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Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue • Health arguments not heard Mike Gill Co-chair Climate and Health Council Never waste a crisis Food Production Up to 2003 – Food production >x2 since 1960 – Food production per capita had grown – Food prices had fallen – Percent of undernourished fallen – But the benefits are uneven, with 850 million people still hungry – Significant environmental degradation Water 15 - 35% of irrigation withdrawals exceed supply rates and are therefore unsustainable (low to medium certainty) Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue 350m years-worth of CO2 64m (354-290m years ago) = Carboniferous …which we are burning VERY fast 150 years First Oil Well 100 years 4142 cars, 10 miles concrete road in US 50 years First commercial jet ticket NOW 650,000,000 cars 4,800,000,000 passenger flights • 205,733 kg of coal….. • 92,652,841 litres of gas…. • 156,284 litres of oil….. …….. A SECOND Billions of tonnes of CO2 25 20 15 10 5 0 1850 1875 1900 1925 1950 1975 2000 • Not only are we producing record levels of greenhouse gases, we are removing the planet’s ability to absorb them • Half of all forests have been destroyed in the 50 years prior to 2000 = 20 football pitches every minute Source: IPCC TAR (slide taken from Hadley Centre) Katrina cost as much as four years of war in Iraq: $250 BILLION WWF/ IoZ/ ZSL May 2008 LIVING PLANET INDEX “Ground-living vertebrates have declined by 25%, with most of the slump occurring since 1980. Marine species held fairly steady until the late 1990s before falling sharply to give an overall drop of 28%. Freshwater species have decreased by 25%, primarily since the late 1980s.” MASS EXTINCTION EVENTS “A 1998 survey by the American 500 million 400 million 300 million 200 million 100 million Museum of Natural History found that 70% of biologists view the present era as part of a mass extinction event, the fastest to have ever occurred.200 Some.. the million predict 360 million 65 million 444 million Triassic- of all species extinction of one-half DevonianCretaceousOrdovicianJurassic Carbiniferous Silurian in the coming decades”Tertiary 488 million 251 million CambrianOrdovician PermianTriassic We are already losing 3 species AN HOUR AND WE HAVEN’T EVEN STARTED YET… Most global health problems are ‘self inflicted’: • • • • • War Inequality Tobacco Alcohol Air pollution • • • • • Road trauma Obesity Malnutrition Physical inactivity Climate Change But climate change will soon be irreversible Although climate change can cause illness and death... - Heat-related deaths - Skin cancer and cataracts - Injuries and infectious diseases as a result of increased flooding - Respiratory disease - Insect-borne disease - Food poisoning …there are even greater risks of widespread trauma, disease and deaths through civil unrest: • • • • • • Crop failure >> famine >> deaths Water shortages >> human conflict >> deaths Mass migration >> human conflict >> deaths Economic collapse >> human conflict >> deaths Resource wars >> human conflict >> deaths Ecosystem collapse >> human conflict >> deaths India builds a 2,500-mile barrier to rival the Great Wall of China Melting glaciers in the Himalayas are wreaking havoc in Bangladesh leading to a rise in illegal migration to India. This has prompted India to build an immense border fence in attempt to block newcomers. 28 February 2006 Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue On the obesity epidemic…. ‘A more enlightened health sector would have engaged early with other sectors in relation to a foreseeable (although mostly not foreseen) crisis, reducible by intersectoral planning in relation to urban design, transport systems, food production, and marketing.’ McMichael AJ et al The Lancet, 374; 2123 - 2125 Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue • Health arguments not heard The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC; 1992) committed nations to work collectively to engage in……. “minimizing adverse effects on the economy, on public health and on the quality of the environment” (Article 4, Item f) Why did Copenhagen not get further? Developing countries want developed countries to • allow them to develop, and pay for the cost of the clean energy they need to do so • show responsibility for the current mess by committing to huge reductions in their own GHG emissions • support them financially in necessary adaptation Three challenges Structured assessments of risk Development of adaptation strategies Telling the co-benefits story The Co-benefits story - headlines What’s good for the climate is good for health Low carbon societies are the next great health advance Mitigation actions will result in huge, immediate, and certain health benefits The Task Force on Climate Change Mitigation and Public Health Supported by a consortium of funding bodies coordinated by the Wellcome Trust Department of Health NIHR, Economic and Social Research Council, Royal College of Physicians, Academy of Medical Sciences, US National Institute of Environmental Health Sciences and WHO Involving over 50 researchers from UK, USA, India, Canada, Australia, Spain, France, New Zealand, WHO Geneva Indian Stoves – Traditional and Modern Per meal ~15x less black carbon and other particles ~10x less ozone precursors ~5x less carbon monoxide Traditional Biomass Stove Gasifier Stove with Electric Blower (battery recharged with cell phone charger) Health benefits of the Indian stove programme Deaths from ALRI Avoided in 2020 (%) Total avoided 2010-20 Deaths from COPD Deaths from IHD 30.2% 28.2% 5.8% 240,000 1.27 million 560,000 ALRI=acute lower respiratory infections. COPD=chronic obstructive pulmonary disease. IHD=ischaemic heart disease. GHG benefits of Indian stove programme • Reductions in black carbon, methane, ozone precursors could amount to the equivalent of 0.5-1.0 billion tonnes of CO2 eq over the decade • Cost <$50 per household every 5 years Health and GHG benefits (UK) Impact in UK 2010 population in 1 year UK household energy efficiency (combined improvements) Premature deaths averted ~ 5400 Mt-CO2 saved (vs 1990) 55 Action to reduce European CO2 emissions by 30% -> savings “as much as €76 billion per year.” Health and Environment Alliance (HEAL), Climate Action Network Europe (CAN-E) and WWF Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue • Health arguments not heard Public trust in different professions Group Doctors Teachers Television news readers Professors Judges Scientists Civil servants Government ministers Politicians generally Journalists Ranking 1 2 3 Tell the truth (%) 91 87 66 Not tell the truth (%) 6 8 24 4 5 7 11 14 74 72 64 45 20 11 19 23 42 72 15 19 73 16 (last) 13 79 Source: MORI - UK survey ‘Trust’ a two edged sword Influence Sins of omission What can we do? • Illustrate the clear links • Articulate the major benefits of appropriate action • Lead personal life styles which are climate-friendly • Sharpen our advocacy The Times May 25, 2009 Climate change is the cholera of our era The medical profession needs to wake up: we should be in the vanguard of the green revolution Muir Gray ...but what can I do? • Ensure your MP, your line manager / Chief Executive, your Chairman and non-exec.s, your local politicians know that MANY health professionals are seriously concerned. Numbers matter. • Join the Climate and Health Council • Set up an Irish Climate and Health Council • Sign the Climate and Health Council pledge at www.climateandhealth.org Why now, why us? • Never waste a crisis • A classic public health issue • Health arguments contain good news, come from a trusted source, and can transform the political context John Holdren, White House science advisor: We are driving a car with bad brakes in a fog and heading for a cliff. We know for sure the cliff is out there. We just don’t know exactly where it is. Prudence would suggest we should start putting on the brakes