Download Impact of Climate Change on Water Security in China

Impacts and Adaptation
Advances in Climate Change Research
Article ID: 1673-1719 (2009) Suppl.-0034-07
Impact of Climate Change on Water
Security in China
Zhang Jianyun1, 2, Wang Guoqing1, 2 , Yang Yang1, 3, He Ruimin 1, 2 , Liu Jiufu1, 2
1 Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China;
2 Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China;
3 Hydrology Bureau, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100053, China
Abstract: Global warming has become an important environmental issue, and water is the resource most directly affected by climate
change. Global warming will alter the amount and spatial distribution of available water resources by accelerating the atmospheric
circulation and the hydrological cycle. Moreover, global warming would likely lead to more severe water shortages, deterioration of
aquatic systems and more floods disasters. In this paper, the possible impacts of global warming on water security with respect to flood
control, water supply, aquatic environment, and water conservancy engineering, are discussed.
Key words: climate change; water security; impact
Introduction
Water is subject to the atmospheric and hydrological
circulation systems, which are directly affected by climate
change. It is generally believed that global climate change
will result in significant increases in temperature, sea level
and the frequency of extreme weather/climate events [1J2].
Climate-related studies began in the late 1970s with the
launch of programs by the WMO (World Meteorological
Organization), UNEP (United Nations Environment
Programme) and IAHS (International Association of
Hydrological Sciences), such as WCIP (World Climate
Impact Program), and GEWEX (Global Energy and Water
Cycle Experiment). These programs have resulted in great
advances in the study of climate change, water resources,
floods, and droughts. For example, Schwarz [3] analyzed
hydrological regimes in northeast USA and appraised the
effects of climate change on water supply. Furthermore,
Karl et al. [4] conducted a preliminary assessment of the
future regime of water resources in USA based on the output
of GCMs and concluded that the annual runoff and floods
in the northwest Pacific region would increase under future
climatic change scenarios, and the impact of future climate
change on water resources would be larger in low flow
Received: March 10, 2009
Corresponding author: Zhang Jianyun, E-mail: [email protected]
©2009 Editorial Office of Advances in Climate Change Research
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Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2009, 5 (Suppl.): 34J40
regions than in high flow regions. However, due to the
limitation of data and technology, as well as the complexity
of current climate issues, very few studies have been
conducted to evaluate the effects of climate change on
aquatic ecological systems and aquatic engineering.
China has a large population with a low level of
economic development and a vulnerable ecological
environment, therefore is quite vulnerable to climate
change. Due to its specific climate condition and
geographical location, China suffered from many floods
and droughts in the past. In the 1990s, the average annual
loss associated with floods accounted for approximately
62% of the total losses of natural disasters, which was
equivalent to about 1.55% of GDP for that period [5] . In
addition, China is currently undergoing rapid economic
development and increasing human activities; therefore,
water-related issues such as deterioration of water quality,
over-exploitation of ground water, and soil erosion have
become severer. Global warming would likely accelerate
future atmospheric and hydrological cycles, thus changing
the spatio-temporal distribution of water resources.
Therefore, climate change could exacerbate the water
shortages that currently exist in China, as well as the
deterioration of the aquatic ecological environment that is
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Advances in Climate Change Research
occurring. It is also likely that climate change will lead to
an increase in the frequency and intensity of extreme events
in China such as serious floods and large-scale droughts.
Hence, climate change has potential to directly threaten the
water security of China. Therefore, the potential effects of
climate change on flood control, water supply, aquatic
ecological environments, and hydraulic engineering
projects were analyzed in this study.
1 Flood control
China has long been prone to floods and droughts.
Floods usually bring about vast losses of life and property
due to their rapid development and unpredictable nature.
Accordingly, flood control is persistently a concern in
China.
The trend of historical flood disasters in China has
demonstrated that flood control is still a major concern.
