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M&L 847 Analytical Methods in Marketing Spring Quarter 2009 MW 3:30 pm – 5:18 pm, Gerlach 365 Instructor: Larry M. Robinson 636 Fisher Hall Ph.: 614-292-0680 Email: [email protected] Office Hours: Monday & Wednesday, 10 to 2, Tuesday 3 to 5, & by appointment Course Description: Marketing research is an organized way of developing and providing information for decision making purposes. The quality of the information depends on the care exercised in executing the various steps of the marketing research process. The steps include problem formulation, research design, data collection, data analysis, and reporting of findings. Emphasis will be given to secondary and primary research methods, including qualitative and quantitative tools. The course is focused on a managerial perspective for identifying marketing information in a cost effective and timely way to assist managers to address substantive marketing problems. Examples of problems and opportunities considered in this course include: marketing research methods/processes for analysis of marketing problems (Goldlion case) measurement of quality and customer satisfaction (The Coop case) ethnographic research determine how a product/service fits into a customer’s life (Peapod case) marketing research in industrial design (Oxo International case) trade-off research methods to determine what customers value most (Clark Equipment case) methods to simulate/forecast sales potential for a new product (Nestle’s Contadina Pizza case) marketing research in scenario analysis for a new product (Zenith HDTV case) lead user research methodology for new product design breakthroughs (3M Corp. case) For each of these research methods there will be a case, a reading, and for several of the research methods there will be a guest speaker for the session following our discussion of concepts and a case.. Course Objectives: 1. To develop ability to define problem and opportunities so that research can be used to improve decisions made by marketing managers 2. To develop a fundamental understanding of information sources and uses in decision making by marketing managers 3. To introduce qualitative and quantitative research methods, including design considerations associated with each method 4. To understand data analysis techniques to develop fact-based findings and recommendations needed to improve decisions made by marketing managers The course is aimed at the manager who is the user of marketing research and who is responsible for determining the scope and direction of research conducted by the company. How we will achieve the objectives: We will use a combination of readings, cases, guest lectures, class discussion, a group case consulting report and three projects to achieve the objectives. The course is organized by topics, including: marketing research overview/research design typical marketing research subjects basic research methods, secondary research, data mining, focus groups, depth interviews, surveys, and trade-off choice analysis techniques specialized research methods, such as lead user research, ethnographic research, customer communities, and virtual focus groups. There will be four deliverables in this course, including: one group case consulting report, one group secondary research assignment, one individual secondary project and one group project. The group case consulting report will be done by a three person team for one of the cases to be discussed in this course. The group secondary research assignment will be done by a three person team. The project purpose is to use one of two dunnhumby data bases to do an analysis of a product or customer type within the Kroger Plus Card data bases provided to us for our use. This is a classic example of using data which already exist to analyze problems and/or opportunities The individual project will use secondary sources to identify information about a specific marketing problem or opportunity. The group project will be done by a three person team. The group project will focus on the entire research process from problem identification to research design, to data collection, data analysis, summary of findings, and presentation of recommendations. The course site on Carmen includes articles and notes about marketing research and slides from your instructor and slides from guest presentations. The home page of the course web site will be updated following each class session to provide guidance on preparation for the next session of the course. Grading: The course has 120 possible points. Your highest 100 points will be used to determine your grade. Grade components include: Class Contribution: 20 points Group case consulting report 20 points Individual secondary project 20 points Group data mining project…..20 points Team project 20 points Final exam 20 points Total: 120 points Your grade will be modified by dropping the lowest 20 points to get your highest 100 points. If your lowest score is in class contribution, it will count as 0% as opposed to 20%. If your lowest score is on the assigned group case analysis, it will count as 0% as opposed to 20%. If your lowest score is for the group secondary data analysis project, it will count as 0% as opposed to 20%. If your lowest score is for the individual secondary project, it will count as 0% as opposed to 20%. If your lowest score is on the team project, it will count as 0% instead of 20%. If your lowest score is on the final exam, it will count as 0% as opposed to 20%. The final grade will be determined by your highest 100 points with this breakdown: >93%=A 90 to 92.99$=A87 to 88.99=B+ 84 to 86.99=B <84=BEach student team will write a consulting report for one of the cases to be discussed in class. The teams will be formed by students after the first class session. The assigned case for your