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CAMERA TRAP ASSESSMENT OF THE MAMMALIAN ASSEMBLAGES WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA By John C. Lisek A Thesis presented in partial fulfillment of the requirements for the degree of Master of Science in the Department of Biology and Earth Sciences University of Central Missouri March 2013 © 2013 John C. Lisek ALL RIGHTS RESERVED CAMERA TRAP ASSESSMENT OF THE MAMMALIAN ASSEMBLAGES WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA by John C. Lisek May 2013 APPROVED: Thesis Chair: Dr. Victoria L. Jackson Thesis Committee Member: Dr. Stephen Wilson Thesis Committee Member: Ms. Jennifer Mittelhauser ACCEPTED: Chair, Department of Biology and Earth Science: Dr. Fanson Kidwaro UNIVERSITY OF CENTRAL MISSOURI WARRENSBURG, MISSOURI ACKNOWLEDGMENTS In appreciation of all those who assisted and contributed to the success of my graduate research, I would like to express my sincere gratitude for your time, effort, and advice. There were many who supported me both in Africa and in the United States, and I would like to extend a special thanks to the following groups and individuals. I would like to thank Dr. Joy Stevenson, the UCMO International Office, Dean Alice Greife, Phd., and the Research Assistance Grant (2011) from the College of Science and Technology for contributing financially toward my efforts. The University of Central Missouri (UCMO) Department of Biology and Earth Science and Dr. Victoria Jackson were also gracious in allowing me to utilize department cameras and GPS equipment. I would like to thank Dr. Victoria Jackson and Mrs. Jennifer Mittelhauser, MS, for assisting with the strategic planning of my trip and the logistics of transporting my equipment to Africa. A big thank you must also be extended to Stuart Quinn and the African Conservation Experience (ACE) Program for welcoming my study to their site and for their assistance with hunting bait, setting cameras, and providing me with food and shelter during my stay. Along with Stuart and the ACE team, I would also like to thank Jennifer Mittelhauser, Barry Pabst, Casey Zimmerman, David Penning, Yuki Tsunoda, Sarah Campion, Pippa Snell, Tina Bulley, Rachel Kirbby, Bernie O’Neill, Alex Firth, and Jackie Nichol for assisting me with the placement and monitoring of cameras. Upon my return to the United States, there were many who assisted with the analysis of my data. I would like to thank Dr. Keshav Bhattarai for assisting me with my education in utilizing Geographic Information Systems (GIS) and for his assistance with any questions during the creation of my maps. My advisor, Dr. Jackson, was very instrumental with the editing of my thesis drafts, and I would like to thank her and the members of my committee for their recommendations and support. Dr. Jackson, Dr. Stephen Wilson, and Jennifer Mittelhauser were extremely helpful in providing constructive criticism and suggestions to help me best express my findings and results. Last, but not least, I would like to thank my wife, Andrea Lisek, for all the support and assistance during late night reviewing and editing sessions. This has been an enlightening and rewarding experience, and it is my hope that this research can further the protection of African mammals and research techniques within the scientific community. Thank you for all of your assistance with this opportunity. Table of Contents ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ............................................................................................................ IV LIST OF TABLES ..................................................................................................................... VIII LIST OF FIGURES ..................................................................................................................... XII CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW ......................................... 1 GENERAL BACKGROUND ..................................................................................................... 1 BOTSWANA’S NORTHERN TULI GAME RESERVE .......................................................... 2 IMPORTANCE OF MAINTAINING DIVERSITY .................................................................. 4 SURVEY METHODS FOR ELUSIVE SPECIES ..................................................................... 6 MAPPING AND MODELING TECHNIQUES ......................................................................... 8 CHAPTER OBJECTIVES ........................................................................................................ 11 LITERATURE CITED ............................................................................................................. 13 CHAPTER 2: MEASURING MAMMALIAN SPECIES RICHNESS WITHIN TULI WILDERNESS AREA (TWA), BOTSWANA: UTILIZING CAMERA TRAP SURVEYS AND GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS) ................................................. 23 ABSTRACT: ............................................................................................................................. 23 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 24 METHODS................................................................................................................................ 27 RESULTS.................................................................................................................................. 33 DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................... 35 LITERATURE CITED ............................................................................................................. 40 CHAPTER 3: PREDICTING OCCURRENCE/OCCUPANCY FROM A COMMUNITY SURVEY OF MEDIUM TO LARGE-SIZED MAMMALS IN THE TULI GAME RESERVE OF BOTSWANA. .................................................................................................... 63 ABSTRACT: ............................................................................................................................. 63 INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 65 METHODS................................................................................................................................ 69 RESULTS.................................................................................................................................. 74 DISCUSSION ........................................................................................................................... 78 LITERATURE CITED ............................................................................................................. 84 INCLUSIVE LITERATURE CITED ......................................................................................... 112 APPENDICES ............................................................................................................................ 130 VI APPENDIX A ......................................................................................................................... 130 VII LIST OF TABLES CHAPTER 2: TABLE 2.1—SUMMARY OF STRATIFIED RANDOM HABITAT SELECTION PERCENTAGES FOR CAMERA TRAP PLACEMENT WITHIN TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA. ........................................................................................................... 48 TABLE 2.2—RESULTS OF DESCRIPTIVE STATISTICS FOR MAMMALIAN SPECIES RICHNESS WITHIN CAMERA TRAP SITES IN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA. MEAN VALUES, STANDARD DEVIATIONS (SD), AND 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVALS (C.I.) ARE GIVEN WITH EXCEPTION OF 3 REMOVED SITES (6, 12, AND 31). ........................................................................................................ 49 TABLE 2.3—MAMMALIAN SPECIES DETECTED FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEYS WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. SPECIES STATUS INFORMATION PROVIDED FROM THE INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES- LEAST CONCERN (LC), NEAR THREATENED (NT), VULNERABLE (VU), ENDANGERED (EN), CRITICALLY ENDANGERED (CR), AND NOT LISTED BY ICUN (UK). ........................................................................................................................... 57 TABLE 2. 4—MAMMALAIN SPECIES DETECTION BY INDIVIDUAL CAMERA TRAP SITES..................................................................................................................................... 59 TABLE 2.5—LIST OF MAMMALIAN SPECIES OF POSSIBLE DETECTION BASED ON SPECIES ECOLOGY AND DISTRIBUTION. SPECIES STATUS INFORMATION PROVIDED FROM THE INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES- LEAST CONCERN VIII (LC), NEAR THREATENED (NT), VULNERABLE (VU), ENDANGERED (EN), CRITICALLY ENDANGERED (CR), AND NOT LISTED BY ICUN (N/A).................... 60 CHAPTER 3: TABLE 3.1—SUMMARY OF STRATIFIED RANDOM HABITAT SELECTION PERCENTAGES FOR CAMERA TRAP PLACEMENTS WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA. ......................................................................................................... 93 TABLE 3.2—LIST OF A PRIORI MODELS WITH HYPOTHESES FOR EFFECT ON OCCURRENCE (Ψ) FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEY IN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. ................................................................................................. 94 TABLE 3.3—LIST OF A PRIORI MODELS WITH HYPOTHESES FOR EFFECT ON DETECTION PROBABILITY (P) FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEY IN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. ...................................................................... 95 TABLE 3.4—RESULTS FOR MAMMALIAN SPECIES DETECTED FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEYS WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. SPECIES STATUS INFORMATION PROVIDED FROM THE INTERNATIONAL UNION FOR CONSERVATION OF NATURAL RESOURCES RED LIST OF THREATENED SPECIES- LEAST CONCERN (LC), NEAR THREATENED (NT), VULNERABLE (VU), ENDANGERED (EN), CRITICALLY ENDANGERED (CR), AND NOT LISTED BY ICUN (UK). ........................................................................................................................... 97 TABLE 3.5—RESULTS FOR MAMMALIAN SPECIES OCCUPANCY WITHIN 95% CONFIDENCE INTERVAL, ESTIMATED PROBABILITY OF DETECTION, AND NAÏVE OCCUPANCY ESTIMATES FOR UNDER-DISPERSED SPECIES. FREQUENCIES OF INDIVIDUAL SPECIES DETECTED WITH THE NUMBER OF IX SITES DETECTED ARE DISPLAYED. DETECTED FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEYS WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. .................................. 100 TABLE 3.6—BEST FIT MODEL SELECTION OF SITE COVARIATE EFFECTS ON OCCURRENCE MODELS (Ψ) FOR AFRICAN ELEPHANT (LOXODONTA AFRICANA). ............................................................................................................................................. 103 TABLE 3.7—BEST FIT MODEL SELECTION OF SITE COVARIATE EFFECTS ON DETECTION PROBABILITY MODELS (P) FOR AFRICAN ELEPHANT (LOXODONTA AFRICANA). ........................................................................................................................ 103 TABLE 3.8—BEST FIT MODEL SELECTION OF SITE COVARIATE EFFECTS ON OCCURRENCE MODELS (Ψ) FOR AFRICAN LEOPARD (PANTHERA PARDUS). . 104 TABLE 3.9—BEST FIT MODEL SELECTION OF SITE COVARIATE EFFECTS ON DETECTION PROBABILITY MODELS (P) FOR AFRICAN LEOPARD (PANTHERA PARDUS). ............................................................................................................................ 104 TABLE 3.10—BEST FIT MODEL SELECTION OF SITE COVARIATE EFFECTS ON OCCURRENCE MODELS (Ψ) FOR BROWN HYENA (PARAHYAENA BRUNNEA). . 105 TABLE 3.11—BEST FIT MODEL SELECTION OF SITE COVARIATE EFFECTS ON DETECTION PROBABILITY MODELS (P) FOR BROWN HYENA (PARAHYAENA BRUNNEA). ......................................................................................................................... 105 TABLE 3.12—BEST FIT MODEL SELECTION OF SITE COVARIATE EFFECTS ON OCCURRENCE MODELS (Ψ) FOR SPOTTED HYENA (CROCUTA CROCUTA). ..... 106 TABLE 3.13—BEST FIT MODEL SELECTION OF SITE COVARIATE EFFECTS ON DETECTION PROBABILITY MODELS (P) FOR SPOTTED HYENA (CROCUTA CROCUTA). ......................................................................................................................... 106 X TABLE 3.14—BEST FIT MODEL SELECTION OF SITE COVARIATE EFFECTS ON OCCURRENCE MODELS (Ψ) FOR SCRUB HARE (LEPUS SAXATILIS). ................... 107 TABLE 3.15—BEST FIT MODEL SELECTION OF SITE COVARIATE EFFECTS ON DETECTION PROBABILITY MODELS (P) FOR SCRUB HARE (LEPUS SAXATILIS). ............................................................................................................................................. 107 TABLE 3.16—RESULTS FOR MAMMALIAN SPECIES MEAN LATENCY TO DETECTION (LTD) WITH ASSOCIATED STANDARD ERRORS IN PARENTHESES, TOTAL NUMBER OF SITES DETECTED AND OVERALL FREQUENCY OF DETECTION AT CAMERA SITES FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEYS WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. .......................................................... 110 XI LIST OF FIGURES CHAPTER 1: FIGURE 1.1—MAP OF THE TULI WILDERNESS STUDY AREA WITHIN THE NORTHERN TULI GAME RESERVE, BOTSWANA. ...................................................... 21 CHAPTER 2: FIGURE 2.1—MAP DESCRIPTION OF THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA (TWA), BOTSWANA......................................................................................................................... 50 FIGURE 2.2—MEAN SPECIES RICHNESS RATIO (SE) ANALYZED BY HABITAT ASSOCIATIONS FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEY IN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. ................................................................................................. 51 FIGURE 2.3—MEAN SPECIES RICHNESS RATIOS ANALYZED BY PLACEMENT OF CAMERA SITES WITHIN THREE SEPARETE FREATURES (ROADS, DRAINAGE LINES, AND OTHER AREAS) FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEY IN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. NOTATIONS OF MEAN VALUES WITH STANDARD ERRORS AND SIGNIFICANCE NOTED (ONE-WAY ANOVA, F2,33=4.208, P=0.024) WITH * FROM COMPARISON TEST. ........................................... 52 FIGURE 2.4—MAMMALIAN SPECIES RICHNESS RATIOS FOR CARNIVORES AND HERBIVORES FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEY IN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. MEAN VALUES REPRESENTED OF SPECIES RICHNESS BASED ON DIET WITH STANDARD ERRORS (SE) AND NOTED SIGNIFICANCE OF (MANN-WHITNEY RANK SUM TEST, U1,34=472.5, P=0.049) BY *. ............................. 53 FIGURE 2.5—MAP OF MAMMALIAN SPECIES RICHNESS WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS STUDY AREA WITHIN THE NORTHERN TULI GAME RESERVE, BOTSWANA, 2011............................................................................................................... 54 XII FIGURE 2.6—MAP RESULTS FROM HOT SPOT ANALYSIS INDICATING MAMMALIAN SPECIES RICHNESS HOT SPOTS WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS STUDY AREA WITHIN THE NORTHERN TULI GAME RESERVE, BOTSWANA. 2011. ...................................................................................................................................... 55 FIGURE 2.7—MAP OF RESULTS OF CLUSTER/OUTLIER ANALYSIS OF MAMMALIAN SPECIES RICHNESS WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS STUDY AREA WITHIN THE NORTHERN TULI GAME RESERVE, BOTSWANA, 2011. ............................................ 56 CHAPTER 3: FIGURE 3.1—MAP OF THE TULI WILDERNESS STUDY AREA WITHIN THE NORTHERN TULI GAME RESERVE, BOTSWANA. ...................................................... 96 FIGURE 3.2—GRAPH OF RESULTS FOR ANALYSIS OF SPECIES RICHNESS RATIOS DETECTED COMPARED TO LENGTH OF CAMERA TRAP DAYS IN OPERATION FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEY CONDUCTED WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. MEAN SPECIES WITH STANDARD ERRORS (SE) AND SIGNIFICANCE OF (KRUSKAL-WALLIS ONE-WAY MULTIPLE TEST, H2=13.073, P=0.001) NOTED BY *. ..................................................................................................... 108 FIGURE 3.3—MAMMALIAN SPECIES FREQUENCY OF DETECTION RESULT FROM CAMERA TRAP SURVEY WITHIN THE TULI WILDERNESS AREA, BOTSWANA, 2011. .................................................................................................................................... 109 XIII CHAPTER 1: INTRODUCTION AND LITERATURE REVIEW GENERAL BACKGROUND Understanding a species’ ecology and life history is now more important than ever before. As human population increases, destruction and conversion of habitat for human use increases all over the world, and understanding how animals move through and occupy their environment is extremely important. The increasing loss or modification of habitat can affect the biodiversity within an area, especially those harboring habitat specific/dependent species (Western and Maitumo 2004). Anthropomorphic influences on habitat, such as the introduction of domestic animals and crops, historically led to the extirpation of some mammalian species from their natural ranges (De Vos 1964). Agricultural practices such as clearing of forests and draining of marshlands to plant crops produce significant changes to the environment (De Vos 1964). Hackel (1999) summarized literature identifying potential factors that affect CommunityBased Conservation (CBC) within Africa such as, population growth and land-use pressures, poverty, and democratization were researched. Hackel (1999) concluded that human population growth and human encroachment near protected reserves posed threats to core wildlife areas and diversity. Donald and Evans (2006) estimated that agriculture in sub-Saharan Africa and other developing countries will increase 30% by the year 2050. Fragmentation of habitat affects species by increasing competition, predation, and susceptibility to parasites (Rodriguez-Arroyo and Dias 2009). Populations of large mammalian carnivores in North America may decline in response to these habitat disturbances, while meso-carnivore (fox, coyote) numbers can increase (Rodriguez-Arroyo and Dias 2009). 