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Biodiversity and Environment (and Livelihood) Security By Pascal O. Girot as a contribution to UNEP’s Global Environmental Outlook 2008 (GEO4) 8.1 Introduction to the section Biodiversity provides a plethora of goods and services which sustains livelihoods of millions of rural poor. As global climate change and pervasive changes in the world’s biosphere take place at an accelerated pace, the range and quality of goods and services provided by ecosystems are bound to dwindle. Combined with rapid habitat transformation, climate change will exacerbate the loss of biodiversity and the risk of species extinction. Similarly, healthy ecosystems are also increasing recognized as crucial buffers against extreme climate events, as carbon sinks and as filters for waterborne and airborne pollutants. Thus, a healthy environment is not only an end in itself, but also a means to attain greater human security (Blaikie, P. et al 1994). Over 10 years ago, in its Human Development Report of 1994, UNDP defined the concept of Human Security, which aims “to safeguard the vital core of all human lives from critical pervasive threats, in a way that is consistent with long-term human fulfilment” (UNDP-HDR 1994). Among these critical pervasive threats are sudden changes in environmental conditions that can be the results of violent perturbations due to the impact of natural hazards, epidemics, economic crises or the threat of political violence and social strife. It can also be the result of slow onset hazards such as drought and shifts in environmental conditions which jeopardize livelihoods and life-support systems for human societies (water and food supply). Again, the brunt of these impacts most often weathered by the poorest and most vulnerable countries of the world. There are shared global risks, with shared but differentiated responsibilities. Scale shifts become a crucial aspect of any analysis on global environmental change. There is a need to distinguish truly global phenomena occurring at a planetary scale, such as shifts in the Earth’s radiation balance and a relatively rapid decline of stratospheric ozone. Other processes occur as pervasive and world-wide phenomena, but at a regional, national and local scale, such as nitrification of water bodies, coral bleaching, deforestation and loss of biodiversity. In arid or semi arid regions, more erratic rainfall and reduced water availability are predicted by most climate change models. In other regions such as Europe and Central America, increase risk of drought co-exists with increased frequency and magnitude of floods. Changes in mean temperatures will also favor opportunistic species and increase the latitudinal and altitudinal spread of vector-borne diseases such as malaria and dengue Another key aspect of the relation between human security and biodiversity lies in the unexpected. As C.S.Holling (1986, 1998) suggests, we must brace for surprises, as most natural resource management systems function as multi-equilibrium and non-linear entities. Managed ecosystems are also marked by discontinuous behavior in both time and space, and as such are prone to perturbations and sudden changes. These threshold factors are critically important to understand as ecosystems, under stress due to temperature and rainfall changes and to the impacts of nutrient loading and invasive species, can react suddenly and collapse. This is the creative destruction of ecosystems referred to in recent works by Berkes (1998), Holling (2001) and Gunderson (2004). Ecosystems do not disappear, but rather they are transformed. Historically, there have been recorded shifts from forest to savannah ecosystems, due to anthropogenic use of fire (Moran, E. 1981). As an ecosystem shifts in structure or function as a result of nutrient loading, invasive species or recurrent hazard such bushfires, the resulting ecosystem –though stable and more resilient- is usually less productive and less diverse, and thus offers a diminished carrying capacity. Ecosystems can irreversibly flip into different form and function, as when a coral reef ecosystem shifts from a coraldominated to an algal-dominated coastal ecosystem. Such phase shifts in coastal ecosystems have been documented in Jamaica and Belize and in the Indo-Pacific Coral Reefs (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005:22). BOX 1: Sustainable Livelihoods Approach Faced with a myriad of uncertainties, many rural communities have developed coping strategies in order to mitigate these climate A livelihood comprises the capabilities, risks and multiply options. In drought assets (including both material, prone regions of Africa, for instance, many environmental and social resources) and communities have developed traditional activities required for a jeans of living. A knowledge of alternative sources of livelihood is sustainable when it can livelihoods, when crops fail due to lack of cope with and recover from stresses and rainfall. When agriculture and livestock shocks and maintain or enhance its rearing is no longer option, access to capabilities and assets both now and in ecosystem goods and services such as nonthe future, while not undermining the timber forest products, bushmeat and wild natural resource base. DFID, 1999-2003 Sustainable Livelihoods root crops become a critical coping Guidance Sheets London: Department for strategy. Even when agriculture is not International Development under threat, bushmeat is often a complementary source of animal protein for many rural communities in Africa and Latin America. These alternative sources of livelihoods are imbedded in