Download Notes on Some studies - Department of Agricultural Economics

A tale of some studies
Edwards Aquifer
Study Focus
This study focused on the Edwards aquifer in central
Texas looking at the impacts of various features of recent
enabling legislation and water development alternatives
Impact Analysis Method The study was done using a regional impact model.
Demand curves were entered for water use by municipal
and industrial entities. The crop growth simulator EPIC
was used to load data into the model. An aquifer
simulation model was used in combination with
regression to yield results on the hydrological impacts of
different policies on the aquifer elevation, retained water
and spring flow. The model was a SPR, Integer, Price
Endogenous model.
Study Results
A variety of case study findings were generated
regarding the desirability of water marketing, the effects
of pumping limits, and an alternative pumping limits
strategy depending on water available. Methodologically
the paper shows how to link stochastic hydrological and
sector programming methods
Papers
McCarl, B.A., K.O. Keplinger, C.R. Dillon, and R.L. Williams, "Limiting Pumping from the
Edwards Aquifer: An Economic Investigation of Proposals, Water Markets and Springflow
Guarantees," Water Resources Research, 35(4), 1257-1268, 1999.
Chen, C.C., D. Gillig, and B.A. McCarl, "Effects of Climatic Change on a Water Dependent
Regional Economy: A Study of the Texas Edwards Aquifer," Climatic Change, 49, 397-409,
2001.
Gillig, D., B.A. McCarl, and F.O. Boadu, "An Economic, Hydrologic, and Environmental
Assessment of Water Management Alternative Plans for the South-Central Texas Region,"
Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 33, 1 (April ), 59-78, 2001.
Gillig, D., B.A. McCarl, L.L. Jones, and F.O. Boadu, "Economic Efficiency and Cost
Implications of Habitat Conservation: An Example in the Context of the Edwards Aquifer
Region," Water Resources Research, forthcoming, 2004.
Studies 1 (studies.pdf)
A tale of some studies
El Nino
Study Focus
Impact analysis of benefits of improved El Nino
forecasting. The study how soon tried examine the
effects of alternative ways that factoring in international
trade phenomena.
Impact Analysis Method A stochastic version of ASM was used which also
included global trade to the merger with a set of spatial
equilibrium models. The model was a SPR, Price
Endogenous model.
Study Results
El Nino forecasting was found to be quite valuable.
Factoring in international trade and the effects of El Nino
for trading partners had large implications for study
results
Paper Status
Adams, R.M., K.J. Bryant, B.A. McCarl, D.M. Legler, J.J. O'Brien, A.R. Solow, and R.F.
Weiher, "Value of Improved Long-Range Weather Information," Contemporary Economic
Policy, XIII, Number 3, 10-19, 1995.
Solow, A.R., R.M. Adams, K.J. Bryant, D.M. Legler, J.J. O'Brien, B.A. McCarl, W.I. Nayda,
and R.F. Weiher, "The Value of Improved ENSO Prediction to U. S. Agriculture," Climatic
Change, 39, 47-60, 1998.
Chen, C.C., and B.A. McCarl, "The Value of ENSO Information to Agriculture: Consideration
of Event Strength and Trade," Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Vol. 25,
no. 2 (December), 368-385, 2000.
Chen, C.C., B.A. McCarl, and H.J.S. Hill, "The Value of ENSO Information under Alternative
ENSO Phase Definitions," Climatic Change, 54, 305-325, 2002.
Chen, C.C., B.A. McCarl, and R.M. Adams, "Economic Implications of Potential Climate
Change Induced ENSO Frequency and Strength Shifts," Climatic Change, 49, 147-159,
2001.
Studies 2 (studies.pdf)
A tale of some studies
Farm program
Study Focus
Impact analysis of implications of changes in farm
program provisions. In particular we studied decoupling.
Later the decoupling strategy was used in forming the
1996 farm program.
Impact Analysis Method ASM was used. This study developed an endogenous
deficiency payment method. The model was a Price
Endogenous model.
Study Results
The results showed substantial dead weight social loss
arising to farm program provisions principally through
government payments for the target price gain. However
significant redistribution of income was found to occur
under the decoupling of the farm program. In particular
producers were shown to lose by program elimination as
were consumers. However taxpayers which largely
consist of consumers were shown to gain
Paper Status
Chang, C.C., B.A. McCarl, J.W. Mjelde, and J.W. Richardson, "Sectoral Implications of Farm
Program Modifications," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, 74, 38-49, 1992.
Chang, C.C., B.R. Eddleman, and B.A. McCarl, "Potential Benefits of Rice Variety and Water
Management Improvements in the Texas Gulf Coast," Western Journal of Agricultural
Economics, 16(2), 185-193, 1991.