individual consulting report will be given to your team at the second class session. Class contribution: Three criteria will be used in reaching a judgment about your class contribution: 1. Depth and Quality of Contribution The most important dimension of class contribution concerns what it is you are saying. A high quality comment reveals depth of insight, rigorous use of case evidence, consistency of argument, and realism. Depth of insight—good comments are never trivial or obvious. They are not mere facts. They are facts in conjunction with one another, bringing the class to a deeper level of understanding Rigorous use of case evidence—assertions must be supported to be powerful. You should constantly by looking to use qualitative or quantitative case information and analyses to diagnose the problem, to support your position, or to challenge someone else’s conclusion and action plans. Consistency—reflects the degree to which your argument is tied together. Realistic implications—not every comment should be about the action plan. However, useful comments tend to have implications for action. To perform well on these criteria, it is important you come to class with a definite action plan and be prepared to help your classmates appreciate the appropriateness of your plan. 2. Moving Your Peers’ Understanding Forward Great ideas can be lost through poor presentation. A high quality presentation of ideas must consider the relevance and timing of comments, and the flow and content of the ensuing class discussion. It demands comments be concise and clear, conveyed with a spirit of involvement in the discussion at hand. Relevance—concerns the timing, fit, and placement of your comments. A relevant contribution joins seamlessly with previous comments to build a coherent, focused discussion. Irrelevant comments (either by topic or timing) can cause the discussion to digress through previously charted grounds, or to change focus prematurely, resulting in disjointed communication and a fragmented learning experience. Effective listening, a good sense of timing, and a willingness to either integrate the work of others or challenge their ideas are the skills that lead to relevance. Occasionally, someone makes a comment that changes the course of discussion. This can be effective too, but only if the comment is properly timed. Clarity and Conciseness—clarity involves speaking with urgency, vividness, and persuasiveness. To be concise, make your best point in the shortest possible time. A long comment is not by definition a good comment. Similarly, a good point buried in two poor points, tends to get lost. Involvement—concerns the energy, interest, and enthusiasm you bring to class. Involvement shows in thoughtful listening, concentration, tracking of the discussion, and a poised readiness to contribute selectively. Involvement is discriminating: having a hand in the air regardless of the question posed or the topical discussion underway signals you are not involved. However, noticing when class discussion has gotten bogged down on a small point and finding a constructive way to move the discussion forward often is a valuable form of involvement. 3. Frequency Frequency refers to the attainment of a threshold quantity of contributions that is sufficient for making a reliable assessment of comment quality. The logic is simple: if contributions are too few, one cannot reliably assess the quality of your remarks. However, once threshold quantity has been achieved, simply increasing the number of times you talk does not automatically improve your evaluation. Beyond threshold, it is the quality of your comments that must improve. In particular, one must be especially careful that in claiming more than your fair share of “airtime”, that quality is not sacrificed for quantity. Finally, your attempts at participation should not be such that the instructor must “go looking for you”. You should be attempting to get into the debate on a regular basis. The group case consulting report is based on analysis of a case which will be discussed in class. You will do a problem definition, will make recommendations to the decision maker, will support the recommendations, including identification of risk and risk mitigation strategies, will explain why competing alternatives were not recommended, and will include implementation guidance for the recommendations. The group secondary data mining assignment purpose is to develop a research question and analyze customer or product data to develop insights that lead to recommendations for the product brand manager or category manager or Kroger store manager to improve top line and / or bottom line results. You may use either of two data sets from dunnhumbyUS. A secondary research analysis of either data set requires developing a hypothesis which can be tested with the data set. One data set has 2,500 Kroger Plus card users (52 weeks of data). The other data set has product sales data at store level (400 stores for one year). The individual assignment will be a secondary research analysis on a problem or opportunity faced by a marketing manager. Your assignment is to identify information that already exists about the problem or opportunity and to summarize the existing information to make it useful to a marketing manager who faces the problem or opportunity. Your individual assignment can be a review of secondary data for a product category. You will use information from such sources as Mintel, Factiva, Lexis-Nexis, or other sources for information about what is “hot” and what is “not”. This assignment will be discussed at the second class session on April 1. The team assignment will be a research project that requires data collection, either survey or experimental, from respondents. You will need to gather some data; however time and money constraints will limit the amount of