1 As habitat decreases, creating reserves to conserve and preserve mammalian species is essential. The creation of such reserves has its own set of challenges. Africa has many large reserves, but approximately 80% of the historic ranges of many large mammals reside outside protected areas (Caro 2001, Hoare 1999). Researchers have examined the effects of fragmentation and migration of species within reserve fragments (Caro 2001, Hoare 1999). Walker et al. (1987) found fencing within reserves caused fragmentation and hindered movements of species. Features such as roads, drainage lines, and dense tree rows can also be a source of fragmentation within reserves (Verboom and Van Apeldoorn 1990). Landscape characteristics within reserves can also pose challenges and create natural fragmentation (Walker et al. 1987, Verboom and Van Apeldoorn 1990).These features act as barriers to small mammal dispersal between habitat patches and can positively or negatively affect metapopulations (Verboom and Van Apeldoorn 1990). Some landscape elements, such as roads or fence rows, allow for range expansion of certain species (Verboom and Van Apeldoorn 1990). Landscape features such as these can be termed habitat corridors; portions/strips of preferred habitat which link habitat patches to facilitate movement (Bennett 1990). Corridors facilitate dispersal and allow interaction between populations that may have otherwise been isolated (Bennett 1990). They may also reduce vulnerability to stochastic events and, in the event of a local extinction, provide a means for recolonization (Bennett 1990). BOTSWANA’S NORTHERN TULI GAME RESERVE Africa provides habitat for a large diversity of unique animal species (Lombard 1995). Africa’s high rate of annual human population growth (mean of 5.2%) increases pressure to manipulate natural lands for agriculture and pasture (Kwasi Fosu and Mwabu 2010, Hackel 1999). African nature reserves have historically served as recreation destinations for enthusiasts 2 or sportsmen (Fjeldsa et al. 2004). Northern Tuli Game Reserve (NTGR) was created by various landowners with similar conservation interests (McKenzie 1990). This reserve is not recognized by Botswana’s government and is maintained by private land owners (McKenzie 1990). The reserve is located on the eastern boundary of Botswana between 21°55’S and 22°15’S and is flanked by Zimbabwe between 28°55’E and 29°15’E (McKenzie 1990, Styles and Skinner 2000, Walker et al. 1987). NTGR is bordered southerly by the Limpopo River which marks the border between Botswana and The Republic of South Africa. The eastern side of the reserve is bordered by the Shashe River, marking Botswana’s border with Zimbabwe. NTGR is approximately 3000 km2 and consists mostly of unfenced land utilized for both game reserve and agriculture (Kuhn 2012, McKenzie 1990). The reserve is contained within the central district which covers 147,730 km2 (Kuhn 2012, McKenzie 1990). Vegetation in NTGR is classified as Mopane Veld habitat (McKenzie 1990), and the mopane tree (Colophospermum mopane) remains the dominate species (Styles and Skinner 2000). This vegetation helps support many large mammalian herbivores (Kuhn 2012), such as elephants (Loxodonta africana), kudu (Tragelaphus strepsiceros), blue wildebeest (Connochaetes taurinus), and impala (Aepyceros melampus). Large carnivores include lions (Panthera leo), leopards (Panthera pardus pardus), black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas), and African wild dogs (Lycaon pictus), an endangered species (Kuhn 2012, Woodroffe and Sillero-Zubiri 2012). Private reserves such as NTGR have fewer financial and governmental constraints than public reserves and are more flexible in allocating conservation efforts protecting endangered species, serving as buffer zones between public areas, and providing local indigenous people with employment (Langholz 1996). Data on human-animal incidents are collected for each district within Botswana, and the central district is documented as having 55.3% of all 3 nationwide animal incidents (Kuhn 2012). Current human population in NTGR has been estimated at 7,954 individuals (Kuhn 2012). People live just outside the edges of the reserve and use livestock farming as a means of support. With this comes risk, as animal-human conflicts increase, including territorial defense by elephants and depredation by large carnivores (Kuhn 2012). In a recent study, Kuhn (2012) examined bone accumulations of prey at spotted hyena dens in order to monitor and quantify predation on livestock. Bones were collected over a three month period and identified to species or class using reference collections at the University of Witwatersrand. A total of 976 specimens were collected, with 69.4% identified by skeletal elements and the remaining 55.2% by species/class. Of the collected and identified specimens, fewer than 3% of remains were domestic livestock. These results indicated that spotted hyena residing within the NTGR prey mainly on wild species of impala, ostrich (Struthio camelus), and kudu (Kuhn 2012). IMPORTANCE OF MAINTAINING DIVERSITY Biological surveys are necessary in order to determine the effects of fragmentation due to anthropogenic factors. Major anthropogenic factors leading to the fragmentation or degradation of habitats include the increased demand for agriculture and mining for mineral resources (Kruess and Tscharntke 1994). Predators help regulate prey species, but as habitat connectivity is reduced or removed altogether, their ability to control prey populations is also reduced (Kruess and Tscharntke 1994). Kruess and Tscharntke (1994) studied the effects of habitat fragmentation leading to the isolation of parasitoid insects. They sampled isolated fragmented clover fields and found 8 to 12 species within larger meadows, while smaller, isolated 500 m patches contained only 1 or 2 species. They concluded that habitat isolation had negative effects on species diversity and mammalian herbivores had decreasing effects on isolated parasitoids (Kruess and 4 Tscharntke 1994). In sampling areas of fragmentation and isolation, researchers must take into account the species-area relationship: as area increases the number of new species within the area increases (Hillebrand and Blenckner 2002). Obtaining ecological information not only provides data on species’ requirements for hunting/foraging, resting, and breeding, but data are also provided on the types and quantity of habitat required to maintain species richness and protect species from endangerment (Davis and Wagner 2003). A major factor that affects mammalian species within the vast open areas of Africa is pressure from poachers. These areas are often not patrolled or are under the protection of local tribes which lack the resources to protect wildlife (Caro 1999). Game reserves have greater species richness and higher densities of mammals than non-regulated areas of Africa (Caro 1999). Despite higher diversity levels, some species within game reserve areas such as leopards, lions, bushbucks (Tragelaphus sylvaticus), and impala have declined due to hunting by tourists (Caro 1999). Caro (1999) examined mammalian densities around and within three protected reserves in Tanzania to determine the factors affecting densities. Observations of animals were conducted by traveling along pre-determined transects. Species variability and densities were significantly lower outside of reserves where legal and illegal hunting occurs (Caro 1999). Increases in fleeing behaviors have been seen by giraffes (Giraffa camelopardalis), Cape buffaloes (Syncerus caffer), zebras (Equus quagga), and reedbucks (Redunca spp.) in areas outside reserve boundaries (Caro 1999). Species richness, or α-richness, is referred to as the total number of species that occur within a given area or habitat (Orians and Groom 2006). Examining spatial and temporal trends, along with the effects of environmental stochastisity on occurrence of species helps answer questions regarding diversity change (Boulinier et al. 1998). Boulininer et al. (1998) found that 5 detectability of species and richness increased when the environment was most heterogeneous. Additionally, when heterogeneity of the study area is added into models, it increases the detectability of species inhabiting the area (Boulinier et al. 1998). There are some considerations in surveying species richness that should be taken into account. Researchers should ask three questions before surveying an area: (1) why survey or monitor, (2) what variables need to be sampled, and (3) how is the sampling or monitoring going to be conducted (Weber et al. 2004). Another consideration is the size of the area to be sampled because the number of species detected will be proportional to the size of the area (Baltanas 1992). Therefore, a larger land/habitat area will result in larger species richness (Baltanas 1992). Several factors affect species diversity in reserves or other protected areas. Large predators enhance diversity when they are not impacting prey extinction rates, allowing prey competition to exist (Shurin and Allen 2001). By reducing target prey populations, increases in predator colonization rates produce open habitat patches for new prey species to immigrate (Shurin and Allen 2001). Shurin and Allen (2001) indicated that multiple predators can promote coexistence of prey species that would normally be in competition. SURVEY METHODS FOR ELUSIVE SPECIES Mammals can be difficult to study because many are nocturnal, elusive, and have diverse life history traits. Carnivores are particularly hard to monitor because of their large home ranges and small populations (Long et al. 2011). Camera trapping is effective for investigating many mammalian species (Foresman and Pearson 1998; Khoroyzyan et al. 2008, Trolle and Kery 2003). Large carnivores can become camera shy when exposed to flash cameras (Wegge et al. 2004). Infrared camera traps in conjunction with other techniques (track plates, track counts, and 6 visual sightings) can provide more thorough species inventories (Foresman and Pearson 1998, Srbek-Araujo and Chiarello 2005, Wegge et al. 2004). Other benefits of infrared camera traps include individual photographs of animals, decreased man-power, and this method requires little training (Srbek-Araujo and Chiarello 2005). Foresman and Pearson (1998) compared the use of camera traps and track plates baited with white-tailed deer (Odocoileus virginianus), commercial lures, and chicken parts for detecting species in forested areas of Montana. Their research supported the use of camera trapping for mammalian carnivores due to greater detection abilities, more accurate species identification, and decreased required effort (Foresman and Pearson 1998). Camera trapping is an effective method in determining occupancy and abundance of carnivores (Thorn et al. 2009), and Balme et al. (2007) revealed camera trapping to be more cost effective, when compared to other methods. Researchers are not only using cameras for density estimations and occupancy, but also in observing scent marking behaviors (Marnewick et al. 2006). Camera trapping can be effective in both small and large areas. Balme et al. (2007) sampled 210 km2 of the Phinda Game Reserve in South Africa, and in order to deal with this large area, researchers divided the land into two separate zones for sampling. In areas of changing elevations, separate sampling occasions should be completed to measure species’ responses to environmental changes (Khoroyzyan et al. 2008). Suitable camera placement locations include areas on game paths, trails, and dirt roads rarely used by humans (Balme et al. 2007, Kauffman et al. 2007). Height placement of cameras to detect various species should be between 20-70 cm above the ground (Balme et al. 2007, Kelly and Holub 2008, Negroes et al. 2010). Trolle and Kery (2003) deployed active and passive cameras along game trails and corridors at a height of 20 cm. Camera sensitivity was set to take photographs in a series every 7 30 seconds once the infrared beam was triggered (Trolle and Kery 2003). Sites were baited with meat to encourage animals to remain in front of cameras so that flanking pictures could be captured for individual identification (Trolle and Kery 2003). Detecting leopards involves mounting cameras on trees or wooden posts 2-3 m from trails or paths. The use of two cameras at a site can provide a full picture for identification (Balme et al. 2007). Cameras should be set to record photos 24 hours/day with a delay interval of 20-30 seconds to increase chances of capturing photos of both flanks of the animal (Marnewick et al. 2006, Negroes et al. 2010, Trolle and Kery 2003). Cameras should be set to include recorded date and time stamps (Khoroyzyan et al. 2008), and the distance between camera trap sets of less than 2 km is effective for capturing images used to determine occupancy of large carnivores (Balme et al. 2009). Baiting camera traps with flesh of prey animals, such as deer or liquid scents of carnivores, is also effective (Foresman and Pearson 1998; Kauffman et al. 2007, Trolle and Kery 2003). MAPPING AND MODELING TECHNIQUES Theoretical modeling of occupancy, predictability, and habitat preferences has become popular among ecologists. Occupancy modeling uses data based on the detection or nondetection of species and can account for detection probability less than one (MacKenzie et al. 2002). Modeling that utilizes this approach allows for estimation of species occurrence (Ψ) and species detectability ( ̂ ). Additional covariates can include habitat characteristics, such as patch size, elevation, and climatic conditions (MacKenzie et al. 2002, 2006). Models are validated using Akaike’s Information Criterion (AIC) which sums to 1, with the best model selection having the highest value (MacKenzie et al. 2006). Finley et al. (2005) examined swift fox (Vulpes velox) occupancy rates within a Colorado prairie using methods by MacKenzie et al. 8 (2002). Detection/non-detection data were gathered by live-trapping foxes in pre-selected grids. Top models for detectability included short grass prairie alone, and other top models included density of animals and percentage of short-grass prairie within trapping grids (Finley et al. 2005) Geographic Information Systems (GIS) has developed into an essential tool for ecologists (Johnson 1990). GIS utilizes points, lines, and polygons to represent key features in the landscape and combines them to specific attribute data (e.g., species type, sex, or age) to answer hypotheses (Johnson 1990). Researchers are able to plot and store field data from Global Positioning Systems (GPS) that can be used to study the ecology of animals. Ecologists use GIS to measure one dimension of two dimensional areas (i.e. habitat patches), to analyze spatial heterogeneity and temporal change, to analyze proximity of key species, and to interpret data for use in predictability models (Johnson 1990, Pickett and White 1985). Descriptions of areas are shown geographically within a known coordinate system, which accurately places the data on the earth’s surface (Johnson 1990). Abiotic and biotic characteristics (e.g., soil types, rock formations, and species) can be expressed as a function of the features on the map (Johnson 1990). Measurements of a feature class (physical characteristic associated with data) or classes within areas are determined by using aerial photographs (Johnson 1990). The method of buffering or extracting these areas can be utilized to determine effects of land use on the condition of a habitat (Johnson 1990). Several methods have been used to map species distributions, such as percolation theory which analyzes the amount of energy an organism uses when moving across landscapes (O’Neill et al. 1988). An effective procedure for analyzing spatial data of mammalian species involves overlaying spatial data base layers of land use/land cover with separate shapefiles that contain information gathered on species movements across habitats (Johnson 1990). This method aids in 9 the evaluation of spatial and temporal changes within protected reserve areas. Osborne et al. (2001) modeled habitat use of great bustards (Otis tarda) with GIS. Point location data from observations were imported into GIS, and satellite images were edited to obtain normalized difference vegetation indices. Spatial correlations and regression analyses were included in models shown on maps (Osborne et al. 2001). Negative human impacts were found by overlaying models that indicated lower densities of bustards around roads, railways, and buildings (Osborne et al. 2001). Researchers can determine the relative importance of habitats based on overlaying species distributions upon thematic maps that depict habitat parameters, such as land cover, distance to water bodies and soils. Overlays of habitat parameters can provide insight into species habitat requirements, and weighted values, based on the importance of the habitat type, can be assigned (Johnson 1990). Additionally, by acquiring descriptions and weights of the habitat characteristics (e.g., patch size, arrangement, and distance between patches) quantity and quality of the habitat can be approximated. Ordinal modeling provides a means for estimating desired features by assigning weighted values to features within habitats in order to provide spatial descriptions of the variables (Johnson 1990). Factors such as climate, terrain, vegetative cover, and tree density should be considered when modeling vertebrate distributions on spatial and temporal scales (Mackey and Lindenmayer 2001). Jaberg and Guisan (2001) mapped bat communities not only by evaluating the above characteristics, but also by including species density, buildings, and agricultural lands. Models used elevation, presence of isolated trees, and distance to nearest water source as predictors for detecting occurrence of bat species (Jaberg and Guisan 2001). Applying a multiple disciplinary approach (camera trapping, GIS, occupancy modeling, etc.) for surveying mammalian assemblages in reserves can enhance understanding of species. 