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Projecting fish production in Bangladesh under climate change J.A. Fernandes, M. Barange, M.A.R. Hossain, M.Ahmed, M.M. Rahman, S. Kay, R. Torres, G. Merino, A.N. Lazar The fisheries industry provides a crucial source of income and food to Bangladesh, and is second only to agriculture in the overall economy of the country. Fisheries accounts for 4.4% of Bangladesh GDP, 22.8% of agriculture sector and 2.5% of total export earnings. It also contributes 60% of the animal protein intake in Bangladesh, and even higher in populations near the coast. Inland capture fisheries contribute 1 Mt of fish catch, and marine capture fisheries an additional 0.6 Mt (2013 data). There is also a significant contribution of aquaculture products (ca 1.7 Mt) from ponds, haors, baors and shrimp farms. The main captured species (in both inland and marine catches) is Hilsa shad (Tenualosa ilisha), which accounts for ca 10.6% of the inland and marine catches. Hilsa is an anandromous fish widely distributed in the Indian Ocean. As part of the ESPA Delta project we are developing tools to predict the long term productive capacity of Bangladesh marine fisheries, with particular interest in Hilsa shad. These tools are based on climate-driven ecosystem modelling projections of water properties, primary and secondary production in the Bay of Bengal, which are used to develop size-based and species-based predictions of fish productivity changes in the period up to 2040. Here, we present the fish projections for Hilsa Shad and total fish potential production of the Bay of Bengal, by size classes. These projections are contrasted with public data and survey data collected for that aim in ESPA-DELTA. Finally, these projections are contextualized in terms of the meaning for societies that are highly dependent on natural resources.