Download OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050

CISL TOSCANA
CENTRO STUDI CISL
Firenze 3-5 April 2012
GREEN TRADE UNIONS NEGOTIATORS
FOR EUROPE 2020 OBJECTIVES
«THE OECD CONTRIBUTION
TO EVIRONMENTAL ECONOMICS, TO RIO+20
AND TO THE EUROPEAN DEBATE»
Aldo Ravazzi
OECD WPIEEP Vice-President and former President
(Working party on the Integration of Environmental and Economic Policies)
OECD WPEP Vice-President (WP on Environmental Performance Country Reviews)
OECD WPBWE Co-President (WP on Biodiversity, Water & Ecosystems)
10 Planet Ecosystems
to be kept under control
(Rockstroem et al.,
Nature, 2009)
1. Climate change
2. Biodiversity loss
3. Nitrogen cycle
4. Phosphorus cycle
5. Stratospheric
ozone depletion
6. Ocean acidification
7. Global
freshwater use
8. Land system
change
9. Atmospheric
aerosol loading*
10. Chemical pollution*
* not yet quantified
SCIENTIFICALLY-BASED KNOWLEDGE
FOR EFFICIENT DECISION-MAKING
 The Planetary Boundaries (Rockstroem et al., Nature, 2009)
 The «Limits to Growth» of the Club of Rome (1972), often
misunderstood/underestimated (Meadows &Meadows, Aurelio
Peccei, Fiat manager, and Alexander King, Oecd manager)
 IPCC (UN Climate Change)
 RP (UNEP Resource Panel) - Von Weizsaecker
State of the Planet Declaration
Planet Under Pressure: New Knowledge Towards Solutions
London 26-29 March 2012
ECONOMICS & ENVIRONMENT: key references
• Nicholas Stern (2006), "The Economics of Climate Change - The Stern
Review ”, HM Treasury, London
• Nicholas Stern and James Adams (2009), “The Global Deal: Climate
Change and the Creation of a New Era of Progress and Prosperity”,
Library Edition
• Pavan Sukhdev ed. (2010 e 2011), “TEEB - The Economics of
Ecosystems and Biodiversity”, vol.1 “TEEB: Ecological and Economic
Foundations , vol.2 “TEEB in National and International Policy Making”,
Earthscan, London
• E. Von Weizsaecker et al. (2009), “A Long-Term Ecological Tax Reform”,
ch.7 in “Factor 5 - Transforming the Global Economy through 80%
Improvements in Resource Productivity”, Earthscan, London
OECD MEMO
OECD = [OCSE] =
Organisation for Economic and Development Cooperation
34 Member Countries
21 (out of 27) EU member countries
(not in: Lit-Lat-Rom-Bul-Cyp-Mal)
4+1 other Europeans: Nor-Ice-Swi-Tur and Isr
4 Americas: Can-Usa-Mex-Chi
4 Asia-Pacific: Jap-Kor-Asl-Nze
-
Marshall Plan, industrialised/developed/market economies
Statistical Data production, Economic Analysis, Peer Reviews
Legal Instruments: (few) Decisions, (several) Recommendations
Intergovernmental Organisation (civil servants study centre)
Stakeholders involvement through TUAC, BIAC (+EEB for env.)
OECD MEMO (2)
200 Committees, Working Parties, Experts Groups, …
An important contribution to the work on environment and
economics (presently 7 committees):
- Economic instruments for environmental policies:
environmental taxes and charges, creation of markets, EHSs, …
- Environmental data, statistics (e.g. material flows) and
indicators (core-key-integration-SD-GG-etc.)
- Analysis of efficiency and effectiveness of environmental
policies
- Integration of environmental policies in other policies
- Assessment of environmental performance of member
countries’ policies and some non-MCs (70 EPRs since 1992) *
- Economics of Climate Change, Transport, Biodiversity, Waste,
Water, Chemicals, etc., Costs of Inaction, CBA, etc.
OECD Environment & Economic Principles
1.Polluter-Pays-Principle [Principio Chi-InquinaPaga] (PPP)
2.User-Pays-Principle [Principio Chi-Usa-Paga] (UPP)
3.Internalisation of externalities (external costs:
social costs, environmental costs, …)
4.Prevention Principle [P. di prevenzione]
(it costs less to intervene before than after)
5. Precautionary Principle [P. di precauzione] (if I
have two uncertain alternatives… - irreversibility
risk) *
OECD Environment & Economic Principles (2)
6. Integration Principle [Principio di Integrazione]
(of environmental policies in sector policies
- e.g. energy, transport, industry - and in
economic-financial-fiscal policies)
7. Sustainable Development
All these principles have been mostly analysed and
developed at OECD and are now institutionalised
(even constitutionalised) in EU Treaties
But also major strategies, e.g.
