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News release from the Royal Society of New Zealand
Embargoed until 3am Tuesday 19 April 2016
New Zealand vulnerable to the threats of climate change – report finds
A report released today by the Royal Society of New Zealand highlights how New Zealand will be
impacted by climate change.
It finds that climate change, already underway, will almost certainly accelerate this century
unless drastic action is taken to reduce global emissions of greenhouse gases.
It identified six areas where global climate change could have significant implications for New
Zealand’s prosperity and well-being. These are risks to:
 our coastal margins
 flooding from rivers
 availability of and competition for freshwater
 changes to our surrounding oceans
 threats to unique ecosystems
 flow-on effects from climate change impacts and responses elsewhere, which will affect
New Zealand through our strong international connectivity.
Changes expected to impact New Zealand include at least 30cm and possibly more than one
metre of sea-level rise this century – the report finds it likely that the sea level rise around New
Zealand will exceed the global average, which will cause coastal erosion and flooding, especially
when combined with storm surges.
“Many New Zealanders live on the coast and two-thirds of us live in flood-prone areas so we are
vulnerable to these projected changes,” says Professor James Renwick, Chair of the Expert Panel
who wrote the report.
Even small changes in average conditions can be associated with large changes in the frequency
of extreme events, he says.
“With a 30cm rise in sea level, the current ‘1 in 100 year’ extreme sea event would be expected
to occur once every year or so in many coastal regions. Along the Otago coast for example, the
difference between a 2-year and 100-year storm surge is about 32cm of sea level.”
Changes in rainfall patterns where the ‘wet gets wetter and the dry gets drier’, together with
more frequent extreme events, will put pressure on our housing, infrastructure and industry,
especially if changes are rapid, the report finds.
Freshwater resources will also likely be put under pressure, with decreasing annual average
rainfall in eastern and northern regions of both islands, plus higher temperatures and increased
demand from urban expansion and agriculture.
Fire danger is also predicted to increase in many parts of New Zealand.
Changes in the oceans, including water temperature, acidification and currents will have impacts
on New Zealand’s marine life, including aquaculture. On land, existing environmental stresses to
New Zealand’s unique species will likely be exacerbated, with increased ranges for animal pests
and weeds predicted.
The report also considers New Zealand’s international connections and how trade relationships
and migration patterns could change.
Royal Society of New Zealand President, Emeritus Professor Richard Bedford, says the report
was sought to provide a clear summary of the scientific evidence and projections of climate
change and to identify the key risks these changes pose to New Zealand.
“It is critical to communicate clearly New Zealand’s sensitivities to climate change and the need
for responsive systems to address them. All New Zealanders will be affected and must be
involved in the discussion. We hope this report can act as a basis for a wider national
conversation.”
This report will be followed up soon by another expert panel report on how New Zealand can
mitigate the impacts of climate change.
Copies of the report and supporting resources can be found at
www.royalsociety.org.nz/climatechange
Key findings – New Zealand’s sensitivities to climate change
Coastal Change: New Zealanders live mainly near coasts
Shoreline ecology, public infrastructure, residential and commercial assets, community values
and the future use of coastal-marine resources will be severely affected by changes to coasts
due to sea level rise, and storm surge, and secondary effects such as erosion and flooding.
Flooding: many New Zealanders live on floodplains
Damaging flood events will occur more often and will affect rural and urban areas differently. At
and near the coast, floods will interact with rising sea levels and storm surges. Increasing
frequency and severity of high intensity rainfall events will increase these risks.
Freshwater resources: New Zealanders rely on the availability of freshwater
Increased pressure on water resources is almost certain in future. Decreasing annual average
rainfall in eastern and northern regions of both main islands, plus higher temperatures, are
projected to increase the frequency and intensity of droughts and the risk of wild fire. At the
same time, urban expansion and increased demand for water from agriculture will result in
increased competition for freshwater resources.
The Ocean: New Zealand is surrounded by sea
Changes in ocean temperature, chemistry, and currents due to climate change will have impacts
on New Zealand’s marine life, fishing, aquaculture and recreation use.
Ecosystem change: New Zealand has unique ecosystems
Over half of New Zealand’s more than 50,000 species are found nowhere else in the world; over
three quarters of the vascular plants, raising to 93% for alpine plants, and over 80% for the more
than 20,000 invertebrates. Existing environmental stresses will interact with, and in many cases
be exacerbated by, shifts in mean climatic conditions and associated change in the frequency or
intensity of extreme events, especially fire, drought, and floods.
International Impacts: New Zealand is affected by impacts and responses to climate change
occurring overseas
The ways in which other countries are affected by and will respond to climate change, plus
commitments New Zealand makes to international climate treaties, will influence New Zealand’s
international trade relationships, migration patterns and specific domestic responses.
Report launch
The launch for the findings of this expert panel is at 11am on Tuesday 19 April at the Royal
Society of New Zealand in Thorndon, Wellington. It will feature special international guest
Professor Jean Palutikof, Director of the National Climate Change Adaptation Research Facility
at Griffith University, Queensland. Professor Palutikof previously managed the production of the
Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Fourth Assessment Report for Working
Group II (Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability). Professor Palutikof will give a public talk in
Wellington that evening.
Climate Change Implications for New Zealand Panel Members
Professor James Renwick (Chair): Physical Geography Professor, Victoria University, Wellington
Dr Barbara Anderson: Rutherford Discovery Fellow, Landcare Research Manaaki Whenua,
Dunedin
Dr Alison Greenaway: Social Researcher, Landcare Research Manaaki Whenua, Auckland
Darren King: Environmental Scientist, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research
(NIWA), Wellington
Dr Sara Mikaloff-Fletcher: Atmosphere-Ocean Scientist, National Institute of Water and
Atmospheric Research (NIWA), Wellington
Dr Andy Reisinger: Deputy Director (International), New Zealand Agricultural Greenhouse Gas
Research Centre, Wellington
Dr Helen Rouse: Resource Management Scientist, National Institute of Water and Atmospheric
Research (NIWA), Christchurch
ENDS
For more information
Nancy de Bueger, Communications and Digital Engagement Advisor, Royal Society of New
Zealand, 04 470 5807, 027 458 8982 [email protected]
About the Royal Society of New Zealand
The Royal Society of New Zealand offers expert advice to government and the public, recognises
excellence in research and scholarship in science, technology and humanities, promotes science
and technology education, publishes peer-reviewed journals, administers funds for research and
fosters international scientific contact and co-operation.
www.royalsociety.org.nz