Download Innovation in Electric and Hybrid Vehicle - GHG

Innovation in Electric and
Hybrid Vehicle Technologies:
The Role of Prices, Standards
and R&D
Presentation by
Nick Johnstone and Ivan Haščič
(www.oecd.org/environment/innovation)
at
Joint IEA‐GHG‐TransPoRD workshop
GHG‐TransPoRD ‐ Reducing
greenhouse‐gas emissions of transport
beyond 2020: linking R&D, transport
policies and reduction targets
June 17+18th 2010, IEA, Paris
Introduction
• Major benefits of alternative fuel vehicles (AFVs):
– Local/regional air quality (NOx, CO, HC, soot, sulphur, lead)
– Climate change
– Energy security
• Background:
– Early efforts to improve “engine design” (fuel injection, etc.)
• Control of local air pollutant emissions (catalysts, etc.)
– Later efforts to improve “vehicle design” (aerodynamics, etc.)
– More recently, alternative propulsion & fuel (electric, hybrid, etc.)
Use of Patents as a Measure of
‘Environmental’ Innovation
• Identification of distinct fields of ‘environmental’
technology
– “Output” measure of innovation (unlike R&D expenditures or
scientific personnel)
– Possible to identify relevant inventions – approximately 70,000
different technology classifications in the WIPO IPC scheme
(www.wipo.org ) and over 150,000 in the EPO’s ECLA system
– Application-based - and thus broad population of potentially
relevant classes (preferable to commodity or sectoral
classifications)
– Through use of EPO/OECD PATSTAT database access to data
from over 80 offices ( > 80 million documents)
– Able to control for ‘quality’ by only including inventions with
wide market appeal
Innovation in Climate Change
Mitigation Technologies
11
Patenting activity in Annex I ratification countries
(3-year moving average, indexed on 1990=1.0)
10
9
8
7
Wind power
6
Fuel cells
5
Electric/hybrid cars
Lighting EE
4
Solar PV
3
Buildings EE
2
All tech. sectors
1
0
1997 - Kyoto Protocol
Note: Counts are measured in terms of ‘claimed priorities’ worldwide, shown as 3-year moving average, indexed to 1990=1.0. See
ENV/EPOC/WPNEP(2009)1/FINAL for methodology. Based on data extracted from EPO/OECD Worldwide Patent Statistical Database (PATSTAT)
using search algorithms developed by the OECD (www.oecd.org/environment/innovation). Source: Johnstone et al. “Climate Policy and
Technological Innovation ant Transfer” ENV/EPOC/GSP(2010)10)
Innovation Trends
(Patenting in motor vehicle technologies; change from 1990)
7,0
6,0
5,0
4,0
3,0
2,0
1,0
0,0
Counts are measured in terms of ‘claimed priorities’ worldwide, shown as 3-year moving average, indexed to 1990=1.0. See ENV/EPOC/WPNEP(2009)1/FINAL
for methodology (www.oecd.org/environment/innovation). Based on data extracted from the EPO Worldwide Patent Statistics Database (PATSTAT) using
search algorithms developed by the OECD.
Innovation Trends
(Patenting in motor vehicle technologies; 2000-2006)
Engine and vehicle design
not directly related to fuel
efficiency, 69%
Hybrid propulsion
35%
Electric propulsion
46%
Fuel cells
6%
Electricity
storage
11%
Gaseous
0.3%
Force
of nature
0.5%
Counts are measured in terms of ‘claimed priorities’ worldwide. See ENV/EPOC/WPNEP(2009)1/FINAL for methodology (www.oecd.org/environment/innovation).
Based on data extracted from the EPO Worldwide Patent Statistics Database (PATSTAT) using search algorithms developed by the OECD.
Inventing Countries in AFV
(Patenting in AFV technologies; change from 1990)
The line graph shows counts as 3-year moving average, indexed to 1990=1.0 (1992 for Korea due to low base in previous years). The pie chart shows shares for the period
2000-2006. Counts are measured in terms of ‘claimed priorities’ worldwide. See ENV/EPOC/WPNEP(2009)1/FINAL for methodology (www.oecd.org/environment/innovation).
Based on data extracted from EPO Worldwide Patent Statistics Database (PATSTAT) using search algorithms developed by the OECD.
Government Policies & Measures
• Market failures and barriers which affect markets for AFVs, incl.:
– Environmental externalities (local/regional, GHGs)
– Network effects and monopoly conditions (infrastructure)
– Consumption externalities (slow ‘uptake’ of innovations)
– Capital market failures (limited financing for high-risk investment)
• Instrument types
– Direct R&D support (public funding, fiscal incentives, prizes)
– Performance standards (portfolio obligations)
– Pricing (fuel taxes, vehicle tax differentiation)
– Information-based measures (labels)
– Demonstration projects, public procurement
– Investment in infrastructure
Public R&D Funding: 2004-2008
(% of Total Energy Technology R&D Public Budgets)
Source of data: OECDSTAT (http://stats.oecd.org) IEA Energy Technology R&D Budgets.
What is Driving Innovation in AFV
Vehicles?
The histogram shows empirical estimates of elasticities, evaluated at sample means, and normalized in terms of the effect of “public R&D spending” (R&D=1.0).
Estimates shown without fill are not statistically significant at the 5% level.
Conclusions and Policy Implications
• Optimal mix of policies:
– Address the different market failures (that is, cover the whole
range from development to diffusion of innovations)
• Design policies that have the potential to:
– ‘Force’ technology development (policy stringency)
– Induce ‘radical’ innovations (depth of incentives)
– Allow a spectrum of technological responses (policy flexibility)
– Maintain continuous commitment to the policy objective
(policy predictability)
Next Steps
• Further development of estimation of ‘storage’ technologies with
wide applicability
• Development of policy implications: trade-off between flexiblity
of policy vs. benefits/risks of targeting
Mitigation in
transportation
Policy flexibility
Information requirements, risk & uncertainty
Directed R&D:
How to avoid having to ‘pick’ winners
Alternative
fuels
Hydrogen
Propulsion
(battery, hydrogen,
flywheels, ultra-capacitors)
IC engine
Electric engine
Fuel cells
Vehicle design
- Inertia
- Friction
- Light-weighting
- Aerodynamics
- Rolling resistance
Energy storage
Propulsion
IC engine
Conventional
fuels
Battery
powered
Gasoline
Diesel
LNG, LPG