Resource Productivity/Efficiency - Green Growth
OECD contribution to Rio+20
1. OECD Green Growth Strategy
2. OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10
3. OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 – The
consequences of inaction (a strong call for green
growth policies)
4. Ministerial
Policy Statement
to Rio+20
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10 (1)
• OBJECTIVE 1: MAINTAINING THE INTEGRITY OF ECOSYSTEMS
THROUGH THE EFFICIENT MANAGEMENT OF NATURAL RESOURCES
1.1. Climate - 1.2. Freshwater - 1.3. Biodiversity
• OBJECTIVE 2: DECOUPLING ENVIRONMENTAL PRESSURES FROM
ECONOMIC GROWTH
• OBJECTIVE 3: IMPROVING INFORMATION FOR DECISION MAKING:
MEASURING PROGRESS THROUGH INDICATORS
• OBJECTIVE 4: THE SOCIAL AND ENVIRONMENT INTERFACE:
ENHANCING THE QUALITY OF LIFE
4.1. Environmental health
4.2. Environmental democracy and education
4.3. Employment and environment
4.4. Distributional effects of environmental policies
• OBJECTIVE 5: IMPROVING GLOBAL ENVIRONMENTAL
GOVERNANCE AND CO-OPERATION
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10 (2)
Areas where progress has been achieved include:
• Advances in the scientific and economic
understanding of climate change, biodiversity,
and other key elements of global change science;
• The more active participation of a better
informed citizenry in environmental policy
development and implementation;
• The development and use of more cost-effective
policy instruments, individually and in combination, in many environmentally related areas;
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10 (3)
Areas where progress has been achieved include:
• Initiatives by cities and other sub-national levels
of government;
• Beginnings of an international carbon market;
• An increase in the share of official development
assistance allocated to the environment,
particularly to support implementation of the Rio
Conventions; and
• Strengthened environmental governance in areas
such as the marine environment and chemicals.
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10 (4)
Reductions of some environmental pressures and
improvement of environmental conditions:
• Overall emissions of some key air pollutants such
as SO₂, NOx, have decreased, thereby reducing
their related environmental impacts;
• Water-borne disease in large urban areas is
generally a thing of the past for OECD countries,
life has returned to many rivers that had been
considered dead, and water bodies are
increasingly managed on the basis of hydrological
rather than administrative boundaries;
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10 (5)
Reductions of some environmental pressures and…:
• There are many local examples where populations
of endangered species, and the extent of
protected areas, have increased;
• Some OECD countries have reduced their
emissions of greenhouse gases in absolute terms;
in others, increase less than GDP (decoupling);
• Some key environmental pressures from the
agricultural sector, including use of freshwater for
irrigation, GHG emissions and inputs of
nitrogenous fertilizers, have been reduced;
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10 (6)
Reductions of some environmental pressures …:
• Total annual water abstractions have remained
unchanged in the OECD area, and some countries
have reduced the volume of water abstracted;
• Donors have helped some developing countries
to improve their environmental conditions and to
strengthen their capacities for environmental
management;
• Damage to the ozone layer has been arrested and
is beginning to be reversed.
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10 (7)
Key challenges: Despite the progress that has been
achieved over the last decade, the overall result falls
short of what is needed to ensure the integrity of
ecosystems. In particular:
• We are not on track to limit the rise in the average
temperature of the global atmosphere to 2°C
above pre-industrial period; overall GHG emissions
from OECD countries increased in the last decade;
• The overall energy mix in OECD countries has not
changed appreciably and is still more than 80%
reliant on fossil fuels;
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10 (8)
Key challenges: Despite the progress …
• The environmental gains associated with more
fuel-efficient, less-polluting motor vehicles have
been overwhelmed by the increased scale of their
use, which is related to the continued dominance
of motor vehicles in the modal split, urban sprawl,
and the expansion of motorways;
• Air quality, particularly in many urban centres,
poses an increasing risk of premature death and
disease, particularly to vulnerable populations
such as children and the elderly;
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10 (9)
Key challenges: Despite the progress …
• There are increasing risks of non-linear,
irreversible changes in ecosystems on which
economic and social development depends; one
indicator is the increasing number of endangered
animal and plant species;
• Major changes in agricultural policies and
practices are needed if a growing world
population is to be fed without over-exploiting
scarce natural resources or further damaging the
environment;
OECD Review of the Implementation of the
Environmental Strategy 2000-10 (10)
Key challenges: Despite the progress …
• Diffuse sources of pollution, the declining quantity
and quality of groundwater, as well as the
increasing frequency and severity of droughts and
floods, in some countries partly due to climate
change, is making the sustainable management of
aquatic and related ecosystems more challenging;
• Increased collaboration is needed to better understand the risks as well as the benefits associated
with chemicals, including nanomaterials and the
products of modern biotechnology.
