Download Fernandes et al, Projecting fish production in

Projecting fish production in Bangladesh under climate change
J.A. Fernandes, M. Barange, M.A.R. Hossain, M.Ahmed, M.M. Rahman, S. Kay, R.
Torres, G. Merino, A.N. Lazar
The fisheries industry provides a crucial source of income and food to
Bangladesh, and is second only to agriculture in the overall economy of the
country. Fisheries accounts for 4.4% of Bangladesh GDP, 22.8% of agriculture
sector and 2.5% of total export earnings. It also contributes 60% of the animal
protein intake in Bangladesh, and even higher in populations near the coast.
Inland capture fisheries contribute 1 Mt of fish catch, and marine capture
fisheries an additional 0.6 Mt (2013 data). There is also a significant contribution
of aquaculture products (ca 1.7 Mt) from ponds, haors, baors and shrimp farms.
The main captured species (in both inland and marine catches) is Hilsa shad
(Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca 10.6% of the inland and marine
catches. Hilsa is an anandromous fish widely distributed in the Indian Ocean. As
part of the ESPA Delta project we are developing tools to predict the long term
productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries, with particular interest in
Hilsa shad. These tools are based on climate-driven ecosystem modelling
projections of water properties, primary and secondary production in the Bay of
Bengal, which are used to develop size-based and species-based predictions of
fish productivity changes in the period up to 2040. Here, we present the fish
projections for Hilsa Shad and total fish potential production of the Bay of Bengal,
by size classes. These projections are contrasted with public data and survey
data collected for that aim in ESPA-DELTA. Finally, these projections are
contextualized in terms of the meaning for societies that are highly dependent on
natural resources.