traditional knowledge of biodiversity, as refered to in the next section on Cultural Value (see section 9). BOX 2- Benefit Sharing and Poverty The analysis reveals that the poor depend on environmental capital to a considerable extent, with in-kind and saleable products amounting to upward of an additional 20 percent of incomes. The most detailed analysis of this resource dependence exists for forests, but the case study evidence for coral reefs and mangroves tells a similar story. In all cases, however, the ecosystems that generate this additional income are under threat from unsustainable exploitation by the poor themselves, through exploitation by “rent seekers,” from pollution, and because of natural disasters. In some cases, the poor can be excluded from access to environmental assets through measures of environmental protection, e.g., protected areas. The obvious implication is that patterns of resource use have to be changed toward sustainable ones, and, where possible, conservation measures must be associated with the sharing of benefits by the poor. Source: UNDP, 2005 Investing in Environmental Wealth for Poverty Reduction, Environment and the MDG s, , UNDP, UNEP, IIED, IUCN WRI,, p.47 How then, do we distinguish what is predictable (yet uncertain) from that which is emergent, incremental and inherently unpredictable? Many of these surprises will bring benefits and opportunities to some, and will spell disaster and chaos for others. All sum up as direct impacts on the most vulnerable segments of the population, the poor and those who relay most heavily on natural resources for their livelihoods. The ultimate insecurity is found in the unraveling of the web of life represented by the world’s ecosystems. Building on the GEO3 report, which featured sections on Disasters and Human Vulnerability to Environmental Change, this section will highlight the role that biodiversity has played in providing security for people. It will be most focused on the regulating function ecosystems play in buffering climate extremes, purifying water, regulating floods by storing excess water and maintaining baseflow during drought. Ecosystem services also include disease and pathogen regulation. In this sense, the chapter has linkages to the “biodiversity and health”, “biodiversity and agriculture” sections and the climate change, land degradation and water resources chapters of the GEO4 report.. It would include analysis of biodiversity loss as a contributing cause of natural disasters and its consequences for human well-being. The section will reflect upon both the impact of biodiversity loss on natural disasters and the security of people. Finally, it points out key options to harness and enhance these regulating functions, by managing or restoring ecosystems to increase human security. 8.2 State and trends The concept of ecosystem includes the components and processes that comprise the environment and provides a useful framework for discussions related to the environment. Conservation of biodiversity and the delivery of the associated ecosystem goods and services provide the foundation for human wellbeing, providing food, soil nutrients, clean water, disease and climate buffering, building materials, energy, pharmaceuticals, and much else. Loss of habitat through deforestation, loss of soil and over-fishing are contributing to diminished productivity of ecosystems from forest, agricultural and marine environments. Globally, one of the major drivers of biodiversity loss is habitat loss due to conversion to agricultural and other uses, as well as overexploitation. Lack of regulation also leads to overexploitation and destructive extractive techniques, especially of forest and marine species. While some ecosystem services such as agro-ecosystems have expanded, according to the Millenium Ecosystem Assessment (2005), others are on the wane such as fisheries, timber production, water supply, waste treatment and detoxification, water purification, natural hazard protection, regulation of air quality, regulation of regional and local climate, and regulation of erosion. These changes are driven essentially by direct causes such as habitat conversion into agriculture or other productive assets and settlements, but also by overexploitation, particularly from overfishing, introduction of invasive species as well as the long terms impacts of pollution through nutrient loading (nitrogen and phosphorous) in aquatic ecosystems (terrestrial, freshwater and coastal). Other abiotic drivers of environmental change are due to anthropogenic Green House Gas emissions, which are leading to rapid changes in the climate of many regions of the world. The overexploitation of coastal and marine ecosystems by commercial fisheries constitutes an illustration of the impacts of open-access common pool resources on livelihoods. The collapse of the North Atlantic fisheries is a case in point (quote Bonnie McKay and also chapter by De Sombre and Barkin on the Talbot War in IISD/IUCN’s book on Environment and Security). Many other examples in the GEO3 point to consistent increases in marine catches in most countries of the world over the past decades, a trend which is starting to drop due to collapse in marine populations in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. Increasing pollution and eutrophication of coastal waters are also impacting populations of demersal fish and the livelihoods of traditional fishing communities in many regions of the world. Coral reefs are not immune to this trend in degradation, with increasing impacts on local livelihoods linked to fisheries and tourism. Current trends in land degradation and