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Transcript
Chapter 5:
Sampling Distributions
(Part 2)
Dr. Nahid Sultana
Chapter 5:
Sampling Distributions
5.1 The Sampling Distribution of a
Sample Mean
5.2 Sampling Distributions for Counts and
Proportions
5.2 Sampling Distributions for
Counts and Proportions
Binomial Distributions for Sample Counts
Binomial Distributions in Statistical Sampling
Binomial Mean and Standard Deviation
Sample Proportions
Normal Approximation for Counts and Proportions
Binomial Formula
3
Count and Sample proportion
Study of sampling distributions with the simplest case of a random variable,
where there are only two possible outcomes.
Example: A sample survey asks 2000 college students whether they think
that parents put too much pressure on their children. We will view the
responses of these sampled students as an SRS from a population.
Here we have only two possible outcomes for a random variable.
Let,
n = the sample size and
X = represent the r.v. that gives the
count for the outcome of interest.
When a random variable has two
possible outcomes, we can use the
sample proportion,
a summary.

p = X/n, as
Example: Here n = 2000 college
students and X=840 is the number of
students who think that parents put
too much pressure on their children.
What is the sample proportion of
students surveyed who think that
parents put too much pressure on
their children?

p = 840/2000 = 0.42
Binomial distribution for sample counts
The distribution of a count X depends on how the data are produced. Here is
a simple but common situation.
The Binomial Setting
A binomial setting arises when we perform several independent trials
(also called observations) of the same chance process and record the
number of times that a particular outcome occurs. There are four conditions
for a binomial setting:
1. There are a fixed number n of observations.
2. The n observations are all independent.
3. Each observation falls into one of just two categories, which for
convenience we call “success” and “failure.”
4. The probability of a success, call it p, is the same for each observation.
5
5
Example (Binomial Setting):
Tossing a coin n times.
(1) n is fixed;
(2) each toss gives either heads or tails;
(3) knowing the outcome of one toss does not change the probability of an outcome
on any other toss i.e. independent;
(4) If we define heads as a success, then p=1/2 is the probability of a head and is
same for any toss.
The number of heads in n tosses is a binomial random variable X. The probability
distribution of X is called a binomial distribution.
Binomial Distribution
The count X of successes in a binomial setting has the binomial
distribution with parameters n and p, denoted by B(n, p).
where n is the number of trials of the chance process and p is the probability
of a success on any one trial.
The possible values of X are the whole numbers from 0 to n.
Note: Not all counts have binomial distributions; be sure to check the conditions for a
binomial setting and make sure you’re being asked to count the number of successes
in6 a certain number of trials!
Example (Binomial Distribution
Toss a fair coin 15 times. Give the distribution of X, the number of heads
that you observe.
We have 15 independent trials, each with probability of success (heads)
equal to 0.5.
So X has the B(15, 0.5) distribution.
Note: The binomial distributions are an important class of discrete
probability distributions.
Binomial Distributions in Statistical Sampling
The binomial distributions are important in statistics when we want to
make inferences about the proportion p of successes in a population.
Sampling Distribution of a Count
Choose an SRS of size n from a population with proportion p of successes.
When the population is much larger than the sample, the count X of
successes in the sample has approximately the binomial distribution B(n, p).
The accuracy of this approximation improves as the size of the population
increases relative to the size of the sample.
Note: Usually we use the binomial sampling distribution for counts when
the population is at least 20 times as large as the sample.
8
Binomial Mean and Standard Deviation
If a count X has the binomial distribution based on n observations with
probability p of success, what is its mean and standard deviation?
Here are the facts:
Mean and Standard Deviation of a Binomial Random Variable
If a count X has the binomial distribution with number of trials n and
probability of success p, the mean and standard deviation of X are:
μ = np
X
σ X = np(1 − p)
Note: These formulas work ONLY for binomial distributions.
They can’t be used for other distributions!
9
Normal Approximation for
Binomial Distributions
As n gets larger, something interesting happens to the shape of a binomial
distribution.
Normal Approximation for Binomial Distributions
Suppose that X has the binomial distribution with n trials and
success probability p. When n is large, the distribution of X is
approximately Normal with mean and standard deviation
µX = np
10As a rule of thumb, we will use the Normal approximation when n is
so large that np ≥ 10 and n(1 – p) ≥ 10.
Example:
A survey asked a nationwide random sample of 2500 adults if they agreed or
disagreed that “I like buying new clothes, but shopping is often frustrating and timeconsuming.”
Suppose that exactly 60% of all adult U.S. residents would say “Agree” if asked the
same question. Let X = the number in the sample who agree.
Estimate the probability that 1520 or more of the sample agree.
Check the conditions for using a Normal approximation.
Since np = 2500(0.60) = 1500 and n(1 – p) = 2500(0.40) = 1000 are both at
least 10, we may use the Normal approximation.
3) Calculate P(X ≥ 1520) using a Normal approximation.
μ = np = 2500(0.60) = 1500
σ = np(1 − p) = 2500(0.60)(0.40) = 24.49
11
Sampling Distribution of a Sample
Proportion
There is an important connection between the sample proportion pˆ and
the number of " successes" X in the sample.
count of successes in sample X
pˆ =
=
size of sample
n
Sampling Distribution of a Sample Proportion
Choose an SRS of size n from a population of size N with proportion p
of successes. Let pˆ be the sample proportion of successes. Then:
The standard deviation of the sampling distribution is
p(1 − p)
σ pˆ =
n
For large n, pˆ has approximately the N( p, p(1 − p) /n distribution.
As n increases, the sampling distribution becomes approximately Normal.
12
Binomial Formula
The number of ways of arranging k successes among n observations is
given by the binomial coefficient
 n
n!
 =
 k  k!(n − k)!
for k = 0, 1, 2, …, n.
Note: n! = n(n – 1)(n – 2)•…•(3)(2)(1) ; and 0! = 1.
13
Binomial Probability
If X has the binomial distribution with n trials and probability p of
success on each trial, the possible values of X are 0, 1, 2, …, n. If k
is any one of these values,
 n k
P(X = k) =   p (1 − p) n −k
 k
Number of
arrangements
of k successes
14
Probability of k
successes
Probability of
n-k failures