10 Utilizing camera traps for surveying large reserves provides a means to collect vast amounts of data on species presence/absence, richness/diversity, landscape use, and anthropogenic factors affecting mortality. With a growing human population and the encroachment of natural landscapes, occupancy modeling is important for habitat protection and monitoring. As concerns for habitat availability for endangered species increase, so does the need for accurate data. Gaining information for as many species as possible during a survey gives researchers a more complete look within a reserve area. This allows for better management of mammalian species and allocation of reserve resources. STUDY OBJECTIVES The first objective of this study was to examine species richness of medium to large-sized mammalian assemblages within the Tuli Wilderness Area (TWA) using camera trap surveys and to examine data using occupancy analysis. Chapter 2 identifies mammalian carnivore and herbivore species richness within the TWA. I also analyzed trophic levels of taxa to reveal differences between carnivores and herbivores. I used GIS in order to identify hot and cold spots of richness. The last objective for chapter 2 was to examine camera placement in habitat types and among natural/anthropogenic features for optimum placement. My goal was to adequately describe the mammalian assemblages in order to provide updated information of mammalian species for wildlife managers. Chapter 3 focuses on the use of camera trapping data to define occupancy for the mammalian assemblages within the TWA. Detection/non-detection histories were used to estimate occupancy and detection probabilities for species detected in the TWA. I used covariate models of occupancy and probability to determine factors that affect monitoring for the 11 following species: brown hyenas (Parahyaena brunnea), spotted hyenas (Crocuta crocuta), African leopards, scrub hares (Lepus saxatilis), and African elephants. In examining species richness at sites compared with the time interval use for each camera at each site, I was able to provide support for shorter sampling periods for species monitoring at sites within reserves with similar characteristics. 12 LITERATURE CITED BALME, G., L. HUNTER, AND R. SLOTOW. 2007. Feeding habitat selection by hunting leopards Panthera pardus in a woodland savanna: prey catchability versus abundance. Animal Behaviour 74:589-598. BALME, G. A., L. T. B. HUNTER, AND R. SLOTOW. 2009. Evaluating methods for counting cryptic carnivores. Journal of Wildlife Management 73(3):433-441. 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The influence of large mammalian herbivores on growth form and utilization of mopane trees, Colophosperum mopane, in Botswana’s Northern Tuli Game Reserve. African Journal of Ecology 38:95-101. THORN, M., D. M. SCOTT, M. GREEN, P. W. BATEMAN, AND E. Z. CAMERON. 2009. Estimating brown hyena occupancy using baited camera traps. South Africa Journal of Wildlife Research 39(1):1-10. TROLLE M. AND M. KERY. 2003. Estimation of ocelot density in the pantanal using capture- recapture analysis of camera-trapping data. Journal of Mammalogy 84(2):607-614. 19 VERBOOM, B. AND R. VAN APELDOORN. 1990. Effects of habitat fragmentation on the red squirrel, Sciurus vulgaris L. Landscape Ecology 4:171-176. WALKER, B. H., R. H. EMSLIE, R. N. OWEN-SMITH, AND R. J. SCHOLES. 1987. To cull or not to cull: lessons from a Southern African drought. Journal of Applied Ecology 24(2):381-401. WEBER, D., U. HINTERMANN, AND A. ZANGGER. 2004. 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Downloaded on 06 November 2012. 20 Figure 1.1—Map of The Tuli Wilderness Study Area within the Northern Tuli Game Reserve, Botswana. 21 Chapters 2 and 3 are written in the format set forth and accepted by the Journal of Mammalogy 22 CHAPTER 2: MEASURING MAMMALIAN SPECIES RICHNESS WITHIN TULI WILDERNESS AREA (TWA), BOTSWANA: UTILIZING CAMERA TRAP SURVEYS AND GEOGRAPHICAL INFORMATION SYSTEM (GIS) ABSTRACT: Surveying mammalian communities for species richness is enhanced by utilizing camera traps as a sampling tool. I conducted a survey of mammals within The Tuli Wilderness Area (TWA) located within The Northern Tuli Game Reserve (NTGR) of Botswana. In the 34 day sampling period, I had a total of 248 trap nights at 36 individual sites within the reserve. I surveyed 38 of the expected 53 mammal species resulting in a 71% success rate. A total of 18 mammalian families and 9 sub-families were detected. Several questions were addressed regarding species richness such as, how it is affected by habitat type, and how carnivore and herbivore richness differs within the TWA. Species richness varied greatly between individual camera sites. Using ArcGIS, I determined that 2 of the 36 sites were found to be hot spots and 2 of the 36 sites were cold spots of mammalian species richness. There were no differences in species richness among the three main habitat types (mopane, forest/scrub, or riverine). When compared to other camera trap locations, such as drainage lines, I determined that placement of camera traps along roads or trails increased detection of mammal species. Carnivore and herbivore species richness differed significantly within the TWA, with greater carnivore species richness. Species of ecological concern, such as the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus), African leopard (Panthera pardus), and African lion (Panthera leo) were found at camera sites, indicating that baited camera trap research can be a valuable tool in monitoring species of concern within African reserves. Key Words: Species richness, camera trapping, medium and large sized mammals, carnivore, herbivore. 23 INTRODUCTION Studies conducted to assess community assemblages and the health of ecological areas typically utilize species richness and diversity data (Boulinier et al. 1998). Concerns have arisen in the last decade regarding a decline in mammalian species richness (Ceballos et al. 1998, Woodroffe 2000). Species richness within an area depicts the total number of species which are present at a given time (Ceballos et al. 1998, Woodroffe 2000). Anthropogenic impacts result in decreased mammalian species richness, especially of large carnivores (Woodroffe 2000). Human population increases adversely affect mammalian populations due to human/animal conflicts, poaching, and encroachment into wilderness areas (Hayward et al. 2005). Surveys within Africa have focused on determining mammalian species richness and diversity in areas where data are inaccurate or nonexistent (Hayward et al. 2005). Stochastic events and habitat fragmentation have been implicated in the local extirpation of carnivores outside of protected areas. The effects of fragmentation can be examined by reviewing species presence or absence data, protected area size based on geographic ranges, and carnivore extinction rates. Wide-ranging carnivores such as the African wild dog (Lycaon pictus), African lion (Panthera leo), African leopard (Panthera pardus pardus), and spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta) are at greater risk of extinction than species with smaller home ranges. Examining ranging behavior has indicated increases in mortality of carnivores as human populations expand into carnivore home ranges (Woodroffe and Ginsberg 1998). Mammalian diversity can be affected by herbivorous populations, where mammalian herbivores can negatively influence other organisms within the community. Herbivores can affect plant diversity by over grazing if wild populations are not monitored (Bakker et al. 2006). 24 Conversely, large herbivores can increase plant diversity by spreading native seed. Large native herbivores are affected by poaching, predation by carnivores, and habitat loss. Surveying herbivore diversity is necessary in order to create more appropriate management action plans (Bakker et al. 2006). Patterns of status change for mammalian species, including biodiversity changes, extinction, extirpation, and endangered status in certain areas, have been attributed to lack of consistent and accurate data (Ceballos and Brown 1995, Mills et al. 1993). Surveying mammalian species diversity provides a means to observe effects caused by removal of large keystone predators such as the African leopard, which has a varied catholic diet, and is considered a carnivore generalist (Hayward et al. 2006). Maintaining a healthy and diverse population of large herbivores is important for maintaining community structure (Mills et al.1993). Keystone modifiers are species that affect habitat features without directly affecting trophic levels of other species inhabiting a certain area. In veld (African grasslands) reserves and protected areas within Africa, keystone herbivores are essential for maintaining vegetative communities. Keystone herbivores can modify habitat (Mills et al. 1993) and cause a community shift from dense woodland thickets to open veld (Augustine and McNaughton 1998, Van de Kopple and Prins 1998). African elephants have been blamed for large amounts of habitat destruction within Africa, and have been known to cause plant community shifts and effects on carnivores (Van de Koppel and Prins 1998). Surveying carnivore diversity can be difficult due to their rare and elusive nature (Balme et al. 2007, Bowkett et al. 2006, Kauffman et al. 2007). Camera trapping is a valuable tool for surveying large carnivores (Jackson et al. 2005). This method of examining mammalian assemblages gives insight into species richness, territorial behaviors, population density, habitat selection, and estimation of occupancy rates (Kelly and Holub 2008, Marnewick et al. 2006, 25 Negroes et al. 2010, Rowcliffe and Carbone 2008, Thorn et al. 2009). Utilizing remotely placed infrared camera traps enhances temporal and spatial sampling of species, and provides a permanent record of species within specific areas (Kays and Slauson 2008). Moruzzi et al. (2002) examined species-specific habitat relationships within a mammalian community in order to determine forest habitat preferences. By utilizing camera trap data researchers were able to estimate species distributions for species, such as bobcats (Lynx rufus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). Additionally, their results indicate a reduction of the length of time for camera sets from 21 to 15 days would still yield a 90% capture rate (Moruzzi et al. 2002). Infrared camera trapping provides more precise identification of large mammals (Lyra-Jorge and Ciocheti 2008). Camera traps have been enhanced to detect extremely rare mammalian carnivores within sites by utilizing baits or lures placed along roads and game trails and knowledge from skilled trackers (Karanth et al. 2010, Rowcliffe and Carbone 2008). Placing cameras in greater frequency within areas in shorter sampling periods can be effective in increasing sample sizes for analysis (Moruzzi et al. 2002). Identification of travel corridors allows researchers to determine preferred areas in which to place cameras (Karanth et al. 2010). The first objective of my study was to determine medium and large-sized mammalian carnivore and herbivore species richness within the Tuli Wilderness Area (TWA). Another factor I examined was the mammalian species of ecological concern within my study area. My second objective was to evaluate the carnivore/herbivore species richness. The third objective was to examine camera placement and duration of survey to establish optimum placement and timing for greater species detection. Lastly, I sought to determine which areas were hot/cold spots of detection. My goal was to be able to adequately describe mammalian assemblages in order to provide updated information to managers. 26 METHODS Study Area I conducted a survey of mammals within The Tuli Wilderness Area (TWA) located within The Northern Tuli Game Reserve (NTGR) of Botswana (Fig. 2.1). The Northern Tuli Game Reserve was created by various landowners with similar conservation interests; this reserve is not recognized by Botswana’s government, but is maintained by private land owners (McKenzie 1990). The reserve is located on the eastern boundary of Botswana between 21°55’S and 22°15’S and flanked by Zimbabwe between 28°55’E and 29°15’E (McKenzie 1990, Styles and Skinner 2000, Walker et al. 1987). NTGR is bordered southerly by The Republic of South Africa and the Limpopo River. The eastern boundary is with Zimbabwe and the Shashe River. The Tuli block is approximately 3000 km2 of mostly unfenced land with a mixture of agricultural land, and is it situated in the central district which covers 147,730 km2 (Kuhn 2012, McKenzie 1990). Vegetation in NTGR is classified as Mopane veld (McKenzie 1990), and mopane (Colophospermum mopane) the dominant vegetative species (Styles and Skinner 2000). NTGR has an extensive system of drainage lines running throughout the reserve (McKenzie 1990). Camera sites were located within The Tuli Wilderness Area (TWA) which consists of approximately 4500-5000 hectares (Fig. 2.1) of Mopane veld with a mixture of forested and rocky koppie habitats (McKenzie 1990). TWA lacks fences and thus provides animals freedom of movement between other farms, with the exception of a northern fence line that separates villages from the reserve (Selier 2007). Similar to NTGR, TWA maintains meandering rivers and drainage lines throughout the area. Drainage lines and river areas provide riverine habitat during wet seasons, and during dry seasons animals utilize this habitat as corridors. 27 Camera Trapping I conducted camera trap surveys from 12 May to 13 June 2011. Camera traps were used to survey medium and large sized mammals. Medium sized species were those with a weight of 2.0-20 kg and large species were ones < 20 kg. A total of 15 camera traps was employed throughout TWA based on a stratified randomized design (Table 2.1), and 39 individual sites were randomly chosen within a 500 x 500 m grid square based on information from skilled trackers, accessibility, and low risk of harm to researchers by wildlife (Karanth et al. 2010). All camera stations consisted of one remotely triggered infrared camera trap (Reconyx HyperFire HC500 or Primos TRUTH CAM60). Camera sites were set along roads, drainage lines, or other areas (open areas or water holes) at distances of 300 m to 500 m apart (Kays and Slauson 2008, Negroes et al. 2010). Each was set at a height of 0 to 0.5 m, attached to trees with nylon straps, and positioned at optimum angles for sensor detection of multiple species. Angles were determined by utilizing test photos which captured the whole study site clearly and without obstruction. Camera sensor sensitivity was set to medium to reduce triggering by wind and moving vegetation. The number of photographs taken per detection was set to five with a five second delay between photo series. Once placed, reinforced cable locks were used to prevent damage or theft of cameras (Kays and Slauson 2008). To enhance detection of multiple species, sites were baited (Kauffman et al. 2007, Thorn et al. 2009) using impala (Aepyceros melampus) harvested by the land manager of the TWA in accordance with pre-allocated allowances for research and local subsistence. Bait was placed in front of cameras, no more than 16 m away, and consisted of various muscles from hind and forelimbs along with entrails. The length of surveys ranged from 6 to 34 days; cameras were moved to increase the number of sites surveyed (Kays and Slauson 2008). Cameras were checked daily or weekly. 