Download SCENARIOS_2

Stakeholders driven scenarios of future
land use and cover changes in Tanzania
Claudia Capitani, Neil Burgess, Isaac Malugu, Robert Marchant,
Boniface Mbilinyi, Kusaga Mukama,,Pantaleo Munishi
The goals of scenario analysis in the WWF REDD+
project in Tanzania:
• Tanzania is lacking information on the potential impact of Redd+
interventions, as far as concern carbon emission levels and
potential reduction.
• Tanzania is characterised by fast growing economy and rapid
social changes, and past trends may not be adequate to project
future land use/cover changes;
• In this context, scenario analysis could help to:
• envisage future trends and land use change dynamics at the
same time giving the opportunity to highlight and discuss on
opportunities and challenges for Redd+ implementation;
• inform decision makers and other stakeholders by exploring
how indigenous and exogenous factors can lead to competition
for different land uses and consequently to land cover changes.
• prioritise actions and investments in relation to likely future
pressures on carbon stock and other ecosystem services at
national scale.
COMPLEXITY……….
• AGRICULTURE
• FORESTRY
• ENERGY
CARBON
MARKET
CLIMATE
CHANGE
• POPULATION GROWTH
• GDP
• HUMAN DIMENSION
OTHER
POLICIES
• WOOD FUEL
• SUBSISTENCE
AGRICULTURE
• LIVESTOCK
GRAZING
• LOGGING
• MINING
•
•
•
•
DEFORESTATION
DEGRADATION
CONSERVATION
SUSTAINABLE
MANGAEMENT
RESOLVING COMPLEXITY……….
• POPULATION GROWTH
• LIVELIHOOD
MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTORS
ANALYSIS
•
•
•
•
•
SUBSISTENCE AGRICULTURE
WOOD FUEL
LIVESTOCK GRAZING
LOGGING
MINING
LAND COVER CHANGE MATRIX
SOCIOECONOMIC
FACTORS
LAND
USES
•
•
•
•
CLIMATE
CHANGE
• CHANGE IN CROP
SUITABILTY
• CHANGE IN
PRODUCTIVITY
DEFORESTATION
DEGRADATION
CONSERVATION
SUSTAINABLE
MANGAEMENT
REDD+
OTHER
POLICIES
KEY ELEMENTS OF THE SCENARIOS……….
Current land
use/cover
BASE YEAR
2010
• SPATIAL INDICATOR
OF LIKELIHOOD OF
CHANGE
• LAND DEMAND
WHICH
CHANGES?
WHERE?
HOW MUCH?
BAU
SCENARIO
2025
ALTERNATIVE
SCENARIO
2025
Future land
use/cover
LULC basemap 2010
38% of surface is
protected
33.804.045 ha
Forest&Woodland
32.244.077 ha Cultivated
land: intensive + shifting
Scenarios boundary conditions – Baseline: 2010, Time horizon: 2025
SCENARIOS
KAMA KAWAIDA/Business as usual
MATAZAMIO MAZURI/Green economy
POPULATION
POPULATION
Demand for agriculture land
Demand for agriculture land
Livestock pressure
Livestock pressure
Demand of charcoal for energy
Energy dependency on charcoal
PFM, PES & REDD+ and other schemes
are not adequately implemented
PFM, PES & REDD+ and other schemes
are efficiently implemented
Deforestation and forest degradation
Deforestation and forest degradation
FROM A STORY TO A MAP……….
GLOBAL/NATIONAL
CHALLENGES
(DEFORESTATION,
CLIMATE CHANGE,
DEVELOPMENT)
SCENARIOS
GENERAL
DEFINITIONS
NATIONAL
POLICIES,
STRATEGIES
AND TRENDS
?
WHY “STAKEHOLDERS DRIVEN SCENARIOS”……….
• Local factors could strongly affect land dynamics;
therefore there is a need to incorporate sub-national
perspectives into a national figure;
• Land use/cover changes are highly dependent on socioeconomic factors nonetheless they are often predicted
through bio-physical variables; a participatory and
integrated approach can strengthen the link between
socio-economic factors and spatial predictors;
• Furthermore, participatory methods enhance the sense
of ownership and agreement by the local communities
on the final outcomes.