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction
(a strong call for green growth policies)
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (1)
• Unprecedented economic growth in recent
decades in the pursuit of higher living standards
• However, the sheer scale of economic and
population growth has overwhelmed progress in
curbing environmental degradation.
• Providing for a further 2 billion people by 2050
will challenge our ability to manage and restore
the natural assets on which all life depends.
• The OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 projects
demographic and economic trends over the next
four decades (previous in 2008 covered till 2030)
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (2)
• Joint modelling by OECD and PBL-NEEA
• Impacts of economic/population trends on the
environment if we do not introduce more
ambitious policies to better manage natural
assets.
• It then examines some of the policies that could
change that picture for the better.
• Focuses on four urgent areas: climate change,
biodiversity, water, the health impacts of pollution.
• Conclusion: urgent action is needed now to avoid
significant costs of inaction, both in economic
and human terms
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (3)
What could the environment look like in 2050?
• Earth’s population from 7 to over 9 billion
• World economy nearly quadruple, with growing
demand for energy and natural resources
• OECD countries >25% of population aged over 65,
compared to 15% today. China and India also likely
ageing; Africa expected to grow rapidly.
 evolving lifestyles and consumption patterns,
 significant consequences for the environment.
70% of the world population in urban areas (vs 50%)
exacerbating challenges (air, congestion, waste)
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (4)
What could the environment look like in 2050?
• A world economy 4 times larger than today is
projected to use 80% more energy in 2050. *
Without more effective policies, the share of
fossil-fuel based energy in the mix will still remain
at 85%. “BRIICS” to become major energy users.
• Growing population with changing dietary
preferences, agricultural land projected to expand.
• Continued degradation and erosion of natural
environmental capital is expected to 2050, with
the risk of irreversible changes that could
endanger two centuries of rising living standards.
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (5)
Without more ambitious policies, by 2050:
• More disruptive climate change is likely to be
locked in.
• Biodiversity loss is projected to continue. Climate
change to become the main growing driver of
biodiversity loss by 2050, followed by commercial
forestry and, to a lesser extent, bioenergy
croplands.
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (6)
Without more ambitious policies, by 2050:
• Freshwater availability further strained in many
regions, with 2.3 billion more people than today
(in total 40% of global population) living in river
basins under severe water stress.
• Global water demand is projected to increase by
some 55%, due to growing demand from
manufacturing (+400%), thermal electricity
generation (+140%) and domestic use (+130%).
• Nutrient pollution from urban wastewater and
agriculture to worsen in most regions, intensifying
eutrophication and damaging aquatic biodiversity.
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (7)
Without more ambitious policies, by 2050:
• Air pollution is set to become the world’s top
environmental cause of premature mortality.
• The burden of disease related to exposure to
hazardous chemicals is significant worldwide, but
most severe in non-OECD countries
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (8)
Conclusions:
• Natural systems have “tipping points” beyond
which damaging change becomes irreversible
(e.g. species loss, climate change, groundwater
depletion, land degradation). However, these
thresholds are in many cases not yet fully
understood, nor are the environmental, social and
economic consequences of crossing them.
• Acting now makes environmental and economic
sense.
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (8)
Avoiding the consequences of inaction is affordable:
• Natural systems have “tipping points” beyond
which damaging change becomes irreversible
(e.g. species loss, climate change, groundwater
depletion, land degradation). However, these
thresholds are in many cases not yet fully
understood, nor are the environmental, social and
economic consequences of crossing them.
• Acting now makes environmental and economic
sense.
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (9)
Avoiding the consequences of inaction is affordable:
• Make pollution more costly than greener
alternatives;
• Value and price the natural assets and ecosystem
services;
• Remove environmentally harmful subsidies (e.g.
irrigation water; support to fossil fuels has been:
• OECD countries (production and use): 45-75 B U$
per year (OECD-IEA-WB).
• Developing and emerging economies: 400 B U$ in
fossil fuel consumer subsidies (in 2010, IEA).
OECD Environmental Outlook to 2050 –
The consequences of inaction (9)
Avoiding the consequences of inaction is affordable:
• Devise effective regulations and standards; e.g. to
safeguard human health or environmental
integrity, for promoting energy efficiency.
• Encourage green innovation; e.g. by making
polluting production and consumption modes
more expensive, and investing in public support
for basic R&D.