loss of habitat continue to contribute to reducing livelihood options while creating the conditions for heightened risks. The interaction between abiotic (climate change, water resources) and biotic factors make for complex, dynamic systems. For instance, there is a clear link between the increased incidence of drought and processes that lead to accelerated land degradation, soil erosion and salinization.Similarly, livestock populations tend to concentrate on available grazing lands during drought, further increasing land degradation. These processes are also exacerbated by structural factors such as land tenure and access to technology, which restrict management options and tend to perpetuate destructive land use practices. Interactions between climate variability and loss of habitats are also illustrated by the creation of conditions of physical and ecological vulnerability. For example, long spells of drought associated with the El Niño phenomenon (ENSO) contribute to forest fires, as was the case in the Amazon Basin, Indonesia and Central America in 1997-1998. These forest fires also reduced the capacities of natural forests to buffer the impacts of heavy rainfall and hurricanes, as happened during Hurricane Mitch in Central America. These complex interactions and concatenations between climate, ecosystems and local livelihoods need to be better understood. Climate change and rising mean temperatures over the past decades are also generating rapid changes in the biodiversity and radiation balance of different biomes and ecosystems. With a trend towards the migration of species to higher latitudes and altitudes, certain ecosystems are undergoing more rapid changes than other. In particular arctic and circum-glacial ecosystems are probably those that are most in flux. With the increase in international communication and travel, the spread of undesirable species has also tended to increase. The introduction of invasive species is another source of increasing pressure on fragile ecosystems such as small islands and inland waterbodies. In freshwater habitats, the introduction of alien species is the second leading cause of extinction. Introduced invasive species can trigger shifts in an ecosystem’s structure and function, producing cascading effects on its productivity and therefore adversely affect those livelihoods that depend on it. Historically, there have been numerous accounts of disastrous outcomes of intentional introductions such as that of the Nile perch (Lates niloticus), which resulted in the extinction of more than 200 other fish species in the Great Lakes in Africa. Another example has been the introduction of the Comb Jelly fish (Mnemiopsis leidyi) in the Black Sea which has caused the collapse of 26 major fisheries and has contributed to the subsequent growth of an oxygen deprived “dead zone” in this inland water body (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005: 22). Other invasives include aquatic plants such as the Water Hyacinth (EichhorniaCrassipes) a South America native, which has spread to over 50 countries in 5 continents. Its rapid growth has choked inland waterways and deprived other species of oxygen and habitat. This requires constant investment in dredging and clearing of waterway for regional transport. More difficult to control are parasitic or viral infections of wildlife, such as the case of Avian Malaria (Plasmodium relictum) which is decimating Hawai’i’s native bird populations. Unfortunately, potentially damaging introductions continue unabated, in spite of concerted efforts on behalf of many countries. Careless behaviour leads to unintentional introductions. So-called ‘accidents’ now account for the majority of successful invasions. Since the 1960s, nutrient loading has emerged as one of the most important drivers of ecosystems change in terrestrial, freshwater and coastal ecosystems. The total amount of biologically available nitrogen released by human activities has increase ninefold between 1890 and 1990, and is essentially attributed to the widespread use of fertilizers. Nitrogen and Phosphorous contribute to the eutrophication of freshwater ecosystems and hypoxia in coastal marine ecosystems with the resulting impact BOX 3 - Ecosystem Defined on fish species populations and As defined in the Millennium productivity. Ecosystem Assessment, an ecosystem is "a dynamic Moreover, ecosystem services provide complex of plant, animal, and human populations with renewable micro-organism communities goods and services that constitute the and the non-living basis for adaptation to the changing environment interacting as a conditions that are sure to characterize functional unit. Humans are an the coming decades. Agro-biodiversity integral part of ecosystems. continues to be the most reliable Ecosystems vary enormously in size; a temporary pond in a tree hollow and an ocean basin can both be ecosystems" Source: (Millennium Ecosystem Assessment 2005). source of food security. Nonetheless, dozens of endemic varieties of cultigens are being replaced by commercial seeds or simply lost to future generations. The past is still a source of important lessons on the importance of maintaining food security in the face of a changing environment, as it provides more options for a society to choose from. By understanding the dynamics of poor people’s livelihoods, we can assess how vulnerable or resilient they will be to a changing environment, how they might cope and respond with the resources they have, and how these conditions can be reflected and built upon for successful adaptation strategies. There is an on-going debate concerning the role of forests in