Stakeholders consultations
• 189 participants from 7
zones
• 89% Men
• 51% delegates of
Local Governments
(Regions and Districts)
• 49% representing
NGOs, CSOs, private
business
WORKSHOP ZONES
WORKSHOP ZONES
CRITICALITIES
• Is the scale adequate to
capture “local” dynamics?
• Is the “zonal” subsampling
reflecting socio-economic
and/or ecological patterns?
• Are all relevant stakeholders
well represented?
• How to scale up/scale out to
the national level?
STAKEHOLDERS INVOLVEMENT
GLOBAL/NATION
AL CHALLENGES
(DEFORESTATION,
CLIMATE CHANGE,
DEVELOPMENT)
STAKEHOLDERS WS –
TASK 1
TRENDS OF ECONOMIC
SECTORS WITH GREATER
IMPACTS ON LAND
SCENARIOS NARRATIVES:
FUTURE TRENDS OF ECONOMIC
SECTORS
SCENARIOS
GENERAL
DEFINITIONS
NATIONAL
POLICIES,
STRATEGIES
AND TRENDS
TRADE-OFF BETWEEN
ECONOMIC GROWTH AND
ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT
IMPACTS ON LAND USES and
GENERAL TRENDS OF CHANGE
OUTCOMES
• SCENARIO NARRATIVES ENRICHED WITH REGIONAL
DETAILS
• MAIN SECTORS AFFECTING LAND COVER CHANGES
• RANKING OF THE IMPACT OF DIFFERENT SECTORS
STAKEHOLDERS WS –
TASK 2
(MAP ANALYSIS AND
LAND COVER CHANGE
MATRIX)
OUTPUT 2
• LIKELIHOOD OF LAND COVER CLASS
CHANGES
• DRIVERS
• SPATIAL DISTRIBUTION OF CHANGES
BUSINESS AS USUAL 2025
GREEN ECONOMY 2025
FUTURE LAND COVER MAPS
PROS:
• PARTICIPATION & OWNERSHIP
• MULTI-DIMENSION APPROACH
• LOCAL INSIGHTS AND
DETAILS RICHNESS
• MULTIPLE OUTPUTS
CONS:
• DEMANDING PROCESS
• DATA ANALYSIS &
INTERPRETATION: HOW
HARMONIZING VIEWS?
• HOW TO TRANSLATE
QUALITATIVE/SEMIQUANTITATIVE INTO SPATIALLY
EXPLICIT INFO?
• HOW MUCH ARE THE
STAKEHOLDERS’ OPINIONS
influenced by external or
internal dynamics?
TASK 1 Economic sectors trends
Economy
RICH
ECO + / ENV -
ECO + / ENV +
Environment
DEGRADED
HEALTHY
ECO - / ENV -
ECO - / ENV +
POOR
YOU MAY
DECIDE TO ADD
TICKS ON THE
AXES
Focus group discussion
• What is behind the positioning of the
sector?
• What is the trade/off between
economy and environment (land
use)?
• What is the current situation? What
will happen? Increase/decrease,
improvement/ worsening
• What could move the sector to the
BAU position?
• What could move the sector to the GE
position?
