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Human Impacts of Crises
This section of papers contains research that has focused on the impacts of the financial crisis as
seen on the ground. Findings rely on first-hand accounts and observations and are mostly at the
household level.
The World Bank Annual Report 2009
Affiliation:
World Bank
Location:
Europe and Central Asia
Time-frame:
2009
Methodology:
N/A
Key Findings: The effects of the crisis are being felt through three key transmission
mechanisms: financial, product, and labor markets. In the financial sector, rollover risks for
countries with large current account deficits have created a highly uncertain environment.
Industrial output is down, with some countries experiencing double-digit declines in early 2009
relative to 2008, and export demand has fallen sharply. Unemployment is on the rise, with
unprecedented job losses of as much as 1 percent a month in some countries and double-digit
unemployment forecast for others in the near future. Deep declines in remittances are expected
to push millions of people into poverty, with Albania, Armenia, Moldova, and Tajikistan
especially hard hit.
The World Bank directed $9.4 billion for Europe and Central Asia in fiscal 2009, $9 billion in
loans from IBRD and $384 million in IDA commitments, including $32 million in grants, covering
a combined total of 49 projects. In addition to financial support, the Bank continued to provide
research and analysis to client countries, including economic updates for individual countries
and the region as a whole.
3F CRISIS : IMPACT ON EDUCATION (3Fs – food, fuel and finance)
QUARTERLY MONITORING REPORT, APRIL-JUNE 2009/ UNICEF, Department of Education,
Research Input and Development Action in Nepal
Affiliation:
Location:
Children’s Education
Nepal
Time-frame:
April-June 2009
Methodology:
Monitoring mechanism: household, school and community-level in 22 schools
in 11 districts + rapid impact assessment.
Key Findings: 30% of HH have reduced expenditure on education materials; 3% of respondent
withdrew their children from school to send them to work and 23.8% reduced their children
attendance to part-time as coping strategy; in food insecure regions of Nepal both teacher and
pupil attendance dropped; hunger, higher involvement in work and reduced spending on
educational materials > lowering learning achievement for students. Family size and education
level of the mother matter when deciding upon education related coping strategies.
3F CRISIS : IMPACT ON EDUCATION (3Fs – food, fuel and finance)
QUARTERLY MONITORING REPORT, JUNE to mid-SEPTEMBER 2009/ UNICEF, Department of
Education, Research Input and Development Action in Nepal
Affiliation:
Location:
Children’s Education
Nepal
Time-frame:
June – mid-September 2009
Methodology:
Monitoring mechanism: household, school and community-level in 22 schools
in 11 districts + rapid impact assessment.
Key Findings:
 In the 3rd quarter of 2009, rising food prices are still a key issue of concern for communities;
but a slight recovery in terms of foreign employment can be observed, with an increase of
remittances compared to 2nd quarter of 2009.
 Several coping mechanisms which negatively impact upon children’s education have seen a
rate of decline between the 2nd and 3rd quarter of 2009, in particular the practice of
parents reducing their children’s attendance in school for the purpose of working.
 Nevertheless, many households affected by the 3F crisis still cope by increasing the burden
of work for children (mainly household work) and reducing education related expenses.
 Dalit households, households in the Karnali region, households who experienced food price
increases in the last three months, large households, poverty-stricken households, and
households using kerosene as a source for light are more likely to use education-related
coping mechanisms.
3F CRISIS : IMPACT ON EDUCATION (3Fs – food, fuel and finance)
QUARTERLY MONITORING REPORT, OCTOBER-DECEMBER 2009/ UNICEF, Department of
Education, Research Input and Development Action in Nepal
Affiliation:
Location:
Children’s Education
Nepal
Time-frame:
October-December 2009
Methodology:
Monitoring mechanism: household, school and community-level in 22 schools
in 11 districts + rapid impact assessment.
Key Findings:
 The use of coping mechanisms that negatively impact on children‘s education has remained
more or less stable between the third and fourth quarters of 2009; however, there has been
a slight increase in the practices of reducing educational expenses and sending children to
school to benefit from incentives.
 Some 14 per cent of parents took their children out of school for work (mainly household
work) at least once during the quarter. Average monthly student attendance has decreased
to 64 per cent this quarter compared to 67 per cent last quarter—this might be linked to an
increased incidence of child labour for agricultural work, owing to the harvesting season.
 Dalit households, households in the Karnali region, households who reported food price
rises as a major shock experienced in this quarter, large households, poverty-stricken
households, and households using kerosene as a source for light are more likely to take
education-related coping mechanisms to cope with the crisis. For example, 41 per cent of
Dalit respondents reduced educational expenses in this quarter.
Asian Development Bank Annual Report 2009
Affiliation:
ADB
Location:
Central and West Asia
Time-frame:
2009
Methodology:
Key findings: ADB strategy highlights logistics, transport, energy security and efficiency, urban
service (water, wastewater and urban transport), and reforms (government efficiency, access to
credit and capital markets development). The strategy is delivered through transactions
structured around debt and equity finance, guarantees, and grants. Technical assistance grants
train clients in planning, project management, monitoring, evaluation, and reporting with
emphasis on regional cooperation, environmental sustainability, climate change, and gender.
Disbursements rose to $2.2 billion with new landing for public sector reforms and projects rose
to $1.3 billion.
Botswana Brief on Effects of the Global Economic Crisis
Affiliation:
Location:
Time-frame:
Botswana
2008/2009
Methodology:
Key findings: The global economic crisis of 2008/2009 had several negative consequences on
Botswana’s economy. Overall, real GDP contracted by 6% following a revised growth rate of
3.1% in 2008 (Central Statistic Office, 2010). Although less severe than originally feared, a
significant number of business closed down and triggered job losses. Mining was the sector
most directly affected and was in fact the conduit through which the global recession was
transmitted to Botswana. As of March 2009, employment in mining and quarrying had declined
from 11 673 to 10 592, representing a decline of 9.3% while manufacturing recorded a slight
decline of half a percentage point, from 35 888 to 35 704 (Ministry of Finance and Development
Planning, 2010). These adverse developments have had repercussions on the welfare of poor
and vulnerable people in Botswana.
Hossain, N. (2009) Crime and Social Cohesion in the Time of Crisis: early evidence of wider
Impacts of Food, Fuel and Financial Shocks
Affiliation:
The Economic Policy and Advice Unit, UNDP Mozambique
Location:
Mozambique
Time-frame:
March 2009
Methodology:
Key findings: There is a consensus in the two studies that Mozambique appears to be relatively
insulated from the direct effects of the financial crises. The country’s financial markets are not
well integrated into the international financial system, and it has little exposure to complex
financial instruments. It is therefore unlikely that the country will experience any bankruptcy of
banks and liquidity crisis on the scale seen elsewhere. Economic growth is only projected to
suffer a relatively small decrease. The IMF lowers the forecast for economic growth in
Mozambique from 6.2 per cent in 2008 to 5.5 per cent in 2009.
Looking at four areas most likely to be direct affected by the financial crisis: Aid, Remittances,
FDI and Trade, the IMF assesses Mozambique’s overall vulnerability level to be medium. Other
countries in the region such as Malawi and Zambia are assessed to have high vulnerability levels
whereas Tanzania’s level is medium.
Analyse d’impact des effets de crise économique et des politiques de réponse sur les enfants
en Afrique de l’Ouest et du Centre Cas du Burkina Faso (2009)
Lacina Balma, Samuel Kaboré, Ismaël Fofana, Luca Tiberti et John Cockburn
Affiliation:
UNICEF using Egypt’s Information and Decision Support Centre analysis
Location:
Burkina Faso
Time-frame:
23 October 2009
Methodology:
The methodological approach used is a top-down/bottom-up framework,
which encompasses a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model
on the one hand, and a microsimulation module on the other hand. The CGE
model is used to simulate the various scenarios of external shocks or policy
responses, considering the production sectors and agents interacting within
the economy, as well as the labor market structure. Simulation results
generated by the CGE model (mainly the changes in prices, consumptions and
incomes) are then used within the microsimulation module in order to assess
the poverty impacts of scenarios on households and children. Monetary
poverty and caloric poverty impacts on children are measured using a
Quadratic Almost Ideal Demand System, while impacts on school
participation of children, child labor, and on children access to health care are
appraised through bivariate Probit econometric regression within the same
microsimulation module.
Key findings: Concern is to track the impacts of the 2008/09 global financial and economic crisis
on children in Burkina Faso by combining two types of analysis: one at the macro level and the
other at the micro level, and assessing the potential effects of consecutive policy responses.
Four channels through which the global economic crisis may have some significant implications
for the Burkina Faso economy are identified: trade (fall in the international demand and/or price
of cotton, modern manufactured goods and transport services), foreign direct investment,
remittances and foreign aid.
Findings show that, as regarding the monetary poverty criterion, the crisis engenders 1.7
percent increase in child poverty in 2009, 2.6 percent increase in 2010 and 1.7 percent increase
in 2011, compared to the Business as Usual (BaU) scenario. Considering the calorific poverty, the
number of poor children is expected to increase by 1.1 percent in 2009, 1 percent in 2010 and
0.8 percent in 2011. Foreign aid transferred in cash to poor families is revealed to be the most
efficient of the child-sensitive policy response if it is not shared with the other members of the
family.
Complementary Country Analysis – Kingdom of Swaziland
Affiliation:
Location:
UN, UNDAF
The Kingdom of Swaziland
Time-frame:
April 2010
Methodology:
The Complimentary Country Assessment (CCA)
Key findings: Country analysis prepared as the basis for mapping out the development
challenges that the Kingdom of Swaziland faces as well as for identifying the priorities to be
addressed under the new United Nations Development Assistance Framework (UNDAF) 20112015.
The analysis was undertaken by a team of technical staff drawn from the UN system in
Swaziland (the Policy Support Group – PSG). The UNCT identified nine themes for inclusion in
this analysis: sustainable economic growth; poverty reduction; human development and basic
service delivery; governance; HIV and AIDS; food security and nutrition; gender equality;
environment, and M&E and knowledge management.
Swaziland faces a steep climb in overcoming its own paradox: that of a middle-income economy
with the growth and development indicators of a poor country. Its abundant natural resources
have failed to yield appreciable benefits for the majority of the population, who remain without
adequate access to basic services. Its impressive growth over the past decade is at risk of
stagnation and even reversal, as the country suffers the impact of the food and fuel crises and
the already evident effects of climate change. Its human resources are straining under the
weight of inadequate skills development and an HIV and AIDS pandemic that has produced the
highest HIV prevalence in the world. And a complex skein of economic, legal and socio-cultural
factors conspires to deny women and girls the same rights, opportunities and status as those
enjoyed by their male counterparts.
L’impact de la crise financière internationale en Côte d’’Ivoire
Affiliation:
IMF, World Bank, Institute of National Statistics
Location:
Ivory Coast
Time-frame:
May 2010
Methodology:
Key findings: Le rapport de cette enquête attend d’être validé. Le PNUD en Côte d’Ivoire a
produit une étude de l’impact de la crise financière en Côte d’Ivoire (non encore diffusée) sur la
base des données macroéconomiques et d’un suivi des données trimestrielles du commerce
extérieur.
Au niveau Global - Globalement, l’impact de la crise financière internationale semble avoir été
limité sur l’économie ivoirienne sur le plan macro-économique tout au moins. La croissance a
été de 3,7% en 2009 comme prévu. Pour l’année 2010, le taux de croissance économique prévu
initialement à 4% a été ramené à 3% en raison de la crise de l’énergie et des tensions politiques
liées au processus électoral.
Au niveau des filières - Trois filières méritent une attention particulière à titre d’illustration en
raison des pertes des exportations qu’elles ont subies. Il s’agit des filières de l’hévéa, de l’huile
de palme et de l’exploitation forestière. Cette liste n’est donc pas exhaustive.
Au niveau local - Les données de terrain sont rares pour dire comment les populations et
surtout les groupes vulnérables sont affectés par les crises. Les canaux de transmission sont
connus : méventes des produits, perte d’emploi, difficultés d’accès aux crédits, faiblesse des
finances publiques pour répondre aux besoins en services sociaux de base etc. Au vue de la
situation de certaines filières, les zones de production de l’huile palme, de l’hévéa et de
l’exploitation forestière devraient être parmi les plus touchées.
Gender and Livelihoods of Migration: Kyrgyzstan 20095
Affiliation:
UNICEF CO Kyrgyzstan
Location:
Kyrgyzstan
Time-frame:
19 April 2010
Methodology:
Participatory poverty assessments which included both group-based
exercises (such as ranking techniques, time-trend/change analyses or cardbased exercises) and individual interviews. Participants in the assessments