Indeed, since the 1990s, many major rivers in China have
flooded. Specifically, in 1991 the Yangtze River and Huaihe
River flooded, while the southern Haihe River flooded in
1996, the Yangtze River, Songhua River and Minjiang River
flooded in 1998, the Huaihe River, Weihe River and
Hanjiang River flooded in 2003, and the Huaihe River and
Hanjiang River flooded in 2005. In addition, the largest
whole basin flood since 1954 occurred in the Huaihe River
basin in 2007. The increasing number of high intensity
rainstorms has also struck Chongqing, Nanjing, Jinan, as
well as other large cities since the 1990s. Indeed, China’s
national annual flood loss during 1990J2005 exceeded 110
billion RMB, accounting for 1%J2% of GDP in the same
period. The following issues have led to inadequate flood
control in China. 1) Incomplete flood control systems,
especially along major rivers. 2) Prominent issues regarding
the stabilization of reservoirs. For example, approximately
37% of the constructed reservoirs in China are currently
not well stabilized. 3) Weak nonstructural measures.
Specifically, the current ability to provide early warnings,
to forecast and manage floods and to provide emergency
response needs improvement. 4) The rapid social economic
development that China has recently experienced has
enhanced the damage loss associated with floods; however,
imperfect flood insurance acts and flood control laws have
made decision-making and disaster mitigation more
difficult.
Climate change will also create a need to focus on the
following three aspects of flood control.
(1) The frequency and intensity of extreme events, such
as high intensity rainstorms, have increased in response to
global warming. Trenberth [6] suggested that an increase in
surface temperature would lead to an increase in the
evaporation of land surface and the moisture holding
capacity of air, thus resulting in an increase in atmospheric
moisture. The increased surface evaporation will aggravate
drought disaster in some areas while leading to increased
precipitation and flooding in other areas. In addition, climate
change will lead to significant warming in the lower
atmosphere, likely bring about increased frequencies of high
temperatures, heat waves, and droughts, and enlarged areas
affected by drought disasters.
Strong rainstorms are usually generated by interactions
between cold and warm air masses; therefore, increased
warming of the lower atmosphere will increase instability
of the atmosphere. As a result, increased amounts of warm
air will likely flow upward, resulting in an increase in
extreme weather events. Simulated results for China
indicate that heavy rainfall events and rainy days will
increase remarkably in most areas of southern China in
response to global warming, especially in Fujian Province,
the west part of Jiangxi Province, and parts of Guizhou
Province, Sichuan Province and Yunnan Province of
Southwest China. In addition, simulations also indicate that
coastal areas of China will suffer from more frequent, and
much stronger typhoons, while the area affected by droughts
in northern China will also likely increase.
Liu et al. [7] evaluated the historical records of storm
floods in China and found the follows: a) Since the 1990s,
the intensities of rainfall events of short duration recorded
or obtained in flood survey in China have approached to
and reached the world’s records. For example, the intensity
of 1300 mm in 6J7 h (surveyed value) in a rainfall event at
Kuanping in Shaanxi Province in July of 1998 exceeded
the previous world record; while the rainfall of 1748.5 mm
was recorded in 24 h at Arli Mountain in Taiwan in 1996,
which was close to the world record. Furthermore, the
maximum rainfall intensity over Mainland China (1146.8
mm within 24 h) was recorded at Xifu Farm in Guangdong
Province in August 2007 [8] . b) Decadal variations in
rainstorms have shown different rising or declining trends
in different areas of China. For example, the decadal
maximum rainfall events of long duration in northern China
and southern China both occurred in the 1960s; however,
the secondary maximum process rainfall occurred in
northern China in the 1950s while in southern China in the
1990s. c) Since the 1990s, floods of entire basins have
occurred frequently, and rainstorm-induced geological
hazards have increased. Such as the Chongqing district
suffered from a severe drought/heat wave with a 100-year
Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2009, 5 (Suppl.): 34J40
35
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Zhang Jianyun et al.: Impact of Climate Change on Water Security in China
return period in 2006, and encountered a rainstorm with a
100-year return period in 2007, resulting in ten thousand
tons of debris flowing into the urban area of the city and 42
deaths.
Recent studies have also indicated that global warming
will lead to an annual increase in rainfall in China over the
next 50 years. Specifically, the annual nationwide rainfall
is expected to increase by an average of 2%J3% by 2020,
and 5%J7% by 2050, with the southeast coastal areas
experiencing the greatest increases. This increased average
precipitation will likely lead to increased frequency and
magnitude of regional torrential rain [2].
