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Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost Contributions to cryospheric and climate monitoring Sharon Smith Geological Survey of Canada Kananaskis, March 2, 2005 Permafrost is soil or rock that remains below 0°C throughout the year Permafrost is an important component of the cryosphere and an integral part of the climate system • variations in permafrost temperatures can be a sensitive indicator of climate change and variability • warming and thawing of permafrost can have impacts on natural and human systems: – Permafrost variations have implications for terrain stability, hydrology, gas fluxes, infrastructure, northern development and ecosystems. Permafrost is an important feature of the northern landscape Massive ice Pingo Patterned ground Permafrost affected peatlands Presence of permafrost and ground ice presents challenges to northern development • • presence of permafrost and thaw settlement/frost heave considered in design of infrastructure techniques used to preserve infrastructure integrity Foundation design for permafrost environments Thawing of massive ice Techniques to preserve frozen ground Utilidors Warming and thawing of frozen ground can lead to instabilities in the landscape Unstable ground Thawing of ground ice and thermokarst terrain Active layer detachment Damage to buildings and infrastructure Global Climate Observing System (GCOS) and the Global Terrestrial Network for Permafrost (GTN-P) • Key cryospheric variables for monitoring through WMO’s GCOS – Active layer – Permafrost thermal state • GTN-P established under leadership of International Permafrost Association (IPA) in 1999 • Provide long-term observations of active layer and permafrost temperature that are required for: – understanding the present permafrost conditions – detection of terrestrial climate signal in permafrost and its temporal and spatial/regional variability – development and validation of permafrost, climate change and impact models – assessment of carbon sources and sinks in permafrost regions – northern development and land use decisions – design of adaptation strategies to mitigate the impacts of climate warming in permafrost – improving our ability to provide ongoing, large area, timely assessment of cryospheric change GTN-P web site gtnp.org GTN-P Thermal monitoring sites Circumpolar Active Layer Monitoring (CALM) Network • 125 sites contribute to CALM • Active layer thickness determined through – probing – thaw tubes – temperature measurements • Measurements maybe done – at points – along transects – on grids Active layer, Mackenzie Delta Thaw depth determined from interpolation of 2.5 ground temperature profile at Baker Lake BH4 Ground surface 2 Thaw Depth (m) Measurement of thaw settlement 1.5 1 Thaw depth 0.5 0 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 Permafrost Thermal State • Borehole monitoring – few metres to several 100 m deep – frequency of measurements varies from daily to monthly to annual to several years • Method – Single probe – Permanent multi-sensor cable • manual measurements • continuous measurements with data loggers Alert 15 m Trend 1994-2000 +0.15°C/yr Manual Measurements Alert BH5 Temperature (oC) 0 -10 -20 -30 .76m 4.57m 1990 1995 15.24m High frequency data collection with data loggers 2000 Alert BH5 0 Borehole 5 July 2000 to August 2001 -5 Temperature Envelopes - Alert -25 0 -20 Temperature ( C) -15 -10 -5 0 Temperature (°C) -10 o -15 -20 0.762m 1.524m -25 2.286m Depth (m) 3.048m 4.572m 20 -30 7.62m 9.144m 15.24m -35 01-Jul 40 60 BH1 BH2 BH3 BH5 31-Jul 30-Aug 29-Sep 29-Oct 28-Nov 28-Dec 27-Jan 26-Feb 28-Mar 27-Apr 27-May 26-Jun 26-Jul 25-Aug Collection of Climate Data Wrigley daily air temperature and snow depth Air Temp Wind Speed Sep-03 Aug-03 Jul-03 Jun-03 May-03 Apr-03 Mar-03 Jan-03 Feb-03 Dec-02 25-09-03 25-08-03 25-07-03 25-06-03 25-05-03 25-04-03 25-03-03 25-02-03 25-01-03 25-12-02 25-11-02 25-10-02 0 Nov-02 10 Snow Depth 0.8 0.7 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 Oct-02 20 Air Temp 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 Alert 20 Air 0 -20 Temperature (oC) 30 Temperature (C) 40 Snow Depth (m) 50 Wind speed (m/s) 60 25-09-02 Temperature (c) Wrigley monthly mean air temperature and wind speed 25 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 -20 -25 -30 -35 -40 -45 -40 20 Ground Surface 0 -20 -40 BH3 July 2000 Sep Nov Jan 2001 Mar BH5 May July Peatland site – Northern Alberta 16 Ground surface