were not selected randomly. Both the small size and the sampling process
mean that findings are illustrative rather than representative or
generalisable.
Key findings: This rapid assessment of the impact of the global financial and economic crisis on
poor and vulnerable households in Mongolia revisits the country following an initial study. The
assessment shows that although seasonal changes were dominant during this study, there is still
some evidence of economic slowdown among small businesses, tourism related businesses and
traders as well as self employed people.
Résumé Exécutif Commerce Transfrontalier et Sécurité Alimentaire dans le Bassin Ouest
Affiliation:
CILLS, FAO, FEWS NET, WFP
Location:
Gambia, Guinea, Guinea Bissau, Senegal, Kayes region in Mali, Mauritania
Time-frame:
22 April 2010
Methodology:
Key findings: De bassin ouest – défini comme le système de marchés d’une zone englobant la
Gambie, la Guinée-Bissau, la Guinée, le Sénégal, la Mauritanie et l’ouest du Mali- est parcouru
par des flux commerciaux de longue distance qui sous tendent les systèmes de vie et les
mécanismes de survie des ménages vulnérables à l’insécurité alimentaire. Ces flux
transfrontaliers s’organisent de façon à répondre à la forte demande émanant des zones
urbaines de la côte, et notamment des zones urbaines de l’ouest sénégalais. Quand ils
fonctionnent sans entrave, les flux commerciaux d’huile de palme, de bétail, d’anacarde et
d’arachide sont autant d’opportunités permettant aux ménages du bassin d’assurer leur sécurité
alimentaire et à faire face aux crises.
La configuration du système commercial présente à la fois des contraintes et des opportunités
pour la sécurité alimentaire. Les marchés du bassin ouest sont caractérisés par une structure
oligopolistique, potentiellement pénalisante pour le producteur et le consommateur. Les filières
liées au marché mondial - riz importé et anacarde - sont fortement concentrées, conférant une
forte influence à un nombre limité d’acteurs. L’omniprésence de réseaux dans le commerce de
gros témoigne de rigidités dans l’entrée et la sortie du marché. En revanche, l’importance du
lien social entre détaillant et consommateur favorise la sécurité alimentaire : la pratique de la
vente à crédit par les détaillants de céréales, très répandue, permet aux ménages vulnérables de
défendre leur accès alimentaire en période de crise. Les marchés disposent d’une capacité de
réponse avérée en cas d’augmentation de la demande, en particulier pour les denrées
importées. Les places de Dakar, de Touba (Sénégal) et de Bassé Santa Su (Gambie) fonctionnent
comme marchés-directeurs dans l’espace pour le riz importé. Kaolack (Sénégal) est le marché
leader pour le mil. Les marchés de la périphérie du bassin – et de la Guinée en tourmente semblent moins ancrés au centre du système.
Les chocs économiques et politiques qu’a connus le bassin depuis 2007 ont influencé sa
capacité à soutenir la sécurité alimentaire. La hausse des prix de 2008 et la crise économique
mondiale de 2009 ont réduit les volumes et les marges des grossistes, renforçant le caractère
oligopolistique du commerce en gros. En désorganisant le flux des produits tropicaux vers le
nord, la crise en Guinée aura fragilisé l’accès alimentaire des producteurs de rente de la forêt.
L’amélioration avérée des disponibilités en céréales dans le bassin depuis 2007 – en particulier
en riz local – témoigne d’un système en mutation et d’opportunités pour la sécurité alimentaire
des ménages. Sans ambigüité, l’action publique influence la performance des flux
transfrontaliers, avec des conséquences évidentes sur la sécurité alimentaire.
L’étude identifie une série d’indicateurs à suivre qui permettront de déceler des risques à la
sécurité alimentaire des ménages. En particulier, on suivra avec attention le devenir du Sénégal,
principal foyer de la demande, ainsi que l’évolution des taux de change dans le bassin. Cette
étude plaide également en faveur d’un renforcement des systèmes d’information nationaux et
régionaux, condition d’une action publique efficace.
Food prices: smallholder farmers can be part of the solution, IFAD Report
Affiliation:
IFAD
Location:
World
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Key findings: Recent price volatility on international markets is putting pressure on global food
security. For the 2 billion people who live and work on small farms in developing countries, life
has become more precarious. But with the right investments, policies and development
programmes in place, smallholder farmers have a huge potential to increase food production,
improving their lives and contributing to greater food security for all.
Initiative on Soaring Food Prices, Nov-Dec 2008
Mission Findings and Recommendations, Inter-Agency Assessment Mission
Affiliation:
The Interagency Assessment Mission, FAO, WFP, World Bank, IFAD
Location:
Egypt
Time-frame:
February 2009
Methodology:
Macroeconomic analysis and review of poverty in Egypt; review of safety
nets, food security, nutrition, and vulnerability concerns; agricultural sector
analysis and response capacity
Key findings: In the wake of soaring food prices, and in the context of the FAO-led Initiative on
Soaring Food Prices (ISFP), an Inter-Agency Assessment Mission took place from 17 November
to 4 December 2008. The 12-member mission covering various disciplines relevant to assessing
the poverty, food security and the nutrition situation in Egypt, was conducted in close
collaboration with the Government of Egypt and the UN Country Team.
Egypt faces a number of challenges in maintaining national food security. Declining per capita
water resources are a major concern. A high dependency on international cereal markets. Rapid
economic growth helped mitigate the impact of high food prices on lower-middle income
groups, but did not help the extreme poor. In spite of a large subsidy programme, many
households remain food insecure. Nutritional status is worsening. Egypt responded to soaring
food prices in expanding the already large food subsidy system. The trade policy response to
soaring food prices includes a rice export ban. Egypt’s ‘supply response’ capacity is limited.
Inflation rates surged to unprecedented levels.
GIEWS Country Brief – Guinea Bissau (2010)
Affiliation:
Global Watch, FAO
Location:
Guinea-Bissau
Time-frame:
16 April 2010
Methodology:
Key findings: Food security snapshot:
 Cereal production increased by 4 percent in 2009
 Inflation decreased significantly in 2009 thanks to improved food supply.
 Marketing of cashew, the main source of cash income for rural household, has improved
The United Nations System in Argentina
Contributions to the Secretary-General's GIVAS report
Affiliation:
Global Watch, FAO
Location:
Argentina
Time-frame:
May 2010
Methodology:
Key findings: After six years of sustained economic growth, in 2009 the Argentine economy
experienced a deceleration in the activity, representing a year-to-year increase of GDP of 0.7%.
Throughout that year, private capitals were persistently transferred abroad, though this
phenomenon was combined with a significant excess in the trade balance, keeping the financial
system in equilibrium. In this context, in the last quarter of 2009, the Argentine economy began
showing signs of recovery in the economic activity which resulted in the beginning of a period of
recuperation. Besides, during this period there has been a relatively stable financial and
exchange rate evolution.
Until the first part of 2009 the Argentine economic crisis took the shape of a recession that was
nowhere similar to the 2001 – 2002 collapse. In the short term, the country has managed to
relatively smoothen the impact of the global financial crisis by increasing market regulations,
launching policies to stimulate demand and prioritizing social protection networks.
MIGRATION AND THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS: BANGLADESHI CONTEXT
Affiliation:
Global Watch, FAO
Location:
Bangladesh
Time-frame:
May 2010
Methodology:
Key findings: While there has not been any assessment in Bangladesh to measure the effects,
some signs of the impact have been evident over the year, particularly in the country’s export
sectors and overseas employment. It is important to note that there is contradictory
information coming out from different sources, which indicates a lack of a more organized and
systematic assessment being done of the situation.
The impact has predominantly been four pronged, which includes: a) reduced overseas
employment for Bangladeshi labour; b) return of Bangladeshi workers employed abroad; c)
enforcement of restrictive immigration policies in destination countries; and d) effects on
remittance flow.
Despite the risks of a lagged response to a weak global economy, Bangladesh has fared quite
positively during the heart of the crisis. In the overseas employment sector, there has not been
a mass return of workers from abroad and the inflow of remittance also did not register a sharp
decrease. On a net basis, workers are still going abroad for work, albeit perhaps at a pace much
slower than the record numbers registered during the last 2 years. Remittances are also
expected to remain more resilient than private capital flows and are forecast to become even
more important as a source of external financing in many developing countries. Policy response
could involve efforts to facilitate migration and remittances to make these flows affordable,
safer and more productive for both the sending and receiving countries.
Hunger Context – 06 March
Affiliation:
WFP
Location:
Liberia
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Key findings: In order to draw insights for actions to address hunger, the analysis has utilized
the framework adopted for understanding food security and nutrition in Liberia (MOA, Food
Security and Nutrition Strategy, 2008) which describes four dimensions of food security: food
availability; access to food; utilization of food; and vulnerability. The interaction of these four
dimensions ultimately determines the nutritional status of an individual (see figure 1). Several
national level factors within the socio-economic and political environment in Liberia are critical
to food security:—including the degree to which peace can be maintained, commitments to
ensuring respect for human rights and develop sufficient human resource capacity. Moreover,
the whole range of issues related to the national economy and the efficiency with which
markets operate and trade is conducted are critical to the food security and nutrition situation.
The framework highlights the broad issues that although not directly linked to the key
determinants, must be supportive if food security and improved nutrition is to be achieved and
sustained. The conceptual framework describes broad issues starting with the socio-economic
context to provide the basis for proposing actions for addressing hunger and proceeds to
identify the food insecure groups, where they are located and why they are food insecure
including the risk factors that pre-dispose them to food security.
Global Financial Crisis Discussion Series Paper 18: Mozambique Phase 2 (ODI)
Carlos Castel-Branco and Rogério Ossemane
Affiliation:
ODI
Location:
Mozambique
Time-frame:
February 2010
Methodology:
This paper assesses the impact to date of the global crisis in Mozambique by
exploring the main transmission channels, namely, external trade,
remittances and inflows of private and official capital, and further analysing
subsequent impacts on several fiscal and monetary aspects, external
balances, sector performance, investment and employment. The paper
provides a critical analysis of the anti-crisis measures that the country has
been taking and their potential impacts on the country’s growth prospects.
Key findings: The growth rate in Mozambique fell from 6.8% in 2008 to an estimated 6.5% in
2009 (according to the government of Mozambique (GoM)), lower than the 7% growth rate
projected for 2009 before the crisis. This paper also finds that the resilience of the economy to
the crisis comes from its main structural weaknesses. Given that the policies adopted by the
GoM to deal with the crisis and those projected for 2010 do not address these structural
problems, the paper concludes by agreeing with the IMF (2009) statement that, while
Mozambique has weathered the global crisis relatively well, it will also benefit less from the
global recovery.
Available data suggest that the impact of the global crisis on the Mozambican economy will be
minor. So far, the real GDP growth rate has reached 6.1%, 0.7 percentage points below the 2008
growth rate. With the exception of exports, most of the potential transmission mechanisms of
the crisis have not been effective, as both private and official net inflows of external money
have increased. The overall balance of payments is showing an improvement. However, some
sectors have clearly felt the negative impacts. Transport and communications, tourism and
manufacturing have been the most affected, with more than 800 jobs lost by June 2009. Other
sectors have shown immunity to the crisis, with agriculture, financial services, water and
electricity and construction some of the most impressive.
IFAD’s response to rising food and energy prices (IFAD Report)
Affiliation:
IFAD
Location:
World
Time-frame:
2008
Methodology:
Key findings: IFAD recognizes the need for a concerted, comprehensive and coordinated effort
by the international community. It played an active role in the High Level Task Force on the
Global Food Security Crisis, established by the United Nations Secretary-General in April 2008.
The task force produced a Comprehensive Framework for Action, which aims to ensure that the
international effort is well planned and coordinated. IFAD now hosts the Rome hub of the
Secretariat of the task force.
Impact of the Economic Crisis on Trade, Foreign Investment, and Employment in Egypt, Arne
Clau
Affiliation:
Location:
Time-frame:
Methodology:
International Labour Organization / Sub-Regional Office for North Africa in
Cairo and the American Chamber of Commerce in Egypt
Egypt
February 2010
Timely and reliable data to judge the impact of the global crisis on Egypt’s
economy in general and its labour market in particular is scant. The main
national source of employment, labour market and industrial data is the
Central Agency for Public Mobilization and Statistics (CAPMAS), which is the
only institution that provides comprehensive data on every aspect of the
economy.
Key findings: Egypt provides an example how exports, employment, and foreign investment in