28 At the end of the 34 day survey period, photographs were arranged by individual site locations. Sites 6, 12, and 31 were removed due to camera trap malfunction or disturbance by wildlife. As a result of removing these three sites, all analyses were calculated using the remaining 36 sites. Photographs were examined to identify individual species detected using “Walker’s Mammals of the World” text (Nowak 1999) and arranged by taxon (Table 2.3). Data at each site were examined and species lists were compiled for each camera location (Table 2.4). The total number of species was calculated for each camera site, and the status of concern and population for each species was determined using The International Union for Conservation of Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List for threatened or endangered species (IUCN 2012). I followed guidelines set forth by the American Society of Mammalogists for the care and ethical use of mammals (Sikes et al. 2011). All methods and protocols were approved by the University of Central Missouri Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee on 13 May 2011 (IACUC-Approved Permit No. 11-3217). Statistical Analysis All species richness analyses were performed using statistical software SigmaPlot version 12.0 (Systat Software, San Jose, CA). I sought to determine mammalian species richness within the TWA and among different camera trap sites. Descriptive statistics (mean, standard deviation, and 95% confidence intervals) were used to describe species richness at camera sites within TWA. Data for all statistical tests were converted from discrete to continuous by converting data into ratios by dividing observed richness by the total number of expected inhabitants based on geographic distribution. All assumptions of normality, homosedasticity, and independence were assessed. Assumptions of normality were tested using the Shapiro-Wilk normality test. 29 I also tested whether there was a difference in carnivore and herbivore species richness within TWA. Data were configured by carnivore/herbivore richness ratios for sites and compiled for all sites into the two categories. Mann-Whitney Rank Sum tests were used to evaluate differences between carnivore and herbivore species richness. This non-parametric test was used because data did not meet the assumption of normality. The null hypothesis for this test was Ho: There are no differences between carnivore and herbivore species richness within TWA. My third question for analysis was whether species richness values were greater along roads, drainage lines, or other areas. In order to determine differences among species richness within placement categories an ANOVA was used, ratios of richness for each camera site was placed into one of three categories: roads, drainage line, and other areas. I used a one-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) with a Tukey Multiple Comparison Test to determine if differences existed in species ratios among the three categories. All assumptions of normality, independence, and equal variances were met. The null hypothesis for this was: Ho: There are no differences in the species richness at camera trap sites among placement categories of roads, drainage lines, or other areas. For all other remaining statistical analyses, nonparametric tests were used because data did not meet required assumptions of normality. I also examined whether species richness within different habitat types varied among mopane vegetation, forest/scrub, and riverine habitats. Species richness ratios for camera sites were organized by habitat category for analysis. A Kruskal-Wallis one-way analysis of variance on ranks, a nonparametric alternative to the standard ANOVA, was used to compare species richness between habitat types. My null hypothesis was Ho: There is no difference in the amount of species richness between the three habitat types of mopane vegetation, forest/scrub, and riverine habitat. 30 Spatial Analysis I used ArcGIS Desktop v10.0 (ESRI – Redlands, California) to determine if and where hot/cold spots of mammalian species richness occurred within TWA. Maps were created for species richness based on camera site locations. I performed a hotspot analysis to identify clustering of mammalian species richness, which calculates a Getis Ord Gi* (* represents pronunciation for star, G-i-star) statistic for each individual feature (site) within a user-specified distance to indicate clustering of high/low values (Chang 2012). A feature needs to be statistically significant and must have a high value surrounded by other high values to be considered a hot spot. Where in the equation xj is the site value of j site and wij is the spatial weight assigned between i and j (Fig. 2.1a), and represents the total number features or sites. Getis-Ord Gi* Statistic Equation. ̅ ∑ ∑ √[ ∑ (∑ )] Individual features, while taking into account neighboring features, are assigned a z-score and pvalue as a result of the statistic. I set the user specified distance to within 500 m of set grids, as site selection was based on 500 m grid squares. I based final determination of significance on zscore and p-values. Assessment of significance of the p-value was adjusted and set to α=0.1 for both spatial analysis functions as most were slightly above 0.05 (Stapp 2007). Alpha was adjusted because I believe there is ecological significance between 0.05 – 0.1 within TWA. Significant z-values that were positive indicated a hot spot. If the z-score was larger, this 31 indicated a more intense clustering (more intense hot spot). Negative z-values that are deemed significant on the other hand indicate a cold spot (Chang 2012). Cluster and outlier analyses determined areas with a cluster of high (HH), low (LL), high surrounded by low amounts (HL), or outlier low richness values surrounded by higher richness values (LH). This method identified features which were spatial outliers exercising the Anselin Local Moran’s I statistic (Change 2012). Where xi represents an attribute for a feature (site) i and ̅ is the mean value of attributes. Spatial weight wij describes the spatial weight between features i and j. Anselin Local Moran’s I statistic equation. ̅ ∑ ( ̅) Outputs for representation of individual features consist of a z-score, p-value, and I-value. Features having a positive I value indicate that a feature has neighbors with similar high or low values. Sites with negative values and neighbors having dissimilar values indicate outlier sites. I also assessed results for this test using the output field cluster/outlier types high surrounded by high values (HH – hot spot), low surrounded by low values (LL – cold spot), high surrounded by low amounts (HL – hot spot), or outlier low richness values surrounded by higher richness values (LH – cold spot). Research design and implementation was conducted using guidelines set forth by the American Society of Mammalogists (Sikes et al. 2011). All methods and protocols were approved by the University of Central Missouri Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee on 13 May 2011 (IACUC-Approved Permit No. 11-3217). 32 RESULTS Camera Trapping Survey of Species Richness In the 34 day sampling period, I had a total of 248 trap nights at 36 separate sites. Camera traps yielded over 50,000 photographs of mammalian carnivores, herbivores, omnivores, folivores, and insectivores (Table 2.3). I found 38 of the 53 total species (71%) expected to exist within the study area based on previous studies (Table 2.5). I detected 9 different mammalian orders: Carnivora, Artiodactyla, Rodentia, Probocidea, Perissodactyla, Hyracoidea, Primates, Lagomorpha, and Tubulidentata (Table 2.3). Within the orders, a total of 18 mammalian families and 9 separate sub-families were observed. Not all species were detected at all sites and richness ranged from 1-19, with sites 11 and 19 containing the highest species richness (Table 2.2, Fig. 2.5). Species richness varied among individual sites (Fig. 2.5). Camera sites 1, 11, 19, and 21 had species richness greater than 15 species (Table 2.2). Effects of Diet on Species Detection and Camera Placement (mopane, forest/scrub, or riverine habitat) A total of 36 individual survey sites were analyzed for photographic detection of species (Table 2.2). Differences in herbivore and carnivore species richness were determined. In this analysis, folivores were treated as herbivores, and insectivores and omnivores were placed with carnivores. A record of 21 carnivores and 17 herbivores was observed, and I determined that carnivore and herbivore richness differed significantly (Mann-Whitney Rank sum test, U1,34=472.5, P=0.049). Carnivore species richness was greater within the TWA during camera trap surveys (Fig. 2.4). 33 Results indicated that species richness did not differ significantly between mopane, forest/scrub, or riverine habitat types (Kruskal-Wallis one-way multiple test, H2=2.771, P=0.250, Fig. 2.2). Camera success was not dependent upon placement within the defined habitats. Richness was significantly different among camera sites placed on roads, drainage lines, and along other areas (one-way ANOVA, F2,33=4.208, P=0.024, Fig. 2.3). Species richness between roads and other areas was not significantly different (Tukey test, q=2.659, P=0.161), nor were other areas compared to drainage lines (Tukey test, q=1.549, P=0.524). Significant differences were found between placement on roads and drainage lines (Fig. 2.3, Tukey test, q=3.969, P=0.022). Roads were found to have higher richness than both drainage lines and other areas (Fig. 2.3). This indicates that placement of camera traps along roads or features similar to roads increased detection of mammalian species richness. GIS Hotspot Analysis I included 36 camera trap sites to spatially analyze species richness hot or cold spots within the TWA. Sites 11 and 19 were determined to be hot spots (Fig. 2.6). The highest species richness was detected at site 19 (Table 2.2, Fig.2.5), and this site also had a slightly higher zscore value than site 11 (Getis-Ord test, Z=2.23, P=0.02, Fig. 2.6). Site 11 had the second highest species richness detected (Table 2.2, Fig. 2.5) and was also determined to be a mammalian richness hot spot (Getis-Ord test, Z=2.00, P=0.04, Fig. 2.6). Cluster and outlier analysis showed some similarities to the hot spot analysis. This also identified site 11 as a hot spot for species richness and identified sites surrounding it as having lower richness (Anselin Local Moran’s I, Z=2.97, P=0.002). Two sites within the TWA were identified as cold spots for species richness (Fig. 2.7). Site 25 was found to be the coldest area 34 (Anselin Local Moran’s I, Z=-2.12, P=0.03) with the second lowest average species richness per day, but site 25 was surrounded by sites with higher species richness detection ( ̅ =0.79 SD=0.80, Table 2.2, Fig. 2.7). Site 7 was also identified as a cold spot which had a higher number of species richness per day than 13 other sites ( ̅ =1.80, SD=0.84, Table 2.2) DISCUSSION In my survey of mammalian assemblages within the Tuli Wilderness Area (reserve), baited camera traps were successful in capturing photographic data over 248 camera trap nights, and detected 38 of the 53 mammalian species believed to be distributed in southeastern Botswana (Nowak 1999). This shows that 71% of the medium to large sized mammals described to be distributed in southeastern Botswana can be found in the TWA, showing the area to be rich in mammalian diversity. Determining species richness in the TWA provides insight for conservation planning and helps determine possible influencing factors affecting presence or absence of certain species. A variety of carnivores and herbivores were photographed throughout the survey. Carnivore species richness was greater than that of herbivore richness during camera trapping. Abundance was not examined in my study, as it was not a component of the overall objective. Baiting camera site may account for a slight increase in carnivores, but herbivores did not indicate a negative response to carrion odors at sites. Results from my research of mammalian species richness provide a representation of large species (African lion, leopard, elephant, and hyenas) to medium sized species (scrub hare (Lepus saxatilis), Smith’s bush squirrel (Paraxerus cepapi), and slender mongoose (Galerella sanguinea). Mesopredators serve key roles in many communities (Roemer et al. 2009). The 35 medium-sized carnivores within TWA included black-backed jackals (Canis mesomelas), African wildcats (Felis silvestris lybica), bat-eared foxes (Otcyon megalotis), and whitetailed mongoose (Ichneumia albicauda) detected at sites (Table 2.4). At least one mesopredator was observed at all camera trap sites (Fig. 2.4). Mesopredator monitoring is important for monitoring the African wild dog populations. I was able to observe a pack of wild dogs within the TWA at site 11 where species richness was 18. Observing wild dogs at a site that indicates many other carnivores may warrant further investigation, as mesocarnivores are known to be reservoirs for diseases like parvo, rabies, and canine distemper which threaten recovery efforts (Roemer et al. 2009). Van de Bildt et al. (2002) examined the effects of distemper on the conservation of wild dogs in a captive breeding program within the Mkomazi Game Reserve (MGR). During breeding, wild dogs became infected with the disease and the virus was traced to strains from domestic dogs (Canis familiaris), bat-eared foxes, and lions. Detection of species other than carnivores was successful during the 248 trap nights such as browsing herbivore species in particular, the impala (Aepyceros melampus) was detected at 75% of camera sites (Table 2.3). This species is commonly observed throughout Africa, but if populations are not managed carefully they can affect acacia seedling reestablishment (Prins and Van Der Jeugd 1993). The presence of this species should not have a negative effect on the vegetation in the TWA because of the dominance of Mopane veld. Styles and Skinner (2000) found that within the NTGR, large browsing species were responsible for increases in mopane scrub vegetation, and their browsing stimulated buds to produce early leaves. Large browsing species aid in vegetative processes within the African reserves. 36 Maintaining reserves with minimal fragmentation is essential to maintaining species diversity and reducing risk of extinction (Burkey 1989). The TWA reduces these effects by eliminating anthropogenic barriers and allowing animals to move naturally (McKenzie 1990). With movement of animals comes risk of predation by illegal hunters for bushmeat, ivory, and pelage. This risk is a reality in TWA as snare traps were found and removed during our survey. Site 3 camera traps identified a poacher in areas where African elephant, kudu, and brown/spotted hyena were observed. Caro (2008) observed declines of large mammal populations in western Tanzania and indicated that a major cause was illegal hunting. Species richness surveys can help detect and prosecute poachers (Caro 2008). Gelderblom et al. (1995) determined that the southern half of Africa’s grasslands had the highest richness of carnivores. I showed that carnivores had the highest amount of species richness (16), including the African leopard, African lion, brown hyena, and spotted hyena. Other species in the area included the Caracal (Caracal caracal) and white-tailed mongoose (Ichneumia albicauda). Kelly and Holub (2008) found camera traps to be successful in detecting mammalian species within several habitat types in Giles County, Virginia. Results of our study found camera trap effort along roads have the greatest detection (Fig. 2.3), and Kelly and Holub (2008) found that felid and canid trap success increased when traps were located closer to roads. Trolle and Kery (2003) found 96% of captures of carnivores were along roadways. Placement of cameras, together with baiting of sites, increased detection of species within the TWA and coincides with their findings. Another contributing factor to increasing the overall detection of mammalian species in the TWA involved bating trap sites. Numerous studies indicated that baiting of camera sites increased trap success of carnivores (Foresman and 37 Pearson 1998, Kelly and Holub 2008, Trolle and Kery 2003). Thus, baited camera traps placed near roads can increase detection of mammalian species for surveying/monitoring. Hot spots of mammalian species richness were found using GIS hot spot analysis at sites 11 and 19 (Fig. 2.6). Within site 11, I observed 18 species such as Cape porcupine (Hystrix africaeaustralis), African leopard, and common eland (Table 2.4). Observing endangered species such as the African wild dog at this hot spot of species richness indicates these areas as having increased ability to monitor species of concern. Sites 14, 15, 19, and 28 had high species richness and appear to be corridors between habitat patches that naturally funnel species along ridges, koppies, or dirt roads intersecting multiple game trails. My results are similar to those of Haddad et al. (2003), where photographic data and hot spot analysis indicated multiple species using corridors for movement between habitat patches. These sites are of importance for species monitoring because they are on roads which have high rates of detection and are hot spots for species richness. Tewksbury et al. (2002) suggested that corridors can affect patch use within areas by diverting species into connected habitat patches. My results were not different from this hypothesis, as animals within TWA used sites identified as hot spots as selected natural corridors. Analysis of species cold spots indicated that camera trap sites 7 and 25 were areas where few mammalian species were detected. Lack of species detection in these areas could possibly be explained by a lack of sufficient cover or susceptibility to predatory ambush. Utilizing GIS, I was able to determine hot spot areas within the TWA which identified areas where species of critically endangered (African wild dog), near threatened (African leopard), or vulnerable (African lion) levels were detected. The approach of using hot spot, cluster, and outlier analysis together provides a means within the TWA to accurately determine areas to 38 maximize surveys. Areas identified as hot spots were consistent with feeding habits of African leopards (Hayward et al. 2005). These hot spots are characteristically high quality habitat for prey species and give leopards advantageous hunting areas. In these areas, denser patches of habitat provided leopards camouflage in order to ambush prey. Ungulate species such as the impala, common duiker, and bushbuck were species surveyed at sites that were indicated by Hayward et al. (2005) as preferred prey of large felids. Prey preferences of wild dogs are similar to those of the leopards, and both sites 11 and 19 illustrate areas preferred by wild dogs and leopards where increased competition for prey between carnivore species will occur (Hayward et al. 2006). Using such tools as baited camera traps along road-type paths, species surveys can continue within TWA and be expanded into other areas of the NTGR to help monitor species richness. Surveys could focus on habitat use throughout different times of the year. Creation of an electronic database would help organize and track photographic data of mammalian species. 