data your group actually collects. You will use whatever data you are able to develop to simulate your final results. Your problem should be chosen by the third session of the course (April 6). Your team will have three team members. The final report from your team will include a written and oral presentation including: Executive Summary Intro with description of problem, statement of research purpose and research objective Description and justification of the research strategy Brief outline of the data gathering process and analysis done with the data Discussion of key findings (from your simulated results), recommendations and conclusions, including limitations of the study The report and group presentation will be judged on content, quality of research, and writing quality. A sample report will be posted on Carmen. An evaluation sheet used in grading the written reports will also be posted on Carmen. The class schedule for the course: March 31: Intro to course. Reading: “Marketing Research: Listen and Learn”, Chapter 3, Marketer’s Toolkit: The 10 Strategies You Need To Succeed (Harvard Business School Press, 2006 (posted on Carmen) Case Study: Goldlion: Winning Over Hong Kong’s HIP Generation HKU758 Reading: Marketing Research Industry Sample Proposal (posted on Carmen) April 1: Secondary Research capabilities at Fisher College of Business Library; discussion of individual secondary project possibilities Guest Speaker: Meri Meredith, Business Librarian, Fisher College of Business April 6: Research Methods Using Data Mining of Existing Secondary Data Guest Speaker: Matt Nitzberg, dunnhumby US April 8: Intro to Qualitative and Quantitative Primary Research Reading: Fareena Sultan, “Marketing Research”, Harvard Note 9-592-013 Case Study: The Coop: Market Research, Harvard Case 9-599-113 April 13: So You Want to Do A Focus Group? Guest Speaker: Marty Saperstein, CEO, Saperstein and Associates April 15: Ethnographic Marketing Research: Reading: Jennifer McFarland, “Margaret Mead Meets Consumer Fieldwork”, Harvard Management Update Newsletter, 2001. Article Reprint Number: U0108C Case Study: Relating to Peapod: The Role Peapod Plays in the Lives of its Customers, Harvard Case 9-502-050 April 20: Sales Forecasting Scenarios Case Study: Nestle’s Refrigerated Foods: Contadina Pasta & Pizza (A), Harvard Case 9-595-035 April 22: Sales Forecasting Scenarios Guest Speaker, Joseph Sebranek, Director, Client Consulting, BASES, A.C. Nielsen Company accompanied by associate: Paul Lavelle April 27: The Role of a Marketing Research Department in a Consumer Durable Goods Company Case Study: Zenith: Marketing Research for HDTV, Harvard Case 9-591-025 April 29: The Role of a Marketing Research Department in a Financial Services Company Guest Speaker, Harlan Wahrman, Director, Marketing Research, Northwestern Mutual Life Insurance Company May 4: The Role of a Marketing Research Department in a CPG company Guest Speaker: Paul Nichols, Senior Marketing Research Analyst, The Scotts Company May 6: Trade-off Analysis Applied to Marketing Research: Reading: Robert J. Dolan, “Conjoint Analysis: A Manager’s Guide”, Harvard Business Note 9-590059 Case Study: Clark Material Handling Group-Overseas: Brazilian Product Strategy, Harvard Case 9590-081 May 11: The Role of Marketing Research in Industrial Design Case: Oxo International, Harvard Case 9-697-007 May 13: The Role of Marketing Research in Industrial Design Guest Speaker: Chris Rockwell, CEO, Lextant Research May 18: Marketing Research in Industrial Design Guest Speaker: Raj Shroff, Business Director, Fitch and Joe Moya, Studio Director, Product Development, Fitch May 20: Lead User Research Methods Reading: Scott D. Anthony, “Let the Users Take the Lead”, Strategy & Innovation, May-June, 2005, pp 3-5. Harvard Article Reprint Number S0505E Article: Stefan Thomke and Ashok Nimgade, “Note on Lead User Research” Harvard Business School Note 9-699-014 Case Study: Innovation at 3M Corporation, Harvard Case 9-699-012 May 25: Memorial Day Holiday May 27: The Role of a Full Service Marketing Research Supplier Guest Speaker: John Gongos, CEO Gongos Associates—a top 50 Marketing Research Firm June 1: Presentations, Group Projects June 3 Presentations: Group Projects June 8-11 Final Exam - Date and Time TBD Discussion questions for cases: March 31: Goldlion: Winning Over Hong Kong’s HIP Generation: 1. What marketing management problem(s) does Goldlion have in 2007 in Hong Kong? 2. What stages do new customers go though on the path to becoming loyal to a company’s products or services using the Awareness Interest Trial Repeat model? 3. What information does Goldlion need to understand each of the stages? 4. Imagine yourself as the research manager at Goldlion. Write a research proposal for Goldlion. See “Marketing Research Industry Sample Proposal” on Carmen site as a guide. Include: research approach (qualitative/quantitative), research methods (focus groups, depth interviews, surveys on line or telephone), and sampling frame(s) (targets, sample size, sample selection) 5. Design an interview guide for an in depth interview, discussion guide for a focus group and questionnaire for a survey based on your proposal in question 4. April 8 The Coop: 1. Does The Coop need to invest in marketing research? 2. How much should The Coop spend if they choose to invest in marketing research? 3. Which programs should they fund? April 15 Relating to Peapod: 1. What was the Research Objective of the Peapod ethnographic study? What research questions were explored in the study? 2. What was the research design? How were subjects selected? What information was developed about each subject? 3. What did Peapod learn about Beatrice, Lester, Mitch/Clarisse, Veronique, and Leticia? 4. What can/should Peapod do with the information gained in this study? April 20 Nestles Refrigerated Foods: Contadina Pizza (A): 1. What were the research objectives of the pre-BASES, BASES I, and BASES II studies? 