Download Management in the Machine Age

Management in the Machine Age
Artificial Intelligence and the Next-Generation Manager
Findings and implications from a global study
DND seminar: "Roboter og intelligente, lærende maskiner"
Vegard Kolbjørnsrud, PhD, Senior Research Fellow
Entering the age of intelligent machines
"The second machine age"
The rise of Artificial
Intelligence (AI) and robotics is
predicted to drive the biggest
technology disruption in the
workplace since the Industrial
Revolution
High probability of computerization,
share of workforce
US
EU
UK
Sweden
Finland
Norway
Denmark
47%
54%
35%
53%
35%
33%
50%
Source: Brynolfsson and McAfee (2014), Frey and Osborne (2013), Frey, Osborne, Deloitte (2014), Fölster (2014), Pajarinen, Rouvinen, Ekeland
(2015), Bruegel (2014)
Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved.
2
Artificial Intelligence will radically change
managers' work
Artificial Intelligence and management
•
•
Prior waves of new technology
in the workplace have mainly
impacted workers, rather than
managers
This is different. Artificial
intelligence will radically change
knowledge work incl. core
management tasks such as
decision-making, problem
solving, planning, and reporting.
A machine on your leadership
team
• In 2014 the Hong Kong VC firm
appointed the intelligent
algorithm VITAL* to its board
and gave it voting rights in
investment decisions
• Has voted on a number of
investments
Source: fastcompany.com
3
Artificial intelligence combines multiple technologies into
applications that can sense, comprehend, act, and learn
Artificial Intelligence defined
Comprehend
 Applications that can discern
context, detect patterns, and
make inferences
 NLP: Natural Language Processing
 Knowledge representation
 Affective computing
Act
 Applications that can signal
decision situations, make
recommendations, express
themselves, and potentially act
autonomously




Learn
 Applications that can adapt
based on accumulated
knowledge and experience
 Machine learning/pattern
recognition
Inference engines
Expert systems
NLG: Natural Language Generation
Predictive analytics