TASK 1 Economic sectors trends
RICH
Economy
Environment
HEALTHY
DEGRADED
POOR
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS semi-quantitative
CENTRAL
BAU
ECO/ENV
GE
ECO/ENV
EASTERN
BAU
ECO/ENV
GE
ECO/ENV
LAKE
BAU
ECO/ENV
GE
ECO/ENV
NORTHERN
BAU
GE
S_HIGHLANDS
BAU
GE
SOUTHERN
BAU
GE
WESTERN
BAU
ECO/ENV
ECO/ENV
ECO/ENV
ECO/ENV
ECO/ENV
ECO/ENV
AGRICULTURE
LIVESTOCK
ENERGY^
FORESTRY*
MINING
INFRASTRU
CTURES
POSITIVE TREND
NEGATIVE TREND
ECO/ENV
GE
ECO/ENV
MACRO-ECONOMIC SECTORS TRENDS visualisation
AGRICULTURE BAU ( 1 > 7 Increasing degradation from Current to BAU)
AGRICULTURE GE (1 > 7 Increasing improvement from Current to GE)
7
6
5
RK_AGRI_GE
4
RK_AGRI_BAU
3
AGRICULTURE GE
1
AGRICULTURE GE
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Task 2 Land cover changes
Task 2 Land cover changes
Land cover change matrix
1) SIMPLIFICATION: LIKELIHOOD > 1
2) BALANCE = GAINS - LOSSES
Task 2 Land cover changes
DRIVERS IMPACT
1) SIMPLIFICATION: LIKELIHOOD > 1
2) INDEX =  (LIKELIHOOD/RANKING)
Task 2 Land cover changes
DEFINITIONS: Only for the purpose of this analysis
CHANGES FROM
DEGRADATION
DEFORESTATION
•MONTANE&LOWLAND FOREST
Closed wood, Open
wood, Bush
CULTIVATED LAND
•CLOSED
WOODLAND
Open wood, Bush,
Grass
CULTIVATED LAND
•OPEN WOODLAND Bush, Grass
CULTIVATED LAND
•BUSHLAND
CULTIVATED LAND
Grass
•GRASSLAND
NOTE THAT THESE LAND COVER
CLASSES INCLUDE ALSO SMALL
HUMAN SETTLEMENTS WHICH CAN
NOT BE MAPPED AS BUILT-UP
AREAS AT THIS RESOLUTION
MAIN DRIVERS OF DEFORESTATION (BAU)
MAIN DRIVERS OF DEFORESTATION (BAU)
MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST DEGRADATION (BAU)
MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST DEGRADATION (BAU)
MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST IMPROVEMENT(GE)
scenario
GREEN ECONOMY
Sum of Index2
Column Labels
Row Labels
Central
Eastern
Lake
Land Management
2.8
6.0
Law enforcement
3.0
1.0
conservation strategy
PFM programme
0.5
Afforestation
Fire (control)
8.0
technology
improvement
1.0
Legal protection
1.0
TFS
Community awareness
1.3
Forest Management
plan
3.0
Farming Practices
0.7
Alternative energy
sources
political will
1.0
Participatory NR
management
2.0
Livestock practices
0.3
1.5
TFF
Farmland abandonment
REDD
incentive schemes
1.0
Northern
2.3
6.0
1.0
3.0
10.3
2.5
3.0
0.2
2.0
0.3
5.0
0.5
1.0
0.8
3.0
0.5
South_highlandsSouthern Western
8.7
2.0
9.1
4.0
4.7
Grand Total
4.5
2.5
3.0
4.5
3.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
5.0
4.0
5.0
2.0
1.3
1.0
1.5
4.5
4.2
0.7
2.0
2.0
2.0
1.9
1.7
0.2
1.7
0.7
0.5
34.6
26.0
11.0
9.9
8.5
8.3
1.0
1.5
1.7
1.5
1.5
MAIN DRIVERS OF FOREST IMPROVEMENT(GE)
Task 2 Land cover changes
SPATIAL MULTI-CRITERIA = SPATIAL PREDICTORS + SPATIAL LOCATIONS
ANALYSIS FRAMEWORK
2010 - 2025
NATIONAL
SCALE
Population growth, Production/Consumption growth
Farming
Biomass energy
Staple, cash
FORESTRY
Charcoal,
fuelwood
Forest Products
& NTFP
Calibration with Stakeholders’ evaluation of sector
trends and secondary information by zones
ZONES
SCALE
WOOD EXTRACTION
FARMLAND EXPANSION
Forest clearing provides
wood for charcoal
Calibration with stakeholders’ evaluation on likelihood of changes (by
zones) and local spatial distribution
LOCAL
SCALE
LAND COVER CHANGES
IMPACTS ON ECOSYSTEMS SERVICES
LIVESTOCK
MINING
INFRASTRUCTURES
Land use change model: results on land use change BAU
Land use change model: preliminary results on land use change GE