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Habitat Type Percent Cover (%) Number of Camera placements Riverine 15 3 Acacia woodland 65 10 Shrub-lands 20 3 Total 100 16 48 Table 2.2—Results of descriptive statistics for mammalian species richness within camera trap sites in The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana. Mean values, standard deviations (SD), and 95% confidence intervals (C.I.) are given with exception of 3 removed sites (6, 12, and 31). Site Site Name Total Species richness within site Mean richness per day SD 95% CI value 15 4 9 9 14 6 1 25 9 1 68 1 17 15 9 15 1 9 10 15 10 11 13 5 8 8 1 70 4 1 18 2 4 1 14 84 7 5.00 1.80 3.75 3.00 5.09 1.80 1.86 1.29 1.83 4.25 1.00 1.80 4.58 2.00 2.00 3.18 4.13 1.73 3.18 1.50 2.16 4.60 0.79 1.50 1.55 1.64 1.00 1.63 2.00 2.70 0.70 0.64 2.91 3.09 2.50 1.11 2.39 1.30 2.22 0.93 1.88 0.84 1.20 1.11 0.75 1.55 1.00 1.32 1.68 2.45 1.23 1.33 1.50 1.16 1.70 0.91 1.39 1.95 0.80 1.41 1.57 0.81 0.71 1.19 1.41 1.34 0.48 0.67 1.38 1.58 1.38 0.78 2.00 1.62 3.53 0.77 0.81 1.04 0.54 1.03 0.79 0.56 1.71 0.62 0.81 0.97 0.94 0.69 0.80 0.64 0.88 0.58 0.67 2.42 0.46 1.18 1.06 0.54 0.54 0.99 0.95 0.96 0.35 0.45 0.92 1.06 1.45 0.60 1 Elephant Pans 2 Malema Cultline 3 Leopard Loppies 4 Bed Rock 5 Eagle Entrance 7 Eagle Rock Funnel near bushman 8 Northern Eagle 9 Red Plains 10 Lonely Road 11 Elephant Neck 13 Pels Pools 14 Leopard Road Drainage Line 15 Serolo Pool Water Hole 16 River Road East 17 Cross Plain Cross Road 18 Leopard Rock West 19 Fairfield Cultine South 20 Meadow Meander 21 Molema Mall 22 Lonely Hill 23 Ridgeback 24 Sesame Street 25 Mohave River East 26 Wildebeest Wonder 27 Cross Plains Plains 28 Cross Plains Molema Cutline 29 10P Drainage Line 30 Three Trees 32 Boebean Crossing 33 Great Wall of Tuli NE 34 Grain Pits Leopard Road 35 Lonely Road Drainage Line 36 Boom Gate 37 Sycamore Fig Crossroad 38 Cross Plains Copse 39 Mohave Highway 49 Figure 2.1—Map description of the Tuli Wilderness Area (TWA), Botswana. 50 Figure 2.2—Mean species richness ratio (± SE) analyzed by habitat associations from camera trap survey in The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. 51 Figure 2.3—Mean species richness ratios analyzed by placement of camera sites within three separete freatures (roads, drainage lines, and other areas) from camera trap survey in The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. Notations of mean values with standard errors (± SE) and significance noted (one-way ANOVA, F2,33=4.208, P=0.024) with * from comparison test. 52 Figure 2.4—Mammalian species richness ratios for carnivores and herbivores from camera trap survey in The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. Mean values represented of species richness based on diet with standard errors (± SE) and noted significance of (MannWhitney Rank sum test, U1,34=472.5, P=0.049) by *. 53 Figure 2.5—Map of mammalian species richness within The Tuli Wilderness Study Area within the Northern Tuli Game Reserve, Botswana, 2011. 54 Figure 2.6—Map results from hot spot analysis indicating mammalian species richness hot spots within The Tuli Wilderness Study Area within the Northern Tuli Game Reserve, Botswana. 2011. 55 Figure 2.7—Map of results of cluster/outlier analysis of mammalian species richness within The Tuli Wilderness Study Area within the Northern Tuli Game Reserve, Botswana, 2011. 56 Table 2.3—Mammalian species detected from camera trap surveys within The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. Species status information provided from The International Union for Conservation of Natural Resources Red List of Threatened Species- least concern (LC), near threatened (NT), vulnerable (VU), endangered (EN), critically endangered (CR), and not listed by ICUN (UK). Order Carnivora Number of sites detected Status Population Status (ICUN) Common Name Species Name Diet Aardwolf African Civet African Leopard African Lion African Wild dog African Wildcat Banded Mongoose Bat-eared Fox Black-Backed Jackal Brown Hyena Caracal Honey Badger Large-Spotted Genet Slender Mongoose Spotted Hyena White-tailed Mongoose Proteles cristatus Civetticis civetta Panthera pardus pardus Panthera leo Lycaon pictus Felis silvestris lybica Mungos mungo Otcyon megalotis Canis mesomelas Parahyaena brunnea Caracal caracal Mellivora capensis Genetta maculataenet Galerella flavescenson Crocuta crocuta Ichneumia albicauda Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore 1 14 13 3 1 9 5 4 22 32 1 4 9 10 13 1 LC LC NT VU EN UK LC LC LC UK LC LC LC LC UK LC Stable Unknown Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Unknown Stable Unknown Stable Unknown Unknown Decreasing Unknown Stable Unknown Stable Blue Wildebeest Bushbuck Bushpig Common Duiker Common Eland Common Warthog Giraffe Greater Kudu Impala Connochaetes taurinus Tragelas scriptus Potamochoerus larvatus Sylvicapra grimmia Tragelaphus oryx Phacochoerus africanus Giraffa camelepardalis Tragelaphus strepsiceros Aepyceros melampus Herbivore Herbivore Omnivore Herbivore Herbivore Omnivore Herbivore Herbivore Herbivore 11 4 6 6 12 24 2 21 27 LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Decreasing Stable Stable Artiodactyla 57 Table 2.3—Continued Order Artiodactyla Number of sites detected Status Population Status (ICUN) Common Name Species Name Diet Klipspringer Steenbok Waterbuck Orertragus oreotragus Raphicerus campestris Kobus ellipsiprymnus Herbivore Herbivore Herbivore 2 8 4 LC LC LC Stable Stable Decreasing Cape Porcupine Smiths Brush Squirrel Spring Hare Hystrix africaeaustralis Paraxerus cepapi Pedetes capensis Herbivore Herbivore Herbivore 8 2 5 LC UK LC Stable Unknown Unknown African Elephant Loxodonta africana Herbivore 21 VU Increasing Plains Zebra Equus quagga Herbivore 14 LC Stable Rock Hyrax Procavia capensis Herbivore 2 LC Unknown Chacma Baboon Vervet monkey Papio hamadryas ursinus Chlorocebus pygerythrus Omnivore Omnivore 9 2 LC LC Stable Stable Scrub Hare Lepus saxatilis Folivore 12 LC Decreasing Aardvark Orycteropus afer Insectivore 4 UK Unknown Rodentia Proboscidea Perissodactyla Hyracoidea Primates Lagomorpha Tubulidentata 58 Table 2. 4—Mammalian Species Detection by individual Camera Trap Sites. Camera Sites Species Common Name 1 Aepyceros melampus Impala x Canis mesomelas Black-Backed Jackal x Caracal caracal Caracal Chlorocebus pygerythrus Vervet monkey Civetticis civetta African civet x Connochaetes taurinus Blue Wildebeest x Crocuta crocuta Spotted Hyena x Equus quagga Plains Zebra x Felis silvestris lybica African Wildcat Galerella flavescenson Slender Mongoose Genetta maculataenet Large-Spotted Genet Giraffa camelepardalis Giraffe Hystrix africaeaustralis Cape Porcupine - Ichneumia albicauda White-tailed Mongoose - Kobus ellipsiprymnus Waterbuck - Lepus saxatilis Scrub Hare x Loxodonta africana African Elephant x Mellivora capensis Honey Badger Mungos mungo Banded Mongoose Otcyon megalotis Bat-eared Fox - Orertragus oreotragus Klipspringer - Orycteropus afer Aardvark - Panthera leo African lion Panthera pardus pardus African leopard Papio hamadryas ursinus Chacma Baboon Parahyaena brunnea Brown Hyena Paraxerus cepapi Smiths Brush Squirrel Pedetes capensis Spring Hare Phacochoerus africanus Common Warthog Potamochoerus larvatus Bushpig Procavia capensis Rock Hyrax Raphicerus campestris Steenbok Sylvicapra grimmia Common Duiker x x Tragelaphus oryx Common Eland x x Tragelaphus strepsiceros Greater Kudu x x Lycaon pictus African Wild dog Tragelas Scriptus Bushbuck Proteles cristatus Aardwolf Notes: x indicates the detection of a species within the predetermined camera site. 59 2 x 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 x x x - x x x x x - x x 10 11 12 13 x x 14 15 16 x x x x 17 x 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 x x x x X x x x x x x x x X x x x x 27 x x x x - x - x - x x x x x x - x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x - x x - x - x - x - x - x - x x x x x x x x - x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x X x X x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x - x - x x - x - x - x x x x x x x x x x x - X x X x - x x x x x x x x x x x X x x x x - x - x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x - x - x x X x x x - x x x - x x x 39 x x x x x x x x - x - x - x - x - x - x x x x x 38 x x x x x x x x 37 x x x x x 36 x x x x 35 - - x x x x x x x x x x 34 x - x - 33 x - x - - x X x - x x x x x x x x x - x x x x x - - x x 32 - - x x x 31 x - x x x x - x x x - 30 x - x 29 x - x 28 x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x x X x x x x x x - x - x x x x x x x - x x Table 2.5—List of mammalian species of possible detection based on species ecology and distribution. Species status information provided from The International Union for Conservation of Natural Resources Red List of Threatened Species- least concern (LC), near threatened (NT), vulnerable (VU), endangered (EN), critically endangered (CR), and not listed by ICUN (N/A). Order Carnivora Common Name Species Name Diet Aardwolf African Civet African Clawless Otter* African (Common) Genet* African Leopard African Lion African Striped Weasel* African Wild Dog African Wildcat Banded Mongoose Bat-eared Fox Black-Backed Jackal Black-Footed Cat* Brown Hyena Cape Fox* Caracal Cheetah* Common Dwarf Mongoose* Domestic Cat* Honey Badger Large-Spotted Genet Marsh Mongoose* Selous' Mongoose* Serval* Slender Mongoose Proteles cristatus Civettictis civetta Aonyx capensis Genetta genetta Panthera pardus pardus Panthera leo Poecilogale albinucha Lycaon pictus Felis silvestris lybica Mungos mungo Otcyon megalotis Canis mesomelas Felis nigripes Parahyaena brunnea Vulpes chama Caracal caracal Acinonyx jubatus Helogale parvula Felis catus Mellivora capensis Genetta maculata Atilax paludinosus Paracynictis selousi Leptailurus serval Galerella sanguinea Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore 60 Status Population Status (ICUN) LC LC LC LC NT VU LC EN LC LC LC LC VU NT LC LC VU LC N/A LC LC LC LC LC LC Stable Unknown Stable Stable Decreasing Decreasing Unknown Decreasing Decreasing Stable Unknown Stable Decreasing Decreasing Stable Unknown Decreasing Stable N/A Decreasing Unknown Decreasing Unknown Stable Stable Table 2.5—Continued Spotted Hyena White-tailed Mongoose Crocuta crocuta Ichneumia albicauda Carnivore Carnivore LC LC Decreasing Stable Blue Wildebeest Bushbuck Bushpig Common Duiker Common Eland Common Warthog Giraffe Greater Kudu Impala Connochaetes taurinus Tragelas scriptus Potamochoerus larvatus Sylvicapra grimmia Tragelaphus oryx Phacochoerus africanus Giraffa camelopardalis Tragelaphus strepsiceros Aepyceros melampus Herbivore Herbivore Omnivore Herbivore Herbivore Omnivore Herbivore Herbivore Herbivore LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC LC Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Decreasing Stable Stable Klipspringer Steenbok Waterbuck Oreotragus oreotragus Raphicerus campestris Kobus ellipsiprymnus Herbivore Herbivore Herbivore LC LC LC Stable Stable Decreasing Bushpig Potamochoerus larvatus Omnivore LC Stable Cape Porcupine Smiths Brush Squirrel Spring Hare Hystrix africaeaustralis Paraxerus cepapi Pedetes capensis Herbivore Herbivore Herbivore LC LC LC Stable Stable Unknown African Elephant Loxodonta africana Herbivore VU Increasing Plains Zebra Equus quagga Herbivore LC Stable Bush Hyrax* Rock Hyrax Heterohyrax brucei Procavia capensis Herbivore Herbivore LC LC Unknown Unknown Artiodactyla Artiodactyla Cetartiodactyla Rodentia Proboscidea Perissodactyla Hyracoidea 61 Table 2.5—Continued Primates Chacma Baboon Vervet Monkey Greater Bushbaby* Papio ursinus Chlorocebus pygerythrus Otolemur crassicaudatus Omnivore LC Omnivore LC Gumivore/F LC Stable Stable Stable Lagomorpha Jameson's Red Rockhare (red rabbit)* Pronolagus randensis Scrub Hare Lepus saxatilis Folivore Folivore LC LC Unknown Decreasing Insectivore LC Unknown Tubulidentata Aardvark *indicates species not photographed. Orycteropus afer 62 CHAPTER 3: PREDICTING OCCURRENCE/OCCUPANCY FROM A COMMUNITY SURVEY OF MEDIUM TO LARGE-SIZED MAMMALS IN THE TULI GAME RESERVE OF BOTSWANA ABSTRACT: Using baited and non-baited camera traps I conducted a survey of mammals in The Tuli Wilderness Area (TWA) located within The Northern Tuli Game Reserve (NTGR) of Botswana. In the 34 day sampling period I had a total of 248 trap nights at 36 individual sites within the reserve. I used camera traps to determine occupancy and detection probabilities for 38 species detected from 12 May to 13 June 2011. Species detected included large and medium carnivores, herbivores, omnivores, insectivores, and folivores. Detection probabilities and occurrence estimates varied among taxonomic groups, and the species with the highest probability of detection (47%) were the scrub hare (Lepus saxatilis) and impala (Aepyceros melampus). Six species had probability of detection estimates < 5% indicating that these species as extremely hard to detect. Occupancy results indicated that species occupancy varies within the TWA. Carnivore occupancy was the highest within the TWA, followed by herbivores. Insectivores had the lowest occupancy rates. I created occupancy covariate models for 5 species in order to determine the effect of covariates (mopane vegetation, mixed forest, roads, drainage lines, distance to water, baited/non-baited) on detection probabilities and occurrence. These effects varied based on species. Camera trap operation was most efficient with fewer than 6 days of operation, which coincided with the average Latency to Detection (LTD) for species with a mean of ̅ = 6.6 days. Results from occupancy modeling can help establish factors affecting species of concern or endangered status found within the TWA. With calculated rates of species occupancy, detection probabilities, and habitat covariate modeling, managers of the TWA can focus research efforts with increased species data. 63 Key words: Mammals, occupancy modeling, presences/absence, reserves, Northern Tuli Game Reserve (NTGR), carnivore, occurrence, latency to detection (LTD). 64 INTRODUCTION The African continent is home to many mammalian megafauna which exist within wildlife reserves either for conservation protection or for sport to attract outdoorsmen. Reserves provide habitat for the approximately 194 large and 140 medium to small mammal species (Fjeldsa et al. 2004). Efforts to conserve and maintain biodiversity have focused on particular taxa with emphasis on large carnivores due to their life history characteristics, which include habitat requirements, low population densities, and role as top predators (Ray et al. 2005). Large carnivores have served as targets for conservation, but most importantly as tools for helping to create conservation action plans for improving and maintaining mammalian biodiversity. There are several proposed ways that these mammals can be utilized as tools for conservation, such as for ecosystem conservation (umbrella, keystone species), ecosystem restoration (keystone species), as conservation symbols (flagship species), to prioritize areas for conservation (focal or umbrella species), for site-based conservation planning (focal or umbrella species), and for maintaining biodiversity (indicator species). The World Wildlife Fund (WWF) Global Species Program (GSP) utilizes large carnivores as flagship species, ambassadors, poster animals to support regional or border conservation goals, and for maintaining/preserving habitat. In protecting large mammalian carnivores, such as the mountain lion (Puma concolor), habitat corridors and reserve networks have been conserved, benefiting many other species (Ray et al. 2005). Due to the establishment of new reserves and maintenance of existing reserves there has been a decrease in mortality of large mammals. In Kruger National Park in South Africa, 93% of leopard (Panthera pardus) mortality is caused by natural occurrences (interspecific competition, disease, or starvation) and the remaining 7% is due to anthropogenic effects (Loverridge et al. 65 2010). Reserves are areas with specific boundaries that focus on site-based conservation, which has been used to configure area size, habitat patch connectivity by corridors, or even connectivity with other reserves (Ray et al. 2005). The selection of any mammalian species for use as a focal or indicator species begins with surveying and monitoring species. Fjeldsa et al. (2004) examined reserve network patches throughout Africa to determine deficiencies and restrictions between habitats that affect mammalian species. Results indicated a greater need for additional reserves to fill gaps within areas of southern Africa and to create a reserve network detailing all biodiversity within them (Fjeldsa et al. 2004). The proposed Limpopo/Shashe Trans Frontier Conservation Area (TFCA) will connect numerous reserves in northeastern South Africa, Botswana, and Zimbabwe and will be composed of private reserves, national parks, and state owned lands (Hughes 2005). Connecting once restricted gaps between protected habitats requires detailed management action plans. The proposed habitat area is ideal for increased reintroduction of endangered species such as black rhinoceros (Diceros bicornis), African