2. How did the BASES research fit in with the Nestles product development process? 3. What other market research did Contadina do during the product development process for the pizza product? What were the results? 4. What were the results of the BASES studies and how were the results used by Contadina in the product launch? 5. Should Stephen Cunliffe launch a Pizza product? If so, which option? How large of a market should he expect? What market share could he expect? April 27 Zenith: Marketing Research for HDTV: 1. What was the research objective given to Bruce Huber by CEO Jerry Pearlman? 2. How much of existing information about TV buyers can be used to assess the market for HDTV? 3. What are the forecasts for HDTV demand for 1992-2000? How to define pessimistic, most likely, and optimistic scenarios? How to use historical information about other innovations to help forecast adoption rate? 4. Should Zenith do the aspect ratio study? 5. What additional research should be done to assess the market potential and consumer preference for HDTV? May 6 Clark Material Handling Group: 1. What was the objective of this research project with John Morton Company? 2. What was the research design? 3. What were the results of the research? 4. What should David Richards recommend to senior management at Clark? May 11 Oxo International: 1. Why had Oxo outsourced its industrial design process for new products? 2. Why did CEO Paul Saxton think it “might be time to rethink the make or buy decision at OXO”? 3. What was the relationship with Smart Design? How well did the relationship work for Oxo? What issues, if any, need attention? 4. What would you recommend to CEO Saxton? May 20 Innovation at 3M: 1. How has the Medical Surgical Markets Division (MSMD) of 3M analyzed market opportunities in the past as they developed new products? 2. What is Lead User Research and how does this methodology differ from what the MSMD has done in the past? 3. Review the four stages of the Lead User Research process for this project, including the four recommendations. 4. What should the team recommend? Assignment for Team Research Project The project will be implemented and a report written by your three person team. You can choose your own problem/situation/topic. However, you must use a field research strategy that requires data collection from respondents. You will need to gather some data, however, given time and cost constraints you will limit the amount of data you actually collect. You will use the data you collect to simulate your final results. The problem should be chosen and approved by April 8. The reasons for my approval are to make sure the project deals with a marketing decision and that there is no overlap with other team projects. Topics could deal with such topics as: Concept research for a new product or service Channel development (existing or new channels) Market assessment for a product or service brand or category Pricing study for new or existing product or service Positioning or repositioning of a brand Market segmentation study –such as segment identification, benefits sought be specific segments, which segments are best fit for the product or service You could define a problem or opportunity based on the work experience of a team member. Or you could develop a project based on some development reported in the local or national business news. After approval of your team project topic, you will write a 2-3 page report, briefly describing the problem/opportunity, objectives of the market research, and the research strategy. That report is due by April 15. An interim report, summarizing work to date and tasks to be completed will be due April 29. The final report will be due on June 8. Your team will deliver a class presentation on June 1 or on June 3. The written report will follow the outline that is shown in the example project which is posted on Carmen. The example project includes: Executive summary (maximum of two pages) Intro with description of the problem/opportunity, statement of the research purpose, and objective of the research A description and justification of the research strategy A brief outline of the planned data-analysis Discussion of your key findings (from your simulated results), managerial recommendations and conclusions, including limitations of the study The body of the report should be a maximum of 20 pages plus any appendices or exhibits. The report will be judged in terms of content, quality of research, and writing quality. Your report will be graded using this evaluation sheet: PLEASE MAKE SURE YOUR TEAM CLEARLY MARKS EACH OF THE FOLLOWING EIGHT SECTIONS OF YOUR REPORT 1. Executive Summary (max 2 pages) 2. Introduction with a description of the problem/opportunity, a statement of the research purpose and objective(s) of the research 3. Secondary Data and Qualitative Analysis, including secondary data used and how it helped you in planning your research. 4. Quantitative Research, including interview method (personal, telephone, web, mall intercept, or other method) and justification for the method chosen 5. Sampling Plan and Sample Size, including sampling method used and why it was used 6. Questionnaire, including initial version, pretest results, and final version 7. Data analysis, including analysis plan, actual analysis (question summaries, charts, exhibits) and how well the analysis addresses the research purpose and objectives 8. Discussion of results and conclusions, including communication of quantitative results in words Each of these eight sections will have a maximum score of 12 points. In addition, a maximum of four points will be awarded for overall style, flow of paper, and consistency of writing. So, the final grade will be a maximum score of 100 points.