(2) Recently, the number of strong typhoons affecting
China has increased significantly, and as a result, the
economic losses associated with typhoons have also
increased. Strong typhoon or super strong typhoon has been
becoming one of the severest natural disaster sources,
especially since 2000, the number of China landfall
typhoons, as well as its intensity, have markedly increased.
But the relationship between increase in number of typhoons
and climate change is still not clear, which needs to be
studied in further.
(3) Since the 1950s, the sea level rising rate near
China’s coastal line is about 1.4J3.2 mm/a. Based on
projected data, global warming will lead to an average
increase in sea level of 12J50 cm by 2050, while the water
levels near the Zhujiang River Delta, Yangtze River Delta
and Yellow River Delta will increase by 9J107 cm [2].
Increased sea levels will likely lead to an increased threat
of floods in coastal areas that could be further aggravated
by storm surges.
2 Security of water supply
Although the total amount of water resources for China
is approximately 2800 billion m3, the amount per capita is
only about 2185 m3, which is less than 25% of the world
average. Furthermore, water resources are spatially and
temporally unevenly distributed, therefore the water
resource has become one of the important factors which
constrain the socio-economic development of China. Water
supply security involves drinking water supply, agricultural
water supply, and ecological water security.
Currently, 40% of the population of China lives in the
areas of water shortage. Huang-huai-hai plain and the inland
of northwest China account for 35% of the areas currently
experiencing water shortage. Accordingly, the security of
drinking water in these areas is a prominent problem. A
survey conducted by the Health Ministry in 1984 revealed
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Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2009, 5 (Suppl.): 34J40
that only 66% of the rural residents of China had access to
clean drinking water. Currently, 34% of rural residents still
do not have access to clean drinking water. In addition, an
investigation conducted by the Ministry of Water Resources
found that there are still over 300 million people in China
suffering from unsafe water supplies due to problems
associated with water sources and water quality.
The annual water deficit for China is approximately
40 billion m3 in a normal year. As a result, more than 400
cities out of the 668 medium-sized cities of China are
experiencing water shortage, 108 of which are experiencing
severe water shortage, and 160 million individuals living
in urban areas are affected by water shortage. The water
shortage has led to the overexploitation of groundwater.
There were 56 areas of groundwater overexploitation in
the 1980s; the number of areas had increased to 164 by the
end of the 1990s, the total area was 180 thousand km2, and
the total accumulated amount of overexploitation was 100
billion m3. This excessive exploitation of groundwater has
caused a series of secondary ecological and social problems,
such as land subsidence, seawater intrusion and groundwater pollution.
Global warming leads to increased demand for
agricultural irrigation water. Climate change may affect the
potential evaporation during the crop growing season, which
could lead to reduced soil moisture and increased demand
for agricultural irrigation water. For example, the annual
amount of irrigation water used in Huang-huai-hai Plain
will increase by 66%J84% if there is a 20% decrease in
annual rainfall. Agricultural droughts are characteristic of
wide range and heavy economic losses. Since the 1990s,
the annual drought-affected area in China has increased to
4.07 108 acres, causing a reduction of 2.45 1010 kg in
grain productivity, or approximately 5% of the total grain
productivity. On average, the annual drought-induced
economic loss is approximately 2.80 1011 RMB, which
accounts for 2%J3% of the GDP of China [2] .
Reduced precipitation is one of the key factors which
exacerbated the contradiction between water supply and
demand. Although the annual rainfall increased slightly
from 1991 to 2000, it has generally decreased at a rate of
2.9 mm/10a over the past 50 years [2]. The annual rainfall in
South China (the Pearl River basin), East China (the Huaihe
River basin, the lower and middle reaches of the Yangtze
River, etc.), and the western part of China (west of 103E)
has increased, especially in South China and East China it
has increased generally at a rate of 5J40 mm/10a, with a
large increase rate of 120 mm/10a in some parts of the areas.
