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Stakeholders driven scenarios of future land use and cover changes in Tanzania Claudia Capitani, Neil Burgess, Isaac Malugu, Robert Marchant, Boniface Mbilinyi, Kusaga Mukama,,Pantaleo Munishi The goals of scenario analysis in the WWF REDD+ project in Tanzania: • Tanzania is lacking information on the potential impact of Redd+ interventions, as far as concern carbon emission levels and potential reduction. • Tanzania is characterised by fast growing economy and rapid social changes, and past trends may not be adequate to project future land use/cover changes; • In this context, scenario analysis could help to: • envisage future trends and land use change dynamics at the same time giving the opportunity to highlight and discuss on opportunities and challenges for Redd+ implementation; • inform decision makers and other stakeholders by exploring how indigenous and exogenous factors can lead to competition for different land uses and consequently to land cover changes. • prioritise actions and investments in relation to likely future pressures on carbon stock and other ecosystem services at national scale. COMPLEXITY………. • AGRICULTURE • FORESTRY • ENERGY CARBON MARKET CLIMATE CHANGE • POPULATION GROWTH • GDP • HUMAN DIMENSION OTHER POLICIES • WOOD FUEL • SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE • LIVESTOCK GRAZING • LOGGING • MINING • • • • DEFORESTATION DEGRADATION CONSERVATION SUSTAINABLE MANGAEMENT RESOLVING COMPLEXITY………. • POPULATION GROWTH • LIVELIHOOD MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTORS ANALYSIS • • • • • SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE WOOD FUEL LIVESTOCK GRAZING LOGGING MINING LAND COVER CHANGE MATRIX SOCIOECONOMIC FACTORS LAND USES • • • • CLIMATE CHANGE • CHANGE IN CROP SUITABILTY • CHANGE IN PRODUCTIVITY DEFORESTATION DEGRADATION CONSERVATION SUSTAINABLE MANGAEMENT REDD+ OTHER POLICIES KEY ELEMENTS OF THE SCENARIOS………. Current land use/cover BASE YEAR 2010 • SPATIAL INDICATOR OF LIKELIHOOD OF CHANGE • LAND DEMAND WHICH CHANGES? WHERE? HOW MUCH? BAU SCENARIO 2025 ALTERNATIVE SCENARIO 2025 Future land use/cover LULC basemap 2010 38% of surface is protected 33.804.045 ha Forest&Woodland 32.244.077 ha Cultivated land: intensive + shifting Scenarios boundary conditions – Baseline: 2010, Time horizon: 2025 SCENARIOS KAMA KAWAIDA/Business as usual MATAZAMIO MAZURI/Green economy POPULATION POPULATION Demand for agriculture land Demand for agriculture land Livestock pressure Livestock pressure Demand of charcoal for energy Energy dependency on charcoal PFM, PES & REDD+ and other schemes are not adequately implemented PFM, PES & REDD+ and other schemes are efficiently implemented Deforestation and forest degradation Deforestation and forest degradation FROM A STORY TO A MAP………. GLOBAL/NATIONAL CHALLENGES (DEFORESTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, DEVELOPMENT) SCENARIOS GENERAL DEFINITIONS NATIONAL POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND TRENDS ? WHY “STAKEHOLDERS DRIVEN SCENARIOS”………. • Local factors could strongly affect land dynamics; therefore there is a need to incorporate sub-national perspectives into a national figure; • Land use/cover changes are highly dependent on socioeconomic factors nonetheless they are often predicted through bio-physical variables; a participatory and integrated approach can strengthen the link between socio-economic factors and spatial predictors; • Furthermore, participatory methods enhance the sense of ownership and agreement by the local communities on the final outcomes. Stakeholders consultations • 189 participants from 7 zones • 89% Men • 51% delegates of Local Governments (Regions and Districts) • 49% representing NGOs, CSOs, private business WORKSHOP ZONES WORKSHOP ZONES CRITICALITIES • Is the scale adequate to capture “local” dynamics? • Is the “zonal” subsampling reflecting socio-economic and/or ecological patterns? • Are all relevant stakeholders well represented? • How to scale up/scale out to the national level? STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVEMENT GLOBAL/NATION AL CHALLENGES (DEFORESTATION, CLIMATE CHANGE, DEVELOPMENT) STAKEHOLDERS WS – TASK 1 TRENDS OF ECONOMIC SECTORS WITH GREATER IMPACTS ON LAND SCENARIOS NARRATIVES: FUTURE TRENDS OF ECONOMIC SECTORS SCENARIOS GENERAL DEFINITIONS NATIONAL POLICIES, STRATEGIES AND TRENDS TRADE-OFF BETWEEN ECONOMIC GROWTH AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT IMPACTS ON LAND USES and GENERAL TRENDS OF CHANGE OUTCOMES • SCENARIO NARRATIVES ENRICHED WITH REGIONAL DETAILS • MAIN SECTORS AFFECTING LAND COVER CHANGES • RANKING OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT SECTORS STAKEHOLDERS WS – TASK 2 (MAP ANALYSIS AND LAND COVER CHANGE MATRIX) OUTPUT 2 • LIKELIHOOD OF LAND COVER CLASS CHANGES • DRIVERS • SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGES BUSINESS AS USUAL 2025 GREEN ECONOMY 2025 FUTURE LAND COVER MAPS PROS: • PARTICIPATION & OWNERSHIP • MULTI-DIMENSION APPROACH • LOCAL INSIGHTS AND DETAILS RICHNESS • MULTIPLE OUTPUTS CONS: • DEMANDING PROCESS • DATA ANALYSIS & INTERPRETATION: HOW HARMONIZING VIEWS? • HOW TO TRANSLATE QUALITATIVE/SEMIQUANTITATIVE INTO SPATIALLY EXPLICIT INFO? • HOW MUCH ARE THE STAKEHOLDERS’ OPINIONS influenced by external or internal dynamics? TASK 1 Economic sectors trends Economy RICH ECO + / ENV - ECO + / ENV + Environment DEGRADED HEALTHY ECO - / ENV - ECO - / ENV + POOR YOU MAY DECIDE TO ADD TICKS ON THE AXES Focus group discussion • What is behind the positioning of the sector? • What is the trade/off between economy and environment (land use)? • What is the current situation? What will happen? Increase/decrease, improvement/ worsening • What could move the sector to the BAU position? • What could move the sector to the GE position? TASK 1 Economic sectors trends RICH Economy Environment HEALTHY DEGRADED POOR ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative CENTRAL BAU ECO/ENV GE ECO/ENV EASTERN BAU ECO/ENV GE ECO/ENV LAKE BAU ECO/ENV GE ECO/ENV NORTHERN BAU GE S_HIGHLANDS BAU GE SOUTHERN BAU GE WESTERN BAU ECO/ENV ECO/ENV ECO/ENV ECO/ENV ECO/ENV ECO/ENV AGRICULTURE LIVESTOCK ENERGY^ FORESTRY* MINING INFRASTRU CTURES POSITIVE TREND NEGATIVE TREND ECO/ENV GE ECO/ENV MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS visualisation AGRICULTURE BAU ( 1 > 7 Increasing degradation from Current to BAU) AGRICULTURE GE (1 > 7 Increasing improvement from Current to GE) 7 6 5 RK_AGRI_GE 4 RK_AGRI_BAU 3 AGRICULTURE GE 1 AGRICULTURE GE 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Task 2 Land cover changes Task 2 Land cover changes Land cover change matrix 1) SIMPLIFICATION: LIKELIHOOD > 1 2) BALANCE = GAINS - LOSSES Task 2 Land cover changes DRIVERS IMPACT 1) SIMPLIFICATION: LIKELIHOOD > 1 2) INDEX = (LIKELIHOOD/RANKING) Task 2 Land cover changes DEFINITIONS: Only for the purpose of this analysis CHANGES FROM DEGRADATION DEFORESTATION •MONTANE&LOWLAND FOREST Closed wood, Open wood, Bush CULTIVATED LAND •CLOSED WOODLAND Open wood, Bush, Grass CULTIVATED LAND •OPEN WOODLAND Bush, Grass CULTIVATED LAND •BUSHLAND CULTIVATED LAND Grass •GRASSLAND NOTE THAT THESE LAND COVER CLASSES INCLUDE ALSO SMALL HUMAN SETTLEMENTS WHICH CAN NOT BE MAPPED AS BUILT-UP AREAS AT THIS RESOLUTION MAIN DRIVERS OF DEFORESTATION (BAU) MAIN DRIVERS OF DEFORESTATION (BAU) MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST DEGRADATION (BAU) MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST DEGRADATION (BAU) MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST IMPROVEMENT(GE) scenario GREEN ECONOMY Sum of Index2 Column Labels Row Labels Central Eastern Lake Land Management 2.8 6.0 Law enforcement 3.0 1.0 conservation strategy PFM programme 0.5 Afforestation Fire (control) 8.0 technology improvement 1.0 Legal protection 1.0 TFS Community awareness 1.3 Forest Management plan 3.0 Farming Practices 0.7 Alternative energy sources political will 1.0 Participatory NR management 2.0 Livestock practices 0.3 1.5 TFF Farmland abandonment REDD incentive schemes 1.0 Northern 2.3 6.0 1.0 3.0 10.3 2.5 3.0 0.2 2.0 0.3 5.0 0.5 1.0 0.8 3.0 0.5 South_highlandsSouthern Western 8.7 2.0 9.1 4.0 4.7 Grand Total 4.5 2.5 3.0 4.5 3.5 6.0 5.5 5.0 5.0 4.0 5.0 2.0 1.3 1.0 1.5 4.5 4.2 0.7 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.7 0.2 1.7 0.7 0.5 34.6 26.0 11.0 9.9 8.5 8.3 1.0 1.5 1.7 1.5 1.5 MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST IMPROVEMENT(GE) Task 2 Land cover changes SPATIAL MULTI-CRITERIA = SPATIAL PREDICTORS + SPATIAL LOCATIONS ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK 2010 - 2025 NATIONAL SCALE Population growth, Production/Consumption growth Farming Biomass energy Staple, cash FORESTRY Charcoal, fuelwood Forest Products & NTFP Calibration with Stakeholders’ evaluation of sector trends and secondary information by zones ZONES SCALE WOOD EXTRACTION FARMLAND EXPANSION Forest clearing provides wood for charcoal Calibration with stakeholders’ evaluation on likelihood of changes (by zones) and local spatial distribution LOCAL SCALE LAND COVER CHANGES IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS SERVICES LIVESTOCK MINING INFRASTRUCTURES Land use change model: results on land use change BAU Land use change model: preliminary results on land use change GE