wild dog (Lycaon pictus), and other species which may be near threatened status (IUCN 2012). Surveying mammalian carnivore diversity can be difficult due to their rare and elusive nature (Balme et al. 2007, Bowekett et al. 2006, Kauffman et al. 2007). Camera trapping is a valuable tool for surveying large carnivores (Jackson et al. 2005). This method of examining mammalian assemblages aids in conservation assessments (richness), insights into territorial behaviors, population density, habitat selection, and estimating occupancy rates (Kelly and Holub 2008, Marnewick et al. 2006, Negroes et al. 2010, Rowcliffe and Carbone 2008, Thorn et al. 2009). Utilizing remotely placed infrared camera traps enhances sampling of species temporally and spatially, and results in a permanent record of species inhabiting specific habitats (Kays and Slauson 2008). Moruzzi et al. (2002) examined species-specific habitat relationships 66 within a mammalian community in order to determine habitat preferences. By utilizing camera trap data they were able to estimate distributions of most species such as bobcats (Lynx rufus) and red foxes (Vulpes vulpes). Infrared camera trapping provides more precise identification of large mammals (Lyra-Jorge and Ciocheti 2008). Camera traps have been used to detect extremely rare mammalian carnivores by using baits or lures placed along roads and game trails and with the assistance of skilled trackers (Karanth and Nichols 2010, Rowcliffe and Carbone 2008). Identification of travel corridors allows researchers to determine preferred areas in which to place cameras (Karanth and Nichols 2010). Setting cameras out more often and for shorter sampling periods has been effective in increasing sample size (Moruzzi et al. 2002). Evaluation of the effectiveness of camera traps has been compared to conventional techniques used in the conservation biology field since the increased use of camera traps in the 1980s (Gompper et al. 2006, Foresman and Pearson 1998, Karanth et al. 2010, Rowcliffe and Carbone 2008). The effectiveness of camera traps or any other technique must be examined and tailored to fit the study area being surveyed (Kays and Slauson 2008). Evaluating effectiveness of camera trapping in areas like private or state-owned reserves can involve latency to detect (LTD) for specific species (Karanth et al. 2010). This measure yields information about the camera’s ability to accurately detect species, and also the amount of effort required to capture a species of interest (Foresman and Pearson 1998, Gommper et al. 2006). Camera traps can be used to create detection histories for species (MacKenzie et al. 2002, 2006). This approach utilizes maximum likelihood estimation to predict the occurrence and probability of detecting an animal (Karanth and Nichols 2010). Researchers can use detection histories to produce estimates of site occupancy even when detection histories at sites are <1 (MacKenzie et al. 2002). Occupancy modeling provides researchers with a robust method that 67 has been adapted from standard capture-recapture analysis and allows for potential detection of species that might go otherwise undetected (MacKenzie et al. 2002, 2006). Occupancy models allow researchers to evaluate covariates associated with occupancy (e.g. habitat) and detection (e.g. survey method). This method also allows use of smaller sample sizes and thus is more cost effective than other techniques (MacKenzie et al. 2006). These parameters are known as covariates and can include variables such as habitat type or distance to certain geological features (MacKenzie et al. 2006, MacKenzie and Bailey 2004). Modeling for species occurrence provides information on occurrence within specific covariate parameters. Identifying these habitat covariates can increase detection of a species (Harris and Ogan 1997). Thorn et al. (2009) examined occupancy of brown hyenas (Parahyaena brunnea) to evaluate the effectiveness of camera traps in determining occupancy rate and covariate modeling using environmental and lure covariates. They found the probability of detection to be 10%, with the model indicating habitat and lure covariates as being the best. Model results indicated that hyenas were most likely to be found in scrub or woodland habitat, and fish lures had the greatest detection probability (Thorn et al. 2009). Occupancy models provide additional information for rare or elusive species regarding the proportion of area (sites) they occupy. Managers then have the ability to map, predict, and assess distribution of species to establish plans for increased monitoring and detection of animals. For the purposes of this study, I used camera traps to determine occupancy for the mammalian assemblages within the Tuli Wilderness Area (TWA). The goal of my survey was to create estimates for occupancy and detection probabilities. Also, I aimed to examine the frequency of detection by species, along with the amount of survey effort needed to detect individuals and the most appropriate length of time required to have camera traps in operation 68 within this type of African reserve. I determined covariate models for five species: brown hyena, spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta), African leopard, scrub hare (Lepus saxatilis), and the African elephant (Loxodonta africana). METHODS Study Area I conducted a survey of medium to large mammals within The Tuli Wilderness Area (TWA) located in The Northern Tuli Game Reserve (NTGR) of Botswana (Fig. 3.1). The Northern Tuli Game Reserve was created by various landowners with similar conservation interests (McKenzie 1990); this reserve is not recognized by Botswana’s government but is maintained by private land owners. The reserve is on the eastern boundary of Botswana between 21°55’S and 22°15’S and flanked by Zimbabwe between 28°55’E and 29°15’E (McKenzie 1990, Styles and Skinner 2000, Walker et al. 1987). The NTGR is bordered southerly by The Republic of South Africa and the Limpopo River. The eastern boundary is with Zimbabwe and the Shashe River. The Tuli block is approximately 3000 km2 of mostly unfenced land with a mixture of agriculture land and is situated in the central district which covers 147,730 km2 (Kuhn 2012, McKenzie 1990, Fig. 3.1) Vegetation in the NTGR is classified as mopane veld (McKenzie 1990, Styles and Skinner 2000). NTGR has an extensive system of drainage lines running throughout the reserve, and water also moves via the Majale River that joins the Limpopo River and continues to the south (McKenzie 1990). Study sites within the TWA consisted of approximately 4500-5000 hectares of mopane veld with a mixture of forested and rocky koppie habitats (McKenzie 1990). By lacking fenced borders the TWA provides animals freedom of movement between other farms, with the 69 exception of a northern fence line that separates villages from the reserve (Selier 2007). Similar to the NTGR, the TWA maintains meandering rivers and drainage lines throughout the area that move water and provide habitat for animals during dry seasons. Camera Trapping I conducted camera trap surveys from 12 May to 13 June 2011. Camera traps were used to survey medium and large sized mammals. Medium sized species were those with a weight of 2.0-20 kg and large species were ones < 20 kg. A total of 15 camera traps was deployed throughout TWA based on a stratified randomized design (Table 3.1) Thirty-nine individual sites were randomly chosen within a 500x500 m grid square based on information from skilled trackers, accessibility, and risk of harm to researchers by wildlife (Karanth and Nichols 2010). All camera stations consisted of one remotely triggered infrared camera trap (Reconyx HyperFire HC500 or Primos TRUTH CAM60). Camera sites were set along roads, drainage lines, or other areas (open areas or water holes) at distances of 300 m to 500 m apart (Kays and Slauson 2008, Negroes et al. 2010). Each was set at a height of 0 to 0.5 m, attached to trees with a nylon strap, and positioned at optimum angles for sensor detection of multiple species. Angles were determined by test photos which captured the whole study site clearly and without obstruction. Camera sensor sensitivity was set to medium to reduce triggering by wind and moving vegetation. Number of photographs taken per detection was set to 5 with a 5 second delay between photo series. Once placed, reinforced cable locks were used to prevent damage or theft of cameras (Kays and Slauson 2008). To enhance detection of multiple species, certain sites were baited (Kauffman et al. 2007, Thorn et al. 2009) using impala (Aepyceros melampus) harvested by the land manager of the TWA in accordance with pre-allocated allowances for research and local subsistence. Bait was placed in front of cameras no more than 16 m away, and consisted of 70 various muscles from hind and forelimbs along with entrails. Length of surveys ranged from 6 to 34 days (Gompper et al. 2006); cameras were moved to increase the number of site surveys (Kays and Slauson 2008). Cameras were checked daily or weekly. At the end of the 34 day survey period photographs were arranged by individual site location. Photographs were examined to identify individual species detected and arranged by taxonomic order. Each of the sites’ data were examined and species lists were arranged by taxon to indicate species detected at separate camera locations. Species richness was calculated for each camera site. I used the IUCN Redlist to categorize each species’ status of concern as least concern (LC), near threatened (NT), vulnerable (VU), endangered (EN), critically endangered (CR), and not listed by IUCN as unknown (UK) and population for each species was determined using The International Union for Conservation of Natural Resources (IUCN) Red List for threatened or endangered species (IUCN 2012). Modeling Occupancy In order to conduct occupancy analysis, I organized photographic data from camera locations into a detection history. This history was determined by the detection of an individual species and assigned a binary value of “1” for detection and “0” as non-detection (MacKenzie et al. 2006). For each species that was detected I maintained an individual history, and site data were arranged by sampling occasions for a total of 11, with no fewer than 3 per survey site. Individual sampling occasions were organized into 3 trap nights per occasion in order to reduce the amount of missing data. Estimates of species occupancy and probability of detection rates were analyzed using single-species single-season occupancy modeling methods (MacKenzie et al. 2002, 2006). All occupancy analyses were conducted using PRESENCE 2 software version 71 4.2 (Hines 2006). This software allows the generation of maximum likelihood estimates to be determined for occupancy (Ψ) and probability of detection (p) of species. The results for each of these outputs are identified by ̂ for individual detection probabilities and Ψ indicating the proportion of sites within the study area that were occupied by an individual species and ̂ being the estimated parameter of the area that a species occupies (MacKenzie et al. 2002, 2006). I also used single-species single-season occupancy modeling methods proposed by MacKenzie et al. (2002, 2006) and PRESENCE 2 software version 4.2 for additional analysis of covariate modeling (Hines 2006). In this analysis, 5 species were selected to have models constructed based on their current status by the IUCN and population trends. The selected species were brown hyena, spotted hyena, leopard, scrub hare, and African elephant. A list of 10 a priori covariate models were used to evaluate occupancy (Table 3.2). To model detection probability, I used 11 a priori models created using 6 separate site covariates: roads, drainage lines, mopane vegetation, mixed forest vegetation, baited sites, and site distance to nearest water source (Table 3.3). Geographical Information Systems (GIS) were used to create layers of water features and site locations. Using Esri ArcGIS v10.0 (ArcMap) software, I calculated distances to nearest water sources for individual sites. Models were created to predict factors that would affect probability of detecting species in reserve areas and ultimately in monitoring species occurrence (Thorn et al. 2009). Evaluation of models was done using the Akaike weight (wi) and Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) which was corrected for smaller sample sizes (AICc) and is recommended unless sample sizes are large compared to the number of parameters (MacKenzie et al. 2006). Global models were checked for over-dispersion using a chi-square test with 10,000 bootstraps and evaluation of ̂ , as at least 1,000 are required (Thorn et al. 2009, MacKenzie et al. 2006). This check of over-dispersion was only done for global models and not subsequent 72 models; if found to be over-dispersed ( ̂ > 1), an inflation correction factor of ̂ was added to standard errors (Burnham and Anderson 2002). In situations when one must account for over dispersion, analysis model selection criteria of quasi-AICc (QAICc) was used to select the most appropriate model (Burnham and Anderson 2002). Species Frequencies and Camera Effort For determining frequencies of detection for the 38 species observed, data were pooled for all sites, and a detection history was created based on only the detection of a species at each site. The frequency was calculated not for individual sites, but for the frequency of detection during the entire 34 day sampling period within the TWA. In order to examine if there were potential differences in the frequencies of species detected, data were organized by low, medium, and high frequencies of detection. A non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis One Way Analysis of Variance on Ranks test with a Dunn’s multiple comparison were performed on frequencies because they failed to meet assumptions of normality for a parametric test. To determine the most appropriate number of days to leave camera traps in operation within African reserves such as the TWA, camera effort was separated into three categories for analysis: days in operation 06, 7-12, and >13. I conducted a Kruskal-Wallis One-way Analysis of Variance on Ranks with a Dunn’s multiple comparison procedure to investigate where the differences occurred. A nonparametric statistical test was used as a result of not meeting assumptions of normality. Latency to initial detection (LTD) allows examination of the time required to detect individual mammal species, but also helps evaluate efficiency of cameras traps (Gompper et al. 2006). This metric was determined by the number of trap nights required to detect an individual target species (Foresman and Pearson 1998, Gompper et al. 2006). 73 Research design and implementation was conducted using guidelines set forth by the American Society of Mammalogists (Sikes et al. 2011). All methods and protocols were approved by the University of Central Missouri Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee on 13 May 2011 (IACUC-Approved Permit No. 11-3217). RESULTS Throughout the 34 day sampling survey I was able to capture over 50,000 photographs, and I detected 38 separate mammalian species within 248 trap nights. These detections included large and medium carnivores, herbivores, omnivores, and insectivores (Table 3.4). Overall, occupancy rates for individual species varied within each Order (Table 3.5). Occupancy rates for species ranged from high Ψ=0.87±0.08, including the brown hyena, impala, and common warthog (Phacochoerus africanus ); to extremely low rates of naïve occupancy of Ψ=0.02±0.00 for the caracal (Caracal caracal) and white-tailed mongoose (Ichneumia albicauda); (Table 3.5). Carnivore occupancy was determined to be the highest at Ψ=0.69±0.08, and this was followed by herbivores with Ψ=0.44±0.08, folivores with Ψ=0.42±0.09, omnivores with Ψ=0.31±0.14, and the lowest occupancy was insectivores with Ψ=0.17±0.13. Detection probabilities for individual species also varied among taxonomic groups (Table 3.5). The 2 species which had the highest estimated detection probability were the impala and scrub hare (47% , Table 3.5). Six species, the caracal, white-tailed mongoose, honey badger (Mellivora capensis), African lion (Panthera leo), African leopard, Smith’s bush squirrel (Paraxerus cepapi), and klipspringer (Oreotragus oreotragus) had detection probability estimates ≤ 5% indicating harder detection ability (Table 3.5). All other mammalian species had detection probability estimates > 6% (Table 3.5). 