Download The Blind Men and the Earth

The Blind Men and the Earth
An Environmental Parable
by Daniel S. Goldin
from Harvard International Review, May 2006
1.
In the parable about the blind men and the elephant, each man,
concentrating on the single feature of the animal he touched first, confidently
maintains his opinion on the nature of the huge beast. The blind man who touches
the elephant’s leg is sure it is a tree. The one who grabs the trunk claims with
certainty it is a snake. And so it goes: the ear is a fan, and the tail is a rope with a
brush on the end. The blind men each studied the elephant but were each limited to
a single point of contact. They based their judgment on individual experience, not on
the object as a whole. As a result, they were all wrong.
2.
In a significant way, this story is a fitting metaphor for our approach to global
warming and planet Earth, from the irresponsible denials of the scientific validity of
climate change to the worthwhile questions about its cause and ultimately to the allimportant issues about how far too often our conclusions are based only on our very
limited perception. Few are alarmed when they hear of deforestation or melting sea
ice halfway around the globe. But to understand the complexities of our planet, we
can no longer turn a blind eye to the world around us. We must see the Earth as it
truly is — an interconnected living whole.
3.
Fortunately, we have the means to do just that. We just have to broaden our
individual experience and look from space. From space we can see Earth as a whole
in its larger planetary context. We can see and feel the pulse of our entire planet by
studying the dynamic system of land and oceans and atmosphere and life.
4.
When I led the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA), I was
always inspired when the astronauts described our planet. In beautiful detail, they
would talk about how you could see the continents and the oceans and how they fit
together. But they also talked about what you could not see. Especially, they talked
about borders. From near-Earth orbit, it becomes immediately apparent that those
shaded lines in an atlas do not show up. Borders between nations become
meaningless. The only line astronauts routinely talked about is the beautiful, thin,
and illuminated turquoise line that separates our planet from the infinite black
background of space.
5.
That line, of course, is our atmosphere, and it means everything. Our
atmosphere is why Earth, alone among its neighbors in the solar system, supports
plentiful and diverse life. It is what distinguishes us from our lifeless neighbors Venus
and Mars, even though during their formation they were probably very similar to
Earth. Our atmosphere outlines a unique planet that is both strong and balanced
and at the same time fragile and precarious. But most of all, our atmosphere, along
with the oceans and the land masses it interacts with, is shared—by developed
countries, developing countries, and all of those in between. Pictures and
measurements of the Earth taken from space prove this beyond a doubt.
]‫[הקלד טקסט‬
6.
The view astronauts have of Madagascar, for instance, is remarkable. Needing
more farmland to feed a growing population, Madagascar’s residents have destroyed
about 80 percent of their indigenous local forests. Once almost entirely green, the
image from space is now one of a brownish-red empty land. At the local level, entire
ecosystems become endangered. On the global scale, rainfall patterns are upset. As
greenhouse gases and ash are generated and released into the atmosphere, they
absorb or reflect solar radiation, thereby suppressing the rainfall that helps wash
away pollutants in many areas of our planet.
7.
Other satellite images have shown pollution clouds from scenarios not unlike
that of Madagascar. In the spring of 2001, a giant natural dust storm originating in
the Gobi Desert in China was monitored by satellites as it traveled east over Beijing,
Japan, the Pacific Ocean, and, just over a month later, Death Valley in California,
bringing fog to an area known for clear skies.
8.
Remote sensing observations or the observations of the Earth and its
resources from space have given us a more comprehensive perspective of our land
and air. The same holds true for the seas. Because it is the interaction of the ocean
with the atmosphere that drives climate, ocean temperature has an enormous impact
worldwide. It is estimated that the storms, floods, droughts, and fires that
accompanied the El Niño effect1 of 1997-1998 claimed more than 30,000 lives,
displaced hundreds of millions of people, and cost nearly US$100 billion.
9.
Today, we are in a better position to warn vulnerable populations of a
forthcoming event such as El Niño. By measuring sea surface temperature from
space, we also have maps of “hot spots” where unusually warm temperatures are
threatening the coral reefs upon which more than 30 million people worldwide
depend.
10.
While the coral reefs remind us of the tropics, the best place to study climate
change may be the Arctic, where the rate of change is more extreme due to the
phase change of water and ice, a condition Douglas Martinson of Columbia University
calls “polar amplification.” Whereas the average global temperature has increased
1°F, the arctic temperature has increased 4°F in the summer and 8°F in the winter.
In addition, NASA has determined that over the past few decades, the Arctic ice cap
has decreased about 40 percent in thickness and the summer sea ice expanse is
declining about 3 percent per decade.
11.
Yet another perspective comes from an Alaskan named Caleb Pungowiyi. He is
not a scientist but someone whose lifeline is the sea ice of the Arctic coastline. When
I met him, he talked about what the loss of ice meant for him and his community —
not only are they losing land, but fisherman and hunters have to travel farther away
from home as the animal life is also affected. He concluded: “We are strong people
and we adjust readily to change but if that change is too rapid, too disruptive, it
causes social chaos, hardship, and suffering.”
‫ זרמים חמים אלו שהופעתם עשויה להימשך מספר‬.‫ שם ניתן להופעתם של זרמי מים חמים בחופי פרו ואקוואדור‬1
.‫עולמיים‬-‫ גורמים שיבושים במזג האוויר כלל‬,‫חודשים‬
]‫[הקלד טקסט‬
12.
That is the message for the world community as we move forward. The issue
of climate change is not just one of a few degrees. Climate patterns determine fresh
water availability and therefore agriculture and other resources worldwide. History
shows that people will follow resources and, often tragically, fight and die for them
too. Admittedly, that is a worst-case scenario. But it is time to act.
13.
First, the United States invests about US$1.7 billion per year in climate change
research, more than the rest of the world combined. But the clock is still ticking. The
United States can, should, and must move much more rapidly to educate the world
about the coming changes to the climate and their impact on life on Earth. The
United States should lead, and the rest of the world community should follow.
14.
Second, when the United States says “the rest of the world community,” it
must mean it. The United States must include not only the developed and developing
countries but also the least developed countries who, at least, must participate in
data analysis and modeling. If they understand the global science and the
consequential impact of climate change, they should be more receptive to working
with the United States on techniques for mitigation and adaptation. We know with
certainty that our atmosphere, land, and oceans are an integrated system.
Therefore, our research and mitigation strategies must be integrated as well.
15.
Finally, research so far has been unsystematic and modeling efforts are
fragmented and uneven. We have learned enough to know that both nature and
human civilization are impacting the climate system. The difficulty lies in
distinguishing human-induced changes from natural variability. Thus, we are left with
policymakers debating two competing models as if each extreme is the only
possibility. The consequences would be serious if we were locked into one single
solution with no alternative should it not work, or worse, were totally wrong.
16.
For the time being, to whatever degree possible, let us take the politics out of
the science. Let us put our energy where it would be most useful— into more
research. Let us use the latest technologies, space-based and other, to develop more
models — competing models and broader models, peer-reviewed on a worldwide
basis.
17.
The reason we must do this goes back to the parable of the blind men and the
elephant. Each came up with a different scenario based upon his individual
experience. But what if the blind men consulted with one another? What if they
joined hands, asked questions, and compared observations? Perhaps if they put the
parts together they would have understood the whole. Let us not turn a blind eye to
our planet and make the same mistake.
]‫[הקלד טקסט‬