its current size (within its natural range of variability as observed between 1992 and 2005) and by maintaining the population’s current distribution and area of occupancy.” 4.3 What are Recovery Objectives? Recovery objectives work together to support the goal and the P&D objectives by delineating what is needed to attain it. Recovery objectives are established once a recovery goal and P&D objectives) are in place, and are driven by a range of biological and scientific factors. They may differ among populations or conservation units, although collectively they should contribute to the overall recovery goal for the species. The recovery objectives describe a set of distinct and measurable accomplishments necessary and sufficient to move towards the goal and P&D objectives. The goal and the P&D objectives usually can not be attained by one recovery objective or one program alone, but rather by a number of activities or actions and a sustained effort over a long period of time. The setting of recovery objectives helps to clarify the variety and breadth of changes needed. Five to ten recovery objectives are usually sufficient to describe what is needed at an appropriate level of detail. Recovery objectives describe what needs to be done to achieve the goal and the P&D objectives without mentioning the means or approaches and they are SMART (see next section): Determine population sizes and trends for all extant populations in Canada Devise an appropriate management strategy in response to the current and expanding threat to forests from invasive insects and pathogens. Identify historic populations with the potential for enhancement or restoration Fill the current knowledge gaps with respect to species mechanisms of seed dispersal, seed germination rates, and germination requirements. 4.4 Recovery Objectives and P&D Objectives should be SMART The following SMART acronym is often used to describe important characteristics of good objectives: Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 9 Specific: clearly and concisely state what needs to be achieved in terms of population size/number, species distribution or threat reduction to reach the recovery goal; use action words. Measurable: present, either quantitatively or qualitatively, in a way that makes it possible to know when the outcome has been reached; quantify the amount of change to be achieved. Achievable: be realistic given known limitations and threats. Relevant and results-focused: relate objectives to recovery goals and the needs of the species; focus on outcomes rather than activities. Time-bound: specify a time target by which the objective is to be reached (5 years is a good short-term timeframe). In some cases it is helpful to set both long-term and short-term objectives. Other times there is only sufficient understanding to set short-term objectives. Long term goals and objectives should represent the ultimate state we are trying to achieve for the species, while short term objectives establish benchmarks along the way to ensure progress towards the recovery goal. 4.5 General Rules in Setting Recovery Goals and Population and Distribution Objectives To the extent practical, follow these three general rules based on experience and common sense when setting goals and P&D objectives (after Shaffer et al 2002). Representation – Strive to maximize ecological representation of all populations throughout the range of the listed wildlife species. For example, if populations of the listed species occupy different types of natural communities (e.g., tallgrass prairie, peatland), then it is advisable to conserve each of those different ecotypes or forms. Otherwise, important components of the species biological diversity and ecological representation may be lost forever. Redundancy – Maintain multiple populations of the species to guard against unpredictable catastrophic loss (e.g., due to severe drought, wildfire, virulent disease). It is widely recognized that the existence of numerous and geographically widespread populations generally tends to reduce the likelihood that any single catastrophe will eradicate all populations. Resiliency – Aim to assure that each population is large enough so that it is not swamped by the effects of demographic uncertainty or short-term inbreeding. In other words, populations should be large enough so that they can respond to favourable environmental conditions when they occur and, conversely, not be trapped in the demographic and genetic vortices that result from existing at very low numbers. Where possible, develop quantitative goals using an ecologically appropriate probability of persistence and an acceptable level of risk of extinction. This information can be Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 10 provided in the rationale for the goal as an explanation of how the goal was arrived at. Where this is not possible, be as quantitative and clear as the knowledge of the species allows. Most recovery goals consider two main concepts: (1) demographic viability: the population size and structure required to ensure long term persistence (see Appendix 1 for further information), and (2) current and historical distribution: an ecologically appropriate extent of distribution for the species (Bickerton and Hartley 2004). Goals should be based on the biological and/or ecological requirements for the species to persist.8 4.6 Steps to Setting and Implementing Recovery Goals and Objectives 4.6.1. Recovery Strategy Step 1: Set a recovery goal. One of the first steps in setting recovery goals will be to conceptually and/or analytically determine where on the recovery spectrum the species most appropriately falls. Is the aim to maintain the species or increase its range and abundance? To what extent? What