However, the annual rainfall in central China including
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North China, the southeast part of Northeast China, Shaanxi
Province, Sichuan Province, and the southern part of Gansu
Province has decreased [8]. As a result, the distribution
pattern in which southern China was generally characterized
by a wet climate and northern China by a dry climate has
been aggravated to some extent under the global warming.
These changes have resulted in exacerbation of the
discrepancy between water supply and demand in northern
China.
The observed discharges of six large rivers in China,
i.e. the Haihe River, Huaihe River, Yellow River, Songhua
River, Yangtze River and Pearl River, especially of the
Haihe River and Yellow River have generally decreased
over the last 50 years. Indeed, since the 1980s the recorded
discharge from the Haihe River has reduced by 40%J70%
in comparison with that before. However, due to extreme
flood events in recent years, the recorded discharges from
the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River and the
upper reaches of the Huaihe River and Nenjiang River have
increased slightly (Table 1) [9].
Climate change has already changed the amount of
water available in China as well as its distribution. For
example, North China was continuously dry in the 1980s,
and the average annual precipitation in the Jingjin district,
the Hailuan River basin, and the Shandong Peninsula during
this period has decreased by 10%J15%. The average annual
discharge from the Hailuan River basin was only 1.55 10 10 m3 in 1980J1989, 46.2% less than the discharge in
1956J1979. Since the 1990s, the drought area of North
China has extended to the southwest. The average annual
Table 1 Discharges for large rivers in China
Average annual discharge/(m3/s)
River basin
1955J2005
Yangtze River
Yellow River
Changes in discharge since the 1980s/ %
Station site
1955J1980
1981J2005
Compared with
Compared with
1955J2005
1955J1980
Yichang
13700
13800
13700
J0.5
J0.8
Hankou
22600
22400
22800
1.0
1.9
Datong
28500
28100
29100
2.0
3.7
Tangnaihai
627
638
617
J1.6
J3.2
Huayuankou
1240
1460
978
J21.4
J33.0
Lijin
1020
1360
605
J40.5
J55.5
Wangjiaba
292
280
305
4.6
9.1
Wujiadu
859
878
836
J2.7
J4.8
Guantai
31
49
11
J65.4
J77.9
Shixiali
16
25
6
J64.2
J76.6
Xiangshuipu
12
16
6
J45.5
J61.2
Xiahui
9
11
7
J22.4
J40.1
Zhangjiafen
17
25
9
J45.6
J62.2
Tieling
103
116
80
J21.9
J30.9
Jiangqiao
670
647
697
3.9
7.6
Haerbin
1350
1360
1330
J1.3
J2.5
Wuzhou
6610
6680
6530
J1.2
J2.2
Shijiao
1320
1320
1310
J0.5
J0.9
Zhuqi
1680
1700
1670
J0.9
J0.9
Huaihe River
Haihe River
Songliao River
Pearl River and
Minjiang River
Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2009, 5 (Suppl.): 34J40
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Zhang Jianyun et al.: Impact of Climate Change on Water Security in China
precipitation over 1990J1998 in the upper and middle
reaches of the Yellow River, including Shaannxi, Gansu
and Ningxia, as well as in the Hanjiang River basin, the
upper reaches of the Huaihe River, and the Sichuan Basin
have reduced by 5%J10% when compared with the normal
level; and correspondingly the recorded annual discharge
at Lijin station of the Yellow River was 32% less than the
multi-year average discharge [10] . Moreover, the water
availability has decreased significantly due to persistent
droughts in areas of northern China experiencing water
shortage, the reduction in flow of the Yellow River, Huaihe
River, Haihe River and Hanjiang River, human activitiesinduced water pollution, and excessive extraction of
groundwater. In addition, higher temperatures have resulted
in increased water consumption, thus increasing the
discrepancy between water supply and demand in northern
China. Reduced discharge occurred as the joint effect of
human activity, climate change and socio-economic
development; however, climate change played an important
role in the reduction of river discharge. Indeed, some studies
have shown that climate change might be responsible for
35%J40% of the reduction in runoff that has occurred in
the middle reaches of the Yellow River [11]. China’s Second
Assessment Report for National Water Resources, which
was based on the data from 1956J2000, demonstrated that
total amount of water resources in China was still 2.80 1012 m3, but the regional distribution has changed from 18%
to 16% in northern China, and 82% to 84% in southern
China.