an increasingly open emerging economy responded to the global economic and financial crisis.
GDP growth rates, peaking at over 7% before the crisis, fell to just over 4%. Egypt’s merchandise
exports were severely hit by the recession in the EU and the U.S. and experienced a drastic fall
during the first months of 2009. Services exports, in particular income from tourism and fees for
using the Suez Canal, fell strongly. Inflows from foreign direct investment, which before the
outbreak of the crisis were a major contributor to capital formation, fell by nearly 4% of GDP.
Remittances from workers abroad decreased drastically, and inflows from official development
aid also fell.
Egypt also provides an example where problems, inefficiencies and challenges in the labour
market prior to the global crisis were aggravated during the crisis. As a result of the global crisis,
the official unemployment rate increased by about one percentage point, to 9.4%, which brings
Egypt back to the levels of five years before the crisis. It appears that vulnerable group such as
women, the low-skilled, and the young, were hit particularly hard. In the twelve months
following the beginning of the crisis in Egypt, the female unemployment rate increased from
18.8% to 23.2%, while unemployment among men even decreased, from 5.4% to 5.2%. In the
absence of a well-functioning unemployment insurance, many of those who lost their jobs end
up in the informal sector. Moreover, the labour force increased by only 400,000 between July
2008 and July 2009 (instead of the usual 700,000), indicating that large numbers of people were
discouraged from seeking employment or, where possible, opted to stay in the education
system. The lack of stronger social dialogue hindered finding solutions to the crisis in tripartite
agreements. Given all these developments, Egypt also provides an example where the upward
trend of the “classical” indicator of unemployment reflects only to a small extent developments
on the labour market during a crisis.
Implications of the Global Financial and Economic Crisis on the Tourism Sector in Egypt
Dr. Mohaya Zaytoun, Maha Abdel Hakim, Ahmed Heiba
Affiliation:
Location:
Egypt
Time-frame:
January 2010
Methodology:
The FY 2008/2009 is considered in the study to be a counterpart of the crisis
period. Nonetheless, analysis of the quarterly and monthly official statistics
reveals more detailed information of the crisis impact. The study has also
undertaken a hotel sample survey (HSS) covering the Egyptian hotel sector,
in order to highlight the crisis impact utilizing primary data and direct
information which cannot be easily obtained from published statistics.
Key findings: The main objective of this study is to examine the impact of the global financial
and economic crisis (GFEC) on Egyptian tourism generally and on tourism employment in
particular. The importance of this examination stems from the fact that tourism is one of a few
dynamic sectors within the Egyptian economy, and it is also an economic activity highly
connected to world market and external demand. The crisis therefore is most likely to exert a
crucial impact on employment in the tourism sector which is essentially a service sector. The
study has finally presented tourism workers' viewpoint on the crisis impact. It is claimed that
workers dismissal has not been a rare event, particularly during the early period of the crisis
where uncertainty and confusion prevailed.
G20 Country Briefs – India’s Response to the Crisis
International Labour Office
Affiliation:
ILO
Location:
India
Time-frame:
April 2010
Methodology:
Key findings: In the years preceding the crisis, the Indian economy was among the fastest
growing in the world, with annual real growth in gross domestic product (GDP) averaging about
9.6 per cent in the 2005–2007 financial years (ending March 31). Growth slowed slightly to 9 per
cent in 2007–2008, with a further drop as the crisis took hold to 6.7 per cent in 2008–2009
(figure 1). However, growth picked up later in the 2009 calendar year, with GDP expanding by an
estimated annualized rate of 7.9 per cent during July to September. The Indian economy has
proved relatively resilient in the face of the global economic crisis. India’s large domestic
market, along with government fiscal measures, a number of social programmes and a strong
banking system have helped to cushion the impact of the drop in demand in export markets.
Nonetheless, the crisis initially led to job losses, particularly in export-oriented industries such as
textiles and gems and jewellery. For example, figures from a survey of enterprises in badly
affected sectors indicate that employment fell by 491,000 during the last quarter of 2008
(October-December), with further falls evident in the second quarter of 2009. India’s economy is
on course to strengthen from last year, with GDP growth forecasts ranging from 7.2 per cent to
7.75 per cent for the 2009–2010 financial year.
Such numbers, however, provide a partial picture, as they cover only selected industries and
relate mainly to formal employment. The situation is much harder to track in the informal
economy, which accounts for most employment in India. While estimates vary according to
definitions, about 86 per cent of India’s more than 500 million workers are in informal
employment and over 90 per cent are in what is known as the unorganized sector. These shares
have changed little in recent years, indicating that India’s strong and steady growth has not yet
yielded a significant improvement in terms of broadening access to quality employment.
IMF Country Report No.09/209Kyrgyz Republic
2009 Article IV Consultation and First Review under the 18-Month Agreement under the
Exogenous Shock Facility – Staff Report; Staff Supplement; Public Information Notice and
Press Release on the Executive Board Discussion; and Statement by the Executive Director for
the Kyrgyz Republic
Affiliation:
IMF, World bank
Location:
Kyrgyz Republic
Time-frame:
11 May 2009
Methodology:
Key findings: The outlook for the Kyrgyz economy has worsened as the region has been swept
up by the global economic crisis. The crisis is hurting the Kyrgyz economy mainly through trade
and remittance channels. Russia and Kazakhstan remain key trading partners of the Kyrgyz
Republic and the main source of remittances. With these countries in recession, Kyrgyz growth
is expected to almost come to a halt this year, before recovering modestly in 2010. Inflation has
come down sharply to 13.6 percent in March 2009, as world commodity prices eased, and is
expected to slow further to about 10 percent by year-end.
IMPACT OF THE CURRENT FINANCIAL AND ECONOMIC CRISIS ON THE DEVELOPING COUNTRIES
IN THEIR EFFORTS TO ACHIEVE THE EDUCATION FOR ALL (EFA) GOALS
Affiliation:
UNESCO
Location:
Paris
Time-frame:
26 February 2010
Methodology:
Key findings: UNESCO’s Education Sector has monitored the impact of the crisis on the
education sector of its Member States since its outbreak. Although signs of economic recovery
have started to emerge, it is feared that the aftershock of economic turmoil will be profound in
social sectors and continue beyond 2010. The effects of the crisis on education have been
increasingly felt. When UNESCO conducted a quick survey in 50 countries in March 2009, the
overall conclusion was then that the impact of the crisis on government budgets for education
was not significant in most developing countries covered by the survey. The case studies for 12
countries conducted in August 2009 gave a somewhat different picture: education budgets were
still resilient in most surveyed countries, but several governments had been revising downwards
their budget to reflect the decline in revenue. A more recent work was carried out in November
2009 to assess how schools and households were affected by budget cuts. The main findings of
these assessments and from other information sources are summarized in the report.
Impact of Financial Crisis in Mozambique
Affiliation:
Location:
Mozambique
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Key findings: The financial crisis’ main impact will be felt in the real economy. The reduction of
global demand, driven by the recession effect, will pressure world commodity prices to fall. In
Mozambique, the most direct impact on macro-economic variables will be seen in the external
accounts. Commodity prices fall in the form of reduced prices of natural resources will reduce
the export volume of Mozambique. Since 30% of Mozambican imports are oil related and the
country remains a net food importer, the fall of oil and food prices may on the other hand
improve the trade balance, thus reducing the effect of imported inflation. However the negative
effect of the decline of prices and reduced demand for the main export commodity, aluminium,
is expected to offset the positive impact, resulting in a deeper current account deficit in 2009.
The severe impact of the crisis on South Africa, Mozambique’s main trading partner, is likely to
aggravate the negative effect in the trade balance.
Growth is expected to slow down to 6% in 2009, either through the negative effect of the crisis
on the export-led mega-projects, or by impacting on the new drivers of growth. The crisis will
deepen the budget financing gap and increase reliance on donor and external financing, if
further domestic revenue generation is not mobilized. Mozambique’s very weak fiscal flexibility
and vulnerable external liquidity position as well as its fiscal and balance of payments reliance
on donor grants represent endogenous weaknesses that may undermine the country’s capacity
to react to the current financial crisis.
Mozambique’s high dependence on donor support and concessional loans means that if there
were to be a sustained decline or interruption in aid due to the financial crisis, this would have a
devastating effect on the external liquidity of the country.
Asian Development Bank Annual Report 2009 Impact and Policy Responses Bangladesh, Sri
Lanka, Nepal, Bhutan, Maldives
Manu Bhaskaran and Ritwick Ghosh
Affiliation:
ADB, Centennial Asia Advisors
Location:
Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Maldives
Time-frame:
4 January 2010
Methodology:
Key findings:
 The Bangladesh economy has shown encouraging resilience in 2008/20091, with real GDP
growing by 5.9%, only 0.3 percentage points below that of the previous year. These figures
suggest that Bangladesh has barely been impacted by the crisis but deeper analysis finds
some areas where the economy did not perform as well.
 The Sri Lankan economy has undergone a tough 2008 and 2009. Economic woes were
accompanied by a civil war disrupting the normal way of life. However in the last few
months optimism has gradually set into the economy as the crisis seems less threatening
and the internal conflict reaches a conclusion. The country’s GDP recovered in 2Q09 and
would probably improve further in the rest of 2009 (Table 2.1). Twin factors of the IMF loan
and the end of the civil war helped Sri Lanka narrowly avoid a Balance of Payments crisis.
Both foreign reserves and the equities market are back to stable positions upheld by
rebounding investor sentiments.
 Nepal has remained fairly resilient in the face of the global financial crisis. The country’s real
GDP growth moderated slightly in 2008/09 (Table 3.1).
 Bhutan’s economy has barely been touched by the global recession as the economy has few
linkages with the rest of the world.
 As a small island nation, the Maldives has a limited domestic market and is therefore heavily
dependent on external developments.
INPUT FROM IRAN FOR SG'S GIVAS REPORT
Affiliation:
Location:
Iran
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Key findings: Reductions in trade have led to general fall in incomes (especially for exporters)
and so reduced employment generation. Vulnerable groups have been first to suffer (poor;
unskilled workers; women workers - in the exporting sectors). Also, secondary effects on
children expected; combined with sanctions, there have also been higher transaction costs of
imports (pushing on domestic inflation). The general effect is a reduction in GDP growth (to 2%
in 2009) and actual falls in income for the lower income groups in the informal sector (which
may make up to 50% of the economy). The chronic inflation has also reduced real income and
purchasing power of the poorer (without real compensation from the national safety net). The
total effects are significant for the vulnerable in Iran (which according to Government recently
are all those living below the minimum wage - or about 30 million persons). Much of all this has
been recorded in media.
Post-Distribution Monitoring Report WFP Kyrgyzstan
Affiliation:
United Nations
Location:
Kyrgyzstan
Time-frame:
May-July 2009
A standardized questionnaire was used to gather data on a range of
Methodology:
livelihoods indicators and WFP’s food distribution process and use of
rations. Training sessions were organized for the relevant staff of the
partner organizations that included introduction to food security, and
thorough explanation of questionnaire, survey tools and general interview
guidelines. Standardized questionnaire was administered to 1,446
households selected through simple random sampling. Face-to-face
interviews were carried out with the informed member of the household by
WFP and CPs’ monitors. Approximately, 47% of respondents were women.
Key findings: In mid-2008, the UN Country Team in the Kyrgyz Republic, concerned about the
impact of the harsh winter in 2007/2008, and the subsequent drought over the summer of
2008, asked WFP to do a food security assessment in the country. In October and November
2008 WFP carried out the analysis of the information from the Kyrgyz Integrated Household
Survey from January 2006 to the first quarter of 2008 (the latest information available at that
time), and a study with questionnaires and focus groups of the food security of the population
living in the periphery of Bishkek city. These surveys found that approximately 35% of the
households in Kyrgyzstan were food insecure with 20% out of them being severely food
insecure. Upon the request of the Government of the Kyrgyz Republic, WFP designed a project
to ensure that vulnerable households in the poorest areas of the country would have enough
food to meet their minimum needs over the winter and early spring period, and to ensure that
they did not have to sell productive assets in order to buy food.
THE IMPACT OF RISING FOOD PRICES ON DISPARATE LIVELIHOODS GROUPS IN KENYA
Affiliation:
The Kenya Food Security Steering Group (KFSSG)
Location:
Kenya
Time-frame:
July 2008
Methodology:

Assessment of different data sets and information. A livelihood
database developed by the technical working group of the KFSSG with
more than 500,000 records was used as the framework of analysis. It
provided information on typical expenditure patterns within livelihoods,
consumption patterns, sources of incomes, coping strategies and
seasonal livelihood strategies and complementary options.
 Other information included crop data from MoA, the early warning
market prices from MoA, FEWSNET, FAO and WFP, macro-economic
and poverty indicators and thresholds from KIHBS, the joint monthly
food security reports from GoK, FEWS NET and WFP, the post
distribution food security monitoring data and reports from WFP, the
global early warning and food security indicators from FAO and local
reports from NGOs.
Key findings: The sustained rise in food and non-food prices is expected to accentuate food
insecurity among the most vulnerable livelihood groups especially the urban, pastoral and
marginal agricultural households. Domestic food supply, in particular maize, is expected to
tighten significantly in Kenya during the July 2007-June 2009 marketing year. Long rains maize
production in 2008 is projected at 2.12 million MT, comparing unfavourably with 2007 long rains
output 2007 of 2.52 million MT. Although total maize production (short and long rains) for 2007
was estimated at 2.7 million MT, the MoA reported considerable pre- and post harvest losses of
up to100.000 MT, thus reducing overall carryover stocks. The expected reduction in maize
output in 2008, which will likely sustain the current upward pressure on prices, has resulted
from a complex combination of factors.
Who are the most vulnerable to the price increases?
• The urban livelihood is considered most vulnerable to price, production and labor shocks
because virtually all household food and non food needs are purchased from the market.
• The rural poor who do not own enough land for subsistence, and rely upon other sources of
income.
Poverty rates are particularly high in Coast Province, the south-eastern marginal farming areas,
the agropastoral areas of in the northwest and large areas of Western and Nyanza Provinces.
• People living with HIV/AIDS –the highest prevalence reported in Western and Nyanza
Provinces.
• Practicing pastoralists, whose terms of trade are deteriorating as the rise in the price of food
and non-food commodities supersedes the rise in livestock prices.
• Pastoralists that have dropped out of the pastoral economy after losing livestock.
• Vulnerable populations presently dependent upon free food assistance (IDPs in the Rift Valley
and northern Kenya, refugees in the camps in North Eastern and Turkana, and drought-affected
families situated principally in the arid and semi-arid districts).
Liberia Market Price Monitor – Bulletin 7 (March 2010)
Affiliation:
Location:
Time-frame:
Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring System, Ministry of Agriculture,
WFP
Liberia
March 2010
Methodology:
Key findings:
• Seasonal farming activities have begun amidst declining supply of local rice in Liberian
markets. Prices are increasing for local produce;
• Prices for imported rice declined in the domestic market as the global rice supply and prices
continued on a downward trend that started earlier in 2010. The domestic prices for
imported rice remain considerably lower than the 2009 price levels;
• Terms of Trade in the agricultural sector improved in all domestic markets, especially for
casual labourers. The exception to the trend is Pleebo market, which recently experienced
an upsurge in prices of imported rice.
Liberia Market Price Monitor – Bulletin 6 (February 2010)
Affiliation:
Location:
Time-frame:
Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring System, Ministry of Agriculture,
WFP
Liberia
February 2010
Methodology:
Key findings:
• Stocks of local rice from the 2009/10 harvest are still available leading to relatively lower
prices as compared to imported rice with low demand for imported rice in areas of high
agricultural production;
• Improvement in Terms of Trade in 2010 as compared to 2009 are improving household food
access;
• Continued downward trend in global prices for rice.
Liberia Market Price Monitor – Bulletin 5 (January 2010)
Affiliation:
Location:
Time-frame:
Food Security and Nutrition Monitoring System, Ministry of Agriculture,
WFP
Liberia
January 2010
Methodology:
Key findings:
• Local rice from the previous harvest still remains relatively cheaper than imported varieties
most likely leading to lowered demand for imported rice in agriculturally productive areas;
• Cocoa prices continue with an upward trend in the global and local markets providing a
possibility for foreign inflow earnings to the economy;
• The local currency is once again weakening against the US Dollar, making imported
commodities more expensive and possibly neutralizing the global reduction in rice prices
witnessed in Jan 2010.
EGYPT AND THE GLOBAL ECONOMIC CRISIS: A PRELIMINARY ASSESSMENT OF MACROECONOMIC IMPACT AND
RESPONSE
Affiliation:
Location:
Time-frame:
Social and Economic Development Group, Middle East and North Africa
Region, World Bank
Egypt
16 August 2009
Methodology:
The objective of this note is to provide a preliminary assessment of the
impact of the crisis on Egypt and of the policy response to it. It is based on
three technical background documents. The first quantifies the overall
impact using sector and long-term growth data. The second analyzes the
short-term fiscal, monetary and exchange-rate policy choices that Egypt
faces. The third reports on the results of a survey of 200 Egyptian firms
probing their sales, employment, capacity utilization, and investment in
recent months. The present note provides an integrative synthesis of the
background work.
Key findings:
1) There exists a high correlation between the rates of economic growth in Egypt and the OECD
countries; this correlation tends to be even higher during global recessions. Indeed, the sharpest
falls in Egyptian growth tend to occur following US recessions. Based on these correlations, we
expected economic growth to be just above 4 percent during FY09 and slightly higher (between
5.2 and 5.4 percent) in FY10.
2) The survey of private firms reveals a fall in output but not a corresponding reduction, so far,
in labor or capital utilization. Hence, the initial impact of the drop in external demand is showing
up as a decrease in labor and capital productivity. Consequently, real production costs per unit
of output have increased.
3) Our analysis of the employment elasticity of growth suggests that unemployment will rise to
about 10 percent during 2009-10.
4) Public debt sustainability exercises are very sensitive to nominal GDP growth assumptions;
thus, in the near term, the factors that contributed to the rapid fall in public debt in the past few
years are not likely to operate.
5) The main constraint to Egypt’s growth in the short run is more likely to arise from the balance
of payments.
6) Factor productivity falls during periods of unsustainable policies (excessive public spending,
public deficits relying on inflation tax financing, overvalued currencies and large current-account
deficits) while it tends to increase in periods of economic reform that lead to higher private
investment.
Country case study on the Impact of the Global Financial Crisisin Asia and the Pacific
Case of MONGOLIA , Tuvshintugs Batdelger (PhD)
Affiliation:
Location:
Social and Economic Development Group, Middle East and North Africa
Region, World Bank
Time-frame:
Mongolia
29 August 2009
Methodology:
Key findings:
 Mongolia has been hit hard by the current worldwide economic and financial crisis. We
believe that Mongolia’s increasing dependence on primary goods’ exports made the country
vulnerable to external shocks at the onset of the crisis.
 The crisis affected Mongolia primarily through a sharp deacrease in its terms of trade.
 Mongolia’s expansionary monetary policy between 2004 and 2007 led to sharp increases in
inflation in 2008, reaching at one point 33%. Mongolia’s trade revenue from copper, coal
and zinc decreased significantly in the second half of 2008, which resulted in over USD 1
billion trade deficit. The trade deficit has put national currency Togrog under significant
pressure to devalue.
 Latest survey on poverty indicated that the poverty incidence did not decrease substantially
during the last five years of high economic growth, which stands at 35.2% as of 2008. The
Government of Mongolia’s major strategy to combat the poverty concentrated on providing
financial assistance to the poor through social assistance programs. We expect the current
economic crisis will have a significant negative effect on poverty incidence since economic
growth is expected to be in 2% range in 2009.
 The current economic crisis is decreasing the accessibility of poor to the health care
services. Although primary health care is provided for free to all, it is a common practice for
patients to pay extra fees out of their pockets. Overall, there is a very limited data evidence
on how the economic crisis is affecting the health care. The number of registered patients
slightly increased by 1.6% in the first half of 2009 in comparison to the same period in 2008.
 Spending on social safety nets increased drastically during the years of high economic
growth. Current economic crisis is negatively affecting the financing of these programs.
 We believe that the effect of the crisis on the real economy is still being realized. In
particular, unemployment increased significantly in the first six months of 2009. Although
official data shows unemployment level of 3.4 percent, it is widely accepted that this official
data significantly underestimates the true unemployment level.
Impact of the economic crisis and food and fuel price volatility on children and women in the
MENA region (ODI Working Paper 310)
Nicola Jones, Caroline Harper, Sara Pantuliano and Sara Pavanello, with Kim Kyunghoon, Shreya
Mitra and Katie Chalcraft
Affiliation:
ODI
Location:
MENA Region
Time-frame:
November 2009
Methodology:
This report is based on a desktop review of published and grey literature on
the impacts of the crisis at regional and country level, as well as an analysis
of existing macroeconomic and socioeconomic quantitative indicators over
time. In order to compensate for these data limitations, we have provided
more in-depth (but still brief, given time and resource constraints) analysis
of six ‘snapshot’ countries, which were selected in order to highlight the
diversity of economic, political and socio-cultural country contexts.
Key findings:
The current financial crisis, which began in mid-2008 in the developed world, has had a major
adverse impact on economic performance in Europe and North America in particular.
Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) countries have entered
recession, with increasingly visible contagion effects in the rest of the world. Some