 Computer vision
 Audio processing
 Sensor processing
Underlying
technology
architectures
Sense
 Applications that can observe
and register their environment,
people, and data
Neural networking
Security
Cloud computing
Connectivity
Technologies
Description
Source: Bataller and Harris (2015) "Turning Cognitive Computing into Business Value. Today." Accenture
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4
Managers and employers are not ready for the
coming disruption…
Challenges and questions
•
How will artificial intelligence impact
managers' work?
•
What are the actions managers and
employers must take to fully integrate the
power of artificial intelligence into their
organizations?
?
5
We have surveyed 1,770 managers from leading
geographies on five continents and 17 industries
Sample demographics: Geographies and industries
127
Retail
133
Life Sciences
38
Automotive
Germany (158)
124
Industrial equip.
China (152)
India (169)
Brazil (159)
Australia (169)
51
Transport
40
Air & aviat.
36
Hosp. & trav
Travel (116)
Constr. & infr.
Spain (159)
USA (257)
120
40
Public Service
141
Health
131
EHT
127
Coms
128
115
Energy
•
•
We have surveyed 1,770 managers about their work and readiness for
artificial intelligence
Broad sample across 14 countries on five continents and 17 industries
–
Utilities
100
Banking
134
Insurance
127
Other
AIIT (411)
Nordics* (140)
UK (159)
Ireland (120)
France (152)
CGS
58
The industries cover all five CSGs and most have sample sizes
around 120, ensuring robust basis for statistical comparisons
Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015
* Nordics: Norway (34), Sweden (37), Finland (36), and Denmark (33)
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Artificial intelligence will change management as we
know it
Key topics
• The end of administration
• The next generation manager: Sharpening
the human edge
• Ready for the ride? Readiness and
resistance in the ranks
• Shaping the future: Learning to use
learning machines
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The end of administration
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Managers spend most of their time on tasks that
intelligent machines will do in the future…
Time spent and expected impact of AI on management tasks
Time spend
Expected impact of intelligent systems
(share of selections)
Coordinate &
control
54%
Solve problems
& collaborate
56%
30%
People &
community
7%
Strategy &
innovation
10%
31%
5%
8%
Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015
Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, August-September 2015
What's special about this financial news article?
It is written
by an
intelligent
reporting
engine
…would you like it to draft your next management report?
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10
The next generation manager:
Sharpening the human edge
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11
The greater the presence of machines, the greater
the need for human judgement
A call for judgment
?
•
It is amazing what AI can do with information, but some decisions
require insight beyond what a information can tell
•
This is the sweet spot for human judgment – applying experience
and expertise to critical business decisions and practices
•
Good judgement has always been important in executive
leadership, but with routine tasks being absorbed by intelligent
machines, judgement work will be at the core of the management
role across all levels.
•
Judgment is a team sport. It is harnessed in teams and networks
as diverse perspectives, insights, and experiences are brought
together in collective judgment
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The human edge: Social and creative skills
Social/emotional intelligence
High
Human and machine advantage in performing cognitive tasks
(with illustrations for managers)
Develop people
and community
Human advantage
Machine
augmentation
Solve problems
and collaborate
Low
Coordinate and
control work
Machine advantage
Machine augmentation
and automation
Low
Routine work
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Shape strategy
and lead
innovation
Creative intelligence
High
Creative work
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Managers recognize need for digital, creative, and
analytical skills – ignoring people skills?
New skills needed to succeed*
Global
Digital/technology
42%
Creative thinking and experimentation
33%
Data analysis and interpretation
31%
Strategy development
30%
Planning and administration
#4
57% of managers are
uncertain whether their
#1are sufficient
current skills
to succeed in their role in
five years' time.
#5
23%
21%
#2
People development and coaching
21%
#2
Collaboration
20%
Quality management and standards
20%
Sharpen skills within my
current domain of expertise
20%
Performance management and reporting
17%
People skills
Social networking
#6
Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015
* Which new skills will someone need to learn in order to succeed in your role in five years’ time? Please select up to 3 skill areas.
Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved.
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Managers recognize need for digital, creative, and
analytical skills – ignoring people skills?
New skills needed to succeed*
Global
Nordics
Digital/technology
#4 30%
42%
Creative thinking and experimentation
33%
Data analysis and interpretation
#1 32%
31%
Strategy development
23%
30%
Planning and administration
23%
#5 28%
18%
21%
#2 31%
People development and coaching
21%
#2 31%
Collaboration
20%
Quality management and standards
20%
Sharpen skills within my
current domain of expertise
20%
Performance management and reporting
17%
25%
People skills
Social networking
14%
17%
#6 26%
Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015
* Which new skills will someone need to learn in order to succeed in your role in five years’ time? Please select up to 3 skill areas.
Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved.
15
Ready for the ride? Readiness and
resistance in the ranks
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Most expect artificial intelligence to make work more
effective and interesting, but a third fear for their jobs
Artificial intelligence as opportunity or threat?
Opportunity
vs.
"Will make my work more effective
and interesting"*
Somewhat agree Strongly agree
Top managers
35%
55%
Middle managers
47%
38%
First-line managers
49%
29%
Total
45%
39%
90%
85%
79%
84%
Threat
"I fear that intelligent systems will
threaten my job."**
Somewhat agree Strongly agree
20%
24%
19% 39%
14% 38%
23% 8% 31%
22% 13% 36%
Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015
* Intelligent systems will help me to become more effective in my work and focus more on interesting and impactful tasks.
** I fear that intelligent systems will threaten my job.
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Lower level managers are much more skeptical about
taking advice from machines than their bosses
Trust in and comfort with…
"Trust system advice in
business decisions"*
Strongly agree
Top managers
Total
42%
46%
Middle managers
First-line managers
"Comfortable with intelligent system
monitoring and evaluating my work"**
Strongly agree
26%
24%
15%
14%
26%
26%
•
Top managers cannot assume that the rest of the organization are as open to
using and trusting artificial intelligence as their own leadership team
•
They need to take this into account when they plan the change journey
Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015
* I would trust the advice of intelligent systems in making business decisions in the future.
** I am comfortable with an intelligent system monitoring and evaluating my work.
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Are we so skeptical in the Nordics that we will be
leapfrogged by emerging economies?
Trust in Advice from AI*
Comfortable with System Monitoring
and Evaluating My Work**
Strongly agree
Emerging
46%
Developed
Nordics
Strongly agree
Emerging
19%
Developed
8%
Nordics
Americas
30%
Europe (excl. Nordics)
APAC
42%
28%
19%
APAC
27%
42%
Total
27%
Max/Min Observations
6%
India
14%
Europe (excl. Nordics)
Max/Min Observations
Finland
19%
Americas
18%
Total
46%
Sweden
56%
8%
China
61%
Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015
* I would trust the advice of intelligent systems in making business decisions in the future (e.g. an investment decision or deciding whom to hire or promote).
** I am comfortable with an intelligent system monitoring and evaluating my work.
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Managers want machines to explain their logic
before they will accept it
What it takes to trust artificial intelligence
What would allow you to trust system advice?*
I understand how the system works
and generates advice
61%
The system has a proven track-record
57%
The system provides convincing explanations
51%
People I trust use such systems
33%
Advice is limited to simple rule-based decisions
33%
Nothing would allow me to trust advice
generated by an intelligent system
6%
Source: Accenture Cognitive Computing in Management Survey, Aug-Sept 2015
* What would allow you to trust advice generated by an intelligent system? (Choose up to three)
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Shaping the future:
Learning to use learning machines
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Intelligent machines will fill a variety of roles in
management
Roles of intelligent machines
Reactive
Proactive
Assistant
Advisor
Actor
•
Taking notes
•
•
•
Scheduling
Evaluating
options
•
Reporting,
maintaining
scorecards
Asking and
answering
questions
•
Making decisions
Building
scenarios
•
Challenging
status quo
•
Likely path of AI evolution and adoption
Source: Fuchs, R., Silverstone, Y., & Thomas, R. (forthcoming). "A machine in the c-suite," Accenture Strategy
Copyright © 2016 Accenture All rights reserved.
22
How cognitive computing applications are developed
and deployed is a matter of strategic choice
Strategic choices
•
Should you lead the development in artificial intelligence or
be a fast follower?
•
Should you seek to augment or automate managerial tasks
and skills?
•
Who should own and exploit the data captured and
algorithms generated by AI applications?
•
What does AI imply for executive responsibility for decision
making (corporate governance)? Who should be
responsible and/or accountable for computer-assisted
decisions?
Copyright © 2015 Accenture All rights reserved.
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Imagine!
Which artificial intelligence
applications would you like to
see?
Experiment!
How will you explore the
possibilities of artificial
intelligence?
Strategize!
How will you develop and deploy
artificial intelligence applications
and start the change journey in
your organization?
First report available online – more in the works
Reading more….
URL: www.accenture.com/ManagersAndMachines or
Google: "Managers and machines unite"
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