regulating water resources. The useful myth of forests as main regulator of water runoff and groundwater recharge is increasingly being questionned, with evidence from the field (Kaimowitz, 2002). A recent publication by FAO and CIFOR (2005) reassesses the link between Forest and Floods, suggesting that simplications of the complex interactions between climate, soil conditions and vegetation are misleading. These have led to policies of relocation of populations along flood plains and logging bans, which have wrought far greater impacts on local livelihoods and security, than benefits from flood control. The report demonstrates that forests are in many cases net consumers of water, and that forests have limited effects on limiting large flood events. They do have an impact on reducing local level floods in a small watershed . There are also clear trends in flood damages and loss, which indicate that small scale floods and landslides have a greater cumulative impact at the local level. Clearly not all ecosystems have the potential for providing regulatory services. In particular, some have singled out cloud forests and freshwater wetlands and mangroves as those with the greatest potential for buffering climate extremes. This fact reinforces the need to link flood management to local sustainable livelihoods. Sustainable livelihoods, which contribute to maintining agro-diversity and nondestructive uses of ecosystem goods and services, can provide options to vulnerable populations. Given the reliance of the poor on environmental services for their livelihoods, a central element of this approach should be ecosystem management and restoration activities such as watershed rehabilitation, agro-ecology and forest landscape restoration. By protecting and enhancing the natural services that support livelihoods, vulnerable communities can maintain local safety nets, increase the buffering capacities of local ecosystems and expand the range of options for coping with disruptive shocks and trends. Some ecosystems regulate water flow and can be critical in maintaining the hydrological cycle by storing excess water, as in the case of riparian wetlands, and maintaining base-flow during dry spells. In many countries, the combination of a secured natural resource base, reduced exposure to natural hazards and diversified livelihood activities has increased resilience to future threats, including climate change. In fact, a sustainable livelihoods approach to adaptation has the advantage of meeting immediate development needs while contributing to longer-term capacity development that will create a basis for reducing future vulnerabilities. 8.3 Pressures According to the 2005 Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, ecosystem change are driven by direct causes such as habitant conversion into agriculture, urban settlements and other productive assests, but are increasingly impaired by overexploitation of natural resources, through overfishing, unsustainable agriculture and deforestation. As illustrated in section 3, these drivers are also exacerbated by the long term impacts of pollution through nutrient loading, introduction of invasive species and the release of POPs and ODS into the environment. A major abiotic driver of environmental change is climate change due to anthropogenic GHG emissions, which are already contributing to accelerated changes in ecosystems, particularly in the arctic and alpine biomes. Higher mean temperatures, more intense drought spells and longer dry seasons as well as more frequent and intense cyclones have been recorded in the past decades. These changes are having an impact on biodiversity and ecosystem services. There are indications of changes in species distribution, in growing season, in timing of reproduction and migratory patterns, as well as an increase in the incidence of pest and disease outbreaks. Coral bleaching and glacial retreat are among the early signals of a changing climate. The MA also recognised that the most extensive drivers of changes in biodiversity is habitat loss due to land use conversion. Marine and Forest Ecosystems have been subjected to over-exploitation and destructive extractive practices. Concomitantly, ecosystems are also a critical source of livelihood for millions of rural poor. Biodiversity has also been enhanced by sound management and wise use by local communities, and increasingly, the role of rural communities as custodians of forests and biodiversity is being recognized. Some 250 million people live in communities and depend on forests for their livelihoods. It is estimated that 22% of the forests found in developing countries are managed by local communities (Bray and Merino, 2004).Nontimber forest products and bushmeat is a major sources of livelihoods security for poor rural communities throughout the world. The trade in wild plants and animals and their derivatives is estimated at nearly US$ 160 Billion annually (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment, 2005: 53). Nutrient loading is also a critical factor in the heightened incidence of algal blooms of blue green algae and more noxious red tides due to the explosion of plankton populations (particularly dinoflagellates (Noctiluca sp.). During red tides, dinoflagellates produce a neurotoxin which affects muscle function in susceptible organisms. Humans may also be affected by eating fish or shellfish containing the toxins. The resulting diseases include ciguatera (from eating affected fish) and paralytic shellfish poisoning(from eating affected shellfish, such as clams, mussels, and oysters). Fishing communities that rely on the productivity of these