The output from the RCM-PRECIS of the Hadley
Center (UK) under the SRES A2 and B2 scenarios was used
to study the water vulnerability and contradiction between
water supply and demand in a national key scientific
research project of the 10th Five-Year Plan [12]. The study
indicates that future climate change will have a significant
effect on water resources in China. Specifically, the results
of this study indicated that: 1) in the next 50J100 years,
the average annual discharge from rivers in northern China,
especially in Ningxia and Gansu Province, will decrease
significantly, while the discharge will likely increase in
southern China, especially in Hubei Province and Hunan
Province. Therefore, climate change will likely increase
the possibility of flood disasters in southern China and
drought disasters in northern China. 2) Water shortage in
northern China from 2050J2100 will be exacerbated,
especially in Ningxia and Gansu Province, which will result
in an increase in per capita water deficit. 3) Water resources
in the Haihe River and Luanhe River basins are most
vulnerable to climate change, and the second most
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Adv. Clim. Change Res., 2009, 5 (Suppl.): 34J40
vulnerable basins are the Huaihe River and Yellow River
basins. Due to the dry climate, the load capacities of water
resources in all inland river basins are also vulnerable to
climate change.
3 Security of aquatic ecological systems
Due to a dry climate and water shortage, ecological
issues such as flow running dry, river channels shrinkage,
soil desertification, excessive groundwater extraction, and
reductions in the area of wetlands have increased. In
addition, rapid socio-economic development has led to
increased levels of river water pollution. A survey of soil
erosion at the end of the 1990s revealed that the area of soil
erosion was approximately 3.56106 km2, accounting for
approximately 37% of the total area of China, and
approximately 5.0109 tons of soil was lost in each year.
Moreover, the area of human activities-induced soil erosion
was approximately 1.5 10 4 km2 each year. The soil
erosion has led to large amounts of deposition in river
channels, lakes, and reservoirs. River water pollution has
aggravated greatly since the 1980s. In 1980, the annual
amount of sewage released was approximately 2.41010 m 3.
During the 2002J2006, the discharged industry waste has
significantly increased, and the total discharged sewage in
2006 was approximately 2 times more in 1980. Additionally,
the river reaches where water quality was below Class III
standards in 1980 accounted for only 13% of the total river
length in China, but this increased to 41% in 2004.
Currently, approximately 3.010 8 rural residents have
problems associated with their drinking water, among
them 1.9108 individual have drinking water problems
associated with poor water quality.
The impact of global warming on the aquatic
ecological environment will likely lead to the following
problems: 1) Reduction in wetland area. Due to the effects
of climate change and human activities, rivers in northern
China frequently ran dry, lake area has shrunk, and the
storage of water in reservoirs has decreased significantly.
As a result, the function of wetlands has deteriorated [13].
Indeed, the number of natural lakes with an area larger than
1 km2 declined from 2800 in 1950 to 2350 in1980, which
corresponded to 11% reduction in the area of lakes. 2)
Coastal ecological issues caused by an increase in sea level.
Increased sea level will affect the ecological system in
coastal wetlands and result in sea water intrusion. Salt water
intrusion will not only interfere with the supply of
freshwater in the estuary region, but also cause soil
salinization in coastal areas. As a result, a freshwater
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replenishment project has been implemented in the Pearl
River to prevent seawater intrusion. 3) Due to global
warming and rapid socio-economic development, the
contradiction between water supply and demand will be
exacerbated, and groundwater exploitation as a
complementary measure will increase. It is likely that
excessive groundwater extraction will lead to unexpected
ecological problems. 4) Increases in high-intensity
rainstorms will aggravate soil erosion in central China,
western China and Southwest China; decreased
precipitation and increased temperature and evaporation
will accelerate soil desertification in Northwest China;
changes in the frozen soil belt in response to climate change
in Northeast China and the Qinghai-Tibet plateau will likely
alter the distribution and type of vegetation, which will also
likely lead to increased soil desertification and erosion [14].