74 Models selected as top ranked models are those which yield the majority of the model weight (wt), with ∆AICk or ∆QAICk values > 2, and contain the fewest number of parameters. Top models will carry the greatest impact on either Ψ or p, but other models having ∆AICk values between 4 and 7 will still have influence, but with less support (MacKenzie et al. 2006). Models with values < 10 have no support or effect on detection or occurrence (MacKenzie et al. 2006). Occupancy covariate modeling for brown hyena, spotted hyena, leopard, scrub hare, and African elephant resulted in differing model outcomes between species (Table 3.6-3.15). Global models for scrub hare and brown hyena had ̂ values > 1, indicating over-dispersal. This was corrected using the procedure by MacKenzie et al. (2006). The top ranked covariate model for occupancy of brown hyena was determined using ∆QAICk with a value of < 2 indicating significant support was the constant (Ψ) model, with 26% of the model weight and indicating no effect of covariates on Ψ (Table 3.10). Evidence of ∆QAIC values of < 2 indicated roads (14%) and drainage lines (10%) having some influence on Ψ (Table 3.10). Covariate probability models for brown hyena indicated mixed forest (25%), drainage lines (15%), constant detection “p” (13%), bait (12%), and distance to water (11%) affecting detection probability with mixed forest as the greatest effect (Table 3.11). Top ranked covariate models for brown hyenas showed higher occupancy within roads, drainage lines, and areas which have been baited. Results from spotted hyena occupancy models indicate that the global model was the top model having lowest ∆QAICk with most of the model weight at 32% (Table 3.12). Other models with ∆QAICk values < 2, for spotted hyena occupancy were distance to water (20%), roads + drainage lines + mixed forest (14%), and roads (12%). Of all of the top covariate models, distance to water and roads were revealed as the best model choices based on parsimony (Table 3.12). Final models for effects of covariates on detection probability for spotted hyena 75 designated a constant “p” model as the top ranked model with 81% of the weight (Table 3.13). Thus, there is no support for any effects of covariates on the detection probability of spotted hyena. Hyena occupancy increased along roads and when distance to water increased. African leopard covariate models for occurrence provide 25% of the model weight for constant occurrence (Ψ) having a ∆AICk value < 0.001, indicating this as the top model (Table 3.8). Other covariate models having less support with ∆AICk values between 2-4 were distance to water (23%), mopane vegetation (14%), and drainage lines (12%). Although these models indicated less support, they still affected occurrence based on ∆AICk values (Table 3.8). Covariate modeling for detection probability showed 100% of the model weight for constant “p”, indicating no effect of covariates on detection probability (Table 3.9). No other model provided moderate support for covariate effects as all ∆AICk values were greater than 10 (Table 3.9). Leopard occurrence increased within the TWA within mopane vegetation, drainage lines, and when distance to water increased, were detection probability was not affected by covariates. The highest ranked models for scrub hare occurrence were shown to be constant Ψ (24%), mopane (20%), distance to water (18%), and mixed forest (16%; Table 3.14). Based on the number of parameters and the rule of parsimony, the mopane and constant Ψ models would be good covariate models because they have the lowest number of parameters. Detection probability covariate models found that roads (14%), mopane (13%), constant “p” (13%), distance to water (13%), drainage lines (13%), mixed forest (13%), and bait (13%) all affected scrub hare detection probability (Table 3.15). Scrub hares were expected to have increased occurrence within areas of mopane vegetation or mixed forest with greater distances to water. Detection probability of this species was shown to be affected by 7 of the covariates (Table 3.15). 76 Top covariates for the African elephant were constant Ψ (23%), mixed forest (20%), distance to water (13%), mopane vegetation (12%), and roads (10%). The overall top model was the constant Ψ model, based on ∆AICk and having the fewest of parameters. Other models were still top covariates because they had ∆AICk values < 2, but the number of parameters was higher than the constant Ψ model. These models carried at least 10% of the weight individually, and combined they represented 55% of the total weight (Table 3.6). Covariate models listed in Table 3.7 affected detection probability of the African elephant and top models were shown to be bait (29%), distance to water (18%), mixed forest (15%), and drainage lines (12%). Overall occurrence of the African elephant was found to be positive in areas such as mopane vegetation, mixed forest habitats along roads, and areas having adequate distances to water sources. Detection probability could be affected by bait, distance to water, mixed forest, and drainage line covariates. The frequency of detection varied for the species observed during the sampling season (Fig. 3.3, Table 3.16). This detection frequency was highly variable, similar to the occupancy rates, ranging from highest (0.82) for brown hyena to lowest (0.03) for aardwolf (Proteles cristata), African wild dog, and caracal (Table 3.5). High, medium, and low categories of frequency species were significantly different (Kruskal-Wallis one-way multiple test, H2 = 27.161 P = <0.001). Species with high frequencies of detection were significantly different when compared to low category species (Dunn’s test, q=3.999, P<0.05). Results also indicate significant differences between medium and low frequency species, and medium frequency species having increased species detection (Dunn’s test, q= 4.064, P<0.05). Species richness ratios were significantly different among categories of length in operation (Kruskal-Wallis oneway multiple test, H2=13.073, P=0.001, Fig. 3.2). There were significant differences between 77 categories 0-6 and >13 (Dunn’s test, q=3.607, P<0.05), with species detection most efficient with length of camera trap operation ≤ 6 days. This coincides with the Latency for Detection (LTD) values estimated for species as 28 of the 38 species had LTD values ranging from 2-6.6 (Table 3.16). Individual species LTD values varied among the 38 species detected within the TWA (Table 3.16). DISCUSSION Modeling species occupancy has been utilized for examining mammalian species occurrence within reserve areas (Karanth et al. 2009). I was able to use occupancy models as an alternative to abundance for estimating habitat selection (MacKenzie et al. 2005). Occupancy results in my study were similar to carnivore results published by Karanth et al. (2009) regarding occupancy within protected areas of India. They were able to determine overall occupancy rates for 20 mammalian species, including carnivores and herbivores. Rate was determined by sighting surveys from professionals throughout India and results revealed an average occupancy of 0.55 (Karanth et al. 2009). These results correspond to my data within the TWA as the overall average was 0.50. Detection probabilities provide data for the likelihood of detecting a species of interest. The estimated detection probabilities varied among species, from 0.01 to 0.47. Results for herbivore detection probabilities of 0.08-0.47 were found to be similar to those of Collier et al. (2011). Their study assessed low veld savannah habitat in eastern Swaziland using multiple surveyors, and they observed an overall average herbivore detection probability of 0.22-0.57. Collier et al. (2011) found that 50% of species can be missed in surveying dense habitat, but their findings also support our survey design for sampling several features (roads, open patches, and dense forest) for species detection. This suggests that managers incorporate multiple survey techniques, such as visual surveys and track and sign surveys, along with camera trapping, to 78 help monitor mammals (Long et al. 2010, Collier et al. 2011). Interpretations of the health of the mammalian community can be drawn from the 50% rate of occurrence for herbivores, which provide sustenance for the larger carnivore species within the reserve. Ramakrishnan et al. (1999) examined the effects of low prey occurrence on large carnivore density within the Mudumalai Wildlife Sanctuary of India. They surveyed the sanctuary for sightings of large carnivores and prey, and found a decrease in large carnivore occurrence or detection where larger herbivores are absent. The inverse effect can be seen within the TWA from our survey results indicating that the mean carnivore occupancy was 64% with a mean probability of detection of 15%. Evidence suggests that having a high enough and stable occurrence of medium and large prey will support the diverse carnivore community within the TWA. By utilizing occupancy modeling methods from MacKenzie et al. (2002, 2006), I was able to construct separate covariate models for brown hyena, spotted hyena, African leopard, scrub hare, and African elephant. Effects of covariates for occurrence and detection probability varied between species as expected. For the brown hyena, my results correspond to those of Thorn et al. (2009) where brown hyena detection increased with use of a baited lure and camera placement in scrub (mopane) vegetation. My model provides evidence that increased occurrence can be observed with camera placement on road-type features and dry drainage lines. The overall rate of brown hyena occupancy of 0.87 was higher in the TWA than those obtained by Thorn et al. (2011) in areas where hyena occupancy was lower at a rate of 0.74. Modifications to survey design for brown hyena would include increasing sites within scrub (mopane) vegetation and having an additional camera at an opposing angle for individual identification in population estimates. The spotted hyena models that were assessed indicated that the covariates’ affect on occurrence resulted in the global model, which included all 6 covariates. This model indicates 79 that all individual covariates have the ability to impact occurrence of spotted hyena. My results are comparable to Holekamp and Dloniak (2010) where spotted hyenas were detected within a variety of habitats, especially in forest-savanna mosaics. Furthermore, they found detection of this species is invariant (unchanging) among study areas (Holekamp and Dloniak 2010). My best fit model for detection indicated that covariates had no effect on the ability to detect individuals. These models reveal that spotted hyena occurrence can be affected by habitat factors such as mopane vegetation, mixed forest, distances to water, presence of drainage lines, roads, and a combination of these factors. The ability of detecting an individual for this species on the other hand has no covariate factors that would hinder the detection. For continued monitoring of spotted hyena in the TWA using camera traps, a recommendation would be to increase sampling within all habitat areas by placing an additional camera within individual sites for population estimation. Measuring occurrence of African leopard within the TWA is affected by distance to water, mopane vegetation, and drainage lines. African leopard occurrence increased when camera traps were baited, and these results are similar to those of Kauffman et al. (2007) who examined rangeland impacts on carnivores within Namibia using baited camera traps. They found that baited traps increased detection and researchers were able to determine leopard declines as a result of increased persecution of poachers, human population density, and a reduction in prey availability (Kauffman et al. 2007). There was no effect of covariates on detection probability, and this can be explained by Hayward et al. (2006) who studied the life history of the African leopard. They conducted a comprehensive literature survey of leopard ecology in 29 areas. Their findings, along with those of Gavashelishvili and Lukarevskiy (2008), suggest that leopards have adapted to become carnivore generalists. My recommendation for 80 further monitoring of the African leopard within the TWA would be to increase camera trap surveys with additional cameras at site locations. Also, I would recommend incorporating the use of photographic data with track signs to monitor individuals and determine population status Subsequent habitat models with a combined weight of 41% indicated savannah veld positively affected occurrence, and this has been indicated as preferred hare habitat (Lombardi et al. 2003). My results demonstrate that African elephants within the TWA had a 64% rate of occupancy with a 41% probability of detection. Covariate modeling suggests that there were no effects on occurrence from habitat covariates. There were also fewer substantial models shown to have possible effects which carried a combined 45% of the overall weight. In using additional models, I agree with results from Harris et al. (2008), who conducted a study on habitat use by African elephants. They found that elephant occurrences were higher in areas of mopane vegetation, forested areas, and areas with an increased proximity to a water source (Harris et al. 2008). Continued monitoring of African elephants within the TWA should be conducted with additional considerations for monitoring movements between local, unrestricted private farms and reserves. A complete vegetation analysis is recommended to aid in furthering the comparison of all mammalian species interactions and suitable habit. Camera trapping involves various considerations when monitoring and surveying mammalian species, from distribution of cameras to length of their deployment (Kays and Slauson 2008). Results from our study differ from those of Moruzzi et al. (2002), where they found that length of camera operation should be set at periods of 15-21 days. My results concluded that for reserve areas similar to the TWA, camera trap operation is most efficient in lengths of up to 6 days. These results are further shown to be effective because rates of species LTD averaged 6.6 days. There were exceptions on LTD for rare or endangered species, such as 81 the African wild dog, which had a LTD of 21 days. Overall in observing mammalian species diversity within the TWA, the reduction in the length of days in operation resulted in a greater number of individual species detected while still allowing for the survey of a greater proportion of the reserve. When monitoring rare species with camera traps, increasing the length of days in operation would likely capture rare animals, as their LTD is much greater. Although camera trapping was very successful within the TWA there are a few disadvantages to using camera traps. Camera traps are stationary and thus cannot capture species when moving to forage, escape predators, or disperse to new areas. Camera traps are not capable of collecting biological data such as hair, blood, and scat samples. Also, cameras may not detect individuals which move along the rear of the camera outside of the detection beam. Mechanical malfunctions can also occur when using camera traps such as blank black photos, inaccurate day/time information (if set incorrectly), or spontaneous complete shutdown. The initial cost of camera trap equipment can be costly ranging from $70 to over $500 and depend on the data storage and battery capabilities (Ryan 2011). Even with disadvantages camera traps are very effective in detecting rare species and collecting data in areas which are large or areas with logistical implications. I was able to demonstrate that occupancy modeling is an effective tool for surveying and monitoring species within an African reserve. With calculated rates of species occupancy and detection probabilities, managers of the TWA can focus further research efforts based on increased species data. Results of covariate models will help pinpoint factors affecting selected species, especially those with declining or unknown population status and those considered endangered or near threatened. 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Brown hyaenas on roads: Estimating carnivore occupancy and abundance using spatially autocorrelated sign survey replicates. Biological Conservation (Inpress). WALKER, B. H., R. H. EMSLIE, R. N. OWEN-SMITH, AND R. J. SCHOLES. 1987. To cull or not to cull: lessons from a Southern African drought. 24(2):381-401. 92 Table 3.1—Summary of stratified random habitat selection percentages for camera trap placements within the Tuli Wilderness Area. Habitat Type Percent Cover (%) Amount of Camera placements Riverine 15 3 Acacia woodland 65 10 Shrub-lands 20 3 Total 100 16 93 Table 3.2—List of a priori models with hypotheses for effect on occurrence (Ψ) from camera trap survey in The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. Hypothesis Model No habitat effects on model Ψ(.) Effect of mopane habitat on occurrence Ψ(mopane) Effect of mixed forest on occurrence Ψ(mixed forest) Effect of roads on occurrence Ψ(roads) Effect of drainage lines on occurrence Ψ(drainage lines) Effect of distance to water on occurrence Ψ(distance to water) Mopane, mixed forest, roads, drainage lines, distance to water, and bait all affect occurrence Effect of roads, drainage line, and mixed forest on occurrence Effect of distance to water, roads, and mopane on occurrence Effect of roads and drainage lines on occurrence 94 Ψ(global) Ψ(roads, drainage lines, mixed forest) Ψ(distance to water, roads, mopane) Ψ(roads, drainage lines) Table 3.3—List of a priori models with hypotheses for effect on detection probability (p) from camera trap survey in The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. Hypothesis Model No habitat effects on detection model p(.) Effect of mopane habitat on detection p(mopane) Effect of mixed forest on detection p(mixed forest) Effect of roads on detection p(roads) Effect of drainage lines on detection p(drainage lines) Effect of distance to water on detection p(distance to water) Effect of bait on detection p(bait) Mopane, mixed forest, roads, drainage lines, distance to water, and bait on detection Effect of roads, drainage line, and mixed forest on detection Effect of distance to water, roads, and mopane on detection Effect of roads and drainage lines on detection 95 p(global) p(roads, drainage lines, mixed forest) p(distance to water, roads, mopane) p(roads, drainage lines) Figure 3.1—Map of The Tuli Wilderness Study Area within the Northern Tuli Game Reserve, Botswana. 