Studies 3 (studies.pdf)
A tale of some studies
Global Climate Change variability
Study Focus
The implications of global climate change on the welfare
variability of the U.S. agricultural sector was analyzed
Impact Analysis Method The stochastic version of ASM was developed for this
study. The model was a SPR, Price Endogenous model.
Study Results
Consideration of welfare variability was not found to
have large effects on the estimation of the net cost of
climate change relative to an examination procedure
which did not consider variability effects.
Paper Status
Lambert, D.K., B.A. McCarl, Q. He, M.S. Kaylen, W.D. Rosenthal, C.C. Chang, and W.I.
Nayda, "Uncertain Yields in Sectoral Welfare Analysis: An Application to Global
Warming," Journal of Agricultural and Applied Economics, 27(2), 423-436, 1995.
Adams, R.M., B.A. McCarl, and L.O. Mearns, "The Effects of Spatial Scale of Climate
Scenarios on Economic Assessments: An Example from U.S. Agriculture," Climatic
Change, Vol. 60, Nos. 1-2, September I, II, 131-148, 2003.
Chen, C.C., B.A. McCarl, and R.M. Adams, "Economic Implications of Potential Climate
Change Induced ENSO Frequency and Strength Shifts," Climatic Change, 49, 147-159,
2001.
Studies 4 (studies.pdf)
A tale of some studies
Egyptian Policy Reform
Study Focus
An examination of the implications of changes in
Egyptian cotton price supports.
Impact Analysis Method A sector model was developed for Egypt expanding upon
an earlier sector model developed by others. An early
version of the Egyptian model in the GAMS model
library. The model was a Price Endogenous model.
Study Results
Cotton price reform was found to have very large
implications for cotton production. In particular a Laffer
type curve was found. Namely we considered reductions
of the implicit taxation charged when the government
bought cotton at a low price from the producers and
resold it at a much higher export price. We found if
those taxes were substantially reduced a large increase in
cotton production resulted in which actually increased
government tax receipts under a smaller tax.
Paper Status
Was presented an Egyptian conference on policy reform.
Subsequently policy was reformed by the program
later became controversial. Paper never was
published
Studies 5 (studies.pdf)
A tale of some studies
Carbon Sequestration
Study Focus
Examination of the supply curve for land that could be
converted into force tree in an effort to increase carbon
sequestration
Impact Analysis Method Used ASM’s big brother named FASOM which
encompasses the forestry and the agricultural sectors.
FASOM contains 10 ASM ten region models one for
each decade for the next hundred years. The model was
a Price Endogenous model with a mixture of unknown
life and equilibrium modeling.
Study Results
The nature of the supply curve was found to be very
dependent upon timing of the program and provisions of
the policies in the program.
Paper Status
McCarl, B.A., and U.A. Schneider, "Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in U.S. Agriculture and
Forestry," Science, Volume 294 (21 Dec), 2481-2482, 2001.
Schneider, U.A., and B.A. McCarl, "Economic Potential of Biomass Based Fuels for Greenhouse
Gas Emission Mitigation," Environmental and Resource Economics, 24(4), 291-312, 2003.
Lee, H.C., B.A. McCarl, U.A. Schneider, and C.C. Chen, "Leakage and Comparative Advantage
Implications of Agricultural Participation in Greenhouse Gas Emission Mitigation," paper
under submission to a journal, 2004.
Murray, B.C., B.A. McCarl, and H.C. Lee, "Estimating Leakage From Forest Carbon
Sequestration Programs," Land Economics, 80(1), 109-124., 2004.
Studies 6 (studies.pdf)
A tale of some studies
Crop variety improvement – Environmental linkages
Study Focus
Study arose out of a Texas-based study of the cost
benefits of crop variety improvements. The study was
designed to develop environmental implications on these
technological improvements.
Impact Analysis Method ASM was used to generate the economic impact results.
That model was a Price Endogenous model. Links within
made to the SWAT hydrological model through an
auxiliary GAMS based multiple objective model which
allocated the broad geographic ASM region crop mix
results to watersheds based on historical production
patterns in those watersheds.
Study Results
Environmental implications at the watershed level were
allowed to be simulated and found to be significant in
some cases
Paper Status
Atwood, J.D., B.A. McCarl, C.C. Chen, B.R. Eddleman, R. Srinivasan, and W.I. Nayda,
"Assessing Regional Impacts of Change: Linking Economic and Environmental Models,"
Agricultural Systems, (63) 3, 147-159, 2000.
Pattanayak, S.K., B.A. McCarl, A.J. Sommer, B.C. Murray, T. Bondelid, D. Gillig, and B.
DeAngelo, "Water Quality Co-effects of Greenhouse Gas Mitigation in US Agriculture,"
2004.
Studies 7 (studies.pdf)