Survey
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
* Your assessment is very important for improving the workof artificial intelligence, which forms the content of this project
Technological singularity wikipedia , lookup
Embodied cognitive science wikipedia , lookup
Intelligence explosion wikipedia , lookup
Philosophy of artificial intelligence wikipedia , lookup
History of artificial intelligence wikipedia , lookup
Existential risk from artificial general intelligence wikipedia , lookup
Management in the Machine Age Artificial Intelligence and the Next-Generation Manager Findings and implications from a global study DND seminar: "Roboter og intelligente, lærende maskiner" Vegard Kolbjørnsrud, PhD, Senior Research Fellow Entering the age of intelligent machines "The second machine age" The rise of Artificial Intelligence (AI) and robotics is predicted to drive the biggest technology disruption in the workplace since the Industrial Revolution High probability of computerization, share of workforce US EU UK Sweden Finland Norway Denmark 47% 54% 35% 53% 35% 33% 50% Source: Brynolfsson and McAfee (2014), Frey and Osborne (2013), Frey, Osborne, Deloitte (2014), Fölster (2014), Pajarinen, Rouvinen, Ekeland (2015), Bruegel (2014) Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 2 Artificial Intelligence will radically change managers' work Artificial Intelligence and management • • Prior waves of new technology in the workplace have mainly impacted workers, rather than managers This is different. Artificial intelligence will radically change knowledge work incl. core management tasks such as decision-making, problem solving, planning, and reporting. A machine on your leadership team • In 2014 the Hong Kong VC firm appointed the intelligent algorithm VITAL* to its board and gave it voting rights in investment decisions • Has voted on a number of investments Source: fastcompany.com 3 Artificial intelligence combines multiple technologies into applications that can sense, comprehend, act, and learn Artificial Intelligence defined Comprehend Applications that can discern context, detect patterns, and make inferences NLP: Natural Language Processing Knowledge representation Affective computing Act Applications that can signal decision situations, make recommendations, express themselves, and potentially act autonomously Learn Applications that can adapt based on accumulated knowledge and experience Machine learning/pattern recognition Inference engines Expert systems NLG: Natural Language Generation Predictive analytics Computer vision Audio processing Sensor processing Underlying technology architectures Sense Applications that can observe and register their environment, people, and data Neural networking Security Cloud computing Connectivity Technologies Description Source: Bataller and Harris (2015) "Turning Cognitive Computing into Business Value. Today." Accenture Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 4 Managers and employers are not ready for the coming disruption… Challenges and questions • How will artificial intelligence impact managers' work? • What are the actions managers and employers must take to fully integrate the power of artificial intelligence into their organizations? ? 5 We have surveyed 1,770 managers from leading geographies on five continents and 17 industries Sample demographics: Geographies and industries 127 Retail 133 Life Sciences 38 Automotive Germany (158) 124 Industrial equip. China (152) India (169) Brazil (159) Australia (169) 51 Transport 40 Air & aviat. 36 Hosp. & trav Travel (116) Constr. & infr. Spain (159) USA (257) 120 40 Public Service 141 Health 131 EHT 127 Coms 128 115 Energy • • We have surveyed 1,770 managers about their work and readiness for artificial intelligence Broad sample across 14 countries on five continents and 17 industries – Utilities 100 Banking 134 Insurance 127 Other AIIT (411) Nordics* (140) UK (159) Ireland (120) France (152) CGS 58 The industries cover all five CSGs and most have sample sizes around 120, ensuring robust basis for statistical comparisons Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015 * Nordics: Norway (34), Sweden (37), Finland (36), and Denmark (33) Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 6 Artificial intelligence will change management as we know it Key topics • The end of administration • The next generation manager: Sharpening the human edge • Ready for the ride? Readiness and resistance in the ranks • Shaping the future: Learning to use learning machines 7 The end of administration Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 8 Managers spend most of their time on tasks that intelligent machines will do in the future… Time spent and expected impact of AI on management tasks Time spend Expected impact of intelligent systems (share of selections) Coordinate & control 54% Solve problems & collaborate 56% 30% People & community 7% Strategy & innovation 10% 31% 5% 8% Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015 Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, August-September 2015 What's special about this financial news article? It is written by an intelligent reporting engine …would you like it to draft your next management report? Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 10 The next generation manager: Sharpening the human edge Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 11 The greater the presence of machines, the greater the need for human judgement A call for judgment ? • It is amazing what AI can do with information, but some decisions require insight beyond what a information can tell • This is the sweet spot for human judgment – applying experience and expertise to critical business decisions and practices • Good judgement has always been important in executive leadership, but with routine tasks being absorbed by intelligent machines, judgement work will be at the core of the management role across all levels. • Judgment is a team sport. It is harnessed in teams and networks as diverse perspectives, insights, and experiences are brought together in collective judgment Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 12 The human edge: Social and creative skills Social/emotional intelligence High Human and machine advantage in performing cognitive tasks (with illustrations for managers) Develop people and community Human advantage Machine augmentation Solve problems and collaborate Low Coordinate and control work Machine advantage Machine augmentation and automation Low Routine work Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. Shape strategy and lead innovation Creative intelligence High Creative work 13 Managers recognize need for digital, creative, and analytical skills – ignoring people skills? New skills needed to succeed* Global Digital/technology 42% Creative thinking and experimentation 33% Data analysis and interpretation 31% Strategy development 30% Planning and administration #4 57% of managers are uncertain whether their #1are sufficient current skills to succeed in their role in five years' time. #5 23% 21% #2 People development and coaching 21% #2 Collaboration 20% Quality management and standards 20% Sharpen skills within my current domain of expertise 20% Performance management and reporting 17% People skills Social networking #6 Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015 * Which new skills will someone need to learn in order to succeed in your role in five years’ time? Please select up to 3 skill areas. Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 14 Managers recognize need for digital, creative, and analytical skills – ignoring people skills? New skills needed to succeed* Global Nordics Digital/technology #4 30% 42% Creative thinking and experimentation 33% Data analysis and interpretation #1 32% 31% Strategy development 23% 30% Planning and administration 23% #5 28% 18% 21% #2 31% People development and coaching 21% #2 31% Collaboration 20% Quality management and standards 20% Sharpen skills within my current domain of expertise 20% Performance management and reporting 17% 25% People skills Social networking 14% 17% #6 26% Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015 * Which new skills will someone need to learn in order to succeed in your role in five years’ time? Please select up to 3 skill areas. Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 15 Ready for the ride? Readiness and resistance in the ranks Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 16 Most expect artificial intelligence to make work more effective and interesting, but a third fear for their jobs Artificial intelligence as opportunity or threat? Opportunity vs. "Will make my work more effective and interesting"* Somewhat agree Strongly agree Top managers 35% 55% Middle managers 47% 38% First-line managers 49% 29% Total 45% 39% 90% 85% 79% 84% Threat "I fear that intelligent systems will threaten my job."** Somewhat agree Strongly agree 20% 24% 19% 39% 14% 38% 23% 8% 31% 22% 13% 36% Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015 * Intelligent systems will help me to become more effective in my work and focus more on interesting and impactful tasks. ** I fear that intelligent systems will threaten my job. Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 17 Lower level managers are much more skeptical about taking advice from machines than their bosses Trust in and comfort with… "Trust system advice in business decisions"* Strongly agree Top managers Total 42% 46% Middle managers First-line managers "Comfortable with intelligent system monitoring and evaluating my work"** Strongly agree 26% 24% 15% 14% 26% 26% • Top managers cannot assume that the rest of the organization are as open to using and trusting artificial intelligence as their own leadership team • They need to take this into account when they plan the change journey Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015 * I would trust the advice of intelligent systems in making business decisions in the future. ** I am comfortable with an intelligent system monitoring and evaluating my work. Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 18 Are we so skeptical in the Nordics that we will be leapfrogged by emerging economies? Trust in Advice from AI* Comfortable with System Monitoring and Evaluating My Work** Strongly agree Emerging 46% Developed Nordics Strongly agree Emerging 19% Developed 8% Nordics Americas 30% Europe (excl. Nordics) APAC 42% 28% 19% APAC 27% 42% Total 27% Max/Min Observations 6% India 14% Europe (excl. Nordics) Max/Min Observations Finland 19% Americas 18% Total 46% Sweden 56% 8% China 61% Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015 * I would trust the advice of intelligent systems in making business decisions in the future (e.g. an investment decision or deciding whom to hire or promote). ** I am comfortable with an intelligent system monitoring and evaluating my work. Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 19 Managers want machines to explain their logic before they will accept it What it takes to trust artificial intelligence What would allow you to trust system advice?* I understand how the system works and generates advice 61% The system has a proven track-record 57% The system provides convincing explanations 51% People I trust use such systems 33% Advice is limited to simple rule-based decisions 33% Nothing would allow me to trust advice generated by an intelligent system 6% Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015 * What would allow you to trust advice generated by an intelligent system? (Choose up to three) Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 20 Shaping the future: Learning to use learning machines Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 21 Intelligent machines will fill a variety of roles in management Roles of intelligent machines Reactive Proactive Assistant Advisor Actor • Taking notes • • • Scheduling Evaluating options • Reporting, maintaining scorecards Asking and answering questions • Making decisions Building scenarios • Challenging status quo • Likely path of AI evolution and adoption Source: Fuchs, R., Silverstone, Y., & Thomas, R. (forthcoming). "A machine in the c-suite," Accenture Strategy Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 22 How cognitive computing applications are developed and deployed is a matter of strategic choice Strategic choices • Should you lead the development in artificial intelligence or be a fast follower? • Should you seek to augment or automate managerial tasks and skills? • Who should own and exploit the data captured and algorithms generated by AI applications? • What does AI imply for executive responsibility for decision making (corporate governance)? Who should be responsible and/or accountable for computer-assisted decisions? Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved. 23 Imagine! Which artificial intelligence applications would you like to see? Experiment! How will you explore the possibilities of artificial intelligence? Strategize! How will you develop and deploy artificial intelligence applications and start the change journey in your organization? First report available online – more in the works Reading more…. URL: www.accenture.com/ManagersAndMachines or Google: "Managers and machines unite" Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved. 25