macroeconomic indicators of the global downturn in Europe and Asia are showing initial signs of
stabilisation (EIU, 2009), but the effects of the crisis with regard to poverty and vulnerability in
both the developed and the developing world are likely to continue for some time. For instance,
the World Bank estimates that the ‘Triple F’ crisis (food, fuel and finance) will increase the
number of global poor by between 53 and 64 million people in 2009, based on estimates of
those living on less than $2 and $1.25 per day, respectively (Chen and Ravallion, 2009).
Meanwhile, the UK Department for International Development (DFID) estimates that an
additional 90 million people will be living on less than $1.25 per day by the end of 2010 (McCord
and Vandermoortele, 2009). The financial crisis has followed on the back of a period of
significant increases in food and fuel prices in 2008 (especially in Q2 and Q3). International food
and fuel prices have since declined, but domestic prices have often not fallen in line with these,
meaning that consumers and producers still face higher prices than pre-crisis (Blas, 2009;
Holmes et al., 2009). The temporary price increase was beneficial for countries that are net
exporters of food/fuel, and countries that saved these windfall gains are better placed to
respond to the financial crisis (e.g. Kazakhstan and its National Fund). Countries that are net
importers, however, suffered from the price increases and are now being hit again by the
financial crisis.
Although the global downturn has already had differential impacts on different countries within
the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, to date there has been no comprehensive
review of the impact of the economic crisis on women and children in the region. The MENA
region comprises a diverse range of countries with very different assets and social and political
conditions.
UNDP/RCC Policy Note on the Soaring of Food and Oil Prices in Mongolia: Causes,
Consequences and Responses at the Macro level
Affiliation:
UNDP, RCC
Location:
Mongolia
Time-frame:
November 2009
Methodology:
Key findings: The causes of the rise in food and oil prices in Mongolia are multidimensional.
The analysis indicates that the current inflation rate is the highest in the decade in Mongolia. It
is also the highest in the region. Since food items have largest weight in the CPI and also as
prices of food items have risen at a relatively higher rate compared prices of other items in the
CPI, the high inflation in Mongolia is primarily due to the increase in food prices.
The poorest households spend about 70% of their income on food and their ability to meet most
essential expenditures for health and education is severely compromised. In addition,
diminished purchasing power has severely impaired the capacity of the poor households to seek
health care, and children education, particularly for girls. The high food price is likely to
undermine the poverty reduction gains. Without an urgent intervention Mongolia might miss
some of the MDG targets.
THE CURRENT GLOBAL ECONOMIC ENVIRONMENT AND ITS IMPACT ON THE DOMESTIC
ECONOMY
PAPER TO FACILITATE THE SEVENTH SESSION OF THE WTO MINISTERIAL CONFERENCE: GENEVA,
SWITZERLAND, 30 NOVEMBER- 2 DECEMBER 2009
Affiliation:
WTO
Location:
Time-frame:
23 November 2009
Methodology:
Key findings:
This economic paper is mainly aimed at facilitating the upcoming Seventh
Session of the World Trade Organization (WTO) Ministerial Conference to be held in Geneva,
Switzerland, 30 November- 2 December 2009. The paper highlights the impact of the financial
crisis on the global environment and further elaborates the negative effect on the domestic
economy. The global impact is analyzed according to the major developed economies.
International and Regional developments - Impact on the USA Economy, Impact on Japan
Economy, Impact on the Euro zone Economies, Impact on Asian Economies, Impact on Emerging
and Developing Economies. Bail-out Plans in Developed Economies - Domestic Economy and
Outlook, Trade Developments, Monetary Developments (inflation, interest rates and exchange
rates).
Poor rural people can be part of the solution (IFAD)
Affiliation:
IFAD
Location:
World
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Key findings: The international community has agreed on four building blocks of response to
climate change: adaptation, mitigation, technology and financing.
Mission Conjointe Gouvernement/Agences du SNU/ONG Save The Children UK
IMPACT DE LA HAUSSE DES PRIX SUR LES CONDITIONS DE VIE DES MENAGES ET LES MARCHES
DE OUAGADOUGOU ET DE BOBO-DIOULASSO
Affiliation:
IFAD
Location:
Bobo-Diaoulasso, Burkina Faso
Time-frame:
July 2008
Methodology:
L’impact négatif de cette flambée des prix concerne surtout les acheteurs
nets de produits alimentaires. Ces acheteurs nets se trouvent plus dans les
villes que dans les villages. C’est l’une des raisons qui justifient le choix de
réaliser une étude d’impact dans les villes. Les ménages de ces villes vont
ressentir cet impact sur leurs conditions de vie. A travers une approche
d’analyse des communautés, des ménages, des marchés et des facteurs
macro-économiques à la fois régionaux et internationaux, l’étude s’est
orientée vers certaines dimensions des conditions de vie des ménages telles
que la sécurité alimentaire, la nutrition, la santé et l’éducation. L’étude
applique une approche qualitative du fait des contraintes en termes de
temps et de moyens. Pour la vérification des informations recueillies,
l’approche par la triangulation été utilisée.
Key findings: Les recommandations. Au vu de la dégradation très sensible des conditions de vie
des ménages urbains enquêtés, la mission conjointe recommande : (i) une assistance d’urgence
aux ménages les plus touchés au cours des six prochains mois ; (ii) des mesures à moyen et long
terme pour répondre aux défis et opportunités que la hausse des prix des produits de base a mis
en avant.
 A court terme, les mesures d’assistance devraient toucher trois groupes : indigents,
ménages très pauvres et ménages pauvres. Les indigents sont des individus totalement
démunis : ils devraient bénéficier d’assistance alimentaire et d’une prise en charge totale de
leurs frais de santé. Les ménages très pauvres et pauvres devraient bénéficier de coupons
d’alimentation et de bons de santé. Un dépistage actif de la malnutrition et une distribution
de savon devraient être mis en place à l’attention de ces deux groupes cibles. De plus, les
ménages pauvres, qui, au contraire des ménages très pauvres, ont des enfants scolarisés,
devraient bénéficier d’une subvention des frais de scolarisation (cotisation parents
d’élèves). Le renforcement des cantines scolaires pourraient également bénéficier aux
groupes des ménages pauvres.
 A moyen et long terme, la protection sociale devrait être développée à travers l’appui et le
renforcement de la Politique Nationale d’Action sociale (PNAS). Il s’agit de développer des
systèmes d’assurance sociale (privés ou publiques) mais aussi des systèmes de transferts
sociaux non contributifs. La PNAS devrait cibler particulièrement les groupes vulnérables.
Des mesures devraient être adoptées pour favoriser la consommation de produits
burkinabè, améliorer la commercialisation et la transformation des produits agricoles
locaux, dynamiser la création d’emplois, faciliter l’accès au crédit. L’activité agricole
périurbaine devrait également être appuyée.
Rising Food Prices and Financial Crisis in India: Impact on Women and Children and ways for
Tackling the Problem
S.Mahendra Dev - Chairman, Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, Government of India
Affiliation:
UNICEF
Location:
India
Time-frame:
January 2009
Methodology:
Key findings: In the last few years, there has been a significant increase in global food prices
due to several structural and cyclical factors. The global cereal prices increased 150 per cent
during 2005 to second quarter of 2008. Although there was a decline in food prices in the
second half of 2008, these prices are still higher than those in the beginning of this decade. India
is less exposed to outside world in the case of food grains and other commodities. The increase
in food prices in India was much lower as compared to sharp increase in global prices due to
various measures. Cereal prices in India increased only 23 per cent as compared to global price
increase of 150 per cent during 2005 to 2008. However, the food prices in the last two years
have been higher than those in the period mid-1990s to 2004. Presently, the inflation for food
articles (more than 10%) is higher than the general inflation (below 6%). The volatility in food
prices is likely to continue and would harm the poor.
Apart from the problem of rise in food prices, India is also facing the adverse impact of global
financial crisis since the 3rd quarter of 2008. The current financial crisis originated in the
financial sector of the United States and is being transmitted to countries around the world
through several channels. The sub-prime mortgage lending and collapse of housing market,
flawed regulatory systems have affected the financial institutions around the world. India has
largely avoided the impact on banking system. However, the crisis has adverse impact on
liquidity situation and the economic growth in India. This in turn can have adverse affect on the
poor and food security of the country.
The objective of this study is to examine analytical issues that would identify the pathways of
the effects of the rising food prices and financial crisis on households, particularly women and
children. It also outlines desirable macro and sectoral, in particular social protection, policies
and measures that would mitigate the negative effects and would have the strongest effect on
protecting levels of living of the households, in particular on nutrition, health, education and
enhance child protection.
Rapid Multi-Sector Needs Assessment
Affiliation:
Location:
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Office of the Resident Coordinator, United Nations Kyrgyzstan
Kyrgyzstan
November 2009
This report is based on the findings of a Rapid Multi-sector Needs
assessment (RMSNA), carried in every oblast in the country. In larger oblasts
(in terms of population), two survey districts were selected at random; in
smaller oblasts, one survey district was selected. In each district, a subdistrict (ayilokmotu) was also selected. In Bishkek, data was collected in
Dordoi novostroika (new settlement), identified in a recent World Bank
study2 as one of the poorest districts in the capital. A combination of
qualitative and quantitative data collection methods were used to gather
information to provide a ‘snapshot’ of the current situation for the most
vulnerable inhabitants of these districts, in relation to (1) Household income
and expenditure, (2) Migration, (3) Agriculture, (4) Food security, (5) Energy,
(6) Education, (7) Healthcare, (8) Other basic services (such as irrigation,
drinking water, refuse collection).
Key findings:



The moderate economic growth witnessed recently in the Kyrgyz Republic has slowed down
due to the global economic crisis. This has affected the volume of production and foreign
trade, and has led to a decline in state budget revenues. In real terms, it has also resulted in
a reduction in incomes as a result of job losses and wage cuts because of reduced output in
export oriented sectors, and a sharp decline in remittances from labour migrants. Positive
changes observed over the past five years in the economic and social sectors are under
threat. Joint mobilisation of the state, business and civil society is required to ensure that
they are not reversed.
Social transfers, incomes from hired work, remittances from migrants and income from
kitchen gardens are the main sources of income for the disadvantaged households surveyed
here.
Nominal incomes increased this year compared to last due to higher income from farming






(this year’s weather was more favourable for farming than last year). Baseline pensions and
salaries of civil servants have also been raised this year.
Nevertheless, increased prices and the negative influence of the economic crisis – principally
experienced as a fall in income from remittances – led to a reduction in real incomes this
year compared to last.
Reduction in household incomes has affected their purchasing ability; this in turn will affect
local markets.
At the same time households have begun to adopt coping strategies such as reducing
expenditure on celebrations, funerals, equipment, tools, seeds, livestock, repayment of debt
, education, construction, house repairs and payments to hired workers and medical
services.
One third of the respondents had to borrow money, most often for agricultural production.
Many reported an unmet need for assistance in the form of microcredit and agricultural
services
The breakdown of household expenditures changed, with more being spent on cheaper
foods, taxes, and utilities, and less on more expensive foods, social events, education and
medical services.
A majority of surveyed respondents anticipated that their incomes would fall next year due
to higher prices of food and services, and decreased income from the sale of agricultural
produce.
SECONDARY DATA REVIEW ON THE FOOD SECURITY SITUATION IN THE KYRGYZ REPUBLIC
Agnès Dhur, Food Security Analysis Service, World Food Programme
Affiliation:
WFP
Location:
Kyrgyz Republic
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Key findings: Kyrgyzstan is a small landlocked country, predominantly mountainous, with an
estimated population of 5.2 million people. There is clear divide between the north and south of
the country. Fertile crop areas are limited to valleys and mostly located in the south particularly
the Ferghana Valley). Industries are rather found in the north, where the population presents
better economic and social indicators than the rest of the country. The country is prone to
several natural disasters, including earthquakes which have occurred at the end of 2007 and in
October 2008.
GOVERNMENT SHORT-TERM GROWTH STRATEGY HOW TO RESPOND TO THE IMPACT OF THE
GLOBAL FINANCIAL CRISIS BY THE GOVERNMENT OF THE KINGDOM OF SWAZILAND
Affiliation:
IFAD
Location:
Swaziland
Time-frame:
24 August 2009
Methodology:
Key findings: The Government of Swaziland, like many governments across the world realizes
the economic hardships brought about by the global economic meltdown. This has seen the
decline in the economic activity which has triggered a slowdown in the production levels,
increases in the unemployment levels and a poor performance of the tourism industry.
The purpose of this paper therefore, is to suggest a policy instrument to counter the effects of
the crisis. This countercyclical intervention is meant to have an immediate impact, should be
designed to stimulate future economic growth as well as induce domestic aggregate demand.
The strategy proposed is a short term capital investment on infrastructure development that
will provide an enabling environment for investment flows, creation of jobs, promotion of
exports and ultimately raise the standard of living of the Swazis. The paper highlights a number
of projects which could be considered as candidates for the implementation of the E 5 billion
fiscal stimulant package by Government.
The impact of the global economic meltdown was not so evident in 2008 but has crippled
prospects for higher growth. As a result, lower export earnings, reduced consumer spending,
higher oil prices and slowing private sector investment were experienced during the year as the
economy began to feel the impact of the global financial crisis. Real GDP growth is estimated to
have decelerated to 2.4 percent in 2008 from 3.5 percent in 2007 largely because of a decline in
manufacturing, agriculture, mining, construction and wholesale and retail sectors, owing to
the high domestic inflation and restrictive monetary policy. The Forecast for 2009 indicates a
further poor performance with a growth rate of 0.4 percent, whilst it is expected that it may
recover to 2.7 percent for 2010. In response, the Government proposed number of investments
in combination with private investments to revitalize country’s economy.
Soaring food prices and the rural poor: feedback from the field (IFAD)
Affiliation:
IFAD
Location:
World
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Key findings: Feedback from many countries suggests that increasing fuel prices are a major
driving force behind rising food prices. This has affected both input prices and transport costs. In
Kenya for example, the cost of the most commonly used fertilizer has more than doubled over
the last year. In Azerbaijan, soaring petroleum prices have contributed to the increase in prices
of most agricultural crops: on one hand, by raising input costs, on the other, by boosting
demand for agricultural crops used as feedstock in the production of biofuels. The high fuel
costs have also led to a doubling of freight rates, contributing to further increases in food import
bills. In South Africa and neighbouring countries, petrol prices nearly doubled. In one of those
countries, Mozambique, food price increases have clearly followed increases in transportation
costs.
In a few countries, such as Kenya and next-door Uganda, and Chad, civil unrest has also
undermined both production and transportation of foodstuffs, and has played an important role
in pushing up prices. But in the final analysis, food prices are ultimately determined - today as
they have always been - in large part by production levels, and in a number of countries, rising
prices reflect above all else unfavourable agro-climatic conditions. Drought was a key factor
behind prices rises in Chad and Tanzania. Mozambique, in contrast, was hit by floods. Ghana
suffered a triple disaster of drought, flood and then drought again, with the northern part of the
country particularly affected by floods. In Angola too, the main cereal producing area was hit by
both drought and flood. Frost hit parts of the Middle East: Jordan’s cereal production was
adversely affected by this, and in Syria, wheat production is expected to fall in 2007-08 to 1.8 Mt
against a yearly average of 2.5 Mt, because of combined drought and frost. What we now know
about climate change suggests that these factors will become ever more important as
determinants of production levels, food prices, and food security for poor rural people.
EGYPT BEYOND THE CRISIS- MEDIUM TERM CHALLENGES FOR SUSTAINED GROWTH Social and Economic
Development Group, Middle East and North Africa Region
Affiliation:
Affiliation:
Location:
Location:
Time-frame:
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Key findings:
Methodology:
In the three years preceding the recent crisis, Egyptian GDP growth averaged over 7 percent
per year. The adoption of market-oriented policies, together with a boom in commodity prices
and in capital inflows lifted growth to unprecedented levels during three consecutive years.
Foreign direct investment flowed into the country and capital formation turned into the driver
of growth. The virtuous circle of growth, capital flows, and investment seemed to have no end.
The future seemed to have finally arrived in Egypt. There were some signs of trouble, however:
rising inflation, an appreciating currency, and high unemployment rates, especially among
women. These challenges seemed manageable, and the diagnosis was that the trickle-down
effect from growth would allow polishing off these rough edges. However, the global crisis that
hit Egypt in mid 2008, and the subsequent revision of expectations raises questions on the
extent to which the adverse global economic surrounding would affect Egypt, on the country’s
growth prospects and on the policy options ahead.
Main results of the paper: The analysis of Egyptian growth since the 1990s shows that: a) there
are clearly differentiable boom busts periods associated with capital flows that have common
elements; b) the boom periods are associated with rising total factor productivity (TFP), marketoriented reforms, trade liberalization, and fiscal contraction;
However, the growth
decomposition exercise shows that capital accumulation is the driver of growth in Egypt, while
TFP is secondary. Hence, the capital-intensive nature of the Egyptian economy is confirmed.
The Triple Crisis and the Global Aid Architecture
UNU-WIDER, Working Paper No. 2010/01
Tony Addison, Channing Arndt and Finn Tarp
Affiliation:
UNU-WIDER
Location:
World
Time-frame:
January 2010
Methodology:
Key findings: The global economy is passing through a period of profound change. The
immediate concern is with the financial crisis, originating in the North. The South is affected via
reduced demand and lower prices for their exports, reduced private financial flows, and falling
remittances. This is the first crisis. Simultaneously, climate change remains unchecked, with the
growth in greenhouse gas emissions exceeding previous estimates. This is the second crisis.
Finally, malnutrition and hunger are on the rise, propelled by the recent inflation in global food
prices. This constitutes the third crisis. These three crises interact to undermine the prosperity
of present and future generations. Each has implications for international aid and underline the
need for concerted action.
UNCT Mozambique Situation Report: Response to Rising Food Prices
Affiliation:
UNCT Mozambique
Location:
Mozambique
Time-frame:
August 2008
Methodology:
Key findings: Approximately 70 percent of the population in Mozambique lives in rural areas
and nearly 80 percent of the labour force is primarily involved in agriculture and livestock.
Although Mozambique has registered substantial growth in agricultural production, it remains a
Low Income Food Deficit Country that annually imports an average of 470,000 metric tons of
wheat (100 percent of internal demand), 320,000 metric tons of rice (75 percent of internal
demand), and some 100,000 metric tons of maize (to cover demand in the south). These staples
are consumed mainly in the urban areas, where the transmission of international price
fluctuations is more pronounced and profound.
A broad analysis of the impact of the global increase in food and fuel prices in the Mozambican
context carried out in June 2008 by the Ministry of Planning and Development (MPD) with the
support of the World Bank and IMF, indicates that price shocks are likely to have a greater
negative impact in urban areas as well as in the southern region of the country. Rural areas are
partially insulated from price increases due to the role that household production plays in
household consumption, with the exception of the southern region that lacks a similar cushion.
A modelling exercise conducted by the MPD to estimate the impact of soaring food and fuel
prices on the poverty situation indicated that these combined effects could result in an overall
increase in the poverty headcount from 51.5% to over 58%, thus reversing recent gains in
poverty reduction and threatening the achievement of the second poverty reduction strategy
(PARPA II) target of reducing the poverty headcount to 45% in 2009.
Recovery with a Human Face Rapid Assessment Questionnaire on Crisis Responses – UNICEF
Mozambique
Affiliation:
UNCT Mozambique
Location:
Mozambique
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Key findings:
The medium- and long-term impact of the international financial crisis on
services for children and women remains uncertain, particularly as the State Budget is highly
dependent on international assistance. With 53 per cent of the 2009 State Budget composed
of external aid, any retraction in donor funding – whether from aid or private capital flows –
will have a significant negative impact on child development as the related sectors are highly
dependent on international assistance. While donor support via direct budget support is
expected to increase slightly in 2010, reductions in assistance to sector common funds have
already been observed. The education common fund (FASE) was particularly affected, with a
25 per cent reduction of pledged funds in 2010 as of September 2009 (MTEF 2010-2012). The
Government was quick to react to this cutback by increasing internal commitments to
compensate the drop observed in the sector. In addition, UNICEF, as sector chair in the SWAp,
has steered a successful campaign to leverage at least US$ 5 million for FASE from various
donors to alleviate the budget reduction. Nonetheless, there has been a 10 per cent reduction
in the total envelope targeting social sectors between 2009 and 2010 (from 45 per cent to 35
per cent) (Information based on a comparison between the MTEF 2009-2011 and MTEF 20102012). While the State Budget proposal for 2010 has yet to become available, the orientation
observed in the MTEF 2010-2012 is likely to be maintained in the State Budget in 2010. The
impact of these budget cuts on children is yet to be measured.
UNIFEM - A NEEDS ASSESSMENT OF WOMEN MIGRANT WORKERS CENTRAL ASIA AND RUSSIA
(2009)
Affiliation:
UNIFEM
Location:
Central Asia and Russia
Time-frame:
2009
Methodology:
Key findings: The survey organized by UNIFEM is aimed at identification, needs and level of
legal protection of women migrant workers from three Central Asian republics, Kyrgyzstan,
Tajikistan and Uzbekistan, prior to, during and upon competition of their labour migration in
Kazakhstan and Russia.
 Causes of labour migration – recent changes in labour market; significant changes in the
social and economic status of women, as the Soviet-era concept of gender equality was
abandoned in favour of patriarchal views and stereotypes of women’s role as wives,
mothers and housewives; demographic factor (rapid growth of population in K, T, U with
lack of employment opportunities, with aging population in K and R); economic difficulties
and low wages; recent negative social changes – where women choose labour migration as
a survival and adaptation strategy. Motivation is similar to men – women migrate for
economic reasons.
 The assessment shows that institutional support for migration processes exists at four
levels: state institutions; private institutions dealing with migration issues; informal
institutions; and non-governmental organisations (NGOs).
 Problems and opportunities: legal status of migrant workers in the destination countries;
status in the labour market; informal employment; difficult working environment; low
wages; high competition in the market; long working hours; dangerous working
environments; illegal migrants – victims of fraud; exploitation of human and labour rights of
migrants.
 The impact of migration on the families of migrant workers: remittances (average $100-500
per month, average salary up to $500); family left behind in the country of origin or
accompanying migrants to the destination countries.
Voices of the Vulnerable in the Pacific Summary Note
Prepared for UN Secretary General Update Report
Affiliation:
UN
Location:
Fiji, Kiribati, Marshall Islands, Micronesia, Palau, Samoa, Solomon Islands,
Tonga, Tuvalu, Vanuatu (good HH survey results and qualitative data)
Time-frame:
Methodology:
Key findings: Approximately one in four to five households or one in three to four of
population are estimated to be living below the national basic needs poverty lines. An estimate
of additional number of people who are vulnerable to falling into poverty has been calculated
based on the proportion of the population with per capita expenditure less than 10% above the
Basic Needs Poverty Line. In Kiribati, for example, the number of vulnerable population would
be 2,907 in South Tarawa and 1,325 in rural Gilberts, representing, 7.4 % and 3.4% of population
respectively. Additionally 7.0% in Line & Phoenix would also be vulnerable to falling into
poverty.1 Although rural Gilberts had less incidence of poverty, depth of poverty was estimated
to be high (9.9) as compared to South Tarawa (8.5) and the average poor household in Kiribati
would need to have an increase of about 10 percent or more in its real income to move out of
poverty. The rapid increases in the prices of imported fuel and foods is shown in the retail price
index in mid-2009 being almost 25% above its end 2006 level, alongside the low or zero rate of
economic growth posed the additional pressure to push the already struggling families into
poverty. Price increases, particularly rice and cereal products which feature prominently in the
diets of households in Kiribati posed increasing risk to health and standards of nutrition.2 Depth
of poverty, the amount by which the average poor household falls below the basic needs
poverty line is estimated to be higher in some PICs such as Fiji (11.2) and Federated States of
Micronesia (9.3).
Therefore, as illustrated above, in the Pacific, poverty is becoming increasingly prevalent and the
concern is not only that the vulnerable (or at risk) population who lives just above the poverty
line becomes the new-poor but also that already poor populations are becoming increasingly
poorer and pushed further into the vicious cycle of poverty.
The global economic crisis has seen the Pacific region lose ground in its efforts to reduce
poverty. ADB estimated that an additional 50,000 people in the region will be living below the
poverty line in 2010 because of the crisis.3 In addition to the estimated 18,000 children under
five who die every year in the Pacific region, a further 5,600 Pacific children under five years are
estimated to be likely to die by 2015 if the economic crisis persists.
World of Work Report 2009: The Global Jobs and Crisis Beyond
Affiliation:
ILO, IILS
Location:
World
Time-frame:
2009
Methodology:
Key findings:
 Recent rebounds in world GDP and equity markets should not mask the fact that the crisis
for the world of work is not yet over. Over 20 million jobs have been lost since the onset of
the global crisis. But the real size of the crisis is even larger than these numbers suggest.
 First, there are millions of jobs at-risk. Many enterprises and workers operate on short-time
working schedules, which so far have helped cushion the impact of the crisis to a significant
extent. It is unclear, however, whether these reduced working-time practices can be
1
Kiribati, Analysis of the 2006 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, March 2010, Kiribati NSO and UNDP PC
Kiribati, Analysis of the 2006 Household Income and Expenditure Survey, March 2010, Kiribati NSO and UNDP PC
3
Pacific Economic Monitor, November 2009, ADB
2