96 Table 3.4—Results for mammalian species detected from camera trap surveys within The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. Species status information provided from The International Union for Conservation of Natural Resources Red List of Threatened Species- least concern (LC), near threatened (NT), vulnerable (VU), endangered (EN), critically endangered (CR), and not listed by ICUN (UK). Order Carnivora Number of sites detected Common Name Species Name Diet Status Population Status (ICUN) Aardwolf African civet African leopard African lion African Wild dog African Wildcat Banded Mongoose Bat-eared Fox Black-Backed Jackal Brown Hyena Caracal Honey Badger Large-Spotted Genet Slender Mongoose Spotted Hyena White-tailed Mongoose Proteles cristatus Civetticis civetta Panthera pardus pardus Panthera leo Lycaon pictus Felis silvestris lybica Mungos mungo Otcyon megalotis Canis mesomelas Parahyaena brunnea Caracal caracal Mellivora capensis Genetta maculataenet Galerella flavescenson Crocuta crocuta Ichneumia albicauda Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore Carnivore 1 14 13 3 1 9 5 4 22 32 1 4 9 10 13 1 LC LC NT VU EN UK LC LC LC UK LC LC LC LC UK LC Stable Unknown Decreasing Decreasing Decreasing Unknown Stable Unknown Stable Unknown Unknown Decreasing Unknown Stable Unknown Stable Blue Wildebeest Bushbuck Bushpig Common Duiker Common Eland Common Warthog Connochaetes taurinus Tragelas scriptus Potamochoerus larvatus Sylvicapra grimmia Tragelaphus oryx Phacochoerus africanus Herbivore Herbivore Omnivore Herbivore Herbivore Omnivore 11 4 6 6 12 24 LC LC LC LC LC LC Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Stable Artiodactyla 97 Table 3.4—Continued Order Common Name Giraffe Greater Kudu Impala Species Name Giraffa camelepardalis Tragelaphus strepsiceros Aepyceros melampus Diet Herbivore Herbivore Herbivore Klipspringer Steenbok Waterbuck Orertragus oreotragus Raphicerus campestris Kobus ellipsiprymnus Herbivore Herbivore Herbivore Cape Porcupine Hystrix africaeaustralis Smith’s Brush Squirrel Paraxerus cepapi Spring Hare Pedetes capensis African Elephant Number of sites detected 2 21 27 Status LC LC LC Population Status (ICUN) Decreasing Stable Stable 2 8 4 LC LC LC Stable Stable Decreasing Herbivore Herbivore Herbivore 8 2 5 LC UK LC Stable Unknown Unknown Loxodonta africana Herbivore 21 VU Increasing Plains Zebra Equus quagga Herbivore 14 LC Stable Rock Hyrax Procavia capensis Herbivore 2 LC Unknown Chacma Baboon Papio hamadryas ursinus Omnivore 9 LC Stable Artiodactyla Rodentia Proboscidea Perissodactyla Hyracoidea Primates 98 Table 3.4—Continued Order Number of sites detected Status Population Status (ICUN) 2 LC Stable Common Name Vervet monkey Species Name Chlorocebus pygerythrus Diet Omnivore Scrub Hare Lepus saxatilis Folivore 12 LC Decreasing Aardvark Orycteropus afer Insectivore 4 UK Unknown Lagomorpha Tubulidentata 99 Table 3.5—Results for mammalian species occupancy within 95% confidence interval, estimated probability of detection, and naïve occupancy estimates for under-dispersed species. Frequencies of individual species detected with the number of sites detected are displayed. Detected from camera trap surveys within The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. Mammalian Species Carnivore Black-Backed Jackal Caracal African Civet Spotted Hyena African Wildcat Slender Mongoose Large-Spotted Genet White-tailed Mongoose Honey Badger Banded Mongoose Bat-eared Fox African Lion African Leopard Brown Hyena African Wild dog Aardwolf 0.45 0.01 0.35 0.19 0.14 0.13 0.18 0.00 0.02 0.18 0.15 0.02 0.05 0.46 0.12 0.08 Ψ Standard Error Confidence Interval (95%) Frequency of Detection at sites Number of sites detected 0.46 1.00 0.47 0.63 0.43 0.57 0.44 1.00 1.00 0.23 0.22 1.00 1.00 0.87 0.06 1.00 0.09 0.00 0.10 0.17 0.19 0.25 0.16 0.00 0.00 0.13 0.15 0.00 0.00 0.08 0.08 0.00 0.29-0.64 0.00-1.00 0.28-0.66 0.27-0.88 0.130.77 0.15-0.90 0.18-0.73 0.00-1.00 0.00-1.00 0.07-0.54 0.05-0.62 0.00-1.00 0.00-1.00 0.62-0.96 0.00-0.46 0.00-1.00 0.56 0.03 0.36 0.33 0.23 0.26 0.23 0.03 0.10 0.13 0.10 0.08 0.33 0.82 0.03 0.03 22 1 14 13 9 10 9 1 4 5 4 3 13 32 1 1 100 Naïve Occupancy Estimate 0.028 0.028 0.111 0.083 0.250 0.028 Table 3.5—Continued Ψ Standard Error Confidence Interval (95%) Frequency of Detection at sites Number of sites detected 0.47 0.43 0.36 0.08 0.08 0.41 0.32 0.40 0.21 0.34 0.34 0.01 0.42 0.19 0.01 0.33 0.81 0.28 0.47 0.08 0.19 0.64 0.28 0.19 0.69 0.64 0.14 1.00 0.06 0.23 1.00 0.28 0.07 0.08 0.10 0.39 0.20 0.10 0.09 0.07 0.16 0.12 0.07 0.00 0.04 0.11 0.00 0.09 0.64-0.91 0.14-0.46 0.28-0.66 0.00-0.99 0.1-0.75 0.43-0.80 0.13-0.48 0.08-0.37 0.33-0.90 0.39-0.82 0.04-0.32 0.00-1.00 0.01-0.22 0.08-0.51 0.00-1.00 0.13-0.48 0.69 0.28 0.36 0.05 0.10 0.54 0.21 0.15 0.31 0.54 0.10 0.05 0.05 0.13 0.05 0.21 27 11 14 2 4 21 8 6 12 21 4 2 2 5 2 8 0.43 0.29 0.41 0.36 0.70 0.18 0.06 0.30 0.08 0.08 0.04 0.09 0.53-.082 0.07-0.39 0.01-0.22 0.15-0.50 0.62 0.15 0.05 0.23 24 6 2 9 0.47 0.42 0.09 0.26-0.59 0.31 12 0.15 0.17 0.13 0.02-0.57 0.10 4 Mammalian Species Herbivore Impala Blue Wildebeest Plains Zebra Giraffe Waterbuck African Elephant Steenbok Common Duiker Common Eland Greater Kudu Bushbuck Klipspringer Rock Hyrax Spring Hare Smith’s Brush Squirrel Cape Porcupine Omnivore Common Warthog Bushpig Vervet monkey Chacma Baboon Folivore Scrub Hare Insectivore Aardvark 101 Naïve Occupancy Estimate 0.028 0.056 102 Table 3.6—Best fit model selection of site covariate effects on occurrence models (Ψ) for African elephant (Loxodonta africana). Model Ψ(.) Ψ(mixed forest Ψ(distance to water) Ψ(mopane) Ψ(roads) Ψ(drainage lines) Ψ(bait) Ψ(roads+drainage lines) Ψ(dist. to water, roads, mopane) Ψ(roads+drainage lines, mixed forest) Ψ(global) AICc 186.19 186.54 187.38 187.45 187.82 188.58 188.58 190.19 190.93 191.35 194.45 ∆AICk 0.00 0.35 1.19 1.26 1.63 2.39 2.39 4.00 4.74 5.16 8.26 wt 0.23 0.20 0.13 0.12 0.10 0.07 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.02 0.00 -2l 181.83 179.79 180.63 180.70 181.07 181.83 181.83 180.90 178.93 179.35 176.45 K 2 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 8 Corrected for effective sample size (AICc), (wt) model weight, (-2l) twice negative likelihood, (k) number of parameters. Table 3.7—Best fit model selection of site covariate effects on detection probability models (p) for African elephant (Loxodonta africana). Model p(bait) p(distance to water) p(mixed forest p(drainage lines) p(.) p(dist. to water, roads, mopane) p(roads+drainage lines, mixed forest) p(roads+drainage lines) p(mopane) p(roads) p(global) AICc 183.72 184.66 185.05 185.50 186.19 187.09 187.69 187.79 188.94 188.95 192.12 ∆AICk 0.00 0.94 1.33 1.78 2.47 3.37 3.97 4.07 5.22 5.23 8.40 wt 0.29 0.18 0.15 0.12 0.08 0.05 0.04 0.04 0.02 0.02 0.00 -2l 179.36 180.30 180.69 181.14 181.83 177.80 178.40 181.04 184.58 184.50 174.12 K 2 2 2 2 2 4 4 3 2 2 7 Corrected for effective sample size (AICc), (wt) model weight, (-2l) twice negative likelihood, 103 Table 3.8—Best fit model selection of site covariate effects on occurrence models (Ψ) for African leopard (Panthera pardus). Model Ψ(.) Ψ(distance to water) Ψ(mopane) Ψ(drainage lines) Ψ(mixed forest Ψ(roads) Ψ(roads+drainage lines) Ψ(dist. to water, roads, mopane) Ψ(roads+drainage lines, mixed forest) Ψ(global) AICc 80.55 80.77 81.76 82.08 82.60 82.93 84.36 85.51 86.85 88.35 ∆AICk 0.00 0.22 1.21 1.53 2.05 2.38 3.81 4.96 6.30 7.80 wt 0.25 0.23 0.14 0.12 0.09 0.07 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 -2l 76.19 74.02 75.01 75.33 75.85 76.18 75.07 73.51 74.85 67.02 K 2 3 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 8 Corrected for effective sample size (AICc), (wt) model weight, (-2l) twice negative likelihood, (k) number of parameters. Table 3.9—Best fit model selection of site covariate effects on detection probability models (p) for African leopard (Panthera pardus). Model p(.) p(bait) p(global) p(distance to water) p(mopane) p(dist. to water, roads, mopane) p(roads+drainage lines, mixed forest) p(mixed forest) p(roads+drainage lines) p(drainage lines) p(roads) AICc 80.18 93.83 97.61 100.19 100.30 101.09 102.77 107.93 108.34 113.77 113.78 ∆AICk 0.00 13.65 17.43 20.01 20.12 20.91 22.59 27.75 28.16 33.59 33.60 wt 1.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 -2l 75.82 89.47 79.61 95.83 95.94 91.80 93.48 103.57 101.59 109.41 109.42 Corrected for effective sample size (AICc), (wt) model weight, (-2l) twice negative likelihood, (k) number of parameters. 104 K 2 2 7 2 2 4 4 2 3 2 3 Table 3.10—Best fit model selection of site covariate effects on occurrence models (Ψ) for brown hyena (Parahyaena brunnea). Model Ψ(.) Ψ(roads) Ψ(drainage lines) Ψ(mopane) Ψ(mixed forest) Ψ(roads+drainage lines) Ψ(roads+drainage lines, mixed forest) Ψ(distance to water) Ψ(dist. to water, roads, mopane) Ψ(global) QAICc 155.01 156.31 156.95 157.04 157.30 157.57 159.89 160.00 165.25 171.25 ∆QAICk 0.00 1.30 1.94 2.03 2.29 2.56 4.88 4.99 10.24 16.24 wt 0.26 0.14 0.10 0.09 0.08 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.00 0.00 -2l 227.48 225.84 226.80 226.94 227.33 223.90 223.32 231.41 231.41 231.41 K 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 3 5 8 Corrected for over-dispersal and effective sample size (QAICc), (wt) model weight, (-2l) twice negative likelihood, (k) number of parameters. Table 3.11—Best fit model selection of site covariate effects on detection probability models (p) for brown hyena (Parahyaena brunnea). Model p(mixed forest) p(drainage lines) p(.) p(bait) p(distance to water) p(roads) p(mopane) p(roads+drainage lines) p(roads+drainage lines, mixed forest) p(dist. to water, roads, mopane) p(global) AICc 230.5 231.57 231.84 232.02 232.22 232.62 232.63 233.96 234.79 236.64 243.26 ∆AICk 0 1.07 1.34 1.52 1.72 2.12 2.13 3.46 4.29 6.14 12.76 wt 0.25 0.15 0.13 0.12 0.11 0.09 0.09 0.04 0.03 0.01 0.00 -2l 226.14 227.21 227.48 227.66 227.86 228.26 228.27 227.21 225.5 227.34 225.26 Corrected for effective sample size (AICc), (wt) model weight, (-2l) twice negative likelihood, (k) number of parameters. 105 K 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 7 Table 3.12—Best fit model selection of site covariate effects on occurrence models (Ψ) for spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta). Model Ψ(global) Ψ(distance to water) Ψ(roads+drainage lines, mixed forest) Ψ(roads) Ψ(drainage lines) Ψ(.) Ψ(dist. to water, roads, mopane) Ψ(mopane) Ψ(mixed forest) Ψ(roads+drainage lines) AICc 117.29 118.23 118.90 119.24 119.46 121.36 121.95 122.96 123.73 132.78 ∆AICk 0.00 0.94 1.61 1.95 2.17 4.07 4.66 5.67 6.44 15.49 wt 0.32 0.20 0.14 0.12 0.11 0.04 0.03 0.02 0.01 0.00 -2l 95.96 111.48 106.90 112.49 112.71 117.00 109.95 116.21 116.86 126.03 K 8 3 5 3 3 2 5 3 3 3 Corrected for effective sample size (AICc), (wt) model weight, (-2l) twice negative likelihood, (k) number of parameters. Table 3.13—Best fit model selection of site covariate effects on detection probability models (p) for Spotted hyena (Crocuta crocuta). Model p(.) p(distance to water) p(drainage lines) p(mixed forest) p(mopane) p(roads) p(bait) p(roads+drainage lines) p(dist. to water, roads, mopane) p(roads+drainage lines, mixed forest) p(global) AICc 121.36 127.84 135.22 129.53 133.83 136.16 131.42 132.78 127.65 126.16 128.68 ∆AICk 0.00 6.48 13.86 8.17 12.47 14.80 10.06 11.42 6.29 4.80 7.32 wt 0.81 0.03 0.01 0.02 0.00 0.00 0.01 0.00 0.04 0.07 0.02 -2l 117.00 123.48 130.86 125.17 129.47 131.80 127.06 126.03 118.36 116.87 110.68 K 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 7 Corrected for effective sample size (AICc), (wt) model weight, (-2l) twice negative likelihood, (k) number of parameters. 106 Table 3.14—Best fit model selection of site covariate effects on occurrence models (Ψ) for scrub hare (Lepus saxatilis). Model Ψ(.) Ψ(mopane) Ψ(distance to water) Ψ(mixed forest) Ψ(roads) Ψ(drainage lines) Ψ(roads+drainage lines) Ψ(dist. to water, roads, mopane) Ψ(roads+drainage lines, mixed forest) Ψ(global) QAICc ∆QAICk 90.29 0.00 90.69 0.40 90.88 0.59 91.11 0.81 92.56 2.27 92.58 2.29 94.81 4.52 95.09 4.80 96.11 5.82 103.05 12.76 wt 0.24 0.20 0.18 0.16 0.07 0.07 0.02 0.02 0.01 0.00 -2l 137.49 138.12 134.61 134.97 137.30 137.33 136.83 132.94 134.58 130.74 K 2 2 3 3 3 3 4 5 5 8 Corrected for over-dispersal and effective sample size (QAICc), (wt) model weight, (-2l) twice negative likelihood, (k) number of parameters. Table 3.15—Best fit model selection of site covariate effects on detection probability models (p) for scrub hare (Lepus saxatilis). Model p(roads) p(mopane) p(.) p(distance to water) p(drainage lines) p(mixed forest) p(bait) p(roads+drainage lines) p(dist. to water, roads, mopane) p(roads+drainage lines, mixed forest) p(global) QAICc 44.31 44.40 44.45 44.45 44.45 44.45 44.51 46.63 48.86 49.09 57.00 ∆QAICk 0.00 0.09 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.14 0.20 2.32 4.55 4.78 12.69 wt 0.14 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.13 0.04 0.01 0.01 0.00 -2l 137.00 137.31 137.49 137.49 137.50 137.51 137.69 136.80 135.73 136.53 133.78 Corrected for over-dispersal and effective sample size (QAICc), (wt) model weight, (-2l) twice negative likelihood, (k) number of parameters. 107 K 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 3 4 4 7 Figure 3.2—Graph of results for analysis of species richness ratios detected compared to length of camera trap days in operation from camera trap survey conducted within The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. Mean species with standard errors (SE) and significance of (Kruskal-Wallis one-way multiple test, H2=13.073, P=0.001) noted by *. 108 Figure 3.3—Mammalian species frequency of detection result from camera trap survey within The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. 109 Table 3.16—Results for mammalian species mean latency to detection (LTD) with associated standard errors in parentheses, total number of sites detected and overall frequency of detection at camera sites from camera trap surveys within The Tuli Wilderness Area, Botswana, 2011. Species Name Number of sites LTD (Days) detected Proteles cristatus Civetticis civetta Panthera pardus pardus Panthera leo Lycaon pictus Felis silvestris lybica Mungos mungo Otcyon megalotis Canis mesomelas Parahyaena brunnea Caracal caracal Mellivora capensis Genetta maculataenet Galerella flavescenson Crocuta crocuta Ichneumia albicauda 5(-) 5.21(0.93) 5.9(1.34) 11.33(4.98) 21(-) 8(2.32) 9.8(4.2) 3(0) 4.4(0.86) 3.83(0.44) 6(-) 6(3.08) 6.67(1.20) 5.89(1.97) 3.6(0.56) 2(-) 1 14 13 3 1 9 5 4 22 32 1 4 9 10 13 1 0.03 0.36 0.33 0.08 0.03 0.23 0.13 0.10 0.56 0.82 0.03 0.10 0.23 0.26 0.33 0.03 Artiodactyla Blue Wildebeest Bushbuck Bushpig Common Duiker Common Eland Common Warthog Giraffe Greater Kudu Impala Connochaetes taurinus Tragelas scriptus Potamochoerus larvatus Sylvicapra grimmia Tragelaphus oryx Phacochoerus africanus Giraffa camelepardalis Tragelaphus strepsiceros Aepyceros melampus 4.4(0.58) 5(1.53) 3.4(0.4) 4.43(1.23) 6.44(1.28) 3.5(0.43) 7(1) 4.16(0.67) 3(0.37) 11 4 6 6 12 24 2 21 27 0.28 0.10 0.15 0.15 0.31 0.62 0.05 0.54 0.69 Artiodactyla Klipspringer Steenbok Waterbuck Orertragus oreotragus Raphicerus campestris Kobus ellipsiprymnus 2(-) 6.38(1.31) 9(5) 2 8 4 0.05 0.21 0.10 Common Name Carnivora Aardwolf African Civet African Leopard African Lion African Wild Dog African Wildcat Banded Mongoose Bat-eared Fox Black-Backed Jackal Brown Hyena Caracal Honey Badger Large-Spotted Genet Slender Mongoose Spotted Hyena White-tailed Mongoose 110 Frequency of Detection Table 3.16—Continued Species Name LTD (Days) Number of sites detected Hystrix africaeaustralis Paraxerus cepapi Pedetes capensis 7(3.04) 4.5(1.5) 4.57(0.85) 8 2 5 0.21 0.05 0.31 Proboscidea African Elephant Loxodonta africana 4.5(0.73) 21 0.54 Perissodactyla Plains Zebra Equus quagga 5.21(1.18) 14 0.36 Hyracoidea Rock Hyrax Procavia capensis 6(1) 2 0.05 Primates Chacma Baboon Vervet Monkey Papio hamadryas ursinus Chlorocebus pygerythrus 3.67(0.82) 3.5(0.5) 9 2 0.23 0.05 Lagomorpha Scrub Hare Lepus saxatilis 11.8(2.38) 12 0.13 Common Name Rodentia Cape Porcupine Smith’s Brush Squirrel Spring Hare Frequency of Detection Tubulidentata Ardvark Orycteropus afer 9.75(4.87) 4 0.10 (-) Represents lack of standard errors for species that were only detected at one camera site. 111 INCLUSIVE LITERATURE CITED AUGUSTINE, D. 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Please remember that a statement of any modification to this animal use protocol, including personnel and procedural modifications, must be submitted to the IACUC prior to implementation of said modifications. Likewise, animal use training of all personnel must be completed before work may begin. Approval by this committee does not imply that equipment or facilities are available. Please contact animal facility managers to make specific arrangements. Your approved protocol has been issued a protocol number and an expiration date listed below. Please keep this information in your records, as you may need it for granting and publication purposes. Please reference your protocol number on correspondence concerning this animal use protocol. This protocol is approved for three years; however, every protocol must be reviewed by the IACUC once a year. If you intend to use animals purchased under this protocol number after the expiration date, you must resubmit the protocol as a new initial submission. Animal use protocol #: 11-3217 Protocol expiration Date: 5/2/2014 If you have further questions and/or concerns regarding the use of animals in research or the classroom at the University of Central Missouri, please notify: Dr. Scott Lankford ([email protected]) –Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee Chair Dan Metcalf, M.S. – Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee Liaison Sincerely, Scott Lankford, PhD Institutional Animal Care and Use Committee Chair Dept. of Biology and Earth Science WCM 303, University of Central Missouri [email protected] 130