temperature Mackenzie Delta region 92TT1 Ground Surface Temperature 12 8 Ground surface Temperature (°C) 4 Thaw depth 0 -4 -8 -12 -16 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 -20 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Model validation Analysis of trends in air and permafrost tempeature Iqaluit Monthly Ground Temperature HT142 Iqaluit - Monthly ground temperatures at 5 m depth -2 -4 -8 -10 -12 -14 12 month running mean air temp Jul-01 Jan-02 Jul-00 Jan-01 Jul-99 Jan-00 Jul-98 Jan-99 Jul-97 Jan-98 Jul-96 Jan-97 Jul-95 Jan-96 Jul-94 Jan-95 Jul-93 Jan-94 Jul-92 Jan-93 Jul-91 Jan-92 Jul-90 Jan-91 Jul-89 Jan-90 Jul-88 Jan-89 -16 Jan-88 Temperature (°C) -6 12 month running mean Sep Oct Nov Dec Determination of onset of freezing and thawing Evaluation of impact of warming 5m Aug High Arctic Observatories – Hydrocarbon Wells • Deep temperature measurements using single probe • High frequency temperature measurement to depths of 80 m since 1991 • Data used to determine ground surface temperature history Alert Gemini Pat Bay Marryatt Data retrieval from Gemini near Eureka Grise Fiord Resolute Challenges of Arctic field work Data retrieval from Pat Bay, Lougheed Island -15 -15.1 88 m -15.2 High Arctic Observatories • • -15.4 68 m -15.5 67 m 58 m -15.6 53 m -15.7 -15.8 47 m 48 m 37 m 43 m High resolution data collection Development of ground surface temperature histories through application of mathematical inversion techniques 32 m -15.9 38 m 33 m -16 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 -15 65.75m -15.1 Mean annual permafrost temperature from Gemini, near Eureka -15.2 Temperature (°C) Temperature (°C) -15.3 Mean annual permafrost temperature from Pat Bay, Lougheed Island -15.3 -15.4 35.75m 30.75m 25.75m 47.75m -15.5 -15.6 -15.7 1990 20.75m 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 3.5 Gemini GSTH -12 Reconstruction of Ground Surface Temperature History 3 MAAT - Eureka Weather Station GSTH - #175 - GSTH 1992 800-m manual log + 8 1- 2.5 2 MAAT (oC) -14 -16 -18 -20 1.5 GSTH (°C) • Inversion of deep logs for hydrocarbon wells (Pat Bay and Gemini) + inversion of shallow temperature logs (1991-97) 1 -1.5 1500 Comparison of Gemini and Pat Bay GSTH 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 350 Total Snow (mm) -0.5 -1 300 Total snow - Eureka 250 200 150 100 50 Environment Canada 2000a 0 1550 1600 1950 16501960 1700 1750 1970 1800 1980 1850 1900 1990 1950 2000 2000 4 3 GSTH (oC) 4 1950 0.5 0 o +0.101 C/a 1977-98 o -0.026 C/a 1950-76 -22 3 2 2 1 0 GSTH - #175 1992.35 manual log + 8 1-yr means cable 1991-97 GSTH - #175 1992.35 800-m cable -1 GSTH (°C) -2 1 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 Date (year) 0 Comparison of inversion of 800 m log with inversion of 800 m log and 8 one year means for Gemini -1 -2 -3 1800 FIG. 175-GSTH/CLIMATE 1820 1840 1860 1880 1900 Gemini 1920 Pat Bay 1940 1960 1980 2000 Alert – Ground Surface Temperature History Reconstruction -10 BH1 48.8 m -11 BH1 30.5 m Temperature (°C) -12 -13 BH3 57.3 m -14 BH3 32.9 m • -15 BH2 54.8 m GSTH determined from shallow (to 60m) temperature logs Simultaneous inversion of 9 one year means (1979-2000) BH2 30.5 m -16 80 85 90 95 00 • 3 2 3 2 1 0 GSTH (°C) GSTH (°C) 1 -1 0 -1 -2 BH1 BH2 -2 BH3 BH1 -3 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 -3 1800 1820 BH2 1840 BH3 1860 1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 Development of Remote Sensing Techniques • Remote sensing techniques can potentially extend the in situ measurements from GTN-P to the broader spatial domain • GTN-P can provide data for development and validation of remote sensing techniques • Information provided through remote sensing can complement the in situ measurements and lead to for example – quantification of freeze-thaw states – quantification of carbon budgets – improved climate change impact assessments Summary GTN-P provides information that can be used to: • Document and quantify fluctuation in permafrost conditions • Improve understanding of cryosphere-climate processes • Develop and validate permafrost-climate models • Including improved representation of ground thermal regime in climate models • Development and validation of remote sensing techniques 0.0 -0.2 -0.4 Temperature °C -0.6 -0.8 -1.0 -1.2 -1.4 Manners Creek 10 m Petitot River 10 m Table Mountain 12 m Canyon Creek 12 m -1.6 -1.8 -2.0 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 Permafrost temperature trends, Mackenzie Valley, south of Norman Wells