sustained for much longer. Based on GDP-employment relationships in previous crises, it is
estimated that at least 5 million additional jobs could be lost if these practices, often
supported by governments, were discontinued.
Second, unless adequate action is taken, nearly 43 million job losers and new entrants could
drop out of the labour market or enter long-term unemployment, aggravating social
hardship and reducing future growth potential.
Third, social protection systems – crucial to support incomes of the innocent victims of the
crisis – have significant gaps. Two-thirds of the countries for which data are available do not
have unemployment benefits. Even in those countries with such schemes, coverage for
jobseekers is often limited. In addition, provisions for social security benefits apply only to
formal wage workers in most countries: only one-third of developing countries have
provisions pertaining to informal sector workers or self-employed workers. Actual social
security coverage is even lower: for example, although legal provisions for informal wage
workers exist in Latin America, only 20 per cent of the workers are effectively covered.
Altogether, experience from earlier crises suggests that employment in high GDP per-capita
countries will not return to pre-crisis levels before 2013 and employment rates
(employment to working-age population ratios) not before 2014. In emerging and
developing countries, employment levels could start recovering from the end of 2010, but
employment rates might not recover in the near term. These trends would exert further
downward pressure on wages, aggravating the risk of depressed consumption and making
recovery fragile. However, if governments move ahead with implementation of the global
Jobs Pact, employment will recover faster and the risks of long-term joblessness and
informality will be reduced. The chapter shows that a continuation of fiscal stimulus, if
better focused on jobs, would reduce employment losses by per cent compared to an early
exit situation. Fiscal spending will temporarily increase public debt but in the medium term
debt will return to pre-crisis levels as growth, supported by job creation, resumes.
Oxfam International Women Workers Pay the Price for the Global Economic Crisis, Oxfam
International Discussion Paper, Bethan Emmett, Oxfam GB, March 2009
Affiliation:
Oxfam International
Location:
China, Thailand, the Philippines, Cambodia, Viet Nam, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka,
Chile, El Salvador, and Nicaragua
Time-frame:
Feb 2009
Methodology:
Structured and unstructured interviews were conducted with women in
global supply chains, union leaders, and women’s organisations in the above
countries to contextualise economic statistics.
Key Findings: This study contextualises economic statistics with human stories of the impact of
the crisis. Preliminary findings show that the crisis is having a devastating impact on their
livelihoods, their rights, and their families. As supply chains are squeezed by falling global
demand, women in export manufacturing are often first to be laid off, with employers leaving
pay outstanding and evading legal obligations to give notice and pay compensation, and
governments turning a blind eye, with devastating knock-on effects.
Horn, Z. H. No Cushion to Fall Back on: The Global Economic Crisis and Informal Workers:
The Global Economic Crisis and Informal workers Synthesis Report March 2008 August 2009
Affiliation:
Women in Informal Employment:
(WIEGO)/Inclusive Cities Project
Globalizing
and
Organizing
Location:
South Africa, Malawi, Peru, Kenya, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, India,
Colombia, Chile
Time-frame:
Jun-July 2009
Methodology:
Focus group discussions, one-on-one interviews with workers, and key informant interviews with MBO staff and organisers were undertaken for 3
groups of informal urban workers: home-based workers, street vendors and
waste pickers. 164 informal workers were interviewed, 79% of which were
women.
Key Findings: The research shows that informal enterprises and informal wage workers are
affected in many of the same ways as formal firms and formal wage workers. Informal workers
suffer directly and indirectly from shrinking consumption and declining demand crucial to their
livelihoods and are often the first to be laid off – before those with formal contracts. However,
unlike some of their formal counterparts, those working informally have no cushion to fall back
on. Respondents reported being forced to overwork, take on additional risks, cut back on
expenditure (including food and health care), and still saw their incomes decline. The evidence
strongly suggests that the global recession is pushing informal workers and their families further
into impoverishment.
Hossain, N., Rashid, M. and Zuberi, N. (2009) The Food and Financial Crises Five Months Later
Affiliation:
BRAC Development Institute and the Institute of Development Studies
Location:
Dhaka, Bangladesh
Time-frame:
Feb-August 2009
Methodology:
Researchers re-visited the Dhaka site in August where they had researched
economic crisis impact in February 2009 with the aim to explore changes in
employment conditions in the export-oriented garment industry and food
and fuel prices in the last five months. During the three day visit, the
researchers conducted formal and impromptu focus group discussions and
interviews and visited homes, markets and community spaces, listening,
verifying prices and observing local conditions.
Key findings: The research found that employment conditions had worsened, with shorter
working hours, no overtime, increased pressure to raise productivity and great uncertainty
among workers. But Kalyanpur people are satisfied that the price of rice has declined to pre2008 levels although high protein foods remain expensive.
Hossain, N., Eyben, R. et al (2009) Accounts of Crisis: Poor People’s Experiences of the Food,
Fuel and Financial Crises in Five Countries, Brighton: IDS
Hossain, N. (2009) Voices of the Poor in the Current Crises, IDS In Focus Policy Briefing 7.3,
Brighton: IDS
Affiliation:
IDS, BRAC, SMERU, University of West Indies, Action Aid Kenya (DFID funded)
Location:
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jamaica, Kenya and Zambia
Time-frame:
February 2009
Methodology:
Rapid qualitative and participatory study of the impacts of the food, fuel and
financial crises on rural and urban poor in developing countries. The paper
aims to test the feasibility of ‘real-time’ participatory tracking of how the
crisis unfolds. As a report based on people’s accounts in ten communities, the
study is limited in its capacity to generalise about what is happening.
Wherever possible in this report, efforts have been made to situate and verify
people’s accounts with reference to other data and within a broader national
context.
Key findings: The research suggests that food prices have not come down everywhere, nor by
enough. Global crises are compounded locally by adverse climate conditions and difficult
political transitions in a number of locations, contributing to uncertainty around agricultural
production and local economic decline. Many people are trying hard to adapt and there is
support from within communities, as well as some valued government and faith-based support.
But many report not being able to make ends meet: managing food, health and educational
needs has been a struggle, and not only for the very poorest.
Hossain, N. (2009) Crime and Social Cohesion in the Time of Crisis: early evidence of wider
Impacts of Food, Fuel and Financial Shocks
Affiliation:
IDS, BRAC, SMERU, University of West Indies, Action Aid Kenya (DFID funded)
Location:
Bangladesh, Indonesia, Jamaica, Kenya and Zambia
Time-frame:
February 2009
Methodology:
Rapid qualitative and participatory study of the impacts of the food, fuel and
financial crises on rural and urban poor in developing countries. The paper
aims to test the feasibility of ‘real-time’ participatory tracking of how the
crisis unfolds. As a report based on people’s accounts in ten communities, the
study is limited in its capacity to generalise about what is happening.
Wherever possible in this report, efforts have been made to situate and verify
people’s accounts with reference to other data and within a broader national
context.
Key findings: This paper examines the impacts of the crises in terms of crime and social
cohesion. The paper discusses local perspectives on how crime and social cohesion have been
affected across ten case study communities involved in the study and identifies a number of
common directions of change categorised broadly as ‘crime’. The research reported incidence of
the selling of unregulated food stuffs, unregulated garment production, illegal gold mining, petty
theft and substance abuse. Social tensions and stresses on policing were also reported.
Al-Kitkat, H. (2009) Consequences of the financial crisis with respect to children in
Egypt presented at the UNICEF-ODI conference 'The global economic crisis - including children
in the policy response' November 9-10, 2009 London, UK
Affiliation:
UNICEF using Egypt’s Information and Decision Support Centre analysis
Location:
Egypt
Time-frame:
May 2008 - May 2009
Methodology:
Survey of approximately 10,000 households conducted every three months.
Key findings: Results indicate increases in the number of poor households, slight decreases in
school enrolment, and increases in children suffering from chronic illnesses.
World Bank (forthcoming) Rapid, qualitative assessments of the impacts of the economic
crisis: Overview of findings from eight countries
Carrie Turk, Andrew Mason (forthcoming) Impacts of the Economic Crisis in East Asia: Findings
from qualitative monitoring in five countries; World Bank
Affiliation:
World Bank; Unicef (Romania); Oxfam (GB in Vietnam); DFID
Location:
Vietnam, Thailand, Cambodia, Lao PDR, Mongolia, Ghana, Romania and
Turkey
Time-frame:
March - June 2009
Methodology:
Participatory poverty assessments which included both group-based exercises
(such as ranking techniques, time-trend/change analyses or card-based
exercises) and individual interviews. Participants in the assessments were not
selected randomly. Both the small size and the sampling process mean that
findings are illustrative rather than representative or generalisable. Country
samples varied between 50 and 508
Key findings:

Labor market shocks, primarily in the form of reduced hours of work and earnings, were
extremely noteworthy in all countries except Lao PDR and Ghana.

There were a variety of changes in migration and remittance patterns. Findings suggest a
range of context-specific behaviors rather than broad trends, however. In particular, there
was no sense that there was a widespread, long-term return of rural-urban migrants to rural
areas.

The assessments found that recent drops in the prices of cashmere and shea nuts were
undermining smallholder livelihoods in Ghana and Mongolia.

In all eight assessments, research teams asked respondents about access to sources of both
formal and informal support. With the exception of Mongolia, respondents in low income
countries had almost no access to formal safety protection mechanisms.

Gender differences in both impacts and coping strategies were noted and were generally
related either to gender differences in interactions in the labor market or to gender-defined
roles within the household. Age was also an important determinant of impact in the labor
market.

Both positive and negative impacts were noted at the community level. There were many
indications of social tension, increased crime levels - particularly petty theft. There were also
many examples of mutual support, however.
World Bank (Forthcoming) Rapid Assessment of the Impacts of the Economic Crisis on
Cambodian Households and Vulnerable Workers’ Income, Consumption and Coping Strategies
Affiliation:
CDI/World Bank
Location:
Cambodia
Time-frame:
May 2009
Methodology:
Participatory poverty assessments which included both group-based
exercises (such as ranking techniques, time-trend/change analyses or cardbased exercises) and individual interviews. Participants in the assessments
were not selected randomly. Both the small size and the sampling process
mean that findings are illustrative rather than representative or
generalisable.
Key findings: This rapid assessment of the impact of the global financial and economic crisis on
poor and vulnerable households in Cambodia makes it clear that households use a number of
strategies to cope with social and economic shocks. As ex ante coping strategies, rural
households try to diversify their income generation activities, for example by raising animals and
increasing the productivity of their land. As ex post coping strategies, only a few poor
households have animals or other assets that they can sell for money to buy food. Poor and
vulnerable households instead reduce the quality (but not quantity, for the most part) of food
consumed and expenditure on items seen as unnecessary. When there is a lack of assets and/or
savings, every member of the household has to work harder to deal with shocks. Poor and
vulnerable households are also increasingly using credit to buy food to cope with food shortage
and reductions in income. This could lead to landlessness or homelessness for many if the
uncertain unemployment situation continues.
World Bank (Forthcoming) A Final Report Second Round Research on Monitoring the Impacts
of the Economic Crisis in Mongolia
Affiliation:
Global Research Center/World Bank
Location:
Mongolia
Time-frame:
May-June 2009
Methodology:
Participatory poverty assessments which included both group-based
exercises (such as ranking techniques, time-trend/change analyses or cardbased exercises) and individual interviews. Participants in the assessments
were not selected randomly. Both the small size and the sampling process
mean that findings are illustrative rather than representative or
generalisable.
Key findings: This rapid assessment of the impact of the global financial and economic crisis on
poor and vulnerable households in Mongolia revisits the country following an initial study. The
assessment shows that although seasonal changes were dominant during this study, there is still
some evidence of economic slowdown among small businesses, tourism related businesses and
traders as well as self employed people.
Macro Analysis
This section of papers contains research that uses macro data to describe and predict the
impacts of the financial crisis on various communities and economies.
Sanket Mohapatra and Dilip Ratha Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Migration and
Remittances
Affiliation:
World Bank February 2010 Poverty Reduction and Economic Management
Network (PREM)
Location:
Global
Time Frame:
2009
Methodology:
Review of 2008 official global remittance figures
Key findings: Remittances to developing countries are estimated to have declined by 6.1
percent in 2009 as a result of weak job markets in major destination countries. Although new
migration has fallen, it is still positive. The stock of international migrants, therefore, has
continued to grow and remittances have remained resilient. Going forward, remittance flows to
Latin America are expected to recover, whereas those to East Asia and South Asia are likely to
slow. Policy responses should involve efforts to facilitate migration and remittances to make
these flows cheaper, safer, and more productive for both the sending and the receiving
countries.
Shaohua Chen and Martin Ravallion; The impact of the global financial crisis on the world’s
poorest (2009)
Affiliation:
World Bank
Location:
N/A
Time Frame:
2009
Key findings: This column estimates that the crisis will add 64 million people to the population
living under $2 a day. It predicts that the global poverty rate will fall from 42% to 39% in 2009,
while the pre-crisis trajectory would have brought the poverty rate down to 38%.
Martin Ravallion; The Crisis and the World’s Poorest from Development Outreach: Growing
out of Crisis (World Bank)
Affiliation:
World Bank
Location:
N/A
Time Frame:
Dec ‘09
Key findings: Applying country-specific growth projections to survey-based data and aggregating
them, this paper estimates that the crisis will increase the 2009 count of people living below
$1.25 a day by 50 million.4 More than half of this increase is expected to be in South Asia;
10million will be added to the poverty count in East Asia and 7 million in Sub-Saharan Africa.
Another 64 million will be added to the number of people living under $2 a day. Given the
current growth projections for 2010, there will be a further increase in poverty in that year, with
a cumulative increase of 89 million people living under $1.25 a day and 120 million more under
$2 a day by 2010.
Food Price Watch Poverty Reduction and Economic Management (PREM) Network
Affiliation:
World Bank
Location:
N/A
Time Frame:
Jan-Dec 2009
Key findings: While the global focus on food prices has waned, domestic staple food prices in
several countries have experienced double digit increases in 2009, particularly in Sub-Saharan
Africa. We highlight countries where such increases are most significant and estimate that the
impact on undernourishment, or hunger, has been as much as 8% in 2009.
The Implications of the Global Financial Crisis for Low-Income Countries
Affiliation:
International Monetary Fund
Location:
N/A
Time Frame:
March 2009
Key Findings:

The financial crisis is projected to increase the financing needs of LICs by at least US$25
billion in 2009, and much larger needs are possible. Twenty-six LICs appear particularly
vulnerable to the unfolding crisis. IMF financing to LICs has already increased significantly;
new financing arrangements jumped from 5 in 2007 to 23 in 2008, representing an increase
in total disbursements from US$0.6 billion to US$5.4 billion.

The global economy is in the midst of a deep downturn as an adverse feedback loop
between the real and financial sectors is taking its toll both in advanced and in emerging and
developing countries. As a result, commodity prices are unlikely to recover in the short run.

The global financial crisis is expected to have a severe impact on growth and external
stability in many LICs. At the same time, inflationary pressures are receding in most
countries. The crisis follows the commodity price shocks of 2007–08, putting at risk an
extended period of improved macroeconomic policies and performance through mid-2007

The direct impact of the global financial crisis on LICs will be stronger for countries with a
higher degree of financial integration. For most, this channel has played a limited role so far,
though strains are starting to appear. But, the slowdown in global growth will reduce trade,
remittances, foreign direct investment, and, possibly, aid, and these factors will have a
major impact on LICs, including second-round effects on the financial sector.

Fiscal vulnerabilities are emerging as revenues decline, pressures on spending increase, and
financing conditions deteriorate. The crisis will aggravate risks of debt distress in vulnerable
countries.
Impact of the Global Financial Crisis on Sub-Saharan Africa
Affiliation:
International Monetary Fund (African Department)
Location:
Africa
Time Frame:
March 2009
Key Findings: The downturn in global growth, the decline in most commodity prices, and tighter
credit have significantly worsened the economic outlook for sub-Saharan Africa. Risks are rising
and it is uncertain how long the crisis will last. Policy makers must walk a tightrope between not
aggravating the shock in aggregate demand on the one hand, while protecting hard-won gains in
economic fundamentals on the other. Any policy response must also take into account the
impact on the poor and seek to incorporate social safety nets. Countries that do not have debt
sustainability and financing constraints may have some scope for fiscal easing. But it is also clear
that countries will depend critically on donors honouring their commitments to aid and even
increasing aid, despite new competing demands on their own budgets.
The global financial crisis: impact, responses and way forward Meeting of the Committee of
Experts of the 2nd Joint Annual Meetings of the AU Conference of Ministers of Economy and
Finance and ECA Conference of Ministers of Finance, Planning and Economic Development
Affiliation:
UN ECA and AU
Location:
Africa
Time Frame:
June 2009
Key Findings:
 Stock market volatility has increased since the onset of the crisis and wealth losses have
been observed in the major stock exchanges.
 So far, bank failures have been rare in the region, largely because most African banks do not
have any significant exposure to the sub-prime mortgage market and asset backed
securities.
 The foreign exchange markets of African countries have been under enormous pressure


since the onset of the crisis.
There has been a significant decline in the prices of key commodities exported by African
countries since the second half of 2008.
The volume of exports by African countries has also declined because of the financial crisis.
The growth of Africa’s exports in real terms fell from 4.5 per cent in 2007 to 3 per cent in
2008.
Neil McCulloch, Amit Grover; Estimating the national impact of the financial crisis in Indonesia
by combining a rapid qualitative study with nationally representative surveys
Affiliation:
Institute of Development Studies
Location:
Indonesia
Time Frame:
2009
Methodology:
This paper draws on a rapid qualitative assessment of the impact of the
financial crisis in Indonesia, to generate hypotheses about the potential
national impacts. These hypotheses are tested using nationally
representative labor force surveys from before and after the onset of the
financial crisis.
Key findings: Indonesia weathered the storm rather well: there is no evidence for increased
school drop out; labor force participation fell, particularly for young workers, whilst
unemployment rose for the young, but fell for workers over 25. The changes for female workers
were the same as those for male workers and there do not appear to have been any major
sectoral shifts in labor. Surprisingly, real wages for employees rose significantly during the crisis
period, although those in the informal sector did not benefit to the same extent. The results are
similar to those from the earlier qualitative study, except that, because it focused on areas
harder hit by the crisis, the qualitative study did not observe the significant gains made by
employees over the crisis period.