aquatic ecosystems are directly impacted, as bans of fish and shellfish during red tides cause them direct losses in income and employment. Climate change is also creating conditions for major shifts in ecosystems, with a consequent impact on livelihoods which depend on their productivity. , Recent research shows that the melting of permafrost will thaw large extents of peat bogs, with the resulting changes in albedo and increased atmospheric emissions of methane gas, a Green House Gas. In Western Siberia, a peat bog covering an area equivalent to France and Germany combined has started to melt for the fist time since it formed 11,000 years ago. It is estimated that the thawing of permafrost will release some 70Bn tonnes of methane into the atmosphere, change the albedo of these boreal plains and modify arctic habitats and species distribution (Pierce,F. 2005). In additional to contributing to global warming, these momentous changes in the arctic environment will produce associated risks such as flooding, changes in migratory patters and species distribution upon which arctic eskimo communities depend. Glacier retreat is also occurring apace, particularly in tropical high mountains such as the Himalayas and the Andes. For example, glacier retreat in the Tropical Andes has accelerated over the past decades. Recent studies from Ecuador have revealed that the surface covered by glaciers on the Cotopaxi Volcano has decreased 30% since 1976 (Cáceres, B. et al 2005). It is estimated that currently the Cotopaxi glaciers produce 2000mm/year of runoff waters, compared to the average precipitation of 1000mm. Therefore, glacial retreat will result in a net loss of water “capital” each year affected water supply to communities downstream (B. Francou, March 2005). The accumulation of melt-waters behind moraines in high mountain ranges also poses a security threat, as the highly unstable glacial lakes can burst and cause sudden destruction down-slope. These Glacial Lake Outburst Floods (GLOF) have been documented in Nepal, Peru and Colombia, and are currently being monitored. INSERT BOX 4 with Photographs and Maps on Glacier retreat in the Andes (SEE PHOTOS) Cite Cáceres, B. 2005 for Cotopaxi and Francou, B. et al 2000 for Antisana. Recent research on the hydrological role of Tropical Montane Cloud Forests has confirmed their importance as flow regulators in upper watersheds (Bruijnzeel, 2001). Major cities in Central America and some of the larger Caribbean Islands such as Jamaica rely on cloud forests for their water supply. For Andean highlands, the cold and wet páramo ecosystem, is of vital importance. As groundwater extraction is scarce and difficult, the páramo is the most important water provider for major cities as well as most of the agricultural area in Colombia, Venezuela and Ecuador. The water is used for urban purposes, as a source for downstream irrigation and for hydro-electricity generation. The paramo´s hydrological properties hinges on the soil-plant interaction. However, these properties are extremely vulnerable to irreversible degradation when the soils are disturbed. Therefore, there high mountain ecosystems guarantee a uniform and reliable water supply, and their conservation and sustainable use is the subject of considerable policy debate. Extreme climate events also tend to exacerbate pressures on ecosystems. Drought is a case in point. As precipation deficits increase the viability of rain-fed agriculture tends to wane, particularly in rural areas without access to sources of irrigation waters. As agriculture and livestock rearing become less reliable sources of livelihoods, ecosystem provisioning become paramount for the survival of rural population. In many regions of the world, forests, freshwater and coastal ecosystem provide critical sources of animal protein through fish and bushmeat, and of non-timber forest products, as dietary supplements and complementary sources of income. In many countries, access rights and tenure arrangements for these public goods have evolved to enable extractive activities in times of need. In other countries, these common property resources have been increasing enclosed and access to them restricted, with the resulting impacts on rural livelihoods. These ecosystem provisioning funtions in effect act as critical safety nets for millions of rural poor, and their conservation as public goods should be a matter of policy. 8.4 Impacts From Water and Climate-related Hazards As explained in the previous sub-section, human populations, and particularly the rural poor are fully dependent on the flow of benefits of biological and abiotic resources through the consumption of environmental goods and services. Among the most critical environmental services are the provision of water and the regulation of the hydrological cycle. Of the 3,900 km3/inhab./year of freshwater water available for human use, some 70% is consumed for agricultural purposes through irrigation, a far smaller proportion for industrial and domestic use (WRI, 2002). The huge scale of consumptive use has depleted many rivers and lakes in the developing world, with the Aral Sea basin as perhaps the most dramatic example. Where the return flow carries pollutants added during use, such river depletion gives rise to serious health problems for humans and animals. The drying of the Aral Sea, with associated air pollution caused by wind transport of dried sediments, cause health problems as far away as Europe. More than 1.4 billion people already live in river basins where high water-use levels threaten freshwater ecosystems (Millenium Ecosystem Assessment- Task Force on Water and Sanitation-What