5) Changes in precipitation and runoff will directly affect
water quality, especially in the northern areas of China, if
there is no strong and effective protection measures, water
quality will deteriorate further.
4 Hydraulic engineering security
Many hydraulic engineering projects of large scale
have been completed or are currently underway in China.
For example, the South-North Water Transfer Project
(SNWTP) connects the Yangtze River, Yellow River,
Huaihe River and Haihe River to optimize the allocation
of water resources from different sources in northern and
southern China. The project consists of a large number of
large node structures and wide-spread small structures. The
middle route of the SNWTP is composed of more than 1000
concrete structures, including channels, inverted siphons,
aqueducts, culverts, bridges, pumping stations, cross
buildings and distribution structures. Most of these
structures are thin-walled and subject to complex forms of
stress. As a result, destruction of one such structure by an
extreme weather event could have serious impacts on the
entire project. Therefore, the SNWTP is particularly
sensitive and vulnerable to climate change.
Climate change is likely to have a negative impact on
hydraulic engineering projects. For example, a reduction
in river discharge will lead to increased salinity and
conductivity of water body. In addition, climate change has
resulted in increases in sulfur dioxide and other acidic gases
in the atmosphere; and approximately 30% areas of China
are now affected by acid rain. In southeast coastal areas,
increases in the sea level and frequent sea tides with
increased levels of salinity could aggravate erosion damage
to concrete structures of hydraulic projects.
Significant increases in the intensity and frequency of
extreme weather events, such as droughts, cold waves, and
freezing could also have a direct effect on hydraulic
engineering projects. For example, a long-lasting drought
or a decline in annual average air moisture could lead to
greater number of cracks appearing in hydraulic concrete
materials and structures in humid areas. Similarly, extended
cold waves could have adverse effects on hydraulic mass
and thin-walled structures. For instance, in the beginning
of 2008, southern China encountered the lowest
temperatures recorded to date, and sleet and freezing
destroyed many structures. Based on incomplete public
reports regarding the cold waves, the direct economic loss
for the water industry in Hunan, Guizhou, Sichuan, Guangxi,
and Hubei provinces and Chongqing city was 5.87 109
RMB, approximately accounting for 5.3% of the total loss
reported by the Civil Administration Department in 2008.
Large-scale water conservation projects are the
primary structural measures being conducted to optimize
the use and allocation of water resources in China.
Generally, the period required for hydraulic engineering
construction projects is quite long; therefore, hydraulic
engineering structures in the construction and operation
periods should be designed to resist the effects of various
extreme climates. Accordingly, it is necessary to develop
effective measures that ensure the safety of hydraulic
engineering projects providing flood control and water
supply.
5 Conclusions and discussion
Climate change has recently drawn a great deal of
public interests as an important global environmental issue.
China is prone to many natural disasters, such as floods
and droughts. Additionally, it is currently undergoing rapid
socio-economic develop-ment, which has exacerbated
ecological problems and environmental issues.
Climate change has already threatened the water
security of China. Under global warming, the intensity of
floods and droughts in China has increased, while the
discharge from six large rivers has generally declined,
especially from the Haihe River and Liaohe River. Increased
sea levels are also threatening the coastal flood defense
system and altering the ecological environment in estuarine
systems through sea water intrusion. Furthermore, future
increased temperature and drought will likely affect the
durability of hydraulic engineering projects designed to
address these issues. It is important to note that the
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Zhang Jianyun et al.: Impact of Climate Change on Water Security in China
aforementioned changes in floods, river discharge, and
natural disasters resulted not only from climate change, but
also from the combined effects of many factors including
anthropogenic activities.
It is expected that climate change characterized by
increased temperatures will continue. Therefore, it is
essential to pay attention to the issues of water security
under global warming, to enhance scientific assessment,
mitigation and adaptation of water security to climate
change, and to provide scientific supports for China’s water
security guarantee.
[6]
[7]
[8]
Acknowledgement
The paper is financially supported by National Nonprofit
Research Programme on Water (No. 200801001).
[9]
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