would have to be achieved for the species to be considered recovered? Once answers to these questions are understood, recovery planners can think more specifically about what the species requires for long term persistence (at whatever point on the survival-recovery spectrum). To address this broad question, it is helpful to consider that, from a conservation perspective, not all species are equivalent with respect to the extent to which we should seek to improve their probability of persistence. As a starting point, determine recovery goals for individual species by considering the species’ historical status in relation to its current status. For example: Was the species’ distribution once relatively widespread or narrow? Was the species once relatively abundant or rare? Did the species increase in range and/or numbers due to human-made conditions that are now changing? Ideally, the goal set for the species should encompass the maintenance or re-establishment of appropriately viable populations of the species. With this in mind, most species can be categorized as one of five general species types as a guide to preliminary thinking about recovery goals. The five general species types are as follows: 1. Distribution within Canada was historically, and is currently, very restricted. Examples include species with only the very northern edge of their range occurring in Canada, as well as highly localized endemics. These species have not declined drastically from historic levels and are usually listed due to very small populations or limited distributions. High probability of persistence may be an inappropriate goal 8 Where recovery is not feasible, an appropriate goal may be to maintain the habitats with the highest probability of maintaining the species should it persist or recur. Where the not feasible determination is a result of possible extirpation or extinction, the goal may be to develop and/or maintain the ability to detect and act upon any change in knowledge or state of the species that may warrant a revised assessment or revised feasibility determination. Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 11 for these species as they were never particularly viable. Recovery goals might aim to maintain or re-establish only (approximately) historical levels of occurrence and appropriate viability (e.g., moderate probability of persistence) within Canada, even if the species remains dependent on immigration from outside Canada or continued conservation activities. Examples of this type of species include the Banff Springs snail, Yellow-breasted chat, Aurora trout, and Eastern mountain avens. 2. Historically more widespread, with little opportunity for re-introduction into former range. Species in this category have generally lost large portions of formerly occupied habitat, and often are listed due to declining numbers in combination with habitat loss. Restoring these species to their historic levels is likely no longer possible, however some improvement in the probability of persistence may still be achievable. Recovery goals might aim to curb, halt, or reverse the rate of population decline or habitat loss. Plains bison and Gaspésie population of woodland caribou are examples of this type of species. 3. Historically more widespread, with some opportunity for re-introduction into former range. Species in this category also are no longer found in large portions of formerly occupied habitat but, in contrast to above, habitat loss is not as severe or the potential to restore habitat is high. Therefore, it may be possible to restore these species nearer to historic levels of viability. Recovery goals may focus on improving upon the species’ current population size, distribution, and probability of persistence. Wood bison and marbled murrelet represent species of this type. 4. Historically more widespread, but still potentially viable within remaining habitat. Although species in this category may no longer be found in portions of their former range, the remaining habitat may still be capable of supporting a viable population(s) of the species. In these cases, recovery goals might focus on preventing further constriction of the distribution and increasing population size closer to carrying capacity. Boreal population of woodland caribou is an example of this type of species. 5. Historically restricted within Canada, but took advantage of early agricultural practices to expand range; now reduced by changes in land use. Species in this category expanded their range into Canada after European settlement but large portions of that part of their range are no longer suitable because of urbanization, agricultural intensification, or regrowth of forests. In these cases, recovery goals might focus on maintaining suitable habitat in appropriate settings. Loggerhead shrike and Bobwhite are examples of this type of species. The COSEWIC assessment criteria for the species will provide background on why the species was listed as well as give insight into future conditions that could lead to its delisting. Questions useful for refining recovery goals include (Nelson et al 2004): Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 12 Are there biological or environmental factors that will limit recovery? Will recovery involve increasing the number of individual occurrences and filling in distribution gaps? Will recovery involve expanding the current range of the species, and to what extent? Is there suitable habitat available for population expansion? How serious and numerous are the threats to the species and can they be reversed? Step 2: Set population and distribution objectives that define the recovery goal. Population and distribution objectives should establish the number of individuals, populations, or