will it take -2004). Other studies have shown that in order to sustain ecosystems, irrigation withdrawals—vitally needed to meet the hunger MDG— will need to be reduced by 7 percent by 2025, in comparison with 1995 levels (Alcamo and others 2000). On the other hand, the access to safe drinking water and basic sanitation is critical for the preservation of human health, particularly among children. Water-related diseases are still the greatest killers among the poor of developing countries today. According to the World Health Organization, 1.6 million deaths per year can be attributed to unsafe water, poor sanitation, and lack of hygiene (WHO 2004). This silent killer is without a doubt the most preventable source of untimely death in the developing world, and is probably the most powerful argument in favour of complying with the Millenium Development Goal No7, which insists on safe water for all. Similarly, the exacerbation of regional resource shortages with climate change is also contributing to emerging conflicts over water between competing end-users and neighbouring countries sharing transboundary watershed, such as the Nile, the Tigris and Euphrates and the Rio Grande to cite but a few. (Wolfe, A. et al 2003). Environmental degradation combined with heightened exposure and vulnerability of human settlements and livelihoods contribute to another major source of insecurity through disasters. It is estimated that almost 2 billion people were affected by disasters in the last decade of the twentieth century, 86 percent of them due to floods and droughts. A recent UNDP-BCPR report, Reducing Disaster Risk: A Challenge for Development, compared the exposed population to natural hazards with the records of losses in human lives over the past 20 years (1980-2000) Again India, China and Bangladesh top the list, as well as Venezuela, due to the massive loss of life associated with the floods and landslides in the coastal state of Vargas in December 1999. Flooding frequently leads to contamination of drinkingwater systems with human excreta from inadequate sanitation and with refuse and industrial waste from dumps. These flood waters are also vehicles for transporting pollutants into downstream ecosystems and coastal areas, as was recently shown by the December 2004 Tsunami and the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans in 2005. Last but not least, drought constitutes one of the most devastating climate related hazards, and is responsible for considerable losses in livelihoods and economic activity. While floods and landslides lead in terms of number of climate related events, drought is responsible for more loss of life and livelihoods worldwide cause the most illness and death, not only by limiting adequate water supply but also by triggering and exacerbating malnutrition and famine. Ethiopia, Somalia and Mozambique recorded the most deaths. In contrast to other hazard types, drought deaths are often the least explainable by the intensity or duration of the dry spell, and political, social and economic forces at play are usually the main causal factors for famine. Drought also contributes to creating conditions for other hazards such as forest fires to occur. During the El Niño of 1997-1998, forest fires destroyed extensive portion of the Amazonian forest, Indonesia and Central America. In Indonesia alone, UNEP has estimated that 45,600 km2 of forest were destroyed (UNEP, 1999:10). In Central America, the destruction of over 1.5 million Hectares of forests due to wild fires created the conditions for the devastating impact of Hurricane Mitch in October 1998 (Girot, P. 2001). These impacts do not affect only tropical countries as the dramatic forest fires of California, Spain and Portugal in 2005 have illustrated. In Portugal, the EU has estimated that between July and August 2005 over 221,062 hectares had been damaged by forest fires (EFFIS, 2005). While loss of life was used as the key variable in UNDP Reducing Disaster Risk Report, it is clear that disasters also produce direct and indirect impacts on local, national and regional economies. These will only increase further with the impact of climate change through more frequent and extreme climate events. In the 1990s U.S. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) payouts for extreme weather events quadrupled. And following the impact of the 2005 Hurricane Katrina in New Orleans, these figures can only increase for this decade. The upward trend continued as the 21 Century began. Financial losses for 2002 were $55 billion; those for 2003 were $60 billion ($15 billion insured). The losses are projected to reach $150 billion annually within this decade if current trends continue. Climate change will no doubt exacerbate these trends(Havard University Medical School, 2005. From Emerging Diseases and other Biological Hazards Environmental degradation which often accompanies disaster situations can compound and prolong the humanitarian impact of disasters. New environmental threats are increasingly coming from biological sources, favouring the emergence, resurgence and redistribution of infectious diseases, affecting humans, other animals and plants. Some diseases formerly limited to the humid tropics are spreading in range and altitude, which means that many sub-tropical regions and mountain valley are know experiencing an increase in the incidence of dengue and malaria. In Ecuador, for instance, malaria was limited to 3 coastal provinces some 20 years ago, today Malaria is prevalent in 9 out of 12 provinces in the country. Malaria is highly sensitive to climatic factors. Higher temperatures can affect the