geographic distribution of the species required to successfully reach the recovery goals. Ideally, they should be quantifiable targets that are practically measurable at an operational level. There are a number of types of quantifiable metrics that might be set as specific population and distribution objectives, including (Gerber and Hatch 2002): Population size or number of populations Population trend Habitat quantity, trend, or quality (e.g., total range, quantity of habitat, quality of habitat) Demographic rates (e.g., recruitment rate) Viability analysis (either conceptual or computer simulated) provides a framework for estimating quantifiable targets required to reach a particular goal. There are many possible methods for estimating viability, ranging from approximations by species experts to predictions based on computer simulation modelling such as PVA (population viability analysis) (Appendix 2). Which method is most suitable will depend on the amount of information known about the species (i.e., level of uncertainty) and the complexity of the particular situation. Detailing various methods for determining viability is beyond the scope of this guidance, for further information refer to: Morris et al 1999, Andleman et al 2001, Beissinger and Mccullough 2002. An alternative to estimating probability of persistence and risk of extinction based on population size (i.e., typical PVA methods) is to base estimates on population trends. For example, use phrasing such as “a 95% probability of a statistically significant increase in population size”, or “no greater then 5% probability of significant population decline (Reed 2002).” For species where absolute values are highly uncertain, relative values may be used: “increase population size by 5% over 10 years”. In many cases, information about population size, trends, demography, or habitat quantity or quality may be insufficient even for relative measures. In such situations, what is thought to be needed to achieve recovery goals can be stated qualitatively (e.g., Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 13 specifying whether the population or distribution will need to be expanded or merely maintained). Even qualitative targets may be clear and measurable: “prevent loss of any known populations or habitat”. The more vague population and distribution objectives become, the harder it is to evaluate the success of recovery actions and to justify the amount of critical habitat required to recover the species. Applying the SMART acronym will ensure the required characteristics. When information is lacking to establish quantifiable objectives, this should be addressed within the knowledge gaps section of the recovery strategy and studies to obtain the necessary information should be included in the recovery planning approaches. Defining population objectives should be an iterative process, especially in situations where little is known about the species at the time of listing. The objectives can be refined as data are gathered and knowledge increases. Appropriate studies to strengthen population objectives should be identified as part of the recovery actions to be undertaken. Solid, biologically-founded population objectives will provide the best foundation for developing recovery measures and for defending them in debates around conflicting land use. Remember, when the process is highly iterative, it will be important to document any changes to objectives, including the rationale behind them. Step 3: Set Recovery Objectives. Changes in population or distribution of a species may be slow in response to recovery actions, be difficult to measure, or where natural fluctuations occur, be difficult to interpret. Setting recovery objectives that address threats or factors limiting to the species can facilitate evaluating progress towards the goal and help to guide the recovery program for a species. The SMART acronym applies equally to these other objectives. As with goals and population and distribution objectives, these objectives clarify what needs to be accomplished and use action words but do not specify the means. Five to ten objectives are usually sufficient to address these needs. Common areas addressed include: Reduction of a specific threat Assessment of population trend Development and implementation of stewardship Development and implementation of education program Habitat or population restoration or management While further research may be needed in order to achieve the goal and population and distribution objectives, in the context of a recovery strategy, research is not itself a recovery objective. Step 4: Maintain a Logic-Flow within the Recovery Strategy. Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 14 Within the recovery strategy, recovery objectives must be linked clearly to the approaches and activities within the recovery planning table9. One or more approaches are required for each objective and each approach must link to one or more objectives, although some general approaches may be in support of all the objectives as a whole. While the goal specifies what the future will look like and the objectives detail what is needed to obtain that future, the approaches set out the means that will be used to get there. Goals and objectives also must be clearly linked to performance measures.10 Performance measures should address both the outputs (which approaches and activities were undertaken) and the outcomes (what was the effect on the species, its habitat, or threats) and ultimately should address how much closer we are to reaching the goal. To the extent possible, performance measures should be clear and realistic. It may be possible to assess outputs annually but, depending on the life history and ecology of the