range of transmission primarily by increasing biting rates and the maturation of parasites inside mosquitoes. Meanwhile heavy rains (and drought indirectly – see above) can create new breeding sites. Projected changes in temperate will extend the range of malaria bearing mosquitoes in higher latitudes and altitude, and, in some regions, a longer season during which malaria transmission can occur. Another emerging biological hazards are animal borne (zoonotic) diseases such as the West Nile virus and the Nipah virus. Warm winters, spring droughts and summer heatwaves amplify the bird-mosquito cycle of West Nile Virus. The disease has spread to 230 species of animals (including horses) and 138 spp. of birds in the U.S, and is becoming a major public health concern (Harvard University Medical School, 2004). Mortality of birds of prey could have ecological ripples, contributing to rodent-borne diseases, and reduction in bird populations, which in turn can affect mosquito predation, with knock-on effects on insect populations, pollination, health and agriculture. The Nipah Virus – a newly emerging virus – is carried by fruit bats. Extensive fires in Southeast Asia accompanying the El Nino-associated drought in 1997/98 removed food sources for bats, which led to their displacement onto pig farms. Over 100 people died and the pig industry was devastated. Nipah virus re-emerged in Bangladesh in 2003 and 2004 (Harvard University Medical School, 2004). Similar outbreaks of Avian Flu are being reported in Asia, with devastating consequences from both domesticated fowl and wildlife, and an increasing public health concern for the Mediterranean and European region. Rodents are also vectors and reservoirs of a large number of diseases -- including hantaviruses, arenaviruses, Lyme-infected ticks, babesioisis, leptospirosis, toxoplasmosis and plague. They are associated with most emerging infectious viruses and hemorrhagic disorders. Rodents are also prolific consumers of growing and stored grains, and coincide with high human population densities, thus compounding the risk of infection. Their populations respond to a complex set of ecological dynamics, but droughts followed by floods often boost their populations ( Harvard University Medical School, 2004) Incidence of pests and diseases in natural forests are on the increase. Bark beetle infestations in Canada and the US pine forests, from New Mexico and Arizona, up through the west to British Columbia and into Alaska. In British Columbia, nearly 22 million acres are infested – enough timber to build 3.3 million homes and supply the entire U.S. housing market for two year (Harvard University Medical School, 2004) Similarly, following the 2001 drought in Central America a Bark beetle (Dendroctonus frontalis) plague infested over 60,000 ha of pine savannahs of Honduras and Nicaragua, illustrating the complex interaction between temperature and other stress factors (CCAD,2002). Drought and water stress encourage beetle infestations by drying out the resin that drowns the beetles, while warming encourages their over-wintering, reproduction and migration to new heights and latitudes. Beetle-infested trees die within a year. The dead stands contribute to wildfires, with losses of life and health; property and timber; harm to watersheds and water quality; and increased risk of avalanches (Harvard University Medical School, 2004). Air pollution derived from changes in temperatures and shifts in flowering patterns of plants have also led to changes in air quality. Heat waves in Europe in 2003 caused casualties upward from 25,000, of which 15,000 in France alone. Increased incidence of aeroallergens such pollen and mold are also creating impacts in the human health sector. Allergic diseases are the sixth leading cause of chronic illness in the U.S., affecting roughly 17% of the population, 6.3 million children. There were 4,487 deaths in 2000 due to asthma and the asthma cost the health care system about $18 billion annually. Ragweed pollen production is stimulated by carbon dioxide and the early arrival of spring with climate change has advanced the allergy season. (Harvard University Medical School, 2004). Future impacts on the rate of respiratory illnesses will also come from synergies between air pollutants and climate change (e.g., heat-waves and smog). These impacts on human health have been addressed in greater detail in section 5 of this chapter.The clustering of climate –related and biological risks will also contribute to uncertainty and to extreme events such as heat-waves, droughts, wildfires and crop failures. 8.5 Conclusions and linkage to policy options The linkages between Biodiversity and Human Security are complex, and bear witness to the intrinsic relationship between societies and their natural environment. If Human Security seeks to avoid the impact of critical pervasive threats to human well being, it is clear that the unraveling of the world ecosystems is probably one of the greatest threats to life on earth along with climate change. Our knowledge of the systemic interaction between climate change, carbon and nutrient loading and habitat transformation, and its impact on biodiversity and human security, is still limited. Most models seek to reduce uncertainties from global change to local impacts, and there are still major gaps in downscaling global models. Meshed with the problems of scale (what to include) are the problems of complexity (how to account for it), which pose formidable challenges for modelling, predicting and monitoring environmental change. Uncertainty is a dominant concern, but few now deny that the rate of advent of new