species, it may take longer to achieve measurable changes in the levels of threat and even longer to achieve measurable changes in habitat, distribution, or population size. 4.6.2. Action Plan Step 5: Establish the scope of and direction for the Action Plan. Action Plans outline what will be done to implement the recovery strategy 11. Thus the first step in developing the action plan is to determine which objectives from the recovery strategy will be addressed and to what extent. Action plans may address objectives from more than one recovery strategy; more than one action plan may be required to address the objectives of any one recovery strategy. The scope of the Action Plan may be defined geographically or by topic. Decisions around what to exclude from the action plan (i.e. which geographic areas or objectives will not be addressed) need to be carefully documented (in meeting minutes or elsewhere) as to the issues considered, the pros and cons, and the final reasons for the decision. The action plan itself should contain a clear statement of which objectives from which strategies will be addressed and to what extent. It should also refer to other related action plans that may address remaining objectives or areas. SARA 41(1)(d). Recovery Strategies must include ‘a statement of the population and distribution objectives…and a general description of the research and management activities needed to meet those objectives.’ 10 SARA 46. ‘The competent minister must report on the implementation of the recovery strategy and the progress towards meeting its objectives, within five years after it is included in the public registry and in every subsequent five-year period, until its objectives have been achieved or the species’ recovery is no longer feasible.’ 11 SARA s49(1)(d). Action plans must include ‘a statement of the measures that are to be taken to implement the recovery strategy, including those that address the threats to the species and those that help to achieve the population and distribution objectives, as well as an indiciation of when these measures are to take place’. 9 Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 15 Once the scope is clear, the next set of decisions involves how best to address the scope. Basing action planning solely on biological criteria can result in proposals that are not practical or achievable given the known or perceived limitations facing the species recovery (Scott et al 1995). Distinguishing between biological and nonbiological factors in decision making enables better decision making and ultimately enables evaluation of the reasons behind the success or failure of recovery actions. Decisions around action planning should take into account (1) the threats to the species, (2) how effective each proposed recovery action is at mitigating the threats, (3) the likelihood of being able to successfully implement the action, (4) risk associated with either implementing or not implementing the action, and (5) the extent to which socioeconomic factors might influence (either positively or negatively) the implementation of the recovery actions. There may be various strategies or options for taking the above factors into account, creating multiple potential ‘pathways’ to achieving population objectives. When threats or other limitations are factored into setting the course for recovery actions, it is of critical importance that the decision is based on comparing alternate scenarios to achieving the objectives, which have been based purely on biological factors, with the biological costs to the species clearly presented as changes in expected viability (i.e., to the probability of reaching long term recovery goals; Scott et al 1995). Thus, at a minimum, ‘biologically-based’ recovery actions should be considered. Doing this would document the actions required to fully meet established recovery goals. In addition, one or more alternative options for how recovery goals might be met may be established. If various options are considered, document the respective benefits and risks to the species. 4.6.3. Implementation and Reporting Step 6: Monitor the species and provide feedback into the iterative process of establishing goals and objectives Action plans must include the methods to be used to monitor the recovery of the species and its long term viability (SARA s49 (1) (d.1). Monitoring should provide feedback on recovery progress—are objectives being met and goals being reached? Can data be collected to further refine goals and objectives? It is important to establish indicators for measuring progress toward goals and objectives before monitoring begins. For example, important considerations might include: 1. What metrics will be used to assess the status and trends in individuals of the species (e.g., the number of individuals, redds, dens, or nests) and/or the quality of individuals (e.g., individual size, age, or stage)? 2. What population metrics will be used to assess the status and trends of populations of the species (e.g., the number of populations, Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 16 geographic distribution) and/or the quality of populations (e.g., size, density, growth rate, or connectivity)? 3. What metrics will be used to measure threat reduction (e.g., amount or rate of habitat quality or loss, changes in amount of persecution, and public perception)? Indicators used for monitoring must be measurable, precise, consistent, and sensitive to population-level change. Progress towards objectives will be the baseline against which the viability of the species will be measured. Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 17 References Andelman, S. J., et al. 2001. Scientific Standards for Conducting Viability Assessments under the National Forest Management Act: Report and Recommendations of the NCEAS Working Group. Unpublished Report by the National Center for Ecological Analysis and Synthesis, University of California, Santa Barbara, California, USA. Available online at http://www.treesearch.fs.fed.us/pubs/viewpub.jsp?index=3467 Beissinger, S. R. and Mccullough, D. R., eds. 2002. Population Viability Analysis. University of Chicago Press. Chicago, Illinois. Bickerton, H. and K Hartley. 2004. Goals and Objectives in Recovery Planning. Presentation at Recovery Planning Training Session, Ontario Parks, Species at Risk Section, October 25-26 2004, Peterborough, ON. Environment Canada. 2005a. Technical Guidelines for Identifying Critical Habitat (Draft). Species at Risk Implementation Guidance. Ottawa. Canada. Environment Canada. 2005b. Policy on the Feasibility of Recovery (Draft). Species at Risk Act Policy. Ottawa. Canada. Gerber, L. R. and L. T. Hatch. 2002. Are we recovering? An evaluation of recovery criteria under the U.S. Endangered species Act. Ecological Applications 12: 668673. Morris, W., D. Doak, M. Groom, P. Kareiva, J. Fieberg, P. Murphy, and D. Thomson. 1999. A Practical Handbook for Population Viability Analysis. The Nature Conservancy. Nelson, K., J. Hammond, C. Eros, and D. Cunnington. 2004. Goals and Objectives in Recovery Planning. Presentation at Species at Risk 2004: Pathways to Recovery. March 2-6 2004, Victoria BC. Reed, J. M. 2002. Problems Setting Goals for Population Viability, Regional Conservation, and Designating Critical Habitat. Presentation given at Environment Canada Workshop, Critical Habitat for Species at Risk: How Much is Enough? December 7-10 2002, Ottawa, Canada. Scott, J. M., T. H. Tear, and L. S. Mills. 1995. Socioeconomics and the recovery of endangered species: biological assessment in a political world. Conservation Biology 9: 214-216. Shaffer et al. (2002) Population viability analysis and conservation policy. In Population Viability Analysis (Beissinger, S. R. and Mccullough, D. R., eds.), pp. 123-146, University of Chicago Press Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 18 Appendix 1. Related Concepts Viability Viability is a measure used to estimate the capacity of a species or population to persist through time and thus is a useful criterion to consider when establishing recovery goals. Persistence refers to the continued existence of a species through time, and is closely related to the concept of viability. Viability estimates have two components – a particular probability and a length of time. Viability can be expressed both as a probability of persistence (e.g., 95% probability of persisting for 20 years) or as a probability of extinction (e.g., 10% probability of extinction over 50 years). The length of time chosen can greatly influence the quantification of recovery goals. For example, the number of individuals required to ensure a 95% probability of persistence over 5 years will likely be much smaller than the number required to ensure a 95% probability of persistence over 100 years. Species viability is determined by understanding a number of factors including: Population size and structure - number of individuals, distribution among stages & subpopulations, density, trends Habitat – quality, amount, arrangement Demography – survival, fecundity, dispersal rates Trends and fluctuations in these rates Breeding system, sex ratio Relationships between demographic rates & habitat; demographic rates & population size Threats to the species and its habitat Consideration of the species ‘natural’ role in the ecosystem Risk Recovery goals could be accompanied by an appropriate level of risk of not achieving the goal. The chosen level of risk can influence the quantification of recovery goals. For example, the number of individuals required for a population to have a 50% probability of persistence over 20 years will likely be fewer than that required for a 99% probability of persistence over 20 years. Similarly, accepting a 10% risk of extinction over 25 years sets a more stringent goal than accepting a 30% risk of extinction over 25 years. Due to uncertainty stemming from incomplete knowledge and stochasticity in natural systems, there is also risk that the goals and objectives set to recover the species are in fact either not sufficient or not necessary to do so. Setting insufficient goals jeopardizes the recovery of the species while unnecessary goals are difficult to defend against competing interests. It is important to communicate the perceived level of uncertainty and risk involved in setting goals and objectives. Application of the precautionary Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07) 19 principle suggests that when setting goals and objectives in situations where uncertainty about what is required for long term persistence of a species is high, recovery planner(s)s should err on the side of ensuring persistence. Appendix 2. Model types and associated data requirements for estimating population objectives or viability. Selecting the appropriate model should be based on the type of data available. Type of Data Available Appropriate Model Experts, data collected for other purposes, allometrics, qualitative data Develop conceptual model; N (current and target) based on educated guess Above + single count (census in one time step) Estimate N Above + counts over time (census in multiple time steps) Scalar model (estimate N, trend) Above + life history information (censuses include data on stage, age, sex ) Structured model Above + demographic data (survival, reproduction) Structured model Any of the above with spatial data Same models with spatial structure (e.g., habitat-based PVA) Guidelines for Establishing Recovery Goals and Objectives (18/07/07)