climatic patterns and the hazards (and benefits) associated with these will be unprecedented in human history. Concatenation and synergy will increase the problems associated with hazards leading to new and as yet un-experienced types and levels of loss. Policies that can address both the risks and opportunities posed by rapid environmental changes will require a combined focus on ecosystem management, sustainable livelihoods and local risk management- Although there is an on-going debate about the role of forests in flood control, there is growing evidence from the field that specific ecosystems provide regulating services that are crucial to reducing the impacts of extreme climate events in small watersheds. Among these those ecosystems most intimately linked to the hydrological cycle are gaining in importance, as in the case of cloud forests in mountain ecosystems which protect the upper watersheds of many major watersheds, and which provide sources of water for urban consumption and irrigation. Wetlands, particularly riparian and coastal ecosystems such as mangroves, are increasingly recognized for their critical water storage function during flood events. Thus, policies aimed at the improved management of water resources and nonstructural mitigation of weather-related hazards can contribute to reduce disaster risks by enhancing landscape restoration, mangrove forest management and local conservation and sustainable use initiatives. For instance in coastal ecosystems, it has been shown that restoring mangroves in cyclone-prone areas not only restores degraded ecosystems and increases physical protection against storms, but also boosts the provision of livelihood options by generating much-needed income for local communities. In the Tsunami -hit areas of South Asia in December 2004, those Sri Lankan communities with healthy mangrove forests and settlements protected by shelter belts were less impacted than those with few natural sea defences (Dahdouh-Guebas, F. et al 2005). India and Bangladesh have come to recognized the importance of the Suderbans mangrove forest in the Gulf of Bengal, not only as a source of livelihoods for fishing communities but also as effective mechanism for coastal protection. Vietnam is also investing in mangrove restoration as a cost-effective means for increased coastal protection. Similar benefits can be derived from healthy coral reefs, which are less brittle and form better protection against storm surges and hurricanes. INSERT BOX – On the role of mangroves in buffering storm surges in Vietnam – BOX 4 -Mangrove restoration for buffering storm surges in Vietnam- Red Cross Source: IISD, 2003, Box 1 In Vietnam, tropical cyclones have caused a considerable loss of livelihood resources, particularly in coastal communities. Although managing coastal resources has great social and economic importance, the country has a limited ability to protect coastal areas against weather hazards. Mangrove ecosystem rehabilitation along much of Vietnam’s coastline is an example of a cost effective approach to improving coastal defences while generating local livelihoods. Mangrove wetlands provide enhanced physical protection from storms and are a reservoir for carbon sequestration; they also provide a resource base for local livelihoods and income generation. Since 1994,the Vietnam National Chapter of the Red Cross has worked with local communities to plant and protect mangrove forests in northern Vietnam. Nearly 12,000 hectares of mangroves have been planted. The benefits have been staggering. Although planting and protecting the mangroves cost approximately US$1.1 million, it saved US$7.3 million per year in dike maintenance. During the devastating typhoon Wukong in 2000, project areas remained unharmed while neighbouring provinces suffered huge losses in lives, property and livelihoods. The Vietnam Red Cross estimates that some 7,750 families have benefited from mangrove rehabilitation. Family members can now earn additional income from selling crabs, shrimp and mollusks while the protein in their diets.provide us with a basis Theincreasing precautionary principle should on which to act. Some of the compelling data presented in this section on current changes in climate and biological risks should be sufficient grounds for concern. However, while global environmental conventions are important to set global rules and regulation, there is the need to address the issues of environmental risks at a scale where they become manifest. While many old and new natural hazards are increasing in scope and scale, the other side of the risk equation has to do with increases in the degree of exposure and vulnerability of human populations. With over 2 Billion people living with under $1|day poverty is one of the major constituents of vulnerability, in addition to prevalent consumption and production patterns. Global concatenation of global changes will still have surprises in store. In this sense, a heightened awareness of these emerging health risks and climate risks is necessary, as is the setting up of adapted early warning systems for climate extremes and for the detection of biological hazards and invasive species. References Berkes, F. Carl Folke 1998 Linking Social and Ecological Systems: management practices and social mechanisms for building resilience, London:Cambridge University Press Bruijnzeel, L.A. 1999 Hydrology of Tropical Montane Cloud Forests: a Re-Evaluation, keynote paper prepared for the Second International Colluquium on Hydrology and Water Management in the Humid Tropics, 22-24 March 1999, Panama City, Panama. 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